Amid Trudeau’s self-goal, India Emerges Unscathed with Methodical Diplomacy

India’s spectacular success in bringing about a rare consensus at the New Delhi G20 Summit amid geopolitical turbulence seems to have had an unintended consequence. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s outrageous accusations of India on the strength of “credible allegations” without producing even a trace of legitimate evidence hints at a larger gambit of maligning India. Guided by political motives, Trudeau has recklessly escalated the Khalistan issue which is hanging as a fire over two nations.

Over ten days into this terrible diplomatic fiasco, and as expected for a democratic nation of the First World to back the allegations with irrefutable evidence, Trudeau is floundering on many fronts to garner some support from at least Five of its alliance partners baring the US. Indulging in a word circus, days after making dramatic revelations, Trudeau swiftly changed the position from “credible allegations” to “credible reasons” post-UNGA address in New York. He also added, “I can assure you that the decision to share these allegations on the floor of the House of Commons… was not done lightly. It was done with utmost seriousness”.

Despite these tall proclamations, when the opposition grilled Trudeau over the needless diplomatic row with India he had only “open source” information to offer as stated by the British Columbia premier. With the credibility of Trudeau and by extension his accusations now hanging by a thread, Canada changed its strategy.

In lieu of evidence, the Canadian government claims through media leaks of possessing “human and signal intelligence”, which can implicate the Indian diplomats in Canada. Canada’s remarks on signal intelligence ostensibly implied the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance. The US soon backed Canada and NSA Jake Sullivan apprised the media of being in touch with both India and Canada and said, “there’s not some special exemption you get for action like this. Regardless of the country, we will stand up and defend our basic principles. We will also consult closely allies like Canada as they pursue their law enforcement and diplomatic process”. Expressing deep concerns about the allegations, he stated that the US “would like to see this investigation carried forward and the perpetrators held to account”. Sullivan’s statement expecting India to cooperate with Canada reiterates Trudeau’s remarks. Ironically, Trudeau has announced that he wouldn’t release the evidence on Nijjar’s killing, “which he said may have involved Indian government agents”, noted NBC¹.

The Canadian media's boastful leaks of signal intelligence are an admission that the Indian diplomats are being snooped and this is against the Vienna Convention. As per WSJ, this “intercepted intelligence” was provided to Ottawa by the US. The journal states, “the specific US-produced intelligence was given to Ottawa after the alleged assassination occurred, the official said, and while considered helpful it was Canada’s interception of electronic communications among Indian diplomats that chiefly drove its conclusion and public accusation”. 

In response to Canada’s dillydallying and attempts to play mental games, India countered stating its reluctance to take action against Gurupatwant Singh, dual citizen and Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) chief is “because he is an agent of CIA and acting bad batting for Langley”.

Unfortunately, intelligence can’t stand the test of legal scrutiny to pass off as admissible evidence. In fact, appearing before the House Affairs Committee, RCMP Deputy Commissioner defended inaction on intelligence reports of “foreign interference” (read as Chinese interference) in 2019 and 2021 Canadian elections because “intelligence reports don’t always translate into evidence”. This was seconded by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs who said, “intelligence is not truth”. By this yardstick, the signal intelligence doesn’t translate into evidence ². But still, Trudeau attempted to coerce India with HUMANIT and SIGINT which is characteristically information but not evidence is reprehensible.

On a related note, this revelation of the US spying on friendly countries has unwittingly, lent credence to China’s accusations of Washington’s widespread global surveillance missions. America’s habitual prying has caused widespread angst in the aftermath of Snowden’s Wikileaks that unravelled Washington’s darker side. Though this eavesdropping may not directly harm the relationship as such, the lingering trust deficit would persist as a dissonant note in the India-US Strategic Partnership.

Also, what has pointedly emerged out of the US backing of Canada is Washington’s acquiescence of Ottawa’s portrayal of Nijjar as a Canadian plumber and the deliberate effacement of his terrorist precedents.  The US defended its two-decade-long war in Afghanistan as “the global war of terrorism” to safeguard its country from future terror attacks. Then, how can it be so inconsiderate to the concerns of another country facing similar terror threats? Nijjar wasn’t an ordinary plumber. But a designated terrorist with a red corner notice against him and put on the US Terrorist Screening Centre (TSC) No Fly List in 2019.

Tellingly, US remarks came a day after India’s pointed message to Canada expressing deep regret over Canada’s inaction on terrorism and organised crime. Official Spokesperson of MEA said, “We obviously condemn any threat… but we should look at the larger issue, the larger issue of terrorism. Not only terrorism but also the fact that it is funded and supported and we know this for some time from our western neighbour Pakistan… but the issue of safe havens and places to operate have been provided abroad, including in Canada.. and that.. you know we would expect that is the main focus. The question is: do we have the political will to address terrorism or do we want to justify..”³.

Clearly, India’s limited point has been about terrorism. Till 9/11 incident, when the terror struck their land, the West impetuously dismissed India’s exhortations on cross-border terror. Nijjar’s incident once again brought to the fore the selectivity of the West. While the US would take down any terror mastermind in foreign lands and justify its “transborder assassinations”, India’s legitimate insecurities are callously disregarded.

India’s numerous dossiers and repeated extradition requests went unheeded. After the deadly Kanishka bombing that killed 329 people, India and Canada signed an extradition treaty in 1987. As per available records till 2020, only six fugitives have returned to India. The extradition process with Canada fraught with complicated legal processes compounded with the Justice System’s incredulous disdain for Indian institutions ensured that the agreement “remained a paper tiger”.  In June 2023 Parliament Standing Committee proposed reforming Canada’s extradition system with an explicit proposal to withdraw from extradition treaties with 10 countries including India for not meeting “international human rights standards”⁴.

This has eerie similarities to former PM Pierre Trudeau’s halting the extradition of Talwinder Singh Parmer the mastermind of the Kanishka midair bomb explosion on the quaint grounds of India being “insufficiently deferential to the Queen”. India considered the Queen as the Head of the Commonwealth and not as head of the state. The murderous tragedy included 268 Canadian citizens. Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) was aware of the plot and the bomb tests in Vancouver. For some reason, they considered the informants untrustworthy and failed to bestow the seriousness it warranted. Further critical evidence was either lost or deliberately destroyed due to which Parmar was acquitted. His accomplice Inderjit Singh Reyal who was convicted served two-thirds of his sentence and walked free from prison in 2016.

Nijjar designated as a terrorist under UAPA (Unlawful Activities Prevention Act) was initially associated with Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) started by Parmar before assuming the role of operations chief of Khalistan Tiger Force (KTF)⁵. Both BKI and KTF are funded by Pakistan’s Inter Service Agencies (ISI). India sought the extradition of Nijjar in 2022 which now stands cancelled after his murder. But Canada seems to have learnt no lessons from history.

What is more appalling is the nonchalance to address the issue of Canada providing safe havens to the extremist and terrorist elements. Post-operation Blue Star, PM Indira Gandhi has insisted that “certain foreign powers” supported the Sikh separatism and extremist movement to destabilise India. She hinted at “CIA helping Pakistani intelligence, ISI to set up the Khalistani project”⁶. Four decades, hence the separatist movement which no longer finds resonance in Punjab is kept alive by the Sikh extremists living in the Anglosphere.

Pakistan with the active support of the CIA ignited two separatist movements- Kashmiri separatism and Khalistani separatism. Abrogation of Article 370 inflicted a devastating blow to Kashmir separatist dreams and now Pakistan has turned its focus to the Khalistan project. The massive uptick in Khalistani separatist activities and targeted attacks on Hindu temples, Hindu communities abroad and Indian diplomats in US, UK, Canada and Australia is a consequence of the same. For reasons best known to them, the West facilitated Pakistan’s dubious strategies that unsettled India, perhaps, to leverage these issues to their advantage in the larger geopolitical game plan.

But India is no longer taking kindly to these attempts. Resolutely defending its strategic territorial and security India, New Delhi exhorted, “Canada needs to look at its growing reputation as a safe haven for terrorists”. To stop the Khalistan movement from becoming soft underbelly, impelled by Trudeau’s specious accusations, NIA has launched massive raids against the aides of terrorists operating from foreign lands. 

New revelations of the alleged plumber, Nijjar meeting the CSIS agents twice a week and Canadian Parliament giving a standing ovation to 98 years old Nazi war veteran is raising doubts about Canada’s credentials. The thriving ecosystem of terror-drug-narco trade-foreign nexus and mushrooming of gangs with smuggling, and extortion as the mainstay in Canada besides posing a serious threat to India might even jeopardise the security of Ottawa in the long term. Even Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have expressed similar frustrations with Canada after India openly contested Trudeau’s unfounded and specious accusations.

The systemic undermining of India’s concerns has brought to the fore the double standards of the West and Canada’s defiance and indirect insinuating allegations of “foreign interference” had an uncanny resemblance with Pakistan’s dubiety. Reiterating India's position Jaishankar responding to a question by Kenneth Juster said, “we told the Canadians that look, if you have something specific, if you have something relevant, let us know. We are open to looking at it”⁷. But till now, Canada hasn’t shared any evidence in Nijjar’s case.

Canada’s shoot and scoot policy has irretrievably damaged the ties. Remonstrating Trudeau’s ephemeral “intelligence”, in his UNGA address, Jaishankar said, “nor must we countenance that political convenience determines responses to terrorism, extremism and violence. Similarly, respect for territorial integrity and non-interference in internal affairs cannot be an exercise in cherry-picking. When reality departs from rhetoric, we must have the courage to call it out”. By calling out Western hypocrisy, India has in fact alerted the Five Eyes Alliance that it can no longer afford to turn a blind eye to the burgeoning terror ecosystem breeding under their nose.

The “rule-based order” that the West continues to vouch for must be upheld by them. By providing a global platform to the Global South through G20, India has emerged as a connecting bridge between the Global North and Global South and donned the role of a responsible power. The West shouldn’t allow Canada to burn these bridges with impunity. Trudeau’s attempts to besmirch India’s reputation backfired after India’s befitting retaliation to Ottawa’s diplomatic escalation.

Calling for a fair, equitable and democratic world order Jaishankar said, “in our deliberations, we often advocate the promotion of a rules-based order. From time to time, respect for the UN Charter is also involved. But for all the talk, it is still a few nations who shape the agenda and seek to define the norms. This can’t go on indefinitely nor will it go unchallenged”⁸. By calling the bluff of “rule-makers” India exposed how in the name of political expediency Canada gave a free pass to the criminal activities perpetrated on its territory.

By blaming the largest democracy, the fifth largest economy with 16% of humanity, Trudeau has attempted to belittle India. But given tremendous domestic political backlash and intense global confabulations, Trudeau is forced to retrace his approach. At a press meet in Montreal, Trudeau said, I think it is “extremely important” that Canada and its allies continue to “constructively and seriously” engage with India. He added, “India is a growing economic power and important geopolitical player. And as we presented with our Indo-Pacific strategy, just last year, we’re very serious about building close ties with India”.

In this whole affair, India emerged on the top with its reputation and image untarnished and unblemished while Canada turned out to be an aberration in G7. After messing up the ties, Trudeau is attempting to make up. His intent shall be now judged by his actions.

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Courting pro-Khalistan Separatists Trudeau Recklessly Burnt Bridges with India

In less than 24 hours Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an embarrassing climb down after making explosive allegations of the Indian government’s link to the slaying of Canadian Sikh citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil.  Calling it an “unacceptable violation of sovereignty” Trudeau sparked a terrific diplomatic row with his statement at the House of Commons. Within hours, Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie announced the expulsion of the top Indian diplomat in Canada, Pavan Kumar Rai, the head of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), as per CBC.

India rejected these charges as “absurd and motivated” and stated, “The allegations seek to shift the focus from Khalistani terrorists and extremists, who have been provided shelter in Canada and continue to threaten India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The inaction of Canada over this issue has been a long-standing and continued concern”.

In a tit-for-tat diplomatic move, expressing concern at the interference of “Canadian diplomats in internal affairs and anti-India activities”, New Delhi issued a demarche to the Canadian High Commissioner to India, Cameron Mc Kay and expelled a Canadian envoy, the Canadian intelligence agency chief stationed in India Olivier Sylvestre as per Hindustan Times. New Delhi granted a stipulated five-day period to the under-cover officer to leave India.

The extreme move of expelling a diplomat of a friendly country based on “credible allegations of potential links with agents of the government of India”, without offering any evidence has in itself raised many suspicions. While the parliament unanimously approved the decision to expel the diplomat on Monday, opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre in a press briefing on Tuesday said, “the prime minister needs to come clean with all the facts. We need to know all the evidence possible so that Canadians can make judgments on that”. He reiterated, “the prime minister hasn’t provided any facts. He provided a statement, And I will just emphasise that he didn’t tell me anymore in private than he told Canadians in public. So, we must see more information”¹.

After India’s “complete rejection” of Trudeau’s claims and his failed attempts to convince allies-US, UK and Australia seeking condemnation, he backtracked on his position. Walking back on his outrageous claims, he told reporters, “The government of India needs to take this matter with utmost seriousness. We are doing that. We are not looking to provoke or escalate. We are simply laying out the facts as we understand them.”²

Trudeau’s incendiary remarks coming days after his return from the New Delhi G20 Summit have raised some valid questions. Sikh of Americans Chairman, Jesse Singh, argued, “If he (Trudeau) has the same information (regarding Indian links to Nijjar’s killing) back then, why didn’t he say that publicly while he was there (New Delhi)”³. Indeed, in a pull-aside meeting at the G20 Summit between PM Modi and PM Trudeau on September 10, PM Modi conveyed strong concerns about “continuing anti-India activities by extremist elements in Canada”. The official statement further reads, “they are promoting secessionism and inciting violence against Indian diplomats, damaging diplomatic premises, and threatening the Indian community in Canada and their places of worship. The nexus of such forces with organised crime, drug syndicates and human trafficking should be a concern for Canada as well. It is essential for the two countries to cooperate in dealing with such threats”⁴.

Khalistani separatists have scheduled a referendum for September 10 at a Canadian government school, but permission was revoked after an outrage as the posters featured AK-47  machine gun. Against the expected strength of 50,000-70,000 people only 7000 people turned up the Guru Nanak Gurudwara in Surrey, British Columbia.

In response to a question about the Khalistan issue at the G20 Summit, Trudeau raised alarm over “foreign interference” and reiterated, “Canada will always defend freedom of expression, freedom of conscience and freedom of peaceful protests and it is extremely important to us”⁵. The frayed bilateral relationship has taken a downturn owing to Trudeau’s reluctance to act despite India’s repeated appeals. This was consciously visible by the cold reception at the G20 Summit, sidelined and forlorn, Trudeau didn’t attend the official leaders' reception and to add to his woes, a technical snag in his plane further extended his stay by nearly two days.

During the G20 Summit, NSA Ajit Doval engaged with counterparts in the UK, Australia and Canada which have a substantial Sikh population over the “rise of Sikh fundamentalism” and attacks on Indian consulates. While the NSAs of Australia and the UK responded positively, the Canadian NSA “remained unfazed”. Trudeau’s political survival is beholden to support from the New Democratic Party (NDP) headed by Jagmeet Singh a vociferous Khalistan supporter. Trudeau’s liberal party entered into an agreement with NDP which secured 25 seats in the 2021 elections with an unsaid bargain of Trudeau will tread a blindfold on Khalistani issues.

Sikhs who constitute 2.1% of the Canadian population sent 17 MPs in the recent elections. With plummeting approval ratings of 33% (as per Angus Reid Institute), Trudeau is firmly rallying behind NDP and backing Khalistan supporters to revive his political fortunes.

Canadian Muslims also form the vast chunk of the electorate of Trudeau’s Liberal Party. In fact, this explains the studied silence of Trudeau to the killing of human rights Baloch activist, Karima Baloch by the ISI agents on Canadian soil. He simply chose to dismiss it as “non-criminal”, and refrained from naming Pakistan. Since Canadian Muslims of Pakistani origin never wanted any investigation, Trudeau brushed the issue under the carpet.

Khalistan Movement is supported, patronised, and financed by Pakistan to destabilise and balkanise India. The Khalistani Sikh organisations operating from Canada and other countries work in close cahoots with Pakistan’s ISI.  Ostensibly, the Khalistani extremist and head of Guru Nanak Gurudwara Surrey, Hardeep Singh Nijjar who conducted training camps for youth must have been on the Pindi’s list as well. Nijjar arrived in Canada in February 1997 seeking asylum on the premise of Sikh persecution in India. But his refugee status was rejected. He married a woman who sponsored his immigration even then his citizenship was rejected. Though Nijjar is acclaimed as a Canadian, the details of his citizenship are rather specious.

Nijjar actively advocated for an independent Khalistan carved out of India. Accused in more than 10 cases of murder, bombing, and explosive making, India designated Nijjar, the Chief of Khalistan Tiger Force as a terrorist in 2020. Even an Interpol red corner notice was issued against him. India sought his extradition in 2022 from Canada and NIA announced a Rs 10 lakh bounty on him for killing Hindu Priest in Jalandhar. He is also linked to the murder of Ripudaman Malik acquitted in the 1985 Air India flight bombing. Malik accused Nijjar of working “at the behest of foreign agencies”, while Nijjar described him as “quam ka gaddar” and that he should be “taught a lesson”. Considering his active pursuits of holding a referendum in Canada and his rivalry with other gangs, instead of charging all suspects Trudeau singled out India three months after his killing.

In the past three months, not a single arrest was made. But after Trudeau’s return from the G20 Summit, Canada suspended ongoing FTA talks. Clearly, Trudeau’s unsubstantiated allegations are part of an orchestrated smear campaign to malign India and her international status. The statement of Jocelyn Coulon, former adviser to Trudeau asserting, “India will join the group of nations that assassinate political opponents”⁶ likening it to a dictatorial monarchy in Saudi Arabia sums up the intent of the Canadian Prime Minister.

While critics allude to Trudeau’s retribution for the perceived indifference if any, during the New Delhi G20 summit. Knowing fully well the implications of baseless charges, Trudeau has tread on this disastrous trial of vitiating bilateral ties.

Canada’s strained relationship with India over the Khalistan issue is not of recent origin. In 1982, Pierre Trudeau, the father of Justin Trudeau refused to act on India’s request to extradite Talwinder Parmar facing murder charges of killing two police officers in India. Parmar who found shelter in Canada was the founder of Jathedar Babbar Khalsa International (BKI), associated with the Khalistan Movement. He was the mastermind behind the bombing of an Air India plane carrying 331 passengers which blew up over the Atlantic Ocean. To date, this is the most horrific tragedy in Canada’s history. But his pictures adorn Khalistan Gurudwaras where he is worshipped.

Under the false pretext of persecution and political discrimination, thousands of Khalistan supporters sought asylum in Canada. Khalistanis advocating secessionist movements have found safe havens in the Anglosphere. Though the Khalistan movement has lost all its oxygen in Punjab, the Khalistanis in foreign lands are attempting to reignite it. Courting the pro-Khalistani organisations, Canada justified the celebration of Indira Gandhi's assassination tableau, “Kill India” posters with names of Indian diplomats, attacks on Indian consulates, Hindu temples under “guaranteed freedom of thought, belief and expression” under section 2 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedom⁷.

Canada ignored India’s multiple extradition requests and remained uncommitted on dozens of dossiers. As per Indian authorities, nine separatist outfits supporting terror groups have found refuge in Canada⁸. After Canada escalated the ongoing diplomatic standoff by issuing a travel advisory, NIA made the photographs of 5 Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) terrorists based in Canada public and announced a reward of Rs 10 lakh for information leading to the capture of these terrorists and issued an alert to Indian Students and Citizens in Canada.

Sending across a terse message, the advisory states, “in view of growing anti-India activities and politically condoned hate crimes and criminal violence in Canada, all Indian nationals there and those contemplating travel are urged to exercise utmost caution”⁹. At a time when Trudeau leveled allegations against India, Canadian-based Arsh Dalla claimed responsibility for killing a Congress leader Baljinder Singh Balli in Punjab’s Moga district, Gurupatwant Singh Pannu of Sikhs for Justice issued threats to Hindu residents in Canada to leave the country and the National Council of Canadian Muslims (NCCM) in collaboration with the World Sikh Organisation of Canada (WSO) has presented four demands. These include- the recall of Canadian envoys from India, the expulsion of the Indian High Commissioner to Canada, the suspension of trade negotiations with India, and a ban on RSS¹⁰. For the record, Arsh Dalla has 37 FIRs registered against him.

While I was writing, in Canada’s Winnipeg, gangster Sukhdool Singh shot by unknown miscreants is making news. Ideally, instead of taking umbrage of “credible allegations” Canadian investigation agencies must carry out rigorous investigations into these killings to nip all suspicions in the bud and arrive at conclusive and irrefutable conclusions. Unlike Canada, the UK agencies swung into action and instituted an inquiry to confute conspiracy theories over the death of Avtar Singh Khanda in June, an avowed Khalistani supporter in the UK.

From erasing all references to Sikh extremism and Khalistan in 2019 to undermining Indian concerns and risking the bilateral ties, Trudeau is going to great lengths dancing to the tunes of pro-Khalistani separatists. Amid the rising wrath of voters for an economic slowdown, Trudeau is seeking to consolidate his vote bank to evade an imminent political obliteration jeopardizing the country’s interests. In a classic case of the proverbial tail wagging the dog, akin to a reckless punter, Trudeau has allowed diaspora toxic politics to spill over the bilateral arena.

Trudeau’s astounding hypocrisy of supporting farmer's protests against three farm laws to pander to the Sikh Diaspora while cracking down on peaceful truckers' march against vaccine policy back home and blatant interference in internal affairs of “stating Canada watching closely” as India hunts down Amritpal Singh have roiled the bilateral ties.

Canada has disregarded India’s concerns with impunity for decades. Considering India’s enhanced global stature and her trajectory as the fastest-growing economy, Canada can no longer be oblivious to India’s genuine concerns and terror threats. India is now proportionately retaliating to Canada’s diplomatic escalation. Unfounded accusations against India are the last straw on the Camel’s back. India and Canada make natural allies given their shared values of democracy, pluralistic society, and adherence to international law. But Trudeau’s churlish arrogance has put bilateral ties are on the brink of collapse. The onus is entirely on Canada to resuscitate them.

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IMEC: A Strategic Culmination of Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Interests

One of the consequential announcements at the New Delhi G20 Summit that piqued the interest of strategic analysts was the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). The multi-modal connectivity intends to connect India to Europe via the Middle East through a network of rail and ports.

The genesis of this project can be traced to I2U2 which was officially announced in October 2021 at the foreign ministers meeting of India, Israel, UAE and the US.  The bloc was conceived to mobilise technology and private sector capital to address the transnational shared challenges. The inaugural joint statement issued after the leaders-level summit meeting in July 2022 mentioned the six focus areas of the group- water, energy, transportation, space, food security and health. The initiatives with respect to food security and energy are already taking shape with UAE rolling out investments in India.

Other than tangible economic gains, the I2U2 is an offshoot of the US-led Abraham Accords that sought to normalise relations between Israel and the Gulf States to promote regional coexistence and peace. In the run-up to the diplomatic normalisation, since 2017 under the initiative “Tracks of Regional Peace” Israel envisioned a regional transportation system¹. In 2019, Israel’s foreign minister officially unveiled the plans to extend the rail tracks in northern Israel to Haifa seaport which would link to Jordan’s rail network which is already connected to Saudi Arabia. As per the plans, Israel would serve as a land bridge between Europe and Gulf states with Jordan as the regional hub². This framework gathered great significance following the establishment of diplomatic ties between Israel and the UAE in September 2020.

At the I2U2 talks, Israel proposed the plan of connecting the Middle East region through Railways. Each of the partners of I2U2 brought their expertise to the table and this unique combination was put to task to realise shared goals. Part of the plan was to use India’s expertise in large infrastructure plans like Railways. Saudi Arabia was included in the plan much later.

With China making swifter forays into the Middle East, the idea began to gain momentum and the NSAs of India and the US who have been regularly meeting beginning the sidelines of the Quad Summit firmed up this idea. In May 2023 the NSAs of India, the US, UAE, and Saudi Arabia met in Riyadh. As per the White House read out the objective of the meeting was a “shared vision of a more secure and prosperous Middle East region interconnected with India and the World”.

Ahead of the meeting, media agencies alluded that the new grouping would announce plans to develop joint infrastructure that would connect Gulf and Arab countries via Railway connection and India would join the network through shipping lanes³.

US NSA Jake Sullivan's address at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy hinted, “if you remember nothing else from my speech, remember I2U2, because you will be hearing more about it as we go forward”. Stating that one of the pillars of Biden administration’s strategy is the regional integration of the Middle East. “A more integrated, interconnected Middle East empowers our allies and partners, advances regional peace and prosperity, and reduces resource demands on the US, in the region over the long term without sacrificing our fundamental interests or our involvement in the region”⁴.

Now putting all these isolated strands together, the concrete plan of IMEC would manifest in its entirety. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s in his video message post-official launch of IMEC said, “They announced the launch of a pioneering initiative to develop an economic corridor from India, through the Middle East, to Europe. I am pleased to inform you, citizens of Israel, that our country, the State of Israel, will be a central junction in this economic corridor”⁵. Last but not least, PM Modi’s visit to Greece while returning from the Johannesburg BRICS summit has finally sealed this plan.

A culmination of a strategic foreign policy with the right mix of geoeconomics has eventually blossomed into a connectivity corridor. Albeit its subtle undertones, the corridor is characteristically a counter to the expanding footprint of China in the Middle East with numerous strategic implications. Hence by no stretch of imagination, IMEC is not a hurriedly cobbled-up initiative.

Sturdily backed by the US, other than economic gains, one of the foremost objectives from the US-Israel perspective is to unite regional partners against the primary adversary Iran. To circumvent the threats posed by Iran to the cargoes in the Bab-al-Mandab Strait. Surface transport through the region will drastically reduce security vulnerabilities, especially in the Persian Gulf region.

The proposed IMEC has Eastern Corridor which will connect India to the Arabian Gulf and the Northern Corridor will link the Arabian Gulf States to Europe. This seamless connectivity besides enhancing economic integration is estimated to cut the cost of transportation of Indian goods by 30% and time taken by 40%. Once the rail connectivity is complete, goods and services can be trans-shipped from South East Asia through India and the Middle East to Europe. Besides boosting trade and exports, for enhanced global interconnectedness, the corridor will have underground sea links, electricity grids, renewable power and hydrogen pipelines. Officially launching the IMEC- India, US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy and the EU commission have signed a MoU at the G20 summit.

After signing the MoU, Italy, the only G7 country to join China’s BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) signalled its intent to withdraw. With China’s 10^th BRI anniversary drawing to a close, the ambitious project that was instrumental in expanding Beijing’s footprint far and wide is now under scrutiny. The dire economic straits of countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Zambia, Kenya battling with ‘White Elephant’ infrastructure assets and mounting debts and the political crisis seeded by the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) investments in Balochistan are raising apprehensions about the transparency and viability of BRI projects.

Unlike the Chinese-driven BRI projects, the sovereign countries of IMEC which together account for $47 trillion or nearly half of the global GDP have deep pockets with incredible growth capacities that can stimulate economic development. Sans a recipient-donor relationship, IMEC countries are equal partners with plans to build their own infrastructure.

Driven by India, the US, UAE and Saudi, the main focus is to secure global supply chains, increase trade accessibility and improve trade facilitation. Additionally, President Biden has committed to supporting IMEC under the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) which can potentially mobilize $600 billion in investment.

Alerted by the fallout of BRI, PM Modi affirmed- “Connectivity initiatives are consultative, transparent and participatory with respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries. Principles of financial responsibility and economic viability to avoid the creation of unsustainable debt burden to recipients and conforming to ecological and environmental standards must be followed” and added, “connectivity is a source of increasing not only mutual trade but also mutual trust between different countries”⁶.

With the basic operative infrastructure already in place, barring a small stretch of railroad in Saudi Arabia, the entire corridor can be activated soon. In a joint pledge, the participating countries have committed to work on a diligent action plan, source of funding, network route, design and allocation of work within the next 60 days of signing the MoU⁷.

The denial of overland access by Pakistan and the absence of physical connectivity constrained India’s entry into the Eurasian and Central Asia region. IMEC holds the promise of unlocking tremendous trade opportunities and bestows strategic and economic advantage. This will reduce costs, enhance efficiency, promote economic cohesion, generate jobs, cut greenhouse emissions, and promotes self-reliance. This will be a great boost to Make in India, Sagarmala and Atmanirbhar Bharat.

The project envisions three industrial corridors- food, green energy (solar, wind, and green hydrogen), and knowledge corridor opening up a slew of opportunities for Indians by way of digital connectivity and innovation collaborations with Israel⁸. The corridor can serve as a green and digital bridge connecting continents and civilisations.

Advocating de-risking as opposed to decoupling, the US and Europe are seeking access to India’s expanding consumer markets through IMEC to balance China. Given the long-term nature of the development of alternate infrastructure of the corridor, India must have a mix of public and private funding for these projects. IMEC would be an invaluable addition to the existing global trading routes and India must remain engaged with other routes like the Suez Canal, and the International North-South Corridor including the Vladivostok and Arctic Routes.

Over the past nine years, India under PM Modi invested diplomatic currency in strengthening ties with Gulf states, especially UAE and Saudi Arabia. Shedding hesitations of history, India has deepened her wide-ranging partnership with the US. Through extensive outreach and engagement, New Delhi has consolidated strategic partnerships with European countries. Besides challenging China’s growing clout, meticulously aligning India’s geopolitical interests and developmental needs with converging security interests of the West and Middle East, India engaged with multiple partners to launch this connectivity corridor.

With an immense demographic dividend and enormous growth potential, India is rapidly exploring every opportunity to reshape India’s growth trajectory. As per IMF estimates, India will contribute 15% of global growth in 2023 and will remain a major driver of growth for the entire decade⁹.

Turbo-charged to revive and enliven the glory as the top global economy with trade links that ran far and deep across the globe, India is going back to its past by attempting to rebuild strong ties with the Arab nations. Ancient India’s trade routes criss-crossed the Gulf and Indian products reached European shores through the Middle East. IMEC Corridor is thus, India’s attempt to rediscover its old trading heritage.  In his interview with CNN News 18, EAM Jaishankar stated, “Connectivity with Middle Eastern countries is deep rooted in Indian civilisation” and alluded to India’s prosperity that stemmed from its international trade.

IMEC can thus be a potential game-changer. India must invest in it to realise her dreams of a developed nation by 2047.

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100% Consensus on New Delhi Declaration: A Testament to India’s Deft Diplomacy

Turning his prophetic words into action- “Our G20 Presidency strives to bridge divides, dismantle barriers, and sow seeds of collaboration that nourish a world where unity prevails over discord, where shared destiny eclipses isolation”, India’s G20 presidency has delivered it all. Setting forth an ambitious vision of: “One Earth, One Family and One Future” drawn from the guiding civilisational ethos of Bharat, “Vasudaiva Kutumbakam” India has turned the G20 into a people’s movement.

Expanding its reach, taking it to every nook and corner of this vast country, roping in numerous stakeholders, and involving the state governments upholding the true spirit of cooperative federalism, India has revolutionized the multilateral functional framework of the G20. As part of the G20 presidency, India held 220+ meetings in 60 cities, hosted 43 Leaders (heads of state/government), and felicitated over 25,000 delegates of 115 nationalities.

Suffusing the G20 summit with indigenous ethos, showcasing the eternality of this civilization and stoically managing the contemporary geopolitical turbulences, India forged the near-impossible wide-ranging global consensus. The issues spanned- sustainable growth, technological transformation, clean energy, SDGs, reformation of multilateral institutions, international taxation, financial sector issues, gender equality, terrorism and the creation of an inclusive world.

Deploying a human-centric approach, working relentlessly with the developed world and the developing economies, India has brought to the fore the New Delhi Declaration which was unanimously approved by all the members. This roadmap can steer the course in these geopolitically uncertain times ridden with conflict and animosity.  The declaration mirrored the certitude of India positioning her as a responsible power capable of leading and offering solutions. Instead of reducing inclusivity to a footnote, India facilitated it by lending a voice to the African Union (AU) and making it the 21^st member of the group.

Objectively clear about its vision for the G20 Presidency, a month after taking up the mantle, India virtually hosted the Summit of Voice of the Global South participated by 125 countries, a majority of which were from were Global South. India empathised with their concerns. Putting upfront the interests of the Global South, prioritising their insecurities, pushing for fairer practices and batting for reforms of multilateral development banks, India has credibly rallied for the Global South. Alongside, India propped up support for the admission of AU as a permanent member of G20. These twin actions besides building India’s goodwill, burnished her credentials as a reliable voice of the Global South.

Since February 2022, the Ukraine crisis upstaged every major global conversation. Besieged by the Ukraine crisis resolution, issues of growth and development paramount for the emerging economies were thrown away in reckless abandon. Wrecked by tumultuous headwinds of uncertainty global economic growth ran below average and was uneven. The Ukraine issue has exacerbated the global challenges. With G7 countries markedly devoted to the Ukraine issue, even the G20 Bali summit ended up ceding much space to the same. Developing countries facing debt crisis believed that the rich countries must increase their assistance to support their economies. This inadvertently created rifts.

Determined to bring back the focus of G20 to global economic and development issues and not allow geopolitics to dominate the agenda, India didn’t invite Ukraine. Shifting the focus away from Ukraine and chartering a course that can find solutions for food shortages, rising inflation, and increasing debts, India has rightly capitalised on ‘Ukraine fatigue’ that has set in. With deft diplomacy, dynamism and the fortitude to bring together a fractured world, India indulged in painstaking negotiations with all the countries to reach a consensus.

Consensus eluded with many ministerial - foreign, finance and development ministers meetings ending in a stalemate. Till weeks ahead of the summit, reaching a consensus seemed unthinkable. The rapid geopolitical events like the expansion of BRICS and Chinese attempts to woo the Global South, aggressive muscle flexing, reluctance to open up lines of communication with the US, and the unabashed ambitious alternate world order pursuits forced the US to align with India.

The West willingly partnered with India and wanted her Presidency to succeed. Even Japan held similar views as nothing frustrates China more than India’s success on the global platform. The only point of difference between the developing world and the G7 is Russia. While Russia let self-condemnation at the Bali summit pass, Moscow was not ready for a repetition of compromise language.

At this juncture, India assisted by the countries of the Global South- Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa assisted by Mexico and Turkey mediated the language of the declaration. Through smart wordplay, India has conveyed the broader message of the countries in the most agreeable and least objectionable way- “Today’s era must not be of war”. India neutered the strongest condemnations by essentially retaining the essence. The declaration subtly conveyed the message that suited the interpretation of every country-“we call on all states to uphold the principles of international law including territorial integrity and sovereignty, international humanitarian law, and multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability”.

Simultaneously the declaration underscored- “the peaceful resolution of conflicts, and efforts to address crises as well as diplomacy and dialogue are critical” and pronounced, “we will unite…. And welcome all relevant and constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace in Ukraine that will uphold all the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter for the promotion of peaceful, friendly and good neighbourly relations”. Reflecting the concerns of the Global South the declaration states, “emphasizing the importance of sustaining food and energy security, we called for the cessation of military destruction or other attacks on relevant infrastructure”.

With a renewed focus on addressing contemporary global challenges, India has resurrected the image of G20 and its credibility. By obtaining unanimous approval of the members for the 83-para declaration without a single dissent, India has miraculously pulled off a diplomatic coup of sorts that resonated with its rising geopolitical clout.

The five key outcomes of the Declaration are the Green Development Pact, an Action Plan on Sustainable Development Goals, High-Level Principles on Anti-Corruption, Support for Digital Public Infrastructure, and Reforms of Multilateral Development Banks. India has launched the Resource Efficiency and Circular Economy Industrial Coalition (RECEIC), a collaborative platform that promotes alliances, encourages technological cooperation, fosters innovation and knowledge transfer. As a Presidency initiative, India has also established the Green Hydrogen Innovation Centre steered by the International Solar Alliance (ISA).

World Bank’s recent report hailed India’s phenomenal financial inclusion through digital transformation which rests on the foundation of Harnessing Data for Development (D4D). India’s robust digital public infrastructure (DPI) is now an instant attraction among developing countries. G20 countries have welcomed India’s plans to build and maintain a Global Digital Public Infrastructure Repository (GDPIR), a virtual repository of DPI. India has also proposed One Future Alliance (OFA), a voluntary initiative to build capacity, and provide technical assistance and funding support for implementing DPI in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs).

In line with its strong commitment to curbing emissions, and recognising the importance of sustainable biofuels, India launched the Global Biofuels Alliance (GBA) at the summit along with founding members- Brazil and US. 19 countries and 12 organisations agreed to join GBA. India has set a target of 20% ethanol blending by 2025, India attained the 10% blending target ahead of time in June 2022.

Riding on the back of the unique distinction of being the first nation to land on the lunar south pole, India has left no stone unturned to project her rapid transformation by rightly investing in the state-of-the-art infrastructure to host the summit. Gloriously showcasing civilisational artifacts and technical prowess while extending lavish hospitality in tune with its cultural values of “athidi devobhava”, India proclaimed her identity as a civilisational state.

Undoubtedly, the success of delivering the New Delhi Leaders Declaration shall be reckoned as a diplomatic triumph in the annals of Indian diplomacy. “Miles to go before” Bharat becomes “Vishwa Guru”. But by building consensus and trust among the comity of nations, India is certainly “Vishwa Mitra”.

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Modi and Biden Align Strategic Partnership with Emerging Challenges

India extended a lavish welcome to Joe Biden on his official visit to India as the US President. Building on the momentum from the US State visit in June, in a marked departure, PM Modi held bilateral talks with President Biden at his residence at 7 Lok Kalyan Marg hours preceding the G20 Summit.

 Between June when PM Modi’s US State visit set the agenda and now, there has been swift movement with respect to defence agreement. During PM Modi’s US State visit, The US Congress approved the pact between GE and Aerospace and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) that entailed 80% of technology transfer for the joint production of F414 fighter jet engines for the Indian Air Force.

This technology transfer valued at an estimated $1 billion would enhance the indigenous component in LCA Tejas Mk2 and set the stage for further defense collaborations. Kickstarting the official process for the acquisition of 31 ‘Killer Drones’ or MQ-9B reapers drones, India has issued a Letter of Request (LoR) signaling the intent to seal the deal by the end of the financial year. These High Endurance Long Range Drones will be assembled in India. General Atomics is believed to tie up with some Indian companies to increase the indigenous components from 8-9% to 15-20%.  Additionally, as part of an agreement, reached between India and the US in June 2023, both countries decided to terminate six WTO disputes and curb retaliatory tariffs on certain US products. As per September 5, government notifications India has removed additional duties on US imports- lentils, chickpeas, apples, walnuts, and almonds. With this India and US have settled the seventh and the last outstanding WTO dispute.

To expand collaboration in clean energy collaboration, India and the US launched the Renewable Energy Technologies Action Platform (RETAP). Under the Master Ship Repair Agreement, the first US ship, USNS Salvor docked at the L&T at Kattupalli port for repair paving the way for India to become the Indo-Pacific logistic hub. Augured by this partnership, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd and the US Navy concluded a second agreement in August. Indeed, US industries have made commitments to make more investments in India’s maintenance, repair, and overhaul facilities of aircraft as well.

In a boost to semiconductor partnership, US’s AMD (Advanced Microchip Devices) announced an investment of $400 million over five years to set up the biggest design facility in India and Microchip Technology rolled out plans to invest $300 million in chip assembly and test facility in Gujarat. An avid interest in advancing the agreements initiated three months ago besides asserting commitment reflects the earnestness of both sides in building an enduring partnership.

Despite the discomfiture over India’s import restrictions and requirement of licenses on the import of laptops and other electronic items like tablets and personal computers, the bilateral relations are more or less stable. The geopolitical turn of events especially, the tenuous relationship of both countries with China is now emerging as a formidable driver for the India-US strategic partnership. China’s muscle flexing and its interception of US vessels and aircraft in the air defense zone (ADZ) over the South China Sea (SCS) and Taiwan Straits is inevitably bolstering the indispensability of India’s partnership to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Unwavered by China’s intimidatory tactics, India has stiffened its stance and reiterated the precondition of peace and tranquility at borders for the normalisation of bilaterals. Around the same time, US diplomats have been making a beeline to China to revive ties and stabilise the lines of communication which have taken a hit over the Taiwan issue and the Chip war. Toggling between decoupling and derisking while the US has started advocating “protect what we must and promote what we can”. India has been crystal clear about its foreign policy toward China which became more resolute following China’s obstinate defiance of the disengagement of troops. Ironically, more than three years into Presidency, Biden is unclear about America’s China policy.

India on the other hand, is taking on China at the platforms where Beijing is the dominant actor. Standing her ground, India, as the Chair of SCO triumphantly discharged its responsibilities and resisted Chinese attempts to advance its agenda at the SCO summit. Similarly, at the recently concluded BRICS summit, India thwarted Beijing’s attempts to turn the bloc into a Chinese club by insisting on instituting a mechanism and guidelines for the expansion of BRICS. Emerging as a potential counter to China both in terms of repulsing its territorial aggressions and diplomatically voicing the concerns of the developing economies and advocating for developmental agenda, trouncing China’s ambitions of unipolar Asia, India is swiftly positioning herself as an alternate pole in the continent.

While shared concerns about China have been the major driving force of the India-US ties, growing realization in Washington of India’s rising stature in the region, her adherence to the rules-based international order, democratic functioning and a potential voice of the global south are impelling the US to deepen multi-dimensional partnership.

Indeed, the 29-para joint communique of the Modi-Biden meeting bereft of any mention of regional or global issues has pointedly distilled the crux of the partnership which is broad-based. A reference to a “free, open, inclusive Indo-Pacific” highlighted China’s muscular aggression. The focus has been on reviewing the agreements reached in June, taking stock of their current status and enunciating the future goals of each of these pacts and dialogues.

Biden congratulated Modi, scientists and engineers associated with Chandrayaan-3 on its historic lunar landing and the successful launch of the Aditya L1. Setting the stage for enhanced cooperation, countries are planning to establish a Working Group for Commercial Space collaboration under the existing India-US Civil Space Joint Working Group. Countries affirmed interest in advancing cooperation in sustainable energy, agriculture, health and pandemic preparedness, semiconductor technology, telecommunications, AI, quantum science, and development of 5G/6G technologies.

Modi and Biden welcomed the development of the “Innovative Handshake agenda” under India-US commercial dialogue to bring together startups, private equity, venture capital firms, and corporate investment departments, to forge connections between innovation ecosystems of both countries. Extending support for building resilient global semiconductor supply chains, Modi and Biden have intended to undertake the midterm review of iCET (Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies) in September 2023 to drive momentum toward the next annual iCET review led by NSA in early 2024.

Biden reaffirmed support for a reformed UNSC with India as a permanent member and welcomed India’s candidature as a non-member for 2028-29. Leaders have agreed to intensify negotiations on collaborations in nuclear energy including the development of next-generation modular reactor technologies.

As part of decarbonising the transport sector, the US plans to acquire 1000 made-in-India electric buses. To further renewable energy cooperation, India’s National Investment and Infrastructure Fund and the US Development Finance Corporation exchanged letters of intent to set up a renewable infrastructure investment fund.

To foster scientific research the Council of Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT Council) signed an MoU with the Association of American Universities (AAU) to set up the India-US Global Challenges Institute with an initial combined commitment of $10 million¹.

The covid pandemic, surging inflations, and rising interest rates are taking a toll on the developing economies. While China is exploring new avenues to engage with the developing world, unilateral Western sanctions are driving them away from the US. The US is increasingly losing out in its attempts to reach out to developing countries, majorly the global south. Through deft diplomacy and amiable outreach, India is presenting herself as a bridge to the global south.

To manage competition with China, especially in terms of providing loans through its multilateral banks to developing countries, Biden is strengthening the Western Banks-IMF and World Bank to lend more support. He is planning to use the G20 summit to woo developing countries.

Biden lauded India’s G20 Presidency for delivering and focusing on developmental outcomes for global good. He expressed confidence and affirmed support for building inclusive economic policies and reshaping, and scaling up multilateral development banks to address the contemporary global challenges.

Given, India’s emerging role as a rising economy and its formidable reputation as a ‘doer’ the US is increasingly seeking to deepen and sustain an enduring partnership with India in countering China, developing resilient supply chains and building global consensus. As a rising great power, India is now the most sought-after country, nations are willing to partner. The US is certainly cognizant of it.

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China’s Latest Cartographic Aggression Reinforces its Revisionist Credentials

Seemingly, Chinese maps have an inherent property to expand in size and uncannily encroach on integral parts of sovereign nations. Else what explains the periodical release of bloated Sino-maps that keep on bursting at the seams and smudging official borders? Giving wings to its insatiable appetite for territorial expansion China has released a new map on August 28.  The new map was released by China’s Ministry of Natural Resources commemorating Surveying and Mapping Publicity Day and the National Mapping Awareness Publicity Week. The release which came at the back of PM Modi’s informal conversation with President Xi along the sidelines of the Johannesburg BRICS Summit and ahead of the G20 summit has created quite a stir.

The Standard New Map has shed all the pretense of “China’s peaceful rise”. Encompassing and engulfing all the possible territories of various countries it can lay eyes on, China has released a new map. India immediately lodged a strong protest and unequivocally communicated that the new map which includes Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin in an attempt to lay its claims “might complicate the resolution of the boundary question”. Rejecting Chinese claims, EAM Jaishankar said, “China has put out maps with territories (that are) not theirs. (It is an) old habit. Just making absurd claims does not make other people’s territories yours”.

China’s renewed cartographic aggression now makes way for the brand new “ten-dash line”, an upgrade of the “nine-dash line” which was rejected by the Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration 2016. Beijing has recklessly rejected the ruling and insisted on its indisputable claim over the territories of the Philippines. The “10-dash line”, which is tongue-shaped now includes the regions surrounding Taiwan. Some strategists now believe that the “ten-dash line” is an attempt to close in on Japan’s Ryukyu Islands. With this China has laid claim to over 90% of the South China Sea (SCS).

China’s attempt to legitimize its sovereignty and jurisdiction over the various geographical features in SCS has no basis under international law and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China’s cartographic aggression is a step-wise incremental process. After the success of this pilot project in terms of forcing the multinational marketing agencies and businesses to pay fines for not showing Taiwan and Nine-dash line on its maps, China is now steadily pushing this agenda through its propaganda channels which continues to amplify China’s new standard maps. In the past, clothing brand Gap, airline United Continental Holding, and Japan’s Seven &I Holding were forced to apologise and take down the maps not showing Taiwan in China’s maps.

Another unmistakable accomplice of this aggression adopted by China is to assert its delusionary claims through the spasmodic release of Sinicised names for places in Arunachal Pradesh. As a retaliation to the State visit of The Dalai Lama to Arunachal Pradesh in 2017, China has assigned “invented names” to six places in the state. In 2021, China released another set of 15 Sinicised names weeks after celebrating the 100 years of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and again in April 2023, a tranche of 11 Mandarin names for places in Arunachal Pradesh protesting G20 Ministerial meeting in Itanagar. China defended the renaming exercise as being “carried out in accordance with our regulations about the names of localities and it is a legitimate action by the Chinese government”.

India has repeatedly called out China’s repeated clinical, unilateral attempts to alter the status with “invented antiquity”. Cartographic aggression and the Sinicization of names are potent weapons of China’s psychological warfare. The timing of this latest episode of Cartographic aggression, coming in the wake of India’s “stiffening position” is categorical strategic signalling by China.

PM Modi in his brief interaction with Jinping along the sidelines of the BRICS Summit has reportedly underlined that “maintenance of peace and tranquillity in the border areas, and observing and respecting the LAC are essential for the normalisation of the India-China relationship”.

India’s refusal to back from its stated position of restoration of status quo ante as of April 2020 at the LAC and persistent hyphenation of the resolution of the border issue with normalisation ties has annihilated all chances of a bilateral meeting on Chinese terms. Moreover, India’s swift rise together with her pursuits of advancing developmental agenda with no strings attached policy at various multinational forums has enhanced her stature. Repudiating China’s intimidatory tactics, India is now emerging as an alternate pole in Asia.

Ostensibly, taking a cue from India’s strong diplomatic protests - Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Indonesia, Nepal and Brunei rejected the map. Brunei the latest ASEAN member country to condemn the map reminded China of its obligations to UNCLOS and urged for the effective implementation of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in SCS. Kathmandu lodged a strong protest for failing to recognise the three territories- Limpiadhura, Lipulekh and Kalapani as part of Nepal in the new map.

Malaysia stated that it doesn’t recognise China’s 2023 standard map as it “outlines portions of Malaysian waters near Sabah and Sarawak as belonging to China”. The Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs statement- “rejected the 2023 version of China’s Standard Map.. because of its inclusion of nine-dashed line (now a ten-dashed line) that supposedly shows China’s boundaries in the SCS… the map is illegal and has no basis under international law”.

Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement read- “Vietnam strongly reiterates its consistent stance on the sovereignty over Hoang Sa (Paracel) and Truong Sa (Spratly), and resolutely rejects any maritime claims of China that are based on the “nine-dash line” in East Sea”. Rejecting the map, Taiwan asserted, “Taiwan, the Republic of China, is a sovereign and independent country that is not subordinate to the People’s Republic of China”.

With its overlapping claims to territories of countries in its immediate and extended neighbourhood, China has invariably positioned itself as an unparalleled expansionist hegemon that is a veritable threat to the larger Indo-Pacific region and Indian sub-continent.

Indonesian Foreign Minister said, “The drawing of any (territorial) lines, any claims, must be in accordance with UNCLOS 1982”. The overwhelming disapproval has made the world and the region especially wary of China. Interestingly, the new map for the first time included Russian territory Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island on the Amur River. This has been a disputed territory since 1860s. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia handed the Western part of the Island to China and signed a treaty in 2008 conclusively ending the dispute.  Given Russia’s current economic dependence and the 2022 “no limits friendship”, with China, its response to the map has been muted.

Reacting to China’s new map Denis Alipov, the Russian Ambassador to India snubbed away saying, “(it)doesn’t change anything on ground..”. But added, “For your information, there are some discrepancies on the Russia-China border as well. We do not exaggerate this issue with the Chinese side. And as we have noticed, India does not exaggerate this issue as well”.

China’s dismissive attitude laced with undertones of revisionism solemnised in the foreign ministry spokesperson’s statement on the map as a “routine practice in China’s exercise of sovereignty in accordance with the law. We hope relevant sides can stay objective and calm, refrain from over-interpreting the issue” has inexorably compounded Beijing’s belligerent approach.

China’s condescension amply resonated with Chinese defence minister General Li Shangfu’s reply at the Shangri La conference where he told the world “to mind your own business” in reply to a question as to why China carries out aggressive maneuvers and chases foreign vessels and navies in Taiwan Straits. Li said, “The best way is for the countries, especially the naval vessels and fighter jets of countries, not to do closing actions around other countries' territories. What’s the point of going there? In China, we always say, “Mind your own business”¹.

The new map epitomises China’s assertion of power, authority and unbridled aggression. The cartographic assertion and the latest satellite images showing new shelters, bunkers, tunnels and allied subterranean infrastructure close to Depsang Plains in Aksai Chin region have reinforced China’s plans of “digging in for a long haul” and reluctance to deescalate tensions along the LAC. China’s “obstructive tactics” at G20 Ministerial Meeting including its objections to unconventional aspects like Mission LiFE (Life Style for Environment), MSMEs, women-led development and India’s slogan for G20 “Vasudaiva Kutumbakam” illustrate China’s adversarial approach towards India.

The Galwan incident has irreversibly damaged the ties, China's intransigent approach and attempts to downsize India at international forums is bound to escalate the hostilities. As per the latest reports, absent any official confirmation from China, it is conclusively learnt that Xi Jinping will skip the G20 Summit hosted by India to embarrass India. Beijing believes this official snub will diminish India’s stature. On the contrary, Xi’s absence will help India position herself as the voice of the Global South and focus on developmental issues including the niggling food, fuel and fertiliser security. Xi’s abstention from G20 Summit post-revisionist standard map release would categorically reaffirm China’s reluctance for a bilateral meeting with PM Modi which might help in smoothening the rough edges and pave the way for a “consensus”.

China’s unabashed disinclination to resolve the borders coupled with relentless military buildup and coercion leaves no doubt about its intentions of ramping up pressure on India with hostile borders. But China’s unbridled expansion and cartographic transgressions have outraged several countries and it is too heavy a price to regroup the nation with a cratering economy under the banner of nationalism. In the process, China is no longer making secret of its revisionist intentions.

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Aditya L1: India’s First Ever Solar Mission

India scripted history with an iconic soft landing on the lunar south pole. A place that was unexplored till now and in Sanatana Dharma parlance, elevating the kundalini shakti dispelling the darkness of the Aghora. Treasuring this landmark achievement, the landing site was aptly named as “Shiva Shakti Point” resonating with the sentiments of the nation. Cherishing India’s relentless pursuit to explore space, the Chandrayaan-2 crash point on the lunar surface is now denominated as “Tiranga Point”. Chandrayaan-3 success invigorated the prospect of the moon being India’s gateway for future interplanetary missions. “This is not the end but the beginning of the end”. The real journey will start now.

Pioneering yet another space mission, ISRO has set the stage for its first-ever study of the Sun, the Aditya L1 mission. The sun-observatory will be hoisted by the PSLV-C59, the 59^th flight of the workhorse PSLV, and the 25^th mission in XL configuration into a low earth orbit. Subsequently, the Aditya L1 spacecraft will undergo orbital maneuvers using Liquid Apogee Motor (LAM) to reach the Sun-Earth Lagrange point L1, halo orbit which is around 1.5 million kilometers from Earth (roughly 1% of the Earth-Sun distance). The rocket will set off from the second launch pad of Sriharikota Range (SHAR) on September 2, 2023.

Solar activities have immense effects on the entire solar system. The Sun is the sole source of energy for the entire solar system including earthlings. It is 150 million kilometers from the Earth. The Sun is an active ball of hydrogen and helium gases.  The centre of the Sun is called the core with temperatures reaching as high as 15 million degrees Celsius. The nuclear fusion reactions occurring in the core powers the Sun. The visible surface or photosphere is relatively cool and has temperatures of 5500⁰C.

The Sun is the nearest star to the Earth and the regular explosive eruptions of the Sun release a lot of energy, which if directed to the Earth can cause disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere. The thermo-magnetic phenomena on the Sun are accompanied by the release of constant flow of particles and magnetic fields which nearly fill the space. The constant flow of the particles called solar wind is mostly composed of high-energy protons. The solar wind and the Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) change the nature of space and alter the magnetic field of the Earth.

While mild Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) of the Sun’s surface cause Auroras, strong eruptions can potentially disrupt satellite communications and terrestrial grid systems. Hence, it is important to continuously monitor solar activities to better predict the space weather. The core objectives of the Aditya Mission include the study of coronal heating, solar wind acceleration, Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), dynamics of the solar atmosphere, and temperature anisotropy.

Lagrange points are often referred to as the parking places in space which are gravitationally stable. The spacecraft can operate for a long time from these places with very less fuel. These are points of equilibrium where the combined gravitational forces of two large bodies (in this case the Earth and the Sun) are equal to the centrifugal force experienced by a smaller body. These points are named after the Italian Mathematician Joseph Lagrange after his discovery in 1772. In all, there are five Lagrange points. The L1 point which lies between the Earth and the Sun offers an uninterrupted view of the Sun without any “occultations/eclipses”.

For a comprehensive understanding of the space weather and to study the Sun, the European Space Agency (ESA) in partnership with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has launched the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission in 1996 to be positioned at L1. The mission originally planned for two years continues to operate for over 25 years and is extended till 2025. Even NASA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory is also positioned at L1 because of its vantage position.

Indeed, scientists maintain that L1, L2, (on the opposite side of the Sun), and L3 (behind the Sun) are relatively unstable due to their precarious equilibrium. Spacecrafts destined for these positions must be carefully adjusted to avoid irreversibly falling into the Sun. L2 is considered most ideal for astronomy and previously hosted NASA’s Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and the current home of Planck. James Webb Space Telescope is expected to move to this position soon.

L1 and L2 are unstable on a time scale of approximately 23 days. Hence spacecraft orbiting these positions must undergo periodic course correction and altitude correction. L3 is not deemed to be important because of its position relative to the Sun.

The L4 and L5 positions have stable orbits. Due to their stability dust and asteroids accumulate in these regions. The asteroids located around these points are called Trojans in honour of the asteroids Agamemnon, Achilles, and Hector (characters of the Trojan War). These points are relatively closer to the Sun and are highly suitable for asteroid hunting. On the other hand, the SOHO observatory at L1 point has the credit of hunting over 3000 comets till now.

The Aditya L1 spacecraft placed in the Earth’s orbit will be made elliptical and will be pushed towards the L1 position. As it travels towards L1, the spacecraft will move out of the Earth’s Sphere of Influence (SoI). Once the spacecraft exists the SoI, the cruise phase starts and leads to its injection into the large halo orbit around the L1. The entire process from launch to reaching L1 orbit will take four months.

The earth’s atmosphere acts as a protective shield and blocks the entry of numerous harmful radiations, particles, and magnetic fields. Hence our regular instruments on the Earth will not be able to study all these ionised high-energy particles and radiations. To study these particles and phenomena it is important to move away from the sphere of influence of Earth’s magnetic field.

At L1, away from the Earth’s atmosphere, the Aditya probe will deploy all seven instruments on board especially to study solar flares, propagation of particles and fields from the flare, and the Sun’s atmosphere, i.e. Chromosphere and Corona. Aditya L1 has seven instruments on board. Four of them for remote sensing of the Sun and three in-situ instruments for observing the local environment.

The four remote sensing payloads include- Visible Emission Line Coronograph (VELC) for Corona imaging and spectroscopy; Solar Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SUIT) for observing the photosphere and Chromosphere; Solar Low Energy X-ray Spectrometer (SoLEXS); High-Energy L1 orbiting X-Ray Spectrometer (HEL1OS).

The in-situ payloads are the Aditya Solar Wind Particle Experiment (ASPEX), Plasma Analyzer Package for Aditya (PAPA); and Advanced Tri-axial Resolution Digital Magnetometers. All these payloads are indigenously developed in different labs of the country in close collaboration with various centres of ISRO. Aditya L1 is only the. Similar to the Chandrayaan series, ISRO can plan missions to stable points like L4 and L5. Built in a budget of Rs 378 crores, Aditya L1 is the most cost-effective solar project in the world.

Coming at the back of the Chandrayaan 3 mission which is making invaluable discoveries, the country is highly hopeful of a breakthrough exploration of the mysteries of the Sun through the Aditya L1 mission.

 

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India-Greece: Ancient Civilisations Upgrade Ties to Strategic Partnership

Describing India and Greece relationship a “natural reunion”, PM Modi has heralded a new beginning by reviving the ties between the two ancient civilisations that trace close linkages to antiquity. On his epochal one-day visit to Greece Johannesburg BRICS summit on August 25, 2023, PM Modi along with his counterpart Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis upgraded the bilateral ties to strategic partnership. PM Modi’s visit to Greece, the first by an Indian Prime Minister coming after a gap of 40 years has reenergised the traditional relationship strengthened by trade and cultural ties.

Though there have been regular high-level bilateral visits between both countries. A prime ministerial visit was conspicuous by its absence. The last Greek Prime Minister to visit India was Andreas Papandreou as the Republic Day guest in 1986. He visited India thrice- the first time for the funeral of Indira Gandhi in 1984 followed by a quick visit in 1985 to attend a nuclear disarmament summit. The last official Indian Prime Minister to Greece was in 1983 by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. In recent times Presidents- Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam (2007) and Ramnath Kovind (2018) visited Greece.

India’s tryst with Greece picked up pace following Turkey’s anti-India propaganda in the wake of the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Aligning with Pakistan, Turkey supported Islamabad’s attempts to rake up the Kashmir issue at various multilateral forums. Concurrently, the massive reconfigurations of geopolitical relations in the Eastern Mediterranean region resulted in the shaping of the Pakistan-Turkey-Azerbaijan axis often referred to as “Three Brothers”. In 2020, Azerbaijan occupied Nagorno-Karabakh defeating Armenia with Turkish military assistance. Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 drones singularly turned the battle in its favour by decimating Armenia’s weapon systems.

Around the same time, an Italian company announced the discovery of 3.5 trillion cubic metres of oil reserves in the Aegean Sea of the East Mediterranean region. This has intensified the already existing hostilities between Greece and Turkey over the islands in the region. Militarisation of the islands in violation of the treaty agreements, drilling activities in the contentious regions and airspace violations have roiled the already testy Greco-Turkish relations. The disagreements over maritime boundaries, overlapping claims to their continental shelves and the Cyprus dispute furthered deepened the chasms between Greece and Turkey.

Azerbaijan aligns with Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir and Armenia which spars with Azerbaijan hasn’t established diplomatic ties with Turkey. Armenia unequivocally extended support to India on Kashmir and made $250 million in defence purchases from India which includes the Pinaka Multi-Barrel Rocket Launchers (MBRL). To snuff out Pakistan’s attempts to internationalise the Kashmir issue and whittle the larger plans of Turkey to host and support the hostile anti-India elements, India has upped its game.

Shedding its passivity and diffidence, India took a plunge into the region’s geopolitical minefield. In a first in 18 years, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar visited Greece in 2021 to welcome Athens into the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and oversee the signing of the framework. The following year, Greece Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias on his visit to India announced the plans of a trilateral between India, Greece and UAE¹ and reiterated Greece’s capacity as an EU-member country to act as a bridge between India and the EU.

To rein in Turkey’s expansionist ambitions that seek to completely annex Turkish Cypriot and some of the Greek islands, Greece has forged strategic cooperation with UAE in 2020 and with France in 2021. Both these countries are close strategic partners of India. Greece supports India on Kashmir, deems it as an internal issue of India and resonates with India’s concerns. India supports Greece's stance on Cyprus. In 2022, commemorating 60 years of the establishment of diplomatic ties with Cyprus, Jaishankar visited Nicosia and both countries signed defence cooperation. This clearly reflected India’s alignment with Greece on geopolitical issues.

Post nuclear tests in 1998 when Western countries contemplated sanctions against India, the Greek Defence Minister visited India in December 1998 and signed MoU for defence cooperation. The defence cooperation is nurtured by port calls, participation in multilateral drills, and visits by high-level defence delegations. In 2016, Greece extended support to India’s entry to the Missile Control Technology Regime (MTCR), Wassenaar Agreement and Australia Group. Greece also supports India’s quest for permanent membership in the UNSC and NSG membership.

In May 2023, the Indian Air Force participated in a multinational air exercise INIOCHOS-23 hosted by the Hellenic Air Force at Andravida Air Base. Indian pilots are training with Greek’s F-16 aircraft the mainstay of Pakistan. Greek F-16s are expected to participate in India’s Tarang Shakti, India’s largest air exercise to be held in September.

India and Greece have two institutional mechanisms in place-Joint Economic Committee (JEC) and Foreign Office Consultations which began in 1992. The 13^th round of Foreign Office Consultations held in Athens in June 2023 has laid the ground for identifying and expanding the arenas of cooperation ahead of PM Modi’s visit to Greece.

PM Modi during his visit held restricted delegation-level talks with his counterpart PM Mitsotakis. Both leaders exchanged views on regional, national and global issues of common interests. The two major maritime nations, “shared their vision of a free, open and rules-based Mediterranean Sea and Indo-Pacific, in accordance with the law of the sea, in particular the provisions of the UNCLOS, and with full respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and freedom of navigation to the benefit of international peace, stability and security”². This, in fact, is an indirect reference to indiscriminate and blatant violations of Turkey and China in the East Mediterranean Sea and South China Sea respectively.

Greece expressed strong support for India-EU trade and investment negotiations and the early implementation of the India-EU connectivity partnership and agreed to deepen bilateral engagements in defence, shipping, science and technology, cyberspace, education, culture, tourism and agriculture. Countries have signed a MoU on Cooperation in agriculture including the establishment of a Hellenic-Indian sub-committee on agriculture for facilitating sectoral cooperation for mutual benefit.

Countries affirmed to ensure regular dialogue in political, economic, defence, security and public diplomacy. As a first step, they have decided to establish an institutional platform for dialogue at the NSA level. To foster people-to-people ties, countries are expediting the proposal to have direct flights between India and Greece and also promote art and culture through exchanges between academic institutions. India has invited Greece to join the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI).

Emerging from the throes of the economic recession, Greece is now the fastest-growing economy in the EU and seeking to explore the booming markets of India. To facilitate the free movement of the workforce, countries are contemplating the early finalisation of a Mobility and Migration Partnership Agreement (MMPA). Currently, bilateral trade is hovering around $2 billion. Considering the increase in bilateral trade and economic engagement, leaders have agreed to double bilateral trade by 2030.

The convergence over maritime and military cooperation can be a stable ground over which countries can augment ties further. Greece has second second-largest shipping capacity after China and is the greatest naval power in the East Mediterranean Region. Deepening relations with Greece will have positive results for India in the Mediterranean region and it can be India’s strategic gateway to Europe. Also, Greece can play a significant role in energy security as it has abundant natural gas and oil resources.

China’s state-owned shipping company COSCO obtained rights to operate port Piraeus when Greece was grappling with an economic crisis in 2008. Steadily it acquired 51% stakes by 2016 and currently its ownership stake has increased to 67%³. This port served as China’s economic, transport and strategic entry to Europe.

As per some Greek media reports, India is believed to have expressed interest in acquiring two ports- Kavala in northern Greece and Volos, 330 km away from Athens. Another port under consideration is Alexandroupoli⁴. By establishing a strategic connectivity corridor between the Indian Ocean and the East Mediterranean, India can “radically reconfigure trade patterns”, and steadily extend its footprint in Europe and counter the expanding influence of China.

Building on the age-old historical warmth and genuine respect that are the foundation for trusted relationships, PM Modi in a joint press statement said, “I firmly believe that like the Gandhara School of Art, a beautiful amalgamation of Indian and Greco-Roman art, the friendship between India and Greece will also leave its indelible mark on the stone of time”⁵.

In recognition of his efforts to strengthen relations between India and Greece, the President of Greece Katerina N Sakellaropoulou bestowed the highest civilian honour, the Grand Cross of the Order of the Honour on PM Modi signifying the respect of the people of Greece towards India. The oldest and largest democracies share values of democracy, pluralism and the rule of law and have many areas of convergence. Aligning with the changing configurations of the global order, the countries must now work together to sustain this momentum and strategically cement the bilateral ties.

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