Many facets of the Corona Virus outbreak

With every passing day the number of infections and deaths due to the novel Corona Virus (nCV) are steadily mounting. At the time of writing, the official reported infections reached 5974 and killed 132 people in China.

On December 31^st WHO alerted the World of the growing number of severe pneumonia cases in Wuhan City, Hubei province. By January 7^th Chinese authorities reported that the infection is caused by Corona virus which belongs to the family of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) and called it nCov-2019 (1). SARS caused major health emergency in China in Nov 2012-March 2013 killing 800 people across the World and entailing financial losses worth $50 billion. nCoV and SARS have emanated from China. Logically, people have started drawing parallels between the two. The mortality rate of SARS has been 15% as opposed to less than 3% of nCoV, thus far. Going by these numbers some people have downplayed the nCoV threat. Given the vast spread of nCoV and number of infections crossing SARS, it is causing intense concern. Baring Africa and South America the virus has now spread to all continents.

Epidemiological investigations of Chinese researchers revealed that nCoV has “close range droplet transmission”. Meaning, the virus spreads through the sneezing or coughing of the infected person to anyone who comes in contact indicating that nCoV has high pandemic risk. Also, SARS with incubation period of 2-7 days wasn’t contagious when someone had no symptoms, while nCoV with an incubation period of 10-14 days don’t show symptoms but remains contagious. It means the patient would serve as a hidden carrier. Implying that rigorous control and prevention strategies can curtail spread of the virus shifting. As a result, the onus is now on the public health care agencies to curb the rapid transmission.

Consequently, China imposed lock down on Wuhan city and 12 other cities, identified as the epicentre of infection. Imposed ban on wild life trade as Wuhan seafood and animal market was believed to have been the starting point of infection. But even before lockdown, several people left the city on the eve of Lunar New Year increasing the prospect of spread of infection. Intriguingly, despite the impending pandemic threat, WHO cautioned of high alert and refrained from declaring it as a health emergency. WHO’s callous approach has only strengthened of popular perception of China high-level penetration of UN agencies and its growing influence in the intergovernmental organisations. This inadvertently brought to fore appointment of President Xi’s wife Peng Liyuan as WHO good will ambassador for tuberculosis and HIV in 2011 and WHO rescinding invitation to Taiwan for the World Health Assembly (WHA) in 2018. The island attended WHA meet from 2009 and 2016 when the Taiwanese regime during that period kow-towed to mainland China.  While the Tsai-Ing who challenged the Beijing’s authority was denied a invitation at the World forum.

WHO defended its position stating that through unprecedented quarantining of 20 million people China has contained spread of virus. It also indicated that so far beyond China, there were no reports of human to human spread. As the number of infections, increased, WHO designated Corona virus as “public health emergency of international concern” and stopped short of saying it as global emergency which would trigger a concerted global action. People severely criticised WHO’s cautious approach which reminded them of its tepid response towards Ebola outbreak in 2014 which claimed 11,300 lives by the time it ended in 2016 (2).

Sharing his concerns about the origins of nCoV, with The Washington Post, an Israeli biowarfare analyst, Dany Shahom said the virus might have originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a laboratory working on deadly viruses (3). China is known to be working on the Biological Weapons under dual military-civilian program. While the institute is under Chinese Academy of Sciences, a unit, Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory at the institute engaged in research in Ebola, Nipah and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever viruses is known to have links with PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) and BW (Biological Weapons)-related elements within Chinese defence establishment. It no secret that there exists no demarcation between the military and civilian institutions in China, research involving dangerous pathogens have imbued geopolitical implications as well. This observation will raise hackles in diplomatic circles as well.

Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory was certified a BSL-4 (Bio Safety Laboratory) a biocontainment of highest safety capable of handling level 4 pathogens in January 2017. Chinese Academy of Sciences approved the construction of the lab in 2003. In the aftermath of the SARS infection, underscoring the importance of tackling any health emergence with the assistance from France, Beijing managed to finish the construction by 2015. Scientists trained in Lyon for years to work on these organisms. Since 2017, the lab started working on BSL-3 organisms and steadily expanded it to BSL-4 research on primates which are abundant in China. Japan has been the first Asian country to have biocontainment laboratory in 1981. Later Taiwan built two such laboratories. Despite concerns of gigantic proportions on humanity from virulent pathogens, Western countries like the US and France are racing to build more laboratories. China which regards these kinds of developments as badge of honour, not be left behind considered BSL-4 facility as a status symbol.

Western scientists have expressed worries about Chinese lab since SARS has escaped containment lab in Beijing multiple times. China’s record in handling these zoonotic virus (virus which spread from animals to humans) has been poor. Mincing no words, Tim Trevan founder of CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland told Nature that “an open culture is important for maintaining BSL-4 containment labs” (4). Transparency and openness in sharing information are crucial. These aspects are lacking in China. Further the regulations in the use of animal for testing these pathogens are less stringent. Instead of working towards bringing more transparency, stringency in use of primates for experiments and openness in science, China is expanding the network. It has built such dual facility containment labs in Harbin, Beijing, Kunming and awaiting accreditation. Wuhan Biosafety Laboratory is just 20 miles from the Wuhan seafood markets and the scientific community believes that the virus must have mutated, leaked out of the lab and through animal-human contact became epicentre of the virus. China’s poor compliance record in toxin research and development is only adding more weight to such speculations. While the Chinese propaganda machinery is trying to present the outbreak of the contagion as a western ploy, there are no takers for this theory.

While the World is in awe at the scale and speed Chinese government is mobilising resources to spread the contagion, 56 million Chinese who are under lockdown are now complaining about the restrictions. Wuhan’s health system is showing cracks. The Mayor is blaming Beijing for downplaying the threat and censoring information. Hospitals are running out of supplies. The façade of the party’s infallibility and efficiency to handle any situation is now slowly falling apart.  Cracks within the system are showing up. People are questioning the omnipotence of the government. Given China’s opaque style of functioning, experts are suspecting underreporting. Countries are now evacuating their citizens due to major health risks. Neighbouring country (read as Malaysia) is taking a dig at the Chinese diverse food habits as well.

China disclosed about SARS three months after its outbreak. People are suspecting similar coverup even now. SARS hit China when its economy is at its peak and hence the country bounced back to normalcy without a hitch. Chinese economy is currently going through a slowdown. The restrictions on travel and trade together with lockdown and suspension of regular activity will have a major toll on economy. Oil prices fell due to a dip in demand. Stock markets across the globe are witnessing a slump. Tourism has plummeted. China accounts for one third of the global trade and the extension of the Lunar New Year Holidays have bolstered fears of the Corona epidemic. The tremors of trade slump are now felt by global markets.

Scientists in Hongkong are reported to have isolated the virus and developed a vaccine (5). But testing in animals is going to take time. Australian scientists have recreated the virus. This can help in early diagnosis and vaccine development (6). US and China have intensified their efforts as well. Much awaited Sino-US trade deal is believed to offered a much-needed boost to the Chinese economy. But the Corona virus outbreak has not only hit the economy, it exposed the fissures in Chinese governance and the invincibility of Xi. Above all, now Beijing’s biowarfare program is under scrutiny as well.

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India-Brazil script a blueprint to strengthen strategic partnership

Honouring India’s invitation to be chief guest on the 71^st Republic Day, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro arrived on a four-day, first state visit to India on Jan 24^th.  Bolsonaro is third Brazilian President to grace the Republic Day parade after President Fernando Cardaso in 1996 and Lula de Silva in 2004.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi who met President Bolsonaro along the sidelines of the 11^th BRICS summit at Brazil extended India’s invitation. This invitation drew immediate flak from the left-wing leaders who derided Bolsonaro for his misogynistic, homophobic retorts. Bolsonaro, a former military officer, who swept 2018 Presidential elections took charge on Jan 1^st 2019. Months into presidency, he derided climate change theories and revamped the environment policies. Deemed as “Trump of the Tropics”, he sullied his own image after a spat with French President Emmanuel Macron over the unrelenting Amazon Forest fires and rebuking his wife. Around the same time, Brazil along with Australia and Guatemala complained to WTO against India’s subsides to sugarcane farmers and demanded setting up of a panel to investigate these charges which are in violation of global trading rules. Brazil has been India’s competitor in Sugar exports and this move has clearly created some rifts between both the countries. Against these contentious developments, determined to deepen India’s footprint in the Latin America, which has been the backyard of the US and the expanding domain of the China, Modi made the first move.

Unlike his dominant leftist predecessors Bolsonaro wooed the US. He dumped the traditional South-South cooperation, a common thread that brought the three giants- Brazil, South Africa and India together under the IBSA (India Brazil South Africa) forum. Devoid of representative voting rights in the global bodies, countries which are non-aligned, formerly colonised, cold war nationalities also referred to as “Third World” countries emerged as Global South. This shared geopolitical vision has been corner stone of multilateral arrangements like BRICS and G-4. Global South is actively promoted by the leftist regimes in Latin America (as they believed that capitalist globalisation has severely impacted their economies).

But Bolsonaro had a different vision for Brazil. Preferring to be part of the league of developed countries, OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) Bolsonaro hankered for the US support. To resurrect economy, Bolsonaro pledged to intensify trade ties with countries with compatible ideology-Israel, Poland, Hungary, Italy and the US. Having ensconced America in protectionism Trump hardly bothered to respond to Bolsonaro’s overtures and threatened of tariffs on steel. Interestingly, despite Trump’s tepid response, Bolsonaro sought pride in Western identity.  Netanyahu mired in corruption scandals and elections, Italy wading through ouster of coalition government Bolsonaro was forced to make fresh changes in his approach.

Bolsonaro ascended to power on the promise of reviving the economy reeling under slump, slowdown and corruption. He towed a tough anti-Chinese stand saying, “the Chinese are not buying in Brazil but they are buying Brazil” visited Taiwan during his Presidential campaign. Brazil reaped benefits of the US-China trade war. After China stopped importing Soybeans from the US it placed orders from Brazil. Catering to the interests of the agricultural community and businesses, Bolsonaro steadily dumped the anti-Chinese rhetoric and even announced visa-free entry to China and Indian short-term business travellers. To have a wider market access, Brazil started looking towards Asia. Giving a massive fillip to Indo-Brazilian ties, accompanied by 8 ministers, 4 members of parliament and 62-member business delegation, Bolsonaro landed in India.

India and Brazil, both vibrant democracies and pluralistic societies share similar developmental and global aspirations. Brazil the largest country in South America with population of over 200 million and $1.8 trillion economy is a rich in minerals, oil, natural gas and largest producer of ethanol. In 2006, countries elevated ties to strategic partnership. As of 2018, bilateral trade touched $8.2 billion skewed in favour of Brazil, which exports crude oil, gold, vegetable oil, sugar, bulk mineral and ores as opposed to India’s agro-chemicals, synthetic yarn, auto parts, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products. Indian investments in Brazil account for $6 billion while Brazilian invested $1 billion in automobiles, IT, energy, mining and engineering sector in India.

Modi’s successful proactive foreign policy transformed India’s outreach perceptibly but South America was still out of its radar. South America endowed with rich natural resources and huge market potential can be an ideal ground for India’s manufacturing sector.  For long, Middle East has been the biggest source of India’s energy supplies. Escalating tensions and the looming uncertainties are keeping India on tenterhook. India is slowly diversifying its imports. Endowed with rich natural resources, South America can be a promising energy exporter. India has also set an ambitious target of 175GW renewable energy by 2022. Brazil can be its best bet to achieve this target as it has the most advanced ethanol program in the World.  Brazil, is among the most influential countries in the region is part of two influential blocs- Mercosur and Prosur. Mercosur, is South American trading block also called the Southern Common Market promotes free trade. It has four full members- Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, seven associate members and two observers which include New Zealand and Mexico. Prosur (Forum for Progress of South America) a recently formed regional bloc for economic and regional cooperation is predominantly right-wing, includes eight South American countries-Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay and Peru.  Brazil played a crucial role in India-Mercosur Preferential Treaty Agreement (PTA) which increased India’s access to Latin America. India’s strategic economic cooperation with Brazil can complementarily enhance connect with the continent as well.

As of now Foreign office consultations, Joint Working Groups and Trade Monitoring mechanisms are used to carry forward dialogue and cooperation in various sectors. To deepen the strategic partnership, during Bolsonaro’s visit, countries signed an “Action Plan”. The Indo-Brazil Joint Commission for political, economic, scientific, technological and cultural cooperation will reconvene every two years and monitor the implementation of the same. To review the progress, the plan is divided into six thematic areas- Political and strategic cooperation; trade and commerce, investments, agriculture, civil aviation and energy mechanisms; science, technology and innovation, space cooperation, environment and technical cooperation, health mechanisms; defence and security mechanisms; culture and education mechanisms and consular issues, social security and legal cooperation mechanism.

India and Brazil signed 15 MoUs in bioenergy cooperation, petroleum and natural gas, investment cooperation and facilitation, Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty (MLAT) in criminal matters, health and medicine, cultural exchange, social security, ICT, science and technology, mining, investment promotion, animal husbandry and dairying. Amongst these MoUs, the treaty of Investment cooperation and facilitation is ground breaking as it intends to deal with conflicts and disputes between foreign companies and host country without international arbitration. This will definitely give head start to economic cooperation. India has evolved new Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). Since 2015 India has scrapped existing treaties with over 83 countries and signed new BIT with Belarus, Cambodia and Kyrgyzstan.

Given the complementarities and synergies countries laid foundation for a collaboration between India’s “National Bio-Fuel Policy” with Brazil’s “Renova” program, a sugarcane-based ethanol generation program. This joint bioethanol production program can offer a mutually agreed solution to Brazil’s complaints against India over subsidies to sugarcane growers. India and Brazil are agrarian countries. Fostering cooperation in agriculture and food processing, India recently launched Maitri, Agro-tech cross incubation program where five agriculture startups from both countries would visit their partner countries to workout innovative policies in agriculture. Strengthening bilateral cooperation in Animal Husbandry and Dairying, countries agreed to set up Centre for Excellence in Cattle Genomics at Kalsi, Uttarakhand. Defence industrial cooperation has been another front, countries are focusing to promote. A large Brazilian delegation is expected to attend India Defence Expo in Lucknow, next month.

Brazil, powerhouse of South America is considered as regional power like India. Both countries which are firmly unified in their demand for reforms in UNSC and seeking permanent membership are known to pursue independent foreign policies. Interestingly, both countries which don’t have historical baggage have mutual respect for each other diversities. India’s yoga and Ayurveda are popular in Brazil and Indians are crazy about Brazilian football and samba. With over 20% of their population below the poverty line, both governments face similar challenges of alleviating poverty and reducing growing income inequalities. Like India, Brazil is sceptical of a marauding China and its BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) and stayed away from joining the connectivity project. Shared concerns about China can thus be another factor which can bring both countries together. As leaders of the Third World, India and Brazil have been at the forefront raising issues concerning developing countries. With global rebalancing underway, regional powers like India and Brazil which favour a multipolar World must come together as a bulwark against expansionist powers.

Lending directionality to strategic partnership, countries signed “Action Plan” to transform this stagnant relationship by 2023, which marks 75 years of diplomatic ties. Notwithstanding the negative sceptics over Bolsonaro’s ascendancy and his style of functioning, Prime Minister gave much need impetus to Indo-Brazilian trade and investment to realise the full potential that exists between nations.

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Duma unanimously approves sweeping Constitutional changes proposed by President Putin

On January 15^th in his annual state address to the Federation Assembly President Vladimir Putin announced his intention to bring about radical constitutional reforms. These tactical moves, indicative of major changes in the balance of power hinted at Putin’s attempts to strengthen his stranglehold over Russia. Hours after the speech, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his entire cabinet resigned. Barely into the third year of his fourth term as the President, drastic constitutional changes have hinted at Putin’s plausible attempts to remain powerful much beyond 2024. A day after Medvedev’s resignation Putin replaced him with a former tax service head, Mikhail Mishustin a total stranger to Russian political circles. His appointment was unanimously approved by state Duma, the lower house of Russian Parliament dominated by the ruling party United Russia.

In what can be termed as redistribution of powers among the various agencies of Russian government, the proposed changes bestow more powers to the Parliament. Earlier President would appoint Prime Minister and Duma approves it. New changes entitle Duma to appoint the Prime Minister and Cabinet. This is accompanied by increased role for the advisory board called state council. The Presidency still retains the right to dismiss Prime Minister and the Cabinet and name defence and security officials. Under the proposed changes, President’s candidate for Prime Ministerial position will need to get formal confirmation from Duma (currently a consent would suffice). Similarly, Duma’s confirmation is must for nomination of Cabinet Ministers.

The timing and nature of the changes are creating fresh doubts about Putin’s intentions to be in total control of administration and governance. The changes though unsurprising as many analysts pointed is a fresh attempt by Putin to stay in power even after 2024. Denied a third consecutive term as per Constitution, Putin has hit upon with the new idea of making some changes in the constitution. A poll survey conducted by government agency in Russia at the end of last year where 68% favoured changes in the constitution, Putin has effectively used this strategy to give a shape to his ideas for Russia. Also, with Parliamentary elections scheduled for September 2021, many consider that Putin’s announcement makes lot of sense. The most important change has been making the Parliament a more powerful body and inclusion of little-known regional State Council under precincts of constitution. State council has been an advisory body comprising of regional leaders and governors. In 2000 Putin created State Council whose functions were vaguely defined. Intuitively in his announcement Putin has enhanced role of governors. While the role of President has been weakened.

Taking a cue from these proposed changes, analysts put forth three plausible pathways Putin might follow. The choicest path might be removal of term limits for President which is the Belarusian way. At an annual conference in December, Putin hinted at removing the term ‘consecutive’ from the constitution. Reportedly, the word, ‘consecutive’ is removed from the proposed amendments released on January 20^th. As of now, the outcome is subject to much interpretation. Second one being the Kazakhstan’s style where a constitutional advisory body, Security council would take major decisions. The decisions ruled by it are mandatory and subject to strict execution by state bodies. President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan became Chairman of the security council for life after he ceased to be President and remained at the helm of the affairs. He served as President for 30 years. With the elevation of a peripheral body, Russian State Council into a constitutional entity, analysts believe that Putin might follow Kazakh way. By way of strengthening the powers of Parliament, Putin has even kept open the option of becoming the Prime Minister as well. But with Parliamentary elections scheduled to be held in September 2021, Putin may not risk leaving Presidential turf to become a Prime Minister. But the option of invoking the Russia-2008 kind of scenario can’t be ruled out completely as of now.

Days after Putin’s announcement a working group drafted a law on the changes and placed it before Duma. Duma voted in favour of the draft law after the first round of reading today. It will be subject to another round of voting in February and to a tentative public vote in April. In the meanwhile, the unprecedented hurry in passing these amendments is making lot of buzz in international circles. The sense of the urgency is now viewed as a sign of nervousness on Kremlin.

Yesterday, a new cabinet has been constituted with a key objective of revamping Russian economy. Deteriorating socio-economic conditions of Russia, has turned public hostile towards Putin’s government. His approval ratings have slumped. Putin’s party, United Russia, is slowly losing public support and candidates are contemplating to contest as independents in Parliamentary elections.

To quell the public discontent over stagnating economy, Putin has facilitated removal of Medvedev, the face of the government and replace him with Mishustin, a technocrat, efficient administrator with no political ambitions to boost economy.  Putin rewarded trusted ally, Medvedev with the position of Deputy head of national security council. Security council is headed by Putin.

Ushering some reforms, Putin is attempting to resurrect his flailing political fortunes. Finance and Energy ministers as well as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu both staunch allies of Putin are retained in the new cabinet. To shape his domestic and foreign policy all other key ministers are replaced. Opposition leader Navalny termed this move as an attempt to woo the Russian public deeply disenchanted by longstanding economic woes.

Putin also announced a slew of reforms, including “pay outs” to families to stem the declining demography and national projects worth $400 billion with huge investments in infrastructure, digital economy, education and health. Russia has accumulated significant reserves putting in place austerity measures and managed to achieve surplus budgets. Now Putin is planning to use these reserves to make generous dole outs which includes “maternity payment” on the birth of first child, additional payment on birth of second and third child. He proposed tax breaks for bigger families, extended benefits to kids between 3-7 years and free school meals for the first four years of the school. Restrictions are tightened on Presidential candidates who have held foreign citizenship or residency permits. New draft law requires them to have lived in Russia for 25 years. It banned law makers, cabinet ministers from holding secondary citizenship. New changes limited the supremacy of the international law and prioritised Russian constitution over international treaties.

Having steadily risen in ranks, Boris Yelstin picked up Putin, a former KGB agent as his successor. In March 2000, Putin took charge as President and served for two consecutive terms abiding by the statutory constitutional rules. In 2008, he appointed a pliant Medvedev as the President, increased the Presidential tenure to six years and remained in control of Russian governance. Putin stormed into power with 60% votes in 2012 Presidential elections. Consolidating his popularity, registering 76% votes, he retained his Presidency in 2018. Having exhausted all options to be in control of Russian affairs, the new constitutional changes are his last bet. He made similar amendments in 2008, which formed the first set of substantial changes to Constitution of Russia in 1993.

Over the years, Russia is identified with Putin and his prolonged dominance made him indispensable. Like President Xi, Putin had been averse to grooming a successor. Though Russia is Semi-Presidential federation, all the constitutional institutions are reduced to nominal entities. Duma, Federation Council, and security council failed to emerge as counter weight to Putin. With all the powers centred around single individual, Russia has transformed into a personalised autocracy. The new constitutional changes are tipped to make the President “Leader for Life”.

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External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar outlines "India's way" at Raisina Dialogue

5^th edition of the three-day Raisina Dialogue began in New Delhi on 14^th January. Jointly organised by the Ministry of External Affairs and think-tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Raisina Dialogue is India’s flagship global conference on geopolitics and geo-economics. It is an outshoot of Modi’s grand vision for India. As a rising power, Modi envisioned that India has its own platform to organise discourses and shape narratives. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj launched it on March 1^st, 2016. 100 speakers from 35 countries attended the first edition themed “Asia: Regional and Global Connectivity”. This Indian initiative is an attempt to analyse global challenges, explore solutions and offer a stable transition into an era of rapidly changing World order. Five years since its inception, this dialogue has evolved into a vibrant platform. Current edition brought together 800 participants from 100 countries including 80 African countries. With over 40% female speakers, the platform is now lodestar of gender equality as well.

Inaugurated by Prime Minister Modi, opening session featuring seven former heads of state- Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan Stephen Harper of Canada, Helen Clarke of New Zealand, Carl Blindt of Sweden, Anders Rasmussen of Denmark, Tshering Tobgay of Bhutan and Hang Sueng-soo of South Korea discussed on the key themes of 2020 Raisina Dialogue, the global challenges-Climate change, technology and digital age, democracy and multilateralism. The panel unanimously rated response to climate change as dominant challenge of 2020.

Coming close on the heels of de-escalation of tensions in Middle East, India’s global conference provided a platform for Iran’s Foreign Minister Zavad Zarif to do diplomacy and put forth Iran’s perspective on the brewing geopolitical conundrum.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov questioned the need for change in semantics of Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific and propped up India’s candidature for UNSC permanent membership. On the final day, US representative and India’s foreign secretary clarified that Asia-Pacific is a colonial construct, while Indo-Pacific is a global common, stretching from Kilimajaro to East Africa and doesn’t isolate China. Foreign Ministers from Maldives, Australia, South Africa, Estonia, Latvia, Hungary, Uzbekistan, EU, Czech Republic and Denmark attended the conference. Reflective of India’s substantial diplomatic rise, in the past five years, Raisina Dialogue evolved into a vibrant summit by bringing together strategic thinkers from different countries.

Raisina Dialogue broadly pivots on tripod of focus on global challenges, engagement with diverse groups and leveraging global contradictions which is also the foreign policy mantra of Modi government. India is often critiqued for punching below its weight and shying away from power. In the aftermath of the slew of iconic legislations, like triple talaq, abrogation of article 370 and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), India was gripped by orchestrated halo of contradictions. Strategists who hailed Modi government’s aggressive and pro-active foreign policy launched scathing attacks on its political decisions. Undermining the accumulated diplomatic heft and global influence of the past five years, media churned out editorials condemning government’s political decisions which they rued would drastically undercut India’s international stature.

After the withdrawal of special status to Kashmir, marshalling diplomatic corps, through an extensive outreach, India apprised the countries of the indispensability of terminating the transient Article 370 for the economic development of the strategically important Jammu and Kashmir. Deeming complete integration of J&K as an assault on its larger strategic interests Pakistan initiated an anti-India propaganda roping in the Western media. Through extensive engagement, India demolished Pakistan’s attempts to internationalise the issue. Partnering with the western liberal media that lends platform to the anti-BJP voices, Pakistan began to tarnish Modi government’s image using epithets like-majoritarian, fascist, anti-minority, intolerant. Taking a leaf out of Western media’s narrative that government’s legislation would harm international image and foreign investment, a tribe of self-conscientious strategic thinkers firmed up criticisms. An uptick in slanderous campaign against government, raising alarm over its implications on global perception of India began markedly significant after the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). Critics propelled an apprehensive tenor and created illusionary fear of isolation. Soon, the narrative of hyphenation of India with an intolerant Pakistan began to find dominate the discourse. A former foreign secretary, termed CAA as a “self-inflicted goal”.

Article 370 and CAA are constitutional changes and internal matters of India. Any self-respecting country can never brook external intervention in domestic affairs. But strangely, by questioning the democratic functioning of an elected government and their transparently debated legislations in the Parliament, the lobbyists are doing a great disservice to nation. Caught up in this quagmire of senseless narrative peddled by the anti-Modi media, strategists are making hue and cry over India’s receding international reputation. Giving a religious hue to the bill meant to offer succour to the refugees who fled religious persecution, the lobby is perpetrating canards of India stumbling from the global pecking order.

From the platform of the Raisina Dialogue, S Jaishankar dispelled pessimistic outrage. Encapsulating the essence of India, he enunciated that India is not a disruptionist, mercantilist or self-centred power but a stabilising and a law-abiding power. As a steadily emerging voice of the South, India firmly believes in rules-based order.

Effectively warding off the vicious anti-India propaganda regarding CAA and article 370, Jaishankar submitted, world has common challenges- terrorism, separatism, migration. India is facing the national variant of these challenges.  Every country has its own way of responding to them. It is important that countries don’t develop a fixated idea as what is best is for others and judge them. India has inherited some problems. Instead of multiplying them and passing them off, the current dispensation chose to deal with them.

Retaliating to the western media driven polarised pernicious anti-India propaganda, who criticised the minister for snubbing Premila Jaypal, who gave free pass to Pakistani contestations and whitewashed its cross-border terrorism, Minister countered, “people are entitled to have opinions and people are entitled to have opinions on other people’s opinions”. Refusing to kow-tow to the whims of the Pakistani lobbyists, Jaishankar asserted India’s position on CAA. 

He asked countries to introspect their actions on things like naturalisation (immigration laws) and the pathway they adopted. India is prisoner of past image but it now trying to get beyond that. It now wants to be more of a shaper, decider rather than being an abstainer. In an oblique reference to the lobbyists who perpetually seek Western approval he reacted, “are we going to define ourselves or let other people define us?”.

Alluding to the global challenges, which is the theme of the summit, Jaishankar used the forum to highlight India’s meaningful value-additions to alleviate them. India’s pioneering efforts towards Climate change remain underappreciated and Jaishankar supported his claims citing India’s coveted Climate Actions Tracker ranking. Having acceded to the Paris agreement and pledged to limit emissions, India is placed in the second-best category-<2°C compatible along with Bhutan, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Philippines and Kenya and placed below the highest ranked countries Morocco and the Gambia. While developed countries languished in the insufficient and highly insufficient categories. But India is yet to make a head start in technology. Its traditional perspective of technology for economic benefits must transition into analysing it as effective strategic instrument.

Bucking the prejudiced perception of India laggard delivery of connectivity projects, in the past five years, India handled 142 projects and efficiently delivered 53 of them in the immediate neighbourhood. Besides it refurbished pre-1965 Bangladesh road and rail networks, waterways, ports, built houses for Sri Lankan Tamils, launched first petrol pipeline in South Asia between Motihari to Amlekhunj, finished hydroelectric projects in Nepal and Afghanistan. India has built a big convention centre in Niger in a record time of 14 months and expediting projects in Sudan, Rwanda Ethiopia.  

Being a vital player, India has enormous stakes in the region. Jaishankar enumerated India’s relations with other powers and various stakeholders in the region Succinctly, summing up Indo-China unique relationship he said, “very rarely in history have two powers who are neighbours actually gone up in the international order at approximately the same time. Each one is reaching a new equilibrium with the world but also each other”. To make the relationship work, both countries must find accommodation and understanding on key issues. He termed Indo-Russian relationship as extraordinarily stable and sustained by strong sentiments which are rational.

In the past few decades, Indo-US strategic partnership has become most comprehensive with extensive ranging from G to G (Government), B to B (Business), T to T (technology), P to P (People) and now B to G. “There’s virtually no area of activity where India and the US don’t work with each other and deal with other…pick a sector and I’ll show you something substantive happening in the relationship” he added. India-Australia relations are poised for big jump. But both countries must step up in terms of regional and global responsibilities. India is underperforming with Europe which is largest trade partner, important technology partner and financial power. India must strike strategic conversations with Europe on collective and subgroup basis to energise relations.

As the net security provider of the region, India has signed 16 white shipping agreements, given naval equipment to eight neighbours and stationed surveillance radars in 6 coastal countries and conducted 7 HADR Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief operations. As a responsible global power, India extended line of credit worth $2 billion to 11 countries, trained more than 100 troops, conducted military training teams in 11 countries, and forged hydrographic cooperation with five maritime neighbours in the past five years. Modi government has painstakingly accumulated enough diplomatic capital and diligently built a Brand India.

Rebutting the bigoted criticism and busting the pessimistic nimbus, Jaishankar defined India’s way- “We are a pluralistic society and a market economy. What has changed with more influence and greater capacity is that we express ourselves more decisively”.  

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China’s Stand-off with Indonesia at Natuna Island

At a time when the international discourse is dominated by the whirl pool of attacks and counter attacks in the Middle East, China is stealthily asserting its claims over Indonesian EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). Echoing India’s invasion at the height of the Cuban crisis, China has launched its South China Sea annexation scheme. Towards the end of December four Chinese Maritime Law enforcement ships entered the Indonesian EEZ with 63 fishing vessels into the Natuna island chain. Despite repeated warnings, Chinese vessels lingered in the region.

Natuna islands are located in the Riau Island province is the northern most region of Indonesia. The 200 nautical miles from this region which is still the EEZ of Indonesia overlaps with the China’s Nine Dash line. China violated Indonesian territorial sovereignty by entering the region claiming it to be traditional fishing ground of Chinese fisherman. This region being far end of the SCS has been the region of contestation for quite some time. Chinese fishing incursions have been a regular event. Afflicted by illegal fishing and incursions, in October 2015 President Jokowi issued an order to form a combat territorial force SATGAS 115. But the Chinese fishing vessels continued to enter to this region.

In June 2016, as a direct message to China, President Jokowi visited Natuna Island in a Naval warship, held a limited cabinet meeting and approved funds to develop a military base in Natuna. Clearly, China’s repeated incursions predominant buttressed anti-Chinese sentiments in the island. Interestingly, China’s transgression in 2016 came just days after its vehement refusal to abide by the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s verdict. In October, asserting control Indonesian Navy held a grand military exercise near Natuna. Unabated Chinese aggression forced Jokowi to herald a new policy. Constituting a taskforce, by mid July 2017, Indonesia renamed the EEZ of Natuna islands as “North Natuna Sea” and issued new names to 1,106 islands in the region. With this Jokowi who was perceived as pro-Chinese by some sections not only successfully burnished his nationalist credentials but delivered a strong strategic message to China. Indonesia submitted this new change to the UN and reasoned that policy will prevent confusion among sea farers about the continental shelf and provide new guidelines to the Law Enforcement Team of Indonesian Navy.

On December 30^th, Indonesian Foreign Minister asserted that, “Indonesia did not have an overlapping claim with China”. He added, Indonesia “will never recognise nine-dash line which contravenes both UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and the UNCLOS 2016 tribunal ruling”. But the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson insisted that ships were performing routine activities to protect Chinese legitimate rights and interests in the relevant region. Undeterred Indonesia’s strong stance, to initiate negotiations, Beijing maintained, “China would like to work with Indonesia to continue managing disputes properly through bilateral dialogue and maintain friendly cooperation, as well as peace and stability in SCS”.

Cognizant of China’s stealthy annexation attempts of Spartly’s islands, Indonesia flatly refused the possibility of any dialogue. Indonesia objected to Chinese claims as “unilateral”, had no legal basis and never recognised by UNCLOS. It rejected Chinese assertion that its fishermen have been active in this region. Though Indonesian Navy have driven away Chinese vessels from Natuna’s EEZ they continued to lurk in the region.

On Jan 8^th, in what can be termed as the repeat of 2016, Jokowi visited Natuna Islands to take stock of the situation. Launching, “Operation Combat Alert Natuna Sea 2020” Indonesian Navy beefed up forces, stationed eight warships. Airforce deployed four F-16s to patrol the region. Government encouraged the presence of fishing trawlers ordered the authorities to make necessary arrangements to populate the islands with immediate effect.

After Indonesia lost Sipadan and Libitan islands to Malaysia in International Court of Justice ruling in 2002, it began to adopt an uncompromising stand towards its sovereignty. Being the largest archipelago with over 17,500 islands and rooted in a sea faring tradition it understands the importance of securing maritime interests. Indonesia which straddles two oceans- Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, is a significant player in Asian and Australasian regions. Its waters are plagued by illegal, unregulated fishing, unresolved border disputes, piracy and terrorism. To tackle and streamline the maritime challenges and liabilities and turn them into beneficial opportunities, Jokowi envisioned Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) strategy. As a part of GMF, Indonesia created new maritime security Agency, BAKAMLA.

Under GMF, Indonesia made extensive plans to develop 24 deep sea ports to connect Sumatra, Jakarta, Java, Borneo, Sulawesi and South Papua. With an eye on infrastructure development, Indonesia fostered ties with China. Economic ties prospered. China is now Indonesia’s largest trading and investment partner. Indonesia which is dire need of improving connectivity partnered with China under the BRI to boost infrastructure development. It recently allocated projects worth $91.1 billion under BRI to China. Plans of shifting capital city from Jakarta to Borneo on cards, Indonesia increasingly relied on China for construction and development of new capital.

China knows that Indonesia needs the Dragon for crucial infrastructure development. In a veiled threat to Indonesia, China invoked BRI and its bilateral relations defending its incursions. Given China’s reputation of penetrative expansionism, Indonesia refused to budge from its stated position. Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister while acknowledging the importance of trade and investment relations, unequivocally asserted that country’s sovereignty is not for sale to Beijing.

China’s adventurism in the SCS knows no bounds. According to some reports on January 3^rd Chinese Coast Guard Cutter threatened Malaysian offshore ship Executive Benevolence 125 nautical miles north west of Luconia breakers. On January 9^th 38 stationary Chinese boats were found close to Pag-asa Islands, located in Spartly Island group claimed by Philippines. Ever since Philippines constructed a beaching ramp and turned it into sheltered port, China began contesting it. Soon it turned into region of high confrontation between both countries. Throughout 2019, Philippines and China wrangled over the Pag-asa island. Employing asymmetric warfare and using its swarming and ramming tactic, China denied smaller neighbours their control over claimed regions through coercion. Spurned by constant threats from China, Philippines has set a goal of recruiting 25,000 personnel by 2025 to safe guard its waters.

In December, Malaysia challenged Chinese claims in SCS and asked the UN to issue a clarity on the limits of its continental shelf beyond the limits of 200 nautical miles in the north SCS. China is embroiled with Vietnam over territorial incursions and oil exploration in the continental shelf nearly every year. Months long stand-off between China and Vietnam near Vanguard coast ended in October. For the first time after 2009, Vietnam released a white paper outlining the unilateral, coercive actions of China.

China nearly claims 90% of the SCS which is contested by five countries-Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. At the heart of the maritime disputes in the region has been Chinese greed to control the access of SCS through which trade worth $5 trillion passes, its desire to explore and exploit the natural resources in the region especially oil and natural gas and turn it into an impregnable Chinese military fortress.

Indonesia which is not keen in ruffling feathers avoided confrontation with China for long. Notwithstanding Beijing’s assertive approach, Indonesia maintained close relations. Commemorating 70 years of diplomatic ties foreign ministers of both countries agreed to strengthen comprehensive strategic partnership. Indonesia even sought Chinese help in modernising its military. But Indonesia’s steadfast diplomatic approach hasn’t deterred Beijing from these escalating cyclical incursions. Militarily Indonesia can’t match the Goliath China. Jakarta can’t take on the Dragon directly. It is time Indonesia begin reinforcing alignments with South East Asian Countries. Indonesia is the largest economy in the South East Asia and has largest armed forces. It is the leader of ASEAN countries. Together with the claimant nations, it should force ASEAN to review trade and investment cooperation with China. Alternately, Indonesia should contemplate using bilateral cooperation under BRI and multilateral cooperation under RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) as a leverage. [Malaysia and Myanmar sought a review of BRI projects by threatening to cancel projects]. Amidst this stand-off Jokowi has asked Japan to step up its investments in Indonesia. Also, at the height tensions with China, America’s International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) a competitor of BRI arrived in Jakarta to express its interest to participate in Indonesia’s development projects. In a bid to undercut the indispensability of China, Indonesia is planning to secure financial assistance worth $5 billion from America’s financial wing for developing countries and private sector. Clearly, Chinese hegemonic overbearing and a persistent threat to sovereignty might eventually force nations to look for alternate sources.

Despite being a non-claimant of the SCS territorial disputes, Indonesia is now facing the constant incursion threats from China. ASEAN which used to be a cohesive unit began to fall apart under the China’s influence. Indonesia must strive to bring these nations together and prevail on China to wrap up the “Code of Conduct”. ASEAN has set 2021 as the deadline under Vietnam’s chairmanship. ASEAN countries by staking active claim forced the QUAD to recognise the pre-eminence of ASEAN in the Indo-Pacific region. Voicing their concerns as a single unit, ASEAN can force China to respect the sovereignty rights of all the nations in the regions and refrain from infringing the sovereignty of these countries. ASEAN countries have been at the receiving end of China’s hegemony and unabated expansionism. As the largest country, Indonesia must try bring the nations together to raise the military and non-military costs for China to curtail its unrestrained hegemony.

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Amidst heightened tensions, Iran seeks India’s initiation for de-escalation

In the aftermath of assassination of Iranian Commander Qasem Soleimani, amidst unprecedented geopolitical churning in the Middle East, things are moving thick and fast. The scale of activity and the casualties are now grabbing the headlines. A day after killing of Soleimani, six people were reportedly killed in an air strike on a convoy carrying Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) pro-Iranian militia in North Baghdad. This was followed by two rocket attacks in Green Zone of Baghdad towards US Embassy. Ketaib Hezbollah widened attacks and hurled motor shells at US Embassy. Incidentally on the same day al-Shahbaab terror operatives attacked US air base in Kenya killing an American soldier and two US contractors. Shia militia intensified attacks on American assets.

Stirring this geopolitical cauldron, Trump warned of cultural bombing if Iran continues to attack American personnel or assets.  He indicated that 52 cultural sites are identified for this purpose, the number of Americans held hostage by Iran during the 1979 revolution. This triggered an international debate and forced Trump to tone down his rhetoric. Softening the stance, State secretary Pompeo initiated talks with diplomats of various countries and apprised them of the situation in Middle East.

Iraqi Wrath

But emotions are running high in both Iran and Iraq. As expected, Iran is irrevocably miffed by the killing of the second in the order of power, Soleimani. Iraq is interminably angered by the death of the deputy commander of PMU Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. PMU which fought with Al-Qaeda and ISIS is a legitimate force. Deeming the assassination of a commander in airstrike by America as a violation of an agreement by occupational forces, Iraq fired first salvo. Iraq which has become theatre of current conflict, drummed up its protest against America. In an extraordinary parliamentary session, Iraq passed a resolution demanding the expulsion of foreign troops. Parliament stated that with the defeat of IS in 2017, the purpose of stationing of international coalition has been accomplished. Hence the 5200 American troops must be ordered to leave Iraq. It called the end of 2014 resolution that welcomed coalition troops into the country. But the radical groups felt that Iraqi government’s rather timid response for the violation of sovereignty and escalation was too little.

Interestingly, not everyone was really dismayed by the killing of Soleimani and Iraqi commander. Indeed, people cheered and danced on roads of Baghdad when the first reports filtered in. Kurds and Sunnis who suffered at the hands of dominant Shia militia in Iraq desired American presence. Most Iraqi’s detested growing Iranian influence in the region and huge protests in the past of couple months symbolised Iraqis growing distrust and dissent towards the Pro-Iranian Shia political establishment. But the high-profile assassinations of two prominent Shia militia commanders brought Iran and Iraq together, boosting Shia consolidation and eventually pushing Iraq into Iran’s embrace.

In response to the Iraq’s non-binding Parliamentary resolution, President Trump threatened to impose with tough economic sanctions if American troops are forced to leave. He asked Baghdad to cough up billions of dollars that went into building of robust military bases in their country.

Iran designates US Military forces as terrorists

On the other hand, Iran announced that it would no longer abide by restrictions on Uranium enrichment imposed by the 2015 nuclear deal. Keeping its option, it agreed to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials but rejected requests from France, Britain and Germany to honour nuclear deal.

Iran parliament approved a bill designating all American military forces as terrorists. It approved $220 million assistance to Quds force to seek vengeance for the death of Soleimani. The threat of cultural bombing united Iranians lie never before. While the entire populace of Iran hasn’t revered Soleimani as a cult figure, American threat stirred passions and as a mark of solidarity larger crowds turned up the final journey of Soleimani. Huge turnout of sea of humanity and their emotional outburst indeed propelled the Iranian establishment to prop up strong retributive posturing.  Close on heels, over 60 people died and 200 injured during a stampede in Soleimani’s funeral process in Iran.

War of words escalated after Quds force new commander Ghaani and Hezbollah secretary Nasrallah promised of proportionate attacks against American forces. Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened to turn Israeli cities Haifa and Tel Aviv into dust if America attacks Iran. In an overdrive to secure its assets and forces from Iranian missile attacks, America deployed extra troops to the region and even stationed air craft carriers, ballistic missiles to the Diego Garcia base.

Iran’s Missile attacks on American bases

Hours before final burial of Soleimani, vowing a crushing revenge Iran fired 22 ballistic missiles at American bases Ain al-Asad in Western Iraq and Erbil. Iraqi state broadcast claimed that the attacks killed 80 American “terrorists”. Supreme Commander Khomeini called it a slap on the face of America and demanded complete withdrawal of US troops from the region. After the attacks, Zavad Zarif, Iraqi foreign minister tweeted, “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self defense under the article 51 of UN charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched. We don’t seek escalation of war but will defend ourselves against any aggression”.

Before Iran hit the US targets in Iraq, Tehran informed Iraq, Lithuania, Finland of impending attacks. Siren from the advanced warning systems believed to have alerted US soldiers giving them enough time to escape to safe shelters. As a result, not a single casualty was reported so far. President Trump’s tweet of “All is Well” summed up the outcome.

Around the same time, a Ukrainian air lines Boeing 737 with 177 passengers and crew on broad crashed near Imam Khomeini airport. Initial reports indicate that plane plunged to ground as a huge ball of fire. The deceased includes 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainians, 10 Swedes, 4 Germans 3 Britons, and 3 Afghans. Hours after the crash Ukrainian embassy indicated that engine failure caused the plane crash. Even Iran quickly concluded that a technical failure resulted in a crash and refused to hand over the black box to American company Boeing. Much to the consternation of Iran, Ukrainian Airlines dismissed Embassy’s reports as unofficial. Though some agencies attributed the crash to Boeing’s disastrous recent record on safety with its planes, but Iran’s refusal to cede the black box and pictures of the plane wreckage are now pointing to a plausible missile attack by Iran. While the international community engrossed by developments in the Middle East side-lined the plane crash, countries of the deceased will now pull up Iran for this blatant act of terrorism (if any). Call it a stroke of bad coincidences, hours after the missile attacks two earthquakes of magnitude 4.9 and 4.5 in a span of 30 minutes struck the region close to the nuclear power plant in Bushehr province of Iran raising more suspicions about Tehran’s nuclear activities.

As tensions continued to escalate after the attacks and counter attacks, World has been on the edge. Interestingly important geopolitical players have stepped in to consolidate support, deescalate and to reassure their allies in the region. After the calls for evacuation of American troops gained strength, China dispatched its ambassador, Zhang Tao offering military assistance to Iraq. Amidst the mayhem, Russian President Putin made an unannounced visit to Syria with reports of Bashar al-Assad’s levitation to Tehran gaining ground. Russian President landed in Syria to cobble up support. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who was supposed to visit Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman to explain them about Tokyo’s plans of deploying Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) forces to the region cancelled his visit hours after Iran’s attack on American bases. Leaders of Jordan, Oman and European countries called for de-escalation.

Iran seeks India’s moderation

Days before the arrival of Iranian Foreign Minister Zavad Zarif to India to speak at Raisina Dialogue, Iranian ambassador Ali Chegeni speaking to the reporters at the side lines of the condolence meeting organised by the embassy “welcomed India’s initiative to reduce tensions”. India which has close ties with the US and Iran adopted a rather cautious approach even at the height of escalating tensions in the Middle East. New Delhi has been closely watching the developments in the region where it has strategic interests. After the eruption of tensions, Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar Subramanian spoke to his counterpart and Prime Minister Modi discussed about “regional security matters” with President Trump. Describing India, as a good friend, Chegeni said, “India plays a very good role in peace in the World. India belongs to this region. We welcome initiatives from all countries, especially India as good friend for us, to not allow escalation”. He reiterated that Iran is not seeking war, aspires to have peace and prosperity and welcomed India’s initiative to bring peace and prosperity for entire World. Clearly, India which is among the very few countries to have good relations with both Iran and the US will not favour any side. Given its strong economic, social, religious and cultural linkages with the region, India will not allow tensions to escalate. Post sanctions regime, India was forced to zero its oil imports from Iran. This took a toll on the bilateral ties. By seeking India’s initiation, Iran has vanquished apprehensions of doubting Buddha’s regarding the completion and operationalisation of Chabahar port. Ever since Iranian-US relations soured, every rising threat and escalation involving Iran posed fresh hurdles in obtaining finances from international banks for the port construction.  In 2016, India signed trilateral transit agreement with Iran and Afghanistan to develop an alternative connectivity network. Appreciating Indian efforts in augmenting Afghanistan’s economic interests, despite its animosity towards Iran, it welcomed the development of Chabahar port, located in the Sistan-Baluchistan province. US even exempted the port related activities from the sanctions.

But America’s oral assurance, failed to assuage fears of international financiers. Days ahead of Soleimani’s killing, at the second 2+2 Indo-US Ministerial Dialogue, India obtained a written assurance from US stating that Chabahar is exempt from the sanctions list to accelerate its operationalisation. Sanctions fear stalled the construction of Chabahar port and transactions for the past eight months. Following the written assurance, India managed to woo investors and work just began. But the fresh round of escalations has scared global investors who are now assessing the economic viability of the project. After the Soleimani episode, India has again reached out to Iran and expressed its interest to expedite Chabahar project which has been cornerstone of its connectivity network to Central Asia and Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan. As of now, India hasn’t responded to Iranian envoy’s message. Involvement in Middle East is going to be a tight diplomatic walk necessitating vigorous diplomacy. Tehran’s invitation to be on board is an endorsement of India’s rising global stature.

In the meanwhile, easing tensions temporarily, Trump assured Iran of no further US military strikes but announced fresh sanctions.

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World the cusp of new technological revolution

It is no exaggeration to say that technology has changed our lives like never before. It has revolutionised modern living. As we step usher into yet another new decade of 21^st century, more than ever the world is seeking the refuge of science and technology to tackle the daunting challenges. Advances in science and technology offers the promise of providing solutions to the real-world problems. The phenomenal transformation in general living conditions with the advent of technology in modern times is seamless.

Triggering the spark of innovation, technology seeded the development of gadgets which changed the way we communicate, access information, voice our opinions, conduct business, shop for goods and services. It radically transformed television viewing experiences and added a new realm to the entertainment industry. Technology is enriching and enhancing our lives like never before. Unlike in the past people are no longer sceptical about embracing new technology. They are technologically savvy. By consciously welcoming and adopting new technologies current generation is heralding innovation. This wider acceptance is paving way for faster evolution of technology.

With time, the creation of these technological tools has become the most profitable and wealthiest of ventures. The accelerating pace of technology has substantially increased ease of doing business and generated immense business opportunities. Enthused by a perceptible change brought about by new technologies, venture capitalists and prospective businesses are investing billions into companies indulging in development of cutting-edge technologies. Marshalling the World into the “4^th Industrial Revolution”, the next decade will portend the advent of “Frontier Technologies or deep tech” which includes- Artificial intelligence or machine learning, Robotics, Computational biology, Extended Reality (XR), Personalised and predictive medicine, quantum computing, space technology, advanced manufacturing using 3-D printing  and block chain technology.

Steadily Artificial Intelligence (AI) is evolving as a useful replacement in service sector. It is now increasingly employed for improving customer experience and streamlining business activities. Last year, China has reportedly rolled out cyber courts with AI judges and verdicts being delivered on chat apps. The pilot program is now closely monitored for its largescale implementation. Under the banner of digitisation of its sprawling judicial system China is putting cyber technologies to use. Since the launch of the mobile courts in March 2019, reportedly three million legal cases and judicial procedures were handled by these cyber courts. India which is grappling under the burden of judicial pendency can certainly take a leaf out of Chinese book.

Similarly, AI-monitored autonomous driving is another important aspect which is being increasingly experimented in developed countries. Google sister company Waymo has successfully completed the trial of autonomous taxis in California last year. While there might be glitches in the adoption of autonomous vehicles in public transport, they can be extremely beneficial in shipping and truck industry.

Various health parameters which are collected by the smart phones and other wearable devices are now used to diagnose ailments if any. This health data is becoming an important primer for the popular stream of personalised medicine. Instead of one size fits all approach, personalised and predictive medicine is evolving as an effective method to address specific disease conditions. Another important outcome of the deep technologies has been the 3-D organ printing. 3-D bioprinting of tissues and organs for transplanting has become heart and soul of the regenerative medicine. While the 3-D bioprinting is in formative stages of development for functional organs, it is successfully developed for skin and bones. Recently San Diego based Organovo, successfully implanted 3-D prints of human liver tissue patches in mice.

Already computational biology with its immense potential to study biological, ecological, behavioural and social systems through application of data-analytics, theoretical methods, mathematical modelling and computational simulation techniques have marvelled the world with the power of the interdisciplinary integration of knowledge systems. New technological advances will perceptibly enhance our understanding of the biological systems. Indeed, evolving technology will bolster the allied fields of computational biology like applied mathematics, statistics, biochemistry, biophysics, molecular biology, genetics and genomics. Advancements in computational power will concomitantly help in data management, imaging & sensing technologies and material sciences as well.

Latest devices endowed with computer vision capable of facial or image recognition are changing the contours of surveillance and monitoring. Google’s Image search is an offshoot of this technology. Gadgets equipped with computer vision are now extensively used by aviation sector. Dubai and Changi Airport which experience heavy footfall of passengers have opened cutting edge digital terminal for automatic check-in through facial scanning. Akin to the accessing smart phones through facial recognition, these technologies are now put to use to monitor crowds, identify criminals in some countries. Though it has potential danger of eroding privacy, given its inherent facial recognition capabilities law and order maintenance agencies are milling the large-scale use of these technologies to identify criminal elements.

With its immersive digital experience and capacities to create surreal experiences, virtual, augmented and mixed reality is taking the world by a storm. This computer-generated virtual world had added a new dimension to the entertainment industry. Virtual Reality (VR) which has been a part of infotainment and high-end videogames is now being put to business use as well. VR is used for training and simulation offering new ways to interact with customers. VR together with block chain technology are offering fascinating possibilities. Block-Chain is a ledger of transactions secured due to its encrypted and decentralised nature. Employing the block chain technology, Facebook planned to launch crypto currency Libra. Though it couldn’t take off, the possibilities offered by the rising tide of improvised technologies is vast.

Unfortunately, despite its huge demographic dividend and sizeable technology savvy enthusiasts, India hasn’t been a cradle of technological development. While India has firmly established itself as a prominent player in space technology through commercial satellite launching, it is not home to the big technological ventures as yet. Booming technology startups are offering a new hope.

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Tensions escalate in Middle East after the assassination of Qasem Soleimani

With the assassination of the Commander of the Iran’s paramilitary forces, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani in air strikes at the Baghdad airport fresh crisis erupted in the Middle East. Since 1998 Soleimani has been in charge of the elite Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) which carries out its operations through a network of terrorist organisations, militias and proxies to advance Tehran’s interests across the World. Quds force works under the close watch of the Supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and Soleimani who directly reports to him has been a dominant actor in Iran’s foreign policy. Soleimani is the force behind expanding Iran’s influence across various countries in the region and in strengthening the Shia militia is considered a cult figure in Iran.

Soleimani strengthened Iran’s ties with Hezbollah in Lebanon. In an interview to Iranian State TV broadcast, in October 2019, Soleimani recounted his experiences and the assistance offered to the Hezbollah during the 34-day Israel-Lebanon war of 2006. He spoke about Israel’s missed assassination bid during his attempt to escape from Lebanon. Iran broadcasted the interview days after it has carried out a photo of General Secretary of Hezbollah, General Hassan Nasrallah seated next to Khamenei and Soleimani. Soleimani has been instrumental in increasing Iran’s clout in Syria, Iran and Yemen and stalling the expansion of ISIS. Broaching about the influence of Soleimani, US Gen David Petraeus recounted having received a message from Soleimani saying, “Gen. Petraeus, you should know that I, Qassem Soleimani control the policy for Iran with respect to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Afghanistan”.

Soleimani is known for carrying out covert operations, ransom killings, assassinations, training in guerrilla warfare. Indeed, The US and the UN put him on the sanctions list in 2007. Iran’s conventional army is very weak. It relies on the paramilitary Quds’ Force to carry out Tehran’s nefarious agenda. The fall of Saddam regime in Iraq, post the US invasion left a power vacuum in the country. Iran used this opportunity to spread its wings, extending support to Shia groups, installed a pro-Iranian regime. Offering assistance to Iraqi forces to take on the IS, Quds forces established bases in Iraq and used them to relay supplies and weapons to Syria. Soleimani steadily bolstered Iran’s influence in the region. Quds Force has been responsible for arming the Pro-Iranian forces in Iraq leading to the death of over 200 American personnel.  Unilateral pull out from the nuclear deal and concomitant crippling sanctions on Iranian oil exports, have critically damaged US-Iran bilateral ties. Holding the Quds force responsible for the death of American soldiers, the US designated IRGC as a terrorist organisation in April 2019. IRGC which is the arm of the state became the first state actor to be proscribed by the US. Designation of IRGC as Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO) irrevocably damaged bilateral ties.

Underscoring the enormity of Soleimani’s assassination, Yashar Ali, Iranian Journalist tweeted, “But killing of Soleimani is not like killing the head of terrorist organisation and a head of state. You have to treat it as such and the US has not DIRECTLY engaged in assassinations of this level in decades.” His assassination has taken the World by surprise. Announcing three-day mourning on the death of 62- year old, Soleimani, Khomeini called him as “living martyr of the revolution” and vowed “harsh retaliation”.  Iranian Foreign Minister Javed Zaraf tweeted, “the US bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism”. The strikes which claimed seven lives included, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of Iran-backed militia, Popular Mobilization Forces.

Escalation of tensions have been in the offing. On December 27^th pro-Iranian Iraqi militia launched a rocket attack on the US base in Iraq killing an American contractor. In retaliation, the US struck launched air strikes in Iraq and Syria killing 25 Iran-backed militia in Iraq, Kataeb Hezbollah operatives. Angered by American attacks, Iran backed militia vandalised American embassy in Baghdad causing extensive damage to the reception area. In the aftermath of assault on US Embassy, Defence secretary Mark Esper warned that the US “will take pre-emptive action”. These attacks and counter assaults brought both nations to the brink of a major conflict. Taking to Twitter President Trump strongly criticised Iran’s orchestrated attacks. With immediate effect, he ordered stationing of US troops in Kuwait to beef up security of its embassy and personnel in Baghdad. But surprise drone attacks on Soleimani was final nail in the coffin.

Killing of an American has triggered this event, America didn’t respond to tankers attacks of its allies in the Persian Gulf. America exercised restraint even after Iran reportedly shot down its drone and to assaults on the Saudi oil installations. But deployed extra troops to Saudi. By penetrating the Iran’s intelligence network and executing a high-profile assassination, the US has spooked Iran. Befitting of a dominant power, Pentagon issued a statement, “At the direction of the President, the US military has taken the defense action to protect the US personnel abroad by killing Qasem Soleimani” owning the attack. By eliminating Soleimani, America busted the halo of invincibility of Iran’s work horse, who carried out extraterritorial, clandestine operations.

Soleimani’s loss will be a grave setback to Iran. Over the years Soleimani built a vast network of Shia militia which included Houthis in the Yemen and ratcheted up ties with Hamas, Islamic Jihadists in Gaza strip & West Bank. Through a formidable web of proxies, Iran asserted its dominance despite economic doldrums and sanctions. While Iran announced Soleimani’s replacement his deputy, Esmail Ghaani as the new commander concerns of the US penetration of Tehran intelligence network will continue to haunt them. Khameneni who is facing the double whammy of sinking economy and burgeoning dissent has promised a revenge. But Iran which is facing bleak economic fortunes will not go for all out direct war with the US. Employing asymmetric warfare, Iran will continue to extract its pound of flesh. America will have to bear the brunt of targeted attacks on its citizens, personnel, embassies, allies and its partners in the region.

Known for using the war rhetoric to win elections, timing of President Trump’s decision is raising curious doubts. Past two American establishments have watched the destabilisation caused by the Iranian proxy network propped up by Soleimani in the region. Both President Bush and President Obama were presented the options for targeting Soleimani but they refused to bite the bullet. Critics are quick to point that Trump’s decision to strike Soleimani is an attempt to deflect attention from (meaningless) impeachment trials. America deep state is known for its penchant to periodically employ military might to assert control. Clearly, Trump might be playing to the gallery to strengthen his re-election bid.

Be whatever may, despite his incoherent foreign policy decisions, Trump’s might leave behind a rich anti-terrorism legacy. With Trump at the helm of affairs, American forces eliminated Hamza bin Laden, putative head of Al-Qaeda, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi leader of IS and now Soleimani, a dreaded commander who was responsible for deaths of thousands of people in the Middle East.

Assassinations have the history of stoking conflicts and Soleimani’s killing may be no different. It has triggered panic responses. Since his killing, World War III is trending on social media. While the US-Iran face off will be inevitable, it will not descend into a full-blown war. Iran will build pressure on Iraqi politicians to force US to evacuate its embassy and bases. American retreat from the region will mark revival of the dangerous radical ideologies and may mark the resurgence of forces like IS, Al-Nusra and others. Iraq, a client state of Iran which has turned into theatre of new conflict between Iran and the US is accusing the US of violating its sovereignty. With things moving thick and fast, escalations are bound to rise. Oil prices surged by 4%.

American allies, the EU, the UN, Russia China and India called for de-escalation. India which has strategic ties with both the US and Iran is caught in a precarious situation. Tensions in the Middle East will have direct impact on the safety of 80 lakh Indian Diaspora in the region, who are source of $40 billion remittances. Any conflict in the region which threaten the operations of the strategic Chabahar port in Iran. Surge in global crude prices due to prolonged conflicts might push India down an inflationary spiral and increase country’s fiscal deficit. India has to do a tight balancing act to foster its interests in the region. Simultaneously, America’s preoccupation with the Middle East might take its attention from the strategically important Indo-Pacific region.

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