In the aftermath of assassination
of Iranian Commander Qasem Soleimani, amidst unprecedented geopolitical
churning in the Middle East, things are moving thick and fast. The scale of
activity and the casualties are now grabbing the headlines. A day after killing
of Soleimani, six people were reportedly killed in an air strike on a convoy
carrying Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) pro-Iranian militia in North Baghdad.
This was followed by two rocket attacks in Green Zone of Baghdad towards US
Embassy. Ketaib Hezbollah widened attacks and hurled motor shells at US
Embassy. Incidentally on the same day al-Shahbaab terror operatives attacked US
air base in Kenya killing an American soldier and two US contractors. Shia
militia intensified attacks on American assets.
Stirring this geopolitical
cauldron, Trump warned of cultural bombing if Iran continues to attack American
personnel or assets. He indicated that
52 cultural sites are identified for this purpose, the number of Americans held
hostage by Iran during the 1979 revolution. This triggered an international
debate and forced Trump to tone down his rhetoric. Softening the stance, State
secretary Pompeo initiated talks with diplomats of various countries and
apprised them of the situation in Middle East.
Iraqi Wrath
But emotions are running high in
both Iran and Iraq. As expected, Iran is irrevocably miffed by the killing of
the second in the order of power, Soleimani. Iraq is interminably angered by
the death of the deputy commander of PMU Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. PMU which
fought with Al-Qaeda and ISIS is a legitimate force. Deeming the assassination
of a commander in airstrike by America as a violation of an agreement by
occupational forces, Iraq fired first salvo. Iraq which has become theatre of
current conflict, drummed up its protest against America. In an extraordinary
parliamentary session, Iraq passed a resolution demanding the expulsion of
foreign troops. Parliament stated that with the defeat of IS in 2017, the
purpose of stationing of international coalition has been accomplished. Hence
the 5200 American troops must be ordered to leave Iraq. It called the end of
2014 resolution that welcomed coalition troops into the country. But the
radical groups felt that Iraqi government’s rather timid response for the
violation of sovereignty and escalation was too little.
Interestingly, not everyone was
really dismayed by the killing of Soleimani and Iraqi commander. Indeed, people
cheered and danced on roads of Baghdad when the first reports filtered in. Kurds
and Sunnis who suffered at the hands of dominant Shia militia in Iraq desired American
presence. Most Iraqi’s detested growing Iranian influence in the region and
huge protests in the past of couple months symbolised Iraqis growing distrust
and dissent towards the Pro-Iranian Shia political establishment. But the
high-profile assassinations of two prominent Shia militia commanders brought
Iran and Iraq together, boosting Shia consolidation and eventually pushing Iraq
into Iran’s embrace.
In response to the Iraq’s non-binding
Parliamentary resolution, President Trump threatened to impose with tough economic
sanctions if American troops are forced to leave. He asked Baghdad to cough up
billions of dollars that went into building of robust military bases in their
country.
Iran designates US Military forces
as terrorists
On the other hand, Iran announced
that it would no longer abide by restrictions on Uranium enrichment imposed by
the 2015 nuclear deal. Keeping its option, it agreed to cooperate with the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials but rejected requests from
France, Britain and Germany to honour nuclear deal.
Iran parliament approved a bill
designating all American military forces as terrorists. It approved $220
million assistance to Quds force to seek vengeance for the death of Soleimani.
The threat of cultural bombing united Iranians lie never before. While the
entire populace of Iran hasn’t revered Soleimani as a cult figure, American
threat stirred passions and as a mark of solidarity larger crowds turned up the
final journey of Soleimani. Huge turnout of sea of humanity and their emotional
outburst indeed propelled the Iranian establishment to prop up strong
retributive posturing. Close on heels,
over 60 people died and 200 injured during a stampede in Soleimani’s funeral
process in Iran.
War of words escalated after Quds
force new commander Ghaani and Hezbollah secretary Nasrallah promised of proportionate
attacks against American forces. Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened to
turn Israeli cities Haifa and Tel Aviv into dust if America attacks Iran. In an
overdrive to secure its assets and forces from Iranian missile attacks, America
deployed extra troops to the region and even stationed air craft carriers,
ballistic missiles to the Diego Garcia base.
Iran’s Missile attacks on American
bases
Hours before final burial of
Soleimani, vowing a crushing revenge Iran fired 22 ballistic missiles at American
bases Ain al-Asad in Western Iraq and Erbil. Iraqi state broadcast claimed that
the attacks killed 80 American “terrorists”. Supreme Commander Khomeini called
it a slap on the face of America and demanded complete withdrawal of US troops
from the region. After the attacks, Zavad Zarif, Iraqi foreign minister
tweeted, “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self defense
under the article 51 of UN charter targeting base from which cowardly armed
attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched. We don’t seek
escalation of war but will defend ourselves against any aggression”.
Before Iran hit the US targets in
Iraq, Tehran informed Iraq, Lithuania, Finland of impending attacks. Siren from
the advanced warning systems believed to have alerted US soldiers giving them
enough time to escape to safe shelters. As a result, not a single casualty was
reported so far. President Trump’s tweet of “All is Well” summed up the outcome.
Around the same time, a Ukrainian
air lines Boeing 737 with 177 passengers and crew on broad crashed near Imam
Khomeini airport. Initial reports indicate that plane plunged to ground as a
huge ball of fire. The deceased includes 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11
Ukrainians, 10 Swedes, 4 Germans 3 Britons, and 3 Afghans. Hours after the
crash Ukrainian embassy indicated that engine failure caused the plane crash. Even
Iran quickly concluded that a technical failure resulted in a crash and refused
to hand over the black box to American company Boeing. Much to the
consternation of Iran, Ukrainian Airlines dismissed Embassy’s reports as unofficial.
Though some agencies attributed the crash to Boeing’s disastrous recent record
on safety with its planes, but Iran’s refusal to cede the black box and
pictures of the plane wreckage are now pointing to a plausible missile attack
by Iran. While the international community engrossed by developments in the
Middle East side-lined the plane crash, countries of the deceased will now pull
up Iran for this blatant act of terrorism (if any). Call it a stroke of bad
coincidences, hours after the missile attacks two earthquakes of magnitude 4.9
and 4.5 in a span of 30 minutes struck the region close to the nuclear power
plant in Bushehr province of Iran raising more suspicions about Tehran’s nuclear
activities.
As tensions continued to escalate
after the attacks and counter attacks, World has been on the edge.
Interestingly important geopolitical players have stepped in to consolidate
support, deescalate and to reassure their allies in the region. After the calls
for evacuation of American troops gained strength, China dispatched its
ambassador, Zhang Tao offering military assistance to Iraq. Amidst the mayhem,
Russian President Putin made an unannounced visit to Syria with reports of Bashar
al-Assad’s levitation to Tehran gaining ground. Russian President landed in
Syria to cobble up support. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who was supposed
to visit Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman to explain them about Tokyo’s plans of
deploying Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) forces to the region cancelled
his visit hours after Iran’s attack on American bases. Leaders of Jordan, Oman
and European countries called for de-escalation.
Iran seeks India’s moderation
Days before the arrival of Iranian
Foreign Minister Zavad Zarif to India to speak at Raisina Dialogue, Iranian
ambassador Ali Chegeni speaking to the reporters at the side lines of the
condolence meeting organised by the embassy “welcomed India’s initiative to
reduce tensions”. India which has close ties with the US and Iran adopted a
rather cautious approach even at the height of escalating tensions in the
Middle East. New Delhi has been closely watching the developments in the region
where it has strategic interests. After the eruption of tensions, Indian
Foreign Minister Jaishankar Subramanian spoke to his counterpart and Prime
Minister Modi discussed about “regional security matters” with President Trump.
Describing India, as a good friend, Chegeni said, “India plays a very good
role in peace in the World. India belongs to this region. We welcome
initiatives from all countries, especially India as good friend for us, to not
allow escalation”. He reiterated that Iran is not seeking war, aspires to
have peace and prosperity and welcomed India’s initiative to bring peace and
prosperity for entire World. Clearly, India which is among the very few
countries to have good relations with both Iran and the US will not favour any
side. Given its strong economic, social, religious and cultural linkages with the
region, India will not allow tensions to escalate. Post sanctions regime, India
was forced to zero its oil imports from Iran. This took a toll on the bilateral
ties. By seeking India’s initiation, Iran has vanquished apprehensions of
doubting Buddha’s regarding the completion and operationalisation of Chabahar
port. Ever since Iranian-US relations soured, every rising threat and
escalation involving Iran posed fresh hurdles in obtaining finances from
international banks for the port construction. In 2016, India signed trilateral transit
agreement with Iran and Afghanistan to develop an alternative connectivity
network. Appreciating Indian efforts in augmenting Afghanistan’s economic
interests, despite its animosity towards Iran, it welcomed the development of
Chabahar port, located in the Sistan-Baluchistan province. US even exempted the
port related activities from the sanctions.
But America’s oral assurance,
failed to assuage fears of international financiers. Days ahead of Soleimani’s
killing, at the second 2+2 Indo-US Ministerial Dialogue, India obtained a
written assurance from US stating that Chabahar is exempt from the sanctions
list to accelerate its operationalisation. Sanctions fear stalled the
construction of Chabahar port and transactions for the past eight months.
Following the written assurance, India managed to woo investors and work just
began. But the fresh round of escalations has scared global investors who are
now assessing the economic viability of the project. After the Soleimani episode,
India has again reached out to Iran and expressed its interest to expedite
Chabahar project which has been cornerstone of its connectivity network to
Central Asia and Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan. As of now, India hasn’t
responded to Iranian envoy’s message. Involvement in Middle East is going to be
a tight diplomatic walk necessitating vigorous diplomacy. Tehran’s invitation
to be on board is an endorsement of India’s rising global stature.
In the meanwhile, easing tensions
temporarily, Trump assured Iran of no further US military strikes but announced
fresh sanctions.
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