After the collapse of Soviet Union, Central Asia has been relatively stable and several major players exuded great interest in the region for geopolitical gains. US private companies invested over $31 billion in the region and Washington continues to engage with the region through the C5+1 platform1. Beijing having established diplomatic ties with the region after the independence of Central Asian Republics (CARs), steadily stratified its investments under the flagship- Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI). While Russia considers CARs it exclusive, “near abroad” zone. Considered as “arena of great game” Iran, Turkey, Japan, Europe, EU, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India have vital stakes in the region.
Strategically located, the Central Asian Republics-
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are a vital
link between Asia and larger Eurasian landmass and play a great role in the
regional stability and peace. While several players operate in the region the
unrest in Kazakhstan in the first week of January critically exposed the fault lines
and the strong influence wielded by Russia in the region.
Though the reason for the sudden eruption of violence cannot
be pinned to a single issue. It has by and large exposed the frictional points
in the region- existence of an authoritarian deep state beneath the veil of
democracy, rampant corruption, huge financial inequalities, reactivation of
fundamentalist Islamist elements, deep penetration of foreign agencies in
administration and governance.
When severe protests threatened to derail the
government, Kazakhstan President Tokayev’s sought CSTO’s (Central Security
Treaty Organisation) assistance to bring country back to normalcy. Within days
of CSTO troop deployment, the unrest was quelled. Arrival of Russian forces has
inevitably established its larger influence over the region as security provider.
Interestingly, this incident has invariably threw spanner into China’s unbridled
run in asserting its dominance in Central Asia.
Along the recent development, the withdrawal of US
troops from Afghanistan and Taliban takeover has inexorably underscored the
importance of the CARs for regional stability. To counter the fledging
Pakistan-Taliban-China nexus in the aftermath of America’s evacuation from the
region, New Delhi has assiduously worked towards building close engagement with
CARs and Russia to contain the spill over effects of Taliban takeover of
Afghanistan.
India had a historical connect with the region which
includes cultural, religious, civilizational and economic linkages. Buddhism
from India spread to other countries through this region, the famous Silk Route
spanning the region has been a vital trade link. Mughals made their entry into
India through the Fergana Valley of Central Asia.
While Afghanistan is the top of agenda of India’s
potential engagement with CARs currently, in the post-Cold war era, India
established diplomatic ties to rebalance its foreign policy. In 2012, deeming
CARs as an “extended neighbourhood”, India launched “Connect Central Asia (CAA)”.
But the doctrine received a new lease for life with Prime Modi’s visit to all
the five republics in 2015, the first ever by any Indian Prime Minister. Considered
as a turning point, the visit reinvigorated India’s strategic ties with the
region.
India soon established Joint Working Groups with CARs
in the areas of Counter terrorism, trade and economic cooperation, defence and
military cooperation, information technology, hydrocarbons, textiles, space
cooperation, health, transport, connectivity and logistics to take the
relations forward.
Strategically positioned, rich in mineral resources
accessing the land locked region has been a major road block in the
India-Central Asia relations. India doesn’t physically share borders with the
region and Pakistan blocks India’s direct routes to Afghanistan and Central
Asia. Transit through China is time consuming and costly. To overcome this
block, India inked a trilateral agreement with Iran and Uzbekistan for the use
of Chabahar port and connectivity to International North South Transport
Corridor (INSTC) and joined the Ashgabat Agreement with governments of
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Iran, Oman and Pakistan for creating
International Transport and Transit Corridor (ITTC) in 2018.
Besides, India ramped up its engagement with Central
Asia as member of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Eurasian Economic
Union (EAEU). Additionally for building
comprehensive and enduring relations, a platform, India-Central Asia Dialogue
led by the foreign ministers held first meeting at Samarkand (Uzbekistan) in
2019 and launched India-Central Asia Business Council (ICABC) to promote trade
linkages. India adopted a broad-based framework- economic, political, cultural
and security connection to bolster relations with CARs. India announced $1
billion Line of Credit to widen energy and connectivity partnership2
during the second India-Central Asia dialogue held virtually.
Aside affirming cooperation in combatting terrorism,
India pledged to finance, high impact community development projects (HICDP) in
Central Asia for furthering socio-economic development. In tandem with the
continuous engagement, the third India-Central Asia dialogue, held in Delhi
reiterated strong support for “a peaceful, secure and stable Afghanistan” and
need for - exploring new vistas of cooperation to deepen strategic engagement
through 4Cs- Commerce, capacity building, connectivity and contact. This
encompassed cooperation in the arenas of security and terrorism, trade and
economy, development partnership, energy security, healthcare and climate
change3.
The Third India-Central Asia summit coincided with the
foreign ministers OIC meeting held by Pakistan. Interestingly, the CARs chose
to attend the Delhi dialogue as opposed to the Islamabad meet as a mark of
greater congruence with India’s perspective on geopolitical issues and
especially with regards to dealing with Taliban.
Marking the 30 years of establishment of diplomatic
ties with CAR, India invited the Presidents of CARs for Republic Day
celebrations. Amid the Covid threat while the visit of foreign dignitaries couldn’t
attend the event, ramping up the potential engagement, Prime Minister Narendra
Modi held the first ever India-Central Asia summit with the leaders of CARs
virtually on 27th January.
Commemorating the 30 years of diplomatic ties, the
Sides have issued joint postal stamps. The CAR leaders welcomed India’s offer
to establish India-Central Asia Centre that could serve as secretariat for
India-Central Asia Summit and noted the need to create India-Central Asia
Parliamentary Forum. India’s comprehensive relationship attempted to provide an
ambit of solutions including reliable support during pandemics under PM Modi’s
“One Earth One Health”.
Reiterating the crux of the strategic relationship,
Modi outlined the principle of “Support for All, Development for All, Trust for
All, Efforts for All” for regional development, peace and prosperity. Unlike
the empty ‘win-win’, India’s trademark inclusive and collaborative approach
with a focus on capacity building and human resource development has always
been well received by countries.
Connectivity can be a force-multiplier in terms of
boosting the economic and trade cooperation for land-locked countries.
Cognizant of CARs connectivity needs, India proposed establishment of Joint
Working Group on Chabahar port to address issues of free movement of goods and
services between India and CARs. Additionally, both sides have agreed to widen
the expanse of cooperation to a gamut of sectors- health, information
communication technology, establishment of IT/ITES Task Force, tourism,
education, youth exchange programs, digitization of manuscripts and film
festivals.
Counter terrorism has been another pivotal area of
strategic convergence between India and CARs. Taliban’s return to power has
only exacerbated the fears of resurgence of terrorism in the region. Concerns
of Pan-Islamic outfits gaining ground in Afghanistan and their eventual penetration
to the entire region through the porous borders has dismayed the CARs.
Reactivation of the groups besides threatening the regional peace is bound to
cumulatively increase narco-terrorism.
During the summit, leaders stressing the need for
achieving a ‘world free of terror’ underscored the importance of universalization
of Code of Conduct towards Achieving a World Free of Terror4
and for the first time acknowledged the “interconnection between security,
combating terrorism and development, thus facilitating the advancement of the
Sustainable Development Goals”.
For decades, India has been highlighting the need for
countering terrorism at every possible international forum. But countries sided
terror patrons or chose to ignore India’s repeated appeals for geopolitical
gains. The spirited acknowledgment of the perils of terrorism by CARs rightly
lends strength to New Delhi crusade against terrorism. Apart from calling for
early adoption of UN Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT),
leaders welcomed Tajikistan’s proposal to hold an International Conference
within the framework of “Dushanbe Process on countering financing of terrorism”
in October 2022. Agreeing to establish a Joint Working Group on Afghanistan at
Senior Officers level, the countries reiterated strong support for “a
peaceful, secure and stable Afghanistan” and noted with apprehension the
external interference of Pakistan in Afghanistan.
From security perspective, CARs are extremely
important for regional security and stability. Taliban’s return has changed the
delicate geopolitical balance in the region. India is welcomed in the region as
a counter balance to the assertive China against whom the disenchantment among
CAR has been growing. Aside its growing footprint, Beijing’s repression of
Kazakh and Kyrgyz Muslims along with Uighurs has only heightened anti-China
sentiments.
Russia which is miffed with Beijing’s presence in its
traditional backyard also favours India’s engagement with the region. For long
Pakistan enjoyed a special affinity with CARs due to religion connect. Now the
threat of fundamentalism to regional peace and Pakistan’s reputation of
state-sponsor terror has turned the CARs against Islamabad. On the contrary,
India has a good will in Central Asia. Wary of India’s sustained diplomatic
engagement, President Xi held virtual summit with CARs, ahead of Indian summit
and announced $500 million financial assistance over a period of three years.
Rolling out a framework for building robust diplomatic
ties with Central Asia, the biennial summit made a perfect beginning in the
right direction. Now, both sides must strive to renew and revitalize strategic
relations.
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