NDA@2: Comprehensive Analysis of Modi's Foreign Policy

The NDA government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed charge on 26^th May 2014. Unlike previous regimes, Modi was voted to power with a thumping majority and proportionately the level of expectations were unrealistically high. Hence all the arenas of regimes are meticulously scrutinized and critiqued. On successful completion of two years of governance, a comprehensive analysis of the foreign policy, actively pursued by Modi would be a great measure to assess ambitious vision enunciated. Interestingly, unlike his predecessors Modi displayed a rare vivacity and acumen to project India as a leading power on the global platform. Besides, deftly reshaping the contours of Indian foreign policy in line with the classical diplomacy that deal with war, peace, agreements, dispute resolution, sharing of resources, trade and security, he deployed a new genre of diplomacy- diplomacy for development. Modi envisioned that sustainable socio-economic development can be attained by nurturing ties with reliable external partners.

Barring the few initial years as a fledgling independent nation, India rarely exuded a zeal to inspire, re-shape or create a niche for itself among the coterie of World nations. Despite its vast size, demography, strategic geographical location for decades India preferred to maintain a low profile. Post-independence India actively advocated Non-Aligned Policy and consistently upheld its stand.  Preoccupied by territorial disputes and internecine wars with the belligerent neighbors India hardly evinced interest in global issues. The shambolic state of economy, fall of Soviet Union forced India to recalibrate foreign policy. With Indian economy showing signs of revival post 1990 economic reforms, its relative international heft began to increase. During the laggard phase of Hindu growth rate Indian economic orientation was inward looking. Economy was largely self-reliant and hence India’s dependence on external world was limited. Currently Indian economy is seventh largest and third biggest in terms of PPP. Steadily India’s interdependence on the global markets has increased and now it can hardly afford to remain evasive about global issues. While an increasingly assertive China is making the Asian countries and the US nervous, the democratic rise of India is highly welcomed. Regional geo-politics demand India to play a stronger role. While nations are still battling to recover from the effects of economic crisis of 2008. India has comfortably managed the situation and became fastest growing economy.  As nations are rallying together and entering into pacts for global economic revival, India can no longer stay away from the regional economic integration. Above all, in order to accelerate economic development and improve national security regime, it is incumbent on India to foster good relations with regional and international partners. Aptly so, Modi envisions to transform India into a leading power.

Trouncing the apprehensions of critics who were highly skeptical of Modi’s diplomatic acumen, he significantly expanded the “political, economic and security outreach of Indian diplomacy”. In the past two years, Modi made forty one foreign trips which included two visits to Russia, France, Nepal and Singapore and three visits to US. The ambitious foreign policy goals of NDA regime can be summarized into three major policy initiatives- Act East, Neighborhood First and Look West. Other visionary foreign policy goals include- Indian Ocean Outreach, Project Mausam and Cooperation with Pacific Islands. Being a strong advocate of federalism, Modi government introduced an innovative concept of Para Diplomacy where states and cities can forge relations with countries and federal states. The catch phrase of Modi foreign policy is fast-track diplomacy. Upon the completion of fist 100 days of governance, Ministry of External Affairs released a booklet titled “Fast Track Diplomacy” highlighting its achievements and emphasized on three forces-proactive, strong and sensitive.

Modi made a head start with an out of the box thinking and placed India in a vantage position by inviting the leaders of SAARC nations for his swearing-in ceremony. He dazzled in the new role by shaking hands with Nawaz Sharif and sustained the momentum by travelling to the oft visited neighboring countries. Deftly handling India’s security environment inconveniently titled by pugnacious neighbors, Modi met President Xi at the BRICS summit before travelling to Kyoto. At Kyoto, Modi was accorded a grand reception. Building on his proximity with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Modi managed to drive home valuable investments. Extending a warm reception to President Xi Jingping on the banks of Sabarmati River, Modi celebrated his first birthday as a Prime Minister and strategically ameliorated Indo-Chinese relations. President Xi’s visit was marred by incursions by Chinese troops along the LAC. Modi raised apprehensions about the situation whereby both sides agreed to resolve the festering border issue soon. As a goodwill gesture Xi has agreed to open a new route for Indian pilgrims visiting Kailash Mansarovar in Tibet via Nathu La pass in Sikkim. September 2014, witness an unprecedented rise in unprovoked firing along the LoC and Modi regime has ordered troops to retaliate with equal force. This move not only boosted the morale of the forces but sent a tough message across.  After a decade long visa ban on US, Modi visited US and sizzled on the international platform. His speech at the UN General Assembly reiterating the need for evolving a Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) and the perils of the good and bad terrorism was highly appreciated. At the august gathering in recognition of ancient Indian sciences holistic approach to health and well-being, Modi proposed at UN that International Yoga Day be celebrated on June 21^st. Modi’s regime successfully obtained approval of UN member nations and subsequently 195 countries across the globe celebrate Yoga Day now. This marked greatest victory for Modi’s soft diplomacy, an oft used tool in Indian Foreign Policy. He was extended a red carpet welcome, held bilateral talks with President Obama and was bestowed a thunderous reception by Indian Diaspora at Madison Gardens. Madison Garden’s euphoria has become a template for future conventions. Henceforth Modi addressed Indian Diaspora during all his overseas visits to various countries. This precedent of connecting with overseas Indians indirectly strengthened the voices of immigrant Indians settled in foreign lands. China’s growth was believed to be heralded by its diaspora and Modi’s mantra of Diaspora Connect is an attempt to invigorate Diaspora’s spirit of connecting to motherland.

After the thumping success at US, Modi represented India at East Asia Summit, attended G-20 summit in Australia, visited Fiji and travelled to Nepal to attend the SAARC Summit. To regain lost ground in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and to make up for the lost opportunities in its immediate and extended neighborhood Modi visited Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka. Aside fostering and rebuilding relations, Modi rigorously tried to garner support from these countries for India’s membership to extended UNSC. Till now India succumbing to defensiveness shied away from geopolitics. Through clear articulation of foreign policy and strategic interests Modi attempted to reclaim lost ground. Towards the end of first year in office, Modi embarked on a three nation tour to France, Germany and Canada to improve bilateral ties, seek defence cooperation and technology transfer to boost Indian economy. In all the three countries Modi held meeting with the business leaders and actively sought investments. In Germany he inaugurated Hanover Messe Industrial Fair and promoted the Make In India initiative in a big way. Modi’s state visit to China in May 2015 was high on symbolism and business outcomes but low on tangible outcome as China deftly avoided discussions on border issue. In all, during the first year Modi sealed civil nuclear agreement with Canada and Australia for export of Uranium to India and initiated government to government “off the rack” agreement for the purchase of Rafale fighters from France. Considered as major diplomatic triumph President Obama graciously honored Modi’s invitation to be the Chief Guest for the Republic Day Parade. Building bridges of friendship with the US has been a corner stone of Modi’s foreign policy.

Another vital component of Modi’s foreign has been economic diplomacy. Modi linked the developmental goals to diplomacy and strived consistently to seek cooperation with external partners. While previous regimes attempted to establish linkages between developmental goals and diplomacy the determination and fervent articulation was amiss. On the other hand Modi eloquently pursued the developmental goals- Make in India, Digital India, Skill India, Clean India and energetically, organized mega events, campaign rallies to  garner support/ investments and technology transfer. Consequently, India for the first time toppled China as the major foreign investment destination. Moreover, with a synergistic approach of improving economic reforms and emphatic promotion of various initiatives India received a foreign investment of $85 billion so far. Modi’s studied vigor, enthusiasm and passion coupled with active engagement with various countries in part changed World’s perceptions of India.

Modi government’s phenomenal diplomatic pragmatism heralded in the conclusion of the 41 year old Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) with Bangladesh. LBA conclusively provided relief to thousands of people living the conclaves of undemarcated boundaries along the Indo-Bangladesh border. Through peaceful resolution of the border dispute, India claimed a moral victory by winning trust of a neighbor who in turn promised to act on the anti-insurgent groups operating from their territory. Rejuvenated by LBA, Modi steered the long pending BBIN (Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal) connectivity network. Despite India’s historical, cultural and civilization links with CARs which are part of its extended neighborhood, New Delhi grossly failed to expedite the ties for mutual benefit. They are vital for India’s stability, energy security, connectivity, trade and economic linkages. In a bid to boost the 12-point ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy initiated in 2012. Modi visited five Central Asian Republic (CAR)s- Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan referred to as ‘Stans’ to enhance strategic, economic and energy ties. Modi also represented India at the BRICS summit and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) where India’s observer status was elevated to full membership at Ufa in Russia. At Ufa Modi reached out to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif signaling resumption of dialogue following the cancellation of foreign secretary talks in August 2014. The Ufa joint statement outlined the mutually agreed conditions for talks which were initially welcomed by both sides. But Pakistan quickly made a studied U-turn within 24hours and dampened the spirit of dialogue.

Underlining importance of Middle East, Modi paid a standalone visit to UAE in August 2015. Unfortunately, in spite of geographical proximity and strong economic relationship with the Gulf India has significantly failed in fortifying a reliable political engagement. Modi injected germane optimism in Indo-UAE relations, built energy ties, garnered support for the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) and sought investments for infrastructure development and energy exploration. Modi steadily built up friendly ties with the West during his bilateral visits to UK and Ireland. On his second visit to US, Modi met several business leaders to explore innovative ideas that can be implemented in India. Modi participated in the G-20 summit at Turkey held days after the 13/11 Paris attacks where he fervently urged World leaders to adopt an international convention on terrorism and appealed the UN to define the term terrorism. Bolstering the Act East Policy, with a keen focus on trade and strategic cooperation Modi attended the ASEAN-India Summit at Kuala Lumpur. ASEAN countries referred to Tiger Economies are economic forerunners in Asia and deepening relations with them can augur India’s quest for economic progress. Globalization while auguring economic development has hastened the global warming and climate change. Demonstrating its seriousness towards disruptions in climate change India voluntarily announced its intentions to cut emission intensity of its GDP by 20-25% over 2005 levels by 2020. At the COP-21 International Climate Convention India along with hosts France launched International Solar Alliance (ISA) to boost solar energy production in developing countries. In a display of exemplary leadership, roping in 120 countries across the globe, India demonstrated seriousness towards containing the emission intensity.

India has been a traditional ally of Soviet Union and both countries enjoyed exceptional camaraderie. But India’s marked economic surge, levitation towards the US and geopolitical prominence culminated in decline of Russia’s share in India’s defence trade. Defying the claims of any mild fractures in Indo-Russian relations, Modi hosted President Valdimir Putin in December 2014, adopted a joint statement “Druzhba-Dosti”: A vision for strengthening Indian-Russian Partnership over the next decade. Besides, Modi met Putin along the margins of SCO at Ufa in Russia and then reciprocated with a bilateral in December 2015. In continuation of India’s legacy of enhanced defence cooperation Modi purchased of S-400 Triumf Air Defence Missile Technology worth $10 billion, capable of destroying incoming aircrafts, drones and missiles within a range of 400km. While returning from Moscow, Modi visited Afghanistan and inaugurated new Parliament complex constructed by India at Kabul and addressed Parliament. Before returning to India, Modi surprised strategists by briefly stopping over in Lahore on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s birthday.

Modi’s foreign policy towards Pakistan was flayed by Indo-Pakistan observers who deeply lamented the quirky flip-flops, sudden U-turns and changing goal posts. After both sides failed to reach consensus over Ufa agenda, India and Pakistan halted the NSA level talks. To put an end to the stalemate, NSA’s of both countries along with foreign secretaries met silently. This was followed by Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Islamabad to attend the Heart of Asia who announced resumption of comprehensive bilateral dialogue. To sustain the momentum and good will generated, Modi paid an impromptu visit to Lahore. But Pakistan reciprocated India’s peace message with an attack on Pathankot air base. Investigation reports claims involvement of JeM. Though Modi demanded a time bound action from Islamabad, having mastered the art of subterfuge and treachery Pakistan botched up the issue with erroneous media reports. Alternatively, Pakistan requested India to allow its Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the attack. India permitted JIT comprising an ISI officer to conduct investigation provided Pakistan reciprocated. JIT after visiting the site reported that India staged the attack and accused India of vicious propaganda. Pakistan now backtracks on the prospect of Indian team visiting Pakistan to unearth terror connections. Besides India also lost its plot when China scuppered India’s attempt to indict the Pathankot mastermind Masood Azhar at the UN. India tried to retaliate by allowing the Chinese dissidents to visit Dharmasala for a conference. India buckled under pressure and cancelled visa to Uighur leader Dolkun Isa. New Delhi also denied entry of Hong Kong democratic leaders to India. In a more recent development, India even refrained to send its MP’s to the swearing-in ceremony of the Taiwan Women President Tsai Ing-Wen who challenged the Chinese hegemony. While Modi’s expansive diplomatic engagement has infused new confidence in India’s future, fumbling, incoherence and stumbling in dealing with bellicose neighbors calls for urgent reassessment of foreign policy stratagem. Nepal’s relentless blame game accusing India of the domestic crisis despite all the help demands a serious rejig of India’s policy towards its immediate neighbor.

Above all, the high octane diplomacy of Modi to various countries and especially to nations of great geo-strategic importance like Saudi Arabia and Iran have indeed made a difference. The high-level strategic engagement with US and gradual up gradation of the bilateral relations began to bear fruit. Comprehending the need for India’s inevitable engagement with the Asian realm, Modi regime organized a massive flagship conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics, Raisina Dialogue. In August 2015 India hosted the second Forum for Indo-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) under the extended Act East Policy and organized the third Indo-African Forum Summit (IAFS) last year October extending invitation to all the 54 African countries. NDA government’s proactive engagement with various traditional partners promises to offer plausible solutions for global challenges like economic stagnation, flaring endemic conflicts, mass destruction and international terrorism too. Culminating New Delhi’s pragmatic engagement with Washington, US House of Representatives approved a bill to elevate defence ties with India bringing it at par with NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies. But in any case, two years in fact is very short time to pass any judgments.  Certainly, India has definitely found its ground on international arena. But Modi has to learn lessons from the debacles and should attempt to build consensus on foreign policy to audaciously launch India on global platform. 

 

@ Copyrights reserved.