Spy Balloon Episode Exemplifies China’s ‘Grey Zone Tactics’

Casting a shadow over Zelenksy’s fawning of the European countries, the Chinese spy balloon has dominated the geopolitical discourse. The downing of China’s balloon flying at an altitude of 60,000 ft near the coast of the Atlantic course has shifted the global focus to the unrelenting trade and technology disputes between the US and China.

The high-voltage meeting between President Biden and President Xi has sparked hope of a new turn in their relations. The long pending meeting between the US Secretary of State Blinken and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi would have infused a new momentum into the ties that went south. But the hovering of a spy balloon for over a week over America has not only ignited suspicions of China’s grey-zone tactics but also led to a rare unity and an unequivocal strategic consensus on US policy towards China.

In the past eight days, four high-flying objects over the US were shot down leading to the cancellation of diplomatic talks and China’s refusal to take a call from the US Defence Secretary underscoring the fragility of the relationship. This led to the further deterioration of an already tenuous relationship.

On February 10^th, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution unanimously 419-0 that termed the entry of the spy balloon a “clear violation of US sovereignty and international law”¹. Rejecting the condemnation of the resolution by the US House of Representatives, China called it, “purely political manipulation and hyping up”². In reality, the overflight across a territory without permission is clearly a violation of international laws and several analysts believe that China was testing the limits with its diplomatic offensive.

Citing the 1944 Chicago Convention of International Aviation, aviation experts indicated that the US was well within its authority to take down the balloon under the prescribed upper limit of flying 60,000 ft under the exclusive right of sovereignty over its territory which extended 12 nautical miles³. China persisted that the balloon is a ‘civilian unmanned ship’ and part of weather research and to substantiate its claims Beijing sacked the Weather Bureau Chief, Zhuang Guotai. But clearly, the balloon which was 3-4 bus size with five antennae and steered by solar power with high manoeuvrability was not force majeure.

Taking a serious note of the US downing of the spy balloon, Beijing said, “In these circumstances, for the United States to insist on using armed force is clearly an excessive reaction that seriously violates international convention” the statement said. “China will resolutely defend the legitimate rights and interests of the enterprise involved, and retains the right to respond further”.

Indeed, propping up charges, Secretary Blinken stated, “the spy balloon is part of the fleet of surveillance balloons that have flown over 40 countries in five countries” and added, “we already shared the information with dozens of countries across the world, both from Washington and through our embassies”⁴ during NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg’s visit to Washington. Further, hours after the F-22 shot down the second ‘high altitude object’, the US sanctioned six companies identified with the Chinese reconnaissance project.

Chinese surveillance balloon program operating out of Hainan province has collected information on military assets of Japan, India, Vietnam and the Philippines. Taiwan has reported having seen them last year and Indian agencies have also recorded a sighting of a mystery balloon over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Jan 6^th, 2022. The downing of four spy balloons in eight days by the US punctured China’s rather insincere defense with Colombia also reporting a spy balloon over its territory.

Taking the wind out of the speculations of the high-altitude objects being UFOs, the US agencies confirmed that they bore no indications of alien or extra-terrestrial nature though the origin of them remains to be confirmed. Clearly, China has resurrected this old-age practice of espionage using balloons. Now Ukraine’s air force claims to have shot six Russian spy balloons with reconnaissance equipment and corner reflectors intended to damage the air defence systems of Kyiv⁵.

The use of balloons for surveillance is not a recent development. It has been in vogue since the 19^th century for reconnaissance missions. Even before the days of World War II countries attempted to use balloons for spying. Japan used Fu-Go balloons to drop bombs. Indeed, the only loss of life in continental America during WW II was by balloon bombs that killed six which included five children in Oregon⁶. Considered the first successful intercontinental weapons, balloons were a mainstay during the Cold war era.

But somehow, the interest in balloons soon waned and with the advent of space technology countries deployed a constellation of satellites for surveillance. Balloons complement satellite surveillance and escape the radar. While the balloon had the special advantage of being cost-effective, having less footprint, providing high precision images and better monitoring of a limited area, possible drifting, unreliable recovery of stored information and public operation doesn’t make it a reliable option.

Surveillance is an undeniable reality. With the availability of technology, countries are using a panoply of devices and weapons to keep an eye on allies, friends and adversaries. Both US and China surveil each other. Through sophisticated networks, China penetrated American security systems which reached a tipping point in 2015 when it hacked into the Office of Personnel Management and big companies. But the US continued to soft-pedal them.

China’s bold attempt of open spying with the balloon drifting over the critical American infrastructure has indeed ticked off the public reaction. The imagery of a spy balloon has hit the consciousness of the woke community and the deniers who peddled a non-existent China threat. The bipartisan condemnation resolution validates the same. A section of the intelligence that deluded into ‘they are not yet there’ are now concerned.  

At the risk of sparking a bilateral crisis, with its brazen spying, China has openly challenged the rules-based order. With its reputation at stake, the US shot down the spy balloon.  Despite the murmurs of the US overreaction, this spy balloon episode ignited fresh debate on China’s audacity and belligerence.

The spy balloon episode brought to the fore the standard operation protocol of the Dragon familiar to the Indian subcontinent. While strategic experts of the West reason out the appearance of the surveillance balloon ahead of the crucial talks between the US and China, this is hardly surprising to India. China’s intrusive and intimidating tactics have always shadowed the major India-China summit meetings. Coercion has been integral to China’s foreign policy and the West is perhaps, getting the taste of it through these surveillance balloons.

The timing of the balloon, days after the US revived its military alliance with the Philippines and ahead of Blinken’s visit is admittedly, President Xi’s signature ‘strategic signalling’. Operating just below the threshold of conflict has been fundamental to Dragon’s escalation tactics. Signalling disapproval over the Philippines’ rapidly improving relations with the US China resorted to arm-twisting tactics. Chinese coast guard ship used a ‘military-grade’ laser against the Philippines vessel. Manila lodged a serious protest with China as the laser temporarily blinded the Philippines crew trying to resupply troops based on the Second Thomas Shoal⁷. 

After America turned its attention to the Indo-Pacific and began renewing ties with allies and friends in the region, China intensified salami-slicing along the Indo-Pacific border. Banking on the American politicians’ tendency to turn any Chinese concern as a weapon in partisan domestic fights, China is now daringly venturing into the American strategic sphere of influence. Callously escalating ‘grey-zone tactics’ China is challenging the dominant superpower, the US.

This spy balloon has invariably reinforced China’s utter disregard for international rules and demolished the myth of ‘peaceful rise’ forever.

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