NDA@2: Comprehensive Analysis of Modi's Foreign Policy

The NDA government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed charge on 26^th May 2014. Unlike previous regimes, Modi was voted to power with a thumping majority and proportionately the level of expectations were unrealistically high. Hence all the arenas of regimes are meticulously scrutinized and critiqued. On successful completion of two years of governance, a comprehensive analysis of the foreign policy, actively pursued by Modi would be a great measure to assess ambitious vision enunciated. Interestingly, unlike his predecessors Modi displayed a rare vivacity and acumen to project India as a leading power on the global platform. Besides, deftly reshaping the contours of Indian foreign policy in line with the classical diplomacy that deal with war, peace, agreements, dispute resolution, sharing of resources, trade and security, he deployed a new genre of diplomacy- diplomacy for development. Modi envisioned that sustainable socio-economic development can be attained by nurturing ties with reliable external partners.

Barring the few initial years as a fledgling independent nation, India rarely exuded a zeal to inspire, re-shape or create a niche for itself among the coterie of World nations. Despite its vast size, demography, strategic geographical location for decades India preferred to maintain a low profile. Post-independence India actively advocated Non-Aligned Policy and consistently upheld its stand.  Preoccupied by territorial disputes and internecine wars with the belligerent neighbors India hardly evinced interest in global issues. The shambolic state of economy, fall of Soviet Union forced India to recalibrate foreign policy. With Indian economy showing signs of revival post 1990 economic reforms, its relative international heft began to increase. During the laggard phase of Hindu growth rate Indian economic orientation was inward looking. Economy was largely self-reliant and hence India’s dependence on external world was limited. Currently Indian economy is seventh largest and third biggest in terms of PPP. Steadily India’s interdependence on the global markets has increased and now it can hardly afford to remain evasive about global issues. While an increasingly assertive China is making the Asian countries and the US nervous, the democratic rise of India is highly welcomed. Regional geo-politics demand India to play a stronger role. While nations are still battling to recover from the effects of economic crisis of 2008. India has comfortably managed the situation and became fastest growing economy.  As nations are rallying together and entering into pacts for global economic revival, India can no longer stay away from the regional economic integration. Above all, in order to accelerate economic development and improve national security regime, it is incumbent on India to foster good relations with regional and international partners. Aptly so, Modi envisions to transform India into a leading power.

Trouncing the apprehensions of critics who were highly skeptical of Modi’s diplomatic acumen, he significantly expanded the “political, economic and security outreach of Indian diplomacy”. In the past two years, Modi made forty one foreign trips which included two visits to Russia, France, Nepal and Singapore and three visits to US. The ambitious foreign policy goals of NDA regime can be summarized into three major policy initiatives- Act East, Neighborhood First and Look West. Other visionary foreign policy goals include- Indian Ocean Outreach, Project Mausam and Cooperation with Pacific Islands. Being a strong advocate of federalism, Modi government introduced an innovative concept of Para Diplomacy where states and cities can forge relations with countries and federal states. The catch phrase of Modi foreign policy is fast-track diplomacy. Upon the completion of fist 100 days of governance, Ministry of External Affairs released a booklet titled “Fast Track Diplomacy” highlighting its achievements and emphasized on three forces-proactive, strong and sensitive.

Modi made a head start with an out of the box thinking and placed India in a vantage position by inviting the leaders of SAARC nations for his swearing-in ceremony. He dazzled in the new role by shaking hands with Nawaz Sharif and sustained the momentum by travelling to the oft visited neighboring countries. Deftly handling India’s security environment inconveniently titled by pugnacious neighbors, Modi met President Xi at the BRICS summit before travelling to Kyoto. At Kyoto, Modi was accorded a grand reception. Building on his proximity with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Modi managed to drive home valuable investments. Extending a warm reception to President Xi Jingping on the banks of Sabarmati River, Modi celebrated his first birthday as a Prime Minister and strategically ameliorated Indo-Chinese relations. President Xi’s visit was marred by incursions by Chinese troops along the LAC. Modi raised apprehensions about the situation whereby both sides agreed to resolve the festering border issue soon. As a goodwill gesture Xi has agreed to open a new route for Indian pilgrims visiting Kailash Mansarovar in Tibet via Nathu La pass in Sikkim. September 2014, witness an unprecedented rise in unprovoked firing along the LoC and Modi regime has ordered troops to retaliate with equal force. This move not only boosted the morale of the forces but sent a tough message across.  After a decade long visa ban on US, Modi visited US and sizzled on the international platform. His speech at the UN General Assembly reiterating the need for evolving a Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) and the perils of the good and bad terrorism was highly appreciated. At the august gathering in recognition of ancient Indian sciences holistic approach to health and well-being, Modi proposed at UN that International Yoga Day be celebrated on June 21^st. Modi’s regime successfully obtained approval of UN member nations and subsequently 195 countries across the globe celebrate Yoga Day now. This marked greatest victory for Modi’s soft diplomacy, an oft used tool in Indian Foreign Policy. He was extended a red carpet welcome, held bilateral talks with President Obama and was bestowed a thunderous reception by Indian Diaspora at Madison Gardens. Madison Garden’s euphoria has become a template for future conventions. Henceforth Modi addressed Indian Diaspora during all his overseas visits to various countries. This precedent of connecting with overseas Indians indirectly strengthened the voices of immigrant Indians settled in foreign lands. China’s growth was believed to be heralded by its diaspora and Modi’s mantra of Diaspora Connect is an attempt to invigorate Diaspora’s spirit of connecting to motherland.

After the thumping success at US, Modi represented India at East Asia Summit, attended G-20 summit in Australia, visited Fiji and travelled to Nepal to attend the SAARC Summit. To regain lost ground in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and to make up for the lost opportunities in its immediate and extended neighborhood Modi visited Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka. Aside fostering and rebuilding relations, Modi rigorously tried to garner support from these countries for India’s membership to extended UNSC. Till now India succumbing to defensiveness shied away from geopolitics. Through clear articulation of foreign policy and strategic interests Modi attempted to reclaim lost ground. Towards the end of first year in office, Modi embarked on a three nation tour to France, Germany and Canada to improve bilateral ties, seek defence cooperation and technology transfer to boost Indian economy. In all the three countries Modi held meeting with the business leaders and actively sought investments. In Germany he inaugurated Hanover Messe Industrial Fair and promoted the Make In India initiative in a big way. Modi’s state visit to China in May 2015 was high on symbolism and business outcomes but low on tangible outcome as China deftly avoided discussions on border issue. In all, during the first year Modi sealed civil nuclear agreement with Canada and Australia for export of Uranium to India and initiated government to government “off the rack” agreement for the purchase of Rafale fighters from France. Considered as major diplomatic triumph President Obama graciously honored Modi’s invitation to be the Chief Guest for the Republic Day Parade. Building bridges of friendship with the US has been a corner stone of Modi’s foreign policy.

Another vital component of Modi’s foreign has been economic diplomacy. Modi linked the developmental goals to diplomacy and strived consistently to seek cooperation with external partners. While previous regimes attempted to establish linkages between developmental goals and diplomacy the determination and fervent articulation was amiss. On the other hand Modi eloquently pursued the developmental goals- Make in India, Digital India, Skill India, Clean India and energetically, organized mega events, campaign rallies to  garner support/ investments and technology transfer. Consequently, India for the first time toppled China as the major foreign investment destination. Moreover, with a synergistic approach of improving economic reforms and emphatic promotion of various initiatives India received a foreign investment of $85 billion so far. Modi’s studied vigor, enthusiasm and passion coupled with active engagement with various countries in part changed World’s perceptions of India.

Modi government’s phenomenal diplomatic pragmatism heralded in the conclusion of the 41 year old Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) with Bangladesh. LBA conclusively provided relief to thousands of people living the conclaves of undemarcated boundaries along the Indo-Bangladesh border. Through peaceful resolution of the border dispute, India claimed a moral victory by winning trust of a neighbor who in turn promised to act on the anti-insurgent groups operating from their territory. Rejuvenated by LBA, Modi steered the long pending BBIN (Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal) connectivity network. Despite India’s historical, cultural and civilization links with CARs which are part of its extended neighborhood, New Delhi grossly failed to expedite the ties for mutual benefit. They are vital for India’s stability, energy security, connectivity, trade and economic linkages. In a bid to boost the 12-point ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy initiated in 2012. Modi visited five Central Asian Republic (CAR)s- Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan referred to as ‘Stans’ to enhance strategic, economic and energy ties. Modi also represented India at the BRICS summit and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) where India’s observer status was elevated to full membership at Ufa in Russia. At Ufa Modi reached out to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif signaling resumption of dialogue following the cancellation of foreign secretary talks in August 2014. The Ufa joint statement outlined the mutually agreed conditions for talks which were initially welcomed by both sides. But Pakistan quickly made a studied U-turn within 24hours and dampened the spirit of dialogue.

Underlining importance of Middle East, Modi paid a standalone visit to UAE in August 2015. Unfortunately, in spite of geographical proximity and strong economic relationship with the Gulf India has significantly failed in fortifying a reliable political engagement. Modi injected germane optimism in Indo-UAE relations, built energy ties, garnered support for the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) and sought investments for infrastructure development and energy exploration. Modi steadily built up friendly ties with the West during his bilateral visits to UK and Ireland. On his second visit to US, Modi met several business leaders to explore innovative ideas that can be implemented in India. Modi participated in the G-20 summit at Turkey held days after the 13/11 Paris attacks where he fervently urged World leaders to adopt an international convention on terrorism and appealed the UN to define the term terrorism. Bolstering the Act East Policy, with a keen focus on trade and strategic cooperation Modi attended the ASEAN-India Summit at Kuala Lumpur. ASEAN countries referred to Tiger Economies are economic forerunners in Asia and deepening relations with them can augur India’s quest for economic progress. Globalization while auguring economic development has hastened the global warming and climate change. Demonstrating its seriousness towards disruptions in climate change India voluntarily announced its intentions to cut emission intensity of its GDP by 20-25% over 2005 levels by 2020. At the COP-21 International Climate Convention India along with hosts France launched International Solar Alliance (ISA) to boost solar energy production in developing countries. In a display of exemplary leadership, roping in 120 countries across the globe, India demonstrated seriousness towards containing the emission intensity.

India has been a traditional ally of Soviet Union and both countries enjoyed exceptional camaraderie. But India’s marked economic surge, levitation towards the US and geopolitical prominence culminated in decline of Russia’s share in India’s defence trade. Defying the claims of any mild fractures in Indo-Russian relations, Modi hosted President Valdimir Putin in December 2014, adopted a joint statement “Druzhba-Dosti”: A vision for strengthening Indian-Russian Partnership over the next decade. Besides, Modi met Putin along the margins of SCO at Ufa in Russia and then reciprocated with a bilateral in December 2015. In continuation of India’s legacy of enhanced defence cooperation Modi purchased of S-400 Triumf Air Defence Missile Technology worth $10 billion, capable of destroying incoming aircrafts, drones and missiles within a range of 400km. While returning from Moscow, Modi visited Afghanistan and inaugurated new Parliament complex constructed by India at Kabul and addressed Parliament. Before returning to India, Modi surprised strategists by briefly stopping over in Lahore on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s birthday.

Modi’s foreign policy towards Pakistan was flayed by Indo-Pakistan observers who deeply lamented the quirky flip-flops, sudden U-turns and changing goal posts. After both sides failed to reach consensus over Ufa agenda, India and Pakistan halted the NSA level talks. To put an end to the stalemate, NSA’s of both countries along with foreign secretaries met silently. This was followed by Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Islamabad to attend the Heart of Asia who announced resumption of comprehensive bilateral dialogue. To sustain the momentum and good will generated, Modi paid an impromptu visit to Lahore. But Pakistan reciprocated India’s peace message with an attack on Pathankot air base. Investigation reports claims involvement of JeM. Though Modi demanded a time bound action from Islamabad, having mastered the art of subterfuge and treachery Pakistan botched up the issue with erroneous media reports. Alternatively, Pakistan requested India to allow its Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the attack. India permitted JIT comprising an ISI officer to conduct investigation provided Pakistan reciprocated. JIT after visiting the site reported that India staged the attack and accused India of vicious propaganda. Pakistan now backtracks on the prospect of Indian team visiting Pakistan to unearth terror connections. Besides India also lost its plot when China scuppered India’s attempt to indict the Pathankot mastermind Masood Azhar at the UN. India tried to retaliate by allowing the Chinese dissidents to visit Dharmasala for a conference. India buckled under pressure and cancelled visa to Uighur leader Dolkun Isa. New Delhi also denied entry of Hong Kong democratic leaders to India. In a more recent development, India even refrained to send its MP’s to the swearing-in ceremony of the Taiwan Women President Tsai Ing-Wen who challenged the Chinese hegemony. While Modi’s expansive diplomatic engagement has infused new confidence in India’s future, fumbling, incoherence and stumbling in dealing with bellicose neighbors calls for urgent reassessment of foreign policy stratagem. Nepal’s relentless blame game accusing India of the domestic crisis despite all the help demands a serious rejig of India’s policy towards its immediate neighbor.

Above all, the high octane diplomacy of Modi to various countries and especially to nations of great geo-strategic importance like Saudi Arabia and Iran have indeed made a difference. The high-level strategic engagement with US and gradual up gradation of the bilateral relations began to bear fruit. Comprehending the need for India’s inevitable engagement with the Asian realm, Modi regime organized a massive flagship conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics, Raisina Dialogue. In August 2015 India hosted the second Forum for Indo-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) under the extended Act East Policy and organized the third Indo-African Forum Summit (IAFS) last year October extending invitation to all the 54 African countries. NDA government’s proactive engagement with various traditional partners promises to offer plausible solutions for global challenges like economic stagnation, flaring endemic conflicts, mass destruction and international terrorism too. Culminating New Delhi’s pragmatic engagement with Washington, US House of Representatives approved a bill to elevate defence ties with India bringing it at par with NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies. But in any case, two years in fact is very short time to pass any judgments.  Certainly, India has definitely found its ground on international arena. But Modi has to learn lessons from the debacles and should attempt to build consensus on foreign policy to audaciously launch India on global platform. 

 

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India Scales New Heights with ISRO's Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV)

On May 23^rd ISRO has successfully tested the reusable launch vehicle (RLV), a precursor to the spacecraft. In a major leap towards affordable launching of payloads into space ISRO test demonstrated RLV from the Sriharikota space port. A winged RLV-TD (Reusable Launch Vehicle-Technology Demonstrator) has been configured to test various technologies like the hypersonic flight, autonomous landing, powered cruise flight and hypersonic flight using air-breathing propulsion. RLV-TD is aimed at realising the Two Stage To Orbit (TSTO) fully reusable launch vehicle. These technologies are developed in phases through a series of experimental flights. In the initial hypersonic flight experiment (HEX), RLV-TD will lift off from HS-9 solid rocket booster and will be launched beyond earth’s atmosphere. After separation from the rocket, it will re-enter following the hypersonic regime. This feat was successfully accomplished by ISRO with the recent launch. It will be followed by gruelling landing experiment (LEX) where the performance of the turbofan engine will be monitored as RLV makes a computer aided horizontal landing. In the Return Flight experiment (REX) RLV will be launched into orbit and then enters re-enters. Finally during the Scram Jet Propulsion Experiment (SPEX) entire profile of RLV will be tested with a scramjet engine (Supersonic combustible ramjet). Final stage will be crucial wherein the scram jet compresses atmospheric oxygen and uses it to ignite the liquid hydrogen fuel. The resulting water vapour pushed out through a nozzle generates the needed thrust.  

In the preliminary tests carried out yesterday, a double-delta winged vehicle was launched by the two staged Rohini sounding rocket.  The winged vehicle fitted with solid strap on thrusters similar to those used in PSLV’s will take-off vertically and land horizontally like an aircraft. The prototype, 1.65 mt long, weighing 1.75 tonnes after reaching an altitude of 56 mts separated from the boosters. After reaching an incline of 65 mts, vehicle made re-entry into earth’s atmosphere at five times the speed of sound (Mach 5). Steered by the control systems guiding its navigation, the vehicle made a safe descent into Bay of Bengal at a pre-determined destination of 450km away. The current HEX was aimed at testing hypersonic re-entry into earth’s atmosphere, its survivability, vehicle re-entry capability, characterisation of aerodynamic design, validating avionics, guidance systems, testing thermal protection systems (TPS). Recovery experiments were validated by ISRO previously. Total duration of the flight from launch to landing of the RLV-TD lasted for 770 seconds. These included recovery of the unmanned 555-kilogram Space Capsule Recovery Experiment (SRE-1) launched by PSLV on January 10^th 2007 and recovered on January 22^nd from Bay of Bengal. This was followed by recovery of the Crew Module Atmospheric Re-entry Vehicle (CARE) launched by GSLV Mark-3 on December 18^th 2014. The current experiment is third one in a row. Hence landing and recovery are not prime aspects of current launch. Each phase of testing will focus on the different aspects involved in developing a spacecraft.

Water landing has been planned as India doesn’t have a run way of 5 km. In subsequent steps attempts would be made to land the vehicle on the runway by releasing it from an aircraft from a height of about 5 km.  In subsequent experiments, attempts will be made to take it to a higher altitude and prepare for ground landing. The current project is a concerted of 600 scientists who worked for over 5 years expending 95 crores.

Ever since US retired from the space shuttle program in 2011 private space companies like Space X and Blue Origin have been working towards developing the winged vehicles that can make horizontal landing. Now Europe is developing mini-space shuttles and in February 2015, a prototype Intermediate Experimental Vehicle (IXV) was successfully tested. But European Space Agency is suffering from numerous delays and funding problems. The Hope-X of Japanese Space Agency started in 1980 is now scrapped. The US Space Shuttle first launched in 1981 carried out 135 missions till July 2011 when it was finally decommissioned. It had a fleet of five orbiter space planes: Atlantis, Challenger, Columbia, Discovery and Endeavour. Columbia and Challenger were destroyed following tragic accidents. These were developed to deploy satellites into orbits, carry scientific experiments, to service and repair International Space Station & orbiting satellites and to carry out military operations. These constituted the Space Transportation System (STS) and they had orbiter, propulsion systems-two solid rocket boosters (SRB), three main engines and an external fuel tank. Buran, the space shuttle of Russia started in 1973 in response of US Space Shuttle Program completed one unmanned space flight in 1988 before its cancellation in 1993 following the collapse of Soviet Union. Till now only US, Russia, Europe and Japan successfully launched space shuttles.

Traditionally, a reusable vehicle system (RLV) is designed to carry a launch vehicle into space more than once. In contrast the expendable satellite launch vehicles that are launched once and discarded as different stages burn off and separate from the vehicle. Space exploration and space utilisation are often deterred by huge expenses incurred in building instruments for space access. The cost of delivering 1 kilogram of payloads into designated orbit using conventional rockets is $12000. India currently spends Rs 300 Crores annually on satellite launches. The lofty challenge of sending payloads to even Low Earth Orbits (LEO) even after 55 years of initial space affair remained a formidable task. Even now the advanced rockets could hardly carry 2% of the vehicle launch load. Scientists eventually hit upon the promising idea of using RLV to cut down the expenses by 10 times through recovery of solid rocket boosters using parachutes. RLVs are basically preferred to achieve economies of scale. The recent technology demonstrator is mere initial test success before reaching the milestone of developing a technologically full-fledged Indian Space Shuttle. Lowering cost of space flights can increase affordability boosting the lucrative business of space travel.

Despite being a test demonstration, RLV-TD received international attention since ISRO with its amazing economies of scale has caught the imagination of the west. Notwithstanding the sophistication and excellence attained by NASA, a comparison is drawn between NASA and ISRO with regards to cost benefit ratio. West seriously considers India as a potential competitor and is now keenly following every move of ISRO. But for India the dream of an Indian Space Shuttle is still 10-15 years away. Currently ISRO is keen on capturing the global space market for mid-range satellite segment. The focus on RLV now is to carry payloads and not for carrying astronauts. In the meanwhile developing the RLV technology can be an excellent option as it can potentially enhance the capabilities and competencies of ISRO.

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India’s World War II Parable

Last year countries that emerged victorious and those resurrected from the clutches of imperialism together enthusiastically celebrated the 70^th anniversary of the bloodiest and the most destructive war fought so far- World War II. World War II eventually led to creation of the UN, end of imperialism of European powers, rise of two world superpowers, independence for countries in Middle East, Africa and South Asia and East Asia and birth of Israel.

India’s trivialization so far as opposed to unabashedly acclaiming its contributions towards World War II is exceptional. The way India has been disassociating itself from the commemorations needs a serious rethinking. While the World War II has been a defining moment for many countries like Russia and China. India was largely a divided camp with the architect of Indian Independence movement, Indian National Congress sternly opposing British’s war preparations and the hardened chunk of disguised leftists shifting their stance after Germany attacked Soviet Union in 1941. While the Indian National Congress expressed its strongest concerns towards Fascism and Nazism, it was against joining British forces whose imperialism had ushered India into depravation, underdevelopment and misery. Indian leaders contradicted its involvement in the war for decolonization when basic democratic rights and individual liberties of Indians were interdicted. In sharp contrast Muslim League having supported British war efforts gained strength and garnered enough thrust for its campaign for creation of Pakistan leading to partition of India along religious lines. On the other hand, Congress was not consulted and banned by British before declaration of India’s entry into war in September 1939.

Despite obstinate opposition from the Indian leaders as a British Colony, India being a least industrialized nation became potential supplier of raw materials, food grains, ammunitions, woolen clothing, iron ore, timber etc. Further the British received invaluable military assistance, and huge donations from five hundred Indian princely states. Nizam of Hyderabad had funded 2 RAF (Royal Air Force) fighter squadrons and in return British gifted him a captured German Bf-109 single engine fighter Indian Forces fought on land, sea and in air. During the initial two years of the war when British was embattled by German invasion and Axis victory seemed imminent, fierce display of courage by Indian troops turned battle in favor of Allied forces.

British were no strangers to courageous contributions of Indian troops that fought alongside its soldiers during the 150 years long colonial association. While British acknowledged unsurpassed battle valor of Indians, “Indianisation” of army and its modernization received less prominence. As a result, Indian Army was critically short of battle ready troops for its size in 1939. But following declaration of war troops were quickly raised and by the end of the war India Army emerged as the largest Allied forces contingent. India contributed over 2.6 million troops (2, 581,726) that were pulled to fight in Germany, Italy, North African deserts, West Africa, defend Suez Canal, Burma and along valleys of Kohima. They also helped in liberating British Colonies after Japan’s surrender in August 1945. Due to its strategic location India acted as base for American forces ferrying supplies to Chinese Nationalist efforts, supported British that fought against Germany in Middle East and against Japan when it seized Singapore, Malaya and Burma. Indian Army excelled on battle field and gave an edge to the Allied Forces by floundering German blitzkrieg. Around 14 million Indians worked continuously to keep up with the war requirements. Right before onset of war, over 60,000 British troops received special training under American supervision in Ramgarh (Bihar) with the finances drawn from the treasury of Government of India. The exceptional battle prowess of Indian troops greatly reduced the death toll of the Common Wealth troops. The bloodied war claimed lives of 36,000 Indian troops and left 64,354 severely injured. In all 4000 gallantry awards and 31 Victoria Crosses were awarded to Indian Army men.

By 1941 the political upheaval in India reached its zenith with congress leaders stirring up independence campaign by linking India’s independence to its participation in the War. In 1942 Gandhi launched Quit India Movement that triggered massive riots and protests across India. British nipped the movement in its inception by arresting over 60,000 national and local Congress leaders, who remained in jail till the end of World War. Subhash Chandra Bose a revolutionary Congress leader steam rolled India’s independence movement in 1942 by raising Indian National Army (INA) from the exiles and Prisoners of War from Singapore and joined the Japanese troops against British and its Common Wealth Forces in Burma, Imphal and Kohima. He also headed the Provisional Government of Free India that controlled no Indian Territory. Japan by 1942 captured Andaman and Nicobar Islands and handed over nominal control to Provisional Government of Free India in 1943.

British over-exploited India’s natural resources and ruthlessly diverted food grains to the war functionaries. The Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic history succinctly estimated that nearly 35% of India’s annual cotton production or approximately 5,000,000,000 yards went into making of war supplies. In total 196.7 million tons of coal, 6 million tons of iron ore, and 1.12 million tons of steel, timber, woolen clothes, ammunition were supplied by India. India manufactured 50 different kinds of arms and ammunition and nearly three-fourths of it was diverted for war. Reports released by FAO too endorsed that rampant deforestation occurred in India during colonial times. British through enactment of Forest Act of 1876, declared forests as national resources ending the control of Zamindars. Millions of trees were fell to build ships, railway lines, sleepers etc. Records indicated that first era of deforestation coincided with enactment of the new forest act and the next debilitating phase of deforestation occurred in 1940.

By 1943 India was reeling under a man-made catastrophe that led to starvation deaths of 3.5 million people in Bengal. MadhuSree Mukherjee’s in her meticulously researched book “Churchill’s secret war: the British Empire and ravaging of India during the World War II” categorically expounds the heart-rending tales of people during the Great Bengal Famine and the reasons for such an adversity. She emphatically propounded that while the British war cabinet received several warnings of impending shortage of food grain it conveniently chose to ignore the looming disaster. Bengal used to import of 2 million tons of rice from Burma whose transit was stopped during Burma Campaign. Despite food grain deficit, Bengal was ordered to export 260,000 tons of rice to other South Asian countries that could no longer receive rice imports from Burma. Viceroy of India Linlithgow, appalled by the catastrophic proportions of Great famine pleaded Churchill to ship 6, 00,000 tons of grain to avert the disaster. Churchill armed with an excuse of shortage of ships sent less than five percent of requirement and diverted merchant ships in the Indian Ocean to Atlantic. Meanwhile as the war expenditure of India increased by tenfold, government ordered for printing of paper currency. With inflation soaring, poor people especially artisans, craftsmen, labor who could ill afford succumbed to starvation. Despite the debilitating Bengal famine British government turned down the 100,000 tons of Burmese rice voluntarily offered Subhash Chandra Bose, wheat from Canada, rice and wheat gifted by Americans were turned down. Famine finally came to an end when Bengal harvested its crop in December 1943. Apart from India the callousness of Churchill caused famine in British colonies of Kenya, Tanganyika, and British Somaliland. Regardless of the acute shortages of the food grains and various agricultural products, the British insolently kept on importing tons of sugar, wheat, meat, live cattle, fish, rice, tea, cocoa, gallons of wine for storage. As a result Britain had highest ever stock pile of food grains and their overflowing stocks had to be stored outdoors covered by tarpaulins.

While Germans were censured for unleashing an orgy of genocide British weren’t far behind in enacting a similar act on India. British followed scorched-earth policy when India’s eastern frontier was attacked by Japanese and INA forces. Consequently all the modes of transport like ships, boats, bullocks, elephants were impounded in Bengal. Thus the movement of people was literally halted and the impoverished people of Bengal province had no chance of escaping the grueling food crisis.

The Axis powers desideratum of Greater Co-Prosperity Sphere eventually propelled Japanese armies in 1941 to venture into Burma’s jungles and launch surprise attacks on the US Pacific Fleet’s base at Pearl Harbour. Enthused by triumphs in Hong-Kong, Malay Peninsula and Singapore, Japan invaded Burma with a primary objective of shutting off supplies to the nationalist forces led by Chiang-Ki-Shek through Burma Road. Further Burma being Gate way to India, Japan believed that Indian insurrection towards British could facilitate the entry of troops into the Indian Territory through Assam. Japanese forces had sizeable Indian troops captured after fall of Malaya and Singapore along with Subhash Chandra Bose’s INA troops who hoped to liberate India from clutches of British launched attacks on Imphal and Kohima to destabilize India simmered by independence movement. British launched Burma campaign in 1942 but the inexperienced Burma Corps (Bur Corps) comprising of Indian and Burmese troops commanded by British lost ground in 1942.  A quick overhauling of the attack by the 14^th Army comprising of the British, Indian and African formations registered initial success by capturing Mandalay in March 1945 and by May 3^rd Allied troops firmly established their position in Rangoon. 14^th Army Battalion of India led by Lt. General William Slim, has been instrumental in scripting first convincing victory for the Allied Powers in Burma. Last of the Japanese troops were pushed out of the Kohima valley by June 22^nd ending Japanese seize of Kohima.

By the end of World War II, India was critically depleted of resources and economy was in ruins. The financial benefits reaped by British personnel in India was enviable. The technical and administrative personnel working in India used to earn 2,000, 000 pounds a year and the civilian pensions paid by India in UK were 3,000,000 pounds a year.  Finally the British rewarded India’s outstanding contributions towards their victory by destroying several air crafts and other war supplies before retreating. They carried back the B-24 Liberator Bombers built during the World War II by Walchandnagar Aircraft Company (precursor to Hindustan Aeronautical Limited) Bangalore. The Maintenance Command of the British at Kanpur deliberately destroyed expensive rudimentary components of bombers labelling them as excess and aircrafts were crash dropped on to the ground by their tail with their nose hitting the ground from a height. These wanton acts of sabotaging strategic assets were an irreparable loss to already deteriorated Indian economy.

Official records World over had credible records of the losses incurred by the Allied and Axis Powers involved in the war, sacrifices rendered and financial hardships endured by colonies of the European Imperial powers were sparingly commemorated. Pathetically, India’s role in the World war is unappreciated. After the war while claims over wealth and territories were equally distributed among the allies India was forced to shell out $24 million towards UN Relief and Rehabilitation Administration (UNRRA). While Britain and France during the war were bailed out of bankruptcy through the Lend-Lease Act of 1941 and later by Marshall Plan of the US, India inherited a shattered economy. The only major war gain for India is obtaining Full-Independence. The monumental sacrifices rendered by over 90,000 of India soldiers in their fight against fascism and Nazism laid foundations for a new world order. Unfortunately, incoherent Indian nationalist response that existed during the World and later grossly failed to pay a fitting tribute to the supreme sacrifices made by the Indian Army personnel. It is important to recall the invaluable contributions of India else there is danger of being written off from the history.

 

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Beginning Of A New End: Assembly Election 2016

The electoral verdict of the four assembly elections clearly pushed the country inches closer to the slogan CongressMukt advocated by the BJP. Back in 2014, old critics lashed out at BJP and trounced the saffron brigade for its vehement appeal to end the dynasty rule of the Congress. The slogan was ridiculed, the idea was drubbed as a day dream. But the results of assembly elections conducted through an extended phase of polling clearly delivered a decisive mandate enunciating their choices. In all, Congress was badly trounced. It lost miserably in Assam and Kerala. In Tamilnadu Congress alliance with DMK was trumped by AIADMK and in West Bengal it became the second largest party. The 131 year old, colossal Congress party with its eternal flow of funds, extended grass root presence, huge popularity and resourceful cadre support was believed to be invincible had bungled. Encumbered by decadence, decrepit of visionary leadership, the legendary Congress party under the siege of inept dynasty is bouncing towards an inglorious end.

The Grand old political party of India with a pan Indian presence and control, now governs just 6 states- Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, Manipur Meghalaya and Mizoram. With its huge electoral bastions plundered by an aspirational national party and aggressive regional satraps, Congress party gradually lost its relevance and presence. Congress party suffered its first massive jolt in 2014 General Elections, when it failed to clinch the position of the leader of opposition in the Lok Sabha.  Despite amassing nine successive defeats, the party refused to resurrect. The reluctant leadership refused to concede and understand the message delivered by the electorate. Consequently, its electoral base, which largely included minorities and other groups slowly drifted away and shifted loyalties. Moreover, the capricious and reluctant leadership of the party could no longer match the spirited aspirations of the country bubbling with demographic dividend. Commanded by a young leader, forever in making, the party miserable failed to connect to the aspirational youth. Plagued by recalcitrance, the hierarchy refused to cede ground to youthful ideas and new leadership. The partisan leadership grudgingly held the authority, oblivious of the ground realities, with loud rants and capricious promises reminiscent of 70’s the Congress is nearing decadence. It has steadily stumbled from the position of a commander-in-chief to an opportunistic coalition partner. Its desperation to be part of the Mahaghatbandan in Bihar and the conniving alliance with the Left Front in West Bengal simply reflects its infamous decline. Further subsumed by political opportunism, minority appeasement, corruption, beleaguered local leadership Congress steadily backslided. 

The current assembly elections marks emergence of a new era in Indian politics. For the first time in independent India, a non-Congress party is set to govern larger share of Indian population. Steady decline of Congress is expected to continue. Himachal Pradesh mired in corruption is all set to lose ground to BJP in the ensuing assembly elections. Uttarakhand too is politically precariously poised with 8 rebel congress MLAs ready to join BJP. If the dissident MLAs are allowed to participate in the floor test, the Congress will lose the northern state. Manipur is staring towards political turmoil. Congress may then be left with three states to govern. Even the next round of assembly elections in 2017, Congress is not expected to make any gains. Congress had faint chances of clinching power in Punjab, but poll survey has already pronounced a sweeping victory for AAP.

Further this round of assembly elections had presented a vivid picture of the evolving political scenario in the country. The resounding victories of Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and Jayalalitha in Tamilnadu witnessed the emergence of ambitious regional leaders. Overwhelmed by the unexpected gains Banerjee hinted at a central role and expressed her willingness to work with like-minded parties to form a strong third front. Similarly Nitish Kumar post-Bihar elections and soon after donning the post of Party President called for a Sangh Mukt Bharat and invited parties to form an alliance. Thus, strong regional players will over a period of time pose a strong challenge to national parties. While Congress, having lost its sheen may no longer be a strong contender, BJP must soon gain more ground and change its stratagem to remain relevant. Already, parties like AAP are slowly making formidable presence in the states where electorate are antipathetic to national parties. AAP has already identified the gaps and aggressively campaigning in states like Punjab and Goa for 2017.

The BJP with its stellar performance in 2014 general elections, obtained a clear majority and soon evolved as a serious player. Though critics undermined the convincing victory citing poor vote share (poor acceptability), the party continued the impressive winning streak and silenced them. For the past three decades, saffron brigade considered as a political untouchable. Meanwhile the electoral debacle in Delhi and Bihar assembly elections believed to be a fallout of political hubris, stung as a wakeup call to party cadres. Undeterred by the electoral drubbing, BJP learnt its lessons and bounced back with thumping victory in Assam. By opening an account in Kerala, it penetrated the strong Left bastion and increased its vote share in Tamilnadu and Puducherry. Though it couldn’t maintain the 2014 electoral vote share in Bengal, its performance improved substantially (compared to 2011 assembly elections). With crucial assembly elections scheduled for 2017, the party can ill afford to be complacent. 

Moreover with more scams being unearthed and more skeletons tumbling out, Congress leadership is bracing for tough days. As congress party begins to lose more states, funding would turn out be an acute problem. With leadership showing no interest in reviving the party, the rut clogging the conduits may hasten its stagnation and decline. Soon Congress will cease to a lucrative alliance partner. Congress which is the largest party in Rajya Sabha so far, effectively blocked passage of several bills. With 9 nine of its members retiring, loses in the assembly elections will reduce their numbers. Similarly the allies of UPA too will end up losing as many as 15 seats. Soon its clout will be reduced in Rajya Sabha. In short, despite pleas for major revamp within the party, the dynasty has been eloquently postponing the task. Bihar victory has stalled the process of internal rejig within the party, if any. Slowly the party might face the prospect of desertions from its staunch allies. Worse still, the reluctance of Rahul Gandhi to project himself as a viable alternative might propel party to its eventual decline and irrelevance.

 

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Heralding Inclusion in a Cosmopolitan City: Sadiq Khan

In an avowedly, Christian country of the advanced west, election of a Muslim and second generation immigrant Sadiq Khan to the prestigious post of Mayor of London generated new fluster. Till 2000, all the urban officials and mayoral candidates were appointed and with the enactment of Greater London Authority Act of 1999 London Mayoral elections ensued. This illustrious beginning viewed as a “symbolic victory” by Muslim Imams in London comes at a time when Donald Trump with thumping win at the Indiana State primaries has become presumptive Republican nominee. Ever since the beginning of the Presidential Elections campaigning, Trump with his characteristic sweeping and vicious statements like ban on Muslims in US has reignited xenophobic mistrust, hate and fear. Mayoral elections of London has steered the concourse away from mistrust and heralded a new beginning of inclusion.  Conservative parties in London, cozied up and unleashed a ludicrous campaign against Labor party nominee, Khan before elections, alleging him of dividing London’s communities to win votes. Despite the bitterness spewed at the son of Pakistani driver and the human rights lawyer, Sadiq Khan, he convincingly won the elections. Much to the chagrin of the rightist parties, supported by the Jews, gays, lesbians and ethnic minorities, Khan eventually pulled out a massive victory. It was believed that the opposition has used every dirty trick in the book to brandish Khan as an extremist. But the spuriously, venomous campaign against Khan had miserably buckled under the strength of the inclusion doctrine evinced by Khan.  The barrage of allegations included Khan’s association with the sympathizers of Islamic extremists. All ghastly and bizarre tricks were played by the Zac Glodsmith, a billionarie of Conservative Party to conflate extremism and terrorism before the elections to swing the undecided electorate in his favor. Ironically, the campaign mauled in negativity suffered a humiliating defeat with Sadiq Khan registering biggest-ever political win in British Electoral history. This election has indeed several lessons to offer to the Donald Trump’s campaign roiled in religious bigotry and contemptuous aversion towards immigrants.

While this precedent is remarked as a new beginning in Europe, historians opine that Islam has been a major religion in Europe for the past 1300 years. Medieval Europe was dominated by three religions- paganism, Christianity and Islam. Especially in Spain and Southern France by 12^th century there has been an intense competition between Christianity and Islam. Interestingly, both Christianity and Islam have their origins in Middle East and several rounds of migration from Turkey and Syria continuously led to burgeoning presence of Islam in Europe. Europe has been least inaccessible and unoccupied for several centuries as it was covered in ice. No sooner the layers of ice began to melt, people from Middle East, Eurasia and Africa began to migrate to the new continent. While history offers a replete of fine examples of inclusiveness, divisive forces looming large in the contemporary times are casting a dark shadow by alienating communities and people of different ethnic origins. While fierce arguments whether a Muslim dominated society would elect a Chrisitian and vice-versa, here is a list of such treasured examples—Sitting elected Muslim mayors include Erion Veliaj of Tirana, Albania; Ahmed Aboutaleb of Rotterdam, Netherlands and Shpend Ahmeti of Pristina, Kosavo (1). Similarly Muslim majorities too elected a Christian- Ivo Komsic in 2003 in Sarajevo; Mardin, a Turkish City elected a female Christian Mayor Februniye Akyal; Indonesia has a Christian Governor Basuki Tjahay;, Alees Salman, a Christian female in 2005 chaired Baharain’s upper house of Parliament (2).

As frantic assaults, bomb and suicidal attacks continue to threaten the continent, a new level of disguised intolerance has been seeping into the continent. These conniving brutal attacks by extremists all of them invariably rooted to a single religion has gradually changed the perception of the people towards Islam. An aura of new apprehensions grossly related to religion of a person is in vogue. Inevitably people under the burden of the repeated violent attacks have developed a deep-seated anguish towards the community. But a broader perspective about attributing terrorism to one religion may not be right in all instances. Intellectuals opine individuals allegiance to state be considered first than religion to make smart decisions. Welcomingly, London electorate overriding the religion practiced by Khan had sought to vote in favor of a person who displayed incredible resolve to defy odds and work towards the goals (inclusivity) cherished by him. Earlier he served as a Communities minister and then as transport minister in Gordon Brown’s cabinet becoming first Muslim to occupy such a position. He was Labour’s shadow justice secretary under Ed Miliband.

Burgeoning demographic dividend across the globe has resulted in a tumultuous increase in migration of people to new destinies in search of better living conditions. United States of America, the acclaimed superpower is indeed land of immigrants. Multinational communities have become the order of the day. In order to strengthen and nourish harmony among the people of various ethnicities, democratic societies, which are considered more inclusive must set a new precedent. A harmonious society, barred of any kind of religious, ethnic and cultural discriminations alone can survive the onslaught of divisive forces. Peaceful nation can alone tread on the path of development and prosperity. Just now while I am writing this article, I heard the news of another violent stabbing in Munich claiming an innocent life. The World is besot by the inexplicable contagion of rising of brutal attacks in the name of religion. More so, currently Europe is experiencing a sudden surge in number of bomb attacks and violent stabbings. Needless to say, the continent is steadily bearing the brunt of the religious extremism. Indeed experts have pointed out that the vicious attacks in Brussels has been a classic case of poor integration of immigrants. When immigrants get alienated, they invariably turn into fertile ground for religious extremism and become susceptible to radicalization. Successful assimilation and integration of migrants and acclimatization to mainstream norms and culture can bring contentment and prosperity into the lives of the immigrants.

Victory of Sadiq Khan truly exemplifies evolution of a new precedent and an “antidote” to extremism as he claims. Being a successful role model hailing from the Islamic faith and Pakistani origin, in an interview to the Time Khan says, he can truly motivate and inspire the Muslim youth who are lured into extremism. Further he elaborates that electorate came out in record numbers to cast their vote clearly indicating that they respect, embrace and celebrate the genesis of new order. In reply to the Donald Trump’s ban on entry of Muslims into US, Khan said he is planning to visit to US before January incase, Trump gets elected as a President. He intends to engage and exchange ideas with American Mayors. Truly, the conservative doctrine advocated by certain political parties and ideologues is meaningless in the era of globalization. Countries can longer afford to have impervious boundaries. In the modern times, with an advancement of technologies no part of globe in inaccessible and impenetrable. With constant influx of new ideas and people to new regions, countries are becoming richer and prosperous. Labour optimists now started emphasizing that thanks to Sadiq Khan, a black or Asian England Prime Minister is no longer inconceivable. But beyond eloquent rhetoric and objectionable apprehensions, there are high level of expectations from Khan who promised be a “mayor for all Londoners”.

Perhaps, Khan’s election is a message to their peers in the US to admonish and subvert the doctrine of conservatism advocated and welcomed by a section of society. Despite palpable optimism of resurgence of inclusivity, there is an unprecedented increase in the Islamophobic comments and racial slurs. While the disruptive and divisive campaigns in India have politically divided the Hindus and Muslims in India, all the British-Asians (irrespective of religion) voted in favor of Khan who promised a more inclusive society. 

 

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Fairy Tale Premier League Win of Leicester City

Sports season is on and the level of exhilaration and suspense is palpable. Be it the invincible IPL of India or the Formula 1 racing nothing enthuses young and old alike like sports. With the biggest sporting extravaganza, Rio Olympics, poised to start in couple of months, sports enthusiasts are geared to relish extraordinary stories of grit, determination and intense toil. In the meanwhile, the spectacular success story of Leicester City, Football Club, of English Premium League (EPL) created ripples in the football by clinching its maiden Premier League title. Described as “Fairy Tale Premier League Win”, the unusually taunt and avaricious football pundits are singing encomiums of Leicester City. Truly, the meteoric rise of the EPL club, precariously hanging at the cusp of the relegation zone last year, surprised everyone with their miraculous rise. In fact the club gained entry into the premier league two years ago.

Leicester City’s phenomenal triumph is a story of underdogs humbling the high and mighty. Till now the “Big Four”- Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal of English Premier League (EPL) largely dominated the game, receiving bountiful sponsorships. With their franchise shops spread across the World, they reaped the unbounded love of football enthusiasts. Indeed even the biggest scramble for the prized Premier League rested with the Big Four. Since its institution in 1992, barring a rare instance of Blackburn Rovers winning the title in 1995, Premier League title was largely held by the quartet. With two more matches to play, Leicester team assembled for £57 million, has convincingly mortified the top order clubs. The amounts invested in building the clubs as per recent study is as follows: Tottenham (£159m), Arsenal (£231m), Liverpool (£260m), Chelsea (£280m), Manchester United (£395m) and Manchester City (£415m). Leicester is fourth lowest in payroll. With Chelsea drawing the match with Tottenham Hotspurs on Monday, Leicester emerged as title winners.

EPL is the most highly watched premier league in the World and enjoys an unparalleled viewership. It has been largely observed that Champions tend to come from the top four of the previous season. Considering previous season’s performance of Leicester City, when it occupied 14^th position out of 20 no one predicted this remarkable turnaround. Most believed that the club might soon be relegated and demoted to second tier of English clubs. Last year August England betting firm Ladbrokes offered 5000-1 odds on Leicester winning the game. Even otherwise, only thrice, since the World War II, had the teams promoted from the second tier went on to win the title-Tottenham Hotspurs in 1951, Ipswich Town in 1962 and Nottingham Forest in 1978. In 2008-9 Leicester was lying in the third tier English Football Pyramid, the League one, but went on to scale the pyramid remarkably faster. The stupendous success of the team is all the more special in this modern era of football league since dollars are splurged on clubs. With a deluge of finances streaming through the top-notch clubs, the parity among clubs has become unbridgeable. Statistics from the soccer enthusiasts indicated that from 1950 through 1980, teams rose for lower tier to top tier eight times and only twice from 1981 to 1995. Clearly indicating that modern day football unlike the yester years is quite different and dramatic. Leicester’s phenomenal success is indeed very special as in contemporary times, steady rise of club in table is inextricably linked to the finances flushed into replenishing the team with high-order players. With EPL ambitiously signing deals international broadcasting cable channels for obscene amounts, dollar rush is bound to play a huge role. Increasingly, clubs supported by owners with deep pockets and harboring frenzied passion might eventually make their way to the top.

Defying all these odds, Leicester, an English Club, though not financially emaciated, scrupulously assembled committed, shrewd, hard-hitting, and disciplined chunk of mature players. Having lost its best midfielder and with team manager just fired, Leicester made a new beginning last year by hiring  Coach Claudio Ranieri, who recently had a disastrous stint as in charge of Greek National Team. Similar to proven success of the Money Ball (a sabermetric approach for selection of players constrained by limited payroll, experimented and tried by the Oakland Athletics Manager Billy Beane), armed with hard working players from unproven leagues the team spurred into action (of course, there is no evidence of employing similar approach by Leicester City). The EPL season which lasts for 38 matches from August to May every year, witnessed a steady and consistent performance from the team’s players. With every week, the team began to operate as a functional unit and steady rose to the top four places of the table. Unlike the traditional defensive style of playing characteristic of EPL clubs, Leicester’s game was quite aggressive. Simultaneously, with Big Four stumbling to find their momentum and grappling to unplug the inconsistencies, Leicester breezed past to the top with heroic performances. Last year Champions Chelsea suffered tumultuous set back with the team struggling to play together as a unit, Manchester United and Manchester City began with dispirited performances. Experts attributed Leicester’s success to the lackadaisical performances of the top teams. Thus they consider Leicester’s unexpected rise as an anomaly. In reality, the stellar performance of the teams’ trio-English Striker James Verdy, Algerian Winger Riyad Mahrez and midfielder N’Golo Kante accomplished the unthinkable. Riyad Mahrez was awarded the Professional Footballers’ Association Player of the Year.

Simply put it’s a story of underdogs hoisting themselves to the pinnacle of accomplishment unanticipated by football savants. The victory has another angle to it, for it is a source of great pride to South Asians. Leicester is owned by Thailand billionaire Vichai Srivaddanaprabha who invested in it since its acquisition in 2010. Leicester, a city in the Midlands of England, home to Asian migrants were overjoyed at the brilliant performance of its club. For several decades, the game was largely dominated by clubs from London and Lancashire while Midland teams fought hard to find their place in the League. With this title win, soon the stands would be dominated by the ethnic minorities supporting their team.  Leicester diligently managed finances and spent £36.6 million against Manchester United’s £285 million to build an incredibly strong team. Besides, Leicester employed innovative sports science, medical and coaching team. The team suffered fewest injuries as they coopted new techniques like use of cryotherapy ice chamber that made recovery easier. For long, billions dollar worth English League was dominated by Europeans and Leicester’s triumph now has strengthened Asian association with the game.

Despite its stellar success, Leicester may not be accorded the same status are the Big Fours. But clinching the title breaking past its incipient financial barriers is truly iconic. While it may be even hard for Leicester to repeat its stint, the path tread, logistics chartered and the difficulties endured can be a true inspiration. Success wasn’t a matter of chance for Leicester. It was an outcome of outperforming the big teams in grueling games that spanned over nine months of the football season. Through its incredible display of grit and perseverance Leicester redefined operational logistics of a successful football team. As several doctrines roll out deconstructing the secret formula for remarkable success- the spirited slogan of “foxes (Leicester) will never give up” alone might have steered the unheralded club to frontiers of accomplishment. With Rio Olympics all set to be inaugurated in its finest splendor in August, undaunted tales of determination, grit and hard work of exemplary sporting personalities would energize and reawaken our latent spirits. Till then, the spirited accomplishment of little-known English club will continue to inspire. For inspiration is contagious….

 

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China’s Maritime Expansion Spree

The consistent and unprecedented maritime expansion of China in the South China Sea and East China Sea has overtly turned the region into a potential conflict zone. With unquenchable thirst to push its strategic maritime boundaries beyond the Pacific Ocean, it is slowly dispelling the myth that its rise is peaceful. It unrelenting exercise of expanding its foot print both on land and waters through One Belt and One Road (OBOR) and Maritime Silk Root (MSR) are now viewed with great caution and suspicion. The series of maritime bases propped up by Beijing across three different oceans are now closely monitored. Sudden escalation of tensions in the South China Sea have been a cause of grave concern. The conflict reached a crescendo with US naval destroyer sailing within 12 nautical miles of Triton islands, claimed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam under Freedom of Navigation operations (FONOP) on January 30^th. Chinese severely condemned US action and deployed HQ-9 surface to air missile system on the Woody Islands, largest island in the Paracel archipelago in SCS. The region has turned into a potential conflict zone with China going ahead with its undeterred reclamation of the islands in the SCS. Aside, its rapid construction maneuvers over the artificial islands, China is ambitiously pursuing its maritime expansion by setting up string of islands across various strategic locations.

China reached yet another milestone by establishing its first ever military base officially, termed as a logistics facility to service military vessels in the horn of the Africa, Djibouti. In a major effort to assert its growing international stature China under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, who championed to strengthen and expand its military reach across the globe acquired the military base in Djibouti 4000 miles away from its land. By virtue of its strategic geographic location, Djibouti with a population of 900,000 is also home to a US military base in Africa. For several decades, China proclaimed that establishing overseas military base is akin to seeking hegemony and interference in internal affairs of other countries. Beijing maintained that it will refrain from such activities. But China signed 10 years lease agreement to set up naval base at Obock in Djibouti enabling it to gain access to Persian Gulf.

China’s interests in Africa are augured by its aspirations of gaining a vantage position in the Indian Ocean region. As a part of this strategy, China spent millions of dollars in development of infrastructure in Djibouti and even laid a rail road that connects it to Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, a land locked country with numerous Chinese investment projects. China is the largest trading partner of Africa with trade volume surpassing $200 billion (thrice US-Africa trade).

Ever since occupying the high seat of power in November 2012, President Xi had ambitiously envisaged to revamp its 2.3 million strong military force. In a bid to overhaul the military and introduce reforms, he first launched an intense campaign against corruption and subsequently enhanced military budget which according to Congressional research service study to about $ 145 billion. All the while China has been highly critical of America’s approach of establishing overseas military bases. But now it is busy defending its own position under the pretext of safeguarding its navigational freedom and aiding in crucial antipiracy operations. Though China frequently bespeaks of its peaceful rise and lack of expansionist attitude its unquenchable thirst of building overseas military installations reminds of typical US style of naval suffusion.

US in the meanwhile is concerned as the new base is quite close to its Camp Lemonnier base home to 4000 armed personnel  that carries out counter terrorism operations. US has recently extended its lease for 20 years with Djibouti. France too has a base in Djibouti and Japan which participates in UN antipiracy operations also stations its surveillance aircrafts and personnel there. Djibouti also hosts Pakistan and Italian military troops.

Djibouti the former French colony near Gulf of Aden has become hot-bed for overseas military installations firstly for its stable regime in the relatively volatile African East Coast and for its geographical location. It lies on the Bab el-Mandeb Straits, a gateway to Red Sea and Suez Canal, one of the busiest shipping routes. It is less than 20 miles away from the war ravaged Yemen and acts as an ideal base for international operations. China sealed an agreement to pay $100 million as annual rent for using Djibouti base, where 700 troops were stationed to protect its oil interests in South Sudan.

China steadily entered the Indian Ocean region under the guise of helping in anti-piracy operations is now expanding its foothold in the Indian Ocean region. While the Somalian piracy trouble has long disappeared, China continues to extend its presence by wooing the Indian Ocean Littoral countries. Its generous infrastructure bounties and soft credit lines to Maldives, Sri Lanka are also part of this larger strategy. In fact China established its presence in Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean by undertaking major development projects of Gwadar Port in Pakistan and Hambantota port of Sri Lanka. The large part of the schematic presence of China in western Indian Ocean will focus on military operations other than the war (MOOTW). Presence in Djibouti will enable China to respond to contingencies of the freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf region. China intends to develop a string of naval bases in the Indian Ocean region to protect its Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) and eventually expand its naval presence too. Now that US dependence of oil imports from the Arabian region has reduced, it questions US presence in the Gulf and aspires to replace its position. By and large China seems to have officially unveiled its “string of naval bases” pursuit with Djibouti logistics facility (Chinese preferred name for a base).

In a rare display of diplomatic resurgence and astuteness, China has tacitly acquired Port Darwin in the Northern territory of Australia signaling the assertion of economic and political primacy. In a chiseled attempt to severe the alliance between the US and Australia, China has been smartly investing in various infrastructure development projects in Australia. Despite, a cautionary note from President Obama Australian prime minister Malcom Turnbull okayed the $ 506 million deal of leasing out Port Darwin to a Chinese company Land bridge headed by a former top-notch Communist Party of China (CPC) official and whose secretary is Ex-PLA (People’s Liberation Army) officer, for 99-years. US was visibly concerned and upset as its military assets are stationed in North Australia under the Obama Foreign Policy of pivot to Asia-Pacific. Fort Hill Wharf, a part of the port leased to China is used by Australian Navy and other overseas militaries including the US. China is slowly gaining strategic and economic influence over Australia and some strategic analysts are really concerned as most of the Chinese private companies are owned by the state.  Earlier in 2014, state owned China Merchants Group Limited with another local company Hastings Fund Management bought Port of Newcastle in Australia. While Beijing claims that business transactions of its companies are purely economic, the incongruent ownership issues raises apprehensions over Chinese intentions internationally. Similarly Port of Townsville signed a sister port agreement with Qinzhou port, the departure port of Maritime Silk Route. The Ports of Townsville and Newcastle are very close to Royal Australia Air Force (RAAF) bases at Townsville and Williamstown respectively. Further acquisition of land next to Australia’s domestic spy agency ASIO headquarters at Canberra by Chinese billionaire, an Ex-PLA office who owns a company that manufactures Chinese military weapons heightens fears of murkier Chinese investments. Reports indicate that China is now eyeing to acquire Port Fremantle proximate to RAAF Base Pearce and HMAS Stirling. Australian analysts are now hinting at the possibility of Chinese accessing the data of CYBINT, SIGINT and HUMINT intelligence agencies as China is now trying to gain control over the NSW electricity network assets which may carry classified ADF communications.

Within Asia, China has pledged to develop Chittagong and Anwara ports in Bangladesh. China has invested in deep-sea port on the Maday Island at Kyaukphyu, Myanmar along which a pipeline worth $2.5 billion runs carrying oil and natural gas to Yunnan province. Malaysia has recently announced that it will allow Chinese vessels to dock at its port in Kota Kinabalu as a part of confidence building measures in wake of recent rivalry in South China Sea. Invoking the historic relations between the Ming dynasty and Malacca Sultanate, a port alliance was announced between 10 ports of China and five Malaysian ports (Kuantan, Bintulu, Melaka, Tanjung Pelepas and Port Klang).China holds 40% shares in Kuantan port. It has ambitiously carved out plans to develop ports with Laem Chabang in Thailand, Sihanoukville in Cambodia, Batam in Indonesia and Kuala Tanjung in Northern Sumatra. The extensive spread and prevalence of the shipping connections with parts spreading across the entire the Indian Ocean, Asia-Pacific arc is indeed intimidating.

Aside Indian Ocean, China is keen on having an overseas support bases in Atlantic. Way back in 2012 Wen Jiabao, Premier of China made a brief technical stopover on island of Terceira, in Azores. Terceira also known as Lajes air field is operated jointly by US air force and its Portugese counterpart. During World War I US Navy operated from Azores to spot German submarines and again during World War II US and UK jointly occupied the place for safeguarding the trans-Atlantic shipping. By 1946 when Portugal took over it US sealed an agreement with it and turned into a strategic asset in Atlantic Ocean. Over a period of time, it evolved as a crucial refueling and transit port for US during its Middle East operations. But of late, the bustling port a symbol of American-Portugal friendship is no longer active and Pentagon is contemplating on vacating its due to financial constraints. US strategists are firmly opposing this move since US has already closed its air naval station in Keflvik, Iceland and losing Lajes Field would be a blunder. China is close to entering into a bargain with Portugese dispensation by promising to refurbish a port few miles away from the airbase. US is visibly distraught as Lajes is mere 2300 miles away from US. Located close to mouth of Mediterranean, China can track the air and water traffic between US and Europe.

New Delhi can hardly afford to ignore the lurking presence and explicit augmentation of Chinese maritime capabilities in its realm of influence. But India’s depleting naval assets and inadequate replenishment of maritime resources should be a cause for major concern. Moreover, India shouldn’t go by Chinese theatrics of “no military ambition in Djibouti”, for it has mastered the art of subterfuge. Namibia released a report indicating that China is planning on setting up 18 military bases across in Indian Ocean. These include Chongjin Port (North Korea), Moresby Port (New Guinea), Shinoukville Port (Cambodia), Koh Lanta Port (Thailand), Sittwe Port (Myanmar), Dhaka Port (Bangladesh), Gwadar Port (Pakistan), Hambantota Port (Sri Lanka), Maldives, Seychelles, Yemen, Oman, Djibouti, Lagos (Nigeria), Mombasa (Kenya), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), Luanda (Angola), Walvis Bay (Namibia) . But Chinese authorities quickly refuted the report (8). Djibouti is clearly a new beginning, a preview to the larger panorama of China’s geopolitical ambitions. The overwhelming presence of China and its staggering Naval spread slowly does indicate its contradictory diction of peaceful. Intriguingly, Chinese academicians attribute the domineering approach to its “Chinese dream” which aims to gain greater strategic mileage at the behest of economic interests. Though Beijing never misses an opportunity to condemn western hegemony, the dragon is desperately positioning itself as the new super power on the international power landscape. Interestingly, China dismisses this massive strategic maritime exercise, as an act of building trade routes under the Maritime Silk Road slogan of Xi. But is it really uncouth to call this humongous network of maritime outreach a legitimate rise?

 

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Indo-US Space Race

Rapid advancements in science and technology, the corner stone of 21^st century has ushered the mankind into an era of stupendous achievements. Propitiously, the new accomplishments are nearly closing the gap of what was considered an impossible event a century ago into a reality.  The incredible path of progress traversed by several thousands of scientists by virtue of their ingenuity and tremendous engineering feats have redefined the milieu of impossibility. India’s ace space research institute, ISRO attained the pinnacles of excellence and garnered global and in particular space-faring nations’ attention through its successful Mangalyaan mission. Registering a resplendent success in its maiden attempt at a miniscule cost ISRO’s clout as an emerging scientific leader began to gain momentum.

Notwithstanding, the initial setbacks, Indian space industry has bounced back with incredible vigor and has been making a mark for itself in the global space market with its economies of scale. India has emerged a viable competitor in the satellite launching segment of the space industry. Indian work horse Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) has so far launched satellites of less than 2000kg for 20 different countries into a variety of orbits (sun synchronous, geosynchronous transfer and low earth orbits of small inclination). In all, ISRO has launched 51 foreign satellites from 1994 to 2015. Indeed ISRO launched four US satellites in September 15^th. Realizing the tremendous potential of India Space Program, US ambassador to India on Feb 25^th exalted growing US-India cooperation in Space at the ORF Kalpana Chawla Annual Space Policy Dialogue. Reminiscing the journey of US-India space cooperation, beginning 1963, when India launched US-made sounding rocket or research rocket from the Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, he harped on the need for a robust cooperation. The following day, US Department of Transportation’s Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued an advisory approving the ban on using ISRO’s launching services by US commercial satellites. The US private space industry has expressed its concerns indicating that the low-cost options of ISRO, largely funded by government would “distort the conditions of competition”.

US commissioned Commercial Space Launch Services Act in 1984 approved by President Ronald Regan to protect its domestic launch industry from the government-funded foreign launches. Accordingly, they have coerced nations like Russia, China and Ukraine to sign the agreement in early 90s. In 2005 US forced India to sign the same and India declined. As a result Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) recommended a ban on using Indian services for launching US commercial satellites for 10 years ending in 2015. Now they issued a fresh advisory ensuring the continuation of the ban. CSLA set the domestic US launch services as the World minimum effectively curbing the entry of foreign launch services that can operate at low cost into the global space market. Undeterred by the ban, ISRO’s commercial arm Antrix Corporation negotiated deals for the government of India. India is slated to launch 25 commercial satellites in 2016-17 which includes 12 satellites of US and the remaining 13 from Germany, Canada, Algeria, Japan, Indonesia and Malaysia. In a stellar satellite launch accomplishment ISRO’s PSLV-34 aims to put 22 micro, nano satellites of various countries into orbits in May this year at one go. The dubious stance, double-speak and inconsistency of the American space policy towards India is truly debilitating. It reminds of the inglorious sanctions and embargoes imposed on India at various stages of Indian Space Odyssey that crippled and hampered its progress.

Indian space program was largely scuttled by international sanctions after the nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998 which lasted till 2011. The curbs imposed on Indian space agencies and allied defence organizations were lifted completely only after India signed and ratified civil nuclear treaty with the US. Aside severe curbs on technology transfer and imports of the invaluable raw materials from the Western countries, in 1992 developed countries declared technology apartheid against India. Russia who had promised to assist India with the cryotechnology the lifeline of the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), under pressure from US, reneged on its promise. Subsequently, India’s march towards acquiring self-reliance for hoisting heavy/communication satellite into orbits was halted. In January 1991, ISRO signed an agreement with Glavkosmos, Russian Space Agency, for the sale of cryogenic engines. By May, 1991 US imposed sanctions in India and Russia for violating the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Russia, later delivered 7 engines but withheld the crucial technology.

Indian Space program paid heavy price for the numerous obstacles deliberate delays caused by the vested interests. The sabotage in the form of the dubious spying case framed against the two exceptionally brilliant scientists- in-charge of the cryogenic program, Nambi Narayanan and D. Sasi Kumar in ISRO delayed our journey by 19 years. The allegations of spying framed not only ripping them off their distinguished scientific careers, but also led to their unceremonious exit from the organization. Besides being labelled as spies the severe torment and humiliation suffered by them is inexplicable. Consequently India was forced to shell out thousands of dollars to use the European Space Agency (ESA)’s Ariane 5 rocket for deploying communication satellites weighing more than 2000 kg. ESA charges $20,000 for deploying one kilogram of payload into geostationary orbit 36,000 km above the equator. Thus the cost hoisting a satellite excluding its transportation and building is 250 crore rupees while entire cost of GSLV project is 370 crores.

The sabotage theory holds ground as the book “Russia in Space- A Failed Frontier” by the British space writer Brian Harvey vouched for the plans of imperiled nations and role of CIA in blocking India from perfecting the cryotechnology. Nations feared that India’s progress might be detrimental to their prospects in the business of the space technology and nuclear energy. Hence these scandals were witch crafted to derail and delay the Indian technological missions which could otherwise lead the nation into a sphere of self-reliance.Further, the untimely deaths of the two Indian giant space scientists –Homi Jehangir Bhabha, father of Indian nuclear program and Vikram Sarabhai in mysterious circumstances at very crucial stages of technological advancements speaks volumes of the larger international conspiracy.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Indian leadership having realized the immense potential of space technology pursued it as a foreign policy tool with national security perspective. The idea of SAARC satellite, a communication and meteorological satellite envisaged by Prime Minister Modi at the 18^th SAARC summit at Nepal, owes its genesis to the new aspect of space diplomacy. Conforming to the doctrine of neighborhood first policy, India offered to gift SAARC nations with the satellite that could enhance the communication services of all the 8 nations. Expressing its serious reservations about the safety its space program data, Pakistan has pulled out of this project. With Pakistan opting out of the SAARC satellite project, India renamed it as South Asian satellite. The South Asian Satellite weighing 2000kg, containing 12-Ku band transponders with a coverage area of all the seven SAARC nations is all set to be launched later this year. In the first week of April 11 international space agencies have met in New Delhi and decided to develop a global space observatory for monitoring climate change. Thus, the preponderance for collectively achieving common goals is now spurring nations to invest in space cooperation.

India had mooted the idea of “BRICS constellation of satellites” for disaster risk reduction and has managed to draw the support of China for the same. It is believed that Chinese National Space Agency (CNSA) has been rigorously pushing forward the idea of launching a constellation of satellites basically to “enhance its international voice and influence in the field of aerospace”. In spite of soaring animosities, India and China are keen on working together since indigenous space programs of both nations suffered huge initial setbacks due to the denial of technology and long drawn embargoes by the US. US having crippled the progression of space programs of these emerging nations is now enthusiastically looking forward to rope in both nations for its ambitious ‘boots on Mars by 2030’. With NASA bracing budgetary constraints, Indian Space Journalist Pallav Bhagla opined that NASA’s new found interest in collaborating with these nations stems from the hope that these “emerging giants would dole out resources”. While China has been exceptionally keen on collaborating with India for the BRICS constellation of satellites, its real intent is shrouded with apprehensions. Russia has been a valuable partner for India’s space program. Of late India placed an order for a Lunokhod rover and Lander from Russia, for the Chandrayaan-2 mission. But the delivery is subjected to interminable delays and Russian experts later confounded that China is exerting considerable pressure on Moscow to limit its cooperation. Spurned by the delays India has started developing the lander indigenously. Reeling under the financial clamp down of the international sanctions imposed following Ukranian crisis, Russia began to lean towards China. Hence the prospect of space cooperation with China must be taken with a pinch of salt.

Interestingly, while high-level diplomatic Indo-US engagement is hovering over the headlines of international newspapers, US space agencies under the ruse of government-subsidies is trying to nip the commercial success of Indian Space Agency. Commercial space industry in US is gaining lot of ground with successful business leaders pumping in thousands of dollars into lucrative ventures. Indeed the US space countries have been using Mojave Desert as the testing ground for all their trails. US private companies are now developing small –satellites and aspiring to send their constellations into space are severely constrained by limited launch facilities. These companies interested in sending small payloads can ill afford the launching services of a full US launch vehicle. Initially Falcon1, developed by Space X meant for launching small satellites catered to the needs of these private companies. In 2009 Space X moved into bigger satellite–segment with Falcon 9 vehicle leaving a critical gap in the small-satellite launch market. Small satellite companies are on a hunt for reliable cost-effective small satellite launch provider and PSLV effectively meets these requirements. Hence, despite the bans, small satellite companies in US look forward to ISRO’s launching services. The Global Space economy is growing at a tremendous rate with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2005 to 2014. While India is better positioned to meet the growing requirements of the private small-satellite companies, it is high time India evolves a robust national space policy to have a better edge in the global market. It is pertinent that India also set goals and milestones underlining India’s larger aspirations for the near future say by 2020 or 2030. To fortify the rapid strides Indian Space program must promote innovation and entrepreneurship, enact space legislations, establish think-tanks and buttress industry and academia linkups. 

 

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