Wednesday 30 March 2022

Modi-Kishida Deftly Deepen Partnership; Shift Focus to Indo-Pacific Theatre

The 14thannual India-Japan summit resumed after a gap of three and half years with the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to India on March 19th. India-Japan summit, scheduled to be held in Guwahati in 2019 could not take place due to anti-CAA protests and pandemic surge in 2020 and 2021 cast a shadow on in person meetings. Besides traveling to Glasgow for the COP 26 after assuming charge, Kishida made his first overseas visit to India as head of the government. During his previous stint as the foreign minister, Kishida last visited India in 2015.

The two-day short visit, marks 70 years of diplomatic relations between India and Japan which comes at a time of a major geopolitical ferment.  Set in the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis, unlike other Quad partners, India adopted a neutral position and eloquently defended its abstention from UN voting on the same. Strategists thus alluded that one of the main aspects of Kishida’s visit would be Russian invasion and rightly so, the Japanese chief cabinet secretary also indicated the same. Ukraine crisis is an important issue where both countries failed to concur. While Japan backed the American position of extreme sanction regime against Russia, India strongly maintained that dialogue is the only way forward and dispatched three tranches of humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Two summit meetings with Quad partners- Japan and Australia- back to back with President Biden’s remarks on India’s “shaky” response to Russian invasion demonstrates that the West strongly wants India to approve their punitive sanctions against Kremlin. Doing a tight diplomatic balancing, India not only repulsed all these attempts but has successfully managed to convince Japan and Australia of its position.

The Joint Statement at the annual summit reads, “the prime ministers have expressed their serious concerns over the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and assessed its broader implications, particularly to Indo-Pacific region. They emphasised that the contemporary global order is based on UN charter, international law and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of the states…. They reiterated their call for an immediate cessation of violence and noted that there was no other choice but the path of dialogue and diplomacy for resolution of the conflict”.

Ironically, while the US is keen on eliciting India’s response to European security framework through its ally Japan, Prime Minister Modi has rightly shifted the focus of the summit to robust economic cooperation. Enunciating that both countries must work towards averting a Ukraine kind of situation in the Indo-Pacific, leaders discussed common threat in the region.

Addressing the shared concerns, both countries underscored the need for “stable and prosperous world, based on a rules-based order …. Emphasised the need for all countries to seek peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with international law without resorting to threat or use of force or attempt to unilaterally change status quo”.

Reflecting on the burgeoning Chinese bellicosity in the region, they emphasised- “importance of non-militarisation and self-restraint”. This statement further reinforces the observation of the US Indo-Pacific commander, Admiral John C Aquilino who expressed concerns over China’s muscle flexing. He observed, “China has fully militarised at least three of several islands its built in the disputed South China Sea, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment, and fighter jets in an increasingly aggressive move that threatens all nations operating nearby”.

At a time when Biden’s Russian obsession has veered the world away from China’s military aggression in the Indo-Pacific, reaffirming commitment to free and open Indo-Pacific, India has rightly highlighted the security threats in the region and called for “the full and effective implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and the early conclusion of a substantive and effective Code of Conduct in the South China Sea in accordance with international law, especially UNCLOS”.

PM Kishida welcomed PM Modi’s Indo-Pacific Oceans’ Initiative (IPOI) and proposed greater cooperation between IPOI and Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). To effectively uphold the vision of FOIP such as openness, rule of law, freedom, transparency and inclusiveness, both leaders reiterated their strong support for ASEAN’s unity and centrality and endorsed “ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)”.

Pandemic, besides inflicting a huge blow to economies, brought to fore the strategic weaponization of trade and crippling of global supply chain. To insulate economies and liberate them from coercion, as part of FOIP, India and Japan have resolved to power their economies with robust bilateral flow of trade and investments. India received first yen loan aid in 1958 and has been one of the major beneficiaries of Japan’s ODA (Official Development Assistance). Japan is fifth largest source of FDI.

In 2000 Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori established “Global Partnership between India and Japan”. In 2005, both countries have started annual summit meets and in 2006, Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh and Junichiro Kozumi elevated the relationship to “Global and Strategic Partnership”.  

In 2014, on the eve of Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to Japan for a summit meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, they upgraded these ties to “Special Strategic and Global Partnership”. Subsequently, Abe announced 3.5 trillion Yen investment in India over a period of five years.

Taking note of the steps taken by government of India to improve ease of doing business and business environment, Kishida announced an investment of 5 trillion Yen of public and private investment in India over a period of five years. To promote industrial cooperation in MSME and manufacturing, India and Japan have established India-Japan Industrial Competitive Partnership (IJICP) in November 2021.

To reduce dependence on China and build resilient and reliable supply chain, India, Japan and Australia initiated Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI) in April 2021.  Economic cooperation is a force multiplier and to infuse new momentum in bilateral ties, India and Japan are planning to review CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) for implementation. Making amendments in article 7 &13 of the CEPA, countries are contemplating the inclusion of surimi fish of India in the IJIICP roadmap. While robust investments have been the high point of India-Japan partnership, the bilateral trade of $16.95 is below the potential. In a welcome move, India approved the imports of Apples from Japan and Japan relaxed procedures to export Indian mangoes.

Besides shared interests, India and Japan have a common adversary, strengthening defence cooperation, countries welcomed operationalisation of the Agreement Concerning Reciprocal Provision of Supplies and Services between Indian Armed Forces and Japan’s self defense forces through bilateral and multilateral exercises like “Dharma Guardian” and “Malabar” respectively. But Japan still hobbled by a pacifist constitution isn’t forthcoming on defence cooperation as yet and both countries are still identifying potential areas of cooperation and collaboration in defense manufacturing and technology sectors.

True to quintessential global partnership, both countries more or less share common perspectives on countering terrorism. The Joint Statement condemned the state-sponsor terrorism of Pakistan in strongest terms and unequivocally harboured similar positions with regards to denuclearisation of Korean peninsula, realising peace and stability in Afghanistan, implementation of five-point consensus by Myanmar.

India and Japan part of the G 4, seeking permanent membership in an expanded UNSC sought for early reforms of the UNSC to reflect the contemporary realities of the 21st century and significantly affirmed to “accelerate its process, including through the commencement of text-based negotiations in the Inter-Governmental Negotiations (IGN) with an overall objective to achieve concrete outcomes in a fixed time frame.

Synergizing with India’s Act East Policy (AEF) and Japan’s vision for FOIP, countries have established Act East Forum in 2017 for promoting and developing India’s North East Region (NER) by way of improving connectivity within the region and between the region and the South East Asia. For sustainable development of the NER, the focus of AEF has been on improving agriculture through better irrigation, developing agro-based industries, food processing, improving health facilities, skill development and employment under Skill India, disaster resilience, development of tourism and cultural exchange, connectivity, new renewable energy, sustainable use of forest resources and cooperation in development of Urban areas.

As part of this grand initiative, both the leaders have launched “India-Japan Initiative for Sustainable Development of the North Eastern Region of India” which includes the “initiative for strengthening Bamboo Value Chain in the North East”. Bamboo is an inalienable part of the culture heritage of both countries and by marrying traditional skills with innovative design and branding, countries aim to promote the livelihoods of people in NER through Bamboo Value chain initiative.

Besides the progress made on four pillars of cooperation of the Quad-connectivity, Covid vaccines, emerging technologies and climate, India and Japan have renewed partnership towards sustainable development in the post Covid world. Countries have launched India-Japan Clean Energy Partnership in areas such as electric vehicles (EV), storage systems including batteries, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, solar energy, clean including green hydrogen/ ammonia, wind energy, exchange of view on energy transition plans, energy efficiency, carbon dioxide Capturing, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) and Carbon recycling.

To deliver on ambitious climate change and sustainable development goals, Japan and India have committed to the net carbon zero by 2070 and 2050 respectively. Accordingly, leaders are seeking to cement the cooperation on new and renewable energy. Emulating Japan’s Asia’s Energy Transition Initiative (AETI), countries are keen on tapping into low-carbon sunrise sectors, new technologies to reduce carbon emissions with an underlying vision of being secure, efficient, resilient and sustainable. Cooperation under this partnership will build on the work already carried under foundation of India-Japan Energy Dialogue in 2007.

Countries have signed Memorandum of Cooperation (MoC) in the field of Cyber security and MoU on seven JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) loans for connectivity, water supply and sewerage, health care and conservation projects in North East, decentralised domestic waste water management, sustainable urban development.

Pursuing national interest has been foundational pillar of Modi’s doctrine. Refusing to be drawn into the quagmires of the geopolitical ferment, wary of allying with any group, India is strategically seeking issue-based coalitions. Of late, India is intently solemnising bilateral trade, energy and investment agreements over multilateral pacts. Resisting coercion, threats and intimidation, India has by far firmly adopted a neutral stance on the Ukraine issue.

Though Kishida’s quick visit to India has been an inadvertent persuasive effort to convince India to support sanctions against Russia, through deft diplomacy, India deepened multisectoral cooperation with Japan. Imploring on the need to focus on the Indo-Pacific region, which is of immediate consequence to both countries, India reinfused trust and fresh energy into the partnership pivoted on shared interests and common threats.


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