Spectacular roller-coastering in Maharashtra

Election results for the assembly elections of Maharashtra and Haryana had been a mixed bag for BJP. The pre-poll alliance of BJP and Shiv Sena having comfortably crossed the majority mark ensured the return of coalition of power without any hiccups. On the other hand, the party failed to obtain majority on its own in Haryana clambered for support to form government.  The 11-month old JJP led by Dushyant Chautala sprang a surprise in Haryana. With a top notch maiden political performance Chautala emerged as a surprise kingmaker. Though the stakes were high, losing no time, BJP put best foot forward and eventually tied up with JJP. BJP-JJP sealed the coalition and in less than 72 hrs Manohar Lal Khattar returned to his official duties as Chief Minister.

In sharp contrast, Sena threw a spanner into government formation and stalled the process with its tantrums of equal power sharing. Refusing to settle for anything less than a chief ministership post for 2.5 years it posed hurdles. Negotiations between the parties with three decade long political partnership failed to end the political impasse. Sena remained adamant. Reluctant to make any amends to its demands, it held the state hostage to the political stalemate despite a decisive mandate. Through its mouth piece Samna, Sena doubled its attacks on BJP. Discussions between the coalition partners failed to cut ice. As the deadline of November 8^th, (end of current term) neared, Sena hardened its stance triggering speculations of constitutional crisis. On Nov 8^th, Devendra Fadnavis tendered his resignation.

Throughout its poll campaign, BJP maintained that Fadnavis would be the chief minister of state for five years. Keen on installing a Sena candidate as Chief Minister, Sena remained defiant, but continued to hold closed-door talks with other parties. On Nov 9^th, Governor invited Fadnavis, the leader of single largest party to initiate government formation. But the deadlock over the 50-50 power sharing couldn’t be resolved. After BJP expressed inability to form the government, governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari invited Sena leader Eknath Shinde, the second largest party. Sena expressed its willingness to form a coalition government.

Days after elections, both NCP and Congress maintained that respecting people mandate they would sit in the opposition. NCP which had yet to reveal its cards didn’t respond to Sena’s offer. Desperate to form the government Sena sought an extension for three days to submit requisite letter of support. Governor refused and invited NCP to stake claims. After all the major parties failed to form government, governor recommended imposition of President’s rule. By November 12^th President’s rule ensued.

Miffed by governor’s refusal to give time, Sena took the Maharashtra to Supreme Court. It alleged NCP and Congress was ready to offer support but governor failed to give more time. Indeed, on NCP’s behest, Sena severed ties with NDA, Cabinet Minister Arvind Sawant tendered his resignation. Since November 12^th, Sena held hectic parleys with NCP and Congress. Apprehensive of losing its Muslim voter base for allying with a Hindutva Sena Congress remained reluctant and avoided making any public statements. On the contrary, NCP’s Sharad Pawar made no secret of his negotiations with Sena about the power sharing. He shuttled between Mumbai and New Delhi.  Formation of coalition gained pace after Sonia Gandhi gave a go ahead for alliance with Sena on Wednesday.

True to his reputation of being a wily politician amidst this political high drama in Maharashtra, fuelling speculations of a plausible ties up with BJP, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar held a meeting with Prime Minister Modi for 40 minutes. After the meeting, he dismissed rumours of tie up and termed it a routine affair to address farmers distress.  Back in Mumbai, the “troika” Sena-NCP-Congress arrived at a ministerial berth sharing formula of 15-15-12. Though parties had severe disagreements over plum positions of Chief Minister, Deputy Chief Minister and Speaker, the new coalition, Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi as per media reports inched towards staking government formation.  Notwithstanding the visible fissures, by Friday night the coalition named Uddhav Thackeray as its chief minister and declared that new government will take oath on Monday (Nov 25^th).

Come Saturday morning, the nation wakes up to the the news of Devendra Fadanavis having sworn in as Chief Minister of Maharashtra for a second time with Ajit Pawar as deputy chief minister. The unprecedented turn of events left the country flabbergasted. Akin to a midnight political coup, a series of events from 8pm on Friday to 8am on Saturday changed the political contours of the state.

As per media reports, Ajit Pawar, nephew of Sharad Pawar, submitted letter of support signed by MLAs to governor by 8pm. By 10 pm governor apprised the President of the turn of events. At 12 midnight, Ajit Pawar along with few MLAs met the governor extending support to BJP. Fadanavis met the governor at 2 am to stake claim for government. By 5:47 am, governor revoked Presidents rule. Around 8 pm Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar accompanied by their families officially took oath. Ascertaining the events, Prime Modi tweets congratulatory message to Fadnavis and extends best wishes to him. BJP and NCP with 105 and 54 seats was tasked to prove majority was tasked to prove majority on November 30^th.  The numbers are definitely stacked in favour of new government, and well poised to offer stable government provided the alliance successfully passes the AgniPariskha of floor test.

Outwitted and outflanked by swift moves of BJP, NCP and Sena questioned the legality of whole process and alleged high-handedness of BJP in influencing the constitutional offices for their political interests. Stumped by Ajit’s political manoeuvring, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray held press conference. Elder Pawar feigned ignorance and claimed Ajit had deceitfully obtained the letter signed by NCP MLAs. He vowed to take action against Ajit after taking the consensus of the party members. But Pawar’s rather soft approach towards Ajit raised doubts of being the unseen hand behind these sudden twists and turns. Uddhav stated BJP committed a sin by going to governor at midnight and swearing in as Chief minister without any official notice. Congress party’s absence raised doubts about cohesion of newly formed coalition. But soon Ahmed Patel accompanied by Mallikarjun Kharge accused BJP of the political coup and threw weight behind the coalition.

By 3pm Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad rebutted the false claims of the trio (Sena, NCP and Congress) who gloated about the murder of democracy. Defending governor’s actions, as legitimate, he clarified that Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar are leaders of legislature of their respective parties are entitled to submit letters. He exuded confidence about BJP-NCP led by Ajit Pawar winning the floor test and claimed BJP has “warded off a conspiracy to capture financial capital of India through back door”. Riled by Sena’s unabated tirade, he demanded answers for its 360-degree U-turn and wanted to know the trigger. While political analysts have been situationally referring to turn of events as black day for Indian democracy. These criticisms appear far-fetched as they were officially sworn in after producing the requisite letter of support from MLAs. 

Since the announcement of elections results, Sena insisted that it should get equal share of pie, it is time for real soul searching for the Maharashtrian party. BJP with a strike rate of 70% and nearly twice the number of seats played a dominant role in winning the larger mandate. Sena piggy backed BJP and won 56 seats riding on the popularity of Fadnavis government. The mandate is an endorsement for his good governance in the state and central leadership of Modi. Instead of doing the reality check, overpowered by greed, Sena locked horns with BJP. Dumping the three-decade long association, Sena brought the state, which is vital for powering Indian economy to political deadlock. Undermining the national interests, the Sena hell bent on clinching power despite the mandate staked its ideology and joined hands with parties strongly denounced by the founding father Bala Saheb Thackeray. How much ever the parties would like cast aspersions of BJP of being power hungry, it is undeniable that the Maharashtra political crisis has an offshoot of Sena’s political greed.

Undermining the peoples mandate, Sena ditched the pre-poll alliance and rallied with parties which it badmouthed and campaigned against in the elections. While two wrongs can’t make it right, this deception have opened flood gates for political opportunism. Smaller parties are extracting their pound of flesh through hard bargaining to pledge their support. This has forced BJP to enter into alliance with a party with which it has nothing in common. NCP, which tacitly approved the saffron terror theory is know to have close links with accused of Bombay blasts. Needless to say, betrayal of political mandate has serious repercussions for both BJP and Sena which are largely deemed as Hindutva parties by vast majority. By undermining the pre-poll alliance, Sena has breached trust. People will no longer consider any political alliance a serious contender.

A series of unstable coalition governments for two decades at the centre disincentivised people against delivering a fractured mandate. The stunning mandate for the Modi government for the second time indicates that people are wary of coalition or Khicidi sarkars. They now understand the implications of an indecisive mandate. Soon people might replicate this trend in state elections. The massive political activity, hectic dramas, hood winking, poaching, horse trading and defections which are unfolding in the aftermath of assembly elections is making them weary of the democratic elections. With political opportunism becoming the buzz word people might consider voting enmasse to a decisive leader. While this can be a welcome development, smaller parties with low finances might sooner or later fade away in this biggest huddle for power.

Given the out-of-thinking of some outfits and the mastery in circumventing the gaps in the constitution it is time, government seriously considers plugging these lacunae. Having frittered huge political mandate, parties are vaingloriously stitching unnatural alliances. They disrespected and dishonoured electoral verdict.

Maharashtra is now witnessing a gruelling political turmoil faced by Karnataka last year. Instead of submitting letters of support, pre-requisite for government formation, Sena, NCP and Congress are herding their MLAs into resorts to prevent poaching and horse trading. While all the constitutional legalities are followed in Maharashtra, the trio has appealed for Supreme Court intervention alleging conspiracy. Just like the midnight judgement in case of Karnataka, SC will open on a Sunday to hear the petition at 11:30 am. NCP in the meanwhile, removed Ajit Pawar as NCP legislature party leader and replaced him with Jayant Patil invalidating his letter of support. Despite these perfunctory actions, analysts largely assert, Ajit Pawar wouldn’t have joined hands with BJP without tacit approval from Senior Pawar. They don’t rule out a lastminute flip-flop.

Finally, if the judiciary had to take final call on the political mandate, why should the government take pains in conducting the huge electoral process involving massive investment and mobilisation of state machinery? Lot is at stake for political parties. But with every political coup of sorts parties are slowly losing their credibility and morality is the biggest casualty.

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India sets the tone for recalibration with Sri Lanka’s new regime

Sri Lanka grappling with national security issues and economic crisis has elected Gotabaya Rajapaksa brother of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa as the seventh executive President. In the polls held on November 16^th Gotabaya of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) a nationalist party defeated his nearest rival Sajith Premadasa, son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa of National Democratic Front (NDF). Sajith who is the candidate of the United National Party received support from the war-affected Sri Lanka Tamil (SLT) community and Tamil National Alliance. Scoring 52.25% of the votes, Gotabaya emerged as clear winner defeating Sajith by a margin of 13 lakh votes. Gotabaya hailing from the family of Rajapaksas and Sajith who served as Housing Minister in the Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government have deeply entrenched roots in Sri Lanka’s political system.

Despite reports of violent incidents largely surmised as attempts to prevent Muslims from reaching the polling stations, elections were by and large peaceful. Monitored by officials from several countries, the newly constituted Election Commission ensured a record voter turnout of 80%. Among the 35 candidates in fray, the contest revolved around the three candidates- Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake (Janata Vimukthi Peramuna, a leftist party). Sri Lanka which has the reputation of having the first Prime Minister and a President had a lone woman in contesting in Presidential polls.

Gotabaya, aged 70, a retired military officer and former defence secretary has been the force behind defeating the LTTE in 2009 ending the 26-year long civil war in the island. Nicknamed as “Terminator”. Gotabaya which joined the Army in 1971 studied defence courses in Pakistan and India. He has vast combat experience and played a pivotal role in raising 1^st Sinhala Gajaba Battalion. He quit Army in 1991, moved to the US to work as systems manager and believed to have obtained American citizenship. He returned to Sri Lanka in 2005 to help his brother Mahinda Rajapaksa in campaigning. After Mahinda became President, Gotabaya took charge as Defence Secretary and crushed the Eelam movement. Unlike Sajith Premadasa who is touted to have a clean image, Gotabaya is a man of controversies. He wears twin hats of being a “war hero” and “war criminal”. Towards the end of Sri Lanka’s war with the LTTE, he doubled up attacks on schools, refugee camps and hospitals. Most of these murders were unreported. Tamils in the island term it as genocide. He is accused of indiscriminate killings, torture and political assassinations and his actions are under scrutiny for blatant human rights violations. In 2015 Sirisena government signed a UNHRC (UN Human Rights Council) resolution agreeing to comply with UN regulations. In press interaction, Gotabaya explicitly indicated that he will not honour the commitment made to UNHRC by the previous government. After Gotabaya announced his candidature for Presidential polls, several political parties alleged that he held dual citizenship. Just last month, Supreme court cleared him of all charges.

Infamous for the war crimes, Rajapaksa have invariably pushed the island nation into Chinese orbit. Facing international isolations for excess use of force and human rights violations, to revive the war-torn nation, Rajapaksas opened flood gates for Chinese investments in the island. Straddling the most important commercial trade routes, China grabbed this opportunity with both the hands China invested heavily in island’s infrastructure and the strategically important Hambantota port. Chinese investments between 2009 and 2014 surged by 60%. Expanding its foot hold in Sri Lanka, China made forays into the strategically important Indian Ocean Region (IOR), India’s back yard. For the first time in 2014, Chinese sub docked at Colombo port demonstrating deepening of Sino-Sri Lankan relations. By 2015, the hidden costs and the mercantilist practices of the Dragon began to take a huge toll on Sri Lankan economy plunging it into an abyss of debt trap. Civil war and government’s excesses deepened fissures in Sri Lankan society under Mahinda. Minorities began to fear the regime Gotabaya.  Besides, anti-Chinese sentiment and heavy handedness of Mahinda Rajapaksa paved for his ouster in Presidential elections.

The dual leadership of President Sirisena and Wickremasinghe who took up the governance in 2015 failed to win the confidence of people with their governance. They hardly made any efforts to revive the economy which is in tail spin. Country reeled under high debt; lack of employment opportunities further aggravated the financial woes. Having failed to repay the debt and renegotiate the deal, the duo officially leased out Hambantota port to China for 99 years. While blaming the Rajapaksas for the mountains of debt, they went ahead with new Chinese projects on Colombo port construction, land reclamation and even borrowed $100 million for the infrastructure projects. Constant tussle for one-upmanship, internal squabbles, petty quarrels further exposed the cracks within the government. Sirisena government’s poor performance furthered the return of Rajapaksas with a bang. They swept the local elections of February 2018.

By November, 2018 the political bickering between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe snow-balled into a constitutional coup exposing the fault lines in the government. Supreme Court intervened to end nearly two-months of political impasse. The constitutional coup which gutted Sirisena’s political fortunes, it marked the revival of Mahinda’s fortune who made attempts to grab the power by extraconstitutional means. As per Sri Lanka having served two serves, while Mahinda is ineligible for Presidentship. He eyed for a Prime Ministerial position. Marred by political instability, Sinhalese favoured the return of Rajapaksas. Further, the inability of Sirisena government to act with alacrity despite continued intelligence inputs about the Easter blasts riled the people. The serial blasts in April claimed over 260 lives which included foreign nationals. The fears of national security returned to the island. The cornerstone of tourism witnessed a huge slump after the Easter attacks. A dip in tourism took a toll on economy, jobs evaporated and it reeled under recession. Government’s ineptness on many fronts fuelled anti-incumbency. This factor worked in favour of Gotabaya. Given the precarious state of national security, Gotabaya with proven credentials to tackle security emerged as a preferred choice for a vast majority.

Sinhalese who constitute 74% of the island population rallied behind Rajapaksa whose support base became much consolidated after the Easter Bomb attacks while Premadasa and Dissanayake competed for the support of the minorities and other sections. Making no secret of his vote bank who catapulted him to the echelons of power, he thanked the Sinhala majority after the elections. In his acceptance speech after official announcement of results he said “I am the President of not only those who voted for me but also those who voted against me and irrespective of which race or religion they belong to. I am deeply committed to serve all the people of Sri Lanka”. His opening remarks indicates that the island is still pregnant with the religious and ethnic rivalries. This task ahead is to bring about a cohesion among various sections.

Allaying fears of minorities, Gotabaya promised to work for all. He reiterated his neutral foreign policy, “We will remain neutral in our foreign relations, and stay out of conflict of World powers”. He offered to provide a corruption-free, technocratic, authoritarian style governance based on meritocracy led by professionals rather than politicians. Essentially indicating his intentions of not frittering away progress made in reviving ties with India. In the last four years, India made forays into islands inking deals with Sri Lanka in collaboration with Japan for port development. Modi’s official visits resonated well with the Sinhala majority and the Tamilian minority in the Northern part of the island. Invoking cultural ties and developing good rapport with the Tamilian minority, India infused new trust and dynamism in Indo-Sri Lankan ties. Modi and Mohammed Solih were among the first leaders who congratulated Gotabaya on his victory. Modi telephoned Gotabaya and “expressed confidence that the fraternal, cultural, historical and civilizational ties between India and Sri Lanka will be further strengthened”. He extended Gotabaya invitation to visit India. Barring Pakistan leaders of all countries in India’s neighbourhood make India their first foreign port-of-call. Gotabaya having accepted Modi’s invitation will visit India.

Immediately after his electoral loss Mahinda Rajapaksa accused India of intervening it is elections in 2015. But soon he made attempts to normalise relations with India. In one of his private visits, Mahinda with his brother Gotabaya have reportedly met Prime Minister Modi and proposed to revive the “troika- approach”. In 2008 India proposed that Sri Lanka should choose three individuals close to the leadership and India would identify three equals and the three individuals on either side would interact to create a rapport, iron out differences, avoid miscommunications and further active dialogue. Incidentally, this approach helped in eliminating terror. Sri Lankan team included Basil Rajapaksa, Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Lalith Weeratunga. These interactions yielded great results and the results were visible. But after May 2009 these interactions became fewer and eventually stopped. This kind of out-of-box kind of initiatives can once again be relaunched to resurrect Indo-Sri Lankan ties.

Unlike Maldives, while Sri Lanka may not embrace “India First Policy” and would continue to maintain strong links with China. As of now, India’s trade exceeds China and New Delhi must make every attempt to rev up ties with Sri Lanka which is geostrategically important for India’s security interests. Gotabaya in his speech hinted at Mahinda’s entry into political fray. It now emerges that Mahinda had already indicated to Modi in his previous meeting that if Gotabaya were elected as President, he would drive the nation from Prime Minister’s seat.

Coincidentally, UNP’s parliamentary group has agreed on a proposal to dissolve the elections provided general elections are held after February 2020. Given the internal political rivalries Wickremasinghe’s UNP who lost his political mileage in the last year political showdown will find it extremely difficult to win the elections scheduled for August 2020. Rajapaksas led SLPP will win the general elections hands down. Firmly positioned in the driver’s seat Rajapaksas will be in absolute control of the island country. With China leaning leftist regime in Nepal and pro-China Rajapaksas in Sri Lanka, India has to carefully charter its path with immediate neighbours. With Rajapaksas at the helm, the US is also keenly watching the island which is pivotal for “Free, open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)” doctrine advocated by the Quad.

Gotabaya tasked with economic revival and securing national interests may not risk crossing Indian redlines of undermining its strategic interests which includes Chinese military presence in IOR. Being decisive leaders, Modi and Gotabaya understand the importance of the longstanding ties between both countries which share religious, cultural and civilizational ties. Even now the vast majority of Tamilians in the Northern province will look towards India. These are the only regions which didn’t vote for Gotabaya. Earning their trust and confidence will be essential for smooth functioning of island nation. So, all it not lost. It is time India recalibrates its Neighbourhood First Policy to ensure peace, security, deepening of ties in its sphere of influence.

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Sunanda’s Testimony: A Moment of Truth

Truth has an uncanny way of coming out. In this case, the conduit has been Sunanda who displayed extraordinary courage to voice out the Kashmiri side of story at the Human rights commission. The unspeakable atrocities perpetrated finally found first ever sympathetic hearing. Sunanda’s testimony at the Tom Lantos commission is first ever occasion when the World got to hear about the exodus of the Kashmiris from their homeland. The heart rendering tales would leave anyone numb. I had the opportunity to learn about the spate of the Kashmiri Hindus through Sunanda’s speech at the Indian Embassy which became viral. If not for her initiative, the World would still be unaware of gruesome personal tragedies endured by Kashmiri Hindus.

For many reasons, this event can be termed as a watershed moment. In the World dominated by powerful lobbies, the lopsided human rights commissions for decades conveniently whitewashed the enormity of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in the valley. Lending credence to the litany of lies, the Indian leftist cabal used their heft to turn the tide against India. While the terror operatives continued to have a free run, the tribunals dominated by vested interests continued to reprimand India for use of force. The hapless Kashmiri Hindus who faced the brutality of state sponsored terrorism were forced to leave their homeland. Their plight is an instance of monumental shame. Let down by neighbors and friends they moved on picking up broken pieces in life.

Interestingly, in what can be called text book case of apathy, Supreme Court refused to even investigate the mass murder of the Kashmiri Hindus. On the contrary, SC ruled on the plea stalling the deportation of illegal Rohingya Muslims migrants considered as a national security threat filed by the cabal.  Ironically, the self-proclaimed saviors of human rights in India didn’t deem it fit to harp on the mass eviction of the minority Hindu community from the valley.  The elitist candle-light brigade, whose heart melt at the sight of any injustice to minority deemed it unfit for their stature to even harp at the exodus of the minority Hindu community in the valley.  By denying the Hindus justice, a nation of over 1.25 billion seized by a slanted narrative collectively failed them.

Instead of seeking retribution through violence like innocent son a headmaster, over the past three decades, Kashmiri Hindus moved to far off places in search of better livelihoods. While a section continues to live as refugees in their country waiting for resettlement. Exemplifying resilience and core civilizational values, on the behalf of Kashmiri Hindus, Sunanda rightfully earned her place in the panel dominated by the pro-Islamist lobby. She called the bluff of the radical Islamic terror and vociferously put forth Indian concerns.

Instead of offering a healing touch to the Kashmiri Hindus who finally had an audience, the “fifth column” of India continues to question the intentions of the witness. Such is the vise-like grip of orchestrated narrative that a former CJI in response to Sunanda’s testimony questioned her intentions for failing to dwell on atrocities faced by Kashmiri Muslims. Expressing concerns over the attempts of Pakistan terrorists obstructing the restoration of normalcy to the valley, in her remarks she spoke about the killing of traders who opened shops to earn their livelihood. Indeed, she even mentioned about the Chattisingpura Sikh massacre. Making no secret of their allegiance to the Islamists, the Fifth column in India infamous for their expertise in peddling lies for decades, denied religion-based persecution. But the moment of truth has arrived. Scale and depth of Pakistan sponsored terrorism can longer be brushed under carpet.

“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”.  Moving ahead, Government must commission investigation team to probe the mass murders and chronicle the stories of the massacre to serve as a constant remainder to the younger generations. It must endeavor to bring perpetrators to justice and seriously evolve a plan to resettle the displaced Kashmiri Hindus, renounce appeasement and rusticates ideologically biased academia to lay foundation for a rational thinking society. It is time to blow the mask off the “liberal voices” who continue to instigate a psychological war in India and dismiss prejudices and historical atrocities against Hindus. The immediate task at hand is to create awareness about history to inculcate self-respect. Creating and restoring pride in the civilizational roots will go a long way in healing the wounded community. Abrogation of article 370 has been a huge first step in bringing peace and development to Kashmir. Sunanda’s bold move to speak about massacre of Hindus is thus a defining moment in creating a new awakening among Hindus. She made her voice heard to the people in the ivory towers. Hopefully, in future hearings on Kashmir issue, the commissions would ensure reserve a place for the real stakeholders of Kashmir.

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India’s Kartarpur Conundrum

Right from the day one Pakistan’s overt enthusiasm to resurrect India’s long pending plea of providing access to Darbar Sahib Gurudwara in Kartarpur had treachery, deceit and lies written all over it. Kartarpur barely 4 km from Indian border in the Narowal District, of Pakistan’s Punjab Province has the abode of Guru Nanak Dev who spent last 18 years of his life. Kartarpur stands as a towering example of blunders of partition where a randomly drawn Radcliff line denied millions of Sikhs an access to their sacred place. Barely a stone-throw away from the Indian border, Sikhs till now were contended by the mere glance of the Darbar Sahib through a high-powered telescope from the Indian side.  

In 1999 Atal Bihari Vajpayee on his Lahore bus ride requested Pakistan to provide access to Kartarpur. Last year, the selected Prime Minister Imran Khan, during his swearing in ceremony communicated Pakistan’s plans of working on India’s long pending plea through its catspaw Navjot Singh Sidhu who attended the event. Foisting it as a good will gesture at the behest of his ISI masters, Khan has successfully pushed this agenda. Losing no time, aman ki asha brigade and the Western media loaded with pro-Pakistani lobbyists pushed Pakistani agenda as a religious diplomacy with a potential to bring about peace and harmony between two countries.

Commemorating 550^th birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev, the following year, Indian government mindful of Pakistan’s nefarious tactics approved the construction of Kartarpur corridor.  Modi government even dispatched Union Ministers to participate in the foundation stone laying ceremony. Shadowing presence of the Army General Qamar Bajwa and Khalistan rebel Gopal Singh Chawla at the foundation stone ceremony at Kartarpur confirmed India’s doubts of revival ISI’s diabolical agenda of Kashmir and Khalistan (K2). Veiling, precocious crafty mechanisations in the background, Khan overtly used this occasion to burnish Pakistan’s international credentials as a peace maker in South Asia.

Known for its characteristic subterfuge, determined to draw mileage from the Kartarpur corridor, allaying Indian fears Pakistan made tall proclamations of keeping the pro-Khalistani groups at bay. Under the ruse of orchestrated religious diplomacy, Pakistan anticipated to open a channel of communication with India and initiate peace talks. On the contrary, Indo-Pakistan relations have touched rock bottom with countries coming close to a fourth war in the wake of Pulwama attacks and Balakot retaliation. As matters worsened countries even closed air space and halted the LoC trade. Abrogation of article 370 in August was the final nail in coffin. Khan openly declared himself as Kashmiri ambassador and kicked Pakistani international media blitzkrieg. Needless to say, Pakistan’s brazen anti-Indian agenda became more obvious.

Notwithstanding the burden on the economy, Pakistan timed the corridor in the context of Canadian elections and US-based Sikh for Justice (SFJ)’s sham Referendum 2020. Indeed, weeks ahead of the final agreement on the operationalisation of the Kartarpur corridor, Pakistan was caught air dropping cache of arms, fake currency and ammunition using Chinese drones in the bordering districts of Punjab. Indian agencies busted terror module Khalistan Zindabad Force (KZF) working at the instructions of deep state to create unrest through series of strikes in Punjab and adjoining regions. Having failed to unleash terror in Kashmir, which is turned into a fortress in the aftermath of article 370 revocation, ISI opened the Punjab frontier. Amidst the provocations and censure from analysts of “political expediency” having given word, Indian leadership didn’t back out.

On October 24^th after several three rounds of tough negotiations, India and Pakistan signed the final agreement for operationalisation of Kartarpur corridor at the Zero point along the international border. Across the world, Gurudwaras are known to provide free access and food for pilgrims. Much against the true spirit of the religion, Pakistan obstinately stuck to point to charging $20 from every Indian Sikh pilgrim for single trip. Charade of Pakistan’s touted religious diplomacy was exposed once again after it refused to do away with the service fee. Barely less than a week before opening of the corridor which connects Dera Baba Nanak in Punjab to Darbar Shahib, Indian intelligence agencies received reports of anti-India terror agencies moving to areas close to Kartarpur.

The erosion of Pakistan’s illusionary good will hit a new low after Pakistan’s official video commemorating the opening of the corridor carried the images of the slain Khalistani trio-Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, Amrik Singh Khalsa and Maj Gen Shabej Singh killed in the Operation Blue Star at the Golden Temple in 1984. Blatantly projecting its intentions, Pakistan made no secret of its agenda of reigniting the Khalistan movement under the façade of the respecting the religious sentiments of Sikhs. Unsurprisingly, it has even created confusion regarding the modalities by unilaterally making amends in the operational details. Undermining the bilateral agreement, Pakistan failed to clear and confirm the first list of the travellers four days of the travel as agreed. It didn’t share even the details of the security and medical facilities. Compounding this confusion, to gain brownie points, Imran Khan tweeted that Kartarpur pilgrims can travel with any valid ID and exempted the service fee for travellers on the opening day and Guru Purb. But the office of ISPR quickly overturned Khan’s grandiose declarations. Conflicting messaging by Pakistan’s civil and military officials and inconsistencies fuelled more suspicions. Military officials insisted on entry with passports as it planned to create a database of pilgrims.

Cognizant of strategic vulnerabilities, on November 9^th Prime Minister Modi inaugurated the Kartarpur corridor on the Indian side and flagged off first jatha of over 500 people. An overwhelmed SGPC (Shirmani Gurudwara Prabhandak Committee) conferred Qaumi Seva award on Modi for the audacious decision replete of risks. Modi thanked Imran Khan Niazi (apparent dig) for respecting the religious sentiments. Pakistan offered to provide access to Kartarpur corridor even during Congress regime. But it didn’t respond.

Pakistan’s penchant for instigating Sikhs is evident from the signboard within the Gurudwara claiming that Indian Air Force targeted the Darbar Sahib during the 1971 war. Ignoring the provocations, Modi government pursued the corridor to offer a healing to Sikhs. Sikhs have been at the receiving end. They bore the brunt of inhuman brutality during the bloody partition paying with their lives and the events of 1984 have sowed the seeds of dissension and mistrust. Having survived a near genocide offering a closure to 1984 and providing access to places of religious significance could restore some faith in Sikhs who stood up for Hindus and persecuted Kashmiris towards India. For decades, Pakistan has been exploiting India’s fault lines to foster its anti-India agenda to the hilt. With this historic initiative fraught with challenges, Indian leadership walked an extra mile to reach out to the Sikh community. Given the religious and spiritual salience of this pilgrimage, this iconic day will now become immensely important for the Sikh community as well.

Pakistan anticipated a spectacular media coverage and an overwhelming gush of opeds adorning the international media from the sympathetic western media for its beguiling peace initiative. Khan’s high hopes of hogging headlines dashed as Supreme Court of India pronounced historic judgement on Ayodhya temple just hours ahead of the Kartarpur corridor and the attention of media shifted to the most happening place, New Delhi.

Pakistan’s religious diplomacy is a pernicious plot replete of security threats with an indubitable promise of reviving Khalistan movement. But having committed itself, India has no two ways except tightening vigil and adopting extreme caution.

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No trade-off with core interests: India pulls out of RCEP

Ending the impasse over RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) at the 3^rd RCEP summit, Thailand, Prime Minister Modi pulled India out of the trade deal which includes 16 countries, accounts for 35% of the global trade and half global population. He announced, “Our farmers, traders, professionals and industries have stakes in such decisions. Equally important are workers and consumers, who make India a huge market and the biggest economy in terms of purchasing power parity. When I measure the RCEP agreement with respect to the interests of all Indians, I do not get a positive answer. Therefore, neither the talisman of Gandhiji nor my own conscience permit me to join RCEP”.

Initiated in 2012, the multilateral trading bloc, RCEP includes 10 ASEAN members- Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines, Brunei, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and its FTA (Free Trade Agreement) partners- China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India. India which was part of the trade negotiations since its inception decided to pull out after 29^th round of talks. The group comprising of Asian Tiger economies with a proven record as robust market economies fervently batted for a trading block that could augur their trade interests. After India’s slow growth in the last quarter and lower growth projections by financial agencies, analysts argued, RCEP can open up new avenues for investments and trade providing much needed impetus for the Indian economy. By opting out of RCEP, they contended India missed becoming part of sophisticated global export chain and investment opportunities.

Interestingly, unlike other RCEP countries, India has fledging manufacturing ecosystem with service sector fuelling India’s growth. Of the 15 RCEP countries, India has trade deficit with 11 countries which account for $105 billion of which China alone accounts for $53 billion. China a manufacturing bulwark evolved into an economic superpower is currently steering the RCEP negotiations. Apparently aware of India’s hesitation to join the RCEP which can hardly cater to India’s interests, President Xi at Mahabalipuram informal summit pledged to address India’s concerns. But nothing changed on board.

China’s mercantilist policies and its denial to allow reciprocal access to its markets despite spiralling trade deficits over the years turned India into a dumping yard for cheap products. After a decade of requests, at the height of the trade tariff war with China, Beijing relented to provide market access to India’s non-Basmati rice last year. Access protocols for tobacco leaves and chillies concluded just recently. India which lacks competitive manufacturing ecosystem has abysmal record of trade exports with various FTA partners. Indeed, industries and manufacturing sector which accounts for 31% of its GDP is a distant second with service sector contributing as much as 54% of GDP. Services form the huge chunk of India’s trade and is the key driver of India’s economy. They account for 38.4% of India’s total exports. Services is the only sector where India has trade surplus. Even IMF recently suggested that services trade could fuel India’s trade engine. Interests of skilled workers employed by service sector will be undermined if access to services trade is hampered.

Ever since India signed goods FTA in 2009 with ASEAN countries there has been a significant rise in ASEAN imports to India while Indian exports hardly registered any increase. Upon India’s persistence, ASEAN agreed to sign services and investment FTA in September 2014 but Indonesia and Cambodia didn’t ratify the agreement on the pretext of Indian professionals flooding their markets. Similarly, even China continues to fiercely resist market access to India’s services sector, engineering and pharmaceuticals. Currently, India’s trade deficit in goods and services has increased to $103.63 billion from $84.45 billion despite India’s positive surge in exports.

Among the major reasons for India’s withdrawal from RCEP has been lack of assurances on market access, non-tariff barriers and threat of China flooding Indian markets. Auto-trigger mechanisms to protect countries from surge in imports are not clearly defined. Secondly, RCEP set 2014 as the base year import duties as against 2019 when India increased import duties on several goods to protect its domestic manufacturing. The losses accrued from such a scenario would inflict severe losses to Indian trade and counterintuitively impact India’s “Make in India” initiative. Further stringent rules to track the origin of the goods isn’t worked out. So effectively China can re-route its products from other RCEP countries and continue to inundate Indian markets. Above all, RCEP failed to offer a better deal for India’s mainstay- services sector through better mobility of professionals.

Another area of major concern has been agriculture and dairy. With RCEP in place dairy products from New Zealand will penetrate Indian markets throwing the livelihoods of millions of Indian marginal farmers out of gear. This will potentially exacerbate the rural distress. With the threat of cheap imported products inundating Indian markets looming large, domestic manufacturers and farmers opposed RCEP. Unlike in the past when Indian leadership caved into pressure from global powers, India reiterated that RCEP in the present form failed to “reflect the basic spirit and the agreed guiding principles” and pulled out. Previous lopsided FTAs have entailed burgeoning trade deficits. But a defiant India now refused to succumb to Beijing’s indifference.

Had China addressed India’s trade concerns and market access India must have felt confident. But China’s blatant disregard to India’s core concerns stoked India’s worst fears about benefits of RCEP. Facing an economic slowdown and uphill US trade war, China is eyeing Indian market to mitigate its losses. Now, irked by India’s withdrawal China’s state media started floating theories of India making last minute demands. ASEAN countries who earlier had a balanced trade with China are currently reeling under huge trade deficits. But because of its intricate supply chain links and other geopolitical compulsions with China, ASEAN is enthusiastically pushing for RCEP anticipating better trade and investment opportunities.

After its decision on RCEP, India affirmed that it is open for business and sought to have bilateral trade agreement with trading partners. Close on heels, India is on the brink of signing FTA with Mauritius to gain access to Africa where China has massive foothold. India is intent on expediting stalled trade agreements with Australia and the EU. While parallels are drawn between India and the US for pulling out of trade deals, RCEP and TPP respectively. Analysts, allude that both will stand to lose their significances after severing ties with multilateral trade agreements. Being second largest economy in Asia on PPP basis, RCEP countries desire India to be on board. Despite the RCEP, ASEAN will continue to look towards India as a counter balance to hegemonic China in the region,

While economic rationale guided India’s decision experts believe that this will have major geopolitical consequences. RCEP’s success will position China as a winner. By consequence Beijing is expected to have significant sway in the region. As of now, other 15 RCEP countries decided to go ahead without India. However, doors aren’t permanently closed for India. India being a large market will always be a lucrative trade and investment destination. RCEP’s bottom lines will push India towards making its markets more competitive.

By staying away from RCEP, India refused to compromise with its core business interests. India’s audacious move exemplifies its reluctance to be a “junior player in economy and trade”. Earlier India rejected China’s BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) over the concerns of territorial sovereignty. Now India rebuffed trade deal that ignored India’s vital trade interests. India’s bold decision must certainly ring bells in China.

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Episodic air pollution emergencies exemplify political apathy

Yesterday, national capital has made it to the global headlines for becoming the Worst Polluted city in the World. The Air Quality Index (AQI) ratings was seven times higher than the second polluted city, Dhaka. A thick blanket of smoke engulfed the capital region on October 29th triggering health crisis.  Right to clean air is must for a healthy living. Unfortunately, the government agencies have collectively failed in providing this basic necessity.

With air quality index breaching hazardous plus mark, Supreme Court mandated Environment Pollution (Prevention Control) Authority (EPCA) declared health emergency. A government declared health emergency is often accompanied by holidays to the schools as children are worst affected by the air pollution. Delhi invoked health emergency in January this year. Within a span of nine months, the region is witnessing another air pollution crisis. This yearly episodic recurrence reflects the apathy of the government agencies which refuse lessons despite health emergencies.

Aside summoning volunteers to report and stop burning of biomass, the State Government rolled out odd-even vehicle rationing scheme with some riders to curb air pollution. This off-cuff, cursory, odd-even policy exempts two-wheelers, vehicles driven by women and physically handicapped, vehicles which run on CNG and carrying school children. Previously Delhi government has been invoking odd-even whenever pollution peaks in the region as a stop gap measure. Delhi government introduced the even-odd on the premise of four wheelers contributed for 10% of air pollution.  Unfortunately, even after two editions of odd-even, the measure is incomplete and ineffective in terms of enforcement as it exempted major chunk of vehicles.

Major cities across the world have sturdy public transportation system discourage private vehicle use. On the contrary, Delhi with a history of high air pollution has highest number of vehicles in India. Successive governments failed to put in place a well-connected safe public quintessential to curb pollution. Taking cognizance of high levels of emissions from the power plants in Delhi, Supreme Court last year ordered the shutdown of Badarpur thermal power station in South Delhi. But the emissions from various SMEs located in the region are a major concern. Studies by IIT-Kanpur showed that road dust accounted for 35% of air pollution in the city. But barely any notable measures have been taken to address it expect for spraying water on foliage during the health emergency in random places.

While the third round of odd-even is being out rolled today with much fanfare, reports from different agencies gave varying accounts of previous editions. Unanimously every report contended that this reduced the congestion on roads and marginally decreased PM 2.5 levels but offered minimal respite. Despite rather unsatisfactory results, state government enthusiastically is lapping up ineffective measures for optics to avoid the rumours of not doing anything.

Emissions from stubble burning, power plants, transport emissions and construction plants cause air pollution. Evidently, a single measure will hardly make any difference and a multi-pronged strategy must be in place to tame pollution. Against this approach, state government imposes ban on construction activities for a week when pollution level shoots up and stops the entry of heavy vehicles into city during the stated period. But this year, the government which is grappling with the roll out of RFID tags managed to get it right just few days back didn’t enforce any such curbs the movement of heavy vehicles and trucks into city around this time. With elections closing in, as a desperate state government indulged in distribution masks to school children to tide growing criticism over its inaction and resorted to blame game. Barring above mentioned ritualistic pollution curbs, state government hasn’t instituted long term policies to curtail pollution.

Stubble burning in the neighbouring states has been one of the major causes for the toxic air engulfing the capital region. The inexpensive crop burning practice has been in vogue for centuries. The task of preventing farmers from stubble burning a collective responsibility of governments of all the states can make huge difference. Reinforcing the need for curbing this practice, Supreme Court imposed ban on crop burning to control air pollution. After state governments of Punjab, Haryana, UP expressed concerns of extra financial burden, Centre offered to provide 50% financial help to individual farmers towards the purchase of machinery that chop residues into smaller pieces and spread on soil or 80% financial assistance to farmers cooperatives or self-help groups for establishing farm machinery banks for hiring of crop residue machinery. Government approved funds worth Rs 1150 crore for the year of 2018-19. But in absence of strict enforcement and concern from respective state governments, farmers are burning the residues after harvesting. Over 22,000 stubble burning cases are reported so far. Punjab with far more cases of crop cases as against previous year topped the list. With four thousand cases, Haryana witnessed little lower stubble burning cases.

Taming air pollution in landlocked region like Delhi is a humongous task. The hazardous affects of air laden with particulate matter is exacerbated by low wind speeds and poor rainfall in this region. Until unless all the stakeholders take active interest and work together in perfect harmony, air pollution will continue to pose severe health risks to residents.

In this regard government and respective state government must heed attention to the recommendations made by experts like MS Swaminathan. He recommended setting up Rice Bio Parks popular in Vietnam that effectively uses the stubble for making paper, cardboard and animal feed. Aside keeping in check vehicular emissions by promoting electric vehicles, public transport system with last mile connectivity must be put in place. Coal based units must be discouraged and existing units should be shifted to distant places. 

Air pollution is taking a toll on health with doctors warning of an impact on the life span. Respiratory disorders and hospitalisation have become more common among children. Residents of Delhi are aggrieved. They feel cheated by the political dispensation which hasn’t offered any respite from this longstanding problem. Indian politicians are known for their penchant to address issues that earn them electoral returns. Middle class is terribly upset. Parties that fail to address public concerns will be shunted out. Back in 2003, Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit won the elections on the agenda of “saaf haava”. Despite initial setbacks and resistance from sectors, she introduced CNG and revamped the public transportation by introducing CNG buses. Pollution has been a political issue. With elections around the corner, Kejriwal can no longer fool the people with half-hearted cursory measures. People’s anger is palpable. Any political dispensation which seeks to win Delhi assembly elections must come up with workable solutions to provide Delhiites some respite from the pollution else they will risk missing electoral bus and losing people’s confidence. Excuse for inaction is no longer acceptable.

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Synergizing ties with Saudi Arabia

Given India’s centuries old connect with the countries in the Gulf region, India has always aspired to build strong ties with the Middle East. But the elephant in the room has been Pakistan. In 2006, King Abdullah on his historic visit to India signed the “Delhi Declaration” injecting fresh momentum to the bilateral ties. Reciprocally in 2010, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh elevated the bilateral engagement to strategic partnership by signing the “Riyadh Declaration”. Despite best efforts by the Indian leaderships, New Delhi failed to override the religion card played by our western neighbour. Finally, Prime Minister Modi crossed this religious rubicon and cultivated extensive ties with Muslims countries since 2014.

Saudi Arabia, is currently the fourth largest trading partner of India with bilateral trade volumes reaching $28 billion. India imports 18% crude and 32% LPG from Saudi. It is home to 2.6 million Indian community, the largest Indian expatriate community abroad and source of $11.239 billion remittances. As birth place of Islam with two holy mosques -Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia is considered as a sacred land by Muslims all over the world. India with over 200 million Muslims has deep religious with Saudi. The mainstay of Indo-Saudi relations are robust energy ties, people to people connect and changing geopolitical realities.

Months into power, Modi held bilateral talks with King Salman along the sidelines of the Brisbane G-20 summit in 2014. Barring 2017, when the Kingdom was represented by a foreign ministry official, Modi engaged with Saudi leadership at various G-20 summits. In 2016, as a special gesture, in recognition of India’s valued friendship, King Salman honoured Modi with the “Sash of King Abdul Aziz”, Saudi Arabia’s highest civilian award on his first visit to Riyadh.

In 2018, India represented by Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj was accorded “Guest of Honour” at the Janadriyah cultural festival who inaugurated Indian pavilion.  Amidst concerns of human rights violations and global condemnation, in the wake of Jamal Khashoggi’s brutal murder, Modi held talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) along the margins of the Buenos Aires G-20 summit, November 2018 and extended an invitation to visit India.  Days after the brutal Pulwama attack, Saudi Crown Prince MbS visited India in February, 2019 Though he disappointed India by failing to name Pakistan for the dastardly terror attacks, he condemned terrorism in all forms and manifestations and signed agreement to strengthen counter terrorism cooperation. He announced over $100 billion investments in Indian infrastructure and oil projects, named India as one of the eight strategic partners for investments and proposed establishment of strategic partnership council.

To overhaul its oil-dependent economy and diversify into service and manufacturing sectors Saudi Arabia ambitiously launched “Saudi Vision 2030” to usher the kingdom into a new realm of economic and social reforms in 2016. Saudi’s economic reforms found a special mention in the World Bank’s recent report. In global rankings, Saudi is now ranked 62, just above India. Accordingly, Saudi initiated various economic reforms and opened up businesses for investment. In 2017, Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund started the first annual Future Investment Initiative (FII), investment forum at Riyadh. The first edition of the FII themed on Artificial Intelligence, big data, crypto currencies and climate change was well attended. Affirming its commitment to modernise Saudi, MbS announced some social reforms like allowing women to drive etc giving a huge fillip to Kingdom’s image which is considered as Mecca of radical Islam. Popular as “Davos of the Desert” the forum except for the social reforms messaging, hardly attracted any international investments. The second edition in 2018 plagued by global condemnation witnessed last minute boycotts by World leaders and financiers. Even the much-anticipated listing of Saudi Aramco was delayed.

MbS keen on ramping up economic ties, post second edition of FII, visited Asian countries and identified strategic partners for investments which included- South Korea, Japan, China, India, the US, the UK, France and Germany. India’s consistent growth rates with promising investment and trade opportunities suited Saudi’s objective of generating sustainable benefits. At the Osaka G-20 summit, MbS extended King Salman’s invitation to attend and deliver key note address at the 3^rd edition of FII to Modi.

Themed on “What is next for global business”, Modi flew to Riyadh on Oct 28^th to address the Plenary session of FII. Speaking at the inaugural session of the three-day forum, attended by heads of states of nine countries and 6000 representatives, Modi emphasised on India’s goal of becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2024. Promising a stable, predictable and transparent policy regime of his government, Modi sought investments in the energy sector that has immense potential for growth and reflected on India’s $100 billion investments in oil and gas infrastructure. Modi’s mentioned about India’s improved ease of doing business rankings. He called upon investors to support India’s startups which are now the third largest in the World and operating in hospitality, medical treatment, transportation, tourism and food delivery. He stressed on the need for easing mobility of talent and manpower. He spoke about India’s plans of investing $1.5 trillion investment to offer a range of amenities to people through an integrated grid comprising of power grid, water grid, mobility card and optical fibre network.

In his short visit of 24-hours, Modi met King of Jordan who was invited for the FII meeting and reviewed bilateral ties. He appreciated his role in promoting harmony and speaking against terrorism. He met three ministers of Saudi Arabia-Minister of Energy, minister of Labour and social development and minister of environment, water and agriculture Saudi Arabia. Modi attended lunch hosted by King Salman, reviewed bilateral ties and various international issues.

After India rescinded special status to Kashmir, Khan travelled to Riyadh twice to obtain Riyadh’s endorsement for its anti-India propaganda. Saudi has a dominant sway over Muslim World and its tacit approval could tilt countries in Pakistan’s favour. But Saudi stayed away from the Kashmir issue. An irked Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi even lamented “guardians of Ummah (Islamic community) not supporting Pakistan” and Pakistan has to “wage a new struggle”.

Preparing ground for Modi’s scheduled visit to Saudi, NSA, Ajit Doval travelled to Riyadh and the UAE in the first week of October and discussed wide range of issues including the Kashmir issue. The official note released by NSA stated, “The Crown Prince expressed understanding about India’s approach and actions in J&K”. Saudi’s endorsement not only blunted Pakistan’s global propaganda but also established India as a valued customer of oil, strategic and economic partner of Saudi. Needless to say, Modi’s relentless outreach with the Gulf through bilateral visits and extensive engagement has made a world of difference.

Known to be global messiah for the radical Islam, Saudi’s disapproval of terrorism is viewed with scepticism. But India and Saudi signed an agreement on extradition and counter terrorism and intelligence sharing. Saudi’s silent extradition of wanted fugitives added an element of trust into the bilateral ties.

During Modi’s visit, transforming decades of buyer-seller relationship, countries launched Strategic Partnership Council, integrated India’s e-Migrate with e-Thawtheeq, Saudi’s portal to streamline the mobility of workers, launched Ru Pay card adding a fresh chapter in people to people ties. After the UAE, Singapore, Bahrain, Bhutan Saudi became fifth country to accept Ru Pay card. Clearly, India’s partnership with Saudi now encompasses a gamut of avenues.

Giving a major fillip defence cooperation for enhancing maritime security, countries will be holding joint naval exercises in December. Furthering the cooperation India and Saudi signed 12 MoUs in the areas of renewable energy, security cooperation, combatting illicit trafficking, defence production and military acquisition, civil aviation, medical regulations, Small and Medium Enterprises, Diplomatic studies, Indian strategic petroleum reserves, Stock exchanges and e-payments. Economic engagement is becoming the corner stone of contemporary strategic partnership.  Aramco’s decision of acquiring $15 billion worth 20% stakes in RIL and partnering in the West Coast Refinery to be set up at Raigadh in Maharashtra will open a new era in economic cooperation. Saudi pledged to contribute towards the strategic reserves at two places with capacity of 6.5 million tons each.

A significant achievement of Modi’s current visit besides ensuring stable energy supplies is a tacit affirmation from Saudi of “categorical rejection of all forms of interference in the internal affairs of countries”.  Accordingly, Saudi must now stay clear of Kashmir issue with India asserting that as its internal affair. Reiterating India’s position, Modi in an interview to Arab News stated that India will stay away from the region’s conflicts and will respect principles of sovereignty and non-interference.

IMF slashed growth predictions for Saudi from 1.9% to 0.2% due to cuts in oil productions. After the attacks on oil infrastructure, agencies down graded Saudi’s rating. Economy is in dire straits. Unending conflicts, sectarian violence and strife for domination in the region isn’t really presenting a vibrant picture of the desert kingdom. Saudi’s attempts to woo investors haven’t met with significant success thus far. At this juncture, economic engagement with a growing economy like India with unquenchable appetite for energy resources and investments can be valuable for Saudi. American oil sanctions regime and the uncertainty pertaining to it threatened to impede India’s growth run. A robust energy partnership and participation in India’s strategic reserves supplies by Saudi can buffer India’s energy interests from the vagaries of uncertain oil supplies. On his short visit to Riyadh, Modi successfully synergised the bilateral ties by forging a new tactical relationship.

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