Modi-Kishida Deftly Deepen Partnership; Shift Focus to Indo-Pacific Theatre

The 14^thannual India-Japan summit resumed after a gap of three and half years with the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to India on March 19^th. India-Japan summit, scheduled to be held in Guwahati in 2019 could not take place due to anti-CAA protests and pandemic surge in 2020 and 2021 cast a shadow on in person meetings. Besides traveling to Glasgow for the COP 26 after assuming charge, Kishida made his first overseas visit to India as head of the government. During his previous stint as the foreign minister, Kishida last visited India in 2015.

The two-day short visit, marks 70 years of diplomatic relations between India and Japan which comes at a time of a major geopolitical ferment.  Set in the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis, unlike other Quad partners, India adopted a neutral position and eloquently defended its abstention from UN voting on the same. Strategists thus alluded that one of the main aspects of Kishida’s visit would be Russian invasion and rightly so, the Japanese chief cabinet secretary also indicated the same. Ukraine crisis is an important issue where both countries failed to concur. While Japan backed the American position of extreme sanction regime against Russia, India strongly maintained that dialogue is the only way forward and dispatched three tranches of humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Two summit meetings with Quad partners- Japan and Australia- back to back with President Biden’s remarks on India’s “shaky” response to Russian invasion demonstrates that the West strongly wants India to approve their punitive sanctions against Kremlin. Doing a tight diplomatic balancing, India not only repulsed all these attempts but has successfully managed to convince Japan and Australia of its position.

The Joint Statement at the annual summit reads, “the prime ministers have expressed their serious concerns over the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and assessed its broader implications, particularly to Indo-Pacific region. They emphasised that the contemporary global order is based on UN charter, international law and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of the states…. They reiterated their call for an immediate cessation of violence and noted that there was no other choice but the path of dialogue and diplomacy for resolution of the conflict”.

Ironically, while the US is keen on eliciting India’s response to European security framework through its ally Japan, Prime Minister Modi has rightly shifted the focus of the summit to robust economic cooperation. Enunciating that both countries must work towards averting a Ukraine kind of situation in the Indo-Pacific, leaders discussed common threat in the region.

Addressing the shared concerns, both countries underscored the need for “stable and prosperous world, based on a rules-based order …. Emphasised the need for all countries to seek peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with international law without resorting to threat or use of force or attempt to unilaterally change status quo”.

Reflecting on the burgeoning Chinese bellicosity in the region, they emphasised- “importance of non-militarisation and self-restraint”. This statement further reinforces the observation of the US Indo-Pacific commander, Admiral John C Aquilino who expressed concerns over China’s muscle flexing. He observed, “China has fully militarised at least three of several islands its built in the disputed South China Sea, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment, and fighter jets in an increasingly aggressive move that threatens all nations operating nearby”.

At a time when Biden’s Russian obsession has veered the world away from China’s military aggression in the Indo-Pacific, reaffirming commitment to free and open Indo-Pacific, India has rightly highlighted the security threats in the region and called for “the full and effective implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and the early conclusion of a substantive and effective Code of Conduct in the South China Sea in accordance with international law, especially UNCLOS”.

PM Kishida welcomed PM Modi’s Indo-Pacific Oceans’ Initiative (IPOI) and proposed greater cooperation between IPOI and Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). To effectively uphold the vision of FOIP such as openness, rule of law, freedom, transparency and inclusiveness, both leaders reiterated their strong support for ASEAN’s unity and centrality and endorsed “ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)”.

Pandemic, besides inflicting a huge blow to economies, brought to fore the strategic weaponization of trade and crippling of global supply chain. To insulate economies and liberate them from coercion, as part of FOIP, India and Japan have resolved to power their economies with robust bilateral flow of trade and investments. India received first yen loan aid in 1958 and has been one of the major beneficiaries of Japan’s ODA (Official Development Assistance). Japan is fifth largest source of FDI.

In 2000 Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori established “Global Partnership between India and Japan”. In 2005, both countries have started annual summit meets and in 2006, Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh and Junichiro Kozumi elevated the relationship to “Global and Strategic Partnership”.  

In 2014, on the eve of Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to Japan for a summit meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, they upgraded these ties to “Special Strategic and Global Partnership”. Subsequently, Abe announced 3.5 trillion Yen investment in India over a period of five years.

Taking note of the steps taken by government of India to improve ease of doing business and business environment, Kishida announced an investment of 5 trillion Yen of public and private investment in India over a period of five years. To promote industrial cooperation in MSME and manufacturing, India and Japan have established India-Japan Industrial Competitive Partnership (IJICP) in November 2021.

To reduce dependence on China and build resilient and reliable supply chain, India, Japan and Australia initiated Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI) in April 2021.  Economic cooperation is a force multiplier and to infuse new momentum in bilateral ties, India and Japan are planning to review CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) for implementation. Making amendments in article 7 &13 of the CEPA, countries are contemplating the inclusion of surimi fish of India in the IJIICP roadmap. While robust investments have been the high point of India-Japan partnership, the bilateral trade of $16.95 is below the potential. In a welcome move, India approved the imports of Apples from Japan and Japan relaxed procedures to export Indian mangoes.

Besides shared interests, India and Japan have a common adversary, strengthening defence cooperation, countries welcomed operationalisation of the Agreement Concerning Reciprocal Provision of Supplies and Services between Indian Armed Forces and Japan’s self defense forces through bilateral and multilateral exercises like “Dharma Guardian” and “Malabar” respectively. But Japan still hobbled by a pacifist constitution isn’t forthcoming on defence cooperation as yet and both countries are still identifying potential areas of cooperation and collaboration in defense manufacturing and technology sectors.

True to quintessential global partnership, both countries more or less share common perspectives on countering terrorism. The Joint Statement condemned the state-sponsor terrorism of Pakistan in strongest terms and unequivocally harboured similar positions with regards to denuclearisation of Korean peninsula, realising peace and stability in Afghanistan, implementation of five-point consensus by Myanmar.

India and Japan part of the G 4, seeking permanent membership in an expanded UNSC sought for early reforms of the UNSC to reflect the contemporary realities of the 21^st century and significantly affirmed to “accelerate its process, including through the commencement of text-based negotiations in the Inter-Governmental Negotiations (IGN) with an overall objective to achieve concrete outcomes in a fixed time frame”.

Synergizing with India’s Act East Policy (AEF) and Japan’s vision for FOIP, countries have established Act East Forum in 2017 for promoting and developing India’s North East Region (NER) by way of improving connectivity within the region and between the region and the South East Asia. For sustainable development of the NER, the focus of AEF has been on improving agriculture through better irrigation, developing agro-based industries, food processing, improving health facilities, skill development and employment under Skill India, disaster resilience, development of tourism and cultural exchange, connectivity, new renewable energy, sustainable use of forest resources and cooperation in development of Urban areas.

As part of this grand initiative, both the leaders have launched “India-Japan Initiative for Sustainable Development of the North Eastern Region of India” which includes the “initiative for strengthening Bamboo Value Chain in the North East”. Bamboo is an inalienable part of the culture heritage of both countries and by marrying traditional skills with innovative design and branding, countries aim to promote the livelihoods of people in NER through Bamboo Value chain initiative.

Besides the progress made on four pillars of cooperation of the Quad-connectivity, Covid vaccines, emerging technologies and climate, India and Japan have renewed partnership towards sustainable development in the post Covid world. Countries have launched India-Japan Clean Energy Partnership in areas such as electric vehicles (EV), storage systems including batteries, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, solar energy, clean including green hydrogen/ ammonia, wind energy, exchange of view on energy transition plans, energy efficiency, carbon dioxide Capturing, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) and Carbon recycling.

To deliver on ambitious climate change and sustainable development goals, Japan and India have committed to the net carbon zero by 2070 and 2050 respectively. Accordingly, leaders are seeking to cement the cooperation on new and renewable energy. Emulating Japan’s Asia’s Energy Transition Initiative (AETI), countries are keen on tapping into low-carbon sunrise sectors, new technologies to reduce carbon emissions with an underlying vision of being secure, efficient, resilient and sustainable. Cooperation under this partnership will build on the work already carried under foundation of India-Japan Energy Dialogue in 2007.

Countries have signed Memorandum of Cooperation (MoC) in the field of Cyber security and MoU on seven JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) loans for connectivity, water supply and sewerage, health care and conservation projects in North East, decentralised domestic waste water management, sustainable urban development.

Pursuing national interest has been foundational pillar of Modi’s doctrine. Refusing to be drawn into the quagmires of the geopolitical ferment, wary of allying with any group, India is strategically seeking issue-based coalitions. Of late, India is intently solemnising bilateral trade, energy and investment agreements over multilateral pacts. Resisting coercion, threats and intimidation, India has by far firmly adopted a neutral stance on the Ukraine issue.

Though Kishida’s quick visit to India has been an inadvertent persuasive effort to convince India to support sanctions against Russia, through deft diplomacy, India deepened multisectoral cooperation with Japan. Imploring on the need to focus on the Indo-Pacific region, which is of immediate consequence to both countries, India reinfused trust and fresh energy into the partnership pivoted on shared interests and common threats.

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The Kashmir Files Makes a Compelling Case for Revisiting our History and Revising Textbooks

The Kashmir Files, which started its journey as “Right to Justice” and first screened in the United States made waves and left an indelible impression on the audience. Slated for an official release initially on the Republic Day, people in India too eagerly awaited the movie that has shone light on the plight of the Kashmiri Hindus. Clearing the legal tangles, the movie hit the screens in India on March 11^th.

For decades, the ecosystem nonchalantly glossed over the gruesome ethnocide of Kashmiri Hindus as “exodus”. The targeted attacks on Hindus in the Valley for the past 700 years culminated in a pogrom on Jan 19^th, 1990 which forced over five lakh Kashmiri Hindus to leave the valley. Overnight, the land of Sage Kashyapa was stripped bare of the legit inheritors and upholders of Indic civilisation. But a vast majority of the Indians remained blissfully unaware of this tragic demographic displacement which could extirpate the last surviving remnants of Indic civilisation in the valley, which has been knowledge fount of the Indian subcontinent. Unfortunately, barring muted discussions among the intellectual circles and well-read, common man was largely oblivious to the purge of Kashmiri Hindus and the mission-mode attacks on them.

Through an unvarnished presentation of the facts based on the true stories, the Kashmir Files, has taken the Indian audience by a storm. Majority of them who are ignorant of the ordeal of the Kashmiri Hindus are left teary eyed and shocked to learn about their sordid saga. The movie which laid threadbare all the events that led to the ethnic cleansing of the Kashmiri Hindus shook the collective conscious of the Indians. Startled by the disconnect between the popular narrative and the ground reality people are genuinely outraged by the apathy of the system, failure of the successive governments.

People are perplexed by conspiracy of silence. The feeling of having failed the micro minority community of Kashmiri pandits has compounded the anguish of the common man. The movie has come as a jolt to the slumbering Hindus who naively consumed the whitewashed history systematically fed through the text books. The complete absence of even a mention of this carnage has created a definite churn and ignited a distrust towards the dominant narrative. This aversion can potentially give a major fillip to the popular demand of revising the text books and Indian academic works that have buried the real Indian history.

Since 8^th century BCE Hindus have been at the receiving end of the foreign invaders who besides ravaging and plundering the country have attempted to decimate their sense of identity. History written by victors for over the centuries never empathised with the kind of bloodshed and butchery endured by the Hindus in the civilisational war. Their resistance and steely courage have always remained an obscure historical footnote.

In 1947, though India attained political independence, Hindus were constitutionally discriminated. Post-independence the ecosystem that dominated the discourse always portrayed Hindus as a majoritarian aggressor and flagrantly whitewashed the crimes against them. In cahoots with the political dispensation which undermined the Hindu interests to appease their vote bank, the ecosystem besides distorting the history peddled a narrative of minority victimhood.

The lackadaisical approach of government towards Hindus has triggered a sudden rise in anti-India and anti-Hindu designs in the valley. The Kashmiri Hindus who have been victims of religious fanaticism since 11^th century and left the valley in six major waves were forced to leave for the seventh time at gun point in an independent country, is a matter of a national shame. This abject failure of the country to provide security is inexcusable.

For years, the ecosystem, which sided with the fanatics who were hailed as “Gandhi with Guns” has successfully misled the common man with their fabricated narratives. Reflecting truth and reality, the Kashmir Files (TKF) movie has exposed the genocide which was expertly touted as “exodus” by the ecosystem.  Affecting the coverup of the grotesque crimes against the Hindus by the jihadi tyranny hailed as “azadi”, the movie has permanently blown away the lid of the nefarious anti-India and anti-Hindu agenda at work.

Mainstreaming the Hindu atrocities, the movie besides puncturing the narrative of the ecosystem has rightly exposed the bigotry of the judicial system, that refused to offer legal recourse to the affected community. TKF has drawn attention to exiled Kashmiri Hindus who continue to live as internal refugees in their own country.

With a non-linear narration and a string of parallelly running brainstorming session by a professor who exuberantly blurts out- “the government is theirs but the system is ours” the film rightly encapsulated the motives of the cabal that diabolically refutes the genocide.  Expertly underscoring the war of narratives at play, the movie offers a complete perspective of the interplay of various factors at work in burying the Holocaust. Devoid of loaded dialogues but peppered with anecdotal wise words like- “impossible takes little longer time” and “hope is what they want to kill”, the director has smartly underscored the uncanny resilience of the Kashmiri Hindus.

Without suggesting any way forward, the director left it to the discretion of the audience to mull over a valid recourse. Effectively using the visual media to etch the genocide in the psyche, the film has sparked a new awakening. This new illumine among the youngsters springs a fresh hope of people collectively demanding the government for a legal recourse to the Kashmiri Hindus who continue to live in exile.

Intriguingly for all the fascist diatribes against the current dispensation of curbing the freedom of expression, the coverup of genocide saw the light of the day under this regime. Abrogating article 370, the government has shown its commitment of integrating J&K with the country. J&K is incomplete without Kashmiri Hindus who are integral to restoring the civilisational identity of the valley. Rehabilitation of the Kashmiri Hindus back in the valley is indispensable to reposition Kashmir as the fount of Indian civilisation.

It is time the government of day display a courage of conviction and institute a truth and reconciliation committee to probe and document the ethnic cleansing and ensure swift justice to prevent future recurrence.

Unlike the famed son of the school master who took to arms for alleged high-handedness of the Indian Army, despite the homicide, invoking Devi Sharada Kashmiri Hindus, believed in the power of pen and never turned hostile towards the state and slowly built their lives. The unmissable striking contrast shown in the movie reflective of the values of the land has spurred the conscious of Indians who are now yearning for an honourable redressal for Kashmiri Hindus.

The Kashmir Files has opened a new chapter in India’s battle of narratives which is thus far dominated by a privileged section of the society. By bringing to fore the trials, tribulations and despicable bigotry, the movie has illumined a spark and generated a wider consciousness towards the ongoing civilisation war.

Successive Indian governments and the ecosystem with vested interests never bothered to promote Indic civilisation and shattered hopes of institutionalised revival. Featuring the indifference and apathy of the system, TKF generated an awareness that can effectively spark a new renaissance triggering a bottom up approach of people propelling a change.

The Kashmir Files has stirred a pot rekindling the hope of birthing a new generation of thought leaders. Overcoming several hurdles, push and pull of the woke ecosystem, director Vivek Agnihotri has displayed tremendous courage in exposing the gruesome facet of atrocities suffered by the indigenous people of the land.

While the government of India is yet to order an investigation on massacre of Kashmiri Hindus for the first ever gripping visual presentation of collective grief has moved the World. For the first time in 32 years, US state of Rhode Island has acknowledged the Kashmir genocide. Certainly, the movie created a ripple, shook the society and heralded a narrative.

Here is a heartfelt thanks to the entire unit and cast of the TKF for their invaluable contribution to the Hindu society and the country at large.

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Escalating Ukraine Crisis Poses a Major Diplomatic Challenge for India

America's debacle in Afghanistan has emboldened China and Russia. Besides creating a security vacuum in the region, the move accentuated muscular revisionism and impelled both countries to consolidate their “sphere of influence”. Under the shadow of America’s pull back from Afghanistan, China tightened its grip over Hongkong and intensified incursions on Taiwan while Russia sought to alter the post-Cold war security architecture of Europe.

In December contending that its relations with US and NATO allies are reaching a “dangerous point”, Moscow has submitted a proposal calling for a ban on NATO membership to Ukraine, removal of weapons deployment in the vicinity of Russia and stalling NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe. Moscow expressed interest to reach an agreement with the US directly instead of involving all its European allies, deeming it to be counterproductive.

Terming the security proposals unacceptable, Washington called Russia’s military build-up around Ukraine as preparation for an invasion and warned that Russia has to pay a “terrible price” should it invade Ukraine. It also rejected the offer for direct talks without its European allies. After Soviet Union collapse, the Baltic nations- Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia joined NATO in 2004. In 2008, President George W Bush backed NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine which border Russia. 

While there isn’t any consensus among members over Ukraine’s entry into NATO, Moscow is threatened by the growing US-Ukraine military cooperation. On June 14th, in Brussels Summit Communique of NATO, US reaffirmed its “support to Ukraine’s right to decide its future foreign policy course free from outside interference, including with respect to Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO” and both the countries signed new defense cooperation agreement in September. The communique was released two days ahead of Biden-Putin summit at Geneva. Additionally, the joint Ukraine and the US military exercises, training of Ukrainian soldiers by US forces, annual military aid has only compounded Russia’s fears of growing Western influence in Ukraine.

With regards to troop deployment, Russia insisted that it has no intention to invade Ukraine and held two rounds of consultations with Russia-NATO council and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Permanent Council. Russia, France, Germany Ukraine held two rounds of Normandy Format meetings in Paris and Berlin respectively to deescalate tensions. President Biden’s references to Ukraine issue as “biggest crisis in Europe since the end of cold war” has sent the European nations such as Germany and France rallying for diplomacy. 

Facing the double predicament of its security reliance on the US and energy dependence on Russia, Germany and France pursued diplomacy to deescalate tensions. 

As the stalemate continued, NATO and the US ruled any boots on ground in Ukraine and refused security guarantees to Russia. Instead, the US dispatched 3000 troops, naval ships and warships to Eastern Europe, evacuated its civilians and diplomats from Ukraine citing looming threat of invasion by Russia. 

High-decibel war rhetoric of Biden despite Ukraine underplaying the threats of Russian invasion, signalled a Cold War like obsession of the US, even as the real hegemon China continues to make fresh gains from American follies.

Ratcheting up the fear of imminent Russian invasion, Biden warned of severe economic sanctions and threatened to stop the Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Announcing a tentative date of invasion, Biden created a panic in global markets causing a massive surge of crude oil prices reaching $100 mark, for the first time since 2014. Needless to say, this ongoing confrontation is a reminiscent of the cold war times that has sent nations into tizzy. 

While the distracted US and European diplomats are working overtime to mitigate the “imminent” Ukrainian invasion, America’s sanction regime and propaganda campaign has irretrievably cemented the Sino-Russian ties. China openly endorsed Russia’s military build-up in return for Beijing’s position on Taiwan. 

While this Sino-Russo entente is a cause of concern for India, escalating confrontations at the Ukraine border has posed a bigger diplomatic predicament for India. India which has friendly ties with all the stakeholders- Russia, the US and Europe has a challenging task of not taking sides and remaining neutral as the crisis shows no signs of dying down. America’s war rhetoric caused the global meltdown of markets. 

A convergence of shared interests and a burgeoning Chinese threat in the Indo-Pacific region brought India and the US closer. India’s special privileged partnership with Russia and its outlook of Moscow has been a major sticking point for Indo-US ties. Amid unabated Chinese aggression, US acknowledged India as the major driving force of the Quad and resisted invoking CAATSA against New Delhi despite S-400 purchase from Russia.

But America might wield the Damocles sword of CAATSA if Ukrainian crisis deteriorates. By extension an imposition of severe economic sanctions against Russia in an event of Ukraine invasion would jeopardise India’s plans of investments in Russia’s far east. Another round of sanctions besides leading to a complete breakdown of ties between Russia and the US would invariably drive Russia into Chinese tent. Eventually it will pave way for another axis comprising of Russia-China-Iran and Pakistan. Stalling of Nord Stream 2 will impact the global oil and gas prices paralysing India’s plans of revival of covid hit economy.

Wading the growing US-Russo tensions has presented itself as biggest test for Indian diplomacy now. Refusing to take sides and veering away from any kind of alignment, a hallmark of India foreign policy. In keeping with its strategic autonomy, on January 31st, India abstained voting on Ukraine issue and called for “immediate de-escalation of tensions ….. aimed towards securing long-term peace and stability in the region and beyond” and “urged all parties to continue to engage through all diplomatic channels and keep working towards the full implementation of the Minsk package”.

The joint statement of the recently concluded Quad meet of foreign ministers at Melbourne omitted any reference to Ukraine. But, at the media briefing, Blinken spoke about “Russian aggression” and Australia, Japan lent support to US. India stressed on diplomacy and drew attention to issues specific to Indo-Pacific region and Chinese aggression. Allaying the speculations of dissonance in the Quad over omission of Ukraine issue presumably on India’s insistence, MEA clarified, “India and the US had an honest conversation on Ukraine”.

In line with India’s objective approach, at Feb 17th UNSC meeting, Indian representative TS Tirumurti said, “Any steps that increase tension may best be avoided by all sides in the larger interest of securing international peace and security. Quiet and constructive diplomacy is the need of the hour. We reiterate our call for the peaceful resolution of the situation by sincere and sustained diplomatic efforts to ensure that concerns of all sides are amicably resolved through constructive dialogue”.

India’s statement at UNSC was perceived by commentariat as pro-Russian for refraining from criticising Russian actions. The import of that prejudicial understanding morphed into a political messaging of “you are either with or against us”, became evident at a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference 2022 attended by EAM. 

An eloquent rebuttal by EAM at the panel discussion moderated by Dr Lynn Kuok who bombarded with a barrage of unfounded opinions (questions) provided a window to fathom popular discontentment towards India’s policy driven by national interests. In response to a question- how India is contributing towards European security since France and European generals are contributing towards Indo-Pacific security and apparently disapproving India’s abstention from voting on Ukraine at UNSC, EAM said, “Well, I don’t think the situations in the Indo-Pacific and the transatlantic are really analogous. Certainly, the assumption in your question that somehow there is a trade-off and one country does this in the Pacific so in return you do something else, I don’t think that’s the way international relations work”.

“We have quite distinct challenges, what is happening here or what is happening in the Indo-Pacific. In fact, if there was a connection by that logic you would have had lot of European powers already taking sharp positions in the Indo-Pacific. We didn’t see that. We haven’t seen that since 2009”.

By comparing the situation in Indo-Pacific to Ukraine crisis, the moderator displayed a poor understanding of the international affairs. It has been an overt attempt to pressurise India from choosing one strategic power over another. But the EAM astutely resisted all these insinuations. 

Dissatisfied with EAM’s uncompromised stand of not siding with any power- the moderator imputed if India disagrees that principles, rules-based order, international law should apply across the world uniformly? Without battling an eyelid, EAM retorted, “No, I would say principles and interests are balanced and if people were so principled in this part of the World, they would have been practicing their principles in Asia or Afghanistan before we have actually seen them do”.

EAM’s sagacious diplomacy clinically punctured the western discourse of warranting India’s support to Ukraine issue as a trade-off for America’s and European nations pivot to Indo-Pacific. As rightly pointed out, till 2009, none of these countries never registered a protest or imposed any sanctions despite China’s aggression. Indeed, the countries woke up to China’s expansion years after Beijing mastered gobbling up new territorial forms in the South China Sea, South Asia and hindering free passage through its seas. For all their tirade against Russia, none of these even chided China for the Galwan issue or its massive standoff with India which is now over 22 months old. 

At the time of writing, the Ukraine issue took a dramatic turn. President Putin signed a decree on recognition of Luhansk Peoples Republic and Donetsk People Republic. This prompted the US to immediately call for an emergency meeting of UNSC. At UNSC, expressing deep concern over escalation of tensions, prioritising the safety and security of 20,00 Indian students and nationals in Ukraine, India emphasised the vital need “to maintain international peace and security by exercising utmost restraint and intensifying diplomatic efforts to endure that mutually amicable solution is arrived at the earliest”. 

Meanwhile, Germany suspended certification of Nord Stream 2 over Russian actions and US and UK are likely to announce fresh economic sanctions. Russian actions, which is a repeat of Crimean annexation, the US fixation on Russia and the employment of huge propaganda machinery in no uncertain terms, indicates that the cold war is not yet over.

Unlike in 2004 with a long-term energy supplies agreement of $117.5 billion with China, Moscow has effectively cushioned itself against sanction regime. Alongside, Russia and China during the inauguration of winter Olympics signed a statement affirming political support in actions against west. To weather possible cut-off from the Swift Payment system, reports state that Russia has developed an alternate payment system- System for Transfer of Financial Message (SPFs). Clearly, the game is on!!

Eruption of military conflict will leave little for diplomatic manoeuvring for India. New Delhi must carefully tread a middle ground to avoid getting drawn into this tangle.

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India-UAE Fortify Multi-faceted Bilateral Ties

Close on heels after announcement of conclusion of interim trade deal between India and Australia by mid-March, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with UAE will be a huge boost for Indian economy.  In a virtual summit meet commemorating 75 years of India’s independence and 50 years of UAE’s foundation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan witnessed the signing of CEPA.

The FTA with UAE is New Delhi’s second major deal after the India-Mauritius Comprehensive Economic Cooperation and Partnership Agreement (CECPA) in February 2021.

Breaching the traditional timelines, expediting the talks, both countries finalised this early harvest deal in a record 88 days. Both the countries commenced the talks in September 2021. Three visits by the External Affairs Minister and a visit by Commerce Minister to UAE for negotiations laid the ground for CEPA. To increase the existing bilateral trade worth $60 billion to $100 billion merchandise trade, and services trade to $15 billion in five years, the CEPA envisioned to reduce tariffs initially of 80% goods and will extend to 98% of goods over time.

Besides enabling the two-way investment in trade and services, start-ups and fintechs, the FTA is expected to create 5 lakh jobs in gems, textiles, engineering, agriculture and auto sectors in India and 1 lakh jobs in UAE.

Introducing new structural changes and launching “Vocal for Local: Manufacture in India for the World”, a cumulative turn around in manufacturing sector Indian Government set the merchandise export target of $400 billion¹ for the 2022. India is almost on reaching this milestone this year. Enthused by fledging manufacturing potential, India is aiming at $2 trillion exports by 2030- comprising of $1 trillion merchandise exports and $1 trillion service exports. The FTA with UAE will not only help in sustaining the growth but would facilitate access to attractive export markets for Indian goods.

In line with its ambitious targets, New Delhi has junked the strategy of signing trade agreements to join trade groups and shifted its focus on sealing bilateral FTAs with countries to facilitate market access and better integration of Indian markets to global supply chains. This FTA with UAE will eventually actuate India to conclude similar trade agreements with GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain), the UK, the EU, Australia, Israel and Canada on anvil.

UAE is part of the Greater-Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) and has free trade access to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, Sudan and Tunisia². With CEPA on roll, India can enter markets of West Asia and Africa.

Giving major push to its FTA strategy, the UAE is also planning to seal FTAs with eight countries including India, the UK, Indonesia, Turkey, South Korea, Ethiopia, Israel and Kenya this year. Needless to say, enhanced economic cooperation is bound to foster a robust and resilient relationship.

India and UAE established diplomatic ties in 1972. But Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the country in 2015, a first in 34 years, resurrected the ties hinged on the pillars of energy cooperation, remittances and employment destination. In line with UAE’s “Vision 2021” which sought to diversify its economy, India and UAE harnessed a vision to expand the cooperation to different sectors. Subsequently, countries unveiled UAE-India Infrastructure Investment Fund. UAE pledged $75 billion to support India’s plans for building next generation infrastructure over a period of time.

The bilateral trade which mainly comprised of oil valued at $180 million per annum in 1970s steadily grew to $59 billion. Currently UAE is the third largest trading and export destination of Indian goods after US and China. UAE is 9^th biggest investor in India in terms of FDI.

Since 2015, state visits by Prime Minister Modi in 2018, 2019 and reciprocal visits by Crown Prince in 2016 and 2017 reinvigorated the ties. In 2017, on the eve of Crown Prince’s visit to India as guest of honour for Republic Day celebrations countries elevated the ties to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Signalling trust and deepening friendship, UAE armed forces joined the parade becoming the first Arab nation to participate in the Republic Day march and second foreign military contingent. The first being the French contingent.

Aside the synergistic economic cooperation, the significant hallmark of India-UAE relationship is developmental partnership in J&K. Riled by abrogation of article 370, Pakistan has attempted to garner the support of OIC countries against India. Unequivocally stating that it is an internal matter of India, UAE cold shouldered Pakistan.

In response to Pakistan’s nefarious agenda to destabilise J&K, India roped in the UAE as a developmental partner. In October 2021, India hosted a high-level delegation from Dubai for signing a MoU with J&K administration for real estate development, industrial parks, IT towers, logistics, medical colleges among others at Srinagar³. Giving a huge boost to trade, tourism and international connectivity, direct flight between Srinagar and Sharjah was flagged off.

As a follow up, commemorating J&K week at Indian pavilion of Dubai Expo 2020, Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha travelled to UAE to meet business leaders to attract investments for economic development. He finalised investment commitments from Emaar, DP World and the Lulu world towards building of Mall of Srinagar, establishment of multi-modal inland container terminal and cold storage facilities and setting up of network of hypermarkets for handicrafts, horticulture products, fresh produce from J&K respectively. Clearly this mutually beneficial development partnership besides bolstering ties is a message to the World that India is keen of putting J&K on a growth trajectory.

Heralding 50 years of strong bilateral ties, leaders released a road map, “Joint India-UAE Vision Statement: Advancing the India-UAE Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: New Frontiers, New Milestones” for a future looking partnership. Multi-faceted partnership now revitalised by economic cooperation is leaping forward to consolidate such cooperation in arenas of culture, health, skills, education, global issues, defence and security, energy partnership, climate action, renewables, emerging technologies and food security.

Countries have also signed MoUs in areas like- economy, climate change and Houbara Conservation, Industries and Advanced Technologies, Low Carbon Hydrogen Developments and Investments, food security, financial services and Issuance of India-UAE joint stamps⁵.

Energy partnership has been key pillar of Indo-UAE bilateral ties. Additionally, UAE is also India’s first international partner by way of investing crude in India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves Program, has committed to collaborate with India towards an equitable transition to low-carbon future. With UAE selected to host COP28 in 2023, countries have agreed to work closely in context of COPs, International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA) and International Solar Alliance (ISA). With UAE joining the UNSC as non-permanent member for 2022-23, both countries resolved to “reinforce mutual support in multilateral areas to promote collaboration in economic and infrastructure spheres”⁴.

Modi condemned the recent attacks by the Houthi rebels against UAE. Reaffirming their joint commitment to fight terrorism and extremism, both the leaders emphasised the “importance of promoting the values of peace, moderation, coexistence and tolerance”. Thanks to UAE’s commitment towards moderation and tolerance, the West Asia fraught with turbulence and friction is witnessing a new churn. While Abraham Accords played a pivotal role in reshaping and integration of the region, the UAE’s role in bringing the countries has raised the hopes of new dawn of co-existence and peace.

India-UAE comprehensive strategic partnership and strong ties have paved way for a new multilateral touted as the “new Quad” comprising India, UAE, Israel and the US. Led by UAE, foreign Ministers of the countries held the first virtual summit in October to explore risk free economic opportunities in the post Abraham Accords era. As of now there is little to suggest that the new Quad envisages a strategic or security role. But India’s strong ties with UAE has helped it to overcome the traditional inhibitions to enter a regional cooperation arrangement in the West Asia.

UAE is home to 3.5 million Indian community with Indians being “largest minority ethnic group” making up for 38% of UAE residents. The intangible force of people to people connect and strong business to business relations have brought the countries much closer.

Indian diplomacy is certainly coming of the age by breaking the self-imposed barriers of staying away from West Asia. Maintaining strong friendly ties with rivals- Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, India is slowly expanding its reach in the Arab region.

Breaking new ground through FTA, both countries have signalled their intent to consolidate the partnership with new optimism. Together with close collaboration and sense of purpose, countries have set a stage to usher into a new era of prosperity contributing to global recovery and creating immense opportunities for both economies.

Through an unprecedented outreach, both the countries have transformed a transactional energy cooperation into a comprehensive strategic cooperation. Now UAE is a vital strategic partner of India for the regional cooperation in West Asia.

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PM Modi attacks the Congress impervious to political scrutiny

With elections around the corner, Rahul Gandhi in reply to motion of thanks to President’s address chose the platform of Lok Sabha to take on BJP. He raised issues about unemployment, Pegasus, Chinese aggression and weakening of the federal structure of the country.  To drive home his point, he asserted that India is a not a nation but a “union of states”. He claimed, “India is described in the Indian Constitution as a union of states and not a nation. One cannot rule over the people of a state in India. Different languages and cultures cannot be suppressed. It is a partnership, not a kingdom”.

Needless to say, he purposely chose to state a half-truth to push his agenda. While Article 1 of the constitution says, “India that is Bharat is a Union of States”, the makers of the Constitution presciently included an explanation in the debate and issued a clarification. Drafting committee chairman Dr B R Ambedkar explained that “union of states” was used to clarify that states did not have the right to secede from India¹ and warned against calling this a federation akin to the United States which is a Federation of States. Ambedkar and all the other makers of the Constitution have espoused unequivocally the national identity of India.

By resorting to the selective interpretation, Rahul Gandhi has disingenuously attempted to create a misconception. The preamble of the Constitution declares- “Fraternity assuring the dignity of the individual and the unity and the integrity of the nation”. Lamenting that “I feel uncomfortable”, “there are two Indias-one for the poor and one for the rich. The chasm between these two Indias are increasing continuously” he undermined the inexorable fact of India’s nationhood, he subtly stoked latent disaffection towards an elected government.

This tried and tested technique of Congress to sow seeds of distrust has been the latest fad of Congress party which has long last its interest to royally claim its place through electoral verdicts. Resting in the laurels of the gifted moral victories of the ecosystem, which is ever ready to defend the dynasty despite its eroding electoral support, Congress has stopped putting a tough fight in the elections.

Instead, it has resorted to the sinister tact of toppling the government by other means. Incapable of taking on the Modi juggernaut and BJP’s colossal well-oiled election machinery, Congress has outsourced its campaign to external sources, which has replaced the manifesto with a tool kit. Having tasted its first victory with the meticulous implementation of a tool kit leading to roll back of the three farm laws, the Congress party and its part time President are now making brief appearances before the elections armed with weapon of stoking dissensions and capitalising on the deep fissures in a diverse country like India. Analogous to the “divide and rule” policy of the British calling India a “union of states”, Congress is innocuously instigating the states against the Centre.

Besides attacking the judiciary and the Election Commission, Gandhi launched a tirade against the government saying, “Now there is a Shehanshah. Now the instruments of the conversations between our state and people are being attacked by one idea”. While Congress left no stone unturned to label the elected government as fascist, a covert attempt to revive sub-nationalism sentiments and attempts to polarise the country along the regional lines has been the major import of his message.

As has been the case, the usual suspects hailed his speech as “coming of the age”. This jaundiced interpretation of India as a nation, vituperative criticism and cynical portrayal of India since 2014, has become a second nature to Congress party. Relinquishing the responsibility of a principal opposition party in a Parliamentary democracy Congress has brazenly resorted to the idea of fueling the separatist tendencies to discredit the government. This kind of unrestrained negative propaganda is steadily strengthening the vested interests.

Countering the dangerous precedent of begetting dissensions towards the concept of India, as the Prime Minister of our nation, Modi in his address to both the houses of the Parliament has decimated the spurious postulations of Rahul Gandhi.

Launching a blistering attack on Congress, Modi gave a reality check to Congress which is losing ground across the country. Countering Rahul Gandhi’s quip, “Main Tamil Hu Na”, Modi reminded Congress was last voted to power six decades ago in Tamil Nadu and listed out the states where the party has been shunted out lock, stock and barrel. Fluctuating electoral mandates are part and parcel of a functioning democracy. But a systematic decimation of a party from a number of states clearly points to an underlying flawed political strategy.

Besides being divested of the ground realities, the Congress party devoid of a capable leadership and have now resorted to depraved politicking. Through its preposterous strategy of denigrating anything related to India to show the ruling party in a poor light, Congress party is inadvertently colluding with vested interests. This trend has become more pronounced during the pandemic, when Congress was complicit in the vicious western propaganda. The scale of the blind hatred towards ruling dispensation has reached to such an extent that Pakistan began using the posts of the Congress leaders to support its anti-India propaganda.

This worrying trend remained uncontested with the ecosystem singing the same tune as the Congress party. For decades, the party had a free run with all its offences unchallenged and unquestioned. Even as the list of blunders would make people hang their head in shame, the unflinching loyalty of the ecosystem ensured that the narrative still favoured and revered the party.

Demolishing the grand old party’s self-entitlement, Modi listed out the misdemeanours of Congress- “had Congress not been there… democracy would’ve been free of dynasty, India would’ve been spared of the blot of Emergency, corruption wouldn’t have been institutionalised, the abyss of casteism and regionalism wouldn’t have been so deep, Sikhs wouldn’t have been massacred, Punjab wouldn’t have brunt on the fire of terrorism, Kashmiri Hindus wouldn’t have had to leave their state”.

In a similar vein, rebutting the charges of suppression of right to freedom of speech, Modi pointed out to treatment meted to Lata Mangeshkar’s brother Hridyanath Mangeshkar who was unceremoniously sacked from AIR in 1955 for setting the tune of Veer Savarkar’s poem. Prof Dharam Pal and Majrooh Sultanpuri were jailed for criticising Nehru and Kishore Kumar was banned from singing on radio for condemning the Emergency.

Generously citing Nehru’s statements on inflation and India’s nationalistic identity, Modi decimated Rahul Gandhi’s charade of lies and destroyed the high moral ground of Congress. Alongside quoting from Nehru’s speech- “No one should be under an impression that we would launch a military operation in Goa. There is no military stationed around Goa. People within want to make noise and create a situation which forces us to send our Army there. We will not send our Army. We will decide on it peacefully. Let everyone understand this……. but if they call themselves satyagrahis, they should also remember the values, the principles and the path of satyagrahis. There is no army to back them²” Modi elegantly punctured the image of Nehru who refused to send the Army to liberate Goa 15 years after independence for the fear of spoiling his global image of a peace lover. With Assembly elections just days away, while this falls in the category of electoral appeasement, Goans have dearly paid with their lives for freedom to impute any motives.

Claiming that the Congress party has become the face of the “tukde tukde gang” with its ideology hijacked by the Urban Naxals, Modi demolished the façade of the party which seeks umbrage from any political scrutiny for its contribution during the freedom movement. Holding a mirror to Congress party that accused Modi of destroying the federal fabric, Modi recounted the ouster of several chief ministers under Congress regime and indiscriminate use of Article 356.

Modi’s devastating takedown of the Congress, which seemingly bordered on election campaign, covered a vast ground that unravelled the deviant politicking of the Congress party since 2014. Resorting to disrespectful and mindless criticism of initiatives striving to attain self-reliance, Congress has muddied the progress and dented the collective aspirations of the country. Especially the boycott of all party meetings during the Covid, abetment of vaccine hesitancy and triggering mistrust towards indigenous Covid vaccines have been rather odious.

Encircled by belligerent neighbours, keen on creating domestic unrest and external tensions to unravel India, by hideously crossing the redlines of the respectable criticism, befitting of a democracy, Indian opposition is bolstering external forces. With unsparing attacks on India and its nationhood that ill behove a responsible opposition, Congress party and its ecosystem baulked at India’s efforts to combat Covid.

Outmanoeuvring Rahul Gandhi, Modi launched a scathing attack on the dynasty politics calling it the real threat to democracy. Incapacitated to take on Modi electorally, Congress has adopted a three-pronged approach of discredit, destabilise and dismiss to overthrow a government. Being a seasoned politician, Modi rightly alerted the citizens of Congress treacherous motives. Dissent is now being weaponised to destabilise governments across the world. Under the garb of dissent, vested interests are desperately attempting to overthrow democratic governments and India must be prudently wary.

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India-Central Asia Summit crafts effective framework for engagement

 After the collapse of Soviet Union, Central Asia has been relatively stable and several major players exuded great interest in the region for geopolitical gains. US private companies invested over $31 billion in the region and Washington continues to engage with the region through the C5+1 platform¹. Beijing having established diplomatic ties with the region after the independence of Central Asian Republics (CARs), steadily stratified its investments under the flagship- Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI). While Russia considers CARs it exclusive, “near abroad” zone. Considered as “arena of great game” Iran, Turkey, Japan, Europe, EU, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India have vital stakes in the region.

Strategically located, the Central Asian Republics- Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are a vital link between Asia and larger Eurasian landmass and play a great role in the regional stability and peace. While several players operate in the region the unrest in Kazakhstan in the first week of January critically exposed the fault lines and the strong influence wielded by Russia in the region.

Though the reason for the sudden eruption of violence cannot be pinned to a single issue. It has by and large exposed the frictional points in the region- existence of an authoritarian deep state beneath the veil of democracy, rampant corruption, huge financial inequalities, reactivation of fundamentalist Islamist elements, deep penetration of foreign agencies in administration and governance.

When severe protests threatened to derail the government, Kazakhstan President Tokayev’s sought CSTO’s (Central Security Treaty Organisation) assistance to bring country back to normalcy. Within days of CSTO troop deployment, the unrest was quelled. Arrival of Russian forces has inevitably established its larger influence over the region as security provider. Interestingly, this incident has invariably threw spanner into China’s unbridled run in asserting its dominance in Central Asia.

Along the recent development, the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and Taliban takeover has inexorably underscored the importance of the CARs for regional stability. To counter the fledging Pakistan-Taliban-China nexus in the aftermath of America’s evacuation from the region, New Delhi has assiduously worked towards building close engagement with CARs and Russia to contain the spill over effects of Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.

India had a historical connect with the region which includes cultural, religious, civilizational and economic linkages. Buddhism from India spread to other countries through this region, the famous Silk Route spanning the region has been a vital trade link. Mughals made their entry into India through the Fergana Valley of Central Asia.

While Afghanistan is the top of agenda of India’s potential engagement with CARs currently, in the post-Cold war era, India established diplomatic ties to rebalance its foreign policy. In 2012, deeming CARs as an “extended neighbourhood”, India launched “Connect Central Asia (CAA)”. But the doctrine received a new lease for life with Prime Modi’s visit to all the five republics in 2015, the first ever by any Indian Prime Minister. Considered as a turning point, the visit reinvigorated India’s strategic ties with the region.

India soon established Joint Working Groups with CARs in the areas of Counter terrorism, trade and economic cooperation, defence and military cooperation, information technology, hydrocarbons, textiles, space cooperation, health, transport, connectivity and logistics to take the relations forward.

Strategically positioned, rich in mineral resources accessing the land locked region has been a major road block in the India-Central Asia relations. India doesn’t physically share borders with the region and Pakistan blocks India’s direct routes to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Transit through China is time consuming and costly. To overcome this block, India inked a trilateral agreement with Iran and Uzbekistan for the use of Chabahar port and connectivity to International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and joined the Ashgabat Agreement with governments of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Iran, Oman and Pakistan for creating International Transport and Transit Corridor (ITTC) in 2018.

Besides, India ramped up its engagement with Central Asia as member of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).  Additionally for building comprehensive and enduring relations, a platform, India-Central Asia Dialogue led by the foreign ministers held first meeting at Samarkand (Uzbekistan) in 2019 and launched India-Central Asia Business Council (ICABC) to promote trade linkages. India adopted a broad-based framework- economic, political, cultural and security connection to bolster relations with CARs. India announced $1 billion Line of Credit to widen energy and connectivity partnership² during the second India-Central Asia dialogue held virtually.

Aside affirming cooperation in combatting terrorism, India pledged to finance, high impact community development projects (HICDP) in Central Asia for furthering socio-economic development. In tandem with the continuous engagement, the third India-Central Asia dialogue, held in Delhi reiterated strong support for “a peaceful, secure and stable Afghanistan” and need for - exploring new vistas of cooperation to deepen strategic engagement through 4Cs- Commerce, capacity building, connectivity and contact. This encompassed cooperation in the arenas of security and terrorism, trade and economy, development partnership, energy security, healthcare and climate change³.

The Third India-Central Asia summit coincided with the foreign ministers OIC meeting held by Pakistan. Interestingly, the CARs chose to attend the Delhi dialogue as opposed to the Islamabad meet as a mark of greater congruence with India’s perspective on geopolitical issues and especially with regards to dealing with Taliban.

Marking the 30 years of establishment of diplomatic ties with CAR, India invited the Presidents of CARs for Republic Day celebrations. Amid the Covid threat while the visit of foreign dignitaries couldn’t attend the event, ramping up the potential engagement, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held the first ever India-Central Asia summit with the leaders of CARs virtually on 27^th January.

Commemorating the 30 years of diplomatic ties, the Sides have issued joint postal stamps. The CAR leaders welcomed India’s offer to establish India-Central Asia Centre that could serve as secretariat for India-Central Asia Summit and noted the need to create India-Central Asia Parliamentary Forum. India’s comprehensive relationship attempted to provide an ambit of solutions including reliable support during pandemics under PM Modi’s “One Earth One Health”.

Reiterating the crux of the strategic relationship, Modi outlined the principle of “Support for All, Development for All, Trust for All, Efforts for All” for regional development, peace and prosperity. Unlike the empty ‘win-win’, India’s trademark inclusive and collaborative approach with a focus on capacity building and human resource development has always been well received by countries.

Connectivity can be a force-multiplier in terms of boosting the economic and trade cooperation for land-locked countries. Cognizant of CARs connectivity needs, India proposed establishment of Joint Working Group on Chabahar port to address issues of free movement of goods and services between India and CARs. Additionally, both sides have agreed to widen the expanse of cooperation to a gamut of sectors- health, information communication technology, establishment of IT/ITES Task Force, tourism, education, youth exchange programs, digitization of manuscripts and film festivals.

Counter terrorism has been another pivotal area of strategic convergence between India and CARs. Taliban’s return to power has only exacerbated the fears of resurgence of terrorism in the region. Concerns of Pan-Islamic outfits gaining ground in Afghanistan and their eventual penetration to the entire region through the porous borders has dismayed the CARs. Reactivation of the groups besides threatening the regional peace is bound to cumulatively increase narco-terrorism.

During the summit, leaders stressing the need for achieving a ‘world free of terror’ underscored the importance of universalization of Code of Conduct towards Achieving a World Free of Terror⁴ and for the first time acknowledged the “interconnection between security, combating terrorism and development, thus facilitating the advancement of the Sustainable Development Goals”.

For decades, India has been highlighting the need for countering terrorism at every possible international forum. But countries sided terror patrons or chose to ignore India’s repeated appeals for geopolitical gains. The spirited acknowledgment of the perils of terrorism by CARs rightly lends strength to New Delhi crusade against terrorism. Apart from calling for early adoption of UN Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT), leaders welcomed Tajikistan’s proposal to hold an International Conference within the framework of “Dushanbe Process on countering financing of terrorism” in October 2022. Agreeing to establish a Joint Working Group on Afghanistan at Senior Officers level, the countries reiterated strong support for “a peaceful, secure and stable Afghanistan” and noted with apprehension the external interference of Pakistan in Afghanistan.

From security perspective, CARs are extremely important for regional security and stability. Taliban’s return has changed the delicate geopolitical balance in the region. India is welcomed in the region as a counter balance to the assertive China against whom the disenchantment among CAR has been growing. Aside its growing footprint, Beijing’s repression of Kazakh and Kyrgyz Muslims along with Uighurs has only heightened anti-China sentiments.

Russia which is miffed with Beijing’s presence in its traditional backyard also favours India’s engagement with the region. For long Pakistan enjoyed a special affinity with CARs due to religion connect. Now the threat of fundamentalism to regional peace and Pakistan’s reputation of state-sponsor terror has turned the CARs against Islamabad. On the contrary, India has a good will in Central Asia. Wary of India’s sustained diplomatic engagement, President Xi held virtual summit with CARs, ahead of Indian summit and announced $500 million financial assistance over a period of three years.

Rolling out a framework for building robust diplomatic ties with Central Asia, the biennial summit made a perfect beginning in the right direction. Now, both sides must strive to renew and revitalize strategic relations.

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China’s hubris evokes strong riposte

Covid pandemic has inexorably laid out bare the defining attributes of every nation state.  China has been no exception. Stealthy salami slicing across the LAC, reunification threats and blatant intimidation of Taiwan, military adventurism in South China Sea, maritime incursions into North Natuna Sea during the pandemic exposed the naked belligerence of China.  Brutal crackdown on the pro-democracy movement, enforcement of National Security Law, ‘Patriots-Only’ (pro-Beijing) legislative election in Hongkong offered a sneak peek into Beijing’s totalitarianism.

New Maritime Law of September 2021, China-Bhutan border agreement of October 2021, China’s border law which came into force from January 1^st have underscored the rapacious expansionism of the Dragon. Giving teeth to its unrestrained expansionist pursuits of the Middle Kingdom, President Xi is now unabashed about its global power ambitions. Making no secret of its intentions, on the eve of the Centenary celebrations of Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Xi vowed, “we will never allow anyone to bully, oppress or subjugate China. Anyone who dares try to do that will have their heads bashed bloody against the Great Wall of Steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people”¹.

Effortlessly replacing its rather famed “sophisticated” foreign policy with Wolf Warrior Diplomacy during the pandemic, China changed the course of its engagement. China’s “hectoring” which has been in second nature became more obvious owing to China’s coercive economic and diplomatic action against a puny nation Lithuania. Pumping up the nationalistic spirit, to divert nation’s attention from an economic slump Xi has fired up all cylinders on reunification of Taiwan mission. Lithuania’s support to Taiwan and its act of permitting the island nation to set up an office- “Taiwanese Representative Office” as against the regular norm of having a “Taipei Economic and Cultural Office” which invariably deprives it of an independent identity sans China has riled China.

Displaying unusual courage, despite CCP’s attempts to bully Lithuania, it refused to succumb. Reiterating its fealty to democratic principles, to avoid an economic fallout Vilnius is now mulling a financial assistance of $147 million to companies affected by dispute with China².  Standing up to Chinese unofficial economic blockades against Lithuania, Taiwan bought 20,000 bottles of rum from Lithuania destined for China. Earlier, China reportedly blocked shipments of beer from Lithuania, to avoid such a spate, Taiwan stood up for Lithuania.

China’s heavy-handed tactics has inadvertently dented Dragon’s image impelling nations to follow Lithuania’s path. By now, the World is too familiar with China’s efforts to poach Taiwan’s diplomatic allies which has reduced from 19 in 2016 to mere 13 as of now. Protests on Solomon Islands and an announcement by newly elected Nicaraguan President Ortega barely a week into the office severing ties with Taiwan have only consolidated the World view of China’s bullying strategies. Clearly, Lithuania’s defiance is a tipping point.

Back in the region, post-Doklam, India and China unveiled informal summit meets to reset ties. In 2018, seeking a peaceful relationship, acknowledging the sensitivities of China, Indian government asked state functionaries to avoid Tibetan events. But the incorrigible Dragon, besmirching the mutual trust, at the height of the pandemic intruded into the Indian side of LAC in 2020. Having suffered a bloody nose during the violent clash at Galwan valley China’s fantasies of overpowering India have come to a naught. Though PLA has disengaged with Indian troops at PP14 (Galwan Valley) and Pangong Tso. Even now the troops are stationed at various friction points including Depsang Valley and Hot Springs.

Though China has agreed to pull back troops, 13 rounds of border talks failed to resolve the log-jam. Currently both sides are yet to finalise dates for next round of Commander level talks. Turning the souring relations more acrimonious, being an ace-player of mind games, China started wielding the tools of deception, treachery and propaganda against India.

Even as the border standoff has failed to make any breakthrough needling India’s indisputable sovereignty and insinuating India, China renamed 15 places in Arunachal Pradesh in Mandarin despite India’s unequivocal assertion of Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India. While this is argued as China’s reaction to RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat’s meeting with Dalai Lama at Dharmashala in December. Given China’s spree of violation of mutual agreements with impunity, India shed the needless compunction to shy away from engaging with the Dalai Lama.  Since the Sino-Indian logjam, upping pressure along the Eastern sector, PLA began executing the forward policy of constructing enclaves close to the North Saing basin and expanding 101-home village in upper Subansiri basin.

In December last week, brazenly, breaching diplomatic etiquettes, the Chinese Embassy in India shot off an impolite letter to six MPs who attended a dinner meet organised by Tibetan government in exile. The political counsellor of Chinese Embassy threatened MPs to refrain from engaging with “out and out separatist political group and an illegal organization”. The letter which had bearings of Dragon’s characteristic wolf-warrior diplomacy stated, “Indian government has recognized that Tibetan Autonomous Region is part of territory of PRC” and chided, “you are a senior politician who know the China-India relations well. It is hoped that you could understand the sensitivity of the issue and refrain from providing support to ‘Tibetan independence forces’”³.

Responding to China’s insolence, the spokesperson of Central Tibetan Administration shot back, “Tibet issue is certainly not an internal issue of China. Whatever happens in Tibet is a serious matter of concern for all the people around the World… China must stop growling here &there all the time”.

Even Tibetan Parliament in-exile issued a press statement condemning Chinese act of sending letters to Indian MPs and said, “China is intimidated by the growing support for the Tibet movement around the World”.  The statement reiterated, “Historically Tibet has never been a part of China. Since the illegal and violent occupation of Tibet, China has oppressed the Tibetans under its brutal and draconian policy. Tibetans inside Tibet are deprived of their fundamental rights and the situation inside Tibet remains grill till date. Hence, the Tibetan issue is not an ‘internal affair’ as China has repeatedly claimed but a critical concern of Tibetan existence”⁴. This eloquent rebuttal is a loss of face for China, which is already facing global censure for ‘Uighur genocide’.

Responding to China’s breach of Taiwan’s ADIZ and President Xi’s New Year’s address, saying “complete unification of ‘the motherland’ was an aspiration shared by people on both sides of Taiwan straits”, President Tsai Ing-Wen warned China. She said, “we must remind Beijing authorities not to misjudge the situation and to prevent the internal expansion of military adventurism”⁵.

Meanwhile, in continuation of its psych-ops war against India, China released a propaganda video of a flag rising ceremony allegedly at Galwan valley. The video which was posted by Chinese handles went viral on social media on the dawn of 2022. The day also marked the adoption of controversial border law. Amplifying the Chinese propaganda and underscoring the consequences of new border law, a section of Indian media and Rahul Gandhi lashed out at Indian government for failing to safeguard territorial integrity of the country.

Refuting the dubious video, three days later, Indian Army released pictures of soldiers hoisting Indian flag at the Galwan Valley. Incidentally, reports now indicate that Chinese social media, Weibo users pointed that CCP has used Chinese actors to shoot a video 28 kms behind Galwan River within the Chinese side on Dec 24^th for four hours⁶.

China has been using every trick in its playbook to provoke India. Disputing Chinese chicanery, India sharply reacted to China’s act of naming 15 places in Arunachal Pradesh and said, the state is an integral part of India and “assigning invented names to the places………. doesn’t alter this fact”⁷. Hitting out at China, MEA spokesperson said, “we hope that instead of engaging in such antics, China will work constructively with us to resolve the outstanding friction points in areas along the Western sector of the LAC in India-China border areas”.

Giving an earful to China, India took serious objection to the tone and tenor of the letters written by the political counsellor of Chinese embassy to Indian MPs. During the weekly briefing, MEA spokesperson said, “the Chinese side should note that India is a vibrant democracy and Honourable Members of Parliament as representatives of the people undertake activities as per their views and beliefs. We expect the Chinese side to refrain from hyping normal activities by activities of Honourable Members of Parliament and complicate further the situation in our bilateral relations”⁸.

With its hectoring behaviour, strong-arm tactics, contemptuousness towards international law, China has brazenly breached every rule of law. The despotic bully overpowered by hubris is now brazenly seeking to run over the sovereignties of vulnerable states. Throwing the peaceful rise paradigm to wind and unleashing muscular revisionism, it has opened several fronts. Unmindful of ever plummeting international repute, steered by “century of humiliation” China is marching ahead to realise “Chinese Dream”.

Certainly, nation states are in no mood to be cowed by the Chinese hubris and are resisting its coercion and calling the bluff of China’s “mutual respect” and “win-win cooperation”.

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