Driven by Caliphate ambitions and Hegemonic Expansionism, Erdogan is the New Disrupter-in-Chief of the Region

 

Global world order is experiencing a geopolitical churn and an ongoing face-off between the NATO allies in East Mediterranean Sea aptly portrays this new reality. On August 12^th Turkish frigate collided with Greece ship escalating the tensions in the region. While Turkey refused to acknowledge the damage suffered by its vessel, the incident led to further fortification of the region with aerial and maritime forces. Denouncing a maritime demarcation agreement between Greece and Egypt a day ahead of the scheduled negotiations with Turkey flared up tensions in the region. Ostensibly, the dispute has been about Turkey exploring the contested waters for gas deposits.

As per 2010, US Geological survey study, an estimated 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 122 trillion cubic feet of gas deposits can be recovered from the Levant basin of East Mediterranean Sea¹. Since then countries in the region indulged in a mad rush for exploring the energy deposits in collaboration with international oil companies. Soon, Israel discovered a gas reserve, Leviathan and Tamar, Italian Oil giant Eni discovered Zohr natural gas deposits off Egypt coast and Cyprus found oil fields, Aphrodite, Glacus and Calypso. Zohr and Leviathan met the domestic market demands and become focal points of cooperation. Forewarned of a potential conflict in the aftermath of exploration expeditions Greece, Egypt, Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA) and Israel signed maritime deal demarcating their EEZs (Exclusive Economic Zone). But Turkey refused to accept GCA’s claims. In 1974 Turkey intervened in Greek Cypriot coup in Northern Cyprus and eventually evicted the Greek Cypriots. Soon Turkish Cypriots migrated to the region and established their claims over the region and called it Turkish Republic of Norther Cyprus (TRNC) by 1983. Baring Turkey, no nation recognised this defacto state. In 2000s Turkey strongly opposed GCA’s attempts to licence the continental shelf for oil exploration and asked it to stop oil exploration until Cyprus issue is resolved. Ankara demanded a joint commission to manage the gas fields by respective states. But with no signs of ironing out differences and arriving at logical resolution of the dispute, GCA went ahead with its exploration plans.

In January Greece, Cyprus and Israel signed a deal to build a 1900km long undersea pipeline or EastMed pipeline bypassing Turkey intended to deliver 10billion cubic metres (bcm) natural gas per year to Europe via Italy. Turkey opposed the deal and suggested that there is no need for EastMed line as trans-Anatolian natural gas pipeline (TANAP) from Azerbaijan to Europe passing through Turkey already exists. TANAP strengthened Turkey’s role as the regional energy hub. Conceiving the EastMed Pipeline as Turko-sceptic, President Erdogan signed a deal with Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) demarcating the Libyan and Turkish continental shelves in the Mediterranean Sea. This region overlapped with the EEZs of Cyprus and Greece and spanned the path of the proposed EastMed pipeline. With this unilateral demarcation, Turkey plans to derail the proposed EastMed pipeline project.

On the other hand, to overcome the challenges of laying pipeline 3km below the surface and stretching over the quake prone region requiring prodigious investment of $6 to $7 billion, countries -Israel, Cyprus, Greece, Egypt, Jordan, Palestine formed the East Mediterranean Gas Forum. Since French and American companies have been major stake holders in the exploration process, France applied for membership and American for Observer status of this forum nick named as “OPEC of Mediterranean gas” with headquarters at Cairo.

Turkish-Libyan maritime accord has potentially the inflated the nascent rivalries. All the littorals in the Mediterranean opposed Turkey’s accord. EU which sides with Greece and Cyprus denounced it. Keen on retaining a key hold as an important transit and trading hub an isolated Turkey cemented its ties with GNA of Libya ². 

Greece and Turkey were at war over the uninhabited Aegan Island which was stalled by American intervention. Turkey’s ongoing feud over refugee issue is well known. Turkey’s relations with Israel soured after Turkey attempted to ship supplies breaking the blockade of Gaza in 2010. Erdogan strongly supported Muslim Brotherhood leader Egyptian President Morsi who was unceremoniously removed from power. Under Morsi, Egypt became a strategic ally of Turkey. With his accusations of an orchestrated coup, Erdogan riled the Arab countries.

Having miffed the US through the purchase of S-400 from Russia despite being a NATO member, Turkey has nowhere to go for support. US not only imposed sanctions on Turkey but stalled the purchase of F-35s. Qatar is the only ally Turkey can look for. But owing to Qatar Petroleum’s close links to Exxon Mobil which surveyed Cyprus shores, Qatar is now tied ³. Isolated Turkey is now adopting an assertive foreign policy. In December 2019, as an indirect approval of Cyprus explorations in East Mediterranean Sea, the US lifted arms embargo on Nicosia.

Promising military assistance to Islamic militia government headed by Fayez-al-Serraj in Libya who is in conflict with Libyan National Army (LNA) General Khalifa Haftar, Turkey clinched a maritime agreement with Libya. France which has oil interests in Libya and believes Haftar as a bulwark against the rising Islamic movement in Mali supported Haftar, aided by the UAE, Egypt, Jordan and Russia. Aside, serious objections over Erdogan’s growing authoritarianism, France is terribly miffed with Turkey for disrupting French, British and American forces from aiding the Kurdish forces is now playing an active role in regional conflict which threatens to upstage peace of North African as well. In January, Turkey deployed forces, Syrian mercenaries, jihadists, sent arms and ammunition to halt Haftar’s offensive. By halting the d Haftar’s aggression through timely intervention, Turkey irrevocably peeved all the countries backing him.

Turkey is highly dependent on oil imports and majorly imports oil from Russia, Iraq, US and Azerbaijan. But Turkey fell out with Russia over Syria. While Russia is still shipping oil to Turkey, now both parties are on the opposite sides in the Libyan issue. Turkey can get oil without Russian interference from Israel, Iraqi Kurdistan and Israel. Though Israel and Turkey have strong trading relations despite the rifts, a desperate Turkey has intensified its oil exploration exercise in the region. Cyprus, Greece, France, UAE, Egypt, Israel grouped into counter the aggression of Turkey.

Intensifying its operations under the guise of Seismic survey, Turkey disregarded international laws and infringed the EEZs of the countries. Turkish drilling ships made incursions into Cypriot waters and around Kastellorizo of Greece but close to Turkey. During the course of these explorations, Turkey’s Oruc Reis had a nasty collision with Greek frigate Limnos⁴. Greece took serious objections to Turkish incursions asserting that each of the small islands of Greece are entitled with their EEZ and Turkey a non-covenant of UNCLOS refused to accept the international conventions.

Turkey’s hegemonic operations and scramble for energy sources in the East Mediterranean is underscored by the doctrine of Blue Homeland or Mavi Vatan developed by Admiral Cem Gurdeniz in 2006 ⁵. Seeking to expand its Blue Water Navy, Turkey established naval bases in North Cyprus, Libya, Qatar, Somalia and Suakin of Sudan (to expand influence in the Red Sea). Together with Qatar, Turkey positioned itself in Horn of Africa as well to compete against UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Reprimanding Turkey’s drilling activities off Cyprus, EU imposed sanctions and withheld funds worth millions of Euros in February⁶. Now, to counter Turkish incursions, France has increased its naval presence in the region and held joint military exercises with Cyprus, Greece and Italy. While UAE sent four F-16s to participate in the exercises. In response Turkey has announced ‘live fire’ exercises in the East Mediterranean on September 1^st and 2^{nd 7}.  

Erdogan’s authoritarianism, brazen disregard for international rules, aggressive oil exploration pursuits in the region claimed by other nations bears close resemblances to the hegemonic expansionism of President Xi in South China Sea. Comparisons don’t end here. Reinventing its Revanchism, with plans of turning Turkey into a global power, Erdogan called for revision of 1923 Treaty of Lausanne on his first visit to Greece in 2017. Stating that some clauses in the Treaty are not clear and it must be revisited, Erdogan showed new maps on Turkish Television with borders of Turkey extending into areas which include present day Greece, Bulgaria, Armenia, Iraq and Syria. In 2019, Turkish Interior Minister claimed Northern Syria is part of Turkey and justified sending of Turkish troops into Syrian territory after American exit⁸. In collusion with Syrian National Army, Turkey is ruling parts of Syria where Lira is used for transactions.

As per latest reports, Turkey found 320 billion cubic meters of gas deposits in Black Sea which are available for use by 2023⁹. But experts believe that this amount is insignificant to mitigate Turkey’s economic woes. Hard hit by Covid, Turkey is struggling to manage balance of payments, plummeting Lira, high unemployment, slump in investments, tourism and declining growth. Domestic subjects and the opposition have been resentful of Turkey’s poor economic outlook.

To divert public attention, Erdogan prevailed on the conversion of Hagia Sophia into a Mosque. Originally a Byzantine Church built in 537 AD by Roman Emperor Justinian I, it was converted into a Mosque by the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II in 1453. In 1934 Turkey founder President Mustafa Kemal Ataturk who is secular by nature converted it into a Museum. This was declared as UNESCO heritage site in 1985. While Erdogan managed to calm public anger through Islamization appeal, he deeply offended the West and Greece. Not content with playing the Islam card to woo the domestic audience, Erdogan now converted a 4^th Chora Church or Church of Holy Saviour into mosque at the height of the geopolitical tensions in the region ¹⁰. Pandering to nationalists and conservatives, Erdogan has been slowly erasing all the reminiscences of the Byzantine past and altering churches into Mosques. Making up for the inept governance and rampant abuse of power, Erdogan is unleashing his Islamization project.

Since his take over as Prime Minister in 2002, Erdogan has steadily consolidated power and subsequently steered the country away from its foundational attributes of secularism and democracy. Usurping all powers, Erdogan crushed rebellion with iron hand. Driven by a preposterous agenda of establishing an Islamic Caliphate by 2023 to celebrate 100 years of becoming Republic, Erdogan launched revisionist plans.

Consumed by Islamist agenda, and determined to project himself as Messiah of Muslims across the World, Erdogan is lending support to Muslims in Kashmir, Palestine, Myanmar and Xinjiang. After the initial solidarity to Uighur Muslims he cautiously drifted away from the issue to avoid ruffling feathers with China. Erdogan ardently supported the radical Muslim Brotherhood (MB) during Arab Spring and cemented ties with MB leaders Sudanese dictator Omar Al-Bashir and Mohammed Morsi of Egypt. Sudan and Egypt remained closest allies of Turkey until the ouster of MB leaders. Now Erdogan is active votary of Kashmiris and supported Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir.

Through the think-tank GASAM Erdogan has been funding, aiding and patronising various terror groups-ISIS, AQ, Al Shabab, Hamas, Boko Haram, Hezbollah, Hayat Tahrir-Al-Sham ¹¹. The author wrote extensively about Erdogan’s Islamic project- https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/president-erdogan-raking-up-kashmir-issue-to-nurture-his-caliphate-ambitions-part-1 and https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/president-erdogan-raking-up-kashmir-issue-to-nurture-his-caliphate-ambitions-part-2. 

Turkish leadership has now intensified outreach with Indian Muslims. Indian intelligence agencies have warned of Turkey funded rampant radicalisation of Indian Muslims¹². With a single point agenda of claiming leadership of Muslim Ummah, Erdogan has stepped up indoctrination activities. Spear heading political Islam agenda, Turkey laid foundation for an alternative Muslim alliance against the Saudi Arabia at Malaysian Summit in 2019 with Pakistan, Iran, Malaysia and Qatar, united by common affections and enmities. Erdogan who is keen of presenting himself as the political, spiritual, religious leaders of global Muslim populace is stirring the Kashmir issue. Turkey’s obnoxious video is a testament to its insidious agenda ¹⁴.

Through his misguided priorities, policies, sectarianism, unnecessary interventions and engagements, Erdogan overstretched Turkey’s resources and picked up fights with traditional allies, friends and neighbours. To outshine the founder President Kemal Ataturk and go down in history as the most important leader of Turkey, Erdogan abused power and turned into an absolute religious zealot. Despite the marginalisation by neighbours in the region, Erdogan vows to “sacrifice everything, including lives” to make Turkey powerful.

 

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Pakistan Risking Ties with Saudi Arabia over its Kashmir Obsession

Since its existence, Pakistan has been consumed by Kashmir. Kashmir issue has been integral component of Pakistan’s foreign policy. Over the past seven decades, Pakistan waged three wars with India and raised the issue at numerous international forums to garner diplomatic support. Even the much touted all weather friendship with China is laid on the foundation of Kashmir issue and anti-India agenda. Despite its obsession with Kashmir, Pakistan never had any concrete frame work or vision for its future. This lack of clarity became more obvious after India revoked special constitutional status for Jammu and Kashmir last year. A year since the abrogation of article 370, after having divided J&K into two union territories, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, Indian government steered this region towards development. By granting domicile status to the rightful residents of the region, restoring the affirmative action which deprived the needy of the special privileges, inaugurating infrastructure development projects, strengthening the deradicalization and integration programs, Indian government displayed tremendous appetite to resurrect the valley infested by the anti-national elements. While there are conflicting opinions about the progress, the commitment and conviction of Indian government to revive and rejuvenate the region has been commendable. On the contrary, Pakistan continued to infiltrate terrorists and tried every trick in the book to disrupt peace and harmony of the region.

With revocation of article 370, India has not only removed oxygen out of Pakistan’s foreign policy, but stifled the aspirations of Imran Khan’s government whose single point agenda has been Kashmir. After the annulment of article 370, Khan self-appointed himself as the ambassador of Kashmir and rallied for international support. Barring China, which managed to arrange for an informal discussion on Kashmir, no country formally lent support to Pakistan. Thronging to OIC, Pakistan sought for an anti-India resolution in the aftermath of termination of special status to Kashmir. Major Islamic countries, steered clear of the issue. At the UNGA session, Malaysia, Turkey, China raised the Kashmir issue. But this failed to create enough ripples in the diplomatic circles. Pakistan’s efforts to raise the issue at international forums was met with indifference and indignation.

On the contrary, India tellingly, prioritised Kashmir’s development and its economic and social integration with rest of the country. Commemorating the first anniversary, while the Gujjars, Bakarwals and others in Kashmir celebrated two-day Bangus Awam Mela, inaugurated by Rashtriya Rifles and followed by free medical camp, veterinary camp and village games, Pakistan designated August 5^th as Youm-e-Istehsal (day of exploitation) and planned nefarious activities. To draw international attention, Pakistan organised solidarity marches in provincial capitals, organised photo exhibitions and seminars, presented memorandum to UN Observer Mission, changed the name of Kashmir Highway to Srinagar highway and reflecting his ‘political absurdity’ Khan unveiled a new political map of Pakistan comprising of two UT’s of J&K, Ladakh, Junagarh and Sir Creek of Gujarat.

Notwithstanding the ostentatious political aggrandisement and sinking international credibility, Pakistan’s foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi kicked up a diplomatic storm by slamming Saudi Arabia over Kashmir in a TV interview. Qureshi threatened Saudi, “If you cannot convene the meeting of OIC Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM) on Kashmir, then I’ll be compelled to ask Prime Minister Imran Khan to call a meeting of the Islamic countries that are ready to stand with us on the issue of Kashmir and support the oppressed Kashmiris”. By indirectly hinting at splitting the OIC, Qureshi riled Saudi Arabia. Enraged by Qureshi’s condescending remarks, Saudi demanded Pakistan to cough up $1 billion, part of $6.2 billion package comprising of $3billion loan and $3.2 billion worth oil on deferred payments pledged by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) during his Pakistan visit in 2018.  Pakistan borrowed $1 billion from China and claimed to have made an economic favour to Saudi during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Back in 2018, a cash-starved Pakistan displayed its highest loyalties and Khan chauffeured MBS from airport to demonstrate his priorities. An enamoured MBS pledged $6.2 billion package and $20 billion investments in Pakistan. But Pakistan’s dubious game plan of cozying up to Turkey, hell-bent on clinching the reigns of Muslim World from Saudi and Khan’s announcement of starting a television channel with Malaysia and Turkey along the sidelines of UNGA to counter Islamophobia has angered Saudi which forced Khan to backout from the Kuala Lumpur Islamic Summit at the eleventh hour. Khan’s penchant for the Turkish approval, identity and the strategic reinforcement of Pakistan’s paramountcy in the five-country alliance (Pakistan-China-Iran-Turkey-Russia) to counter the India-Israel-US and its advocacy of Pan-Islamism as panacea for global ummah had created new rifts in the Pakistan-Saudi relationship. Pakistan’s growing closeness to Turkey and its new found aspirations to be part of the Neo-Ottoman Empire conceived by President Erdogan has sowed the seeds of suspicions.

UAE and Saudi which are slowly rejecting the Muslim brotherhood have grown wary of Pakistan’s aspirations. Indeed, UAE which has pledged $6.2 billion package has later downsized the financial assistance.

For decades Pakistan has been dependent on Saudi Arabia for financial assistance, economic bail outs and remittances from millions of Pakistani working in Saudi has provided much needed economic cushion. Indeed, last year Khan hired private jet of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) to attend UNGA session at New York. In fact, Saudi is also reported to have Pakistan’s nuclear mission.  Saudi commands immense influence in Pakistani society through the Islamic clerics who propagate the Wahhabi Islamism. Ties between the two countries are deeply intertwined with Pakistani security forces playing a lead role in training Saudi armed forces and offering security to the Royal family. In 2015, during the Yemen war, Pakistan refused to send its troops but allowed former Army chief Raheel Sharif to head the counter-terrorism coalition. While Pakistan has been traditionally close to Saudi, Khan’s unprecedented outreach to Turkey has now dented the relationship. But Pakistan’s infamy of changing colours and shifting allegiances has also alerted Arab World of its foul play. For long, Pakistan exploited mileage in the Islamic world due to its close cultural and religious ties with Saudi.

Notwithstanding Qureshi’s blunt remarks, Pakistan foreign office defended his criticism, for it reflected the “public aspirations and expectations” widening the rift. Cognizant of Saudi’s centrality to Pakistan’s foreign policy, Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa and head ISI Gen Faiz Hameed rushed to Riyadh to undo the damage done by Qureshi. But Bajwa failed to secure a meeting with MBS, instead he met Saudi’s Deputy Defence Minister and military chief of staff. MBS is known for his hospitality and a royal snub is hence a reflection of Saudi’s displeasure. As per IANS, a snubbed Bajwa is reportedly reaching out to the rivals of MBS in the Royal family through diplomatic channels ².

In the meanwhile, Prime Minister Khan brushing aside the reports of rift with Saudi Arabia added that, “Pakistan’s future is connected with China” which has stood by it in good and bad times and dispatched Foreign Minister to China on a two-day trip³. By sending emissaries to Saudi and China, Chinese strategic experts contend that Pakistan intends to sends signal to diversify foreign ties just like Saudi. Contrary to the postulations of Pakistan watchers, thus far, Pakistan has allied with countries which served as cash-cows, advanced its anti-India agenda and bestowed significant recognition as an important regional player.

Amid the fluctuating oil prices, Saudi economy is currently weakening. With the policy of Arabisation in place, Riyadh may soon cease to be an employment destination for unskilled Pakistani workers. With MBS internally struggling with many challenges, domestic, financial and external, the mantle of protector of Islamic World seems to be slipping away from Saudi. Pakistan’s ambitions of cobbling significant clout among Muslim ummah can’t be realised by aligning with. Besides, Saudi which is now the fourth largest trading partner of India is more favourable disposed towards New Delhi, which offers better returns of investments and opportunities as compared to Pakistan’s collapsing economy and shrinking markets.

With the threat of Iran looming large in the region, Saudi has dispensed off with its reluctance to alienate Israel. With new alliances taking shape in the Middle East, Saudi is no longer inclined to look towards Pakistan for security. According highest priority to diversification of economy, Saudi has put Islamization project on backburner. Hence, Pakistan which relentlessly invokes Islamic ideology to pursue its strategic goals is levitating towards new Islamic zealot, Erdogan. If reports are to be believed Pakistan’s Nayadaur news agency reported that Saudi has prevailed upon Pakistan to severe ties with China and isolate it amid the escalating Indo-Chinese tensions ⁴. Also, Riyadh asked Islamabad not to cooperate with China with its $400 billion investments in Iran. While Pakistan Foreign Ministry has debunked this news report, Saudi is not certainly happy with the evolving China-Iran tangle under the ruse of BRI in the region.

Exasperated by Pakistan’s implausible jingoistic rhetoric for the past seven decades and its burgeoning reputation as mothership of terror, nations started rebuffing Islamabad’s stance on Kashmir. But a heady Pakistan stubbornly refuse to take a reality check. Instead of a pragmatic approach towards Kashmir, Islamabad which pursues a grand strategy of capitalising on its strategic location, continues to advance a virulent anti-India agenda. With Arab countries refusing to lend credence to Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, Pakistan is looking for new partners. In the wake of rising Sino-US animosities and deepening India-US strategic partnership, more than ever, Pakistan is now throwing its weight behind the Chinese-led alliance to encircle and encumber India. Driven by its anti-India agenda and Pakistani obsession, Pakistan is risking its ties with Arab allies which ruled constitutional legislation on Kashmir as an internal affair of India.

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Multiple Facets of Israel-UAE Normalisation Agreement

Peace and harmony eluded the Middle East, a region which has been at the centre of worst global crises and a cauldron of sectarian conflicts. Giving peace a chance, through a US mediated agreement, Israel and the UAE agreed to normalise diplomatic ties on August 13^th. This iconic decision besides rescinding the ‘Pariah state’ reputation of Israel has given a strong impetus for an Arab-Jewish rapprochement. With this UAE has become third country in the region after Egypt in 1979 in return for complete withdrawal of Sinai Peninsula and Jordan in 1994 at the height of Oslo peace process established diplomatic ties with Israel. Unlike the ties with other Arab countries which emerged as an outcome of peace negotiations, this agreement isn’t preceded by any peace talks.

Hailed as biggest foreign policy achievement of the Trump administration, the historic agreement is bound to bring about a massive change in geopolitical calculus of the region. With reports of Bahrain and Oman keen to follow the suit, Israel’s aspirations of bettering ties with Gulf countries are now officiated. Over the past few years, owing to growing assertive threats from Iran, Emirati and Arab countries have cozied up to Israel for intelligence sharing, cyberweapons and security cooperation. But this cooperation has been under wraps.

The US-mediated agreement announced after a trilateral call between President Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed known as Abraham Accord lays foundation for establishing normal ties between Israel and the UAE. Accordingly, business ties, tourism, scientific cooperation, trade, direct flights and complete diplomatic ties at ambassador level will be pursued. While there is still an ambiguity about the location of the UAE embassy at Jerusalem, security cooperation, the unofficially spelt out parameter, which brought the nations together would be cornerstone of this new relationship. Since 2015, Israeli athletes, politicians have been travelling to UAE and Israel has opened diplomatic office linked to International renewable energy consortium in Abu Dhabi. Indeed, Israel has economic offices in Qatar and Oman as well. UAE has extended invitation to Israel to participate in the World Expo 2020 to be held in 2021 due to pandemic. This agreement would now bring to open all these unofficial links between Israel and the UAE to fore. It will add new momentum to the synergistic cooperation between two countries especially in defence sector.

After the covert Iranian attacks on UAE vessels and its efforts to dominate the straits of Hormuz last year, UAE has resolved to stave away these attacks through acquisition of new defence technologies. Israel as the hub of innovative technologies and ace manufacturer of sophisticated weapons could be a useful partner to the Arab countries. Looming Iranian threat and deferment of annexation plans by Netanyahu culminated in UAE seizing the opportune moment to formalise the ties. Hinting at UAE’s displeasure towards annexation plans which can potentially reignite tensions and scuttle the relationships in the regions, UAE Ambassador to the US, Yousef Al Otaiba penned an Op-Ed in Hebrew in published in Israel’s largest circulating newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth in June ¹. Underscoring the upside of good ties between the diversified economies and advanced militaries, UAE contested the annexation and expressed its commitment to the Arab Peace Initiative. Harnessing this positivity, President Trump who has invested considerable energy in the Middle East and made it his priority, brought the countries together.

Welcoming the agreement Netanyahu termed the accord has “opened a new era in Israel’s relations with the Arab World”.  An effusive Bibi described the new deal as, “peace for peace and peace via strength. Here too we made a breakthrough”. While a cautious MBZ tweeted, “an agreement was reached to stop further Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories. The UAE and Israel also agreed to cooperation and setting a roadmap towards establishing a bilateral relationship” ⁹. The measured statement of UAE is reflective of the fact that Israel was made to pay a price to obtain these massive concessions. But Netanyahu immediately asserted that annexation plans are ‘suspended’, and the plan remains ‘on the table’ to drive home the message of not relinquishing sovereignty to obtain peace to pander to the pro-annexation and rightist groups.

Netanyahu in an interview at Army Radio reiterated, “It’s not as if someone gave me a choice and told me to pick either sovereignty or normalisation. Just nobody believed I would bring a peace agreement-I will also bring sovereignty” ^2.

Miffed by the UAE’s violation of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, Palestine recalled its ambassador. Condemning the deal, Palestine termed it as “betrayal of Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa and the Palestine cause”. Hamas which is designated as a terrorist group also rejected the deal saying that, “the agreement does absolutely not serve the Palestine cause, it rather serves Zionist narrative.” Foreign Minister of UAE countered that normalisation of the ties as “badly needed realism” ³. Indeed, UAE’s statement should be a wakeup call to corrupt Palestine regime which is slowly losing relevance. Instead of accusing UAE of betrayal, Palestine must do a reality check. While sceptics attribute the deal to Palestine’s bad diplomacy, in reality, the obduracy and obstinacy of Palestinians has been biggest impediment to Israel-Palestine peace process.

Driven by national interests and threats emanating from Iran and its allies, Arab countries no longer bogged down by Palestine cause are openly mulling formal ties with Israel which is emerging as a vibrant nation. Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman welcomed the deal. Morocco and Sudan too have reposed interest in forging ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia has been silent about the deal. But back in 2018, Mohammed bin Salman in an interview acknowledges Israel’s right over its land ⁸. Through his historic visit to Oman in 2018, Netanyahu laid a foundation for normalisation of ties with Arab countries. While Bahrain has already instituted a process for establishing diplomatic ties with Israel, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq who is yet to consolidate his power in Oman after the death of Sultan Qaboos is treading the path cautiously. According to a poll by Channel 12, 76.7% Israelis have favoured the deal over annexation as against 16.5% voted for annexation ⁴.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called the deal a “huge mistake” and condemned it. In response, summoning the Iran’s charge de affaires, UAE issued a strong worded memo indicating its strong disapproval. Further, UAE Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash took to twitter to say, “the UAE-Israeli treaty is a sovereign decision is not directed at Iran. We say this and repeat it. We do not accept interference in our decisions”⁵. Despite the fraught politics, UAE maintains friendly ties with Iran. UAE dispatched supplies and aid to Iran during the COVID-combat. On August 2^nd foreign ministers of both countries held a video conference to discuss COVID challenge ⁶. Turkey and Qatar condemned the deal and the former threatened to severe diplomatic ties with UAE and withdraw its ambassador.

While Trump’s hardened stance, unilateral withdrawal of JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), tightening of sanctions and iniquitous isolation of Iran has brought the Arab countries and Israel closer, deepening fissures in the region and eventual emergence of Turkey-Iran-Qatar trifecta has steered Jewish-Arab rapprochement. Qatar’s eviction from GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) sent it scrambling into Tehran’s tent and Erdogan’s ambitions to usurp leadership of Muslim World from Saudi Arabia and tiff with UAE in Libya have widened the rifts in the Gulf. At this juncture, President Trump’s penchant to clinch a peace deal for Middle East or deal of century and pocket a foreign policy victory has further hastened the realisation of this historic agreement.

This agreement has set all the parties involved into motion even before it is even signed. Days after the announcement, Israel and UAE have launched direct telephone lines. UAE has removed block on Israeli websites ⁷. Tipped to be signed ahead of the November Presidential elections, Trump’s foreign policy victory has removed steam out of Democratic camp believed to be surging ahead after announcement of Kamala Harris as Vice-Presidential candidate. The accord gave huge boost to Netanyahu whose popularity has hit rock bottom. Though normalisation is fraught with several impediments, there is a new enthusiasm in the region with many Israelis eagerly waiting to travel to UAE. Delaying of annexation plans has offered much needed relief to Jordan tormented by the prospect of a flaring up of tensions in the region. While the Trump’s deal failed to provide a reliable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, normalisation of ties has propelled a new process of reconciliation. Palestinian self-determination which dominated the agenda of Middle East is pushed further down the lane. By rejecting proposed financial assistance under the Trump’s peace plan, Palestine seems to be the biggest loser for failing to get its act together. By refusing to approve Israel’s annexation plans, the US has torpedoed Netanyahu’s unilateral decision ¹⁰.

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Lebanon on the brink of total collapse

 

On August 4^th powerful explosion from estimated 2,750 metric tons of the Ammonium Nitrate stored in hangars of Port Beirut ripped apart the capital killing over 200 people, injuring 6000 injured and left hundreds missing. Initial reports claim over 300,000 people including 80,000 children (as per UNICEF) are displaced due to the blasts. More than a week after the blasts the cloud of dust has settled, officials are slowly assessing the extent of damage. Satellite images point to a creation of a 405ft crater at the site of the blast. The impact of the nuke-like explosion was felt as far as Cyprus island.

Beirut blast sparked off several conspiracy theories. The first and foremost being Israeli’s involvement. In the aftermath of the blast, Israeli authorities denied any role and Lebanese Prime Minister attributed it to the tons of Ammonium Nitrate languishing in the Port of Beirut. But President Michel Aoun rejecting a global probe hinted two possibilities of negligence and foreign interference through missile or bomb ¹. Even President Trump termed the blast an attack, fuelling suspicions. For decades, Lebanese based Hezbollah has been at war with Israel. In the last week of July, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) thwarted Hezbollah’s infiltration bid, reported of its rocket attack on Israeli tank and warned of dire consequences. Hezbollah quickly denied any reports of clashes but reserved the right to extract revenge of killing of Hezbollah operative Ali Kamel Mohsin who was killed in an Israeli strike on Iran’s ammunition depot in Damascus². Keen on averting any conflagration, Israel conveyed a message of unintended killing of Ali through the UN. But Hezbollah’s general-secretary Hassan Nasrullah threatened Israel of aggressive action. Indeed, several people contended that this would spark a fresh row.

Putting rest to the rumours, Hezbollah sources close to Lebanon OTV said, “there is no truth” to reports of Israel striking on Hezbollah’s weaponry. Even Israeli officials denied any role ³. But Israeli media had longingly reminisced Hezbollah’s Nasrullah threat of blowing up Hafia Port’s Ammonia tank, which has potential to create an impact similar to nuclear bomb four years ago. Destiny has uncanny way of hitting hard and instead of Israel, Lebanon was jolted by a devastating explosion.

Given the timing of the blast, which occurred just three days ahead of pronouncement of judgement on the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri in 2005 indicting four Hezbollah terrorists and 21 others, the orchestration of blast by Hezbollah is gaining much traction. An enormous truck bomb on Feb 14^th 2005, which killed the Prime Minister created a massive political upheaval in the country. Mass demonstrations and sectarian strife engulfed the country and prompted a clean-up of financial and governance mess. It caused the departure of Syrian troops and other intelligence operatives from Lebanon. Under global pressure to conduct impartial and comprehensive investigation, Lebanon sought the support of UN agencies. A Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) based out of The Hague was thus constituted to probe the assassination in 2009.

While Saad Hariri, son of Rafik Hariri was eagerly waiting for the day of the judgement, Aug 7^th, “out of respect for the countless victims of the devastating explosion and three days of public mourning”, STL announced the postponement of verdict to August 18^th. Though the possibility of an accident triggering the blast can’t be ruled out, the role of Hezbollah to delay the verdict is becoming more ominous. It is no secret that after the 1990 Taif’s agreement that put an end to years of Lebanese Civil war, all militias were disbanded except the Hezbollah. Since 1982, Hezbollah, firmly entrenched in the system, grew in strength with support of Iran and transformed into a formidable resistance force against Israel in South Lebanon. Ceding ground to Hezbollah, the government of Lebanon slowly handed over its security to the militia. Over years, Iran backed militia soon donned the role of legitimate political entity.

Deemed as the Switzerland of the Middle East, Lebanon, which became independent in 1943 created a parliament in which Muslims and Christians had equal quota. Accordingly, the President was Maronite Christian, Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim and Speaker a Shia Muslim. Home to multi-ethnic communities, Lebanon known for its cosmopolitan outlook has been fertile ground for Middle East’s sectarian politics with the dominant Muslim community comprising of equal numbers of Sunnis and Shias. Maronite Christians and orthodox Druze leaned to west. Soon, Lebanon became a concocted pot of citizens with several external allegiances, none sharing the feeling of belongingness to Lebanon. With the massive influx of Palestinians into Lebanon since 1948, the country which has been an Oasis in the Middle East became a strategic ground for geopolitical tussle.

Steady inflow of Palestinians into Lebanon changed the demography of the region leading to political and religious polarisation. As tensions simmered between Christians and Muslims, Christian President Camille Chamoun sought US military intervention to handle the political crisis in 1958. Subsequently during the cold war, Christians sided with the US, Arabs and Leftists aligned with the Soviet Union. Fighting between these factions eventually led to Civil war which lasted for 15 years. Israel and Syria also became involved in the war. Finally, with the support of the US, the war ended with inking of Taif Accord 1990 in Saudi Arabia. Post Lebanese Civil war, US cultivated oligarchs from various groups to maintain its toe hold in the country and prevent eventual takeover of Lebanon by Hezbollah.

After the civil war, resurgence of a strong middle class, paved way for economic boom. Economy flourished and registered firm growth. But unsavoury policies like banks extending 10% interest on deposits and loaning its own capital at higher interests to Central banks to create an illusion of a strong currency, led to accumulation of highest sovereign debt ⁴. Rampant corruption of oligarchs, crumbling of governance systems threw economy out of gear by October 2019. As per UN reports, Lebanon reeled under 150% of public debt to GDP. Growth shrunk to 0.2% from 8% in 2010. Reportedly a whopping one-third of population were living below poverty line and top one percent held quarter of economy ⁵.

Currency crisis, depletion of dollars, soaring prices, downturn in economy, surge in unemployment, pushed the import-reliant economy to its brink. After government announced taxes on everything including collection of garbage and tobacco, large scale public protests erupted across the country last year October. People camped in tents at the Sahat Al-Nour Square, Tripoli and demanded major economic reforms, technocrat cabinet and massive revamp of the political structure. Following Corona outbreak, government has imposed emergency. Citing pandemic restrictions, security personnel evicted people from the tents. Ever since the protests slowly petered out. The closure of land and seaports have exacerbated the financial uncertainty. Lebanese Pound plummeted.

For decades, through equal distribution of power a unity government comprising of Sunnis, Shias and Christians ensured a semblance of peace in Lebanon. This tight rope-walk and fine balancing hampered decision making. Following intense protests, Prime Minister, Saad Hariri tendered his resignation in October.

Beirut blasts inflicted a devastated blow to the economy and incurred damages to a tune of $15 billion to Lebanon which is in talks with IMF for a $10 billion package to resurrect its flailing economy.

The blast invariably exposed the Hezbollah’s burgeoning control over country’s civil infrastructure which is used for trading and importing dual-use items to advance its rocket building abilities.  Four years ago, Israeli ambassador warned UNSC about Port of Beirut being turned into Port of Hezobollah. Neither the World nor the political dispensation of Lebanon heeded to this sage advice. In 2015 MI5 arrested a Hezbollah operative for stashing three tones of Ammonium Nitrate between ice packs in a store house in London. Between 2012 and 2016 Shia militias were found storing Ammonium Nitrate using the same technique in Germany to attack Israeli targets and Jews. Germany soon designated Hezbollah as terrorist group. Guerrilla activities of the Hezbollah militia are busted in countries like Thailand, Cyprus and Bulgaria.

Incidentally the thousands of tons of Ammonium Nitrate lying in Beirut port since 2014 is traced to a Moldovan flag bearing ship with a Russian owner started from Georgia carrying the chemical to Mozambique made a detour to Beirut and anchored there. The ship which reportedly sank in 2018 sheds new light on the links between Russia and Hezbollah. While countries like the US, UK, Canada, New Zealand, Israel, Australia and the EU designated Hezbollah as terrorist organisation, Russia refused to do so ⁶. 

While Hezbollah’s links to the blasts are undeniable, with 12 seats in Parliament, it wields an enormous power over the Lebanese government. By providing basic services like schools and hospitals in areas, neglected by the government, Hezbollah strengthened its position as a legitimate power. Riddled in corruption and embroiled in money making, while Lebanese government is slowly losing people’s confidence, the radical Islamic group tightened its grip.

Giving in to the outrage of the people, Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s cabinet resigned. Endemic corruption, political apathy resulted in the Beirut tragedy, stalemate over negotiations with IMF, compounded deep financial crisis and collapse of the economy. After the blasts, people have stopped taking preventive measures leading to a jump in Corona cases and fatalities. Hospitals and care homes suffered severe damaged by blasts are unable to cater to the growing pandemic cases and people are now scampering for basic health services.

While the resignation of cabinet and announcement of elections to accommodate fresh faces in the government is a welcome move, the real power still rests with the radical Islamist elements. Moved by the plight of Lebanese several countries pledged financial support and essential supplies. However, Hezbollah is the organisation which has the logistics to deliver assistance to masses. Large network of the NGOs is controlled by them. The militia is going to gain control over the international assistance flowing into Lebanon.

Given Hezbollah’s deep roots in Lebanon, people may not be able to resist them. For decades, several international players and vested interested dominated Lebanon’s political landscape. Unmindful of the people’s interests the country has been exploited to serve their interests. While calls for revolution along the streets of Beirut during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit might set off the stage for a new movement, a short-lived movement is unlikely to usher the country into a new realm. Lebanon is at the brink of collapse and the explosions has brought the nation to the edge of the cliff. The country needs a massive revamp and this can’t be achieved until unless the vice-like grip of the militia is severed and long-term political reforms are introduced. 

Construction of Ram Temple will resurrect and revive the spirit of Hinduism

India scripted a golden episode. Five centuries of long wait had ended. In a befitting ode to the supreme sacrifices and sankalpa siddhi of thousands of sanatanis, Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi laid the first brick for the construction of a Bhavya Ram Mandir at Ayodhya, the birth place of Bhagwan Shri Ram. Shri Ram is an embodiment of exemplar virtues. His quest for dharma and righteousness has been the guiding force for Bharathvarsha. Reckoned for his filial obedience, Shri Ram in whom both spiritual and political converged, is venerated as a righteous ruler. By setting the precedents of righteous conduct for eons to emulate, Shri Ram is inextricably linked with the identity of this land. The story of Rama is dated back to 5^th century BC. Since then his legacy has been preserved and revered by all sections of the society.

Series of Ramaite cults, revival movements through new mantras, chants and dhyana has kept the flame of the bhakti alive in generations of India despite the numerous attacks of their temples. Together the worship of Shri Ram as incarnation and construction of temples by Kings during Muslim invasions has enormously intensified people’s faith. This unquenchable faith and peerless devotion eventually culminated in igniting the collective conscience of people towards the Ram Janbhoomi. Ram belonged to everyone and people assimilated the tradition of Ramayana.

Invoking Ramayana Sri Aurobindo said, “The work of Valmiki has been an agent of almost incalculable power in the moulding of the cultural mind of India: it has presented to it to be loved and imitated figures like Rama and Sita, made so divinely and with such a revelation of reality as to become objects of enduring cult and worship, or like Hanuman, Lakshmana, Bharata the living human image of its ethical ideals; it has fashioned much of what is best and sweetest in the national character, and it has evoked and fixed in it those finer and exquisite yet firm soul-tones and that more delicate humanity of temperament which are more valuable thing than the formal outsides of virtue and conduct”.

While Leftists continued to undermine the intensity of Hindu attachment towards Ayodhya and ruthlessly peddled Shri Ram legacy is of recent origin, reposing faith in democracy, Hindus continued their legal battle to rightfully claim ownership over the Ram Janmabhoomi. Even after winning the longstanding battle, to avoid sparking any communal unrest, Hindus voluntarily toned down their celebrations and moments of ecstasy. This entire Rama Janbhoomi movement thus symbolised the perseverance of Hindus, their tolerance, faith in legal process and above all their unshakeable devotion in Bhagwan Shri Ram.

Today’s Bhoomi Puja at 12:44:08 by Prime Minister Modi marked the fruition of sacrifices of millions of Hindus. While independence marked the end of decades of slavery and freedom from colonial rule, today’s glorious occasion is second independence for Hindus who relentlessly fought to reclaim the Bhagwan Ram’s Janmasthan. Expressing his overwhelming gratitude to the Sri Ramjanmabhoomi Teertha Kshetra Trust, Modi thanked them for providing him an opportunity to witness this historic moment. Raising a clarion call of “Jai Shri Ram”, Modi stated that, “From Kanyakumari to Kshirbhavani, from Koteswar to Kamakhya, from Jagannath to Kedarnath, Somnath to Kashi Vishwanath, Bodhgaya to Saranath, Andaman to Ajmer, Lakshwadweep to Leh entire country is immersed in Ram.”

 He added-India is emotional today, the wait of centuries has come to an end. Crores of Indians are still unable to believe the unfoldment of this momentous occasion in their live time. Prayers answered, struggle ended. The way Dalits, OBCs, tribals and every section of the society supported Gandhiji during the freedom struggle, this pious work of building Ram temple has started with the cooperation of people all over the country. The way boatman and tribals helped Bhagwan Ram, the way helped Bhagwan Krishna lift Govardhan mountain, similarly, the temple’s construction will be completed with everyone’s efforts”.

Structures were destroyed to exterminate the identity of Ram’s existence but he continued to live in the hearts of people. The cycle of vandalization of temples has failed to diminish the faith of the people. Ram Janmabhoomi breaks this cycle of breaking and re-building a process going on for centuries. The process of building a grand temple besides bringing people together will connect past with the future, the present generation to the culture of the land and ourselves with the sacraments.

Modi reiterated, “Ram sab ke hai, Ram sab mein hai” and that he has been an inspiration to Indians. His legacy is inseparable from the culture of the land. Paying rich tributes to the sacrifices of the thousands of Ram Bhakts, Modi reminded the future generation to assimilate and disseminate the virtues of Shri Ram.

Construction of Ram Mandir aside paving way for resurgence of the Hinduism will revive the spirits of Hindus whose civilisational ethos and enviable legacy has been recklessly derided by secular fraudsters. This momentous occasion is doubly important for Hindus since for the first time, an Indian Prime Minister as the Yajman, ritualistically adhering to the precincts of santanadharma has openly taken pride in his Hindu roots. Thus far, in the history of independent India, leadership has always shied away from celebrating Hinduism. With his humble prostrations, unapologetic assertion of his identity and by wearing his faith on the sleeves, Modi infused new enthusiasm in Hindus. Ram Janmabhoomi will forever be reckoned in history for its message of “truth, non-violence, faith and sacrifice”.  

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Escalatory Iran-Israel cyberattacks

While the frenzied India media has been bombarding domestic audience with the live reports of the first batch of five Rafale fighter aircrafts arriving in India from France enroute the Al-Dhafra, UAE airbase, reports of Iranian Missiles landing into the waters close to airbase rattled security agencies. It now emerges that US intelligence has issued high-alert to security forces stationed at Al-Dhufra airbase and Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar which houses French and American troops after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched military drills, Prophet Mohammed 14^{th 1}. Iran’s show of strength and deliberate attempt to coerce and intimidate the Western forces has inadvertently brought to fore the brewing escalatory attacks in the Middle East.

Since the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in January, the animosity between the US and Iran increased several-fold leading to retaliatory strikes, rocket attacks on the US Embassy in the Iraq, killing of two Americans and One British in March. Trump administration’s unilateral revocation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, tightening of US sanctions, crippled Iran’s economy, triggered a wave domestic protests and brought the nation to its knees. America’s hardened position had irrevocably damaged the relations between Iran and America and turned the Middle East into powder keg of the World.

Like Trump administration, Israeli security agencies believed a pandemic stricken Iran to go slow on its geopolitical ambitions. Much against the popular perception, Iran infused fresh impetus to its attempts to draw Syria into its orbit and began to overwhelm Bashar Al-Assad, keen on extricating from Russian influence. Despite a weakened economy, Iran continued to support the Hezbollah in Lebanon as well.  To combat Iran’s aggression, former education minister of Israel declared the launch of “Octopus Doctrine”. Iran has been spreading mayhem in the Israeli neighbourhood through Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza strip and Shiite militant proxies in Syria.

In April, Iran launched a cyberattack on the Israeli water and sewage treatment plants across the country. Barring minor disruptions Israel didn’t suffer much damage. But the attack provoked Israel. Given the legacy of hostilities between Iran and Israel, Tehran’s involvement came under scanner. Mincing no words, Israeli media blamed Iran, but Iran denied any role.

As part of the “Octopus doctrine”, Israel launched a cyberattack on Iran’s busiest maritime hub Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas. While Iran’s Port and Maritime Organisation quickly dismissed reports of any major disruptions, the Washington Post later claimed that attack caused severe congestion that lasted for some weeks. Fingers were obviously pointed at Israel. Without claiming responsibility, Israel Defence Forces Chief of Staff declared, “Israel will continue acting (against its enemies) with a mix of instruments”. While the arch-adversaries denied their involvement, a slew of cyberattacks followed which included two explosions at Khojir, Iran’s largest missile production facility and Natanz nuclear base.

Given Israel’s history of targeting nuclear bases in the region- Iraq’s Osirak nuclear base in 1981, Syrian nuclear facility at al-Kibar in 2007 and incapacitation of Iranian nuclear centrifuges in 2009 with active support of the US through the Stuxnet computer worm, an attack on Natanz nuclear base which houses the quintessential centrifuges hinted at Israel’s role. In 2012, Israel unleashed Duqu and Flame campaign on Iran to steal data. But Homeland Cheetah’s group comprising Iranian dissidents reportedly claimed responsibility for the attack ². Investigating the email of the group security agencies called it an attempt to mislead investigations, but without an iota of doubt, this group akin to other Iranian Cybergroups which are essentially handles of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Cyber Army is composed to group of hackers. This fire accident at the nuclear base and a series of mysterious fire accidents at various places since the end of May in Iran hinted at a possibility of an ongoing Cyberwarfare between the arch-enemies Iran and Israel. Incidentally, Parchin and Khojir are strategically important places for Iran. The attacks clearly signal the intentions of the perpetrators to bring Iran to knees and force the Iranian military regime to stop financing the militant groups. After the blast at Nantz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Facility, Iranian administration acknowledged “(sabotage by) hostile countries, especially the Zionist regime and the US”.

Thus far, mysterious blasts were reported at-Medical clinic in Tehran, fire in Shiraz, explosion and fire in power plant in Ahwaz, Chlorine gas leak at Karoun Petrochemical plant Mahshahr, seven ships catch fire at Iran’s Bushehr Port.

Interestingly by breaching the redlines of Israel and attempting to dismantle the essential civilian supplies, Iran intended to wreak havoc. Israel which is feeling the heat of burgeoning Iranian attacks decided to pay back in similar coin. Though both countries have refused to own up the attacks, the digital trials left by Iranian hacker group had added strength to this growing discourse on Cyberwar.

Researchers of IBM X-Force security team during their routine monitoring chanced upon a five-hour APT35 or Charming Kitten, the popular Iranian hacking group, outlining the detailed process of exfiltrating and stealing data from emails in mid-July ³. These and the claims by an Iranian group to have launched a series of cyberattacks on Israel Rail Infrastructure goes on to confirm the use of cyberoperations as statecraft by the Islamic Republic ⁴.

After the crushing sanctions and dissolution of the JCPOA, Iran refused to adhere to the moratorium on enrichment and steadily restored nuclear activities as a leverage. Israel which has been firmly campaigning about Iran’s nuclear ambitions wary of Iran’s unabated missile development efforts has been closely monitoring Tehran’s activities in the region. Iran’s cyberattack as a part of Qod’s Day triggered Israel wrath which has been waiting for an opportunity to send a strategic signal. As a part of deterrence, Israel not only attacked the civilian systems, but paralysed strategically important military sites.

In recent years, Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) and the shell companies operating from ports have turned into centres of missile and nuclear proliferation and Israel’s retaliatory cyber attacks on Bandar Abbas port is a signal to the adversary to refrain from escalating from cyber operations. Since 2012, Iranian administration focussed on building cyber capabilities to knockdown Israel’s utilities. Beginning 2016, Iranian groups attempted to take down Israel Electric Company. Popular as the “Operation Electric Powder”, Iranian group tried to spread malware through facebook profiles pages, breached websites and cloud-based websites. They renewed attacks in 2019 on Israeli utilities. Israel, which is technologically better endowed, effectively blunted Iranian attempts. Over the years, Iranian hacking groups AP34, Helix Kitten, Cobalt Gypsy or Oil Rig had reportedly intruded the water systems in Gulf. But the third-party leaks through hactivist groups of the groups tools and intrusions degraded their abilities to breach technologically mature Israel systems.

Over the years, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has invested heavily in training Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanon hackers. The collective and coordinated attacks on Israel by the Palestinian Origin group Molerats or Extreme Jackal operating from Gaza strip and the operations of the Jerusalem Electronic Army (JEA) is part of the larger ecosystem cultivated by Iran to take on Israel ⁵. Instead of the prohibitive conventional war, Iran and Israel are now indulging in state-sponsored cyberattacks.

Cyberattacks and breaching of the security protocols by countries to infiltrate crucial information has been in vogue in the recent past. But the recent episode of shadow war has added new clandestine dimension to the state-sponsored cyberoperations. World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2020 ranked largescale cyberattacks and breakdown of critical information infrastructure and network among the top ten risks to livelihood ⁶. The open-ended cyberskirmishes between Iran and Israel has now reinforced the dangerous fall outs of digital wars between adversaries which has potential to be mimicked by other nations as well. With no international guidelines or deterrence mechanisms in place to dissuade the countries from this ambition cyber campaigns, the World has been silently watching the unfoldment of new era of potentially threatening cyberwar.

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