Friday 24 April 2020

Violent attack on Arnab Goswami: a threat to freedom of expression


You love him or hate him but you can’t ignore him. Arnab Goswami is definitely awkward at times, persistent, repetitive, bellicose and loud. But an attack on Arnab and wife on the intervening night of April 22 and 23rd by two congress goons for referring Sonia Gandhi by her maiden name and questioning her silence over Palghar issue is despicable. Arnab’s high-pitched debated on Palghar has spooked the Congress party. Jharkhand State Congress party filed a complaint and demanded FIR against Arnab for making, “instigator, derogatory and defamatory”. Spooked by the uncomfortable questions, in the “Puchata Bharat”, levelling the charges of fuelling disharmony between religious groups, various state Congress party cadres lodged a slew of complaints against Republic channel and Arnab. Soon, a troll brigade carried out similar propaganda on social media as well.

Main stream media slyly evaded the coverage of bone-chilling brutality of a frenzied mob attacking two sadhus and their driver while the police watched the gruesome incident as irresponsible bystanders. Arnab and Republic channel questioned the silence of media and various political groups. He launched a searing attack on Congress party for its silence. Mincing no words, he argued if the party would adopt similar stand had the victims belonged to minority community. In the past seven decades of India’s independence, the grand old always circumvented scrutiny and evaded political accountability. Its authority and actions remained unquestioned and unchallenged. A feudal approach became integral to their functioning. They brooked no criticism and never felt the need to explain themselves for any inimical actions what so ever.

Freedom of Expression (FoE) has been a catchy phrase for them. They conveniently draped it when suited their interests and impetuously forlorn the paradigm when its authority was contested. In a crowd sourced thread on FoE Anand Ranganathan busted the myth of Congress party’s commitment to FoE; a propaganda euphemistically spread by the Leftist cabal, the inveterate lackeys of the GOP 1.  In fact, Censorship on media, trampling of freedom of press during 1975 emergency is the true manifestation of Congress party’s dubious credentials on FoE. The party has been intolerant towards any criticism honest or otherwise and always dealt any censure with an iron fist. The dynasty, has the legacy of silencing strident critics through constitutional, legal and other tools. In line with the legacy bequeathed, the party, its current president and her children have always demonstrated their utter disrespect towards India’s institutions, systems and irreverentially peddled news through pliable media for greater political mileage.

The attack perpetrated by party workers at the behest of the higher ups on the fourth pillar of democracy for blurting inconvenient truths and the cynical justification offered by the Congress stalwarts reaffirms the sense of entitlement of GOP. The so-called open, liberal, secular and progressive Lutyens brigade has always been the hand maiden of the party. This brigade, which outrages at the drop of the hat when the narrative doesn’t suit their interests, has anticipated maintained a stoic indifference to the lynching of the Sadhus.

The Cabal which triggered a row over similar events in the past and grabbed international headlines with fake award wapsi exercise, as a mark of protest, refused to even condemn the Palghar event. The apathy of the party and liberal brigade as well exposing their double standards and underscored the stunning nexus between both of them. Towing the line of the GOP, none of the media outlets has even condemned violent attack on Arnab. The blatant intimidation to force a journalist into silence hardly evoked any response from the fourth pillar of democracy. Suffice to say, they acknowledged the attack and endorsed the silencing of inconvenient voices. The sham outrage and the selectivity of the liberal brigade and elites is now glaring exposed.

Not a single media outlet had the temerity to call the high-handedness of the dynasty.
The irony of the intolerant brigade and the entitled Lutyens gang, is incorrigible and irredeemable!!! But still they continue to hold the badge of mirroring the voices of people.

After much dilly-dallying the Press Council of India (PCI), condemned the violent attack against Arnab Goswami but it wasn’t unequivocal. The statement lacked the fair intent and glaringly exposed the chinks the armour of the Indian media solidarity. Downplaying the attack, the statement even added, “Violence is not the answer even against bad journalism”. The new paradigm of good and bad journalism (bearing eerie resemblances to the doctrine of good and bad terrorism used by certain countries to white-wash their insidious agenda) has exposed the hypocrisy of the media fraternity. Media’s half-hearted response inadvertently ascertained the prominent notions of media collusion with the political masters.

Refusal of the Mumbai police to register case against Congress workers for the attack on senior journalist, meek condemnation of the PCI and the ineptness of the servile Maharashtra Chief Minister is yet another confirmation that FoE is still a myth in India and reestablishes the invincibility of the dynasty.



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Weaponization of Water by China


Use of trade, rare-earth minerals, limiting imports, tourism as strategic weapons by China is well documented. But Middle Kingdom’s vivacity to use water as a political weapon evaded international attention thus far. China used water as a coercive weapon against India during the 73-day long Doklam stand-off in 2017. China suspended hydrological data sharing of Brahmaputra waters as a tool to leverage its position. Politicization of water related data exacerbated India’s fears about China’s dam construction spree across Brahmaputra which flows from Tibet to India and Bangladesh. China’s opacity, reluctance to share hydrological data and unannounced release of water caused floods in Indian states of Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh in the past. India sought to have an agreement, but China spurned India’s initiative.

Finally, India and China signed two MoUs in 2013 and an accord in 2014 obligating China to sharer hydrological data from three upstreaming monitoring stations in Tibet between May 5th and 15th every year 4. India regularly pays for this data and despite the payment, it withheld the data on the pretext of some technical reasons in the wake of the Doklam standoff. As a result, though North-East region received less than average precipitation during Monsoon season, unannounced opening of flood gates by China inundated the region from Assam to Uttar Pradesh, killing 71 people and displacing over 40,000. While Chinese officials refuted India’s claims of withholding the data, Bangladesh, later confirmed to have received data from China during the Doklam standoff.

Playing straight from its book of coercive diplomacy, China inflicted severe damage on India. This classic case of use of non-military weapon to gain an advantage have inadvertently exposed Middle Kingdom’s callousness to trigger a humanitarian disaster. A report titled, “Monitoring the Quantity of water flowing through the Upper Mekong through natural (unimpeded) conditions5 prepared by Eyes on Earth, Inc and Global Environmental Satellite Applications, Inc released on April 10th, showed how damming of Mekong River has caused drought in the downstream region. This report underpinned China’s propensity to play “dangerous game of water poker”. Close on heels, on April 13th, a paper titled, “How China turned off the tap on the Mekong River?” 6 authored by Brian Eyler interpreted the observations of Eyes on Earth report and put the matters in perspective.

From 1992 to 2018, China built 11 major dams on Mekong river, considered to be second most biodiverse river after Amazon. The seventh largest Asian river passes through six countries including China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam. The relentless dam building pursuit of China in the upper Mekong region has increased the frequency and severity of droughts, drastically altered the bio-diversity, led to extinction of natural flora and fauna in the lower Mekong region. Last year, downstream countries-Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam faced worst drought in the past two decades.

Addressing aggrieved farmers in Cambodia, Wang Yi, Chinese foreign Minister, at 5th Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) Foreign Ministers meeting, Vientiane, said, we feel the pain. Defending Beijing, he added, despite severe water shortages, China managed to increase water discharge to alleviate impact of the drought. In reality, China received uncommonly high amounts of precipitation from April-September 2019 but reduced the discharge of water to lower riparian states.

As warned by strategists, Mekong river management has close parallels to South China sea dispute where China intends to leverage its control without firing a bullet by controlling the water flows.  According to experts, China has been impounding water in the reservoirs of the dams denying the downstream countries of their due share of water. Through erratic and unannounced opening of the dam gates, China is wreaking havoc in the Mekong basin.

In terms of volume, Stimson estimates that amount of the water collectively stored by 11 dams-built since 1992 till 2018- Manwan, the first dam was commissioned in 1993, followed by Dachaosan, Jinghong, Xiaowan, Nuozhadu, Gongguoquiao, Miaowei, Huangdeng, Dahuaqioa, Lidi, Wunonglong is approximately equal to water in Chesapeake Bay which has a containment area of 166,534 km2 and covers six states-New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia. Since the operationalisation of fifth dam, Nuozhadu, with largest reservoir in 2012, the water woes of downstream countries worsened.

China has sixth largest water resources in terms of volume. But due to unequal distribution of water resources, parts of the country experience scarcity. Southern China is relatively wet while Northern regions like Beijing and Tianjin are dry and face severe water shortages. India and China, the two largest countries in the continent are severely water stressed. The per capita water availability in China is per capita 2075m3, one third of the global average. India’s is more stressed than China with average water availability of 1427 m3 per person. They are ranked 120 and 138 respectively3.

Water is extremely crucial for the economic development. Invasion of Tibet in part is driven by China’s strategic ambition of attaining water security.  Tibet, considered as the Third Pole is replete of enviable water resources. It is source of major river systems of the region-Indus, Mekong, Brahmaputra, Ganga, Irrawaddy, Salween, Yangtze, Huang He. China regards water as a sovereign resource and strongly detests the idea of sharing water with the downstream countries. It closely guards the data related to water usage, storage and deems hydrological operation as a state secret.

Home to 1.4 billion, China always accorded highest priority to water security. To keep the wheels of economic development running, China developed a water policy. China shares 42 transboundary water courses including lakes with neighbouring countries and hence its water policy is at the core of Asia’s water security. China the upper riparian state, advocates the Harmon Doctrine which confers the upper riparian state absolute right to use the waters unilaterally irrespective of lower riparian concerns. China is not party to international water sharing conventions-1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Water Resources and Helsinki Rules on the Uses of the Waters of International Rivers. Nor did it enter any water sharing agreement with any country1.
For sustainable development and equitable sharing of water resources in the Mekong basin, the US, Japan and World Bank instituted inter-governmental organisation, Mekong River Commission (MRC) in 1995. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand the lower Mekong region members joined MRC. China is not part of MRC.

China treats South East Asia as its backyard. To wield paramount influence over the region, China used Mekong cooperation to foster nebulous game of Hydro diplomacy. Undermining the relevance of MRC, China initiated, Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism in 2014 comprising all six countries. Funding an extremely lavish building for Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen China earned its subjugation.

Tonle Sap Lake the largest fresh water lake in Cambodia, a potential fishing zone, ground for migratory birds and diverse flora is now showing all the signs of depleting biodiversity. The lake which thrives on hydrological phenomenon of monotonal flood-pulsed system naturally expands to six times its size in wet season and resizes back to its original size in dry season has been disrupted by unabated dam construction on Mekong 7. Thousands of fishermen and farmers who depend on the lake are now deprived of their livelihoods. Sen who has moved into Chinese orbit and inked agreements to construct hydropower dams on Mekong in Cambodia has turned into a mute spectator.
Nearly one-third of Laos economy runs on power and mining exports. Any shutdown of water supply, will bring the land-locked country to its knees. Hence, instead of challenging China’s erratic water and unannounced water release is urging Beijing to release water. China cultivated several pro-China environmental groups to deal with the discontent among the citizens distressed by depleting water levels of River Chiang Saeng in Thailand. Last year, the water levels shrunk to record low level; about 126.44 mt of river height was reportedly lost at gauge. China Embassy in Thailand argued, “Frequent floods in Mekong basin are the effects of global climate change”. Deflecting the blame, it added, construction of a cascade of dams is an effective measure against climate change. “The hydropower dams which release water during the dry season and store in the wet season are able to adjust the levels of Lancang-Mekong River2. Under normal conditions, water flow is normal in wet season and discharge is released during dry season. Overtly, China talks of win-win cooperation, the favourite punch line of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), and shared common interests, but it has been turning off the taps at will. This erratic water release has disrupted natural seasonal fluctuations and farming activities and downstream regions are reeling under severe drought.

Vietnam, which has a territorial dispute with China and located at the far end of Mekong basin is worst affected. Rice farmers of Vietnam are bearing the brunt of China’s water diplomacy. Distressed by China’s water hegemony, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia have stalled some hydropower projects under the BRI. Disregarding needs of other countries, China launched a project to boost trans-national navigation 9. Ruthless dredging has changed the course of river, polluted the rivers and damaged the delicate ecological balance. Study by Stimson, indicates that the hydropower dams across Mekong river in China rarely use them for power generation. The huge reservoirs are meant for water storage.

China is increasingly building storage dams with potential for flood-control and irrigation, instead of run-of-river dams (where is returned to river after use), across Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) and controlling water flows to India and Bangladesh.

Recent report clearly underscores Chinese intentions of using water as a leverage against smaller riparian members. China is intent on attaining greater self-reliance in terms of water security, promulgated, “Three Red Lines Policy” for stringent water resources management; to control total water use, improve water use efficiency and control water pollution. To address regional water imbalances as envisioned by Mao Zedong back in 1952, China has taken up a gigantic water diversion project South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) expected to cost $62 billion. As of 2014, China is reported to have spent $79 billion on SNWTP designed to connect Yangtze and Yellow river (both Chinese rivers). A central water diversion project of 1400km long connecting the Han river in Hubei province to Beijing and Tianjin is completed in 2014. Now plans are afoot to use other trans-border rivers like Yarlung Tsangpo, the Nu and Lancang (Mekong) for future transfer projects 8.

It is time the lower riparian rivers seek transparency with regard to hydrological data of Mekong river. But China effectively weakened the solidarity between the Mekong members by co-opting them. While the members scramble to evolve a collective strategy, China is vigorously using water as coercive stick. Similarly, India and Bangladesh should make appeal for transparency in sharing information and curb China’s maverick use of water resource as a strategic weapon.



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Thursday 16 April 2020

India's Proactive CoVID Outreach


In the 21st century, the global world order is shifting East. Increasingly, two oldest civilisations, two large countries- India and China jostling for influence are back in spotlight. A World battling a cataclysmic health crisis supposedly originated from China, is reeling under a war-like emergency situation with no end in sight.  The Middle Kingdom exuding hubris of returning to normalcy, has accelerated agencies to win a war of narratives distancing itself from the health catastrophe it has unleashed. While India has significantly taken a different route. Touted as a third world country, demonstrating a strong national leadership, India initiated regional cooperation and motivated multilateral forum like the G-20 and G-7 for enhanced coordination to protect people from the pandemic.

Days after WHO declared the Chinese Corona Virus (CCV) a pandemic, Indian Prime Minister Modi, offered to lead a regional fight against CCV.  As infections began to spiral, with regional leaders of South Asia, (baring Pakistan) on board, India proposed creation of SAARC CoVID-19 Emergency Fund and pledged $10 million. Paving way for a collaborative regional CCV battle, India offered to share medical expertise, requisite software and tele-training of medical personnel. Emulating India’s efforts, President Emmanuel Macron convened a video conferencing of G-7 leaders and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison supported Modi’s efforts to have special virtual conference of G-20 leaders.  

Avoiding the temptation of indulging in name-calling and “scapegoating”, sharing best practices, Modi held conversations with various World leaders. Setting the wheels of health diplomacy in motion, MEA started the CoVID-19 control centre to provide assistance to the India Diaspora living across different geographies of the World. At a time when nations are looking inwards to tackle threatening scale of Corona infection, India uniquely fashioned out an approach of fostering collaborative effort and began exploring new forms of solidarity. Joining a video-conference summoned by US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Beigun, foreign secretary Harsh Shringla exchanged India’s best practices with Indo-Pacific representatives from Australia, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand and Japan.

Setting the stage for a joint effort, Prime Minister held telephonic conversations with G-20 leaders-Russian President Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the President of EU, Ursula Von Der Leyen and Australian counterpart Morrison.

Modi has been the force behind the G-20 Extraordinary Virtual Leaders’ Summit which eventually agreed to contribute to the WHO-led COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund on voluntary basis and pledged to pump $5 Trillion to boost global economy. Setting the narrative for the G-20 summit, Modi urged for a humanitarian approach and coordinated global action. Besieged by the economic fallout and surging infections, while First World leaders faltered in prioritising, public health, Modi led the way. Enforcing a national wide lockdown without violating the democratic rights of the people, India led by example. Imposing strict social distancing vital for breaking the viral transmission chain, India invalidated the fears of World agencies which predicted a health disaster of enormous proportions. The antidote of lockdown which subdued the rate of infection spread, soon became a norm in countries grappling with stubborn infection trajectories.

While countries like the US imposed bans on the export of masks, India sent consignments of medical supplies to Maldives, Sri Lanka, Israel and China. While China even refused to acknowledge India’s timely help, India stepped up assistance to neighbouring countries. Together with its far-sighted and audacious approach and timely evacuation of foreign citizens India ramped up its credibility as a reliable and responsible power.

Safeguarding national interests and the concept of “vasudaivakutumbakam” have been the guiding principles of Modi’s foreign policy doctrine. Deftly striking a balance between two approaches, India steadily ramped up production of essential drugs sufficient to meet domestic needs and for their export to countries in need.

The US reeling under the mounting Corona death toll, touted Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) as the proverbial magic bullet in the CCV treatment. In his telephonic conversation with Prime Minister Modi, Trump expressed America’s interest in importing the drug. India produces 70% of HCQ, used in treating malaria and arthritis. Though the efficacy of the drug in CCV treatment yet to be scientifically proven, France has recently reported some success with this drug. Trump’s advisers contended that it can be useful for protecting the frontline workers from infection.

Hard hit by Corona virus, Brazilian President Bolsonaro in his letter to place a request for HCQ invoked Ramayana. Caught up in global high demand for this medicine, after his telephonic conversation with Prime Minister Modi, wrote a letter. It read, “Just as Lord Hanuman brought holy medicine from Himalayas to save the life of Lord Rama’s brother Lakshmana and Jesus healed those who were sick and restored sight to Bartimeu, India and Brazil will overcome the global crisis by joining forces and sharing blessings for the sake of all peoples. Please accept, your Excellency, the assurances of my highest esteem and consideration4.

Given the steady rise of infections concerns were raised regarding its sufficiency and availability for domestic exigencies. Early March, India initially enforced a ban on the export of essential medical supplies. After a comprehensive assessment of stock availability for domestic contingencies and responding to global demand for HCQ, India partially lifted the on HCQ and Paracetamol. Honouring its commitment towards immediate neighbourhood, which is dependent on India, India first dispatched supplies to SAARC nations.  Later approved export of HCQ to US, Brazil, Spain, Germany, Bahrain, UK, France, Australia, New Zealand, Seychelles, Israel, Dominican Republic, Mauritius, Oman, South Africa and some African countries.

While much is made out in the time lag between India’s official announcement and Trump’s retaliation warning, the underpinning message remains that India rose to the occasion in times of health emergency. Profusely appreciating India’s gesture, America and Brazil thanked India. During a press briefing Trump said, “I want to thank Prime Minister Modi of India for allowing us to have what we requested from before the problem arose. And he was-he was terrific. We’ll remember it10.
India’s help on humanitarian grounds is invaluable. Aside the intangible gains of elevation of India’s geopolitical stature, export of essential drugs holds the promise of strengthening bilateral ties. Yesterday, Trump administration approved the sale of Harpoon air launched anti-Ship missiles and Mark 54 light weight torpedoes worth $155 million which can enhance India’s deterrent capabilities against Chinese threats 1. Harpoon missiles integrated with the P-8I anti-submarine warfare aircraft will also increase India’s interoperability with US defence forces operating in the region.

Humanitarian assistance and disaster rescue has been India’s forte. Consolidating its credentials, from mid-March till April 11th India facilitated evacuation of 28,000 people from 43 countries2. Praising India’s efforts to rescue stranded people, Air Traffic Controller of Pakistan greeted Air India, “Assalaam Alaikum! This is Karachi’s control welcoming Air India for relief flights to Frankfurt”. An acclaim from unexpected corners is certainly a moment of pride for India3.

Last week India received a request for HCQ from Malaysia. Indo-Malaysian ties suffered a huge set back with former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed calling Kashmir as an invaded territory at the UN and terming CAA as discriminatory during the Mini Muslim Coalition, Kuala Lumpur Summit. Irked by Mahathir’s repeated references to Kashmir, India cut down palm oil imports from Malaysia. But things turned optimistic under the leadership of new Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. Keeping the incongruities that seeped into the bilateral relationship at bay, India agreed to sell HCQ to Malaysia 5. Turkey which spew venom on India over abrogation of article 370 and towed Pakistani line has placed request for HCQ. If some reports are to be believed even Pakistan has also sought HCQ from India 6.

HCQ touted as the game-changer for Corona pandemic appears to critically changed World’s perception of India. Unlike the Middle Kingdom which is pursuing global ambitions through mask diplomacy, media manipulation and armtwisting nations into adopting 5G to import Chinese made medical supplies 7 India is rendering possible help and assistance with no strings attached. Effectively combining the health diplomacy with humanitarian assistance, India is winning accolades of people. India gifted 75,000 MT of wheat to Afghanistan ensuring food security to the war-ravaged country 8. New Delhi sent a Rapid Response Team of 15 doctors at the request of Kuwait government9 to assist and strengthen Kuwait’s Corona combat. Unleashing a PR operation, while Chinese state media, bombarded every possible communication channel with the news of 9 Chinese health workers arriving in Italy, away from the media glare, India silently deputed a team of doctors to Kuwait.

Amid the unprecedented health crisis, with unwavering commitment to democracy, through sustained leadership, aside riding the Corona storm with persuasion (as opposed to coercion) India has followed the doctrine of Vasudaivakutubakam, in letter and spirit. Parallels are often drawn between India and China as the two emerging forces of 21st century. At a time when China is showcasing its system as perfect, despite the imperfections in democracy, India is delivering results through an open system. Clearly, with its willingness to coordinate, contribute and cooperate global efforts, India has earned respect of nations and displayed a rare mettle of leadership during testing times.



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Sunday 12 April 2020

China’s geopoliticking and arm twisting amid Corona Virus Pandemic


Chinese Corona Virus (CCV) has created a global wartime like crisis. Touted as weapon-less war of the modern era by the analysts, the pandemic has disrupted the supply chains and inflicted terrible human and economic losses. Having delegated the state media agencies to adeptly gloss over its failures in containing viral spread by suppressing information, China embraced soft diplomacy to aggressively rebrand itself as a global leader.

Weaponless-war inflicted by China is no different from it policy of expansionism pivoted on punitive salami slicing and stealth penetration. Middle Kingdom has steadily expanded its boundaries and continues to do so without firing a bullet. To deflect World’s attention and to augur its ambitious rise as a dominant global player, China is employing the potent weapon of media manipulation as well. Effectively firewalling its citizens from the external world, China developed inhouse social media platforms and search engines shielding them from an alternative opinion. On the other hand, cognizant of the power of “narrative building” Beijing proactively encourages Chinese diplomats to lead worldwide campaign on Twitter. Though people are now able to see through this nefarious strategy, China is still defiant on changing its approach. The way, China has been cultivating influential thinkers through its agencies and maiming the World has now become an interesting study for analysts.

While the World is gripped by CCV, the authoritarian regime of China claiming to have tamed the virus through draconian measures has splashed the newspapers with news of easing restrictions and opening of public spaces. Deploying disinformation propaganda machinery and launching overambitious diplomatic overdrive of offering medical aid, China is leaving no stone to buttress its strategic objective of strengthening global clout.

Even as Beijing is redoubling its propaganda to show that China is back to business, a week after movie theatres opened with much fanfare, local governments forced them to shut1. Fresh infections reported in China are triggering fears of second cycle of infection. Even restaurant chains are ordered to close raising doubts over Chinese blitz-Krieg propaganda. Reports now contend China’s reported death toll stands bungled 2.

Wuhan Virology labs which prides in discovering over 2000 virus from bats is just miles away from the wet market. Corona virus which created humongous chaos, panic and disruption thrived in the wet markets of Wuhan, but China hasn’t imposed any restrictions on the livestock business. As a testimony to its claims of life is stirring back to normalcy, wet markets are allowed to re-open. They are back to business, selling live scorpions, bats and slaughtering animals callously. Ironically, the China under donning the veneer of good Samaritan is clinching business deals for supplying medical supplies. Despite huge backlash from countries for supplying sub-standard test kits and PPE, frustrated by shortages of medical stockpiles, countries are placing contracts with China’s, the biggest manufacturing hub.

Bullying Taiwan

Aside the much touted, “mask diplomacy”, China is advancing its expansionist agenda. While the World is consumed by the task of battling the Chinese virus, the Middle Kingdom is flexing muscles.  Ever since the spectacular re-election of the pro-independence Taiwanese President Tsai Ing Wen, China has made no attempts to hide its animosity. Pertinently China has stepped up military drills and bullying tactics. Just weeks after Tsai assumed charge, Beijing steadily stepped up tensions in the region. Battling Corona virus by sealing the Hubei province, on Feb 10th China’s H-6 bombers provocatively entered Taiwanese Strait. Taiwan responded by scrambling F-16 aircrafts to intercept Chinese bombers and US flew B-52 nuclear capable bombers, MC-130J Commando II close to Taiwan the next day.

The following week, China conducted live drills and defended the “air- ground assault and fire ground support” as an attempt to fine tune its combat its defence capabilities. Taiwan authorities later clarified that Chinese exercises included H-6 bombers, J-11 jet fighters and KJ-500 early air warning aircraft. These flights besides circumnavigating Taiwan flew over the Japan’s Senkaku islands, in the East China Sea, which China claims as its territory. Despite the pandemic, China which maintains Taiwan is its renegade province, is brazenly terrorising the island 4.

Advocating “One-China” policy, China prevailed on many small nations to severe ties with Taiwan and influenced WHO to deny invitation to Taiwan to World Health Assembly as observer. Since 2016, Taiwan lost seven diplomatic allies-El Salvador, Sao Tome and Principe, Panama, The Dominican Republic, Burkina Faso, Solomon Islands and Kiribati.

Wary of Taiwan’s democracy evolving into a dynamic force, casting a pragmatic influence on Hongkong democratic movement, China is upping pressurising tactics. In the wake of Corona pandemic China started trumpeting the phenomenal success of authoritarian regime in controlling the virus and mocked at democracies scrambling to control the infection.  Taiwan, barely hundred miles from China, denied of any first-hand information on CCV from WHO, efficiently managed the pandemic and shone as an exemplary example for the free world. Taiwan’s growing international space roiled China. It has intensified, “encirclement drills”. Again, in March, to warding off, Chinese intrusions, Taiwan scrambled aircrafts.

US Aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt passed through these waters on its way to Guam as a warning to China. Giving teeth to a pro-Taiwan approach, President Trump signed bipartisan “TAIPEI (Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative) Act” on March 28th to enhance Taiwan’s international presence5. Besides supporting Taiwan’s candidature as an observer at various international institutions, the act threatened to cut economic, social and diplomatic relations with nations that undermined Taiwan. This act, is definitely a shot in arm for Taiwan which is doing phenomenally well in controlling the pandemic. While China is accused of exporting defective medical supplies, by donating 10 million face masks to the US and European countries Taiwan is earning the appreciation of the World. China’s malevolent strategy towards Taiwan amid pandemic is now highly rebuked.

Taiwan is strategically important for the US to have a foothold in the Pacific Ocean. From the first day in office, Trump has pursued a friendly policy towards Taiwan. The TAIPEI act has created more fissures in the Sino-US relations which is reeling under economics and trade tensions.

China’s aggressive posturing in South China Sea (SCS)

Towards the end of March, US Navy was embroiled in controversies over its inept handling of Corona Virus on board.  Given the fresh Corona infections among the marines on US aircraft carriers (USS Theodore Roosevelt, USS Ronald Regan) deployed in the Pacific and US installations in the region, Pentagon ordered cancellation of movement of troops between installations, recruitment and training of fresh recruits to control the spread of virus. US has 11 aircraft carriers in its fleet which include nuclear-powered carrier that needs extensive overhauling at regular intervals. Currently, only five carriers are available for deployment. Of them two are deployed in Persian Gulf, the two carriers in Pacific are plagued by the Corona virus infections. Another one is operating on US East Coast 6.
Making the best of America’s operational vulnerabilities, China which exerts its claims over 90% of SCS has sunk a Vietnamese fishing boat in the waters near the Paracel Islands, (China refers to them as Xisha Islands). China Coast Guard vessel rammed into the Vietnamese boat operating within its waters in an apparent message to Vietnam which is slowly cosying up to America in the recent past. Also, China announced plans of setting new research stations on military bases Fiery Cross Reef and Subi Reef, the disputed Shoals built by China in SCS 7.

Back in January, Chinese vessel backed by military escort attempted to enter Natuna waters. Despite repeated requests, China operated near Indonesian territorial waters. Finally, Indonesia deployed a warship backed with F-16 to assert its control.

Underwater drones in IOR

Bolstering presence in the strategic Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has been on Chinese cards for some time. To expand its maritime foothold China joined counter-piracy operations in Gulf of Aden, Somalian Coast in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. As a part of the mission, China has been deploying advanced submarines, guided missile destroyer and frigate capable of attacking surface ships and submarines. This ostentatious display of defence capabilities under the guise of anti-piracy operation has raised many eyebrows. Docking of submarine at the Colombo port and frequent sneaking into the IOR region has been a cause of concern for India.

Echoing the Sino-Pakistan, countries held joint naval drills, Sea Guardian 2020 in the Arabian Sea in January. Besides increase the interoperability, China showcased its defence capabilities by deploying an air defense destroyer, frigate and a replenishment ship in the drills 10. Detention of Chinese ship Dai Cui Yun in February, carrying an autoclave used for production of long-range ballistic missiles or Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) along the Kandla port heading towards Port Qasim by Indian officials only reiterated Sino-Pakistan nuclear cooperation. China falsely declared it as an industrial dryer 11.

Posing fresh threat to Indian security, China is now reported to have deployed 12 underwater drones to collect oceanographic data. This information is subsequently transmitted to hydrographic survey and oceanic ships operating in the region 8. While China feigns ignorance, in 2016, Dragon seized US Navy submarine drone in the SCS. Though nations are free to operate in the International Waters, countries can seize or shootdown the manned or unmanned vehicles operating in their territorial waters without authorization. Intrusions by China into the IOR has become a regular feature. In December Indian Navy chased away Chinese fleet entering the IOR region. China’s aggressive adventurism and abduction of a 21-year old Indian national from Arunachal Pradesh by PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) by transgressing into Indian territory during the Corona pandemic outbreak has only bolstered fears of China’s coercive expansionism 9.

Stalls discussions on Corona pandemic at UNSC

Holding the presidency of the UNSC, China blocked discussions on pandemic during the entire month of March. While outbreak of Ebola was discussed in 2014, evading all responsibility, China shot back that public health emergency is beyond the “scope and mandate of UNSC”. Instead acting on Pakistan’s behest China’s permanent representative at UN raked up Kashmir issue. But characteristically refrained from reprimanding Pakistan which has violated the UN Secretary General’s call for global ceasefire to strengthen the efforts to fight the Corona pandemic.

Responding to requests by 9 of the 10 non-permanent members, Dominican Republic, President of UNSC for the month of April convened a special session yesterday to discuss Corona pandemic. In an apparent dig, US ambassador, Kelly Craft called for “complete transparency and the timely sharing of public health data and information within the international community”. Beijing shot back that pandemic was a “global challenge and required cooperation and mutual support” and no country should be made a “scape goat12. The session ended inconclusively, as Russia towed China’s line and subsumed by petty politics, nations failed to pull up China in unison. China’s global heft and its deft coercive diplomacy has once again prevailed and Nations are humbled into silence.



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Sunday 5 April 2020

Dark under belly of the Corona virus ‘super spreaders’


Indian government’s audacious measures

Four days into the 21-day lockdown, the spread of Chinese Corona Virus (CCV) infections, in India appeared to have slowed down. This not only injected new confidence but boosted Government’s morale working towards flattening of the curve. Meanwhile, a sudden outburst of orchestrated mass movement of internal migrants, especially in the National Capital Region (NCR) triggered fresh fears of proliferation of infection. A swift evacuation of migrants from the state border after initial bungling, more or less allayed wild fears of a plausible community transmission. By and large, India has been treading on right path mobilising all its resources to contain the dreaded pandemic. Doctors, Innovators, Scientists, Epidemiologists, Health workers, Medical technicians, Sanitation workers and Police have been working round the clock monitoring minute developments to curb the transmission.
Days after reports of Corona infection in China, without waiting for WHO’s emergency measure, India evacuated its citizens from Wuhan and other countries from second week of January. India began thermal screening of inbound passengers and constituted a High-Level Group of Ministers (GoM) to review management of the CCV and held its first meeting on Feb 3rd. Staying ahead of the curve, India averted import of infection from the Corona epicentre, Wuhan. Committed to stem the viral spread, India announced an unprecedented lockdown. Despite concerns of huge economic losses, people from all walks of life cooped and favourably responded to the Government’s plea. WHO and other international agencies hailed India’s audacious and bold measures and extolled the stupendous determination displayed by India in dealing the CCV pandemic. At a time, when the hopes of defeating the pandemic have brightened, there has been a sudden spurt in infected cases.
The sudden rise in CCV positive cases set alarm bells ringing reminding India of the famous patient 31 of South Korea, who accounted for 80% of the infections in the country. The patient who has flown to Seoul attended the Shincheonji Church of Jesus and infected hundreds of parishioners causing dramatic increase of infections in an entire county. Church members avoided testing and didn’t follow any precautions leading to a community spread. However, through meticulous contact tracing and rigorous testing, South Korea managed to control the infectious spread of the virus. Mayor of the Seoul sued the Church and the Church leader tendered an apology for inflicting a “great calamity”. The case of the super spreader of South Korea surfaced as stark reminder for the World to emulate.

Being a densely populated country, as a prophylactic measure, Prime Minister Modi cancelled the Holi Milan on March 4th. Other state governments quickly followed the suit. On March 4th Delhi government ordered the closure of primary schools and by March 12th invoking Epidemic Diseases Act, 1897 prohibited all sports gatherings, including IPL matches, conferences and seminars more than 200 people. In subsequent orders, Delhi government cut down the size of gathering to not more than 50. On March 22nd, ordered a complete lockdown.

India announced travel advisories imposing visa bans from China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, South Korea and Japan on March 3rd. On March 11th India imposed ban on all visas (except diplomatic, official, UN organisations, projects and employment) starting from March 13th.

Extending solidarity to the Government’s efforts temples in India announced to close and suspend routine rituals until further notice on March 14th. With pandemic showing no respite, bolstering safeguard measures, Prime Minister Modi launched voluntary self-imposed voluntary, “Janta curfew” reinforcing the need for social distancing on March 22nd. On 23rd first death from Telangana with a connection to a religious congregation was reported. Stepping up preventive measures, Modi declared a 21-day lockdown on Mar 24th.  Country has come to a grinding halt. Poor and lower-middle class, who were the worst effected sections too complied with government’s restrictions. Things started falling place and the infection rates began to plummet.

But from March 30th, there has been sudden spurt in Corona positive cases from 18 states. Till March 24th, North Eastern states remained infection free. All the new infections in Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh are linked to Tablighi meet. Ever since there has been a whopping increase in infections from every corner of the country. All the latest infections are traced to an annual religious congregation of Tabligi Jamaat (TJ) held from March 13th-15th at Banglewali Mosque, Delhi. Precisely, a day after, Delhi government announced ban on gatherings more than 200 people. Some reports claimed that nearly 8000 assembled for the event held in a six-storey building. 275 foreign nationals including 172 from Indonesia,36 from Kyrgyzstan, 21 from Bangladesh, 12 from Malaysia, 7 from Algeria, 2 each from Afghanistan and the US, one each from France, Tunisia, Belgium and Italy 1 entered India on a tourist visa to take part in the annual, Ijtema.

Tablighi Jamaat: Origin

Given the enormous heft and popularity garnered by the TJ it is imperative to fathom its motives and origins. Tablighi, an offshoot of the Deobandi movement has been an Islamic revival movement, more puritanical and worked towards reformation of Islam at grass- root level urging Muslims to practice all the six basic principles of Islam and practice religion the way Prophet Muhammed did. Influenced by the Wahabhi ideology of Saudi Arabia, Muhammed Ilyas al-Khandlawi of the Mewat region in 1926 launched TJ to spread Deobandi Movement. Mewat is dominated by Meos sect of Rajputs who converted to Islam from 12th to 16th century. But practiced some Hindu rituals. TJ was created in response to a surge in Hindu Bhakti Movement that tried to rejuvenate the nativity among the Hindus converted into Muslims. TJ steadily established madrassas across the country reinforcing puritanism. The movement eventually spread to the entire subcontinent, Raiwand in Lahore region of Pakistan has the largest Markuz and Bangladesh second largest. The Banglewali Mosque, known as Nizamuddin Markuz is the international headquarters of the Tablighi Movement.

From 1946 TJ started new branches in the US, Europe and across the Central Asia after the collapse of Soviet Union.  Known to be a pietistic organisation, it sends preachers across the globe to bring back Muslims to the Orthodox ways. With the large-scale funding from Saudi, TJ grew extensively since the 1970s. Tablighi Mosque in Dewsbury, England subsidized by World Muslim League serves as the European headquarters since 1978. TJ operates from Deobandi and Wahhabi Mosques. Annual Ijtemas at Lahore, Dhaka and Delhi are among the largest congregations second to the Hajj.

Terror Links

Kafeel Ahmed, arrested for failed bombing attack on Glasgow airport, Shehzaad Tanveer and Mohammed Siddique Khan associated with 7/7 are known regulars of Tablighi movement. Majority of the European Muslims involved in terrorist activities are found to be involved in the proselytization activities of TJ. According to French authorities nearly 80% of the terror associates are found be associated with TJ.  TJ is also active in North Africa (Algeria, Morocco), East Africa (Sudan, Kenya and Somalia). Dawa wa Tabligh, an offshoot is prosecuted for terrorist attacks in Casablanca synagogue. Morocco authorities in the past have sentenced Tablighi members for terrorist attacks.

TJ is not known to associate with any particular sect. It has close links with Pakistan’s Deobandi Pakistani Jamiat-e-Ulema Islami (JUI), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and Saudi Arabi Wahabi clerics. TJ has been recruiter and sympathiser of terror activities. It never condemned the violence perpetrated by radical Islam elements. Though TJ’s ideology never professes violence, it provided impetus for joining the extremist Islamist groups and led to proliferation of lone wolves. Fred Burton and Scott Stewart in their article- Tablighi Jamaat: An Indirect line for terrorism, wrote, “At face value, TJ is a peaceful egalitarian and devotional movement that stresses individual faith and overall spiritual development. In a sense, TJ is a widespread training system that urges average Muslims to examine their own lives and become involved in calling their fellow Muslims back to orthodox Islam3.

The high and mighty of Pakistan, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s father, Muhammed Rafique Tarar, who served as acting President and Pakistan’s former intelligence chief (DG-ISI) Javed Nasir, mastermind of the 1993 Bombay serial blasts have been active associates of TJ. TJ grew astronomically under the dictatorship of President Zia-ul-Haq. Members involved in the military coup against Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto government were part of Jihad bi-al Saif (Jihad through sword) an offshoot of TJ. TJ served as recruitment centre of Islamist radicals during the Afghan war.
Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), founded by TJ members, defeated Soviets in Afghanistan, exported jihad to J&K and extended assistance to Osama bin Laden. HuJI terrorists carried out 2006 Varanasi bombings, Delhi high court blasts and its members are also involved in Mecca Masjid bombing. HuJI later transformed into Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM). Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) have branched out from HuJI. Believed to be largely apolitical, TJ announced support to Muthaida Majlis-e-Amal, which formed provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and implemented Muslim agenda. This led to resurgence of Afghan Taliban and Pakistan Taliban or TTP 4. HuJI, HuM and JeM are internationally proscribed terrorist organisations.

TJ is now slowly taking over the moderate Barelvi mosques. Tablighi leader, Maulana Umarji and his followers are believed to have torched the Sabarmati Express with 58 karsevaks returning from Ayodhya in 2002. Back in 2013, Ajit Doval, then former director of Intelligence Bureau (IB) and current NSA said, “there is a culture of secretism in the organisation (TJ) which develops suspicion 2. Clearly, people in Tablighi mosques are mostly seen sitting in groups of 4-6 to discuss teachings. Until one is really close, all one could hear is a murmur of whispering voices.

Working as sheep in wolves clothing, TJ would send young people to terrorist camps for training. Hence, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan banned the organisation. It has the reputation of being called, “antechamber of fundamentalism” and “supremacist movement” for facilitating a platform for meeting of extremists. Tablighi doesn’t have formal registration and never keeps record of the individuals associated with it.  TJ made deep inroads into the US reaching out to the immigrant population from South Asia. Tablighi members floated conspiracy theories implicating Jews for the 9/11 terrorist attack. To influence American foreign policy, Tablighis are now on a mission to covert the Afro-American population 5.

TJ spearheaded Islamisation of Sri Lanka. The two other Islamic groups in the country are Jamaat-i-Islami and the Thowheed Jamaat 14. Seminaries of TJ have been instrumental in injecting fundamentalism to the younger generation of Muslims in the island. Mohammed Muhsin Nilam who fled to Syria to join ISIS and got killed in Raqqa was introduced to the neo-fundamentalism at TJ. Nilam worked with Zahran Hashim who carried out Colombo serial blasts on Easter eve. He started Sri Lanka National Thowheed Jamaat Sri Lanka, as franchise of Tamilnadu Thowheed Jamaat 13.

Visa Conduit

Widely known for its missionary activities, terrorists often used TJ to obtain visas and cross borders. Malaysian Analyst Farish Noor in his book, “Islam on Move” wrote- Hamir Mohammed, Sudanese member of Laskhar-e-Toiba (LeT) obtained a visa to Pakistan as member of Tablighi, similarly Somalian Muhammed Sulayman Barre tried to enter Pakistan from India as Tablighi associate, Commander of the Mujahedeen Battalion of Al-Qaeda in Bosnia Herzegovina travelled from Bosnia to Pakistan, Abdul Bukhary, a Saudi national who is on watchlist entered Nizamuddin Markuz claiming to be member of Tablighi, an overt missionary. After 9/11, TJ has come under scanner after it was linked with four high profile terror cases. As per latest Pew Research Centre’s report, Tablighi is operating in over 150 countries with 150 to 200 million affiliated members. While TJ’s complicity in terrorism is beyond any iota of doubt, it smartly evaded scrutiny donning the mantle of proselytization.

Super Spreaders of Corona

After a meteoric increase in the CCV infections, Iran shut down holiest sites and Saudi Arabia imposed banned prayers at Mecca and Medina. Countries like Turkey, UAE, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq closed mosques. But Malaysian TJ held a congregation of over 15,000 from February 27th to March 1st. It was attended by participants from Brunei, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore. This event accounted for nearly all the infections in Brunei. Singapore reported more cases after the event.
Despite an advisory, Pakistan went ahead with itejma with a congregation of 250,000 which triggered a chain reaction of infection. Pakistan refused to impose a ban on mass gatherings and congregational prayers. Guaranteeing safety of all participants Deobandi cleric claimed that Prophet Mohammed has shared the cure for Corona virus in his dreams.  Infection rates in Pakistan are now spiralled out of control and most of them are rooted to TJ. Participants of Pakistan’s itejma from Palestine and Kyrgyzstan are now tested positive for Corona 6. Subjugation of the civilian administration to the Mullahs and the defiance of the TJ clerics advocating isolationism and religious puritanism has kickstarted an infection chain in the region.

Steeped in a regressive ideology that refuses to fathom the consequences of exponential spread of Corona virus, TJ has gained the notoriety of ‘super spreaders’ of infection. Unlike other countries, India has exercised supreme caution. But the gains accrued by India’s proactive approach are now imperilled by the TJ which has violated government orders of social distancing endangering public health.

Attendees of the TJ congregation who have now spread across the country carried the infection to hinterlands triggering an infection bomb. As of now 960 foreigners linked to TJ, who entered India on a tourist visa to carry out missionary activities are blacklisted. Owing to sudden spurt in infections, people in general are outraged by the cluster of the CCV infection that brewed in TJ congregation. To stem the infection, government appealed participants of Nizamuddin congregation to come forward for testing. But TJ members turned a deaf ear, subsequently, health authorities intensified contact tracing and manhunt. As of today, officials have traced 600 more foreigners hiding in various mosques across the country 7.  Days after the conclusion of the congregations, several thousand remained holed up the mosque. Turning down the requests of the Delhi police, TJ refused to cooperate. Maulana Saad of TJ agreed to vacate Nizamuddin Markuz after NSA Ajit Doval met him. Since then, over 2200 people were evacuated from Nizamuddin Markuz and quarantined.

Overwhelming public outrage, Delhi Crime police lodge a FIR against Maulana Saad and Nizamuddin Markuz Management under Sec 188 of Epidemic Diseases Act 8. The report says that Delhi police apprised Maulana of the contagious Corona virus and directed him to send back foreigners. But he paid no attention. Instead, in a video message, of March 23rd, he asked TJ members to defy social distancing norms and attend religious prayers. Terming this as an attempt to divide, isolate Muslims and prevent them from meeting each other. Instigating them further he added, “If you start listening to doctors and stop doing Namaaz and stop meeting people..yes, so you are sick, then pray to 70,000 angels. Why are you not having faith in angels? How will you be cured by taking medicines from doctors if you cannot be saved by 70,000 angels? This is not time to stay away and be afraid.”

A Corona positive patient who stayed at Markuz for three-weeks revealed that thousand men ate together in batches from single big plate, lived in unhygienic conditions which had poor sanitation and drew water from a small pool for rituals of washing before prayers. Hence it is no surprise they became super spreaders of the infection 9. Evacuated TJ members who were quarantined, breached all norms of civility, paraded semi-naked, passed lewd comments, held group namaaz, spitted on the doctors, police to infect them, demanded special food and refused to cooperate10. According to some sources, an estimated 13,000 people have attended the meet. Of them around 8000 are traced as of now.

Public health workers visiting the minority dominated regions for screening in the wake of the Corona outbreak are attacked by stones. Incidents of stone pelting and attacks were reported from Bangalore, Indore, Madhubani and other areas. In Hyderabad, relatives of patient who died of Corona virus attacked doctors 11. The sickening mentality and unimaginable hostility displayed by the super spreaders at a time when country is battling a health emergency has left country aghast. This abject disregard and brazenness in flouting every rule of government bordering on repugnant hate is creating new suspicions. People are raising valid questions- is this a well-planned conspiracy to sabotage India’s fight against Corona? 

Islamophobia

Strengthening these suspicions, the usual suspects who led the anti-CAA protests accusing government of “Islamophobia” are demanding revocation of FIR against Maulana Saad who is on a run. Sharjeel Imam, who advocated secession of North Eastern states from India, Jamia Coordination Committee, Muslim Students of JNU extended solidarity to TJ. Terming the punitive measures of authorities akin to “bigotry and Islamophobic fantasies of the government”, they deliberately gave a communal spin to whole issue.

Faith above everything

Exuding kinship, Islamist organisations quickly jumped to rescue their co-religionists. Recusing them of transgressions, the cabal is playing victimhood card. Not to be left behind, the Western media agencies are fuelling the narrative of Islamophobia.  Instead of pulling up the Maulana for unleashing a health catastrophe, springing to their feet, expressing camaraderie secular brigade joined the chorus in exculpating TJ of the calamitous conspiracy.

Italy paid a heavy price for its “political correctness” and virtue signalling. Scared of being construed a racist, instead of isolating people coming from China, Mayor of Florence launched, “Hug a Chinese”, a day after WHO declared Corona, a Public Health Emergency. TJ wreaked havoc, India’s efforts to contain Corona. Leader of the South Korean fringe church group apologised for the virus spread. Enduring the economic hardships, vulnerable sections of India respected norms of social distancing. A country of 1.3 billion have promised themselves to keep the country healthy. The least, Maulana could have done is tender an unconditional apology for setting off an infection time bomb. Corona Pandemic has thus far unravelled, China’s attempts to inflict social harm on countries. Any attempt by TJ to hide beneath the façade of Islamophobia, would embolden people’s suspicions.
It is time to dump the dubious “Islamophobia” chorus. Eternal victimisation, appeasement, political correctness has emboldened a section of society irrevocably. This section continues to flagrantly violate laws. Exploiting India’s soft state, influential global organisations are flouting all rules. The sense of entitlement of certain section of people and their supporting global organisations must be ended.



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