Wickremesinghe's Visit to India: Thrust on Connectivity and Economic Integration

Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe arrived in New Delhi for a short visit on July 20^th a year after taking charge as the President. After former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa unceremoniously quit the post, in the face of protests in cash-strapped Sri Lanka, Wickremesinghe was elected as President by the Sri Lankan Parliament. Traditionally, India has been the first port of call for Sri Lankan leaders who over the past three decades visited New Delhi within a month of taking office. By that measure, Wickremesinghe’s visit is rather too delayed. But given the extraordinary circumstances under which Wickremesinghe took over, the focus has been on the stabilization of the economy.

Though Wickremesinghe had visited India several times in various positions, this is his first visit as President of Sri Lanka to India. In New Delhi, Wickremesinghe hit the ground running with constructive engagements with EAM Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval ahead of his crucial meeting with PM Modi. The visit devoid of the usual pomp and ceremony, commemorated the 75 years of the establishment of diplomatic ties between both countries. Wickremesinghe expressed deep gratitude to India for her, “timely, unprecedented and crucial support” during the recent crisis during his talks with President Droupadi Murmu.

When Sri Lanka was going through the throes of the worst economic crisis, India rushed every possible help and assistance- right from fuel, food, medicines, and other essential supplies. Even as Sri Lanka’s friends looked the other way, India extended assistance to the tune of $4 billion. Without any political or strategic expectations, upholding the “Neighbourhood First” in word and spirit, India stood by Sri Lanka in its dire straits. India lobbied for the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Extended Fund Facility of $3 billion for Sri Lanka and co-chaired a creditor’s platform to carve a foreign debt restructuring plan. By extending assistance without any conditionality and by ensuring that it doesn’t add to Sri Lanka’s debt burden, India has positioned herself as a responsible regional power.

Unveiling the “Promoting Connectivity, Catalysing Prosperity: India-Sri Lanka economic partnership vision”¹ a comprehensive joint vision document centered on connectivity, both leaders charted a course for strengthening- maritime, air, land, energy, financial and digital connectivity and people to people ties. Reinforcing the need to integrate both countries through a robust connectivity network, countries announced to resume passenger ferry services between Nagapattinam in India and Kanakasenthurai in Sri Lanka and between Rameshwaram and Talaimannar. The connectivity agenda includes the development of ports and logistics infrastructure at Colombo, Trincomalee, and Kankesanthurai. Underlining the cardinal importance of strengthening connectivity, Wickremesinghe has proposed the idea of a Land Bridge for economic prosperity and regional cohesion.

Boosting air connectivity, plans are afoot to encourage, and strengthen investment in aviation and augment air infrastructure facilities at Palaly, Jaffna International Airport. Besides, resuming flights between Chennai and Jaffna, countries are exploring ramping up connectivity between Chennai and Batticaloa, Trincomalee. India intends to develop Trincomalee, home to Tamilians as a national and regional hub of industry, energy, and economic activity. The ongoing cooperation on Trincomalee Tank Farms is an effort in that direction.

Sri Lanka has set a target of meeting 70% of power requirements through renewable sources by 2030. To enable this, both countries have embarked on a two-pronged approach. Firstly, to deepen cooperation in the wind and solar segments, and secondly, the establishment of a high-capacity power grid for bidirectional power trade between both countries and other BBIN countries. Over a period of time, this can generate a dependable source of foreign exchange for Sri Lanka².

For reliable energy security, both countries are cooperating on the construction of a petroleum pipeline from the Southern part of India to Sri Lanka and agreed to undertake joint exploration and production of hydrocarbons in Sri Lanka’s offshore basins. To increase the renewable energy mix, countries are expediting Sampur Solar power project, cooperation in green hydrogen, green ammonia through innovative technologies.

While a semblance of stability has returned, the arduous conditions of the $ 3 billion IMF loan have mandated Sri Lankan government to tackle corruption, enhance accountability, increase taxes, and reduce subsidies. As per the IMF terms, the country is obligated to adhere to fiscal tightening measures which include lowering the tax threshold since Sri Lanka has the lowest tax-GDP ratio, and a massive cut in government spending on social schemes. These measures are bound to elicit popular backlash. Wickremesinghe who lacks the popular mandate is acutely aware of these challenges. His visit to India is an attempt to ensure Indian support for hastening Sri Lanka’s recovery through economic integration.

Betting on strong economic cooperation with India to catalyse Sri Lankan economy, Wickremesinghe has advocated discussions on the Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) to facilitate investments and trade in priority areas. As opposed to Sri Lanka’s dillydallying on the MoU signed in 2017 on Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), Wickremesinghe is pushing for talks on ETCA.

Ahead of his India visit, addressing the Indian CEO Forum, underscoring the rapid growth of India under the leadership of PM Modi, Wickremesinghe announced, “It makes no difference to us if India (Indian Rupee) becomes common currency. We will have to figure out how to go about it”³. Accordingly, countries have signed an MoU to operationalise UPI-based digital payments and designate the Indian rupee as currency for trade settlements. Inspired by India’s rapid digitalisation which has transformed governance and provided services, countries are now seeking to adopt it.  In fact, Sri Lanka’s ongoing Unique Digital Identity Project is implemented with India’s assistance.

The IMF Blue Print for the sustainable and equitable development of Sri Lanka has made 10 critical recommendations including restructuring State-owned enterprises (SEO)⁴. Pursuing investment from India in the divestment of Sri Lankan SEOs, Colombo affirmed to promote ease of doing business and fair treatment of each other’s investors. A major challenge in working with Sri Lanka has been the continuity of policies and implementation of agreements. In 2021, Gotabaya’s regime cancelled East Container Terminal (ECT) development with India and Japan with Adani as the investor amid protests against the privatisation of the port. “Fair Treatment” insulates from such political uncertainties.

India is the largest source of inbound tourism to Sri Lanka. To expedite the recovery of the crisis-hit island economy at the 67^th Annual Convention of the Travel Agents Association of India (TAAI), Wickremesinghe proposed making the entire BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) area one borderless tourism region. BIMSTEC includes- India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand.

Despite a multi-dimensional agenda for cooperation, suspicions, and skepticism continue to beset the bilateral ties. Commemorating the 200 years of the arrival of Tamils in Sri Lanka, India has raised the issue of devolution of power. Modi asked Sri Lanka to grant provincial autonomy, implement the 13^th amendment, and facilitate a reconciliation process similar to South Africa for Tamils. India has announced a multisectoral development package to support the economic development of the eastern province exclusively centered on Indian-origin Tamil community. Leaders even exchanged views on the arrest of fishermen over illegal poaching by both countries, the most common irritant.

Countries have exchanged a Joint Declaration of Intent on Animal Husbandry and Dairying; four MoUs on cooperation in renewable energy, economic development projects in Trincomalee, acceptance of UPI payments, and energy permit for the Sampur Solar power project⁴. Assuring India’s support and the conviction to consolidate the millennia-old friendship Modi said, “Being a close friend, as always, we stand shoulder to shoulder with the people of Sri Lanka”⁵. 

But the China factor continues to loom large over the India-Sri Lanka relations which have come under strain after Sri Lanka permitted a Chinese nuclear submarine to dock at Colombo in 2014. When the Sri Lankan economy went into a tail-spin and India bailed it out. Notwithstanding India’s help, Colombo allowed the Chinese surveillance ship Yuan Wang-5 to dock at Hambantota. This came days after India gifted a Dornier Maritime aircraft to Sri Lanka. Since the turn of the century, Sri Lanka especially under Rajapaksas has prioritised friendship with China. Though President Maitripala Sirisena had a pro-India approach and underlined to remain neutral China had its way due to its political and economic leverage over Colombo.

Clarifying Sri Lanka’s position over perceived security threats to India, last month, Wickremesinghe, in an interview with French24, media reiterated, “we are a neutral country, but we emphasise the fact that we can’t allow Sri Lanka to be used as a base for any threats against India”⁶. Modi even subtly reminded, “we believe that the security interests and development of India and Sri Lanka are intertwined” and it is necessary to work together keeping in mind each other’s “security interests” and “sensitivities”.

Despite China’s lackadaisical approach during the economic crisis, Sri Lanka continues to juggle ties with New Delhi and Beijing. Wickremesinghe is scheduled for a Beijing visit in October to forge “high-quality belt and road cooperation”. The long-term deliverance of the shared vision of development and sustainable economic growth invariably rests on the fulcrum of trust and confidence. Beijing continues to wield enormous influence through its investments Through deep economic cooperation, India can limit Sri Lanka’s dependence on China.

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Geoeconomic Realities Boost India-UAE ties

Prime Minister Modi singularly deserves the credit for transforming India’s relationship with the Middle East. Since his first visit to the UAE in 2015 after a gap of 34 years by an Indian Prime Minister to his latest official visit to Abu Dhabi on July 15^th while returning from France, India’s engagement with the country grew phenomenally.  PM Modi was received by Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahyan signifying the importance UAE attaches to India. Indeed, on PM Modi’s landmark visit in 2015, UAE announced its decision to allot land for the construction of a temple in Abu Dhabi.

Cognizant of the realignment underway in the region and focused efforts of the countries in the middle east to diversify their diplomatic engagement, Modi made a quick stop over at Abu Dhabi. Amid the decline of the US influence in the region and Beijing’s concomitant attempts to expand its economic and diplomatic footprint, New Delhi is also stepping up its overreach with the region. India has huge stakes in the region due to her diaspora, energy reliance, trade, and investments. Of the 9 million people in GCC countries, 3.5 million Indians are in UAE forming the most important and strongest pillar of the India-UAE relationship.

India’s extensive overreach and engagement peaked in the last 8 years of the Modi government’s tenure and rejuvenated the ties. In 2017, both countries elevated the ties to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership when the Crown Prince of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, in short MBZ, graced the Republic Day Celebrations when the UAE army contingent marched along with Indian troops. The frequent exchange of high-level visits has energised the ties which are tremendously progressing on all fronts. Further cementing these ties, brushing aside the protestations from Pakistan, UAE extended the rare honour of inviting the then Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj to address the Foreign Ministers meeting of OIC (Organisation of Islamic Countries) states in March 2019.

UAE is the third largest trade partner of India registering bilateral trade of $85 billion as of 2022-23. It is the fourth largest investment partner of India and the first foreign country to invest in Jammu & Kashmir. In March 2023, Dubai’s Emaar announced $60 million shopping and office complex in Srinagar. To reinforce investments between the two countries Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) is planning to set up an office in Gujarat International Finance-Tech City (GIFT) City.

India is the first country UAE has signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) which came into force in May 2022. Since then, there has been a 15% increase in the trade and inching close to the set target of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2025. CEPA has a unique record of being concluded in the shortest time frame. Buoyed by this success, UAE ratified with Israel subsequently.  

In addition to deepening economic cooperation, India and UAE are now collaborating in the plurilateral format, I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and the US) and India-France-UAE trilateral relationship. The trilateral dialogue has agreed on a framework of cooperation in defence, environment, energy and people-to-people ties. Forging maritime cooperation, India, France and UAE held maiden joint exercises in the Gulf of Oman last month. Another mini-lateral with a focus on connectivity and infrastructure recently took off when the NSAs of India, the US, UAE and Saudi Arabia met in Riyadh.

With an emphasis on food security, UAE has announced an investment of $2 billion to develop a series of “food banks” under the I2U2 pivoted on the pillars of economic and technological cooperation. While India caters for food security, UAE is a vital partner for India’s energy security. UAE’s ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) is part of SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves)¹.

As part of energy cooperation countries agreed to increase investment in the SPR program and extend it to green hydrogen, solar energy, and grid connectivity.  Countries have agreed to strengthen maritime cooperation, and connectivity, and enhance defence exchanges, training, and capacity building.  and health sector cooperation bilaterally and with third countries².

Post Article-370 abrogation, when Pakistan urged OIC to up the ante against India, UAE categorically stated that Kashmir is India’s internal issue. UAE backs India’s Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) and together during Modi’s current visit sent a strong and indirect message to Pakistan on harnessing terrorism. Leaders emphasised the importance of promoting peace, moderation, coexistence and tolerance and called for renouncing all forms of extremism, hate speech, discrimination and incitement.

Both countries are currently playing significant global roles with India’s G20 Presidency and UAE’s COP28 prominently promoting the Global South interests. India hosted the Voice of Global South Summit while UAE through COP 28, “COP in Action” is emphasising on impact of climate change on developing countries that constitute the vast majority of Global South. Indeed, India is setting the tone for CoP28 through G20 ministerial meetings. UAE is a special guest at G20 meetings. PM Modi reiterated a personal invite to MBZ to attend the G20 leaders summit in September.

Leaders have issued a joint statement on Climate Change highlighting the importance of Global Stocktake (GST) and the indispensability of developing a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). They called upon the developed countries to fulfil the $100 billion delivery plan to finance the climate adaptation plans of the developing countries. India extended its support to UAE for the successful conclusion of COP28³. PM Modi met Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, President designation of CoP28, and Group CEO of ADNOC and highlighted India’s climate change initiatives- Coalition of Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), International Year of Millets, and Mission LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment).

Leaders oversaw the signing of three MoUs including those on establishment of a framework to promote the use of local currencies, interlinking payment and messaging systems and to start a campus of IIT Delhi at Abu Dhabi. This will be the second IIT campus abroad after the latest one in Tanzania.

In a huge fillip to trade in local currencies, India’s RBI has signed an MoU with the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates to lay down a framework called the ‘Local Currency Settlement System’. This is an attempt to move away from the dollar.  But these isolated arrangements which can hardly dent the dollar unless adopted by a huge block can’t be summarily termed as de-dollarization. Hence the US shouldn’t be wary of this development. By and large, the pursuit is in its infancy given India’s trade making up for a mere 2% of the global economy.

Substituting the use of the dollar with local currency, India is slowly advancing the UPI or RuPay or Rupee Switch and preparing the ground for internationalising Rupee. As of now, 18 countries obtained RBI’s nod to trade in the Indian rupee which includes- Botswana, Fiji, Germany, Guyana, Israel, Kenya, Malaysia, Mauritius, Myanmar, New Zealand, Oman, Russia, Seychelles, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Uganda, and the UK⁴. France and UAE have accepted rupee-denoted trade, UPI and RuPay. India has just initiated talks with Indonesia on UPI payments.

NRI from 10 countries- Australia, Canada, Oman, Qatar, UAE, US, UK, Singapore, Hongkong and Saudi Arabia can receive or send money in Indian rupees and make payments using UPI with their international numbers⁵. All these point to India’s attempts to make the Indian rupee internationally tradable.

Dirham became the unofficial dollar for Indian oil dealers to trade with Russia in the wake of Western sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine conflict. RBI’s new arrangement of payment will make the trade simpler. Dirham emerged as an alternative to the Rupee trade with Russia. After Switzerland joined the sanctions regime against Russia, the global trading ecosystem was forced to shift to a neutral place for an uninterrupted oil flow.

Consequently, Dubai's free zone has emerged as the new hub for Russian oil trading. Russian oil traders started registering with Dubai Multi Commodities Market becoming the new centre for Russian oil trading. Additionally, the absence of personal tax favourably disposed Russian traders to Dubai. Encapsulating this new geoeconomic shift, the Financial Times column, “Dubai is the new Geneva”⁶ highlighted the rising prominence of UAE, which is now a major trading location for gems, gold, diamonds, and agricultural commodities like tea and coffee. UAE’s banking services, modern infrastructure and business-friendly regulations are turning it into a vibrant trading hotspot for global merchants.

The Western sanctions are designed in a way to prevent complete supply disruptions of oil within an inbuilt caveat of fixing a price cap on Russian oil which ensured reduced oil revenues to Moscow. Trading Russian oil from UAE is not illegal. Russian trade dealers are hiring non-Western shipping and insurance agencies to escape sanction threats. Endowed with modern and largest storage facilities Dubai free zones are well-positioned to become the most thriving global trading hub even after the Russian oil boom wanes. India hasn’t clearly lost sight of UAE’s burgeoning rise as a trading hub. As India continues its economic and political ascent a convergence of cooperation with India can be mutually beneficial.

Ostensibly, the framework of trading the local economies can over a period of time be a real game-changer. Moreover, the strategic convergences over maritime security and the commitment to promote peace, stability and prosperity can strengthen the partnership. The Middle East once dominated by the US is witnessing major realignment with countries seeking new partners to diversify their relations. Dispelling diplomatic inertia, India is constantly renewing its ties with partners and widening the gamut of cooperation. India’s exemplary outreach to the Middle East is a case in point for New Delhi’s evolving foreign policy.

Strategic Independence and Multipolarity, Steer India-France Strategic Partnership

Marking 25 years of diplomatic relations between India and France, President Emmanuel Macron has invited Prime Minister Modi as a special guest for the Bastille Day Celebrations. Unlike India’s Republic Day Celebrations where prominent dignitaries are invited annually, France does it occasionally. Prior to Modi, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was the guest of honour in 2018 and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh graced the Bastille Day parade in 2009.

For the first time, the 269-strong tri-service Indian contingent marched on the Bastille Day parade to the tune of “Sare Jahan Se Accha” along with the flypast by three Indian Rafales. This march is a reminder of long-denied, India’s consequential contribution to European security. Over 3.5 million Indian men fought in both world wars.

Coming in the aftermath of a landmark State Visit to the US, the conferment of the ‘Grand Cross of the Legion of the Order’ by Macron on PM Modi underscored the rising stature of India in the global milieu. PM Modi is the first Indian to receive such an honour after India attained independence. The bilateral diplomatic ties established in 1947, were elevated to a strategic partnership in 1998 by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and French President Jacques Chirac at politically uncertain times.  At the heart of the strong bilateral ties is robust complementarity which stems from the strategic autonomy in foreign policy and advocacy of multipolarity.

Resonating with the idea of a collaborative approach, India and France on the eve of PM Modi’s visit to Paris, have charted a course for the next 25 years. This long-term ambitious roadmap which signifies a centenary of diplomatic ties and 50 years of strategic partnership is in tune with India’s unflinching “Amrit Kaal” aspirations of attaining self-reliance, especially in the field of defence production and manufacturing. Through a collaborative approach, India and France envisioned setting new benchmarks and productive outcomes and adopted a Joint Statement -“Horizon 2047 Roadmap on the 25^th Anniversary of the Indo-French Strategic Partnership: Towards a Century of India-French Relations”¹.

Terming the relations with France as the most closet and trusted, for the first time India has chalked out Horizon 2047 Roadmap. Broadly laid out under three categories of Partnership for Security and Sovereignty, Partnership for Planet, and Partnership for People to People ties, the elaborate document nearly encompasses multiple facets of cooperation in various areas between the two countries.

Under the arena of security, India has acknowledged France for helping her pursuit of self-reliance in terms of indigenous defence production. In addition to the existing collaboration in defence, countries have committed to cooperating in the co-development and co-production of advanced defence technologies for the benefit of third countries. The draft discussed the development of combat aircraft engines and industrial cooperation over heavy lift helicopters under the Indian Multi-Role Helicopter (IMRH) program whereby HAL and Safran have concluded the Shareholders’ agreement. Hailing the success of the first Scorpene submarine construction Kalvari under the P75 program, as part of Make in India program, both countries mulled collaboration on other ambitious projects.

With a history of defence industrial partnership, India and France concluded a contract for the transfer of technology on forging and castings for the Shakti Engine and India’s Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineering Ltd (GRSE) and Naval Group of France. Both countries are now working towards adopting a Roadmap on Defence Industrial Cooperation¹. Given the uptick in defence industrial collaborations, India is setting up DRDO Technical Office in Paris.

India and France have a comprehensive defence relationship that not only focuses on building the defence ecosystem but also on full-range military exercises as well. To boost the security aspect, India and France are now exploring trilateral cooperation with like-minded countries. To this end, both countries launched a ministerial-level security dialogue with Australia in 2020 and recently with UAE in February 2023. a strategic partner of both countries.

Trilateral cooperation is now evolving as a key pillar of cooperation with both countries setting up an Indo-Pacific Triangular Cooperation (IPTDC) for third countries of the Indo-Pacific region. The fund aims to support climate, green technologies, renewable energy, sustainable development solutions SDG-focused innovations and startups. India and France are planning to work together with third countries in building Digital Public Infrastructures.

What clearly sets, Indo-French bilateral relations apart from others is exceptional warmth, friendship and genuineness. Horizon 2047 which is premised on the “framework of a partnership between equals in consonance with their respective sovereign and strategic interests” ostensibly mirrors mutual trust and confidence in this enduring strategic partnership.

Putting Space at the heart of strategic partnership countries have launched the Strategic Space Dialogue in June 2023. Besides boosting the existing partnership, between ISRO and French Space Agency CNES, the dialogue will augur well for new missions and collaborations on the anvil which include the development of TRISHNA Mission by 2024 (Thermal Infrared Imaging Satellite for High-resolution Natural Assessment), space-based maritime domain awareness and the collaboration between NSIL (New Space India Limited) and Ariane Space.

Counterterrorism is another arena where the interests of both align. India hosted the third edition of No Money for Terror (NMFT) meeting, a French government initiative in New Delhi in December 2022 to combat terrorism. Firmly advocating reforms of UNSC and revival of multilateralism, France backed the credentials of G4 and representation from Africa for permanent membership.

Both countries pursue and promote active cooperation in advanced digital technologies, Artificial Intelligence, Startups, science and technology, digital public infrastructure, cybersecurity, public health and medical cooperation, supercomputing, 5G/6G telecom, digital skill development. France deeply values India as a partner for global leadership in the digital domain and its capabilities in building Digital Public Infrastructures (DPIs). Countries are fostering DPIs through InFrastructures (India France Structures) and InFinity (India France Innovation in Information Technology) platforms.

To usher the people of both countries into Digital Century, France has executed an agreement to implement UPI (Unified Payment Interface) becoming the first country in Europe to accept UPI from September 2023.

To jointly address the triple crises of Climate Change, loss of diversity and pollution, India and France have evolved a road map on green hydrogen or decarbonated hydrogen, committed to eliminating the use of single-use plastics and supported the adoption of the Treaty on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biodiversity in Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ).  To strengthen energy security and to meet climate objectives, India and France are working together on low and medium-power modular reactors of Small Modular Reactors (SMR) and Advanced Modular Reactors.

Underscoring the importance of people-to-people relations for a robust partnership, India and France inked Mobility and Migration in 2021. To promote cross-border mobility, besides linguistic cooperation, countries have agreed to work towards mutual recognition of diplomas and professional qualifications and pledged Euro 1 million in scholarships. France will now issue a five-year validity Schengen visa for Indians with Master’s Degrees from French Universities and exemption of visas on official passports by 2026. India has announced to open Consulate General in Marseilles while France will open Bureau de France in Hyderabad.

In all, the bilateral engagement yielded 63 outcomes which included 5 MoUs on Ocean technology, digital technologies, civil aviation, trade investments, and maritime domain awareness; 4 LoIs (Letter of Intent) for cooperation in the fields of museum and heritage, radio transmission, cooperation in health and medicine, commercial launch services; two joint declarations between ISRO and CNES on development in the field of launchers, cooperation in space. Countries signed an agreement on the evaluation of software and energy security². Bilateral talks yielded three Joint Press releases- Horizon 2047 Indo-France Strategic partnership, Indo-Pacific cooperation, Eliminating Single Use of Plastic Pollution pursuant to the UN Environment Agenda 5.2 resolution.

For an operational engagement in the Indo-Pacific which is an area of concern to both countries, India and France launched an Indo-Pacific cooperation roadmap which is in alignment with PM Modi’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and Macron’s vision of security and cooperation. Supporting India’s willingness to join Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), countries have agreed to strengthen security coordination through Information Fusion Centre- Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) in India, European Maritime Awareness in Straits of Hormuz (EMASoH) in UAE and Atalanta, Regional Coordination Operational Centre in Seychelles, Regional Maritime Information Fusion Centre in Madagascar and Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships (ReCAAP) in Singapore³.

Having launched International Solar Alliance, India and France are now committed to working on harnessing renewable energies, creating an ecosystem for sustainable development of maritime resources, preservation of biodiversity, and Illegal Unreported Unregulated (IUU) fishing, promoting startups in Indo-Pacific region and mangrove conservation initiatives in the Pacific States in particular.

The Pacific States are vulnerable to climate change and through an inter-connected and resilient action plan for a sustainable future, the India-France partnership is slowly evolving as a crucial pillar for a peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

The panoply of cooperation agreements and declarations stands as testimony to the relationship that was reformatted when the West condemned India for nuclear testing. Mutual respect for strategic independence and their commitment to global security which resonated with their collective interests is the driving force for this “partnership between equals”.

Despite its commonalities with the West, France is falling out with the US over Macron’s renewed call for strategic autonomy. On the contrary, the India-France partnership is shaped by strategic convergences over independent foreign policies, national interests, identities, and security issues.  

The Joint Communique aptly summarizes the same- “ours is a relationship that has been resilient in the darkest storms and bold and ambitious in riding the high ties of opportunities. It is founded on shared values, belief, in sovereignty and strategic autonomy, an unwavering commitment to international law and UN charter, an abiding faith in multilateralism and a common quest for a stable multipolar world”⁴.

France is the second largest defence supplier of India after Russia. With Russia stretching its resources for the Ukraine war, India is exploring avenues to modernise its defence industrial base with France which can decisively boost Comprehensive National Power. In this context, the non-inclusion of the 26 Marine Rafales and three Scorpene submarines in the joint statement has driven speculations.

Putting media conjectures to rest, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra ascertained, “the document looks at security and sovereignty in a more holistic and comprehensive way rather than as a set of individual transactions… “and “the metrics of defence partnership is not defined by a single acquisition or a non-acquisition, single procurement of a single transaction”⁵. Pending commercial negotiations on M Rafales, this deal presumably failed to make it to the final statement.

Modi’s current visit, his fifth to France replete with warmth and bromance full on display which is high on optics is equally rich in substance. Also, there is a very clear understanding and appreciation of each other’s position on the Ukraine issues. In a rare gesture, Macron openly praised Modi at 2022 UNGA session over the “this is not an era of war” remark. Even as Macron’s rejected “decoupling” from Beijing, France’s Indo-Pacific cooperation with India to counter Beijing’s expansionism is firmly in course. Even the discordant EU parliament’s resolution against India on Manipur ahead of Modi’s visit failed to dampen the warmth of the partnership.

Hailing India as “a giant in global history”, Macron acknowledged, the “decisive role” India is set to play in the future⁶. Underlining the significance of 25 years of Strategic Partnership Modi said, “People of India have taken the resolve to make India a developed nation. In this journey, we see France as a natural partner”⁷. Deepening the existing shared interests, the Indo-French partnership of middle powers besides bolstering multipolarity can foster an alternative order. France shares a similar perspective and this was the spirit behind hosting the New Global Financing Pact Summit.

Dwelling on India-French Partnership, PM Modi in his interview with Les Echos said, “It (Partnership) is a strong, trusted, consistent. It has been steady and resilient in the darkest storms. It has been bold and ambitious in looking for opportunities. The level of mutual trust and confidence we share is unmatched. It stems from shared values and vision. We share a strong sense of strategic autonomy. Both have deep commitment to international law. We both seek a multipolar world. Both of us carry and unwavering faith in multilateralism”⁸. Lending a futuristic vision through the roadmap “Horizon 2047”, both countries have set the course. Catapulting the partnership to new heights is firmly rested on the succeeding political leaderships. 

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India’s SCO Presidency Makes a Mark

As a shining testimony to her sure-footed diplomacy that has come of age, India has successfully hosted the 23^rd edition of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) summit in New Delhi virtually days after PM Modi’s landmark State visit to the US. Striking a delicate balance in her diplomatic ties with the US and Russia, India conducted the SCO summit with aplomb.

‘Shanghai Five’ of 1996 initiated by Russia and China along with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan formally evolved into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in 2001. The founding objective of SCO has been regional security, development, and countering of terrorism and extremism with Central Asia as the core.

Wary of America’s unipolar rise, threats of regime change and colour revolution, Russia and China founded SCO after the collapse of the Soviet Union to insulate the Eurasian region and reduce the Western influence. SCO, a non-security grouping not directed against any particular bloc, was largely designed to increase the influence of Russia and China. Bolstering its ambitious connectivity project BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), China ramped up engagement with Central Asian Republics (CARs), the connecting land bridge between Asia and Eurasia. Russia wielded enormous influence over Central Asia, its proverbial backyard, comprising the former Soviet states which began to dwindle following China’s economic rise.

To mitigate China’s influence, Russia favoured India’s membership to SCO while China pulled in Pakistan to counter this attempt. Thus, both India and Pakistan became members of SCO in 2017. Confronted by Pakistan’s blockade denying access to the Central Asian region, India joined SCO to revive ties with Central Asian Republics. India’s economic cooperation with Central Asian Republics took a back seat after the fall of the Soviet Union and this was further exacerbated by Islamabad’s block. Though Indian leadership has accentuated engagement with Central Asia, connectivity still remains a major issue to take the bilateral economic engagement with the region to the next level.

Indeed, the Ukraine war has further heightened the dissensions between Russia and CARs. Maintaining a balanced position while Kazakhstan which didn’t recognise Crimea, refused to condemn Russia and abstained from UN voting, Kazakhstanis are growing wary of Russia. A similar sentiment is gradually building up in the Central Asian region against China with the public becoming increasingly sceptical of Chinese dominance and crackdown of Uighurs. CARs are now seeking to diversify their ties from Russia and China.

Besides, burgeoning China’s economic clout has drastically altered the relations between Russia and China from being equal partners at the turn of the century to Russia playing second fiddle to China post-Ukraine war sanctions. Though Russia’s economic interdependence on China has increased in the wake of the Ukraine war, India’s presence in SCO can counter Beijing’s accentuating dominance in the region. The intergovernmental engagement at SCO thus offers India an opportunity to connect with Central Asia.

Another defining objective of SCO is countering terrorism, extremism and separatism that continues to threaten the stability of Central Asia. To ensure regional security, SCO set up Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) in 2002. Since the Afghan civil war, its territory has been a fertile ground for various terror outfits. Afghanistan is part of SCO and has been a melting point of ethnicities represented in the SCO member states. Of the 150 ethnicities from SCO member states, 30 of them live in Afghanistan. Realising the importance of Afghanistan in curbing terrorism, SCO constituted an Afghanistan Contact Group in 2005.

With the withdrawal of the US troops, the Afghanistan issue has become a regional security and geopolitical problem. With the potential spillover effect of the resurgence of terrorism in Afghanistan, resolving the Afghan issue is crucial for SCO. Through SCO, India can engage with Afghanistan and be part of the larger framework in dealing with the Afghan Taliban.  

A weakened Russia has strengthened Beijing’s resolve of turning SCO into a ‘China club’ paving the way for a unipolar Asian order. To consolidate and expand its influence, China has invited new dialogue partners- Kuwait, Myanmar, UAE, and Maldives in May 2023.  With this, the number of dialogue partners has risen to 13 which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Cambodia, Qatar and Turkey. SCO currently has three observers- Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia and nine permanent members. Uzbekistan was the first member to join the Shanghai Five in 2001, later India and Pakistan became members in 2017. The newest member, Iran officially joined the SCO at the New Delhi summit. SCO is now the largest regional organization covering 60% of Eurasia, 40% of the World population, and 20% of the global GDP with the potential for productive collaboration and lucrative opportunities.

Given India’s unique geographical landscape, robust maritime and continental collaboration is inevitable to emerge as a major player in the region. While New Delhi’s active engagement with the Indo-Pacific countries has consolidated its maritime overland, India’s continental engagement and policy of “connecting to the extended neighborhood” will receive a major boost through SCO. India’s association with SCO shall ensure that Asia remains multipolar. A multipolar world is feasible only through multipolar Asia.

The contradictions galore and the inherent divergences very often embolden the scepticism of the relevance of SCO for India. The key factors in establishing SCO are strengthening mutual confidence and trust, good neighbourly relations, effective cooperation in politics, trade, economy, science and technology, energy, transportation, tourism, and environmental protection; besides making a joint effort to maintain and ensure peace, security and stability in the region and establishment of a new, democratic, just and rational political and economic international order¹. But more often than not most of these aspects that define the spirit of SCO are callously undermined.

The heated borders and relentless threats from across the borders, LoC and LAC have been the constant source of threat for India. The SCO member states of China and Pakistan thus epitomize what is antithetical to the spirit of friendship and cooperation. Indeed, India’s uneasy relationships with Pakistan and China have been ascribed to the virtual summit session of SCO heads of state meeting. But the specious argument fails to overlook the fact that India is going to hold the G20 summit meeting in less than two months’ time from now when India will host all the major World leaders.

The New Delhi Summit was attended by leaders of member states-China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Iran and heads of states of observer states of Tajikistan and Iran, Belarus, Mongolia and Turkmenistan. Other invitees who participated in the summit deliberations included-Secretary General of SCO, director of SCO RATS, UN Secretary General, Heads of CICA (Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia, CSTO ( Collective Security Treaty Organisation), CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and Eurasian Economic Commission.

PM Modi spoke of five pillars of cooperation that India has introduced and nurtured - startup and innovation, traditional medicine, youth empowerment, digital inclusion and shared Buddhist heritage. Modi further elaborated on India’s contributions to SCO.

In line with Article 1 of the SCO charter, Modi unequivocally condemned terrorism in any form and highlighted that terrorism is a threat to global and regional peace. In an oblique reference to Pakistan, Modi said, “some countries use cross-border terrorism as an instrument of their polices and give shelter to terrorists. Hitting out at the iron-clad friendship between China and Pakistan. Modi said “SCO should not hesitate to criticise such countries. SCO countries should condemn it” and added, “There should be no double standards on terrorism”².

The fight against terrorism is the central goal of SCO and to this end, Member States echoed similar sentiments. Leaders also exchanged views on topical, regional and global issues and discussed ways to transform and modernise the organisation. As the outcome of the summit leaders has adopted the New Delhi Declaration and two thematic joint statements- one on countering radicalisation leading to separatism, radicalisation³ and extremism and the second one on cooperation in digital transformation⁴.

PM Modi has invited countries to address regional security issues, counter-terrorism, and connectivity challenges and called for maximum utilization of the Chabahar project. The New Delhi Declaration⁵ highlighted the need for safe, free, and open information space; respect for non-interference in internal affairs; respect for sovereignty; unacceptable unilateral expansion of global missile systems; keeping outer space free of weapons; compliance to chemical weapons treaty, biological weapons convention; early resolution of the situation in Afghanistan. In all, member states reaffirmed their commitment to 10 decisions.

Though an emphatic unanimity on other issues by Member States signaled a rare unity, the abject lack of commitment and China’s way of running roughshod over other countries’ interests in pursuit of its great power ambitions raises valid doubts about the multilateralism of SCO. India opposed the BRI which violates her territorial sovereignty in the joint declaration.

Countries agreed on the implementing roadmap for a gradual increase in the share of national currencies in mutual settlements, SCO anti-drug strategy for 2018-2023, SCO Economic Development Strategy 2030, 2022-24 program of cooperation in countering extremism, separatism and extremism.

PM Modi envisioned a concept for SCO back in 2018, which is adopted as the theme for New Delhi SCO summit meeting- “Towards a SECURE SCO” which stands for S-Security of Citizens, E- Economic Development, C-Connectivity, U-Unity, R-respect for sovereignty and integrity and E-Environment Protection. India has put forth various initiatives and proposals in line with her vision and created new mechanisms-Special Working group on startups and innovation and Expert level working group on traditional medicine.

In tune with the developmental aspirations of the 21^st century, championing inclusive development, India has added new themes of cooperation which include popularising millets for food security. Member states welcomed the admission of Iran as a full member and acknowledged the Memorandum of Obligation signed by Belarus for the SCO membership.

Chairing SCO for the first time, India hosted 134 events, 15 Ministerial level meetings and four head of agency meetings including the high-level interactions between the National Security Advisors, Defence Ministers and Foreign Ministers of member countries. During the time frame of the presidency, India has intensified engagement with member states and proposed five initiatives that were adopted. These include- the promotion and development of digital public infrastructure, combatting climate change, decarbonising the transport infrastructure through cooperation on biofuels, innovative technologies for sustainability and digital financial inclusion.

SCO Film Festival, SCO Culture Showcasing, SCO Tourism Mart, SCO Conference on Traditional Medicine held by India markedly changed the segment of socio-cultural activities of SCO. Indian initiatives and events elicited remarkable appreciation from the SCO Member States which besides forging robust engagement, fostered harmony.

India’s transformative worldview rooted in development in sharp contrast to China’s self-serving strategic initiatives is garnering greater acceptance among member states. President Putin hailed India’s presidency of SCO. Resonating a similar stance, Uzbekistan foreign lauded India for her innovative themes and hallmark vision.

Replete with divergences, and strategic contradictions, SCO is an enigmatic grouping onerous to navigate for India due to the obstinate posturing of China and Pakistan. Disillusioned by the West, countries in the Middle East are showing keen interest in joining SCO. SCO is emerging as a counter to the Western bloc. Hence, setting aside the disagreements and withholding debates on the relevance of SCO for India, New Delhi has chartered a developmental framework for SCO and lent a directionality to it. It is now left for the member states to build, reform and transform it. 

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PM Modi’s Visit Energises India-Egypt Ties

Sustaining the momentum generated by a series of high-level visits to Egypt, PM Modi while returning to India from the US made a two-day stopover in Egypt. The last visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Egypt was in 1997. India has significantly ratcheted up its relations with the Arab countries and the decision of inviting Egypt, UAE and Oman to G20 meetings as India’s guests is a part of this exercise.

Giving a significant boost to India’s Link West Policy, the Modi administration has characteristically accelerated both outreach and engagement with the Middle East Arabian countries. Infusing new enthusiasm in resurrecting the neglected ties, India invited President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi as the Chief Guest for the 2023 Republic Day celebrations. This invitation is the Indian way of honouring special friends. During Sisi’s visit, countries have agreed to elevate the ties to strategic partnership driving the ties towards a multifaceted relationship.

PM Modi’s reciprocal visit to Egypt within six months of President Sisi’s State visit demonstrates New Delhi’s commitment to energise the relationship and expand economic engagement. In a significant show of friendship, the Egyptian Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly who was heading the ‘Indian Unit’ received Modi at the airport where he was accorded guard of honour.  Indian Unit comprising senior officials and seven cabinet ministers was set up following President Sisi’s State visit to India.

PM Modi welcomed the ‘Whole of the Government Approach’ of Egypt in taking forward the bilateral ties with India. After a brief interaction with the Indian Unit, PM Modi held wide-ranging talks with President Sisi and later both leaders signed the Strategic Partnership Agreement. Discussions on strengthening cooperation in trade and investment, renewable energy, pharmaceuticals, counterterrorism cooperation, food and energy security, G20 cooperation dominated the agenda. Both countries have signed three MoUs on agriculture, archaeology and competition law.

Egypt, the most populous Arab country is the gateway to Africa and Europe with immense potential for domestic industries, particularly in the agriculture sector, steel items and light vehicles. Besides its special Arab and African identity, its strategic geographic location with the Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Horn of Africa and Suez Canal lends it a crucial maritime significance, especially in terms of commerce and connectivity.

The volume of Indo-Egyptian bilateral trade is currently $7 billion dollars which kept increasing despite the covid. The leaders have set a target of $12 billion in the next five years¹. Indian FDI is around $4 billion and in the past six months, Indian companies made an additional investment of $170 million. Egypt is keen on having an increased Indian presence in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCEZ). Given SCEZ’s easy access to markets in Africa, Europe and Gulf, Indian companies are pushing for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Egypt. This can also boost India’s export-oriented, “Made by India for the World” programme.

India and Egypt shared the common goal of independence and post-Egypt’s independence in 1953, both countries signed the Friendship agreement in 1955. India extended support to Egypt during the Suez Canal crisis in 1956. Subsequently, as founding members of the Non-Alignment Movement, both countries had cordial relations. Both countries were instrumental in creating the G-77 grouping of non-aligned members to promote the collective economic interests of developing countries during the cold war and initiated “South-South Cooperation”. Over subsequent decades marred by political upheavals the bilateral ties suffered neglect.

Expressing confidence in India’s G20 summit, Egypt urged New Delhi to prioritise the interests of developing countries and raise their issues at the international platforms. India, the leading voice of the Global South reaffirmed working towards addressing the global food and fuel shortages instead of allowing the G20 summit to be mired by the Ukraine issue.

Being the largest importer of Wheat, Egypt’s food security took a hit during the Ukraine crisis following the blockade of exports from Russia and Ukraine. India rose to the occasion and supplied wheat to Egypt. Also, India’s shipment of drugs and medical supplies to 13 African countries including Egypt during the Covid has earned the goodwill of Cairo. This outreach reignited friendship between the two countries.

The back-to-back high-profile visits of the defence minister to sign an MoU on enhancing bilateral defence cooperation in September 2022 and EAM Jaishankar’s extending invitation to Egypt as ‘Guest Country” to the G20 Summit in October 2022 had set the platform for the revival of ties. Talks of defence cooperation with Egypt have been on an upswing with India offering to replace Egypt’s ageing Chinese trainers with LCA Tejas Trainer aircraft. Though the deal couldn’t go through with South Korea offering to locally manufacture TA-50 jets, India has offered Akash Defence System and Pinaka Rocket system to Egypt seeking to diversify its weapon systems.

Egypt which has the largest standing army in the Arab League wants to reduce its dependency on Russia for weapons. It is looking for collaborations with countries possessing expertise in developing substitutes for Russian weapon systems and evaluating options from China and India. India is exploring the opportunity for technological collaboration and transfer of technology².  To boost cooperation between the defence forces, India and Egypt held joint air exercises -Desert Warrior in October 2021 and the maiden joint military training exercise-Exercise Cyclone in the deserts of Rajasthan in January 2023.

Another major aspect where India and Egypt are on the same page is counterterrorism. Arab Spring of 2010 which brought about a rapid transformation in the region witnessed Egypt’s shift towards electoral democracy. However, in the first election of the Arab country in 2012, the Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Morsi emerged victorious. But was unceremoniously ousted in a military coup in 2013. Muslim Brotherhood, the brainchild of a school teacher Hassan Al-Banna in 1928 advocated the most extremist form of political Islam. While Qatar, Kuwait, Iran and Turkey had a cosy relationship with this pan-Islamic network, Saudi Arabia and UAE banned Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt too banned it and designated its affiliates as terrorist groups after Sisi came to power. He even revived ties with Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Laying out Egypt Vision 2030, Sisi unveiled National Human Rights Strategy designed to promote social, economic, political and cultural rights. In a discussion along the sidelines of a session on “Human Rights: Present and Future”, Sisi said, “Groups like the Brotherhood gnawed at the state and created a culture of doubt and mistrust, and he warned against allowing countries to be destroyed from within, creating millions and refugees and generation of extremists, and releasing untold damage on the wider region for decades”. Egypt is consciously moving towards moderation without sacrificing its traditional roots and past civilizational culture.

Egypt is the seat of Islamic learning and its famed Al-Azhar University which churns out Muslim scholars and Ulemas is now working towards countering the radical Islamist ideology. The University has other faculties like Commerce, Science, Engineering and Humanities. India established a Centre of Excellence in IT at this University in 2016⁵. The Grand Mufti is elected by the faculty of Islamic scholars of Al Azhar University.

On his Egypt visit, PM Modi met the Grand Mufti Sheikh Shawki Ibrahim Allam and discussed social harmony, countering extremism and radicalisation. Grand Mufti who was in India last month at the invitation of the Indian Council for Cultural Relations and in an article ahead of his visit he highlighted the “need for cooperation and bridge-building in a challenging world”⁶. PM Modi also visited the 10^thcentury Al-Hakim Mosque of the Fatimid Era reconstructed by Dawoodi Bohra Muslims. The Indian Dawoodi Bohra Muslim community traces their heritage to this mosque. Bohras have been steadfast supporters of Modi since his days as chief minister. Modi also interacted with the Indian Diaspora living in Egypt.

Ironically amid the ambient cacophonous discourse on PM Modi as fascist and intolerant towards minorities, President Sisi has honoured him with the highest civilian award of “Order of the Nile”. Modi is the first Indian to receive this honour. The fallacious anti-India and anti-Modi narratives seem facetious with PM Modi receiving 13 highest civilian awards in the nine of his tenure as the Prime Minister of India.

Modi’s reciprocal visit to Egypt has come at a time when Cairo is diversifying its partnership and lobbying for membership in BRICS. Notwithstanding the economic crisis in Egypt, India is exploring opportunities for potential bilateral economic cooperation through a liberalised trade regime. Countries are in talks to trade through a barter system and India is mulling permitting Egypt to make rupee payments as a possible means of debt. India is also planning to diversify its fertiliser imports and gas from Egypt. Egypt is interested in Indian investments while India seeking to have greater access to the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region through Cairo.

Egypt’s decision to stay away from attending the meeting of the G20 Working Group of Tourism held in Srinagar has generated an awkward discordance. The lingering contentious posturing of Cairo seeded a scepticism too. Apparently, an idealistic expectation of perfect agreement between countries on all issues is nearly impossible. In this era of reorientation of the world era, countries are forging partnerships based on alignment of interests and hedging against big power competition. The double whammy of covid and the Ukraine crisis has pushed countries to reorient their foreign policies and foster ties beneficial for people at large. In his short visit, PM Modi revived the bilateral ties and bestowed directionality to them for the long haul. 

India-US Partnership: Shared Interests Take Precedence

The recently concluded PM Modi’s landmark State visit to the US replete with exuberant warmth can rightly take pride in the incredibly ambitious agenda both countries have set for deepening and widening the India-US partnership. With elections around the corner, while an exuberant display of warmth and accompanying pomp, grandeur, and photo-ops can be dismissed as an attempt to serve domestic constituencies, the Joint Statement from the United States and India is high on substance.

The sheer expanse of cooperation spanning “seas to the stars”¹ had notably, three core aspects – technology partnership, defence cooperation, and clean energy. Reinforcing the commitment to an open, secure, accessible technology ecosystem, countries have launched the iCET (Initiative for Critical and Emerging Technologies). Giving a huge fillip to iCET, in March 2023, countries signed an MoU on Semiconductor Supply Chain and Innovation Partnership ushering investments into India. Micron Technology caught up in the US-Chip wars is all set to invest $825 million in India towards building a semiconductor assembly and testing facility in Sanad, Gujarat. This coupled with Lam Research’s proposal to train 60,000 Indian engineers through its Semiverse Solutions and an announcement by Applied Materials, Inc to invest $400 million to establish a collaborative engineering centre in India will help in building a semiconductor ecosystem in India a hub of innovation teeming with a young and skilled workforce.

Shaping a long-term strategic technology cooperation framework, for greater technology sharing, co-development and co-production opportunities between governments, industry and academic institutions of both countries an interagency- Strategic Trade Dialogue was launched in June 2023. For creating secure and trusted telecommunications, resilient supply chains and enabling global digital inclusion countries have established two Joint Task Forces on advanced telecommunication. These task forces are focused on Open RAN, research and development of 5G/6G technologies led by India’s Bharat 6G Alliance and the US Next G Alliance. As a confidence-building measure, Indian companies are now welcome to participate in the US Rip and Replacement Program.

Working towards a Comprehensive Quantum Information Science and Technology Agreement, countries have unveiled a joint Indo-US Quantum Coordination Mechanism. To facilitate expert and commercial exchanges with like-minded nations, the US welcomed India to participate in the Quantum Entanglement Exchange and Quantum Economic Development Consortium.

Till now India largely relied on France for High-Performance Computing (HPC), especially for weather forecasts. The US has now launched $2 million grant program under US-India Science and Technology Endowment Fund for the joint development of AI, Quantum technologies and HPC facilities in India. Currently, India is the Chair of the Global Partnership on AI and with US support, India can roll out a responsible global AI regime to advance AI education, promote commercial opportunities and mitigate against bias and discrimination.

Furthering the growing cooperation in earth and space science, India has joined US Artemis Accords for space exploration and NASA will now provide advanced training to Indian Astronauts at Johnson Space Centre in Houston in a joint effort to refurbish International Space Station in 2024.

Paving way for the much-awaited defense partnership, GE (General Electric) and HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited) signed MoU for technology transfer to India for the manufacture of GE F-414 engines for LCA (Light Combat Aircraft) MkII LCA. The final agreement entailing 80% of ToT to India is expected to be signed by the end of the financial year. Absent ToT, co-production, co-development in spite of the $25 billion defence agreements between India and the US, the ties failed to advance from the existing buyer-seller relationship.

Biden’s directive to remove regulatory barriers for defence tech sharing with India and the green signal for the purchase of the MQ-9B HALE UAV (High Altitude Low Endurance-Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) from the General Atomics is really a new hallmark. These drones with enhanced ISR (Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance capabilities will be assembled in India. As a part of this plan, General Atomics plans to set up a Global MRO facility in India to help build her indigenous defence capabilities.

Countries are contemplating a Defense Industrial Cooperation Roadmap with a robust policy framework for collaborative research, testing and prototype testing. To this end, countries are commencing negotiations for concluding the Security of Supply arrangement and initiating discussions about Reciprocal Defence Procurement Agreement. To facilitate joint defense innovation and co-production countries have launched India-US Defense Acceleration System (INDUS-X) creating a network of universities, startups, industries and think tanks.

Since the inking of foundation defense agreements, India has emerged as the hub for maintenance and repair of forward-deployed US Navy assets following which the US concluded Master Ship Repair Agreements with Indian shipyards. Indeed, US Department of Defense’s Space Force has signed its first International Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with India start-up 114 AI and 3rdiTech, both of which are going to work with General Atomics to co-develop advanced components. This integration of Indian and American defence industries is going to be a new dawn for India’s efforts to attain self-reliance.

India has a stellar record in discharging climate responsibility obligations. Making sustainability a mass movement, India is roping in many partners in its initiatives which are very well received. As a part of its US-India Strategic Clean Energy Partnership (SCEP), countries have now launched US-India New and Emerging Renewable Energy Technologies Action Platform for accelerated cooperation in green hydrogen, wind energy and other emerging technologies.

Often US investments and its employment generation potential in India garner the headlines. Indian investments worth $40 billion have created 4,25,000 direct jobs in the US¹. During PM Modi’s State visit India’s VSK Energy LLC and India’s JSW Steel USA announced investments of $1.5 billion and $120 million in renewable energy and infrastructure industries. Also, India’s Epsilon Carbon Limited is planning to invest $650 million in US greenfield electric vehicle battery component factory. In fact, India’s historic agreement with Boeing for 200 aircrafts has created over 1 million jobs across 44 US States. 

It is worth noting that Indian companies, part of the US-India CEO forum are upskilling more than 2,50,000 employees and promoting STEM learning in the local communities across the United States. The concept of “Innovation Handshake” under commercial dialogue is now connecting dynamic startup ecosystems of India and US and fostering innovation, job growth in emerging technologies.

To decarbonise the transport sector and develop sustainable aviation fuel, India along with Brazil and the US developed Global Biofuels Alliance which will be launched in July. Nuclear energy plays a significant role in decarbonisation efforts and energy security. To meet growing energy needs, India’s Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) has intensified negotiations with Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) for construction of six nuclear reactors in India.

Critical Mineral Elements are critical for the clean energy transition and to achieve the climate and strategic technology goals. To develop diverse and sustainable global supply chains, US offered India to join the Mineral Security Partnership (MSP). India has reaffirmed support for India’s membership to NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) and IEA (International Energy Agency). Underscoring the need for reforming the multilateral institutions to reflect changing global realities. Countries reaffirmed need Comprehensive Reforms Agenda including increasing the number of permanent and non-permanent members in the UNSC. US reiterated support for India’s UNSC permanent membership.

Pledging to render humanitarian assistance, India concurred with the US on the need for the reconstruction of Ukraine and called for the need for respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty, the contemporary global order built on UN charter and international law. Refraining to condemn Russia, India reiterated that this is not an era of war but of diplomacy and dialogue.

Recommitting to the free, open, inclusive Indo-Pacific, reaffirmed empowering the Quad for peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific. India invited the US to join the Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative and the US welcomed India as an observer in the Partners in the Blue Pacific. Countries shared their concerns over the deteriorating situation in Myanmar, denuclearisation of Korean Peninsula, and a stable, representative and inclusive government in Afghanistan.

Without naming China, leaders of both countries expressed concerns over the coercive actions and unilateral attempts seeking to alter the status by force, they strongly condemned Pakistan for the cross-border terrorism, and use of terrorist proxies and called for immediate action to ensure that their territory is not used as a launch pad by terrorists.

In addition to the above, India and US have agreed to resolve six outstanding WTO disputes and establish US-India Global Challenge Institutes to ignite deeper research partnerships. Plans are afoot to explore a US-India Global Digital Development Partnership for developing and deploying Digital Public Infrastructure (DPIs) in developing countries, launch the India Ocean Dialogue, hold US-India Cancer Dialogue, and conclude the Cultural Property Agreement to prevent illegal trafficking of antiquities.

The $191 billion bilateral trade between India and US in 2022 nearly double from 2014 aligns well with the unique synergy between the two countries. In tune with the demands of changing technologies and advancements, both countries are constantly stepping up their engagement and expanding the facets of cooperation to encompass all sectors.

India-US bilateral ties which have expanded most rapidly in recent years are constantly evolving, reforming, renewing, and advancing the aspirations of both countries.  Anchored and nourished by the strong Indian Diaspora, who have been instrumental in building bridges of friendship both countries have overcome the “hesitations of history”.

The real measure of the partnership will certainly be judged by the outcomes which need sustained efforts and commitment. The 2005 civil nuclear pact was a real pathbreaker that failed to take off despite all the regulatory clearances. Eighteen years hence rising India is well poised to leverage its huge markets and immense growth potential to synergistically partner with advanced countries to catapult itself into a technology-driven economy.  Facing difficulties Chinese companies are now pledging investments in India and in their efforts to decouple, India is a promising bet.

Additionally, the inexorable driving force that brought US and India together is the prospect of the US being at odds with two powers- Russia and China simultaneously. The Ukraine conflict has irrevocably damaged Russo-American ties and Sino-US ties are fraying with a likelihood of a Ukraine-like situation in the Indo-Pacific. Extraordinary geopolitical and geoeconomic convergences quintessentially caused the remarkable dynamism in the India-US Strategic partnership.

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India’s Story, the High Note of PM Modi’s US Congress Speech

For a country whose reputation is irrationally stymied by negative propaganda and history besmirched by colonial bias and widely prophesied to perish, its steady economic rise amid conflicts and a global recession is nothing short of a miracle. This is the chronicle of India, which squandered her initial decades of independence in reckless abandon consumed by wanton idealism and rendered asunder the dreams of the freedom fighters who freed the country from centuries of invasion and colonialism. Sadly, for India, even the best analysts predicted gloom and despair for the country.

India’s democratic fall has been an obsession of domestic and foreign observers since its existence as an independent country. Derided unceremoniously and dishonored despite its benign, holistic, and inclusive civilizational values, India has been ingloriously pushed to a corner. Its modest attempts to break these jinxed assumptions and wonky predictions were met with limited approval. While the US Marshall Plan for the war-ravaged European countries and its investments in China facilitated their economic boom, India’s economic rise has been rather slow despite the odds.

Written off as a huge country on the brink of collapse by observers, India has surprised them all by making a massive turnaround. India is now the fifth-largest global economy with immense potential for growth. Interestingly, as India is growing powerful, it is facing intense scrutiny. Though its role in contemporary geopolitics has been well appreciated the inherent bias toward India still persists. To effectively counter the sanctimonious scrutiny, countries invest heavily in narrative building and deploy soft power to carry out their desired objectives.

To thwart the surging tide of counter-narratives India must tell the World its story. Availing the ‘exceptional privilege’ of addressing the joint session of the US Congress for the second time, PM Modi underscored the India Story. Trouncing the warped and bigoted perspective that continues to dominate the discourse, at the iconic chambers of the US Congress, PM Modi expounded India’s approach to the World.

Ahead of the Congress address, invalidating the dystopian fears of “democracy is in danger”, discrimination of religious minorities, and the crackdown on dissent, at the Press Conference post the Joint statement, Modi stated, “Democracy is our spirit”. He added, “Democracy runs in our veins... when you say democracy and you accept democracy and when we live in democracy, then there is absolutely no space for discrimination. And that is why India believes in moving ahead with everybody with trust and with everybody’s efforts”¹.

Invoking “sab ka saath, sab ka vikas, sab ka vishwas, sab ka prayas” Modi indicated that the basic principles of democracy etched in our constitution are the guiding framework for his government. To demolish alarming levels of skepticism and deeply entrenched chequered perception about Indian democracy which has reached a crescendo since Modi’s second term, Modi talked about India’s goals, objectives and world outlook in length in his address to the US Congress.

The information warfare against India has become more intense ever since steady India’s domestic political administration has become stable and more resilient under the leadership of PM Modi. Year after year, while the United States Commission on International Religious Forum (USCIRF) continues to designate India as a ‘country of concern’ based on trumped-up charges, the Pew Research Survey released ahead of PM Modi’s visit to India explicitly stated that “98% of Indian Muslims are free to practice their religion”². The survey based on face-to-face interviews with 30,000 people debunks the politically trumped-up narratives against India.

India has been a victim of bad press. Indeed, the same survey debunks the myth of the genocide perpetrated by the vested interests and anti-India forces with “90% of Muslims indicated that they were extremely proud and 4% said they were moderately proud to be Indians”. Had India been on the verge of genocide, the numbers would speak otherwise.

Driving home the message that democracy is the sacred value shared by both India and United States, Modi stated that India is home to all faiths in the World and we celebrate all of them. “In India diversity is the natural way of life”. Highlighting the diversity he said, “we have over two thousand five hundred political parties. About twenty different parties govern various states of India. We have twenty-two official languages and thousands of dialects, yet we speak in one voice. Every hundred miles our cuisine changes”.

India is a thriving democracy with flourishing competitive and cooperative federalism with a contest of ideas. “In the evolution of democratic spirit, India is the mother of democracy”, he said. Acknowledging the divergence of opinions, in an indirect dig at politicians both at home and in the US, he reminded, “But, we must also come together as one when we speak for our nation”. Welcoming the partnership between the oldest democracy and the largest democracy which will augur well for the future of democracy Modi pledged, “Together, we shall give a better future to the world and a better world to the future”.

India is now the fifth-largest global economy set to become the third-largest by 2030. As home to one-sixth of humanity, Modi surmised, “When India grows, the whole world grows”, just as India’s freedom struggle inspired many countries, India’s new inclusive vision for development “sab ka saath, sab ka vikas, sab ka prayas” (together will everyone’s growth, everyone’s trust, and everyone’s efforts) is ushering a new change in the country in terms of infrastructure development, digitization, health insurance, medical treatment, and banking and is emulated by others countries. This inclusivity indeed, has helped India to tide through the covid and emerge stronger.

Highlighting the underappreciated facet of India’s “Nari Shakti” and the foundation mantra of “empowering the women, transforms the nation”, Modi recalled India’s spectacular Mangalyaan mission and women’s increasing role in India’s defence forces. “India’s vision is not just of development which benefits women. It is of women-led development, where women lead the journey of progress. A woman has risen from the humble tribal background, to be our head of State. Nearly 1.5 million elected women lead us at various levels and that is of local developments”.

India’s outlook toward the World is shaped by democracy, inclusion and sustainability. This is reflected in India’s pledge to the Paris Accord which was reached nine years prior to the target of 2030, Mission LiFE-Lifestyle for Environment and One Sun One World One Grid. India’s emphasis has been “pro-planet progress, pro-planet prosperity and pro-planet people”. Indeed, India’s core civilisational spirit of “vasudaiva kutumbakam”, the world is one family is aptly mirrored in G20 theme of “One Earth One Family One Future” which it chairs.

Dwelling on the commonalities between India and the US and the values like democracy, upholding the rules-based international order, vision of free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific, countering terrorism and driven by common interests to “diversify, decentralise and democratize the supply chains”, Modi observed, “the scope of our cooperation is endless, the potential of our synergies is limitless and the chemistry in our relations is effortless”.

United by a common destiny, reposing commitment to the India-US friendship and the unlocked partnership potential it offers, Modi asserted, “when our partnership progresses, economic resilience increases, innovation grows, science flourishes, knowledge advances, science benefits, our skies and  seas are safer, democracy will shine brighter and the world will be a better place”³.

Modi’s momentous address comes at a time when popular discourse is dominated by US two-tier posturing with President Biden playing the good cop and former President Obama, the bad cop. Hours prior to Modi’s address to the US Congress, Obama warned of India’s potential breakup and oppression of Muslims. The dichotomy of the narratives is at its dubious best in the United States currently.

Modi’s speech has ticked all the right boxes in terms of communicating with the audience, the illustrious policymakers of the US, who have lined up for his autograph and selfie after his address. The 15 standing ovations and 79 applauses vouch for the rare bipartisan support the address has elicited.

Traditionally, the US Congress has been the most venerated platform for leaders to reach out to the US and engage with the Western world. With an eloquent oratory, vibrant messaging suffused with a pragmatic vision, PM Modi struck the right chords. But the deep-rooted iniquitous posturing of the US and a hovering nebula of skepticism keep India suspicious of the United States affirmations.

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India and US Must Transcend Traditional Alliance Barriers for a Transformative Partnership

The ongoing PM Modi’s visit to the US is truly epochal. Unlike his previous visits to the United States, the Biden administration has bestowed the honour of elevating it to a “State visit”, the privilege extended to two leaders till now, French President Emmanuel Macron and South Korean President Yoon Sook Yeol both of whom are allies.

PM Modi is the third Indian leader after President Sarvepalli Radhakrishna, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to make a State visit to the US and will be receipt of the most prestigious welcome with all the pomp and pageantry that Washington can accord. For a man who was denied a visa and prohibited from stepping on its territory, this is an incredible turnaround.

Along with the highest ceremonial honour, PM Modi has permanently etched his name on the global memory by leading representatives from more than 180 countries on International Yoga Day at the very place that has unanimously credited India for sharing this greatest wealth with the World. By joining the rare club of foreign leaders who have addressed the Joint Session of the US Congress more than once along with Winston Churchill, Nelson Mandela and others, Modi will go down in Indian history as a Statemen with a rare diplomatic acumen for steering the India-US Comprehensive Strategic Global Partnership to new heights.

Weathering the storm of hostility and suspicion of the cold war era and the punitive sanctions post India’s nuclear tests in 1998 the climactic volte-face in the bilateral ties paved by Clinton’s visit in 2000, the putative “Nixon moment” for India has altered the course of the bilateral partnership. PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s assertion of India and the US are “natural allies”, notwithstanding the US sanctions in 1998 and President Clinton’s pragmatic Parliamentary address of the “shared values” framework and 25 years of efforts, has now positioned the strategic partnership in a special place.

Irrespective of the political party at the helm, a quarter century of concerted endeavours of the leaderships of both countries have heralded the partnership which is now finding great strategic salience. Guided by the framework of the foundational agreements, building strategic convergences the partnership is now entering a new phase with countries intent on bolstering defence cooperation as a vital pillar of this partnership.

Embarking on the full diplomatic state visit, PM Modi in his interview with the WSJ said, “India deserves a much higher, deeper and wider profile and a role” and added, “ties between New Delhi and Washington are stronger and deeper than ever. There is an unprecedented trust...”¹. Unequivocally setting the agenda, amid the gushing enthusiasm pertaining to his visit and the flustering of China over losing out on the exalted position of the central focus of Asia for the US, Modi stated, “Let me be clear that we do not see India as supplanting any country. We see this process as India gaining its rightful position in the world… the world today is more interconnected and interdependent than ever before. To create resilience, there should be more diversification in supply chains”.

Rattled by steady progress in India-US partnership, ahead of PM Modi’s visit, Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi, in a lengthy op-Ed titled “India’s economic ties with the US cannot replace its trade with China” warned, “geopolitical calculation of the US is doomed to fail because China’s position in the global supply chain cannot be replaced by India or other economies”. He further mentioned that “if the US and India want to further develop economic and trade cooperation, they should solve the problems between themselves, rather than targeting China… the US pays lip service to India but seldom delivers” and remarked, “India has the right to choose favourable economic and trade policies to accord its own interests, but it ought to abandon geopolitical calculation, such as considering joining the US’s reckless and selfish game to contain China”².

When the India-US ties took off under the Clinton administration, China was a non-issue and the relationship was independent of China. Modi’s assertion ostensibly demolishes a brewing set of perceptions which suggest that New Delhi’s tightened embrace of the US is in response to the 2020 Galwan incident. But on the contrary, the watershed moment of India-US relations has been the 123 Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement in 2005 and the inception of the Quad 1.0 in 2007 with Japan, Australia India and the US.

Built on the strength of shared values and mutual interests, both countries carefully nurtured the ties by widening the cooperation to a gamut of sectors. Over time, the mutual anxieties of countries over China’s unabated assertiveness and aggressiveness have fostered strategic convergence and operational coordination birthing Quad 2.0 and the advocacy of the “Indo-Pacific” construct.

Supply Chain disruptions and China’s relentless expansionist pursuits even at the height of the Covid have sharpened prevailing antagonism towards Beijing with the West eventually making India an important partner of their respective Indo-Pacific strategies. The mutual suspicion of China, diversification of supply chains, steady economic growth, and digitization has positioned India as a consequential partner for the US. India is now the fifth-largest global economy tipped to overtake Germany and Japan by 2030. Amid the anomalous economic recovery, covid restrictions and common prosperity of China, India has become a natural magnet for FDIs.

Despite apprehensions of the US repeating its history with China and sceptic admonitions of “America’s bad bet on India”³, India remains the lone balancer that doesn’t see the World in duality. Villanised for its oil imports from Russia, reports now hail India for saving the West by buying Russian Oil⁴. By routing its imports from Russia, India has freed up more oil for European countries to buy from the Middle East. Accused of “oil laundering” India’s gargantuan refining capacities and India’s petroleum products offset the global shortages.

Even as critics forebode the US of repeating its history with China, firming up the strategic partnership both countries announced, US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) in May 2022. This initiative came in the wake of Xi’s clarion call at the 20^th CCP Congress to make China a techno-superpower. Ever since Beijing started earmarking huge amounts of funds for Chinese companies, opportunities for multinational companies started dwindling.

The threat from a techno-authoritarian, China prompted the US to partner with India an innovation powerhouse with flourishing unicorns in deep tech, space sector, defence technologies, health and edtech for open societies. US policymakers enthusiastic about India’s successful testing of the Open-Radio Access Networks (O-RAN) as a pathway to 5G are expediting academic and industrial collaboration under the iCET framework.

An aspirational strategic partnership in emerging technologies besides taking the trajectory of the partnership to a new level can augur well with the demands of tech-driven economies. Aligning the US’s CHIPS Act and Science Act with India’s Semiconductor Mission, India and US have signed MoU on establishing a semiconductor supply chain and innovation partnership in March 2023⁵. Walking the talk, ahead of PM Modi’s visit India has approved the US Chipmaker Micron Technology to set up a semiconductor testing and packaging unit in Gujarat under the PLI (Production-Linked Incentives) Scheme.

Despite India’s $25 billion worth defence imports from the US, defence cooperation failed to reach its potential due to Washington’s reluctance to co-development and co-production coupled with denial of transfer of technology.  With explicit directions to remove these hurdles, Biden is reportedly making amends in the existing provisions to deepen defence cooperation with India. Hence, an agreement on the long pending key defence deals can well be the biggest milestone since the 2005 civil nuclear cooperation agreement.  

The outcomes of the purchase of armed Predator or MQ-9 Sea Guardian drones and the co-production of jet engines for Tejas Mark-2 fighter between Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and General Electric (GE) during Modi’s visit can be transformational propelling progress in other areas as well. Other than the Quad, India is now part of Washington’s IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework), I2U2 (India Israel UAE US) and another minilateral on the anvil with UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Circumventing obstacles and legislative provisions while the Biden administration is pushing for a robust partnership with India, critics are nitpicking on things. Contradictory impulses and potential frictions continue to be a drag on the India-US relationship.  The alliance system has been at the heart of US foreign policy with expectations of unconditional friendship. Disinclined to be obligated to any power given its colonial fears India is averse to alliances.

India’s strong ties with Russia and its reliance on Moscow for defence supplies can be a major sticking point in the India-US partnership. India defies the alliance system and pursues an independent foreign policy. India espouses a commitment to a multipolar world. Expounding on India’s foreign policy EAM Jaishankar in his interview with the Economist, said, “You have an India which is looking at multiple opportunities across multiple geographies, often polities which have contradictory interests. And it is trying to advance on all fronts”⁶. 

Rejecting cooperation with India for its multiple alignments and misplaced attributions of illiberal democracy and contorted perceptions of the ruling party as a Hindu nationalist and Islamophobic can disorient the partnership. Intense scrutiny and relentless negative propaganda can breed mistrust and deplete the narrow convergence of shared interests. A genuine understanding of India’s domestic complexities and governance difficulties can jettison the ideological hesitations.

For a sustainable long-term partnership, both countries must be appreciative of non-negotiables. India’s strategic autonomy is non-negotiable. Any attempts to cannibalise India’s independent foreign policy can offset the balance.

The binaries of the Western order are no longer relevant. The modus operandi of the alliance system is outdated for the 21^st century where developing economies are seeking multiple partnerships to usher their countries into new realms of development and progress. India-US relationship mirrors a new geopolitical reality of countries not in complete agreement working together on shared interests. India is attempting to rescript a new template for the post-WWII world for relations beyond alliance constructs and a pragmatic American approach can transform India-US ties into a ‘consequential partnership’.

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