Massive Restructuring of Global Power Dynamics Post-Afghanistan Collapse

 America’s chaotic retreat from Afghanistan has changed the global landscape and hastened restructuring of new alignments. America’s unilateral troop withdrawal as opposed to attack on Afghanistan two decades with support of the coalition forces has undermined its ability to carry on along its allies. In an attempt to resurrect the trans-Atlantic partnership that took a hit under Trump, President Biden pledged to renew America’s commitments towards its allies. Driving home the message of America’s renewed interest to engage with its allies, Biden asserted its transatlantic partners an era of cooperation at the G-7 Summit and the NATO summit in June.

To reduce dependency on the US, NATO began to hedge bets on China but quickly arrived at a consensus that it is a ‘destabilising force and a systemic challenge’. China’s retaliatory sanctions on EU academics, Parliamentarians intensified the Sino-skepticism, the diplomatic spat with Lithuania and denial of port call to a German warship just two days back vindicated its stand.

America’s Afghan policy perceived as an inward turn provided impetus for strategic autonomy calls in Europe.  Even the clamor for comprehensive decoupling form the US was on cards. But for decades, the EU ever reluctant to make fresh fund allocations for security and defence relied on the US. In the aftermath of fall of Kabul, European forces sought American help for keeping Kabul airport open for evacuations.

While the US and Europe continue to cooperate due to commonalties in strategic interests, US’s embarrassing retreat shaped a new perception that Washington can’t reclaim its position as a leading power.

America’s trans-Atlantic partnership is rested on the fulcrum of security. Though security is vital, Europe is currently facing a slew of global challenges. In lieu of these challenges EU chartered out a new road map, ‘Strategic Compass’ exploring the possibilities of diversifying relationships with various countries.

In the aftermath of Afghanistan collapse and Taliban’s return, the World was left gasping at the concomitant resurgence of violence and massacre. Suicidal bomb attacks at the Kabul airport, even before the deadline of evacuations, exemplified America’s failure to deliver on the primal objective of its Afghanistan mission- countering terrorism. Hypothecating its value system and edicts at the altar of Taliban in return for a limited gain of no attacks on its forces, America retreated. This abject surrender battered the moral high ground which America holds.

For long, US operated with countries based on an alliance system. But America’s reckless abandonment of Afghanistan, throwing the interests of regional partners to wind, have raised fresh doubts about the credibility of US partnership. Trump’s transactional partnership seeded skepticism towards US.

Wary of territorial security in the face of Chinese belligerence, America’s allies in the region began to explore interest-based coalitions. India- Italy-Japan trilateral kicked off in June setting pace for the India-France-Japan collaboration. Maritime security concerns propelled new trilaterals like India-France-Australia and India-Indonesia-Australia.

Genesis of the ‘interest-based coalitions’ sans America has become new paradigm in the Indo-Pacific region, a geographical construct which Trump has bolstered in the face of Chinese unabated aggression. Another noteworthy trilateral that emerged with economic cooperation as its cornerstone has been Resilient Supply Chain Initiative (RSCI) partnered by India, Japan and Australia. The new coalitions rooted in mutual interests devoid of the US and China which are at loggerheads have diligently reinforced multipolarity.

Pursuing Trump’s Indo-Pacific policy, Biden held the first ever virtual summit of Quad leaders asserting America’s interest in the region and affirmed commitment to FOIP (Free, Open Indo-Pacific). Indeed, citing challenges posed by China in the Indo-Pacific region, Biden defended the expeditious pull out from Afghanistan.

Instead of adopting a firm stand, Biden held a telephonic conversation with President Xi on Climate change cooperation at a time when Taiwan was threatened of dangerous repercussions if it changes the name of DC office. Xi in turn spurned Biden’s summit offer and demanded US to soften its China policy.

To salvage its image as a credible partner committed to the security, Biden announced a trilateral security cooperation, AUKUS agreement with Australia, UK and US. This Indo- Pacific grouping aims to supporting each other’s defence and security interests through “fostering deeper integration of security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases and supply chains”. Under this defence agreement, the US and UK will provide technology to Australia to build nuclear submarines to augment its defence capabilities. The underground stealth technology will hugely enhance Australia’s capabilities to counter China.

However, this ended up puncturing holes in the already tenuous US trans-Atlantic partnership with France, accusing Biden of “stab in the back”. In 2016, France and Australia signed an agreement termed as ‘deal of the century’ to build diesel submarines. With the deal likely to be scrapped, France is livid over US betrayal.

Making no secret of its anger, Paris cancelled gala celebrations in Washington, pulled back its envoy and contemplating even a legal action. Other US allies- Canada, New Zealand has expressed their dissent. Shortly, European Commission and the High representative adopted joint commission for cooperation in Indo-Pacific proposing economic, trade, connectivity, green-alliance and digital cooperation with countries in the region which included India, South Korea, Japan, ASEAN, African, Caribbean and Pacific countries. The US didn’t feature in the list. EU even announced Global Gateway as a counter to China’s BRI.

AUKUS agreement elicited mixed response in India. A section opined AUKUS unveiled to advance American interests which would weaken the Quad and hurt India.  While other reasoned that Quad was never a military alliance and trilateral defence agreement would have no bearing on its salience.

Unwittingly, AUKUS triggered an interesting debate with a predominant perception- Wary of India becoming a regional superpower, the US has always preferred to keep it under check. Washington never bothered to sanction or withhold financial assistance to Pakistan despite India’s repeated exhortations. Washington’s retreat from Afghanistan without a plan B, disregarding the massive security challenges of a Af-Pak-China nexus, has compounded security challenges for India.

 A disputatious China has prompted India, which was on the sidelines of the global power dynamics, to take an active role. India is the most vital component of the Quad and an indispensable partner in the Indo-Pacific for democratic countries. India has always defended its interests and would continue to do so. In pursuit of becoming a responsible power, deftly asserting its strategic autonomy, India is diversifying its relations with a multitude of partners and has championed interest-based coalitions to take on hegemonistic China.

Despite America’s assurances to its allies and partners that it would continue to invest in its relations, reliability issue and this tendency to exercise unilateral decisions is bound to plague America’s strategic partnerships. As opposed to the US, given the centrality of India to Indo-Pacific and its refusal to cower down under Chinese pressure, countries are now seeking to partner with New Delhi. Super power dominated coalitions are now a passe and the US feckless abandon is vindicating allies’ worst fears.

Afghanistan and Indo-Pacific region currently stand out as the major strategic geographic regions of contestations and China is a major element in both of them. Advocating for a free, open Indo-Pacific and a rules-based order, the US represented a democratic World order. With this haphazard pullback, US has already ceded Afghanistan and struggling to consolidate its partnerships in Indo-Pacific.

Challenging the unilateralism of the US and the value system it advocates, defending terror at global platforms and allying with totalitarian regimes, Beijing represented a contrasting World order. Rightly so, even before the World could come to terms with an Afghanistan ruled by UN designated terrorists, consolidating its strategic depth in the region, Beijing lent credence to the regime.

Pledging $31 million to Taliban, China sought international assistance. Pakistan the architect of Taliban quickly rushed aid and endorsed the interim regime instituted by the ISI chief Faiz Hameed. Legitimizing the terror regime in Afghanistan, Pakistan and China have formally underpinned the consolidation of Sino-Islamist nexus and reaffirmed, “power comes from the barrel of the gun”.

Writing off concerns of Taliban government in Afghanistan, becoming a magnet for global terror networks, China and Pakistan legitimized the terror regime. While the Afghanistan issue consumed the World, sensing a strategic opportunity China turned the already tense South China Sea into a hot zone by unveiling a new maritime law mandating every vessel transiting its territorial waters to furnish all the details. Laying claims to 90% of SCS, China has turned SCS into a China lake.

Reports of Chinese submarine sightings near Japanese territorial waters, scrambling of jets over Taiwan have laid out bare China’s egregious expansionist ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region. While the US struggles to focus on Indo-Pacific, bolstering its clout, China is building a coalition under the veneer of Afghanistan reconstruction.

Hours after AUKUS agreement, as a huge message to the US, the foreign ministers of China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran met along the sidelines of SCO at Dushanbe and agreed to hold meetings at ambassadorial level to continue coordination on Afghanistan. Inducting Iran into SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and inviting Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt as observers, Beijing is making the best out of the US’s decision to pull out its defence systems from Riyadh.

Undoubtedly, the Sino-US strategic rivalry spurred a massive restructuring of coalitions and altered the power dynamics. Unlike America’s security and military alliances, China has entwined countries with deep economic interdependence. Rightly so, while US unveiled AUKUS, focused on increasing its clout, China applied to join CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership), the third largest trading bloc.

Unlike the cold war years, the great power game is rested on several subliminal aspects. To up the game and counter the imperialistic and expansionist tendencies inordinately fuelling mistrust and prolonged tensions, countries have to now reimagine and reinvent new alignments for a safe, secure and peaceful world.

 

@ Copyrights reserved.