India @ 70 : Land of Contradictions

Seventy years is a good amount of time. Completion of seventy years of existence as an independent country with 1.25 billion population and spectacular diversity is an occasion of celebration and introspection as well. India the largest democracy, cradle of World’s oldest civilizations is a young country. Thousands of freedom fighters through their selfless sacrifice drove away the oppressive forces culminating in liberation of India from the colonial shackles. The British having sapped India’s vital resources and emptied its treasury left the country to fend for itself anticipating that country will soon crumble under the burden of disunity. Putting rest to Winston Churchill’s prophesies and ignominious references “Power will go to rascals, rogues and freebooters. All leaders will be low caliber and men of straw. They’ll have sweet tongues and silly hearts. They will fight amongst themselves for power and the countries will be lost in squabbles. A day will come when even air and water will be taxed”, India at 70 is alive, kicking epitomizing democracy and pluralism. Unfortunately, bloodied partition was inflicted upon India even before it could experience the joy of painstakingly earned freedom. Independent India despite facing numerous internal and external threats endured and bravely defended sovereignty. Though there have been strains in the democracy at various stages like the dark phases of Emergency, India bounced back after every fall. 

Independent India’s journey so far has been a roller coaster ride swinging earnestly through periods of despair and hope. The aspects of exulted success have been overshadowed by tumultuous failures. As India asserted its new position as emerging space giant with a successful spree of satellite launches and phenomenal maiden Mars Mission, the technological ineptness of DRDO which failed to develop an indigenous assault rifle created doubts about India’s scientific mettle. India’s potential as fastest growing economy in the world has turned it into a lucrative investment hub but India’s contemptible ease of doing business lead to low rate of project realization. Low-cost technologies are making India medical tourism hub even as shoddy maintenance and administration of government hospitals is claiming lives of millions. As per IMF estimates for year 2017, India has third largest GDP based on purchasing power parity but it continues to slide down the rankings of Human Development Index, reflecting the glaring increase in inequalities. Similarly, India’s low Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) which declined marginally in recent years and the low sex ratio are a mockery to India’s standing among community of nations.

The unique recognition scrupulously earned by budding young Indian scientists of Team Indus made India incredibly proud. It is one among the five teams qualified to compete in $30 billion Google-sponsored competition to operate robotic spacecraft on Moon by 2018. Discovery of massive galaxy super cluster “Saraswati”, 600 million lightyears away by team of astrophysicists from Inter University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics and Indian Institute of Science and Education Research (IISER) has been source of immense pride and joy. On the contrary, Indian Universities slipping in the latest QS World university rankings raised concerns about the standards of Indian education. Contrasting pictures of hope and frustration continue to haunt Indian scenario. The reports of low employability pale the prospective advantage of India’s rich demographic dividend. At the same time, a boom in start-up culture spear-headed by young, enthusiastic, and dynamic youngsters has instilled new hope about the new generation. Interestingly while a surge in the new breed of entrepreneurs is imparting new energy into system, rampant corruption perpetrated by the veritable politician-bureaucrat-police is crippling progress of the country. The list of such contraries that evoke a sense of desperation and instilled hope are endless. These contrasting developments inadvertently divided Indians into eternal pragmatists and skeptics.

India successfully drove away colonial forces, but stigmatized Indian mind still longs for a western sanction and approval. Unlike countries who obtained independence around the same period, India hasn’t forsaken the colonial vestiges like bureaucracy and eerily adopted their institutional legacies. It never attempted to revamp the systems to cater to the needs and requirements of Indian society. Even after seven decades of independence we still religiously adopt the judicial laws, housing systems, health care and education introduced by the imperialists. The colonial hangover still has a larger overbearing on the Indian mind, thought and intellect. Moving forward, Indian mind slowly began to acknowledge anything foreign as superior and began importing defence technologies and advanced scientific expertise. Enslaved by colonial hangover, Indians are now seeking approval of the west to acknowledge the epics, precincts of vast Indian heritage. Any advocate/ believer of epics is labelled and chastised as a religious bigot. For decades, the west-influenced thought process dominated the Indian realm. But slowly an alternative narrative is emerging and trying to reclaim its space. Aside, jostling of contrasting thought processes, a silent group is toiling hard to assert Indian identities. A kind of commotion is silently brewing within the Indian society turning it into a breeding ground for contrarian views and perceptions. Sadly, the colonial hangover still besieges Indian academic institutes. It is appalling that sections of Indian society have no qualms in calling ‘India as land of degenerates’. For them, India is all about sati, untouchability, caste system. Such is the power of the colonial imprint, that thousands of educated Indian elite still tend to magnify the mildews of the past.

Currently Indian domain is witnessing new hope amidst apathy, gender discrimination, widening societal gaps and poor governance. Though things are under control, domestic front is heated up by movements for separate state, unrelenting insurgency and infiltration bids into Kashmir, states exploring legal options for separate flags, protests against imposition of Hindi, Maoist attacks and political killings. Even external threats are looming large with the possibility of a two and half war scenario. Millions are exasperated by years of neglect, lack of infrastructure and poor governance. But fortunately, the aspiring Indian class harbor beacon of hope. Unlike in the past, for a change, India’s top most hierarchical positions are occupied by people from modest origins with dynasticism forced to retreat. As of now, the voices of resilient Indians hopeful of India’s resurgence are steering it infusing renewed vigor, giving wings to its dreams.

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Sino-Thai engagement culminating in construction of Asia’s Panama Canal

While China’s ominous investments in Sri Lanka and Pakistan are grabbing headlines, China’s carrot and stick policy towards Thailand needs considerable attention. Yet another ASEAN conference successfully concluded last week at Manila and once again ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) countries failed to bring out anti-Beijing resolution. ASEAN’s meek response to hegemonic China despite Beijing’s unremitting belligerence in South China Sea (SCS) reflects the growing discord within the ASEAN economic grouping. ASEAN which was painstakingly built as bulwark against China, is now wilting under the torment of Chinese divisive tactics. Apparent fissures inflicted by Chinese coercive economic diplomacy and muscle power of Beijing has eroded the solidarity of ASEAN countries. Despite China’s penetrating aggression, being the single largest trading partner and largest investor in ASEAN countries, voices of protests within the group are seldom addressed. As of now, China’s relations with ASEAN countries is rather complex. Each country has a unique relation with China. Beijing managed wooed Cambodia and Laos with massive infrastructure investments. Besides trade and investments, Sino-Burma relations are leveraged by domestic insurgencies with Burmese militant groups having safe havens in Chinese territories.  High-income group countries Brunei and Singapore are slowly trying to reduce their dependence on China. Beijing’s relations with middle-income group countries -Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are steered by increased economic activity and infrastructure initiatives.

Thailand is the second-largest economy in ASEAN. But of late, it is registering low levels of GDP growth and has history of buckling under international financial crisis. Ever since Asian financial crisis of 1998-99, Thai economy failed to regain its original momentum. Exports slid perceptibly, manufacturing sector failed to bounce back. Thai economy is now thriving on resurgent tourism and services sectors. By perpetually adopting “bamboo bending with the wind” kind of diplomacy, Thailand uniquely maintained its sovereignty and independence during the colonial and cold war era. Since 1945 Thailand shifted its orientation towards US. Boisterous economic and strategic rise of China has posed Thailand with a challenge of choosing between Washington and Beijing. With US retreating from this part of the World and an assertive China looming large over the region, Thailand was prompted to make a choice. China and Thailand established diplomatic relations in 1975 which steadily expanded with time. Though Thai military juntas had strong ties with Washington, America’s receding presence in South East Asia prompted Thai establishment to shift allegiances. Moreover, unlike other countries in the region, Thailand had no territorial disputes with China and hence Thailand eagerly joined hands with China. Till 1999, American has been major weapons supplier for Thailand. Thai currency plummeted during financial crisis as American purchases became more expensive. Thailand began to look for other affordable options and eventually settled for Chinese supplies setting stage for enhanced military engagement. Both countries began joint military exercises in 2005 marking 30 years of diplomatic relations. Since 2006, balancing of relations between China and US became difficult for Thailand. By 2009, China replaced US as Thailand’s largest export market and soon Chinese FDI dominated established investors from US, Japan and Europe. Thailand also experienced a surge in Chinese tourists by 12%.

Thailand’s relations with US further weakened after the US refused to recognize and endorse the military government following a coup in 2014. While the west was highly critical of military junta, China endorsed the coup. Burdened by a stagnant economy, military generals offered several concessions to China. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha approved purchase of three submarines, 34 armored personnel carriers and 28 tanks worth $1billion from China (1). Gradually military cooperation has become corner stone of Sino-Thailand relations with Thailand’s boosted military spending after 2014 purchasing military hardware from China. In 2015, Thai and Chinese air forces conducted first joint exercises, and navies participated in joint drill “Blue Strike” in 2016. As US weaned away from Thailand to force military junta to reinstate democratic government, China reinvigorated its relations with Thailand. China eventually displaced Japan as Thailand’s largest investor in 2015. Cognizant of Thailand’s strategic location, which is dubbed as gateway to South east Asia, China vigorously rallied to boost its economic, trade, military with Thailand.

Thailand reciprocated China by repatriating Uighur militants and political dissidents in 2015. But China was irked by Thailand’s inordinate delay in approving the $5.5 billion high-speed rail project connecting China’s southern province of Kunming with Laos and Bangkok, a regional connectivity project under the BRI (Belt Road Initiative). Indicating its displeasure, China abstained from inviting Prime Minister Prayuth for the BRI summit at Beijing. Intimidated by diplomatic snub, Prayuth invoked the article 44, of Thai constitution, to circumvent the legislative body (parliament) and expedited the project. Through its “shame offensive tactics” China invariably compelled Thai government to fall in line.

China buoyed by geopolitical ambitions, determined to emerge as the regional superpower, unleashed quintessential tool of water diplomacy in South East Asia. Beijing revved up engagement with countries Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand through which river Mekong flows. Mekong is dubbed as Amazon of Asia. In 1995, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam signed the Mekong River Commission (MRC) with Myanmar and China upstream countries as dialog partners. Interestingly, China the upper riparian country of Mekong evaded from being part of MRC but managed to have unparalleled control over the waters by constructing numerous dams along the course of river in its territory. Statistical reports indicate that China uses more than half of total waters of the river against 16% by the lower four riparian countries. China has dubious strategies for Mekong river. Aside, availing copious amounts of Mekong waters, obsessed with dam building China clinched numerous hydroelectric dam construction projects. Thus, Chinese companies besides enormously benefitting from infrastructure projects reaped dollars by selling electricity to respective countries. Unmindful of environmental concerns, China built several dams in all the four riparian countries despite mounting protests from locals. Stalling of the humongous Myitsone dam in Myanmar amidst growing protests by locals’ mirrors brewing anti-Chinese sentiments towards China financed dams. 

Apart from the financial benefits, China aspired to convert the longest flowing river into largest shipping lane for Chinese trade. To facilitate swift shipping cargo, China entered into agreement with Myanmar, Laos and Thailand for blasting rocks and reefs in Mekong river in 2000. Disregarding environmental concerns like changing of river course, destruction of aquatic habitat and reefs, China carried out first phase of blasting in 2002. But was forced to stop in 2003 as reef blasting potentially aggravated territorial dispute between Thailand and Laos. China’s dam building spree had reduced catchment areas for fishing, reduced water flows to downstream countries, caused displacement of several people and threatened their livelihoods. Reports now indicate that intense damming of Mekong river made the lower riparian countries flood-prone.

China’s renewed outreach towards Thailand’s military regime can be ascribed to Beijing’s intentions of developing the isthmus of Kra in Southern Thailand into an “international golden waterway”. Interestingly, ambitious Chinese idea found semblance with plans of retired Thai military generals, academicians, businessmen who revived the idea of building a long canal across Southern Thailand connecting Pacific Ocean with Indian Ocean. Indeed, Chinese military first elaborated on this idea in the Naval and Merchant Ships magazine published by China’s largest ship building conglomerate CSSC in late 2015 (2). For long China has been battling fears of choking of its imports at the narrow Malacca Strait in an event of regional escalations by the US. 80% of Chinese imports pass through this choke point. Dubbed as Malacca Dilemma, China aspires to surmount the fears of blockade by the US by bypassing the strait and routing its imports through narrow isthmus of Kra.  Kra links the Gulf of Thailand with Andaman Sea at same latitude as the island of Phuket. New reports indicate that China is keen on building Kra Canal, 135-kilometer-long, 450-meter-wide and 26-meter-deep. The proposed Kra canal would be 800 km south of Bangkok and 200km north of Thailand- Malaysia border. China right now is seriously contemplating on the incipient benefits of Kra canal over Malacca Straits which is the World’s busiest route but infested with pirates. Kra Canal route can reduce the travel time by two-three days or roughly 1200 kilometers.

As of now, Prime Minister Prayuth is opposed to proposal of Kra canal actively supported by the influential grouping of military which formed Thai Canal Association for Study and Development. It is working with Peking University in carrying out feasibility studies which are funded by a Chinese company. China is actively recruiting high power pro-Chinese Thai groups to intensively campaign for garnering public support. With apprehensions about the economic viability of Chinese investments looming large, sections of Thai community want that the project be internationally-funded. The estimated cost of canal development alone is $28 billion which is 8% of Thailand’s GDP and related infrastructure and special economic zone in the surrounding region would cost $22billion. Though the project can create 2.5 million jobs as Chinese financed projects come with an attached clause of employing Chinese personnel locals hardly stand a fair to make a living.

While the project can be a big boost to anemic Thai economy, public support is paltry. Thailand venerates traditional life style and strongly upholds ideas of environmental conservation. Besides, canal construction will have far-reaching implications on the security and sovereignty of Thailand as country will be divided into northern province with overwhelming Buddhist population and Southern province dominated by Malay-Muslims. Canal will create tensions among the ASEAN countries as Singapore might lose its business, indispensability and economic advantage. Development of this mega project will be replete with immense challenges and the hilly terrain of the region can pose formidable obstacles during construction. Above, all the canal will change the economic, financial and geopolitical arena of the region.

While the potential benefits of emerging as regional economic hub can bring prosperity to Thailand but returns are not assured and guaranteed. Unlike the Panama Canal or Suez Canal, Kra Canal has alternative transit route and hence recovering cost of investments will be long drawn. Also, unlike the OECD developmental assistance loans which have nominal interest Chinese loans have higher interest rates. With China’s appetite for resources sinking and economy showing signs of slowing down, shipping traffic might be less revenues may not be on expected lines.  In absence of robust returns from the Kra canal Loan repayment will be an upheaval task for Thailand. Singapore is internationally acclaimed smart transiting hub and to have preferential advantage over Singapore the new port must offer better services. Else it might lose the competitive advantage and go down history as yet another shining example of Chinese debt trap diplomacy. Moreover, with growing risk of conflicts between India and China, Kra Canal can become another region of consternation. In a plausible war like scenario China may not be averse to sending war ships through this canal towards Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

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