Spy Balloon Episode Exemplifies China’s ‘Grey Zone Tactics’

Casting a shadow over Zelenksy’s fawning of the European countries, the Chinese spy balloon has dominated the geopolitical discourse. The downing of China’s balloon flying at an altitude of 60,000 ft near the coast of the Atlantic course has shifted the global focus to the unrelenting trade and technology disputes between the US and China.

The high-voltage meeting between President Biden and President Xi has sparked hope of a new turn in their relations. The long pending meeting between the US Secretary of State Blinken and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi would have infused a new momentum into the ties that went south. But the hovering of a spy balloon for over a week over America has not only ignited suspicions of China’s grey-zone tactics but also led to a rare unity and an unequivocal strategic consensus on US policy towards China.

In the past eight days, four high-flying objects over the US were shot down leading to the cancellation of diplomatic talks and China’s refusal to take a call from the US Defence Secretary underscoring the fragility of the relationship. This led to the further deterioration of an already tenuous relationship.

On February 10^th, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution unanimously 419-0 that termed the entry of the spy balloon a “clear violation of US sovereignty and international law”¹. Rejecting the condemnation of the resolution by the US House of Representatives, China called it, “purely political manipulation and hyping up”². In reality, the overflight across a territory without permission is clearly a violation of international laws and several analysts believe that China was testing the limits with its diplomatic offensive.

Citing the 1944 Chicago Convention of International Aviation, aviation experts indicated that the US was well within its authority to take down the balloon under the prescribed upper limit of flying 60,000 ft under the exclusive right of sovereignty over its territory which extended 12 nautical miles³. China persisted that the balloon is a ‘civilian unmanned ship’ and part of weather research and to substantiate its claims Beijing sacked the Weather Bureau Chief, Zhuang Guotai. But clearly, the balloon which was 3-4 bus size with five antennae and steered by solar power with high manoeuvrability was not force majeure.

Taking a serious note of the US downing of the spy balloon, Beijing said, “In these circumstances, for the United States to insist on using armed force is clearly an excessive reaction that seriously violates international convention” the statement said. “China will resolutely defend the legitimate rights and interests of the enterprise involved, and retains the right to respond further”.

Indeed, propping up charges, Secretary Blinken stated, “the spy balloon is part of the fleet of surveillance balloons that have flown over 40 countries in five countries” and added, “we already shared the information with dozens of countries across the world, both from Washington and through our embassies”⁴ during NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg’s visit to Washington. Further, hours after the F-22 shot down the second ‘high altitude object’, the US sanctioned six companies identified with the Chinese reconnaissance project.

Chinese surveillance balloon program operating out of Hainan province has collected information on military assets of Japan, India, Vietnam and the Philippines. Taiwan has reported having seen them last year and Indian agencies have also recorded a sighting of a mystery balloon over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Jan 6^th, 2022. The downing of four spy balloons in eight days by the US punctured China’s rather insincere defense with Colombia also reporting a spy balloon over its territory.

Taking the wind out of the speculations of the high-altitude objects being UFOs, the US agencies confirmed that they bore no indications of alien or extra-terrestrial nature though the origin of them remains to be confirmed. Clearly, China has resurrected this old-age practice of espionage using balloons. Now Ukraine’s air force claims to have shot six Russian spy balloons with reconnaissance equipment and corner reflectors intended to damage the air defence systems of Kyiv⁵.

The use of balloons for surveillance is not a recent development. It has been in vogue since the 19^th century for reconnaissance missions. Even before the days of World War II countries attempted to use balloons for spying. Japan used Fu-Go balloons to drop bombs. Indeed, the only loss of life in continental America during WW II was by balloon bombs that killed six which included five children in Oregon⁶. Considered the first successful intercontinental weapons, balloons were a mainstay during the Cold war era.

But somehow, the interest in balloons soon waned and with the advent of space technology countries deployed a constellation of satellites for surveillance. Balloons complement satellite surveillance and escape the radar. While the balloon had the special advantage of being cost-effective, having less footprint, providing high precision images and better monitoring of a limited area, possible drifting, unreliable recovery of stored information and public operation doesn’t make it a reliable option.

Surveillance is an undeniable reality. With the availability of technology, countries are using a panoply of devices and weapons to keep an eye on allies, friends and adversaries. Both US and China surveil each other. Through sophisticated networks, China penetrated American security systems which reached a tipping point in 2015 when it hacked into the Office of Personnel Management and big companies. But the US continued to soft-pedal them.

China’s bold attempt of open spying with the balloon drifting over the critical American infrastructure has indeed ticked off the public reaction. The imagery of a spy balloon has hit the consciousness of the woke community and the deniers who peddled a non-existent China threat. The bipartisan condemnation resolution validates the same. A section of the intelligence that deluded into ‘they are not yet there’ are now concerned.  

At the risk of sparking a bilateral crisis, with its brazen spying, China has openly challenged the rules-based order. With its reputation at stake, the US shot down the spy balloon.  Despite the murmurs of the US overreaction, this spy balloon episode ignited fresh debate on China’s audacity and belligerence.

The spy balloon episode brought to the fore the standard operation protocol of the Dragon familiar to the Indian subcontinent. While strategic experts of the West reason out the appearance of the surveillance balloon ahead of the crucial talks between the US and China, this is hardly surprising to India. China’s intrusive and intimidating tactics have always shadowed the major India-China summit meetings. Coercion has been integral to China’s foreign policy and the West is perhaps, getting the taste of it through these surveillance balloons.

The timing of the balloon, days after the US revived its military alliance with the Philippines and ahead of Blinken’s visit is admittedly, President Xi’s signature ‘strategic signalling’. Operating just below the threshold of conflict has been fundamental to Dragon’s escalation tactics. Signalling disapproval over the Philippines’ rapidly improving relations with the US China resorted to arm-twisting tactics. Chinese coast guard ship used a ‘military-grade’ laser against the Philippines vessel. Manila lodged a serious protest with China as the laser temporarily blinded the Philippines crew trying to resupply troops based on the Second Thomas Shoal⁷. 

After America turned its attention to the Indo-Pacific and began renewing ties with allies and friends in the region, China intensified salami-slicing along the Indo-Pacific border. Banking on the American politicians’ tendency to turn any Chinese concern as a weapon in partisan domestic fights, China is now daringly venturing into the American strategic sphere of influence. Callously escalating ‘grey-zone tactics’ China is challenging the dominant superpower, the US.

This spy balloon has invariably reinforced China’s utter disregard for international rules and demolished the myth of ‘peaceful rise’ forever.

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Bharat: India 2.0

A good book should plant a new idea, and propose a new theory that can make a reader think. Precisely, this is what the book, “Bharat: India 2.0” authored by Prof Gautam Desiraju has successfully accomplished. Prof Desiraju, a world leader in crystallography with several scientific contributions to his name has always advocated for Indianness. While it would be rather unconventional to begin the review of the book based on the professional training of the author. The copious amounts of footprints, replete with scientific terminology and atypical definitions of terms like nation-state and civilisation state in a refreshingly new perspective assert the same.

As a concerned citizen, marshaling his attributes as a researcher, the author embarks on a quest to identify the incongruities, fractures and divides in the body politic of the nation and gets convinced of the root cause of these maladies to the Constitution. Indeed, over 105 amendments to the constitution over seven decades of independence have further strengthened this conviction. Meticulously delving into the antecedents of the Constitution, the author rightly identifies the ominous shadow of the partition on its promulgation. In this book, Prof Desiraju lists out seven major concerns and notably, he raises a flag over – “the fact that our 5000-year civilisation and more pointedly Sanatana Dharma is not within the warp and woof of the document with only fleeting, even token, acknowledgments, say through the well-known illustrations by Nandalal Bose for the page borders” (p-101).

Sanatana Dharma is the defining feature of India and is built on the foundation of Dharma. Dharma coded in the shastras is the Sanatana Dharma which Westerners call Hinduism. Deploying his domain expertise says, “Dharma is fundamental to our existence as is its converse in the physical world, the second law of thermodynamics which governs the progression of things from order to randomness. Like the second law, there will be many definitions of dharma”. (p-98)

Spanning over 340 pages, the book is divided into five chapters. Aflush with logical thinking, the free-wheeling discussion style of writing, generously peppered with major European historical events and with appropriate references from Upanishadic excerpts -Brihadaranyaka Upanishad, Mundaka Upanishad, Shukraneeti, Lalithasahasranamam (dharmadhara-dhandkyaksha-dhanadhanavivardhini) the book makes for a delightful read.

Among the inherent flaws, Prof Desiraju rues framers’ overarching importance to the constitution than the future of the country and the absence of any vision. Unfortunately, the Constitution, which should be a document reflecting the aspirations, anxieties and offering governing solutions in the Indian way, has been a “patchwork quilt” of Western frameworks.

Among the many inherent maladies of the constitution, the book makes an interesting mention of Nehru’s reply to JB Kriplani who chides the former for his strident attack on Hindu communalism and soft-peddling of Muslim communalism.

During the passage of the Hindu Code Bill (1955), Nehru defends his stance terming, “because majority communalism is far more dangerous since it could easily pass off as Indian nationalism”. This political preference dominated and continues to dominate the Indian political landscape fervidly buttressed under the façade of secularism even now. This penchant eventually paved way for the sly insertion of secularism in the preamble two decades later by his daughter.

Distilling the Constitution into an easily understandable format, devoid of critical legal jargon, Prof Desiraju has succinctly brought to the fore various flaws that are to be remedied. In chapter 4, he describes the causes of illness that afflicted the body politic of India, the symptoms and nature of the disease, offers a medication and suggests a cure, instinctive of a seasoned researcher.

Expounding “our civilization is a powerful glue”, Prof Desiraju proposes that attempt must be made to “link civilization with the overwhelmingly rich diversity”. To reinforce how critically diversity can be captured to foster the feeling of one whole, he broaches about revolutionary painting technique Pointillism or impressionism pioneered by Georges Seurat. Also called Divisionism, this modern art form involves the use of small and sharper dots to create aesthetic paintings.

India can adopt the Pointillist approach of creating 75 small states based on a common ethnicity, language, and culture that enhances self-worth, linguistic pride and self-development. Redrawing of the states should be carried out in a way to prevent the political control from falling into the hands of regional satraps, facilitate easy administration and also pave way for healthy interaction with the Centre. Centre-state at loggerheads and states arm-twisting the centre marauded the federal nature of the constitution. Hence small states with optimal population size and diversity besides augmenting the country’s potential can promote true federalism.

Practically giving shape to his idea, the book puts forth a map containing states with names mentioned in the Mahabharata- Hastinapur, Braj, Panchal, Awadh, Kasi, Magadh, Avanti, Vidharba. This attempt to connect the ancient with the modern is the true essence of Santana Dharma, which is timeless, ancient and eternal.

Prof Desiraju says “civilisation is hard power” and for India to evolve as a major power, the country must consciously make an attempt to decolonise and positively affirm our civilisational identity. At 75, India is on a cusp of a new change. Notwithstanding the fractures and fissures within, aspirational India is pregnant with a new hope. It is heartening that his new change is kindled by a body of scholarly works authored by a tribe of passionate thinkers, scholars, change-makers and intellectuals from various walks of life. This book is a wonderful addition to this existing body of new genres of scholarship that is unequivocally catalysing a new churn and a latent renaissance to reassert our identity and civilisational values.

Postulating a need for coherence and cohesion through a hybrid of Bharatiya and Anglosphere, Bharat: India 2.0 puts forth a new framework “for re-establishment of dharma in this ancient land as a means for its exponential rise as a nation in years to come”. Prof Desiraju summarises- “in the context of this book, two laws have been invoked, the second law of thermodynamics from the physical world and the Law of Dharma from the metaphysical one. The first takes a system from order to dissipation. The second, its converse, takes a system from disorder to a perfect organisation. The equilibrium between these two laws literally controls the deconstruction and integration of the entire universe” (p-339).

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Elevating Ties to Strategic Partnership with Egypt, India Bolster’s “Link West” Policy

India extended an official invitation to the Egyptian president Abdel Fattah Sisi to be the chief guest for the 74^th Republic Day Celebrations. Inviting Egypt for the first time signifies the importance India attaches to the country. After UAE, Egypt has become the second Arab country to grace the Republic Day Parade. Modi scripted a new chapter by inviting UAE in 2017 which was accompanied by the participation of the UAE contingent in the Republic Day parade. Emulating the same tradition, a contingent of Egyptian armed marched in the Republic Day parade. As the current President of the G20, India invited Egypt as the guest country for the 2023 G20 summit.

In contravention to the bigoted aspersions cast on the current dispensation as a nationalist Hindu party, Modi proactively steered the Link West policy by revitalizing engagement with the Middle East, and moderate Sunni Muslim countries. Undaunted by the ‘religion card’ ostensibly raked up by Pakistan, the Modi government consistently stepped-up economic engagement and trade with Arab countries-Jordan and Saudi Arabia and successfully sealed an FTA with the UAE. The realisation of the strategic significance of the region as opposed to the dogmatic perception of the Middle East as a labour market and source of energy supplies has prompted India’s foreign policy recalibration.

Straddling two continents- Asia and Africa, Egypt is the largest and the most populous Arab country. It is central to the strategic Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Horn of Africa and Suez Canal theatres and the gateway to Africa with strong links with the Arab World and the Eastern Mediterranean countries.

India has crucial interests in Suez Canal as nearly one-fourth, i.e. $200 billion of India’s global trade passes through it. Having turned into a conflict zone with the proliferation of terror and militant outfits, the Red Sea is on verge of becoming a choke point with several countries in the region steadily establishing bases along the Horn of Africa.

In response to these maritime security challenges and to bolster its control over the Red Sea, Egypt has expanded the operations of Southern base-Berenice in 2020, another base in Gargoub region, in the North in 2021¹ and Eastern Port Said². Egypt is thus pivotal and capable of influencing the outcomes on many fronts and can be viable partner in terms of maritime cooperation for India.

Sisi who came to power in 2014 introduced a slew of economic reforms in 2016 that significantly stabilized the Egyptian economy. It is steadily emerging as a key player in West Asia. Clocking a 6.6% growth rate in the post-pandemic year (2021-22)³, Egypt has been on the path to economic prosperity. But the surging grain prices post-Ukraine crisis hit Egypt, a major importer of wheat. While UAE and Saudi Arabia pledged $20 billion and $15 billion investments respectively, India has become a major source of wheat.  Despite the self-imposed ban on wheat due to a production decline forecast, India exported 61,500 tons of Wheat to Egypt⁴.

Indeed, a host of global challenges- the Pandemic, the Ukraine invasion in the recent past have laid bare the chinks in the existing global order. The great powers failed to be effective guarantors of neither security nor drivers of development. Multilateralism crumbled. To realize shared objectives, the regional and middle powers began to stitch new mini-laterals to address specific and limited issues. This eventually led to the genesis of the Quad, AUKUS, India-France-UAE.

I2U2 which started off with a meeting of foreign ministers of India, Israel, UAE and the US in October 2021, quickly transitioned into a cogent group with the first-ever virtual summit of leaders by July 2022. Keen on upholding their strategic autonomy, middle powers are shaping a multipolar world through mini-laterals to actively leverage their strengths for geopolitical and geoeconomic domains. The inception of I2U2, based on the Indo-Abrahamic geopolitical framework proposed by strategist Mohammed Soliman⁵ has uniquely brought together two major countries of West Asia together. This consolidation soon drew a chorus from strategic corridors in Egypt for collaboration with India. India’s supply of covid vaccines and Egypt’s shipment of medical supplies to New Delhi during the peak covid wave and the wheat export post the Ukraine crisis added fresh impetus to explore and deepen the bilateral relationship.

Civilisational states India and Egypt had deep-rooted cultural and trade ties for centuries. Both countries endured freedom struggles and their fight against British colonialism even brought nations together. Post-independence leaders Jawaharlal Nehru and Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser laid the foundation for the Non-Aligned Movement. Together both leaders championed liberation movements across the world. India-Egypt amiability suffered a roadblock following a protocol glitch at the 1983 NAM Summit in India. With the visit to President Hosni Mubarak 25 years later in 2008, the relations returned to normalcy.

The year 2022, marked 75 years of the establishment of ties between both countries. Coincidentally the visit of three Indian senior Ministers to Egypt last year laid the ground for revitalizing India-Egypt ties. In September 2022, India and Egypt signed MoU on Defence Cooperation for coproduction, exchange of technology and sharing of best practices during Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to Cairo. EAM Jaishankar on his first visit to Egypt as the foreign minister in October 2022, besides extending India’s support to Sharm-El-Sheikh COP 27 conference, reviewed ties and explored opportunities in renewable energy, trade, tourism and connectivity. In November 2022, Environment Minister Bhupendra Singh attended the COP 27 conference and reaffirmed India’s commitment to climate action.

Additionally, the behemoth challenge posed by the extremist ideologies during the Arab Spring of 2011 to the region impelled leaders of Egypt, UAE, and Saudi Arabia to strongly contest radical Islamists and steer the countries towards an inclusive society. While Turkey and Qatar continue to support the radical Muslim Brotherhood fronts, moderate Sunni countries are promoting social reforms. Countering extremist narratives finds resonance with India, a victim of terrorism and violent Islamist radicalism.

President Sisi arrived in New Delhi on a three-day visit on Jan 24^th  accompanied by five ministers and a high-level delegation. This is Sisi’s third visit to India- in 2015, Sisi attended the Third Indo-African Forum Summit and in September 2016, he made a state visit.  On his second state visit Egyptian President held delegation-level and restricted talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

India-Egyptian bilateral ties have four major pillars- Political and security cooperation; trade and economic engagement; scientific and academic collaboration and cultural cooperation.

Defence cooperation is integral to security cooperation. Reaffirming the need for military-to-military engagement, countries have encouraged a steady interaction through training, joint military exercises and high-level visit. Accordingly, countries have commenced the maiden Joint Exercise of Strategic Forces ‘Exercise Cyclone -1’ currently underway in Rajasthan.  India has invited Egypt to ‘Bright Star’ trilateral joint exercises to be held in September 2023. Indian Air Force participated in the first ever ‘Joint Tactical Air Exercises’ in Egypt in 2021 and Egyptian Air Force’s ‘Tactical Leadership Program’ in June 2022⁶.

Counter-terrorism cooperation featured as another aspect of political and security cooperation. Facing common challenges of terrorism, countries have called for zero tolerance towards terrorism and condemned the use of terrorism as foreign policy.

As of 2021, the bilateral trade between both countries is valued at $7.26 billion, a 75% increase from last year. India is the seventh largest trade partner of Egypt⁷. Considering the scope for diversification of trade, leaders have set a target of $12 billion in bilateral trade in the next five years. Indian investments in Egypt are over $3.15 billion and in his address to Indian business leaders, Sisi welcomed more investments and proposed the possibility of allocating land in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCEZ).

Countries agreed to expand cooperation in the field of space, agriculture, food processing, satellite launching, and joint production of pharmaceuticals and underscored the need for open, free, stable, accessible, safe, trusted and accountable cyberspace. Driven by their commitment to climate action, countries affirmed their resolve to expedite the clean energy transition and cooperation in renewable energy. Sisi expressed support for Modi’s ‘Mission LiFE’ while Modi commended Sisi’s ‘Go Green Initiative’. Trade in the rupee, food, energy and fertiliser security also found a place in the bilateral agenda.

Countries also exchanged commemorative stamps to mark 75 years of diplomatic ties and five MoUs. These include- MoU on cybersecurity between the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team and the Egyptian Computer Emergency Readiness Team; cooperation in Information Technology; cooperation in Youth Matters; field of culture and cooperation on Broadcasting between Prasar Bharati and the National Media Authority of Egypt ⁸.

In a media statement PM Modi said, “at one side of the Arabian Sea is India and on the other side is Egypt. Strategic cooperation between the two countries will help in promoting peace and prosperity in the entire region. So, in today’s meeting, President Sisi and I decided to elevate our bilateral partnership to the level of “Strategic Partnership””⁹. With this, Egypt has joined the select group of countries with which India develops a strategic blueprint for greater cooperation.

The US is slowly retracting from West Asia and delegating the security challenges to the regional powers. The I2U2 is an outcome of that predicament. To fill this vacuum, besides cementing trade links and connectivity, China is stretching into the strategic space as well. Given the impending demographic decline and a slump in the economic growth of China, West Asia is seeking strategic relations with “less contentious partners”, with a demographic edge, and huge market potential, Egypt finds India “an agreeable partner”.

In this context, it would be pertinent to note that strategic ambiguity has been the cornerstone of Egypt’s foreign policy. Given its thriving trade links with China, India had to grapple for its space in the region and especially in Egypt as well. As a moderate and influential voice in the Islamic World that advocates zero tolerance toward terrorism and commands a huge impact across four strategic theatres, Egypt can be a potential partner for India.

Unlike Turkey, which has decided to form a committee on Kashmir and pass a resolution toeing the Pakistani line¹⁰, at the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Egypt hasn’t supported Pakistani policies and maintained a studied silence on the Nupur Sharma episode. Also, with the discovery of new gas fields and oil wells in Egypt, it can be a source of energy and fertilizer supplies to India¹¹. India’s attempts to potentially diversify its partnership with Egypt can thus, augur well to pursue its national interests.

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India Ratchets up International Counter-terrorism Engagements

 

Terrorism not only grievously impacts human life but uproots the very foundation of humanity

-Kofi Annan 

Since independence, India has been haunted by the scourge of terrorism. Terrorism in various forms and manifestations continued to cripple the progress, unity, and harmony of the country. Till the last decade, organized, established, transnational terror networks have been the fountain heads of terror attacks across the globe. Though there has been a marginal dip in attacks from designated terror outfits, of late there is a sudden spurt in terror attacks by radicalized individuals. Individuals with no traceable links or affiliations to well-established terror outfits are now launching attacks. This trend of “lone wolves” attacks has been on a rise.

The use of terrorism as a strategic weapon and foreign policy by some nations is well established. But threats from indoctrinated individuals are posing a fresh challenge. The Coimbatore blast last month and the Mangaluru autorickshaw blast a few days ago aptly reflect this ostensible change.  Besides a lurking threat of attacks from the organized terrorist network which continues to claim the lives of innocent people, the world is now baffled by the latest tribe of “DIY or freelance terrorists”. These random, isolated attacks by groups and individuals with no affiliation to any recognized terror group and seemingly bereft of underlying motivational factors are making matters worse.

Over the years, countries developed effective counterterrorism strategies to combat the threats from organized terror groups and achieved reasonable success in curbing the terrorist forces. The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2022 noted that of the 5226 terrorist attacks recorded in 2021, 52% were attributed to a group¹ indicating a drastic shift in the mode of operation. Due to significant restrictions on the movement during Covid, terror groups started co-opting advanced technology to spread their ideology, radicalization, recruitment process and widening the funding sources.

Also, while there has been a significant decrease in the number of terror attacks in the West and European countries, a substantial increase is witnessed in South Asia. The withdrawal of US forces and the ascent of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan coupled with Pakistan’s exit from the FATF’s grey list, the region is likely to turn the region into a hotbed of terror. Together, by adopting open-source, accessible, cheap advanced technologies, the non-state extremist forces are expanding their reach like never before. Harnessing emerging technologies, terrorist forces are achieving their strategic goals.

Recognising the need for collective efforts to combat terror, India has appealed to countries to collectively charter global counter-terrorism strategies. India first mooted the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) in 1996 and steered counter-terrorism efforts. But the negotiations are deadlocked due to differences over the definition of terrorism. Surrounded by states that weaponise terrorism, India has been consistently working with like-minded countries to develop a framework to address the various aspects of terrorism.

In its two-year tenure at UNSC, India held an open debate on counterterrorism and proposed an eight-point action. Sustaining the collective momentum and reaffirming the need for resolute action against terrorism, India conducted three international meetings to deliberate on this menace and evolve some strategies/ frameworks.

India hosted the four-day-long 90^th INTERPOL General Assembly from Oct 18-21 in New Delhi followed by the UNSC’s Special meeting of the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC) in Mumbai and New Delhi on October 28-29. The Ministry of Home Affairs held the third ministerial ‘No Money for Terror’ on Nov 18-19 in New Delhi. At these meetings, India has highlighted the unabated cross-border terrorism threats, and potential challenges faced by law enforcement and intelligence agencies in tracking the metamorphosed form of terrorist threat emanating from radicalized individuals. Terrorist elements are now using the dark web, encrypted chat forums that evade scrutiny of surveillance agencies to propagate their agenda. Besides leveraging social media, and the internet, they are now using emerging technologies like AI, 3D printing, and deep fake to disseminate terrorist activities.

While INTERPOL’s mandate doesn’t include counterterrorism, it keeps a check on the illicit financial flow which is essential for committing a crime. Besides, INTERPOL plays a crucial role in connecting agencies of 195 countries through secure communication channels and guarantees more rapid communication including sharing financial data.  INTERPOL’S Financial Crime and Anti-Corruption Centre (IFCACC) works closely with other stakeholders which include FATF (Financial Action Task Force), FATF Style Regional Bodies (FSRBs), the Egmont Group of Financial Intelligence Units (FIUs), law enforcement agencies, police agencies and the financial sector².

Using the information gathered from the member countries INTERPOL’s dedicated Financial Crime Analysis File (FinCAF) provides actionable intelligence and timely threat assessments related to organized criminal activities and financial crimes³. Prior information on cross-border financial transactions can help in tracking organized crimes including potential terrorist activities. INTERPOL is a repository of information containing the details of personal data and criminal activities and its database- SLTD (Stolen Lost Travel Documents)- has been very effective in catching terrorists traveling with fraudulent documents to cross borders⁴.

As pointed out by PM Modi, “A terrorist is an individual, but terrorism is about a network of individuals”, terrorism thrives on many aspects- drug trafficking, narco-terrorism, kidnappings, cyber radicalization etc. Hence monitoring of terrorist groups involves close coordination between different agencies. With terrorism no longer limited to any specific geography, global coordination is needed to eliminate the safe havens of terror.

At the 90^th INTERPOL General Assembly India effectively shaped its agenda and appealed to explore the linkages between criminal syndicates and terrorism. PM Modi in his address stated, “Global cooperation for local welfare is our call. Let communication, collaboration and cooperation defeat crime, corruption and terrorism”⁵.

At the UNCTC special session on “Countering the use of new and emerging technologies for terrorist purposes”, hosted by the Ministry of External Affairs, India voiced concerns about the internet and social media turning into “potent instruments in the toolkit of terrorist and militant groups” facilitating the spread of radicalisation and conspiracy theories that are destabilizing societies.

Concluding the session, India rolled out a framework and essential guidelines, The Delhi Declaration, to protect civilized societies from the menace of terrorism. Exhorting the Member States the need to ensure zero tolerance, the declaration noted with concern the use of communication technologies, financial technologies, and crowdfunding platforms, to recruit, indoctrinate and radicalise people.

Cognizant of the close links between drug and arms trafficking, the declaration acknowledged the misuse of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), drones, and quadcopters that increased the accessibility of both drugs and weapons at a very low cost. The non-binding declaration urged States to counter the misuse of emerging technologies by non-state actors for terrorist activities through innovative technologies and develop counter-terrorist narratives while respecting international law.

Recognising the work of FATF’s work on virtual assets and virtual assets service providers (VASP) in monitoring payment services and discharge of anti-money laundering measures, the declaration called upon the watchdog to improve the global implementation of counter-terrorist financial measures. Concomitantly, the declaration even called on States to enhance the traceability and transparency of financial transactions and encouraged financial intelligence services to develop effective partnerships with financial service providers, social media agencies, to track the sources and methods of financing terrorism⁶.

Terrorism thrives on the oxygen of an uninterrupted flow of finances and hence “following the money” is crucial for counter-terrorism strategies. To help counter the financing of terrorism, France sponsored a UNSC 2462 binding resolution to “Combat, Criminalize Financing of terrorists and their activities” which was passed unanimously on March 28, 2019. To strengthen international efforts, for the first time, Paris held the ‘No Money for terror (NMFT)’ ministerial conference in 2018. The second conference was held in 2019 in Melbourne, Australia. The third conference scheduled to be hosted by India in 2020 was postponed due to Covid.

This year, the Ministry of Home Affairs organized the conference in New Delhi on Nov 18-19, which was attended by 78 countries, 20 ministers and representatives from various multilateral agencies like FATF, INTERPOL, EUROPOL and NGOs.

According to the IMF, the money laundered globally is 2% to 5% of Global GDP which roughly translates into $800 to $2 trillion⁷. Even if a fraction of this money is diverted to terrorism, the damage will be enormous. Following the ‘money trail’ is thus inevitable to curb terrorism. France established FATF in 1989 to stop the illicit flow of finances to criminal activities.

In 2019, FATF notified that private sectors should apply the AML (Anti-Money Laundering)/CFT (Counter terrorist financing) measures for virtual asset service providers to obtain and exchange information on senders and beneficiaries along with all transfers which are mandatory for normal wire transfers. NMFT backed these recommendations and sought global cooperation.

Building on the progress made in the previous two conferences, the current edition of NMFT -focussed on – Global trends in terrorism and terrorist financing; the use of formal and informal channels of funding for terrorism; emerging technologies and terrorist financing and international cooperation to address challenges on combatting terrorist financing.

The fervent push for digitization across the countries during the covid has inadvertently prompted terrorist elements to seek alternatives for money transfers. These include both formal and informal channels, the dark web on the net, cryptocurrencies, and the use of crowdsourcing platforms. The dark web brought professional hackers and terrorists together making the traceability of terror financing very arduous. Terrorist groups are capitalizing on the lack of universal consensus over the laws regarding cybercrimes and weak control mechanisms on social media to carry out seamless money transfers. Along these issues, the conference has deliberated on the misuse of non-profit, non-governmental organizations as a front for terrorist activities.

At the NMFT conferences, India has committed to remain the focal point for international cooperation on “Countering Terrorism and Combatting Financing of terrorism”. Expressing disappointment over nations rendering the UN terrorism sanctions ineffective for political reasons and turning blind eye to state-sponsored terrorism, India proposed a five-pillar approach to combat financing of terrorism.  

These include- a comprehensive framework for cooperation, coordination, and collaboration between all investigative and intelligence agencies; strategy of “Trace, target and terminate”; strengthening and harmonizing legal structures related to terror finance; robust mechanism against the misuse of next-generation technology; strengthening the legal and regulatory framework of asset recovery⁸.

Calling on members to adopt a “beyond the borders” cooperation approach, India mooted the need for the establishment of a permanent secretariat for NMFT to sustain the global focus on countering the financing of terrorism. Relentless in combatting terrorism and warning against any ambiguity in countering terrorism, PM Modi said, “the intensity of the reaction to different attacks cannot vary based on where it happens. All terrorist attacks deserve equal outrage and action… there is no good terrorism and bad terrorism. It is an attack on humanity, freedom, and civilisation. It knows no boundaries. Only a uniform, unified and zero-tolerance approach can defeat terrorism”⁹.

Revelations of cryptocurrency angle in the recent Mangaluru blast case and the use of Onion Router enabled (TOR) dark web for the transfer of funds from a Middle East Operator resonates with India’s concerns about the weaponization of emerging technologies by terrorist groups. Deployment of advanced technologies warrants the need for better forensics, surveillance mechanisms, expertise in cyber technologies, and above all global coordination to track the finances.

To uproot terrorism, global cooperation is indispensable. To effectively design a frame for counter-terrorism cooperation, there should be an explicit consensus over the definition of terrorism. Home Minister Amit Shah in his concluding remarks at NMFT underscored the same- “all countries will have to agree on one common definition of ‘terrorism’ and ‘terror financing’. It is an issue of the protection of our citizens, and their human and democratic rights, it should not become a political issue”.

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Shraddha Walkar’s Murder: A Rude Wakeup Call

The grisly murder of Shraddha Walkar in the national capital which came to light five months after the incident sent the nation into shock. The mind-numbing brutality and gut-wrenching monstrosity have few parallels in recent times. This has heightened the fears of the lurking dangers in society and unabated violence against women.

A decade ago, the gangrape of a paramedical student in a moving bus in the national capital shook the nation. People from all walks of life hit the roads and pressurized the government of the day to bring out legislation warranting an exemplary punishment to deter such crimes. Indeed, the influential opinion-makers implored the foreign media to pronounce a judgment on the precarious safety of women and hell broke loose until the international agencies pronounced Delhi as the rape capital of the world.

But a decade later, Shraddha’s grotesque murder in the national capital hardly evoked any response from the commentariat, the feminists, and the apostles of human rights that regularly descend on the political dispensation to bring justice to the victim. What has changed now? Why is there a muted silence now and what explains the comatose lethargy of the elitists in unequivocally condemning the most heinous incident to date? Why it is now inconvenient for people to objectively assess this case?

Amid a threatening rise in violent attacks on non-Muslim women especially by the members of a particular community, the saviours of humanity have donned a strategic silence. Genuine concerns are being rubbished as unwarranted fears and attaching fancy labels the perpetrators are even sheltered from any scrutiny. Deeming these concerns as bigotry while they are brushed under carpet, a similar pattern of attacks against women is witnessed across the globe.

In the past week, a Hindu woman trapped in a relationship was chopped into pieces and dumped in sewage in Bangladesh¹. On the other side of the globe, another incident with close parallels surfaced in California². Refusing to give in to ‘political correctness’ UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak vowed a major action in tackling the ‘grooming gangs’.  While recent conviction and deportation of members of the grooming gang members offered some hope in UK in this direction, the reticence of societies in calling out the crimes for what they are is emboldening the perpetrators.

Back in India, there has been an exponential rise in attacks on Hindu women in interfaith relationships. Appearance of stuffed in suitcases, badly bruised, chopped bodies of women on expressways have become a common place. Most of these cases have a pattern to it which is unmissable. People are jumping into the fray offering a panoply of analyses, worse so, psycho-analysts are even employed to create an alibi for the accused. Brazening these organized attacks, a section of a specific community is eulogizing the accused Abdul as a hero validating the existence of a structured covert coterie. 

Even as numerous FIRs are filed against these violent attacks which most often led to the loss of life of the victim, there has been an adamant refusal to acknowledge the culpability, if the offender belongs to a particular community. In 2009, Kerala court has appealed to the government to frame rules to stop forced conversions under the garb of inter-faith love marriages³, a fatalistic phenomenon.  The first conviction on the Love jihad³ vouches for the wariness of society towards the proliferation of this menace.

Still, secular liberalists continue to deny its existence and apportion the blame on people who call out the bluff of these violent attacks on non-Muslim women. Indeed, the purveyors of this distorted discourse blame the entire society if the culprit is a Hindu but perpetrate a victimhood narrative if the accused is a Muslim.

These attacks have two aspects to them. First, is the reluctance to objectively dissect these cases which bolstered their tenacious recurrence, and the second aspect is the egotistical naivete of the victim community who refuse to discern the motives, larger agenda, and the driving force behind these persistent attacks against non-Muslim communities.

Despite the mounting rise of these incidents, the community, majorly the Hindus at large are disinterested in comprehending the standard operating protocol or a standard template followed in these incidents. Hallucinating in an alternate world of every religion/ ideology is the same and enamored by a Western style of living that has effectively deracinated the community from its roots, they continue to pay a heavy price.

Suffused by the ethos of the western, illiberal education system that systematically extricated generations of Hindu Indians from their culture and values even the connotations of ‘kafir’ or ‘infidel’ have failed to alert them of impending othering. Tricked and conditioned to divorce themselves from their dharma and the civilizational mores, secular Hindu parents having outsourced parenting are now inadvertently throwing their children to wolves. Under the garb of senseless inconsequential modernity, the Hindu community is falling prey to the noxious grooming jihad.

For centuries Hindus have been at the receiving end of religious fanaticism. Lamentably, they refuse to revisit history and learn from the mistakes of the past. Hardwired to blindly believe the modern education system that treats indigenous civilizations with contempt, the educated but civilisationally illiterate majority of India is blissfully undermining the threat of these attacks at their own peril.

In addition to the government’s insouciance, the snail-paced judiciary has been a huge letdown to the society that is anticipating justice. Instead of futile anticipation, it is time to wake up from a deep hypnotic slumber. It is time to get back to our roots, our dharma, and get acquainted with Shatrubodh. Above all, it is time to seek inspiration from stories of tremendous courage and educate children on the heroic tales of our ancestors who fiercely defended the country, civilisation and themselves.

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G20 Presidency is India’s Moment to Shine

India’s moment in terms of global diplomacy has arrived with Prime Minister Modi receiving the mantle of G20 Presidentship from the current host Indonesia. G 20 is truly unique in its composition. Comprising developed and developing countries, the group includes 19 nations representing 85% of the global GDP, and 66% of the World population. The bloc came into existence as a forum for meetings of central bank governors and finance ministers to discuss international economic and financial issues in the aftermath of the 1999 Asian Financial Crisis.

The forum graduated to a leaders’ summit in 2008 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis when developing countries like India and China bailed out the advanced economies from bankruptcy. This underscored the need for a collective approach between the developed and developing countries to reflect on the global economy and finances. Ever since leaders of the G20 which also include the EU met initially biannually and later annually to prevent any future financial crisis. But soon G20 expanded in scope to address other developmental challenges and global issues. The agenda now includes aspects related to food security, energy security & transition, climate change, migration & mobility, infrastructure, financing terrorism, health and sustainable developmental goals.

With every new crisis, the agenda of G20 expanded, with the forum now representing a “whole of government approach” ¹. Beyond government, G20 facilitates cross-sectional interactions between different sectors like- Business, civil society, think tanks, independent bodies and private sector through engagement groups. G20 has 10 engagement groups (Business 20, Civil 20, Labour 20, Parliament 20, Science 20, Supreme Audit Institutions 20, Urban 20, Women 20, Youth 20 and Think 20) where delegations from member states hold summits led by organizations of the host country. Thus, the annual affair for the host is bound to be busy, crowded and offers scope for making a meaningful difference.

The G20 has a rotating presidency with no permanent secretariat. The continuance of the G20 agenda is ensured with the troika of the past, present and future leaderships of G20 assisting the host. India has assumed the G20 Presidency for the first time and coincidentally the troika- Indonesia, India, and Brazil are all developing economies. So, India has the responsibility of voicing the concerns of emerging economies and the global south. India has pitched for a new engagement group Startup 20 in line with its call to adopt open source and inter-operable platforms like UPI, Cowin to promote digitization².

G20 Summit gives immense scope for the host country to play a great role in addressing global issues. During the Covid 19 pandemic, G20 hosts Saudi Arabia and Italy pursued Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) and played a crucial role in tackling the challenges of the Pandemic respectively. Similarly, Indonesia, which hosted the recently concluded G20 summit themed on “Recover Together, Recover Stronger” at Bali emphasised the need for international collaboration and was instrumental in the implementation of One Health for better global health security.

G20 leadership offers unique opportunities and challenges. India is going to host the 18^th edition of the summit when the world is going through an unprecedented multi-dimensional crisis. Besides the economic downturn, slow economic recovery, climate change poverty, and hindered sustainable development goals the world is going through geopolitically turbulent times. The urgent convening of the NATO and G7 leaders meeting along the sidelines of G20 summit over a sudden explosion along the Poland border mirrored the precarious situation that threatened to perturb World peace and prosperity.

Nations struggling to cope with disruptions caused by the Pandemic are further imperiled by the Ukraine conflict that has hit the recovery process. The World and especially the global south is taking a massive blow. Plagued by energy and food security, countries are facing challenging times to keep their economies stay afloat.

The chronic mistrust between the West and Russia decimated all hopes of consensus, collaboration and coordination. The G20 is now a largely fractured forum. The just concluded edition of G20 finance, foreign and environmental ministers failed to arrive at a Joint Communique. This approach is in contravention to the founding objective of G20 that strived for a coordinated policy response to tackle the economic crises primarily. Coordination has been the driving factor of G20 that worked so well in aftermath of 2008 financial crisis. But over the years, this has been missing. The Ukraine conflict has come as the final nail in the coffin.

The Ukraine crisis cast a shadow on the G20 summit making even the task of finding the right words to reflect the collective sentiments of nations incredibly difficult. Hitting the ground running, even before taking over the leadership, Prime Minister Modi played a major role in contributing to the Bali Declaration central to the summit. Instead of succumbing to the strong positions that virulently attacked Russia, Modi lent his phrase of “this is not an era of war” that resoundingly found acceptance with all the nations. “Today’s era must not be of war” in Bali Declaration surmised the geopolitical situation.

Even a pretense of cooperation and coordination completely vanished due to embroiling Ukraine conflict. Fortunately, India enjoys a relationship of trust with all G20 members with exception of China. This gives India a rare chance to shape the global order. At the Bali Summit, Modi met all the G20 leaders and exchanged notes with them. Amid gloom and despair, Modi promised, “an inclusive, ambitious, decisive and action-oriented” presidency while accepting the ceremonial gavel from Indonesian President Joko Widodo.

Committed to serving as an anchor for the geopolitical and global economic challenges, Modi unveiled India’s theme for G20 Presidency, “Vasudaiva kutumbakam” or One Earth One Family One Future which underlined the message of equitable growth and shared future for all. Projecting India’s success in mass vaccination with indigenous vaccines, as a lead digital player and a pioneer in energy transition with 40% of installed energy capacity from renewable sources, Modi has positioned India as an emerging player. India is the only G20 country on track to reach the Paris agreement targets before 2030.

India’s achievements and current policy vision have ticked all the boxes that are at the heart of G20’s agenda- Clean energy, Challenges of Covid pandemic, Digital transformation and climate change. In September India announced an ambitious agenda for G20- “Whilst our G20 priorities are in the process of being firmed up, ongoing conversations inter alia revolve around inclusive, equitable and sustainable growth; LiFE (Lifestyle For Environment); women’s empowerment; digital public infrastructure and tech-enabled development in areas ranging from health, agriculture and education to commerce, skill-mapping, culture and tourism; climate financing’ circular economy; global security; energy security; green hydrogen; disaster risk reduction and resilience; developmental cooperation; fight against economic crime; and multilateral reforms³.

India has displayed tremendous leadership during the tumultuous covid times. Besides feeding the 1.3 billion people, India supplied food grains to various countries. Underscoring the need for global consensus in addressing food and energy security, Modi cautioned, “today’s fertiliser shortage is tomorrow’s food crisis, for which the world will not have a solution” and added, “India’s energy security is also important for global growth, as it is the world’s fastest growing economy. We must not promote any restrictions on the supply of energy and stability in the energy market should be ensured”⁴. Alongside Modi pushed for credible reforms in the UN and urgent revamp of the UNSC.

With India at the forefront of digital-based economic transformation, Modi stated, “the proper use of digital technologies can become a force multiplier in the decades-long global fight against poverty…. But the benefits will be realized only when digital access is truly inclusive and when the use of digital technology is really widespread… it is the responsibility of us, G20 leaders, that the benefits of digital transformation should not be confined to a small part of the human race”⁵.

India has deployed technology to reduce inequalities. The world can definitely benefit from the slow and swift progress India has made in various domains. With its experience, India can definitely contribute to tackling global challenges. By highlighting India’s capabilities, Modi has showcased it as the bright spot of the future. With democracy and demographic dividend in its favour, India can use these twin aspects to leverage its position in the world. As the fastest-growing developing economy, a large country like India can potentially fuel the global growth engine.

Though G20 is not a forum for geopolitics by advocating diplomacy and dialogue, India is goading nations for negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict that triggered an economic recession, spiralling inflation and falling standards of living. Pushing positively for economic growth, India is displaying rare confidence and capability. As voiced by Modi, “the world is looking at the G20 with hope”⁶. Ostensibly, G20 presidency is India’s moment to shine!! With delicate diplomatic balancing and dynamic political acumen, India must showcase its ability to steer the global economic leadership.

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India-Taiwan Relations: An Idea Whose Time has Come

Geopolitics and geoeconomics go hand in hand. Often, geopolitics steers geoeconomics paving way for new cooperations. The slow and steady expansion of India and Taiwan collaborations is a case in the point. Last week, a Taiwanese business delegation led by, Deputy Minister, Chern-Chyi Chen, Ministry of Economics, attended the 6th edition of the India-Taiwan Industrial Collaboration Summit, in Delhi. This first in-person annual meeting, since Covid was organized by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and Taiwan’s China National Federation of Industries (CNFI) on November 3. The meeting was followed by the first India-Taiwan CEOs Roundtable.

The delegation which included representatives from Foxconn and Pegatron culminated in three MoUs between the Indian and Taiwanese businesses for cooperation in electronics manufacturing and green technologies. Notably, weeks ahead of this meeting, Pegatron, Apple’s Taiwanese subsidiary manufacturer inaugurated its first unit and started assembling of iPhone 14 at Chengalpet, Chennai. Unlike Wistron and Foxconn which have already started production under PLI (Production Linked Incentives) availing the five-year incentives, Pegatron, a late entrant, plans to invest Rs. 1100 Crores in India under PLI in the FY 2023-24.

The Government of India announced the PLI scheme for smartphones in 2020 to wean manufacturing giants from China and Vietnam. Thanks to the PLI scheme, India’s monthly mobile exports touched the $1 billion mark in September led by Apple and Samsung. Boosting electronic manufacturing is among the core objectives of India’s Atmanirbhar or self-reliance agenda. Taiwan is a dominant player in the global semiconductor market with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) making up 54% of its foundry market share1.

Deemed the “new oil” of the 21st-century semiconductors are indispensable for modern electronic goods, weapons, space, the defence sector and the automobile industry with vital security implications. Given their increased demand, semiconductors would become a geopolitical tool. Taiwan supplies 75% of semiconductor chips to India2 (factors the demands of the domestic and global manufacturers). Geopolitical tensions and supply chain volatilities during the pandemic have raised doubts over the accessibility of semiconductor chips. With Indian telecom industries foraying into 5G, the demand for semiconductors is set to increase. Experts term semiconductors as “pillars of the modern digital economy”.

Being a nonstarter in this industry, cognizant of the need for building a reliable semiconductor ecosystem in March 2022, India has set up India Semiconductor Mission (ISM) with four embedded schemes-semiconductor fabs; display fabs; Assembly, testing, marking and packaging (ATMP) facilities; design linked incentive (DLC) schemes. The government has also approved the modernisation of the semiconductor laboratory at Mohali. With a total outlay of Rs 76,000 Crores, India envisions emerging as a global hub of electronics manufacturing and design3. Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductors has sparked India’s interest.

“One China Policy” with sovereignty over Taiwan, Hongkong, and Macao as its redline, not keen on ruffling feathers with Beijing, New Delhi refrained from playing the “Taiwan Card”. But the rapid geopolitical events- hot border, US-China trade and technology sanctions, and the military showdown of China over Nancy Pelosi’s visit have invariably influenced both India and Taiwan to recalibrate their positions.

Moreover, the emergence of reunification as the foremost agenda of Xi at the 20th National Congress, asking the nation to gird up loins, “we should adhere to the one-China Principle and the 1992 consensus and implement our Party’s overall policy of resolving the Taiwan question in the new era. We should take resolute steps to oppose “Taiwan independence” and promote reunification, maintain the initiative and the ability to steer in cross-Strait relations, and unswervingly advance the cause of national unification”4.

Troubled by the labour shortage, to cater to the huge Chinese market, Taiwan has set up manufacturing units in China. However, in light of the latest escalations, the US’s adversarial stand towards China, Taiwan’s business interests dependent on China, are planning to relocate to other countries. Further, Chinese companies poaching Taiwanese talent along with the technological know-how of chip manufacturing has compounded Taiwan’s concerns.

India’s huge markets, surging demand, government’s accelerated push for self-sufficiency in semiconductors have opened a window of investment opportunities for Taiwan in India. President Biden has recently invoked the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) targeting China’s ambitious advanced computing and semiconductor which is still reliant on American technology5. To become self-reliant, China has made semiconductor manufacturing a national mission. Resolutely pursuing Chip manufacturing, China invested $300 billion and is now a few steps away from America. FDPR effectively bans the use of American technology by foreign countries in designing and manufacturing semiconductors.

Troubled by the frequent covid lockdown and the export control of technologies, tech giants like Apple and Google in China are expediting their relocation and diversification plans. India is sensing an opportunity for building a vibrant tech ecosystem. The official finalisation of the first semiconductor fab unit, a display fab unit and a semiconductor testing and assembling unit worth $20 billion at Dholera, Gujarat, the joint venture between Vedanta and Foxconn has thus been a welcome step in India’s pursuit towards self-reliance in semiconductors. The joint venture plans to set up the semiconductor manufacturing plant in the next two years.

Semiconductors are strategically important and critical components of emerging technologies. The criticality of semiconductors can be assessed from the fact that the Quad has constituted a working group on Critical and Emerging technologies. Dominance in this field is crucial for securing national interests and having equal footing with developed countries. Having had a past experience of denial of technology by America, the latest US tech sanctions on China have spurred the government to prioritise semiconductors.

In the aftermath of US tech export control, Gujarat has announced a sector-focused semiconductor policy (2022-27). With Dholera, India has just made a beginning. It needs a trusted entity that can cater to India’s growing technological needs. Besides being democratic entities, the complementarities between India and Taiwan can bode well for an energised friendship and cooperation. Both India and Taiwan share a common concern about China’s aggressive posturing and militarization. While Taiwan is facing a looming annexation threat, India is bothered by China’s power projection, a live confrontation at the LAC, undeterred assistance to Pakistan and a growing presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Though India and Taiwan didn’t formally establish diplomatic ties, India started India-Taiwan Association in 1995 in Taipei to promote non-governmental relations. Similarly, its counterpart Taipei Economic Cultural Centre in New Delhi was established the same year. Both countries signed Bilateral Investment Agreement (BIA) in 2002 which came into force in 2005. In December 2018, both sides signed an updated BIA. Taiwan is India’s 16th largest trade partner with bilateral trade volumes reaching $5.7 billion in 2020, a growth of 185% from 2006. Taiwan’s investment in India stands at $1.5 billion6.

India’s engagement with Taiwan is constrained by its bilateral ties with Beijing. After China’s stealth incursion and Galwan incident as a message to Beijing, two Indian MPs virtually attended the swearing-in ceremony of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen in May 2020. In a major policy change, in July 2020 New Delhi appointed an envoy to Taiwan. China’s obdurate stance on the restoration of status quo ante has inadvertently catalysed India-Taiwan engagement.

Shedding conservatism, India issued a guarded statement on China’s response to Pelosi’s visit appealing “avoidance of unilateral actions to change the status quo” and refused to mention “one China policy”. This consciously set a pragmatic narrative. Though India’s statement wasn’t forthcoming, it reflected a sense of solidarity. While economic cooperation can be the major binding factor, shared values of democracy, freedom and rule of law can keep the entities together.

For long, India has adopted a cautious towards Taiwan aware of China’s reddest line. Recalibrating its policy towards Taiwan, New Delhi can begin extending support for Taiwan’s membership at various platforms, revamp the India-Taiwan Parliamentary Forum established in 2016 and restore political interactions. As a part of the “New Southbound Policy” (NSP) Taiwan focuses to increase cooperation with India. Similarly, India can rejuvenate its engagement with Taiwan under the “Act East Policy”.

Last month Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation (TAEF) conducted the 6th edition of the Yushan Forum to foster sustainable cooperation with like-minded countries7. This was followed by the inaugural Taiwan-India Dialogue which emphasised harnessing the complementary strengths of both sides8.

Being the fifth largest economy with huge potential for growth and business opportunities, India is now the target country under Taiwan’s NSP. The recently concluded Taiwan delegation visit has added fresh momentum to the engagement. Besides palpable public enthusiasm in both entities for expanded cooperation evidenced by Netizens’ rousing support for the “Milk Tea Alliance”, they must actively pursue the Free Trade Agreement. FTA can attract Taiwanese companies to set up production bases in India.

Taiwan’s position as a dominant manufacturer and supplier of semiconductors makes it a valuable partner for India’s pursuit of self-reliance. India must seize this opportunity with both hands as reiterated by Taiwanese speakers at the Yushan Forum, as “an idea whose time has come”9.

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Yuganta: The Advent of Kali Yuga

In response to a petition in 2007, defending the Setusamudram project, the UPA government told the Supreme Court, “the contents of the Valmiki Ramayana, the Ramcharitamanas by Tulsidas and other mythological texts, which admittedly form an important part of ancient Indian literature… cannot be said to be a historical record to incontrovertibly prove the existence of the characters, or the occurrence of the events, depicted therein”. A vast section of the so-called opinion-makers and a cabal of historians perpetrated a narrative stating, “History requires concrete evidence in the form of coins, inscriptions, etc to prove the existence of a character. Even if we take into account the places mentioned in the Ramayana like Chitrakoot, and Ayodhya which still exist, the fact is that Ramayana is not a historical text. So, from that perspective, there is no historical evidence of Ram. Having said that, we still cannot negate Ram’s presence easily, since he has been part of our collective consciousness for a long time”².

The dubious narrative notwithstanding the traditional categorization of the Ramayana and Mahabharata as ‘Itihasas’ meaning “thus verily happened” is a compilation of the history that has truly happened, reflects the pervasive intellectual illiteracy of court historians and leftist academicians. These texts of Sanatana Dharma have recorded events of history in meticulous detail. But still, these are verily and summarily labeled as “Mythological texts” to deny the Sanatanis their heritage.

Time and again the veracity of Bhagwan Rama is questioned and the contentious debates reached a crescendo during the Ayodhya Rama Janmabhoomi verdict case. Written in epic format, as slokas, for easy memorization and learning, for millennia people preserved this history. Indeed, much to the consternation of the leftist secularists who continued to dominate the academic landscape with their distorted representation of ‘Itihasas’ as ‘Mythology’, an organic movement for reclaiming Sanatani history started gaining new momentum. Contesting the ‘myth of mythology’, Indologists have embarked on Chronology studies of ‘Itihasas’ to legitimately debunk the pernicious campaign against Sanatani history.

These chronology studies have generated tremendous interest among the younger generation toward our Itihasas. Adopting a multi-disciplinary approach, a new tribe of Indologists is conclusively and convincingly establishing the events of history recorded in the ‘Itihasas’. Adding a fresh perspective, young debutant author and researcher, Jeevan Rao has attempted to solve a baffling puzzle through his book- “Yuganta: The Advent of Kaliyuga”.

Working out directly to solve the dilemma of a few millenniums, the book outlines the research objective of finding the precise year of the advent of Kaliyuga. The cosmic timeline is divided into four yugas (caturyugas)- Krita, Treta, Dwapara and Kali Yuga respectively. The other units are- Mahayuga, Manvantara and Kalpa. One Kalpa, a day of Brahma is equal to 14 Manvantaras. One Manvantara is 71 Mahayugas. The caturyugas are collectively called Mahayugas. One Kalpa lasts for 4.32 billion years. Yuga is thus, the smallest unit of the cosmic timeline.

Popular belief has been that arrival of Kaliyuga and the Mahabharata story are closely linked. Various Chronology researchers of Mahabharata made multiple claims regarding the first day of the Kali Yuga attributing it to different incidents. Steering clear from the maze of claims and counterclaims, the author expertly digs deep into Mahabharata to find the answers to Kali Yuga beginning.

To make the book very interesting, the author attempts to explain in detail every new verbatim, not part of the regular discourse starting from the yuga definitions. He then slowly introduces the four different categories of Yuga definitions: theoretical, philosophical, practical and Chronological. With a focus on the Chronology aspect, the author subsequently delves into the Puranic accounts of the Yuga definition and more specifically about Kali Yuga. But Puranas being a collation of all aspects of human life that existed at the time of their compilation and updating had some pointers insufficient to determine the Chronology marker of Kali Yuga.

Whereas the epic narration of Mahabharata that recorded the events in explicit detail offered clear hints about Yuganta. Diligently looking for references to yuganta in the Mahabharata, the author classified over 100 references from the text into three categories- descriptive, comparative and informative categories to precisely arrive at the right timeline for Yuganta. Among the 70 references spread across the entire text, the majority of them concentrated in the yuddha parvas ( Udyoga, Bhishma, Drona, Karna, Shalya, Sauptika, Stri) turned out to be vital for locating the commencement of Kali Yuga.

Though arduous for general reading, the author enlisted all 70 references with their English translations in the fourth chapter of the book. This stepwise analysis essentially helped in arriving at a timeframe for Yuganta. After substantially establishing the Chronology evidence, the author narrowed down the precise time through astronomical evidence. Running the observations through “the logic of stepwise regression” and corroborating with the shabda pramana or the oral evidence, the author arrived at a definitive answer for the astronomical evidence as well.

Decimating the apriori assumptions by interpreters and researchers, and applying sensitivity analysis the author meticulously arrives at the timeline of the advent of Kaliyuga. As a final litmus test, the author validated his claims through Karl Poppers Truthlikeness Score (TS). The book is refreshingly new and unique. Instead of attempting to fit the facts to prove a hypothesis, the author painstakingly filters the references from a panoply of sources.

Relying entirely on the primary sources to establish his claims, the author made a breakthrough in nailing the commencement of Kali Yuga. The appendix of the book loaded with rare snippets of information from illustrious Sanatana texts is a must-read. Any perceptive reader can decipher how truth becomes a casualty due to a lazy interpretation of Sanatana Texts/ primary sources.

Refraining from divulging the time of commencement of Kali Yuga that forms the kernel of the book and anticipating the reader to explore, I would like to commend the author for his research acumen and methodical approach.  This book is indeed a bold attempt for a debutant author of 23 years who began his research when he was 20.

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Delhi Declaration is a Testimony to India’s Global Counter-Terrorism Efforts

India recently hosted the UNSC Counter-Terrorism Committee meeting. The two-day meeting which concluded in New Delhi on October 29^th is the first meeting of the UNSC, in any format held in India. Being the worst victim of cross-border terrorism, India has always been at the forefront of leading the counter-terrorism movement.

UNSC resolution 1373 unanimously approved the establishment of the UN Counter-Terrorism Committee (UNCTC) on 28^th September 2001 in the wake of 9/11. India chaired the committee for the first time in 2011 and over a decade later, became the Chair of CTC in January 2022. Debunked as a non-issue, terrorism as a threat to national and global security hit the West only after 9/11 attacks. India chose Mumbai as the venue for the inauguration of the meeting to draw the World’s attention to the dastardly attacks that killed 166 people which included 26 foreigners belonging to 23 countries.

The global fight against terrorism assumed its present proportions after Al-Qaeda’s attack on the New York twin towers. But the fight lost its significance after the US tactically inked an agreement with the terrorist group Taliban and lent it political legitimacy. Indeed, the two-decade-long protracted war ended in a dubious surrender and return of a terrorist regime to the region which has been precariously bearing the brunt of the terrorism.

The UNCTC meeting has come at a time when China for the fifth time in four months stalled the proscription of five Pakistani terrorists who engineered terror attacks against India. The well-intentioned sanctions regime against terrorists is being successively rendered ineffective by UNSC member states for political reasons. The glaring lack of consensus has plagued the global fight against terrorism, a scourge on mankind.

In addition, nations thus far have failed to arrive at the definition of terrorism. By labeling them as ‘good vs bad terrorist’ or ‘my vs your terrorist’ ¹and by providing a smokescreen to them under the charade of human rights, nations have seriously impeded the international fight against terrorism.  

The human rights angle has viciously diluted global combat against terrorism. By drawing parallels to the racial/ethnically motivated extremism as a form of terrorism (REMVE), the European countries and the US, where this kind of violent acts are a core domestic issue, have undermined the serious fight against terrorism¹. Unlike terrorism, the violence pertaining to racial extremism is restricted to certain pockets and not global. Even the 2022 Global Terrorism Index points out that politically motivated attacks are on the rise while terrorism declined².

In their penchant to take on the rising right-wing nationalism and to be politically right, motivated attacks are now simply white-washed as “provocation acts”. Prioritizing domestic issues, barring a few attempts to neutralize high-profile terrorist leaders, the US is narrowing its focus on terrorism even as UN reports warn of burgeoning terror attacks in Asia and Africa.

Subsequently, driven by domestic motivations, Member States began to include “violent nationalism”, “right-wing extremism”, “racially and ethnically motivated violent extremism”, and “xenophobia” under the ambit of the global counter-terrorism strategy (GCTS)³. Obviating the cardinal belief of terrorism has no religion, the 28^th para of the 7^th review of GCTS passed by UNGA stated, “recognises with deep concern the overall rise in instances of discrimination, intolerance and violence, regardless of the actors, directed against members of religious and other communities in various parts of the world, including cases motivated by Islamophobia, antisemitism, Christianophobia and prejudice against persons of any other religion or belief”⁴.

With the inclusion of “Abrahamophobia” in the GCTS, the UN has effectively diluted the global fight against terrorism and justified terror. This implicit bigotry in terms of characterizing the motivation for terror has stifled the collective combat against terrorism.

India which was elected to the UNSC for the two-year term for the eighth time in 2021 focussed on three issues- terrorism, maritime security in the Indo-Pacific, and Protection of the UN Peace Keeping Forces. During the month-long presidency in August 2021, India held two open debates including one on terrorism titled, “Threats to International Peace and security caused by terrorist acts” where India proposed an 8-point plan action plan or cardinal rules for countering terrorism in the wake of the return of the Afghan Taliban to power.

Subsequently, to enhance the role of CTC and strengthen the multilateral responses to combat terror, India voted in favour of the renewal of the mandate of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) till the end of 2025 in December 2021. CTED assists CTC by conducting visits on CTC’s behalf to assess Member States’ shortfalls and counterterrorism efforts and cater to technical assistance needs.

India has always consistently supported global counter-terrorism efforts. Taking over as the Chair of Counter-terrorism this year, India’s permanent representative to the UN, Tirumurti flagged the new challenges posed by the misuse of emerging technologies for terrorism and urged nations to strengthen the global counterterrorism strategy (GCTS). 2022 Global Terrorism Index also noted, “As technology has advanced so has its use by terrorist groups. This includes missiles and drones, which extend the reach of their attacks and reduce their casualties. Affordable smartphones, social media and encryption are other technologies that also extend their networks, making the spread of propaganda and recruitment easier”.

Certainly, the lack of political consensus prevailed as a major drag, with Member States unable to assess what constitutes radicalization. Determined to fight the menace, India painstakingly held months of negotiations and put in place the Delhi declaration. The declaration is essentially a summary of India’s proposal and framework to address terrorism. Unequivocally, reiterating “zero tolerance” towards “all forms and manifestations of terrorism”, India managed to extract a non-binding commitment from Member States to end terrorism.

At the Mumbai leg of the UNSC-CTC meeting, not naming Pakistan, India played a clip of Sajid Mir who engineered the 26/11 blasts vindicating its position. Earlier, China used a technical hold to stall his designation under the UNSC 1267 committee. With the Afghan Taliban in power and Pakistan exiting the FATF grey list, India’s highlighted the precarious state of affairs in the subcontinent.

Turning commitment into action, India brought out some guidelines to extricate terrorism which is rapidly extending its reach and capabilities through the use of new technologies. Voicing concerns at the special session, EAM Jaishankar said, “Internet and social media have turned into potent instruments in the toolkit of terrorist and militant groups for spreading propaganda, radicalisation and conspiracy theories aimed at destablising societies”⁵.

Notwithstanding the setbacks and lack of support, India rolled out a framework and essential guidelines to protect civilised societies from the menace of terrorism. The meticulously worked out “Delhi Declaration on countering the use of new and emerging technologies for terrorist purposes” reaffirms, “terrorism in all forms and manifestations constitutes one of the most serious threats to international peace and security” and adds, “that any acts of terrorism are criminal and unjustifiable, regardless of their motivation, whenever, wherever, and by whomsoever committed”.

The Declaration exhorted Member States that ignored the perils of terrorism pandering to domestic constituencies, “to ensure zero tolerance towards terrorism, consistent with their obligations under international laws, including human rights law, international humanitarian law and international refugees law”. It noted with concern the use of the internet, social media platforms, other communication and communication technologies, financial technologies, and crowdfunding platforms, to recruit, indoctrinate and radicalise people.

Cognizant of the close links between drug and arms trafficking the declaration acknowledged the misuse of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), drones, and quadcopters that increased the accessibility of both drugs and weapons at a very low cost. Fostering innovation, the declaration urges States to prevent their use by non-state actors for terror acts and develop counter-terrorist narratives and innovative technologies while respecting international law.

Recognising the work of FATF’s work on virtual assets and virtual assets service providers (VASP), in monitoring payment services, and discharge of anti-money laundering measures, the declaration called upon the watchdog to improve the global implementation of counter-terrorist financial measures. Concomitantly, the declaration even called on States to enhance the traceability and transparency of financial transactions and encouraged financial intelligence services to develop effective partnerships with financial service providers, social media agencies, to trace the sources and methods of financing terrorism⁶.

Underscoring the importance of curbing terror financing and the role played by watchdog FATF, Indian intelligence agencies briefed that in 2018, when Pakistan was grey listed, there was a 75% decline in terrorist bases on Pakistani territory. India experienced “a window of relative peace”. With the removal of Pakistan from the grey list after four years, terror bases already increased by 50%⁷ and India is expecting “scalable attacks on hard targets”.

The declaration urged the Member States to fulfill the obligations enshrined under international counterterrorism conventions and took a dig at countries that have made “terrorism a state-sponsored enterprise”. It appealed to states to identify safe havens and deny terrorist access to them and bring to “justice anyone who supports, facilitates, participates or attempts to participate in financing, planning, preparation or commission of terror acts including in providing safe havens in accordance with domestic and international laws”.

To aid capacity building, India contributed half a million USD to UN Trust Fund for Counter-Terrorism. The UN has unanimously adopted the landmark Delhi Declaration in countering terrorism. Open societies in particular are bearing the brunt of terrorism with non-state actors using the ethos of open societies to attack their freedom, tolerance and progress. A clickbait liquidation of top terrorist leaders can never decimate terrorism which thrives on a noxious ideology.

Terrorist attacks on Iran’s Shiraz shrine, Somalia car bombing during the summit and a failed suicidal bombing in Coimbatore, India, a fortnight ago suggest that concerted international coordination is a must to dismantle safe havens of terror, training grounds, and financial, ideological as well as political support structures.

Countering terrorism is a major foreign policy decision of India. Slated for a month-long UNSC presidency in December, India is all set to rally for collective international support to combat terror.

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Rishi Sunak is the Man for the Season. Premature to Rejoice About his Elevation

The anointment of Rishi Sunak as the Prime Minister of the UK has generated a palpable euphoria in India. Though this is not the first time that people of Indian Origin or Indian roots have occupied the highest constitutional positions in foreign lands, fierce political mudslinging over the status of minorities in India once again dominated the social media and mainstream media. Sunak’s credentials as a practicing Hindu and his unapologetic display of symbolism have exacerbated these vengeful debates that attempted to portray India as a majoritarian.

Unfortunately, clouded by woeful amnesia even as critics continue to launch political tirades the decade-long leadership of Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister, Dr. Abdul Kalam as the President, and Sonia Gandhi as the head of the National Advisory Council of India are thankfully etched in chronicles of history to hold a mirror to perpetrators of bigoted narratives. The elevation of Rishi Sunak with his ancestral origins in one of the vassal states of the former Colonial Empire to lead it is certainly a momentous occasion. This remarkable feat coinciding with the Hindu festival of lights on the 75^th year of India’s independence has made it doubly significant.

Indeed, the nomination of Indian-origin Sunak as the leader of the Conservative Party months after India pushed the UK to become the fifth-largest economy is a real heart burn for some hardcore traditionalists. Against this opposition, the elevation of Sunak is certainly a huge leap forward in terms of breaking the shackles of class and race in modern society.

While Sunak’s rise to power was celebrated as the virtuosity of liberal democracy, he had to survive the skulduggery and backstabbing of the Tory leaders. He narrowly lost to Elizabeth Truss in the fifth round of the earlier party elections for the coveted post. Despite the critiques churning out tomes on “Fishy Rishi” and “Rishi Rich,” his elevation is certainly a recognition of talent in a race and class-obsessed society. The implosion of Trussonomics underscored the maladies afflicting the recession hit the UK economy. Bereft of alternatives, the business ecosystem rallied for Sunak.

Banking on his talent, competence, and extensive experience in markets, conservative MPs reposed faith in him. Hopeful of the economy getting back on track, the markets responded positively to his appointment. The markets have calmed down after the disastrous non-funded tax cuts of Truss. There are now some signs of economic stability.

Sunak’s commitment to pulling the economy out of inflation firmly bolstered his candidature as the best candidate for the job. His fiscal relief packages as Chancellor of the Exchequer during Covid despite their flaws were well received. Especially the “Eat Out to Help Out” was an instant hit and the hospitality sector profusely thanked him for rescuing them during the Covid. Fiscal conservatism, the defining rubric of his approach is now deemed a dire necessity to rescue the recession-hit economy.

Perceived as a non-ideologue with a laudable stint as a Chancellor, the conservative MPs picked him for the top job. Consequently, his origins became “incidental” and the leftist penchant to pick on him as “richer than the royals” had to bite the dust.

With five prime ministers in six years and a third prime minister in the past three months, the UK is reeling under political instability. The fractious infightings of the Conservative Party with a record high majority since 1987 were out in the open. Aside from political rifts, Sunak must brace for major challenges- surging inflation, protests, health crisis, and war in Europe. The task at hand for Rishi Sunak is clearly cut out.

Enlisting his priorities, in his inaugural address, the new Prime Minister said, “I will place economic stability and confidence at the heart of this government’s agenda”.  Promising to earn the trust not with his words but with actions, in a veiled dig at hardcore Boris Johnson’s loyalists, he said, “I know he (Boris) would agree that the mandate my party earned in 2019 is not the sole property of any one individual, it is a mandate that belongs to and unites all of us”¹.

At the helm of affairs managing a weakened economy amid geopolitically turbulent times, the enormity of challenges before Sunak is daunting. The burden of expectations is sky-high. With people’s eroding confidence in Conservative Party, Sunak must plod a difficult terrain of being compassionate towards the poor and not make tough decisions that can affect their living standards.  Labour party is quickly gaining ground. To strike a balance, Sunak is betting on the continuity of the policy of his predecessor.

Brexit has weakened the UK- economically and strategically. It is no longer part of Europe. Dependent on the US for support at the multilateral forums, the UK has deeply entrenched itself in the Western camp. Indeed, while the UK does not suffer from any direct threats from Russia, it has strongly backed Ukraine to be part of Western security systems. In fact, the UK is now the second largest military donor of Ukraine after the US. In keeping with its commitment, immediately after his inauguration, Sunak d up Ukrainian President Zelensky and pledged support.

After the US reluctance for an FTA, to bolster the economic fortunes, Boris Johnson placed his bets on India-UK FTA and pragmatically set Diwali deadline. The Party gate scandal crashed all his plans. Further, ‘Indian migrants overstay’ remark by Home Secretary Suella Braverman further dampened the prospects of an FTA. Stating that the open border migration policy with India is against the objectives of Brexit, Braverman kicked up a storm. Shortly after her controversial statements, Braverman resigned for committing a “technical infringement” which subsequently led to the fall of the Truss government.

Prospects of India-UK FTA brightened after Sunak formed the government. But by bringing back Braverman as the Home Secretary, Sunak who voted for Brexit, propped up anti-migrant stance. Migration has been a contentious issue and a major roadblock for India-UK economic cooperation since 2016.  PM Theresa May’s had to return empty-handed despite her charm offensive due to her restrictive migration policies.

For India, FTA makes real sense only if includes the movement of skilled workers to make up for the shortage of skills in the UK. Given, Braverman’s opposition to FTA with India over migration, the chances of FTA are now anybody’s guess. India welcomed Braverman’s induction born to a Goan father and a Tamilian mother into the Truss cabinet due to her Indian connection. She even attributed the Leicestershire attacks on Hindus to migration.

Similarly, Indians and people of Indian origin around the world rejoiced over the elevation of Rishi Sunak as the youngest Prime Minister of UK in the last 200 years for his Indian connections. This joy and celebration now seem to be premature and short-lived. While the chances of FTA are rather slim, India can certainly take forward the initiatives of defense and security cooperation.

Clearly beholden to the power brokers and influential conservative party leaders, Sunak will be forced to follow the party policies to the T. With so much hullabaloo about his Indian linkages he will be forced to prove that he is a more loyal Brit. Given the set of turbulent conditions, Sunak will be expected to uphold the interests of Britain more than ever and be tough towards India if need be.

Sunak is heading the country which needs a structural revamp- politically, socially, and economically. The UK is going through one of the weakest phases with even Scotland seeking either independence or greater autonomy. Any misstep or a tough decision can bolster Scottish Nationalist Party’s quest for independence.

Bequeathed a crown of thorns, Sunak was nominated by the Conservation Party to lead the country through the economic mess. By elevating Sunak, despite his race, Britain will symbolically use this card to flaunt its liberal values. Sunak is the man for this season with insurmountable tasks to accomplish.

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