Weaponization of Water by China

Use of trade, rare-earth minerals, limiting imports, tourism as strategic weapons by China is well documented. But Middle Kingdom’s vivacity to use water as a political weapon evaded international attention thus far. China used water as a coercive weapon against India during the 73-day long Doklam stand-off in 2017. China suspended hydrological data sharing of Brahmaputra waters as a tool to leverage its position. Politicization of water related data exacerbated India’s fears about China’s dam construction spree across Brahmaputra which flows from Tibet to India and Bangladesh. China’s opacity, reluctance to share hydrological data and unannounced release of water caused floods in Indian states of Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh in the past. India sought to have an agreement, but China spurned India’s initiative.

Finally, India and China signed two MoUs in 2013 and an accord in 2014 obligating China to sharer hydrological data from three upstreaming monitoring stations in Tibet between May 5^th and 15^th every year ⁴. India regularly pays for this data and despite the payment, it withheld the data on the pretext of some technical reasons in the wake of the Doklam standoff. As a result, though North-East region received less than average precipitation during Monsoon season, unannounced opening of flood gates by China inundated the region from Assam to Uttar Pradesh, killing 71 people and displacing over 40,000. While Chinese officials refuted India’s claims of withholding the data, Bangladesh, later confirmed to have received data from China during the Doklam standoff.

Playing straight from its book of coercive diplomacy, China inflicted severe damage on India. This classic case of use of non-military weapon to gain an advantage have inadvertently exposed Middle Kingdom’s callousness to trigger a humanitarian disaster. A report titled, “Monitoring the Quantity of water flowing through the Upper Mekong through natural (unimpeded) conditions” ⁵ prepared by Eyes on Earth, Inc and Global Environmental Satellite Applications, Inc released on April 10^th, showed how damming of Mekong River has caused drought in the downstream region. This report underpinned China’s propensity to play “dangerous game of water poker”. Close on heels, on April 13^th, a paper titled, “How China turned off the tap on the Mekong River?” ⁶ authored by Brian Eyler interpreted the observations of Eyes on Earth report and put the matters in perspective.

From 1992 to 2018, China built 11 major dams on Mekong river, considered to be second most biodiverse river after Amazon. The seventh largest Asian river passes through six countries including China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam. The relentless dam building pursuit of China in the upper Mekong region has increased the frequency and severity of droughts, drastically altered the bio-diversity, led to extinction of natural flora and fauna in the lower Mekong region. Last year, downstream countries-Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam faced worst drought in the past two decades.

Addressing aggrieved farmers in Cambodia, Wang Yi, Chinese foreign Minister, at 5^th Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) Foreign Ministers meeting, Vientiane, said, we feel the pain. Defending Beijing, he added, despite severe water shortages, China managed to increase water discharge to alleviate impact of the drought. In reality, China received uncommonly high amounts of precipitation from April-September 2019 but reduced the discharge of water to lower riparian states.

As warned by strategists, Mekong river management has close parallels to South China sea dispute where China intends to leverage its control without firing a bullet by controlling the water flows.  According to experts, China has been impounding water in the reservoirs of the dams denying the downstream countries of their due share of water. Through erratic and unannounced opening of the dam gates, China is wreaking havoc in the Mekong basin.

In terms of volume, Stimson estimates that amount of the water collectively stored by 11 dams-built since 1992 till 2018- Manwan, the first dam was commissioned in 1993, followed by Dachaosan, Jinghong, Xiaowan, Nuozhadu, Gongguoquiao, Miaowei, Huangdeng, Dahuaqioa, Lidi, Wunonglong is approximately equal to water in Chesapeake Bay which has a containment area of 166,534 km2 and covers six states-New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia. Since the operationalisation of fifth dam, Nuozhadu, with largest reservoir in 2012, the water woes of downstream countries worsened.

China has sixth largest water resources in terms of volume. But due to unequal distribution of water resources, parts of the country experience scarcity. Southern China is relatively wet while Northern regions like Beijing and Tianjin are dry and face severe water shortages. India and China, the two largest countries in the continent are severely water stressed. The per capita water availability in China is per capita 2075m3, one third of the global average. India’s is more stressed than China with average water availability of 1427 m3 per person. They are ranked 120 and 138 respectively³.

Water is extremely crucial for the economic development. Invasion of Tibet in part is driven by China’s strategic ambition of attaining water security.  Tibet, considered as the Third Pole is replete of enviable water resources. It is source of major river systems of the region-Indus, Mekong, Brahmaputra, Ganga, Irrawaddy, Salween, Yangtze, Huang He. China regards water as a sovereign resource and strongly detests the idea of sharing water with the downstream countries. It closely guards the data related to water usage, storage and deems hydrological operation as a state secret.

Home to 1.4 billion, China always accorded highest priority to water security. To keep the wheels of economic development running, China developed a water policy. China shares 42 transboundary water courses including lakes with neighbouring countries and hence its water policy is at the core of Asia’s water security. China the upper riparian state, advocates the Harmon Doctrine which confers the upper riparian state absolute right to use the waters unilaterally irrespective of lower riparian concerns. China is not party to international water sharing conventions-1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Water Resources and Helsinki Rules on the Uses of the Waters of International Rivers. Nor did it enter any water sharing agreement with any country¹.

For sustainable development and equitable sharing of water resources in the Mekong basin, the US, Japan and World Bank instituted inter-governmental organisation, Mekong River Commission (MRC) in 1995. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand the lower Mekong region members joined MRC. China is not part of MRC.

China treats South East Asia as its backyard. To wield paramount influence over the region, China used Mekong cooperation to foster nebulous game of Hydro diplomacy. Undermining the relevance of MRC, China initiated, Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism in 2014 comprising all six countries. Funding an extremely lavish building for Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen China earned its subjugation.

Tonle Sap Lake the largest fresh water lake in Cambodia, a potential fishing zone, ground for migratory birds and diverse flora is now showing all the signs of depleting biodiversity. The lake which thrives on hydrological phenomenon of monotonal flood-pulsed system naturally expands to six times its size in wet season and resizes back to its original size in dry season has been disrupted by unabated dam construction on Mekong ⁷. Thousands of fishermen and farmers who depend on the lake are now deprived of their livelihoods. Sen who has moved into Chinese orbit and inked agreements to construct hydropower dams on Mekong in Cambodia has turned into a mute spectator.

Nearly one-third of Laos economy runs on power and mining exports. Any shutdown of water supply, will bring the land-locked country to its knees. Hence, instead of challenging China’s erratic water and unannounced water release is urging Beijing to release water. China cultivated several pro-China environmental groups to deal with the discontent among the citizens distressed by depleting water levels of River Chiang Saeng in Thailand. Last year, the water levels shrunk to record low level; about 126.44 mt of river height was reportedly lost at gauge. China Embassy in Thailand argued, “Frequent floods in Mekong basin are the effects of global climate change”. Deflecting the blame, it added, construction of a cascade of dams is an effective measure against climate change. “The hydropower dams which release water during the dry season and store in the wet season are able to adjust the levels of Lancang-Mekong River”². Under normal conditions, water flow is normal in wet season and discharge is released during dry season. Overtly, China talks of win-win cooperation, the favourite punch line of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), and shared common interests, but it has been turning off the taps at will. This erratic water release has disrupted natural seasonal fluctuations and farming activities and downstream regions are reeling under severe drought.

Vietnam, which has a territorial dispute with China and located at the far end of Mekong basin is worst affected. Rice farmers of Vietnam are bearing the brunt of China’s water diplomacy. Distressed by China’s water hegemony, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia have stalled some hydropower projects under the BRI. Disregarding needs of other countries, China launched a project to boost trans-national navigation ⁹. Ruthless dredging has changed the course of river, polluted the rivers and damaged the delicate ecological balance. Study by Stimson, indicates that the hydropower dams across Mekong river in China rarely use them for power generation. The huge reservoirs are meant for water storage.

China is increasingly building storage dams with potential for flood-control and irrigation, instead of run-of-river dams (where is returned to river after use), across Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) and controlling water flows to India and Bangladesh.

Recent report clearly underscores Chinese intentions of using water as a leverage against smaller riparian members. China is intent on attaining greater self-reliance in terms of water security, promulgated, “Three Red Lines Policy” for stringent water resources management; to control total water use, improve water use efficiency and control water pollution. To address regional water imbalances as envisioned by Mao Zedong back in 1952, China has taken up a gigantic water diversion project South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) expected to cost $62 billion. As of 2014, China is reported to have spent $79 billion on SNWTP designed to connect Yangtze and Yellow river (both Chinese rivers). A central water diversion project of 1400km long connecting the Han river in Hubei province to Beijing and Tianjin is completed in 2014. Now plans are afoot to use other trans-border rivers like Yarlung Tsangpo, the Nu and Lancang (Mekong) for future transfer projects ⁸.

It is time the lower riparian rivers seek transparency with regard to hydrological data of Mekong river. But China effectively weakened the solidarity between the Mekong members by co-opting them. While the members scramble to evolve a collective strategy, China is vigorously using water as coercive stick. Similarly, India and Bangladesh should make appeal for transparency in sharing information and curb China’s maverick use of water resource as a strategic weapon.

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