America's debacle in Afghanistan has emboldened China and Russia. Besides creating a security vacuum in the region, the move accentuated muscular revisionism and impelled both countries to consolidate their “sphere of influence”. Under the shadow of America’s pull back from Afghanistan, China tightened its grip over Hongkong and intensified incursions on Taiwan while Russia sought to alter the post-Cold war security architecture of Europe.
In December contending that its relations with US and NATO allies are reaching a “dangerous point”, Moscow has submitted a proposal calling for a ban on NATO membership to Ukraine, removal of weapons deployment in the vicinity of Russia and stalling NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe. Moscow expressed interest to reach an agreement with the US directly instead of involving all its European allies, deeming it to be counterproductive.
Terming the security proposals unacceptable, Washington called Russia’s military build-up around Ukraine as preparation for an invasion and warned that Russia has to pay a “terrible price” should it invade Ukraine. It also rejected the offer for direct talks without its European allies. After Soviet Union collapse, the Baltic nations- Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia joined NATO in 2004. In 2008, President George W Bush backed NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine which border Russia.
While there isn’t any consensus among members over Ukraine’s entry into NATO, Moscow is threatened by the growing US-Ukraine military cooperation. On June 14th, in Brussels Summit Communique of NATO, US reaffirmed its “support to Ukraine’s right to decide its future foreign policy course free from outside interference, including with respect to Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO” and both the countries signed new defense cooperation agreement in September. The communique was released two days ahead of Biden-Putin summit at Geneva. Additionally, the joint Ukraine and the US military exercises, training of Ukrainian soldiers by US forces, annual military aid has only compounded Russia’s fears of growing Western influence in Ukraine.
With regards to troop deployment, Russia insisted that it has no intention to invade Ukraine and held two rounds of consultations with Russia-NATO council and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Permanent Council. Russia, France, Germany Ukraine held two rounds of Normandy Format meetings in Paris and Berlin respectively to deescalate tensions. President Biden’s references to Ukraine issue as “biggest crisis in Europe since the end of cold war” has sent the European nations such as Germany and France rallying for diplomacy.
Facing the double predicament of its security reliance on the US and energy dependence on Russia, Germany and France pursued diplomacy to deescalate tensions.
As the stalemate continued, NATO and the US ruled any boots on ground in Ukraine and refused security guarantees to Russia. Instead, the US dispatched 3000 troops, naval ships and warships to Eastern Europe, evacuated its civilians and diplomats from Ukraine citing looming threat of invasion by Russia.
High-decibel war rhetoric of Biden despite Ukraine underplaying the threats of Russian invasion, signalled a Cold War like obsession of the US, even as the real hegemon China continues to make fresh gains from American follies.
Ratcheting up the fear of imminent Russian invasion, Biden warned of severe economic sanctions and threatened to stop the Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Announcing a tentative date of invasion, Biden created a panic in global markets causing a massive surge of crude oil prices reaching $100 mark, for the first time since 2014. Needless to say, this ongoing confrontation is a reminiscent of the cold war times that has sent nations into tizzy.
While the distracted US and European diplomats are working overtime to mitigate the “imminent” Ukrainian invasion, America’s sanction regime and propaganda campaign has irretrievably cemented the Sino-Russian ties. China openly endorsed Russia’s military build-up in return for Beijing’s position on Taiwan.
While this Sino-Russo entente is a cause of concern for India, escalating confrontations at the Ukraine border has posed a bigger diplomatic predicament for India. India which has friendly ties with all the stakeholders- Russia, the US and Europe has a challenging task of not taking sides and remaining neutral as the crisis shows no signs of dying down. America’s war rhetoric caused the global meltdown of markets.
A convergence of shared interests and a burgeoning Chinese threat in the Indo-Pacific region brought India and the US closer. India’s special privileged partnership with Russia and its outlook of Moscow has been a major sticking point for Indo-US ties. Amid unabated Chinese aggression, US acknowledged India as the major driving force of the Quad and resisted invoking CAATSA against New Delhi despite S-400 purchase from Russia.
But America might wield the Damocles sword of CAATSA if Ukrainian crisis deteriorates. By extension an imposition of severe economic sanctions against Russia in an event of Ukraine invasion would jeopardise India’s plans of investments in Russia’s far east. Another round of sanctions besides leading to a complete breakdown of ties between Russia and the US would invariably drive Russia into Chinese tent. Eventually it will pave way for another axis comprising of Russia-China-Iran and Pakistan. Stalling of Nord Stream 2 will impact the global oil and gas prices paralysing India’s plans of revival of covid hit economy.
Wading the growing US-Russo tensions has presented itself as biggest test for Indian diplomacy now. Refusing to take sides and veering away from any kind of alignment, a hallmark of India foreign policy. In keeping with its strategic autonomy, on January 31st, India abstained voting on Ukraine issue and called for “immediate de-escalation of tensions ….. aimed towards securing long-term peace and stability in the region and beyond” and “urged all parties to continue to engage through all diplomatic channels and keep working towards the full implementation of the Minsk package”.
The joint statement of the recently concluded Quad meet of foreign ministers at Melbourne omitted any reference to Ukraine. But, at the media briefing, Blinken spoke about “Russian aggression” and Australia, Japan lent support to US. India stressed on diplomacy and drew attention to issues specific to Indo-Pacific region and Chinese aggression. Allaying the speculations of dissonance in the Quad over omission of Ukraine issue presumably on India’s insistence, MEA clarified, “India and the US had an honest conversation on Ukraine”.
In line with India’s objective approach, at Feb 17th UNSC meeting, Indian representative TS Tirumurti said, “Any steps that increase tension may best be avoided by all sides in the larger interest of securing international peace and security. Quiet and constructive diplomacy is the need of the hour. We reiterate our call for the peaceful resolution of the situation by sincere and sustained diplomatic efforts to ensure that concerns of all sides are amicably resolved through constructive dialogue”.
India’s statement at UNSC was perceived by commentariat as pro-Russian for refraining from criticising Russian actions. The import of that prejudicial understanding morphed into a political messaging of “you are either with or against us”, became evident at a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference 2022 attended by EAM.
An eloquent rebuttal by EAM at the panel discussion moderated by Dr Lynn Kuok who bombarded with a barrage of unfounded opinions (questions) provided a window to fathom popular discontentment towards India’s policy driven by national interests. In response to a question- how India is contributing towards European security since France and European generals are contributing towards Indo-Pacific security and apparently disapproving India’s abstention from voting on Ukraine at UNSC, EAM said, “Well, I don’t think the situations in the Indo-Pacific and the transatlantic are really analogous. Certainly, the assumption in your question that somehow there is a trade-off and one country does this in the Pacific so in return you do something else, I don’t think that’s the way international relations work”.
“We have quite distinct challenges, what is happening here or what is happening in the Indo-Pacific. In fact, if there was a connection by that logic you would have had lot of European powers already taking sharp positions in the Indo-Pacific. We didn’t see that. We haven’t seen that since 2009”.
By comparing the situation in Indo-Pacific to Ukraine crisis, the moderator displayed a poor understanding of the international affairs. It has been an overt attempt to pressurise India from choosing one strategic power over another. But the EAM astutely resisted all these insinuations.
Dissatisfied with EAM’s uncompromised stand of not siding with any power- the moderator imputed if India disagrees that principles, rules-based order, international law should apply across the world uniformly? Without battling an eyelid, EAM retorted, “No, I would say principles and interests are balanced and if people were so principled in this part of the World, they would have been practicing their principles in Asia or Afghanistan before we have actually seen them do”.
EAM’s sagacious diplomacy clinically punctured the western discourse of warranting India’s support to Ukraine issue as a trade-off for America’s and European nations pivot to Indo-Pacific. As rightly pointed out, till 2009, none of these countries never registered a protest or imposed any sanctions despite China’s aggression. Indeed, the countries woke up to China’s expansion years after Beijing mastered gobbling up new territorial forms in the South China Sea, South Asia and hindering free passage through its seas. For all their tirade against Russia, none of these even chided China for the Galwan issue or its massive standoff with India which is now over 22 months old.
At the time of writing, the Ukraine issue took a dramatic turn. President Putin signed a decree on recognition of Luhansk Peoples Republic and Donetsk People Republic. This prompted the US to immediately call for an emergency meeting of UNSC. At UNSC, expressing deep concern over escalation of tensions, prioritising the safety and security of 20,00 Indian students and nationals in Ukraine, India emphasised the vital need “to maintain international peace and security by exercising utmost restraint and intensifying diplomatic efforts to endure that mutually amicable solution is arrived at the earliest”.
Meanwhile, Germany suspended certification of Nord Stream 2 over Russian actions and US and UK are likely to announce fresh economic sanctions. Russian actions, which is a repeat of Crimean annexation, the US fixation on Russia and the employment of huge propaganda machinery in no uncertain terms, indicates that the cold war is not yet over.
Unlike in 2004 with a long-term energy supplies agreement of $117.5 billion with China, Moscow has effectively cushioned itself against sanction regime. Alongside, Russia and China during the inauguration of winter Olympics signed a statement affirming political support in actions against west. To weather possible cut-off from the Swift Payment system, reports state that Russia has developed an alternate payment system- System for Transfer of Financial Message (SPFs). Clearly, the game is on!!
Eruption of military conflict will leave little for diplomatic manoeuvring for India. New Delhi must carefully tread a middle ground to avoid getting drawn into this tangle.
No comments:
Post a Comment