India won the battle in Maldives, but the war is far from over

In line with current electoral verdicts where incumbent governments were voted out of power in South Asian countries -Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan and Bhutan, Maldives resolutely voted out the authoritarian President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom. The opposition allies under the leadership of Ibrahim Mohammed Solih of Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) romped home victory registering an unassailable lead of 58.1% in elections with a voter turnout of 89.22%. As per ground reports the voting time was extended for three hours as people queued to exercise their democratic exercise. 

The Indian Ocean Archipelago ~700 kilometres from Indian peninsula has turned into seat of geopolitical contest between India and China with the island nation increasingly gravitating towards China since 2013. Much to the detriment of “India First Policy”, traditionally followed by Maldives, Yameen shifted gears and steadily steered the archipelago towards radical Islamism and acceded to Belt Road Initiative (BRI) of China. Cumulatively the island aside slipping into a debt trap gradually lost its syncretic culture owing to its deep ties with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Compounding the gradual erosion of unique democratic identity of the nation, in February, Yameen imposed emergency, stalled functioning of Parliament, imprisoned former President and Supreme Court judges after the court challenged his decision of jailing former President Nasheed by slapping charges of terrorism. This steadily decline of the domestic law and order situation and unrestrained authoritarianism of Yameen perturbed India. Gradually, Yameen tightened his grip over governance and forced election commission to bar opposition leaders from contesting elections. Hence a resounding defeat of Yameen in elections has been moment of surprise and celebration.

India heaved a sigh of relief as the first results just trickled in. Since February, bilateral ties deteriorated perceptibly. Maldives snubbed India by refusing to participate in the mega military exercise, Milan after India called for release of political prisoners and restoration of democratic process in Maldives.  In June Maldives asked India to take back two Indian Navy’s Advanced Light Helicopters stationed in atolls Laamu and Addu. The government refused to renew visas of 26 navy personnel. Hundreds of Indian citizens who were offered jobs by Maldivian employers couldn’t receive work permits since February. During the same period, Yameen joined the Belt and Road Initiative signed a free trade agreement with China and in August Yameen celebrated the inauguration of Maldives-China Friendship bridge with lot of pomp and show. At the height of constitutional crisis, Chinese mouth-piece The Global Times warned India to refrain from any military intervention. Shortly, eleven Chinese vessels entered Eastern Indian Ocean under the garb of protecting Chinese interests in the island. China which didn’t have even an embassy till 2011 muscled into Maldives which lies along the strategically important trading routes and eventually turned made the Island a formidable part of its string of pearls strategy to surround India.

China’s steady penetration into India’s sphere of influence and immediate neighbourhood raised severe concerns. Strategists strongly criticised the present regime for failing to halt China’s burgeoning strategic spread in the sub-continent. They termed that India’s ineptness or rather a “policy failure” facilitated China’s creepy penetration. India was irrevocably miffed by Yameen’s decision of detaining opposition leaders and crackdown on the protests. Gradual deterioration of law and order irked India, despite gang-ho India being the traditional security provider resisted a “military intervention” recommended by strategists. Despite all odds, India maintained strategic patience which seems to have bore fruits culminating in blossoming of a pro-Indian leadership in the island.

Elated by the elections results, without waiting for Election commission’s declaration, Ministry of External Affairs released a press note stating, “We welcome the successful completion of the third presidential election process in the Maldives which, according to the preliminary information, Mr. Ibrahim Mohamed Salih won. We heartily congratulate Mohamed Solih on his victory and hope that the Election Commission will officially confirm the result at the earliest. This election not only marks triumph of democratic forces in the Maldives, but also reflects firm commitment to the values of democracy and rule of law. In keeping with our, “Neighbourhood First” policy, India looks forward to working closely with the Maldives in further deepening our partnership”. India and the US were among the first few countries to congratulate Maldives. In the meanwhile, Yameen’s long drawn silence before conceding defeat created some panic. A surprise-stricken China congratulated Maldives a day later saying, “we hope the Maldives will maintain consistency and stability of their policy and create an enabling environment and atmosphere for the Chinese operation there”.

Days before elections, Transparency Maldives expressed fears of having a free and fair and electoral process. The results indicated elections weren’t rigged instilling new confidence about islands faith in democratic process which marked second consecutive peaceful power transition. Like recent elections in Sri Lanka and Malaysia poll plank in Maldives has been rising Chinese debt. Within few years of strengthening ties with China Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Maldives are staring at the prospect of debt trap. Aside slew of investments, the island awash with relentless waves of Chinese tourists and workers is raising suspicions among Maldivians about Beijing’s intentions. Ubiquitous Chinese presence in infrastructure, energy and trade sectors is emanating new fears among policy makers who were growing wary of China setting a debt-trap akin to Sri Lanka.  Indeed, Solih rode to power on the promise of reviewing Chinese deals and resetting ties with India.

Though ouster of pro-China Yameen is truly welcoming for India, Maldives might may find it difficult to wean away from China completely. President Sirisena, who took over reigns promised to renegotiate Chinese investments but ended up in making more concessions and handing out Hambantota port on a 99-year lease. In contrast, Mahathir Mohammed of Malaysia cancelled two projects worth $22 billion and launched investigations against Najib for making concessions to China. Mahathir managed to pull out Malaysia from falling into debt trap for time being. But reiterated that Malaysia would continue to maintain strong trade ties with China. Maldivian tourism-based economy currently owes $1.3billion in loans to China which is over 25% of its GDP or 70% of its total debt. Majority of its revenue proceeds are lost in servicing Chinese debt. According to some reports, Maldives agreed to lease uninhabited island Feydhoo Finolhu for tourism for 50 years to China. With free trade agreement in place, Maldives has strangulated itself in Chinese clutches. Though nations are roiled by Chinese debt none of them can ever severe ties with China which is now too big to ignore.

Unlike in the past, countries in India’s immediate vicinity afflicted by small country syndrome began playing Indian card against China and vice-versa.  Smaller countries are right in their own way in anticipating some gains from Chinese investments and subsequent alignment. But a modicum of discretion and an iota of pragmatic analysis of ambitious Chinese outreach which comes with strings attached can help them in long run. China had a free run in Maldives under Yameen who felt emboldened by Beijing’s indifference to his ruthless crackdown of judiciary, censoring press and democratic institutions. Till now, China has been strategically investing in vulnerable economies and authoritarian regimes to strengthen its stranglehold. Investments in Maldives testimonies China’s prodigious approach of ensnaring countries with opaque investment policies.

Maldivian election has infused new hope about vibrancy of democracy, despite apprehensions of rigging by pro-Chinese lobby, the surprise outcome erased all doubts. Due to weak institutional frame works in Asian countries, international community has apprehensions about restoration of full democracy in this part of World. But the recent spree of free and fair elections reflects new zeal of people to overthrow authoritarian regimes with the power of ballot.

China in its congratulatory message surmised, “China has always encouraged Chinese companies to invest in and operate in the Maldives in accordance with market principles, to play a positive role the Maldives socio-economic development” reiterating its continued interest. Having expanded its strategic foothold in Maldives steadily, China will try every trick in the book to woo the President-elect Solih. In July to mollify Sri Lanka when the queer pitch of China funding Rajapaksha roared across the international media, China gifted Sirisena $2 billion Yuan ($295 million) to use for any project of his choice. Beijing even pledged to construct South Asia’s largest kidney hospital in Sirisena’s home province Polonnaruwa. Ecstatic Sirisena immediately handed over the proposal of building houses to all electorates in the country to China. Beijing has mastered the art of hammering out differences by offering dollops of grants. Given Yameen’s reluctance to concede defeat there is no guarantee that he would smoothly hand over power.

China’s overriding influence over India’s traditional sphere of influence should be a wakeup call for India. Relinquishing conventional complacence, India must re-energise bilateral links and extricate Maldives from debt trap by extending interest -free loans to repay China. New Delhi should assist Maldives in strengthening democratic institutions. Yameen cultivated strong ties with Islamist radical outfits of Saudi Arabia that exported Wahhabi/Salafist ideology to the island. Soon sprawling mosques across the archipelago pushed Maldivians towards an intolerant version of Islam. Consequently, Maldives now boasts of highest number of foreign fighter per capita. Some of the radicalised Maldivian fighters were arrested in Kerala. In recent elections, Yameen chose Mohammed Shaheem Ali Saeed of Jamiyyath Salaf, extremist organisation that destroyed priceless Buddhist and Hindu artefacts. Even Pakistan’s influence on Maldivian security forces is increasing. Considering the strategic geographical location of Maldives and its proximity, any assault on democracy or increased political leverage of China could pose direct threat to peace, security and stability of the entire region. In lieu of these strategic implications, India should adopt no-holds barred approach in deepening ties with Maldives.

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US-China Trade War is here to stay

Dumping Deng Xiaoping’s doctrine of “hide your strength, bide your time”, President Xi Jingping adopted an assertive mode which over time has transmogrified into confrontational approach. In reply to President Trump’s fresh round of 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth Chinese imports, China has announced new tariffs on $60 billion US goods. This tit-for-tat move of China, uncharacteristic of its state craft surprised business strategists and business pundits. Since opening of its economy 40 years ago, China having emerged as economic behemoth with its coercive policies is now second largest economy.

The premise of Trump’s uncompromising trade war stems from his deep belief that China’s unfair trade practices which includes violation of intellectual property rights, forced technology transfers and increased CCP’s (China Communist Party) intervention in MNCs functioning is hampering the competitiveness of American companies. Though President Obama lambasted China for its unfair trade practices in 2014, never initiated tough trade practices. US-China trade engagements prospered. From the beginning, Trump made no bones about his intentions to narrow the ballooning trade deficit with China. He advocated a muscular approach. Though America has openly expressed its disappointment with Chinese practices, Beijing hardly changed its ways. US Chamber of Commerce which believed that trade war is an inappropriate tool urged Trump administration to stay away from it. With trade dialogues calling for liberalisation of Chinese markets failed, trade war ensued. Having embraced “America First” doctrine and resolutely defended his protectionist approach to uphold American interests.

Several countries affected by Trump’s protectionist measures including America’s traditional allies, Latin American countries and India began silently resolving the crisis by holding talks with American representatives. China’s intransigence to trade talks with America is rather baffling. This certainly has cemented World’s perception of China’s growing arrogance and hubris. It is two months since trade wars there is no respite in sight. In the meanwhile, US is in talks with EU and Japan for pursuing action against China at World Trade Organisation (WTO) accusing China of taking advantage of its rules. Unabated trade war is now creating a vicious backlash within the US. Industrialists have already appealed to US Trade Representative to stop any further escalation as business of small and medium enterprises are impacted. While business in both countries are suffering, it is believed that US is trying to its import from other countries. Trump has signed free trade agreement with South Korea to export pharmaceuticals, automobiles and agriculture products. This move is believed to largely alleviate distress of American farmers affected by China’s tariffs.

The past two months of trade tariff wars is unravelling Chinese economy with over 7% of European companies in China have either moved out or planning to move out of China to South East Asian countries like Vietnam and Philippines to evade tariffs. While companies indicated that China could tide over this situation by opening economy and removing market access barriers Beijing hardly evinced any interest in bringing about economic reforms. As a result, investment front is taking the beating. Unlike developed countries like US, Japan, Germany where investments accounts for 20-25% of GDP, it is 44% for China. Investments flows touched a new low in August. Unlike in the past, China is unable to spend public money to stimulate economy. China debts which were under control even during the 2008 economic recession have suddenly bloated after its spent $1.88 trillion in 2016 to boost economy. Ever since, debt has steadily increased and as per Institute of International Finance, China’s debt-GDP ratio is 300%. IMF has indeed issued an alert to China to curtail lending. Since April, Chinese government has imposed restrains on lending. With trade war intensifying the cracks in the economy are widening. Economy has slowed down, thousands of jobs are lost, domestic demand fell, and production costs escalated.

In the process, even three-fourths of American companies operating in China are taking this hit.  But Trump administration contends that a limping Chinese economy might bring back manufacturing to America, one of the purported objectives of the trade war. While this seems to be far from reality as of now, the trade war is steadily expanding to many frontiers. Trump’s approach towards China is now gaining bipartisan support and American think-tanks, officials who began openly criticising China’s human rights violation, belligerence in South China sea, blatant infringement of Intellectual rights. America now alleges that China is directly influencing US politics before midterm elections. Trump took to twitter saying, “China is actively trying to impact and change our election by attacking our farmers, ranchers and industrial workers because of their loyalty to me”. Earlier John Bolton, National Security Advisor accused China of interfering US political process and soon the US Justice Department ordered Chinese state-owned media outlets are foreign agents. He disclosed that China carried out cyberattacks and stole records of over 22.1 million records of American government officials. Taking stock of Chinese operations in America, through the United Front Work Department (UFWD), Washington lashed out at China for penetrating Universities through Chinese Diaspora and influencing the political elite of the US.

In the meanwhile, China began to portray Trump as a hawkish leader obstructing economic growth of China through trade and investment restrictions and thus curtailing its rise as World Power. Trump is using this propaganda to boost his image as unyielding President and energising his electoral base for the upcoming mid-term elections in November. In its past two encounters with President Trump, China managed to have a way with him. After President Trump received a congratulatory call from President Tsai Ing-wen, China expressed its severe indignation, termed it as breach of protocol and extracted promised from America to honour “One China Policy”. Though Trump hadn’t publicly acceded to this request, he didn’t refuse to abide by it either. Trump issued notices to ban on ZTE in America for illegally selling technology to North Korea and Iran defying its sanctions, President Xi personally reached out to Trump forcing him to reverse his decision. Despite being a dominant power America gave in anticipating China’s cooperation towards denuclearisation of North Korea. Going by this precedent of Trump making some concessions, China expects America to blink first.

But much to the dismay of China’s unrealistic dreams having embarked on an escalatory stride, Trump is no mood for a reconciliation. Unlike earlier regimes, which avoided confrontations despite China’s malevolent intentions, America announced fresh sanctions on China’s Equipment Development Department (EDD) for purchasing arms and weapons from Russia under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act). In retaliation, China summoned US ambassador and cancelled military talks between Joint staff departments of both countries. For long successive American leaderships grossly misread Chinese intentions and evaded adopting a tough Chinese policy for a fear of backlash from its constituencies. Trump seems to have overcome this decadent hesitation. Despite appeals from Strategists, who argue that America shouldn’t over react to Chinese ascent and resist from indulging in new kind of Cold war, mutual escalation is here to stay.

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India, Russia explore new areas of cooperation to enhance strategic partnership

In the run up to 19^th India-Russia Annual Summit to be held in New Delhi on Oct 5^th, Dr. Shyama Prasad Mukherjee Research Foundation (SPMRF) and Russia International Affairs Council (RIAC) jointly organised a two-day conference on 13^th September to discuss various challenges and lay ground for enhancing strategic bilateral ties. Around the same time, Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj attended the 23^rd edition of Indo-Russian Inter-Governmental Commission (IRIGC) on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technical and Cultural cooperation at Moscow to review bilateral ties. Russia is the only country with which India has such a comprehensive governmental mechanism. The conference “India-Russia in the 21^st century: Enhancing the special privileged strategic partnership” is SPMRF’s maiden attempt to laid firm ground for exploring new areas of cooperation between the two countries. The event which comes days after India and US ratcheted defence partnership through inking of COMCASA, has provided a platform for reorienting longstanding Indo-Russian relations. The power-packed conference comprised sessions on various aspects ranging from strategic affairs, connectivity, defence cooperation, trade and investments and dived into area of Indology for vital soft power deployment.

Welcoming the delegates, director of the Nehru National Memorial Museum and Library (NNML), Shakti Sinha mooted idea of deepening bilateral trade and economic cooperation by expanding connectivity corridors and payment in national currencies, an age-old trade practice. In his key note address, Ambassador of Russian Federation Ivashentsov provided an overview of the Indo-Russian relations that withstood test of time and reminded that both countries still face similar kind of challenges in Chechnya and Kashmir respectively. He called for open and extensive trilateral cooperation under RIC (Russia India China) arrangement and sought concerted attempts in bringing reforms in international financial institutes, energy regimes in Eurasia, climate change pacts. Countries should work in tandem in areas of convergence like countering double standards on human rights, refuting unilateral economic sanctions, resisting burgeoning protectionism, peaceful use of nuclear reactors and cooperation in cyber security.

Inaugurating the meet, Minister of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Skill Development and Entrepreneurship, Dharmendra Pradhan said, “I believe that our time-tested relationship has no expiry date. Russia will always be a priority in India’s foreign policy and our countries will remain as a role model for global communities”. Indian PSUs have invested $15 billion till now in Russian oil companies and gas projects like Sakhalin-1 in Far East Russia in 2001. Steady rise of hydrocarbon demands culminated in building a “Energy Bridge” furthering bilateral ties. He reminded that Indo-Russian energy cooperation dates to 1960 and 1970s when India used Soviet Technology for refining oil from Bombay High in Arabian Sea.  At the height of global uncertainty in energy markets, India having chosen to comply with Paris Agreement, pivoted towards natural gas. To have uninterrupted gas supplies, India diversified its LNG supplies. GAIL struck a deal with Russia’s Gazprom for gas supplies. India received first gas shipment at Dahej LNG terminal Gujarat in March. Currently India is using Russia’s “low frequency seismic technology” of gas extraction in Gujarat fields. By consequence energy cooperation has become a durable pillar of bilateral cooperation.

Opening the session on expanding strategic relations between India and Russia, Dr Bibek Debroy, Chairman, Economic Advisory Council indicated that trade and cross border investments are intricately related. Countries must employ the soft power drivers like encouraging people to people movement and cultural relations to infuse trust in bilateral ties. Dr. Sudhir Kumar Mishra, Director-General (BrahMos) highlighted the phenomenal success of BrahMos project that stands testimony to Indo-Russian defence cooperation. In 1998, India and Russia formed a Joint Venture for development of fastest cruise missile with process stock developed in both countries. India had intergovernmental agreement with Russia for integrated Guided Missile Program (IGMP) instrumental in development of missiles like Nag, Akash and Agni. BrahMos which was initially conceived as anti-ship missile can now be launched from submarine, ship, land and aircraft. India invested $300 million towards development of supersonic missile accruing $10 billion returns. Mishra suggested India must replicate the most lucrative BrahMos business model. Later Dipanjan Roy Chaudhary of The Economic Times mulled at the prospect of India developing trade ties with the Eurasian Economic Union.

Encouraged by the success of Kudankulam nuclear reactors, Andrey Shevlyakov, CEO of Rosatom suggested India to use nuclear technology for border security management. He hailed Indo-Russian bilateral nuclear cooperation and welcomed trilateral nuclear agreement between India, Russia and Bangladesh towards development of nuclear reactor at Ropar, Bangladesh. Mulling over the prospects of India expanding strategic relations with Russia in Arctic Region, Uttam Sinha, Senior Fellow, NNML, suggested that India should join Russia’s oil expedition projects in Arctic region. Since India which is part of 1920 Svalbard treaty as Dominion under the British Kingdom has a right to engage in commercial activity. In 2013, India has become observer member of Arctic and having set up a station Himadri at Svalbard Norway, India is keen on making its entry into Artic region. A partnership with Russia can augur well for India’s interests.

Stressing the need for synergistic scientific cooperation, Prof Vijay Raghavan, Principal Scientific Advisor suggested a three-pronged approach for strengthening scientific cooperation. It includes strategic cooperation, building Major Mission Project for Deep Ocean Human Occupied Submersible and student exchange. Russia has excelled the area of deep ocean explorations and a major mission can thus be mutually beneficial. Russia is way ahead of its peers in the fields of mathematics, statistics and computers and India must explore the possibilities of signing MoUs in these fields for greater collaboration.

Chairing a session on “Role of Indology in India-Russia Strategic Partnership”, Dr. Anirban Ganguly, director of SPMRF indicated the ongoing effort is an exercise to explore and rediscover centuries old Indo-Russian connect to infuse more trust in the relationship. This event is indeed a follow-up of “Third International Conference of Indologists” held at St Petersburg State University in April that instilled new optimism in the oft neglected Indology studies. Scholars Larisa Surgina, Russian curator of the International Roerich Memorial Trust, Achala Moulik Pushkin prize awardee and Neelakshi Suryanarayan highlighted the ties between India and Soviet Union right from the times of first Russian traveller to India Afanasy Nikitin in 1466. They enumerated Russian studies in India, its challenges and prospects. A new enthusiasm in pursuing understudied parts of Indo-Russian connect and including culture and soft power towards fostering strategic partnership is truly unique.

Going by the US canonical definition of Indo-Pacific which refers to Eastern Pacific Ocean Asoke Mukerji, India’s former permanent representative to UN laid out a frame work for Indo-Russian cooperation in four thrust areas. These include utilisation of Chennai-Valdivostok maritime corridor which can bring down transit time to 24 days, creating business links through which India can directly access the raw diamonds in Russia, agriculture cooperation in Russia’s Far-East whereby Indian farmers can cultivate in Russian lands and participation of Small and Medium Enterprises in 16 identified sectors for cooperation with investments routed through AIIB (Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank). He indicated India and Russia can work together in the geopolitically turbulent Western Indo-Pacific region. Russia can fill strategic gap in the region in securing Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) and ensuring safe passage of over $266 billion trade flows through the Bal al Mandeb, Straits of Hormuz through structured maritime cooperation. Countries can deepen counter terrorism cooperation against the militants emanating from the Af-Pak hot spots to protect the Middle East and other countries, work towards expanding and building connectivity projects, blue economy cooperation in tourism and sustainable fisheries and instituting strategic dialogue on stability of Western Indo-Pacific.

Building on the strategic insights provided by Asoke Mukerji, Nandan Unnikrishnan of ORF reinforced need for expediting International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC). He opined that Indo-Pacific can merge with Eurasian land mass abutting Europe and countries can effectively develop connectively networks that till ASEAN for seamless transit of goods. Also, countries should prospect on potentially work together with Iran. Iran is vital for India’s engagement with central Asian countries and Eurasian region and indispensable link in INSTC. Concerted efforts towards making INSTC operational can be beneficial to a spectrum of countries spanning the Western Indo-Pacific region. But hinted that India may not necessarily adopt an anti-western stance.

Broaching on the Russia’s aggressive initiative of Eurasian Economic Integration officially formulated in 2010 for defacto integration, Russian Scholar Yuri Kofner stressed on the need for modernising India’s image to connect with Eurasia and counter the public diplomacy of BRI. He recommended de-dollarization to limit the overwhelming influence of Western financial institutes. Swapan Dasgupta, Rajya Sabha MP suggested that India and Russia should adopt new form of political dialogue. Despite some palpable differences in their pursuit towards fostering national interests, both countries must learn to work synergistically in areas of converging interests. Invoking cultural connections between two countries, Makrand Paranjape spoke about Indophile, Nicolas Roerich, who considered Russia an integral part of Asia as opposed to its current eagerness to extol its European connections. He spoke in length about Roerich’s spiritual adventures, his contribution to art, poetry, and above all his family’s deep-rooted continued association with India. In his concluding remarks, Paranjape, conjectured a plausible mystic reunion of Russia, India and the US expounded by Roerich. Emphasizing on the role of people to people connect and cultural links in strengthening partnership, Director of Russia Centre for Science and Culture, Fyodor Rozovisky  spoke about remarkable work of five Indo-Russian cultural centres at Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and Thiruvananthapuram.

Kanwal Sibal, former Ambassador to Russian Federation in the valedictory address suggested that while defence cooperation has been robust pillar of Indo-Russian cooperation, energy cooperation is now emerging as promising area of extensive cooperation. But under the clean energy drive, India is focusing on renewable energy and with time India’s dependence on fossil fuels might taper. Hence countries should intensify cooperation in other areas and preferably in trade, which has immense potential for growth. Further, to cement this vibrant relationship, Russia should take formidable interest in the Make in India initiative. Russia should take a lead in indigenization of the Kudanakulam nuclear reactors. Given its immense space capabilities, India should seek Russian expertise for unmanned space mission. In the past seven decades, Indo-Russian relations have been relatively stable, devoid of marked disagreements. Both countries had each other’s back since establishment of diplomatic ties.

Contemplating on rapidly changing geopolitical equations, Ambassador pondered over Russia’s increasing overarching relationship with India’s antagonistic neighbours China and Pakistan. India shares boundaries with both countries who continue to threaten India’s sovereignty. Simultaneously, Russia is irked by India’s improved relations with America which has now imposed a slew of economic sanctions on Russia. But Sibal pointed that unlike Russian overtures, India’s ties with America are guided by economic, technological and defence interests and wouldn’t pose threat to Russia’s security. Pointing that Russia’s position on CPEC is inimical to India, he expressed concerns over Russia new stance on Taliban, which killed thousands of Russian soldiers as legitimate partner in resolving Afghanistan issue. Allaying Indian concerns Ambassador Ivashentsov pledged Russia’s position wouldn’t be detrimental to India.

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2+2 Dialogue: India’s Strategic Alignment with the US

The much-anticipated inaugural session of the 2+2 strategic defence dialogue which was postponed twice, kick started in New Delhi culminated in signing of a landmark COMCASA agreement (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement). The inaugural Ministerial level talks initiated by Prime Minister Modi on his visit to Washington in 2017 with  tacit support of President Trump provided new impetus to Indo-US bilateral ties. Reflecting greater strategic convergences between India and the US, Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj and Minister of Defence Nirmala Sitharaman hosted their counterparts from US, Mike Pompeo and James Mattis on September 6^th. As a mark of friendship and respect Indian Ministers received US counterparts at the airport.

Since the turn of the century bolstering trust and friendship both countries first signed the General Security Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) one of the foundational agreements in 2002. Amidst apprehensions and domestic hesitations, India signed the landmark civil nuclear agreement in 2008 which eventually enabled a nuclear waiver for India at NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group). For a comprehensive defence partnership, US sought India to sign four foundational agreements for enhancing defence cooperation. Despite strategic concerns, overcoming traditional hesitations, India signed another foundation agreement the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), otherwise termed as Logistics Supply Agreement (LSA) which was suitably tweaked by the US to address Indian concerns in 2016.

Ever since Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” began to stumble US sought to accelerate cooperation and alignment with India. With looming Chinese belligerent presence threatening to engulf regional stability, countries began to expedite maritime cooperation and paved way for revival of Quad 2.0 towards the end of 2017. Subsequently, America began to replace the Asia-Pacific term in all official documents with Indo-Pacific. In a symbolic move to signal India’s importance to US military a day before Shangri La Dialogue, America renamed US Pacific command or PACOM as “US Indo-Pacific Command” or IndoPaCom. Resonating with America’s strategic policy towards region’s security, Prime Minister Modi at the Shangri La Dialogue stressed the importance of “rules-based international order”. Trump administration unveiling its Indo-Pacific strategy reposed interest in cultivating ties with partners to promote peace and security for advancing free and open Indo-Pacific. Mike Pompeo even travelled to Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia to advance economic and security interest in the region and pledged $113 million to bolster the strategy.

To strengthen bilateral security cooperation, in December 2016, outgoing President Obama designated India as “major defense partner”. In a major fillip to India’s major defense partner status, US department of Commerce under Trump administration has granted “Strategic Trade Authorization Level” (STA-1), on par with NATO allies. India is the third country after Japan and South Korea to get this status. STA-1 entitles India to import sensitive advanced technologies from American companies. US conferred this status to India after New Delhi gained membership into three nuclear regimes- Wassenaar Agreement, Australian Group and Missile Technology Control Regime and channelized its national export control regime. This new status will augur well for bilateral defence partnership by removing restrains on US companies for exporting dual-use items to India. Soon, newly enacted National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA) 2019 reaffirmed India’s status. 

In the past 17 years, India’s defence imports from US has increased from near zero to staggering $18 billion. These purchases include Lockheed Martin C-130 J Super Hercules special mission transport, Boeing P-8I long range maritime reconnaissance, anti-submarine jets, heavy transport aircraft C-17 Globe master III. But India don’t have access to the encrypted radio network that can ensure interoperability of all these aircrafts or in other words, “a family of radios for military aircraft that provides two-way voice and data communications across modes”. Despite being huge importer of western sourced equipment, India was plagued by a scenario of no cross talk between equipment procured from different countries like Israel, France which essentially have same communication standard. By signing COMCASA, India can overcome this major hurdle in communication as US will now facilitate installation of high-end secured communication equipment on military platforms sold to India. This will improve interoperability of equipment during military exercises, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. US has a system in place that can integrate sensors, weapons systems and other support capabilities making tactical communication easy. This in turn would enhance India’s defence preparedness. Abhijit Iyer-Mitra in his article indicates, “This COMCASA not only improves India’s ability to fight along side US Navy better, but also alongside several other global navies with similar equipment that are major players in the Indo-Pacific such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and Singapore”.

During the Doklam standoff India hugely benefitted from the US intelligence inputs regarding the deployment of Chinese personnel. Undeniably US has robust communication system and India would stand to gain immensely by signing COMCASA as it can access the data in real-time without time lag especially during critical situations. Despite these obvious advantages, India harbours legitimate fears of America penetrating Indian systems and of US with holding or stalling communications. Critics even questioned the intent of BJP government into buying America’s assurances. To address India-specific issues, US has changed this military agreement that provides the legal framework for interoperability called the Communication and Information on Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) to COMCASA. Strategists even raised doubts that by signing COMCASA whether India is compromising with its strategic autonomy and is close to becoming part of Asian NATO. But putting end to these apprehensions, government assured, “While the text of COMCASA is confidential, we have ensured that we have full access to the relevant equipment and there will be no disruptions. Data acquired through such systems cannot be disclosed or transferred to any person or entity without India’s consent”. In a report for the Times of India, Indrani Bagchi indicated three India-specific assurances are now part of COMCASA-  that there would be no disruption during life cycle of equipment, India specific data will not be disclosed or transferred and national security issues will be addressed.

With India planning to purchase armed sea Guardian drones from US, in absence of COMCASA, the equipment will lack “precision Global Positioning System (GPS) gear and state of the art guidance”. Given all these advantages India has signed COMCASA after several rounds of negotiations overcoming decades of entrenched inhibitions. With this India has signed three of the four foundational agreements baring Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial cooperation (BECA). COMCASA will be a gamechanger and NDA regime must be hailed for its perspicacity and gumption.

Just days ahead of 2+2 dialogue, China’s official mouth piece Global Times in a series of articles cautioned, “it’s not best choice for India to become strategic follower of the US”. Clearly inconvenienced by US pinning down on India as best choice for the US to counterbalance China in the region, China reminded that Indo-China relations have been positive since Wuhan Summit and hence both countries should “ponder how to better cooperate”. In another op-Ed, Global Times believed India should stay away from forging strategic ties with the US as “any benefits will be outweighed by the costs to India”. It suggested, “India needs to be aware that without paying heed to Indian concerns, the US’s strategy is hampering not aiding, India’s domestic development. Rather than falling victim to the US purpose of containing rise, it is better for India to look to China for ways of self-development. What India can learn from China is that its ability to stand on its feet will determine its place in Asia and the World”. Needless to say, China’s fulminations suffice to indicate that an extensive Indo-US strategic engagement can be a tipping point in regional balance of power.

Aside ramping up defence partnership, successful first round of the ministerial talks laid ground for a comprehensive cooperation for collaborating on various regional and global issues in bilateral, trilateral and quadrilateral formats. This included the commitment for working towards prosperous and peaceful Afghanistan. Both sides have agreed to begin negotiations on Industrial Security Annex (ISA), tri-services exercises and increase exchange of personnel between two militaries. After Russia, America will be second country with which India will be holding tri-service drills. As a part of Major Defense Partner designation, US has pledged to assist India in the areas of co-production, innovation, expand intelligence sharing and defence industry cooperation and collaboration. Instead of restraining defence cooperation to narrow buyer-seller relationship, US has committed to “support further expansion in two-way trade in defence items and defence manufacturing supply chain linkages” taking the partnership to next realm.

In a major fillip to counter terrorism cooperation, on the eve of 10 years of 26/11 US asked Pakistan to expedite perpetrators of Mumbai, Pathankot, Uri terrorist attacks. Both countries reached consensus on issues of global and regional importance. US reiterated its support towards India’s accession to Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Ministers agreed to enhance bilateral trade, investment and innovation. To this end India sought a liberal H-1B regime.

Transactional president Trump obsessed with trade imbalances imposed trade tariffs against all countries and India hasn’t been a significant exception. Even America’s traditional allies have been at the receiving end of Trump’s attempts to rewrite America’s foreign policy. But unlike other countries India’s trade surplus is mere $23 billion and with India planning to make defence purchases from the US, the deficit will be plugged. But characteristically, Trump’s policies towards Pakistan and China hit right cords in India and found greater congruence.

For all the perceptible strategic consonance, ructions over economic sanctions on Russia and Iran critically impacted Indian interests. Defence purchases from Russia, crucial Oil imports and strategic Chabahar port development for trade with Afghanistan circumventing Pakistan are affected by the sanctions. Russia has been longstanding supplier of defence supplies to India. India’s purchase of advanced $5.5 billion S-400 Triumf Air defence missile system is now mired by the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act). Despite these irritants, Ministers on both sides worked towards engaging on issues of convergence. Insiders reported that purchases for traditional platforms from Russia may not invite sanctions, purchase of sophisticated weaponry will be sanctioned. This issue would remain a sore point between both countries. But India has made it clear that it will go ahead with purchase of S-400.

With regard to oil purchases, America indicated that is expects countries to cut down Iranian imports to zero by November 4^th. But India being an energy-reliant country importing almost 80% of oil, refused to accept. New Delhi is now silently working on alternative payment mechanism. India’s UCO bank and Bank Pasargad of Iran are mulling a tie-up. India and Iran are deliberating a barter mechanism similar to the one they had during sanctions regime under Obama. India would make payment to Iranian oil imports in terms of food grains, pharmaceuticals and engineering goods. Reports indicate that Iran is all set to handover Chabahar port for operation in a month. Going by past experience, India and US will eventually reach a middle ground over Chabahar considering America’s special appreciation towards New Delhi’s assistance to Afghanistan.  But shrouded by cold war hangover strategists expressed concerns over India’s heightened military engagement with America. In the glitter of Indo-US 2+2 dialogue, Iranian Roads and Urban Development Minister’s visit to India on the same day failed to garner any attention. Upholding the importance of longstanding energy ties with Iran New Delhi announced that it will not be able to reduce Oil purchases from Iran.

Indo-US strategic alignment over wide range of issues is definitely a shot in arm for India’s aspirations to play a larger role in regional peace and security. But Washington’s sheer lack of conciliatory approach towards Indian concerns has reduced the historic event into a deal-making event.

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United States checkmates Pakistan’s double game by cancelling aid

Days ahead of US secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s brief stopover at Islamabad before proceeding for the 2+2 strategic and comprehensive dialogue with India, Washington has announced cancellation of $300 million to Pakistan. Earlier this year, US President Donald Trump accusing Pakistan on twitter, “United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid for over 15 years and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools” and withheld $500 million so-called Coalition Security Fund (CSF). The latest move comes as a massive jolt to Pakistan bracing plummeting forex reserves, raising export bill and slowing economy. This year, Pakistan has accrued cumulative losses of $800 million in aid from US. Though embittered by US’s punitive economic action, Pakistan foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said, “the $300 million is neither aid nor assistance-it is the money Pakistan has spent from its resources against militants in the war against terrorism. This is the money they are supposed to reimburse, but now either they are not willing or unable to pay back”. 

Trump’s retaliatory actions are in reckoning, given the huge losses suffered by the massive Taliban attack on Afghan base in northern province of Ghazni. Taliban seized the Afghan base with 140 personnel for three days killing 17 soldiers before the retaliatory push back by security forces. Over 1000 Taliban fighters took over the city of Ghazni, disabled telecommunication network and paralysed civilian life. The attack on the strategic Ghazni city 120 kilometres from Kabul a show of strength by Taliban bristled US which ordered air strikes and rushed forces to Afghanistan. The attack which lasted for five days claimed lives of 150 Afghan soldiers and 150 civilians. The 17-year long America’s unwinnable battle in Afghanistan once again exposed Pakistan’s double game and duplicitous cooperation. Days after the attack, Afghan Defence Minister claimed that Taliban carried out Ghazni attack with external support which includes Pakistan. Though Pakistan rejected all allegations of covert support to Taliban fighters, reports of bodies of Taliban fighters were sent back to Pakistan for funeral unmasked Islamabad’s chicanery.

Taliban’s unprecedented attacks on Ghazni came at a time when Trump announced new strategy to win war in Afghanistan. American hopes not only came down crashing, but the reliable reports of Pakistan’s army extending support to Pakistan has prompted Trump to toughen hard-line approach towards Pakistan. Unlike the earlier altruistic American regimes, Trump miffed by Pakistan’s recalcitrance to act of terror havens operating from its territory the current regime dumped reconciliatory approach. Ever since, America withheld economic and military assistance, added seven Pakistani companies carrying out nuclear trade as risk to national security and dented Pakistan’s bid for membership to Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). As the spat intensified, US imposed restriction on the movements of Pakistani diplomats in America and Pakistan imposed reciprocal travel restrictions on American diplomats. Further, the relentless anti-American narratives peddled by different political parties seeded suspicion and bilateral plumbed to a new low. Perhaps, owing to Pakistan’s fresh overtures to Russia, American has even scrapped coveted training program to Pakistani officers silently. By June, America has pushed for Pakistan’s inclusion in the grey-list of FATF (Financial Action Task Force). To this end, America even acceded to China’s proposal of bestowing it with Vice-Presidentship of FATF in reciprocation of its support to black-list Pakistan and even threatened to block Pakistan’s IMF bail out plea. Despite this slew of measures against Pakistan, Rawalpindi believed that Trump will not have stomach for further escalation against Pakistan. But much to the surprise of Pakistan Trump has cancelled the much needed $300 million fund.

Coming under heat for failing to deliver, just a day ahead of Mike Pompeo’s arrival at the behest of Pakistan Afghan Taliban announced death of Jalaluddin Haqqani, founder of the Haqqani network. US is exerting pressure on Pakistan to bring the Afghan Taliban to table for peace negotiation. This tactical announcement is an attempt by Pakistan to buy more time while it will be business as usual for the Taliban fighters. Haqqani network has very close connections with Pakistan military establishment and served as American asset during the Cold war in Afghanistan. Indeed, US financed Haqqani network’s activities. But around 1990s Haqqani cultivated strong links with Osama bin Laden and served as Minister during the Taliban regime from 1996 to 2001. Haqqani network is now one of the most cohesive groups in Afghanistan over which Pakistan have an absolute control.

The intractable war of Afghanistan with a no visible end, is making US anxious. After 9/11 Pakistan promised to help America in its war against terrorism but over the years, its double game, litany of lies and duplicitous approach has been glaringly evident. Successive regimes have pledged cooperation but civilian leadership which is under the control of military establishment has never delivered. Whenever America pulled up Pakistan, it was armed with an excuse of having lost thousands of soldiers deployed at border and the resources expended to the rampage of Taliban forces. Pakistan suffered loss of lives for harbouring and cultivating terrorists, most of it has been its own making. It reaped what it has sowed.

In 2012, America instituted CSF as a reward to compensate Pakistan for the losses suffered, for providing access routes including airfields, ports and roads to carry supplies to the American forces in Afghanistan. Irrespective of the outcomes, to sustain a long-term engagement America continued to disburse funds to Pakistan. To keep the funds flowing Pakistan maintained good rapport with Pentagon, Congress and successive American leaderships. But chinks in the bilateral trust deepened since 2014, when Coalition forces began to slowly with draw from Afghanistan and Taliban & Haqqani networks intensified assaults. US administration was miffed by vexatious attacks on its security forces. American criticism grew louder and bilateral ties have come under strain with White House cutting down aid to Pakistan proportionately. With financial largesse slowly evaporating, Pakistan which is reliant on American funds began to cry foul that it has been victim of terror. Around the same period Pakistan deepened ties with China inking $62 billion CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor).

Despite its stringent anti-American narratives, Pakistan neither retaliated by throttling American supplies into Afghanistan nor scrapped its support to Haqqani and Taliban fighters. It smartly kept all its option open. Wary of losing lumpsum American aid Pakistan at times effectively played China card against Washington.

But in the meanwhile, American worst suspicions of Pakistan’s reluctance to crackdown on Afghan Taliban and duplicitous approach deepened when Pakistan military brutally crushed Pakistan Taliban citing irreconcilable difference while it refused to fire a single shot against Afghan Taliban. Instead it recommended that talks with Taliban can be only way forward for Afghanistan. Soon, America kept Pakistan out of the loop and held direct talks with Taliban leaders without any preconditions.

Distressed by Pakistan’s perfidy, America has made drastic amends to its South Asian policy. Husain Haqqani, director at Hudson Institute and former Pakistani Ambassador to the US opined, “what is different this time is the willingness of the US side to recognise that Pakistan may not just be a difficult ally that needs to be persuaded to cooperate a bit more, but a country that is no longer an ally”. Consequently, Pakistan besides losing its strategic advantage of being closet ally of the US in South Asia is being prodded by China to renew engagement with India and contain its terror activities across the borders. Since any instability along the CPEC or in Afghanistan might dent its aspirations to exert sizeable control over the region and to its strategy of a connected Eurasia through BRI.

Yesterday, Mike Pompeo accompanied by US military chief Joseph Dunford held talks with Prime Minister Imran Khan who spear headed anti-American campaign during elections in a remarkable volte-face aspired for a constructive engagement with the US in this victory speech and army chief General Qamar Bajwa at Islamabad. Cognizant that Pakistan’s retaliation of closing the air and land supply chains to Afghanistan would be inimical, Pompeo in a tough balancing act indicated that Trump administration has “real expectations” from Pakistan. While Pakistani military officials were miffed by American decision of cancelling of aid and even mulled scrapping talks, they engaged with US officials. Summing up America’s stratagem towards Pakistan Michael Kugelman Senior associate for South Asia at Wilson Centre said, “Washington’s recent decision to cancel aid to Pakistan emphasizes that it means business, and yet Imran Khan’s new government has vowed it won’t be dictated to by United States”. But ostensibly Pakistan may have to give up its cavalier attitude towards US given its urgent need for IMF bail out package.

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