With every passing day the number of infections
and deaths due to the novel Corona Virus (nCV) are steadily mounting. At the
time of writing, the official reported infections reached 5974 and killed 132
people in China.
On December 31st WHO alerted the
World of the growing number of severe pneumonia cases in Wuhan City, Hubei
province. By January 7th Chinese authorities reported that the
infection is caused by Corona virus which belongs to the family of SARS (Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) and
called it nCov-2019 (1). SARS caused major health emergency in China in Nov
2012-March 2013 killing 800 people across the World and entailing financial
losses worth $50 billion. nCoV and SARS have emanated from China. Logically,
people have started drawing parallels between the two. The mortality rate of
SARS has been 15% as opposed to less than 3% of nCoV, thus far. Going by these
numbers some people have downplayed the nCoV threat. Given the vast spread of
nCoV and number of infections crossing SARS, it is causing intense concern. Baring
Africa and South America the virus has now spread to all continents.
Epidemiological investigations of Chinese
researchers revealed that nCoV has “close range droplet transmission”. Meaning,
the virus spreads through the sneezing or coughing of the infected person to anyone
who comes in contact indicating that nCoV has high pandemic risk. Also, SARS
with incubation period of 2-7 days wasn’t contagious when someone had no
symptoms, while nCoV with an incubation period of 10-14 days don’t show
symptoms but remains contagious. It means the patient would serve as a hidden
carrier. Implying that rigorous control and prevention strategies can curtail
spread of the virus shifting. As a result, the onus is now on the public health
care agencies to curb the rapid transmission.
Consequently, China imposed lock down on Wuhan
city and 12 other cities, identified as the epicentre of infection. Imposed ban
on wild life trade as Wuhan seafood and animal market was believed to have been
the starting point of infection. But even before lockdown, several people left
the city on the eve of Lunar New Year increasing the prospect of spread of
infection. Intriguingly, despite the impending pandemic threat, WHO cautioned
of high alert and refrained from declaring it as a health emergency. WHO’s
callous approach has only strengthened of popular perception of China high-level
penetration of UN agencies and its growing influence in the intergovernmental
organisations. This inadvertently brought to fore appointment of President Xi’s
wife Peng Liyuan as WHO good will ambassador for tuberculosis and HIV in 2011 and
WHO rescinding invitation to Taiwan for the World Health Assembly (WHA) in
2018. The island attended WHA meet from 2009 and 2016 when the Taiwanese regime
during that period kow-towed to mainland China.
While the Tsai-Ing who challenged the Beijing’s authority was denied a
invitation at the World forum.
WHO defended its position stating that through
unprecedented quarantining of 20 million people China has contained spread of
virus. It also indicated that so far beyond China, there were no reports of
human to human spread. As the number of infections, increased, WHO designated
Corona virus as “public health emergency of international concern” and
stopped short of saying it as global emergency which would trigger a concerted
global action. People severely criticised WHO’s cautious approach which reminded
them of its tepid response towards Ebola outbreak in 2014 which claimed 11,300
lives by the time it ended in 2016 (2).
Sharing his concerns about the origins of nCoV,
with The Washington Post, an Israeli biowarfare analyst, Dany Shahom said the virus
might have originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a laboratory
working on deadly viruses (3). China is known to be working on the Biological
Weapons under dual military-civilian program. While the institute is under
Chinese Academy of Sciences, a unit, Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory at the
institute engaged in research in Ebola, Nipah and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic
fever viruses is known to have links with PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) and BW
(Biological Weapons)-related elements within Chinese defence establishment. It no
secret that there exists no demarcation between the military and civilian
institutions in China, research involving dangerous pathogens have imbued
geopolitical implications as well. This observation will raise hackles in
diplomatic circles as well.
Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory was
certified a BSL-4 (Bio Safety Laboratory) a biocontainment of highest safety
capable of handling level 4 pathogens in January 2017. Chinese Academy of
Sciences approved the construction of the lab in 2003. In the aftermath of the
SARS infection, underscoring the importance of tackling any health emergence
with the assistance from France, Beijing managed to finish the construction by
2015. Scientists trained in Lyon for years to work on these organisms. Since
2017, the lab started working on BSL-3 organisms and steadily expanded it to
BSL-4 research on primates which are abundant in China. Japan has been the
first Asian country to have biocontainment laboratory in 1981. Later Taiwan
built two such laboratories. Despite concerns of gigantic proportions on
humanity from virulent pathogens, Western countries like the US and France are
racing to build more laboratories. China which regards these kinds of
developments as badge of honour, not be left behind considered BSL-4 facility
as a status symbol.
Western scientists have expressed worries about
Chinese lab since SARS has escaped containment lab in Beijing multiple times.
China’s record in handling these zoonotic virus (virus which spread from
animals to humans) has been poor. Mincing no words, Tim Trevan founder of
CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland told Nature
that “an open culture is important for maintaining BSL-4 containment labs”
(4). Transparency and openness in sharing information are crucial. These
aspects are lacking in China. Further the regulations in the use of animal for
testing these pathogens are less stringent. Instead of working towards bringing
more transparency, stringency in use of primates for experiments and openness
in science, China is expanding the network. It has built such dual facility
containment labs in Harbin, Beijing, Kunming and awaiting accreditation. Wuhan
Biosafety Laboratory is just 20 miles from the Wuhan seafood markets and the
scientific community believes that the virus must have mutated, leaked out of
the lab and through animal-human contact became epicentre of the virus. China’s
poor compliance record in toxin research and development is only adding more
weight to such speculations. While the Chinese propaganda machinery is trying
to present the outbreak of the contagion as a western ploy, there are no takers
for this theory.
While the World is in awe at the scale and speed
Chinese government is mobilising resources to spread the contagion, 56 million
Chinese who are under lockdown are now complaining about the restrictions.
Wuhan’s health system is showing cracks. The Mayor is blaming Beijing for
downplaying the threat and censoring information. Hospitals are running out of
supplies. The façade of the party’s infallibility and efficiency to handle any
situation is now slowly falling apart.
Cracks within the system are showing up. People are questioning the omnipotence
of the government. Given China’s opaque style of functioning, experts are
suspecting underreporting. Countries are now evacuating their citizens due to
major health risks. Neighbouring country (read as Malaysia) is taking a dig at
the Chinese diverse food habits as well.
China disclosed about SARS three months after
its outbreak. People are suspecting similar coverup even now. SARS hit China
when its economy is at its peak and hence the country bounced back to normalcy
without a hitch. Chinese economy is currently going through a slowdown. The
restrictions on travel and trade together with lockdown and suspension of
regular activity will have a major toll on economy. Oil prices fell due to a
dip in demand. Stock markets across the globe are witnessing a slump. Tourism
has plummeted. China accounts for one third of the global trade and the
extension of the Lunar New Year Holidays have bolstered fears of the Corona
epidemic. The tremors of trade slump are now felt by global markets.
Scientists in Hongkong are reported to have
isolated the virus and developed a vaccine (5). But testing in animals is going
to take time. Australian scientists have recreated the virus. This can help in
early diagnosis and vaccine development (6). US and China have intensified their
efforts as well. Much awaited Sino-US trade deal is believed to offered a
much-needed boost to the Chinese economy. But the Corona virus outbreak has not
only hit the economy, it exposed the fissures in Chinese governance and the
invincibility of Xi. Above all, now Beijing’s biowarfare program is under
scrutiny as well.
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