China’s brazen incursions push Taiwan into American Orbit

 

Thanks to the China-Originated Wuhan Virus, while the World is reeling under the disastrous impact of the major health emergency, China not only posted positive growth, employing “Mask Diplomacy” with connivance of WHO Beijing escaped scrutiny. Beijing’s treachery, stealth, deception and subterfuge are now an open secret. Notwithstanding the dangerous export of the virus China began fostering its expansionist pursuits and opened several fronts.

For over four months China has locked horns with India over the border issue. Several rounds of Senior Level Commanders meetings, talks between Defence Ministers of both countries and even the five-point consensus reached by the foreign ministers of both sides failed to resolve the logjam. With an unparalleled history of flagrant violation of agreements and blatant disregard for international rules, China’s credibility has hit rock bottom. Having suffered the consequences of trusting Beijing, India is insisting on nothing less than, “complete and verifiable disengagement of Chinese troops” at LAC. The dangerous escalation of tensions between the nuclear-countries brought them on the precipice of war. Compounding the threats to regional peace, China is now recklessly stirring hostilities with the US and Taiwan.

Reinforcing Beijing’s reunification of Taiwan agenda, towards the end of 2019, President Xi issued an unveiled threat, “We don’t promise to renounce the use of force and reserve to use all necessary measures”. Recognition of Taiwan’s COVID-19 practices as “the gold standard” for containing the pandemic outbreak by the Democratic World, fuelled China’s insecurities. Deeming it as a threat to “One China Policy”, Beijing indulged in blatant destabilising behaviour. With characteristic uptick in air space intrusions and live fire drills, Beijing began to corner Taiwan.

Having crushed traces of dissent with iron fist in Xinjiang province, muzzled pro-democratic voices through the hurriedly National Security legislation for Hongkong and replicating the military-styled repression and re-education camps in Tibet, Beijing turned its attention to Taiwan. Beijing intensified its overt and covert attacks on Taiwan after President Tsai-Ing Wen took to office for the second time.

Unlike the Obama administration, Trump who logically acknowledged Pentagon’s strategy report of China’s revisionist agenda, believed the need for a, “strong, prosperous and democratic Taiwan” for rules-based order. Committed to faithfully implement Taiwan Relations Act, signed the 2018 Taiwan Travel Act that facilitates reciprocal visits of high-level US officials to visit and vice versa and approved $8 billion Defence sales, the highest ever to Taiwan in 2019. In April 2020, Trump administration passed 2020 TAPEI Act - Taiwan Allies International Protection Enhancement Initiative elevating the global status of China’s so-called renegade province, recognised by 15 countries and ruffled feathers with Beijing. At the height of the pandemic, in an open rebuke to China, US strongly advocated for WHO membership for Taiwan.   

US established formal ties with Taiwan, Republic of China (ROC) in 1949. Both countries signed Mutual Defense Treaty in 1954. Subsequently, all branches of US armed forces under the US Taiwan Defense Command with 30,000 troops and 4 squadron began to operate from Taipei Fine Arts Museum and Chin Chuan Kang airbase respectively. But by April 1979, US withdrew forces from Taiwan creating a gap in the US presence in the Western Pacific in exchange for establishing diplomatic ties with PRC ¹⁰.

The US and China formally agreed on three Joint communiques, that determined the course of the Sino-US relations. As per the first Communique, also called Shanghai Communique signed in 1972 by President Richard Nixon and Chinese Premier Chou En-lai, the US formally acknowledged that, “all Chinese on either side of Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is part of China”¹. Affirming this objective, the US pledged to withdraw all US forces, military bases and installations from Taiwan. With the Joint Communique on Establishment of Diplomatic Relations which came into effect from Jan 1^st 1979, countries agreed to, “neither should seek hegemony on the Asia-Pacific region or in any other region of the World and each is opposed to efforts by other country or group of countries to establish such hegemony” ².

In exchange for establishing diplomatic ties with People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1979, the US abrogated the Mutual Defense Treaty with Republic of China (Taiwan), snapped formal political relations but continued to preserve economic, cultural and unofficial ties with Taiwan. Within nine months of establishing diplomatic ties with the US, China signed similar agreement with Japan. As per the 1982 August 17^th Communique (third one), the US reiterated that it “has no intention of infringing on Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity or interfering in China’s internal affairs, or pursuing the policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan” ³.

But the declassified cables now reveal that in July 1982 the Regan government accepted Taiwan’s proposed points also known as “Six-Assurances” laid the framework for conducting US-Taiwan relations. These included- “the US wouldn’t set a date for termination of sale of arms to Taiwan; US wouldn’t consult PRC on arms sale to Taiwan; US wouldn’t mediate between the two Chinas; US wouldn’t alter Taiwan Relations Act; the US wouldn’t alter its position regarding sovereignty over Taiwan and wouldn’t exert pressure on Taiwan to enter into negotiations with the PRC; the US wouldn’t formally recognise Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan” ⁵.

While the US has recused itself from the obligation of rescuing Taiwan in case of PRC invasion, it pledged to provide all defence services to buttress the self-defence abilities of the island. The nature of the services will be decided by the President and the Congress. This element of America’s “strategic ambiguity” is now under test.

Amid rising tensions between China and Taiwan, demonstrating Washington’s commitment to Taiwan, two declassified cables made appearance on the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT)’s website. Besides, reminding China of its commitment of resolving the Taiwan Straits issue peacefully, the cables asserted America’s right to increase arms sale if China threatens the stability of the region.

Mired in trade disputes, spying charges, culpability of COVID outbreak, Sino-US ties are at the lowest. But undeterred by the plummeting ties, Trump administration launched, “Fortress Taiwan” effort and cobbled up enough political support to finalise $7 billion arms deal which include- Lockheed Martin’s High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), Boeing’s AGM-84H/K SLAM-ER (Standoff Land Attack Missile Expanded Response) weapons systems, cruise missiles, MQ-9B Reaper drones and underwater sea mines to Taiwan ⁶.

After US Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar visit to Taiwan last month and the six-day long Czech Senate President Milos Vystrcil’s arrival in Taipei with his 90-member delegation comprising politicians, entrepreneurs, scientists and journalists spooked China. Warning Taiwan of severe consequences, China began air and naval exercises inside Taiwan air defence buffer zone, close to Pratas Atoll held by Taiwan.

Last week, after US refused to cancel the trip of US undersecretary of state for Economic Development, Energy and Environment Keith Kranch and his delegation to attend memorial service of former President Lee-Teng Hui, China launched series of attacks. PLAAF fired a Long March Rocket carrying satellites directly over Taiwanese skies, sent a warship past Taiwan coast, flew anti-submarine aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ. Kranch is the highest US senior level officer ever to visit Taiwan since 1979.

Indeed, even former Japanese Prime Minister arrived in Taiwan to attend the memorial service of former Taiwanese President carrying Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s message for holding first direct telephonic conversation with President Tsai⁷. Threatening of ‘necessary action’, coinciding the memorial service, China sent 19 fighter jets, bombers and intelligence gathering aircrafts which breached the Median line, mutually agreed marine boundary. In retaliation Taiwan scrambled jets and deployed air defense missile systems asking China to “back off”.

While China continued to defend its military adventurism under “One China Principle” and denied existence of median line, Taiwan shot back and recalled the concept of Median line being established by the US to prevent conflicts between the Communists in China and Nationalists of Taiwan post-Chinese Civil War in 1949 ⁸. Now calls for stationing troops and returning to airbases in Taiwan in the US are gathering strength owing to growing Chinese belligerence⁹. 

Countering China’s threats, US increased the frequency of sending war ships through Taiwan Straits. As a direct message to Beijing, the US conducted Valiant Shield 2020 live fire missile drills near Guam and sunk a retired US warship^11.  Reciprocally, China announced live fire drill near Bohai Sea from Sep 21^st to Oct 1^st and PLAAF released a video of H-6 bomber making a simulated strike on US base at Guam¹². While the Taiwan foreign Minister called on the international community “to condemn CCP for its dangerous and provocative words and deeds” demonstrating the resolve to safeguard its territory, President Tsai visited outlying Penghu Magong Airbase. 

With proclamations of “for millennia, peace has been in the veins and DNA of Chinese nation” on one hand and frenzied incursions on the other, China’s double-speak stands exposed. As of now, China intruded into Taiwan’s ADIZ for 6^th time in a week ¹³. Mindful of its military heft, which is no match to China’s massive PLA forces, Taiwan is planning to increase economic ties to incentivise America to come to its aid if China were to launch an attack. China accounts for 42.3% of its exports as against America’s 14.7%. Attempting to reverse this trend, Tsai has slowly lifted ban on America’s pork and beef products. Keen on re-routing its supply chains, Tsai hosted dinner for Under Secretary Krach and invited Morris Chang, founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co for a collaboration in the Semi-conductor industry following Huawei’s ban from American markets. Clearly, an official bilateral trade agreement would go a long way in cementing economic ties.

Interestingly, days before Krach’s visit to Taiwan, Congressman Tom Tiffany introduced a bill for resuming formal ties with Taiwan and begin negotiation for US-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement. The bill fraught with serious consequences of impacting ties with China and sounding death knell to China’s One-China Policy might be difficult to pass¹⁴. Despite the egregious attacks, China continues to Taiwan’s largest trade partner and a CCP official even pledged, “to further improve policy measures and arrangements that benefit Taiwanese people” ¹⁵.

China’s economy is on a slippery slope. Wary of China’s record of using trade as strategic weapon, nations are restructuring their supply chains. Taiwan is following similar suit to escape China’s economic blackmail. Besides, demonstrating the intent to stand up to Chinese threats, Taiwan is exploring all ways to ally with the US to make up for the great power imbalance in the region. At this juncture, a bold move by Trump administration to challenge “One China Policy” can potentially halt China’s aggressive manoeuvres which are threatening peace and stability of the entire region. Bestowing official recognition to Taiwan will be a game changer.

 

1.      http://www.taiwandocuments.org/communique01.htm

2.      http://www.taiwandocuments.org/communique02.htm

3.      http://www.taiwandocuments.org/communique03.htm

4.      http://www.taiwandocuments.org/assurances.htm

5.      https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202008310019

6.      https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4011711

7.      https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/19/national/politics-diplomacy/yoshihide-suga-taiwan-tsai-ing-wen/

8.      https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202009220005

9.      https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4014519

10.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Taiwan_Defense_Command

11.   https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/21/asia/taiwan-china-warplanes-median-line-intl-hnk-scli/index.html?utm_source=twCNNi&utm_content=2020-09-21T12%3A01%3A09&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social

12.   https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1201365.shtml

13.   https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4015732

14.   https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4011647

15.   https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/china-s-threats-of-war-push-taiwan-to-boost-us-economic-links-1.646031

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India-Japan Ties in the Post-Abe Era

While the Indo-China border escalation and subsequent five-point consensus between the foreign ministers of both countries dominated the World debates, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held summit meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Putting rest to apprehensions about the spate Indo-Japanese Logistics agreement following Abe’s decision to step down due to due ill-health, on September 9^th countries have signed the crucial Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA). As of now, India signed Military Logistics Support (MLSA) with the US, Australia, France, South Korea and Singapore. ACSA would facilitate the reciprocal provision of supplies and services during exercises and training, UN peace keeping forces operations, humanitarian and disaster relief missions and evacuations during exigencies.

Coming at the height of the Indo-China border tensions signing of logistics agreement with Japan is a larger message to the common adversary in the region, China whose aggressive policies has threatened regional security and peace. Unlike the previous logistics agreements, which are tucked away as classified official documents fuelling suspicion among the strategic analysts, this agreement is placed in public domain for viewing¹. The element of transparency has also lent it special significance and reinforced mutual trust. Days after signing ACSA, Chief of Army of both countries held telephonic conversations to advance defence cooperation to realise their commitment towards Free, Open and Inclusive Indo-Pacific region (FOIP) ².  

Indo-Japanese Annual Summit, scheduled to be held at Guwahati last year December was cancelled in the wake of anti-CAA protests. Outbreak of COVID-19 posed fresh hurdles and delayed the summit meet. Notwithstanding, Abe’s resignation, Prime Ministers of both countries held a virtual summit and reviewed the bilateral ties which reached a crescendo of strategic convergence. The high point of Abe’s leadership has been nurturing of ties through personal connections with leaders. Clearly, the unusual personal chemistry between Modi and Abe paved way for an unprecedented high in Indo-Japanese ties. Abe’s pro-India tilt precedes Modi. In his first address to Indian Parliament in 2007, Abe envisaged “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity”. Anticipating rise of China and relative decline of the US, Abe believed in the idea of filling the void by building a security arrangement for the region with Asian countries. Batting for “Confluence of Two Seas”, India and Japan as anchors of Indo-Pacific, Abe laid out the precursor for the Quad 1.0. Though Abe failed to make much progress following his resignation due to health reasons after his brief first stint as Prime Minister in 2006-07, Abe rooted for “Democratic Security Diamond” after his ascension to power in 2012. In 2014, Abe became first Japanese Prime Minister to grace the Republic Day Celebrations as chief guest. Later in September, on Prime Minister Modi’s first state visit to Japan, under Tokyo Declaration, countries elevated bilateral ties to “Special Strategic and Global Partnership” ³.

Aside the bedazzling display of camaraderie of Modi and Abe praying at the Ganga Ghats in 2015, Abe on his reciprocal visit to India spearheaded broad-basing of bilateral ties. Leaders announced, “India and Japan Vision 2025: Special Strategic and Global Partnership Working Together for Peace and Prosperity of the Indo-Pacific Region and the World” and welcomed induction of Japan as permanent member in the annual Malabar Exercises which enhanced the interoperability of forces and strengthened maritime cooperation⁴. Owing to growing convergence in economic, political and strategic interests, promoting investments and implementation of key infrastructure projects, countries have signed agreement for construction of High-Speed Rail and institutionalised 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue ⁵. Breaking the nuclear rubicon, as a testimony to deepening trust, India and Japan civil nuclear cooperation agreement in 2017.

Since 1958 the mainstay of Indo-Japanese relationship has been the Official Development Assistance (ODA). In 2000, during Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s visit India and Japan established “Global Partnership”. With the commencement of annual summits in 2006, countries elevated ties to “Strategic and Global Partnership”. Under the leadership of Abe, to secure stability and peace of the region, Japan partnered with India to collectively reinforce the objective of FOIP. Bringing effective convergence between India’s “Act East” and Japan’s “Partnership in Quality Infrastructure”, seeking to develop reliable, resilient, viable infrastructure, and to counter China’s BRI, countries launched Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC). While Modi extended an iconic reception to Abe at Ahmedabad with a mega roadshow stretching for over 25km, in 2017 in a special gesture, Abe hosted Modi at his ancestral house in Yamaguchi Prefecture the first ever for a foreign leader the following year.

In 2019, along the sidelines of G-20 summit at Osaka, India and Japan strengthened measures on bilateral cooperation in third countries. Currently, India and Japan are partnering several developmental projects in Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh. North East region is India’s gateway to South East Asian region, given the precarious security situation in the region, India for long has detested foreign collaboration projects in this region. Given Japan’s historic connection with the region dating back to WWII, Modi and Abe have established, “Act East Forum” for modernisation of the land-locked North East in 2017. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and India signed an agreement worth $610 million for the first phase of North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project ⁶. Under nationalistically driven leadership of Modi and Abe, both countries elevated ties, reached consensus on global issues, launched new mechanisms of bilateral cooperation and strengthened the existing multilateral cooperative mechanisms like the Quad, the Quad Plus and JAI (Japan America India).

An inward-looking America and its receding influence in the region together with China’s growing assertive belligerence in the Indo-Pacific region has not only accelerated the multilateral cooperation between the like-minded countries of the region, Beijing’s burgeoning dominance of global supply network led to genesis of Resilient Supply Chain Initiative (RSCI). To enhance resilience and mitigate COVID-induced disruptions, cognizant of the need to diversify supplies amid worsening ties with China, India, Japan and Australia sought to restructure supply chains. Driven by the strategic objective of reshaping Post-COVID economy, with a hope to decouple from China, known to wield trade as a strategic weapon, leaders Modi, Abe and Morrison launched RSCI on September 1^st.

Being the longest serving Prime Minister of Japan, Abe’s role in transforming the political, economic, social and strategic affairs has been significant. Born in a political family originally from Yamaguchi Prefecture, his grandfather Nobusuke Kishi served as Prime Minister of Japan from 1957 to 1960. His father, Shintaro Abe has been Japan’s foreign minister and Shizo Abe first got elected as Prime Minister in 2006. After his brief one-year stint, Abe got re-elected in 2012. Besides rendering stability to Japan which had five Prime Ministers in six years, at the helm of affairs, Abe successfully brought back the economy battered by earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster to the path of recovery through the three arrows of “Abenomics”-fiscal consolidation, aggressive monetary policy and growth strategy. Under his leadership, Japan went through the largest phase of economic reforms. To mitigate challenges of the aged and shrinking working population, Abe revised the immigration policy and launched “Womenomics” in 2013 to increase participation of Women in Work force. Through government policies, subsidized day care centres, rewarding companies to hire women, Abe addressed the deeply entrenched gender bias ⁷.

On strategic front, Abe boldly advocated revision of the Pacifist Constitution, he revoked ban on the use of Self-Defense Forces to defend friendly country under attack. He also pledged to bring back the Japanese citizens kidnapped by North Korea and peacefully resolve the Kuril Islands dispute with Russia. Though Abe failed to accomplish the last two objectives, in line with growing strategic threats in the region, recognising the need for power projection capabilities, he increased military budget. Unlike the Western Allies, Abe made quick moves, established personal connections with the transactional Trump and brought back stability to the US-Japan ties. After Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership renaming the coalition of 11 countries as Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Abe held the group together and displayed his leadership mettle.

Recently, Japan evinced interest to be part of the exclusive club of the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance. Despite debates over what Japan has to offer to this club, with all the members of the Alliance-the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand now being effectively penetrated by China, some analysts are welcoming Japan’s entry into this alliance for its niche abilities ⁸. Under Abe, Japan shot back into global prominence and effectively ended the prolonged phase of economic stagnation.

Though Abe had a measured approach towards China to pander to the likes of pro-China Japanese industrialists, academicians and the Japan’s Communist party, he openly backed India during the 72-day Doklam Standoff in 2017 and condemned China’s ongoing aggressive escalation. Given his commitment to Indo-Pacific and special fondness for India, Abe will forever be reckoned as Special Friend. His formal announcement to resign due to ulcerative colitis on August 29^th has fuelled trepidation. With firmly grounded policies and consistent nurturing, Abe has laid strong foundation for a stable and longstanding relationship with India. Also, unlike in the past when Abe’s sudden departure jolted Indo-Japanese ties, Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with two-third’s majority remains the dominant political party.

Today, Abe’s right-hand man, handpicked by Abe as his Chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga is all set to take over as party Chief and Prime Minister till September 2021⁹.  71-year Shuga, son of a strawberry farmer, worked at cardboard factory and as security guard to fund his education. He entered politics in 1996 and served as communication minister in Abe’s first cabinet in 2006. Shuga shot into prominence as “Uncle Reiwa” last year after he unveiled the name of the imperial era as “Reiwa” meaning “culture is born and nourished as people’s hearts are drawn beautifully together”. Mild-mannered Shuga won the leadership polls on Monday securing 377 votes while other contenders LDP Policy chief Fumio Kishida and Defence Minister Shigero Ishibha garnered 89 and 68 votes respectively ¹⁰. His vision for the country remains in line with Abe’s objectives. With a deeply divided opposition still scrambling to find ground to discuss policies, Suga has promised to continue his predecessor’s policies. Given Beijing’s refusal to tone down its unabated aggression, Japan which is looking for a counter balance will continue to partner with India. With China relentlessly pursuing its strategic objective of “great rejuvenation”, seeking for a regional balance, democratic countries will be compelled to form a coalition and hence change of leadership will unlikely to have any major impact on the Indo-Japanese strategic partnership.

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Five-Point Consensus: Engage to disengage?

Responding to questions on his book, “The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World”, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar reiterated, “I am totally convinced that the solution to the situation (on the LAC) has to be found in the domain of diplomacy. And I say that with responsibility”.  He added, “We have agreements and understandings with China… and the agreements and understandings must be scrupulously observed by both parties, neither party should attempt to change the statusquo unilaterally. And the reality is what happens on the border, will impact the relationship, you cannot separate it”¹. Shortly after this message, Chinese foreign Minister Wei Fenghe sought a meeting with India defence minister Rajnath Singh at SCO’s Defence meeting in Moscow owing to shift in strategic advantage in favour of India at the LAC.

From Aug 29^th/30^th, ratcheting up tensions, China has not only fortified its camps along the border but stepped up deployment of troops. Like the Military commanders talks which failed to end the stalemate even the Defence Ministers talks hit a deadlock ². India insisted on the pull back of troops to Pre-May positions and China demanded that India meet it half way. Differences persisted. But India firmly refused to give in. With reports of Chinese air force on second-level alert and activation of surface to air missile batteries the propensity for a localised conflict gained strength. On Sep 6^th gun shots were fired into air at LAC, (firing at LAC last occurred in 1975) signalling a new phase in the latest escalations. Western Theatre Command issued a statement accusing India of the grave provocation, in reply Indian Army not only called the bluff of the PLA but issued a stern warning, “The Indian Army is committed to maintaining peace and tranquillity, however is also determined to protect national integrity and sovereignty at all costs”³. Given China’s record of habitual violations and subterfuge, a flurry of official denouncements and provocative posturing from the PLA and Chinese media has only validated its perfidy.

With troops of India and China now hardly 300mt away at some locations along the LAC, at China’s behest foreign ministers of both countries held in-person talks at Moscow. For the first time in the four months of LAC stand-off, countries issued a five-point consensus statement. Both countries alluded to the understanding at the two informal summits, Wuhan and Mamallapuram and agreed not to allow- “differences to become disputes”; “to continue dialogue, quickly disengage, maintain proper distance and ease tensions”; “abide by existing protocols.. maintain peace and tranquillity… and avoid escalate matters”; “communication through Special Representatives and negotiations Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on Indo-China Border affairs (WMCC)”; “expedite work to conclude Confidence Building Measures” ⁴. The chartered course of action suggested by foreign ministers didn’t have anything new. Both countries have agreed on all aforementioned issues even at the highest levels. Real problem has been China’s lack of compliance.

At the root of China’s long drawn aggressive posturing at LAC has been President Xi’s attempts to consolidate his position. COVID tremors has irrevocably tarnished Beijing’s reputations. Hurried face-savers like “mask diplomacy” and “wolf-warrior diplomacy” has compounded the damage. China’s loss of face, growing global Sino-scepticism and internal threat from the Communist Youth League (CYL) to which premier Li Keqiang and Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua belong unsettled Xi. Inimitable economic recession, food shortages, floods, protests by minority Mongols have stymied Xi’s attempts to consolidate his position. To evade scrutiny, Xi launched Yunnan Style Recitification purge in July and in August Xi’s right-hand man Wang Xiaohong warned of action against, “two-faced people” ⁵. Also, Xi, reinvigorated “great rejuvenation” or “the Chinese Dream” and invested heavily in Ladakh issue.

India’s growing assertions of reclaiming its stature as rising Civilisational state, revocation of special status to Jammu &Kashmir and growing strategic synergism with the US posed threats to China’s aspirational drive. To stave off the attention of domestic audience from the internal issues, Xi adopted an obdurate approach towards India.

Incidentally, the meticulous pre-emptive action on Aug 29^th/30^th by the Special Frontier Force (SFF) comprising majorly of Tibetan exiles which provided a tactical advantage to India also fuelled China’s fury. SFF’s action besides reigniting the latent Tibetan nationalism challenged the One-China Policy. A Tibetan resurgence is the last thing Beijing wants at a time when Taiwan is also making huge noise about repeated Chinese airspace violation. While China made no secret of its intent to clamp down all voices of freedom or autonomy with an iron-hand in Tibet, SFF’s acts of courage and bravery catapulted Tibetan autonomy to the forefront. China is now seething with anger.

Caught on the backfoot, China is making overtures for negotiations, launched psych-ops and an information war. Through repeated violations Chinese has irredeemably established its credentials as ‘the Aggressor’. China’s claims are untenable, contradicting the consensus hours after talks, China espoused its mala fide agenda.  The charade is exposed. Though India has signalled its intent with the formal induction of Rafale fighter jets, it is drawing flak from some quarters for the missing mention of India’s demand of “return to statusquo”, in the 5-point consensus. India have learnt lessons, the hard way to fritter away the strategic gains.

The Game is on!!!

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Time to play the ‘Tibet Card’

 

On the intervening night of August 29^th/30^th, Indian Army successfully thwarted the pre-emptive transgression of PLA troops into the Southern Bank of Pangong Tso and occupied all the strategic heights in the region. This development together with another PLA bid to intrude into Chumur sector foiled by Indian security forces gave New Delhi upper hand at the negotiation table. Till now, India and China military officials held six rounds of talks to deescalate tensions across LAC but countries barely made any progress.

Acting swiftly on the intelligence reports, India mobilised troops and proactively beat China at its own game. Along this propitious development, the death of a Tibetan soldier Company leader Nyima Tenzin in a landmine explosion during the patrolling along the eastern Pangong Tso belonging to Special Frontier Force (SFF22) or the Vikas battalion has grabbed immediate attention. The song of Establishment 22 of Vikasi battalion which exuded sense of gratitude of Tibetans towards India, and their burning desire to liberate Tibet has become talking point among strategic affairs enthusiasts. Tibetans consider India which offered them refuge as their second motherland.

The incidents of supreme valour and courage displayed by this special force in chasing away the PLA troops deserve a special mention. Also, it is time to delve into the origin and conception of these elite forces. On November 14^th, 1962 a week ahead of Chinese cease fire announcement, BN Mullick, Director General of Intelligence Bureau conceived an idea of stalling the Chinese aggression and liberating Tibet by training and developing a 5000-strong Tibetan guerrilla force. Worn-out and dejected, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru sought America’s financial assistance and technical expertise of CIA to train the forces. After an initial spurt of enthusiasm, the honeymoon with CIA ended and India eventually built a Tibetan force under the supervision of Maj Gen Sujan Singh Bhan nicknamed, “Mad Singh”. Krishna Menon and Lt Gen BN Kaul supported the concept of guerrilla force for covert operations. With the approval and support of Dalai Lama and his brother Gyalo Thondup after roping in Tibetan military leadership, recruitment and training of the Special Frontier Force (SFF) commenced. Also referred to as Establishment 22, the number 22 comes from the 22 Mountain Brigade served by Maj Gen Bhan. The SFF22 was initially conceptualised to serve as the special military establishment of Tibet comprising of Tibetans exclusively (now it has an additional battalion of Gorkhas). The plan initially was to engage with Chinese forces with the help of Indian Army to liberate Tibet. But under intense international pressure to maintain peace, military conflicts were abandoned. While the SFF 22 wasn’t used as planned, trained to be mountain forces, based in Chakrata (100km from Dehradun), they were soon deputed for border patrolling.

SFF works under the control of IB or currently the R&AW. It has ranks and promotions just like the Indian Army. It has been part of elite missions like installing nuclear-power sensor ELINT atop Mount Nanda Devi in 1964. Under the guise of Mukti Bahinis during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War SFF 22 inflicted devastating losses on enemies. They hold the Siachen Glacier heights and were part of Kargil war ¹. Though their sacrifices aren’t officially acknowledged they guard the treacherous mountainous passes. They were the major force in Operation Blue Star in 1984 and soon developed into primary counter-terror elite forces. The units which consist of SFF are referred as Vikas Battalion. What has been striking about Tibetans is their attachment towards India and ubiquitous antipathy towards China.

In the latest border escalations, IA and SFF 22 have been instrumental in consolidating India’s position. While stellar display of courage of Tibetan battalion is a badge of honour for India, forced to withdraw its forces, China must be riled up with Tibetans in India. Incidentally China’s insecurities stem from their inability to win over Tibetans. A series of visit by high-level Chinese officials to Tibet in the aftermath of the border stand-off rightly highlights the insecurities of Beijing.

Clearly, the ongoing Indo-China border standoff and the tumultuous Sino-US relations brought to fore discussions on Tibetan autonomy. Through brutal crackdown of dissent and voices of democracy with the National Security Law and scuttling Taiwan’s global elevation under “One China Policy”, China has single-handedly spurred the Sino-scepticism. China’s despicable disregard towards human rights is no longer a secret. Nations are no longer willing to buy China’s ludicrous defence of justifying incarceration of Uighur Muslims as countering extremism and terrorism.

In January, strengthening the Tibet Policy Act-2002, US House of Representatives successfully passed the Tibetan Policy and Support Act (HR 4331) with a bipartisan supermajority vote now awaits the Senate Foreign Relations Committee approval to become a law. Notable policy statements of the bill include- Tibetans reserve exclusive rights in aspects of education, culture, religion, language including the selection and veneration of the 15^th Dalai Lama, Chinese complicity or involvement in installing Dalai Lama chosen by Beijing will be deemed as gross violation of Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. Bill approved the Middle way approach of Dalai Lama which seeks autonomy for six million for Tibetans in Tibet, hails the self-governance and democratic institutions of Tibetan governments in exile. Takes serious note of the ruthless environment degradation by Chinese administration and mandates establishment of consulate at Lhasa ⁴.

With Sino-US ties going South, the US is steadily raking up contentious issues with China. In March, the US signed the TAIPEI Act strengthening Taiwan’s alliances, rallied for Taiwan’s WHO membership, halted extradition treaty with Hongkong, announced sanctions on officials involved with humanrights abuses in Xinjiang province. Taking serious cognisance of restricting access of foreigners to Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR), US announced sanctions on the senior Chinese officials under the Reciprocal Access to Tibet Act of 2018 on Dalai Lama’s 85^th birthday eve ³. The World is now aware of China’s brutal oppressive actions in Xinjiang. There is a growing clamour about China replicating similar strategy in Tibet.

To sinicize TAR, CCP’s approved, “Regulations on the establishment of a Model Area for Ethnic Unity and Progress in the Tibet Autonomous Region” bill which came into vogue in May ⁵. China introduced similar bill in Xinjiang before largescale detention of Uighur Muslims. The seemingly innocuous nomenclature of the bill, approves indoctrination of Tibetans, ensures gradual obliteration of cultural and religious identities of people, demands strict loyalty and adherence to the dictum of Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Since its annexation in 1959, China ruled Tibet with iron fist and strangulating their freedom further, on a state visit to Nepal in October 2019, Xi secretly signed an extradition treaty mandating the return of Tibetan immigrants.

After making the compulsory display of Chinese flags on monasteries, in a latest clandestine campaign, China ordered the destruction of Tibetan flags and even the poles that hold them ⁶. China has slowly stepped up brutal crackdown of Tibetan under the COVID cover.

Tibet is pivotal for China’s expansionist agenda. Given its vast deposits of minerals and natural resources including water strategic importance of Tibet can’t be over emphasised. Since the Indo-China border standoff, Tibet witnessed three major visits-On July 9^th, Wang Yang member of Politburo standing committee and Chairman of People’s Political Consultative Conference National Committee, fourth in the line of hierarchy visited Tibet. During his three-day visit, he called for “efforts to be centred on safeguarding the China’s unity and strengthening ethnic solidarity, resolutely combatting separatism, forestalling and defusing major risks and challenges and continuously consolidate the foundations of long-term peace and stability in Tibet” ⁷.

This was followed by Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua, (Xi Jinping’s heir-apparent) visit on Aug 3^rd. Having served in the region, Hu visited remote parts of Tibet.  At the height of simmering tensions, on Aug 14^th, Wang Yi, State Councillor, Minister of Foreign Affairs, paid a rare visit to Tibet and met leaders of TAR ².  Underscoring the importance of security and stability for the overall development of China, Yi urged leaders and diplomats to work together during these challenging COVID times. He highlighted poverty alleviation reforms, infrastructure development and progress made by the region under the BRI under the Xi’s regime. As a signal to India, Wang Yi visited the Tsona County, north of Tawang district in Arunachal Pradesh to remind India of 1962.

With larger plans of encircling and containing India, unleashing his totalitarian program on Tibet on 29^th August, addressing the seventh Central Symposium on Tibet Work Forum (TWF), President Xi emphasised the need for safeguarding the border security of Tibet as a priority ⁸. Held every five years, TWF unveils plans for Tibet for the next 5-10 years. Spelling out his agenda, he called on China to “build and impregnable fortress” to maintain stability, educate the people to combat separatism and advocate a socialism infused Tibetan Buddhism.

 Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) President Dr Lobsang Sangay called Xi’s Tibetan policy, “misguided” and “unrealistic”⁹. In the past six decades, China left no stone unturned to trample the religious, cultural of Tibetans. Besides demolishing the Larung Gar and Yarchen Gar, the largest Buddhist religious institutions, China evicted the Buddhist scholars, monks and incarcerated them in prisons. Beijing launched re-education program to indoctrinate Tibetans with communism.

2020 Freedom House ranked Tibet as not free (score of-1 on scale of 100), Civil liberties (3), political rights (-2) and placed just above Syria ¹⁰. The repressive and hard-line policies of China have claimed 154 Tibetan who self-immolated themselves as a mark of protest. For the past five decades, China developed dual purpose infrastructure in Tibet in the pursuit of consolidating the veritable “Five Fingers” envisioned by Mao. Historically India and Tibet shared a demilitarised border. With thousands of standing troops and extensive militarization Tibet is now a conflict Zone.

Tibet has been an independent country always proud of Indian heritage. The first king of Tibet Nyatri Tsenpo, son of royal family related to Buddha’s family was from India ruled over Yarlung Valley, which is cradle of Tibetan civilisation. In 5^th century, Buddhism entered Tibet from India. For several centuries, Tibet has been a strong military power in central Asia. Tibet always had cultural and religious relationship with India. India never claimed any part of Tibet in exchange for providing religious teachings to Tibetan Kings.

In 13^th century Genghis Khan occupied large swathes of land including China and Tibet. But Mongol as a patron-priest relationship with Tibet as Mongolian Khan sought religious preaching from Tibetan Buddhist Lamas and eventually embraced Buddhism. During the 18^th and 19^th centuries owing to sudden deaths of Dalai Lamas (9^th, 10^th, 11^th, 12^th) before they reached the age of twenty, promising military support, China began to interfere in Tibetan affairs. After the fall of Qing dynasty, Tibet expelled all Chinese officials in 1913. Around the same time, British dispatch Francis Younghusband to Lhasa. The British signed the Shimla Agreement on July 3^rd 1914 with Tibet and granted autonomy. Claiming Tibet to be integral part of China and pledging to liberate Taiwan, Hainan and Tibet, PLA forces invaded Tibet in 1950. Influence by advisors KM Pannikkar Ambassador to China and VK Krishna Menon with leftist-leanings, in a haste to recognise the Communist regime in China, played a second fiddle to China and disregarded her own interests ¹⁴

Now, in a show of marked brazenness, undermining the religious sentiments of Buddhists, Jains and specially the Hindus China began deployment of surface to air missile at the holiest mountain range of Kailash Mansarovar. This move of extolling the Communism which considers religion as opium of masses is bound to trigger immense backlash among the believers all religious and will heighten anti-Chinese sentiments in Tibet and India.

CTA elections held every five years is scheduled for 2021. Making an electoral pitch for the position of Sikyong (Prime Minister), the first woman candidate Gyari Dolma urged India to “abandon its cautious approach” and recognise “Tibet as an occupied land”. Though she supported the Middle Way Approach, appealing to young Tibetans she sought “self-determination” ¹¹.  Adding that “no country has been as kind to Tibetans than India. It’s our Guru”, she prodded India to back Tibet.

It is high time and as pointed by Claude Arpi, a Tibetologist, in lieu of friendship with China, Prime Minister Nehru refused to standby Tibet exhorts that India must correct the “Mistake of Century”. Nehru admitted, “We cannot save Tibet, as we should have liked to do so, and our attempts to save it might bring greater trouble to it. It would be unfair to Tibet for us to bring this trouble upon her without having the capacity to help her effectively” ¹².

Aside cancelling contracts, banning over 200 apps and tightening the FDI route, India must take on China which has been raising Kashmir issue at the UN at Pakistan’s behest and stonewalling India’s permanent membership to UNSC. China, an active member of Uniting for Consensus (UFC) headed by Italy and popularly called Coffee Club comprising of four members including Pakistan and Turkey has been stalling reforms of UNSC on the pretext of negotiations. India along with members of G4, Brazil, Germany and Japan ^13. For all the havoc wreaked upon by China at the border, India has several cards and Delhi must play the Tibet now.