China is at the threshold of ushering into an era of Xi Jinping’s “cult leadership”

A major political event is about to unfold over the weekend. Interestingly, while the outcomes are more or less known to everybody, the way it is unraveling is spurring a lot of interest. A prelude of rare protests in China is setting the ground for the 20^th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) scheduled for 16^th October, Sunday. While there wasn’t any smidgeon of doubt about President Xi Jinping’s coronation for the third term rare protests quickly snuffed out of life had set a new tone for the historic event.

Banners reading, “No Covid test, we want to eat. No restrictions, we want freedom. No lies, we want dignity. No Cultural Revolution, we want reform. No leaders, we want votes. By not being slaves, we can be citizens”, appeared on a bridge in Beijing’s Haidian district. Video footage with slogans calling on residents to “go on strike at school and work, remove the dictator and national traitor Xi Jinping”¹, indicated the mood of the people.

The disappointment and discontent is palpable as nearly 200 million people or nearly every province in the country is under some form of restriction as part of China’s zero-tolerance approach towards Covid. For people who awaited some relief ahead of the Congress, the “draconian lockdown” has furthered whittled their hopes. The world has continued to learn with the virus but CCP’s portrayal of “Zero Covid” in controlling illness and deaths as success has plunged the country into unending episodic lockdowns.

With the party making chest-thumping assertions of national strength and drawing mileage from these ideological statements based on Covid zero, it is unlikely that CCP is ever going to shun this policy despite an alarming rise in unemployment, food shortages, high inflation and a massive slump in real estate. Uncertain and unrelenting lockdowns of cities even in case of a single infection are forcing companies to relocate to other countries. Even a weakening economy and its concomitant ripple effect on other developing countries which largely import commodities from China have failed to bring about any change in CCP’s “Zero Covid” policy.

Prior to these protests, the Indian Media was agog with reports of a PLA uprising upstaging President Xi in the last week of September. While any serious Chinese Observer conversant with the power hierarchy in China would have seriously dismissed this frivolous rumor-mongering, the animated discussions that dominated the Indian media only hinted at the brewing animus towards Xi in India. The news as it turned out has been the handiwork of journalists belonging to the Falun Gong sect was an attempt at churning conspiracy theories.

Though the decisions are taken ahead of the National Congress of CCP which is held every five years, the meetings are important as they formally announce the leader of the PRC.  The pyramidal CCP structure has ninety million members of the party are represented by nearly 3000 National Party Congress members who in turn chose 370 members of the Central Committee. This Central Committee is an integral part of the Central Military Commission (CMC) currently headed by Xi Jinping and oversees the functioning of the armed forces.

The next tier in the hierarchy is the 25-member Politburo or the political bureau comprising provincial leaders, military leaders and central party officials. From among these the elite group of seven Polit Buro Standing Committee (PBSC) is drawn that makes the crucial decisions. The head of the Standing Committee is the party general secretary. China terms this system of choosing leaders a “People democracy” which is further strangulated by Xi who micromanages the selection of individuals.

At every congress, a certain portion of these members retires owing to age limits (68 years) and other opaque reasons. In China, the party is supreme over the country and the PLA owes its allegiance to the party and acts at the behest and command of the party.

For the past 25 years, a new general secretary is appointed at every Congress. After the death of the founding leader and Chairman of the CCP in 1976, to end the norm of leadership for life and concentration of power in a single individual Deng Xiaoping who succeeded Mao instituted a two-term limit on the role of the President laying the foundation for a “collective leadership”. He opened the scope for reforms and institutionalisation. Subsequently, the successors- Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao subscribed to this orderly transition of power wherein political consensus thrived and helped in grooming the future leadership. Indeed, Xi Jinping’s ascent to power has been facilitated by this “peaceful transfer of power”.

In this quest for power, Xi subverted this generational leadership system through a constitutional amendment in 2018, that abolished the term limits for President. Subsequently, with Xi holding all three posts- General Secretary of CCP, President of PRC and Chairman of CMC, the decision-making has become over-centralised and unitary. Amassing power, Xi began to consolidate power through domestic surveillance, repressive nationalism, and corruption purges.

The nascent concept of G2, wherein China’s pursuit of seeking parity with the US reached its pinnacle under Xi’s regime marked the high point of his leadership. Xi’s decade long regime witnessed the rise of China as an economic superpower and his global connectivity, economic and development initiatives substantially enhanced Beijing’s economic and diplomatic clout. China evolved as the global export market hub. Xi Jinping successfully promoted the “China brand” and helmed a “Sino-Centric” global order also termed the Peking Order².

But this suffered a major setback with the Wuhan virus pandemic which exposed the shortcomings of the global order that Xi wanted to promote globally and thrust on the World. While China displayed a penchant for a leadership role in global affairs its lack of responsibility and accountability which led to the global spread of the Wuhan virus symbolized its absence of empathy.

Further, the flipside of the much-touted BRI, Xi’s brainchild exposed the imperialistic ambitions of China. Wolf-warrior diplomacy, and supply chain disruptions, seeded Chinese skepticism. Pertinently, the trust deficit abraded the blossoming Sino-transatlantic relations with European countries considering China as a “strategic challenge/threat”. Though China is not deemed a rival on the scale of Russia. But independent Indo-Pacific policies of various European countries demonstrate a systemic change toward China.

The pandemic outbreak and growing dependency on China prompted developed countries to decouple from China. Notwithstanding the pandemic disruptions China’s ambitious expansionism- annexation bids of Taiwan, and territorial incursions into India have further eroded the World’s trust in China’s rise.

Over the years, China accumulated economic clout for being the global manufacturing powerhouse. The comity of nations that depended on Chinese supplies suffered due to inconsistencies during the pandemic. Consequently, the Chinese leadership is considered more of a “disruptor” as opposed to a “developer”.

In the face of these insecurities and institutional criticisms, giving a major fillip to the “national rejuvenation” objective, Xi banked on his successes in quelling dissent in Tibet, and Xinjiang, and bolstered their acceptance through his visits. Through the implementation of National Security Law in Hongkong, Xi demonstrated the efficacy of “One country two systems” and earned a mandate to intensify his campaign for the annexation of Taiwan.

Though there is also an optimistic approval of Xi’s global ambitions among the domestic constituents in terms of building an alternative global order and multilateral institutions/ organisations, Xi’s legacy is now a mix of hits and misses. Amid domestic concoction of disenchantment that continued to grow with the ruthless crackdown on private enterprises and favouring SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) under the garb of “common prosperity” has now peaked owing to the burgeoning health surveillance that is impeding their daily lives.

Brought into power to clean rampant corruption, and dissent that undermined party legitimacy and factionalism in 2012, Xi cleaned the system and ended factionalism. In the process, he expanded the permanent national supervisory commission and used it as a twin measure of a sustained anti-graft campaign to enforce discipline and purge his political rivals.  Indeed, the indictment of Fu Zhenghua in September on charges of bribe just weeks before the 20^th Congress is yet another sanctified act of Xi’s political purge. Popular as “swatting the flies” and “taking out the tigers” as of April 2022, the discipline inspectors dealt with nearly 4.4 million involving 4.7 million people³. The scale of the campaign is unprecedented.

Given Xi’s role in cracking down on the Tiananmen Square protests, the princeling was precisely chosen for the top job by the party in 2012 to rid of corruption. Besides, delivering the job, and tightening his grip over the party, Xi through mass education campaigns and ideological indoctrination has ensured that the party DNA is firmly ingrained in the cadres. By disciplining the cadres, and careful selection of loyalists for key leadership positions, Xi has essentially made the party amenable to him. Wiping out all traces of opposition, Xi has steadily exerted its control over the party.

While Xi has managed his party successfully, the geopolitical tangles, economic slowdown, the brewing Sino-US animosities and Biden’s latest sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry are going to be a major challenge. China’s “no limits friendship” with Russia has added a new dimension to the West’s view of Beijing. The global outlook of China in the past decade has worsened. Aside from the complicated geopolitical changes, India’s adamant refusal to “business as usual” due to border disputes and America’s altered Taiwan policy in response to Beijing’s military showdown are going to pose additional tribulations for Xi.

Ahead of the Congress, the seventh plenum attended by 370 members of the Central Committee briefed on the party charter are believed to have consented to the continuation of the President at the helm of the affairs.

Clearly, there aren’t going to be any major surprises at the 20^th CCP Congress. China’s premier Li Keqiang is all set to retire in March 2023 and his replacement is all set to be announced at the Congress. With Xi set to remain in power for the next five years, he is expected to name a successor but as of now, Xi hasn’t groomed any successor. Hence it is likely that his successor would be announced at the 20^th Congress implying his continuation for a decade.

With Xi’s consolidation of power which is now a matter of formal announcement, China’s authoritarian regime will turn into a totalitarian, dictatorship. This will effectively put him on par with founding chairman Mao Zedong ushering China into a “cult leadership”.

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