Peace and harmony eluded the Middle East, a region which has been at the centre of worst global crises and a cauldron of sectarian conflicts. Giving peace a chance, through a US mediated agreement, Israel and the UAE agreed to normalise diplomatic ties on August 13th. This iconic decision besides rescinding the ‘Pariah state’ reputation of Israel has given a strong impetus for an Arab-Jewish rapprochement. With this UAE has become third country in the region after Egypt in 1979 in return for complete withdrawal of Sinai Peninsula and Jordan in 1994 at the height of Oslo peace process established diplomatic ties with Israel. Unlike the ties with other Arab countries which emerged as an outcome of peace negotiations, this agreement isn’t preceded by any peace talks.
Hailed as biggest foreign policy
achievement of the Trump administration, the historic agreement is bound to
bring about a massive change in geopolitical calculus of the region. With
reports of Bahrain and Oman keen to follow the suit, Israel’s aspirations of
bettering ties with Gulf countries are now officiated. Over the past few years,
owing to growing assertive threats from Iran, Emirati and Arab countries have
cozied up to Israel for intelligence sharing, cyberweapons and security
cooperation. But this cooperation has been under wraps.
The US-mediated agreement announced
after a trilateral call between President Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed known as Abraham Accord lays
foundation for establishing normal ties between Israel and the UAE. Accordingly,
business ties, tourism, scientific cooperation, trade, direct flights and
complete diplomatic ties at ambassador level will be pursued. While there is
still an ambiguity about the location of the UAE embassy at Jerusalem, security
cooperation, the unofficially spelt out parameter, which brought the nations
together would be cornerstone of this new relationship. Since 2015, Israeli
athletes, politicians have been travelling to UAE and Israel has opened
diplomatic office linked to International renewable energy consortium in Abu
Dhabi. Indeed, Israel has economic offices in Qatar and Oman as well. UAE has
extended invitation to Israel to participate in the World Expo 2020 to be held
in 2021 due to pandemic. This agreement would now bring to open all these
unofficial links between Israel and the UAE to fore. It will add new momentum
to the synergistic cooperation between two countries especially in defence
sector.
After the covert Iranian attacks on
UAE vessels and its efforts to dominate the straits of Hormuz last year, UAE
has resolved to stave away these attacks through acquisition of new defence
technologies. Israel as the hub of innovative technologies and ace manufacturer
of sophisticated weapons could be a useful partner to the Arab countries.
Looming Iranian threat and deferment of annexation plans by Netanyahu
culminated in UAE seizing the opportune moment to formalise the ties. Hinting
at UAE’s displeasure towards annexation plans which can potentially reignite
tensions and scuttle the relationships in the regions, UAE Ambassador to the
US, Yousef Al Otaiba penned an Op-Ed in Hebrew in published in Israel’s largest
circulating newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth in June 1.
Underscoring the upside of good ties between the diversified economies and
advanced militaries, UAE contested the annexation and expressed its commitment
to the Arab Peace Initiative. Harnessing this positivity, President Trump who
has invested considerable energy in the Middle East and made it his priority,
brought the countries together.
Welcoming the agreement Netanyahu
termed the accord has “opened a new era in Israel’s relations with the Arab
World”. An effusive Bibi described
the new deal as, “peace for peace and peace via strength. Here too we made a
breakthrough”. While a cautious MBZ tweeted, “an agreement was reached
to stop further Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories. The UAE and
Israel also agreed to cooperation and setting a roadmap towards establishing a
bilateral relationship” 9. The measured statement of UAE
is reflective of the fact that Israel was made to pay a price to obtain these
massive concessions. But Netanyahu immediately asserted that annexation plans
are ‘suspended’, and the plan remains ‘on the table’ to drive home the message
of not relinquishing sovereignty to obtain peace to pander to the
pro-annexation and rightist groups.
Netanyahu in an interview at Army
Radio reiterated, “It’s not as if someone gave me a choice and told me to
pick either sovereignty or normalisation. Just nobody believed I would bring a
peace agreement-I will also bring sovereignty” 2.
Miffed by the UAE’s violation of
the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, Palestine recalled its ambassador. Condemning
the deal, Palestine termed it as “betrayal of Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa and the
Palestine cause”. Hamas which is designated as a terrorist group also
rejected the deal saying that, “the agreement does absolutely not serve the
Palestine cause, it rather serves Zionist narrative.” Foreign Minister of
UAE countered that normalisation of the ties as “badly needed realism” 3.
Indeed, UAE’s statement should be a wakeup call to corrupt Palestine regime
which is slowly losing relevance. Instead of accusing UAE of betrayal,
Palestine must do a reality check. While sceptics attribute the deal to
Palestine’s bad diplomacy, in reality, the obduracy and obstinacy of
Palestinians has been biggest impediment to Israel-Palestine peace process.
Driven by national interests and
threats emanating from Iran and its allies, Arab countries no longer bogged
down by Palestine cause are openly mulling formal ties with Israel which is
emerging as a vibrant nation. Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman welcomed the deal. Morocco
and Sudan too have reposed interest in forging ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia
has been silent about the deal. But back in 2018, Mohammed bin Salman in an
interview acknowledges Israel’s right over its land 8.
Through his historic visit to Oman in 2018, Netanyahu laid a foundation for
normalisation of ties with Arab countries. While Bahrain has already instituted
a process for establishing diplomatic ties with Israel, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq
who is yet to consolidate his power in Oman after the death of Sultan Qaboos is
treading the path cautiously. According to a poll by Channel 12, 76.7% Israelis
have favoured the deal over annexation as against 16.5% voted for annexation 4.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
called the deal a “huge mistake” and condemned it. In response,
summoning the Iran’s charge de affaires, UAE issued a strong worded memo
indicating its strong disapproval. Further, UAE Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash
took to twitter to say, “the UAE-Israeli treaty is a sovereign decision is
not directed at Iran. We say this and repeat it. We do not accept interference
in our decisions”5. Despite the fraught politics, UAE
maintains friendly ties with Iran. UAE dispatched supplies and aid to Iran
during the COVID-combat. On August 2nd foreign ministers of both
countries held a video conference to discuss COVID challenge 6.
Turkey and Qatar condemned the deal and the former threatened to severe
diplomatic ties with UAE and withdraw its ambassador.
While Trump’s hardened stance,
unilateral withdrawal of JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), tightening
of sanctions and iniquitous isolation of Iran has brought the Arab countries
and Israel closer, deepening fissures in the region and eventual emergence of
Turkey-Iran-Qatar trifecta has steered Jewish-Arab rapprochement. Qatar’s
eviction from GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) sent it scrambling into Tehran’s
tent and Erdogan’s ambitions to usurp leadership of Muslim World from Saudi
Arabia and tiff with UAE in Libya have widened the rifts in the Gulf. At this
juncture, President Trump’s penchant to clinch a peace deal for Middle East or
deal of century and pocket a foreign policy victory has further hastened the
realisation of this historic agreement.
This agreement has set all the
parties involved into motion even before it is even signed. Days after the
announcement, Israel and UAE have launched direct telephone lines. UAE has
removed block on Israeli websites 7. Tipped to be signed
ahead of the November Presidential elections, Trump’s foreign policy victory
has removed steam out of Democratic camp believed to be surging ahead after
announcement of Kamala Harris as Vice-Presidential candidate. The accord gave
huge boost to Netanyahu whose popularity has hit rock bottom. Though
normalisation is fraught with several impediments, there is a new enthusiasm in
the region with many Israelis eagerly waiting to travel to UAE. Delaying of
annexation plans has offered much needed relief to Jordan tormented by the
prospect of a flaring up of tensions in the region. While the Trump’s deal failed
to provide a reliable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,
normalisation of ties has propelled a new process of reconciliation.
Palestinian self-determination which dominated the agenda of Middle East is
pushed further down the lane. By rejecting proposed financial assistance under
the Trump’s peace plan, Palestine seems to be the biggest loser for failing to
get its act together. By refusing to approve Israel’s annexation plans, the US
has torpedoed Netanyahu’s unilateral decision 10.
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