Lebanon on the brink of total collapse

 

On August 4^th powerful explosion from estimated 2,750 metric tons of the Ammonium Nitrate stored in hangars of Port Beirut ripped apart the capital killing over 200 people, injuring 6000 injured and left hundreds missing. Initial reports claim over 300,000 people including 80,000 children (as per UNICEF) are displaced due to the blasts. More than a week after the blasts the cloud of dust has settled, officials are slowly assessing the extent of damage. Satellite images point to a creation of a 405ft crater at the site of the blast. The impact of the nuke-like explosion was felt as far as Cyprus island.

Beirut blast sparked off several conspiracy theories. The first and foremost being Israeli’s involvement. In the aftermath of the blast, Israeli authorities denied any role and Lebanese Prime Minister attributed it to the tons of Ammonium Nitrate languishing in the Port of Beirut. But President Michel Aoun rejecting a global probe hinted two possibilities of negligence and foreign interference through missile or bomb ¹. Even President Trump termed the blast an attack, fuelling suspicions. For decades, Lebanese based Hezbollah has been at war with Israel. In the last week of July, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) thwarted Hezbollah’s infiltration bid, reported of its rocket attack on Israeli tank and warned of dire consequences. Hezbollah quickly denied any reports of clashes but reserved the right to extract revenge of killing of Hezbollah operative Ali Kamel Mohsin who was killed in an Israeli strike on Iran’s ammunition depot in Damascus². Keen on averting any conflagration, Israel conveyed a message of unintended killing of Ali through the UN. But Hezbollah’s general-secretary Hassan Nasrullah threatened Israel of aggressive action. Indeed, several people contended that this would spark a fresh row.

Putting rest to the rumours, Hezbollah sources close to Lebanon OTV said, “there is no truth” to reports of Israel striking on Hezbollah’s weaponry. Even Israeli officials denied any role ³. But Israeli media had longingly reminisced Hezbollah’s Nasrullah threat of blowing up Hafia Port’s Ammonia tank, which has potential to create an impact similar to nuclear bomb four years ago. Destiny has uncanny way of hitting hard and instead of Israel, Lebanon was jolted by a devastating explosion.

Given the timing of the blast, which occurred just three days ahead of pronouncement of judgement on the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri in 2005 indicting four Hezbollah terrorists and 21 others, the orchestration of blast by Hezbollah is gaining much traction. An enormous truck bomb on Feb 14^th 2005, which killed the Prime Minister created a massive political upheaval in the country. Mass demonstrations and sectarian strife engulfed the country and prompted a clean-up of financial and governance mess. It caused the departure of Syrian troops and other intelligence operatives from Lebanon. Under global pressure to conduct impartial and comprehensive investigation, Lebanon sought the support of UN agencies. A Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) based out of The Hague was thus constituted to probe the assassination in 2009.

While Saad Hariri, son of Rafik Hariri was eagerly waiting for the day of the judgement, Aug 7^th, “out of respect for the countless victims of the devastating explosion and three days of public mourning”, STL announced the postponement of verdict to August 18^th. Though the possibility of an accident triggering the blast can’t be ruled out, the role of Hezbollah to delay the verdict is becoming more ominous. It is no secret that after the 1990 Taif’s agreement that put an end to years of Lebanese Civil war, all militias were disbanded except the Hezbollah. Since 1982, Hezbollah, firmly entrenched in the system, grew in strength with support of Iran and transformed into a formidable resistance force against Israel in South Lebanon. Ceding ground to Hezbollah, the government of Lebanon slowly handed over its security to the militia. Over years, Iran backed militia soon donned the role of legitimate political entity.

Deemed as the Switzerland of the Middle East, Lebanon, which became independent in 1943 created a parliament in which Muslims and Christians had equal quota. Accordingly, the President was Maronite Christian, Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim and Speaker a Shia Muslim. Home to multi-ethnic communities, Lebanon known for its cosmopolitan outlook has been fertile ground for Middle East’s sectarian politics with the dominant Muslim community comprising of equal numbers of Sunnis and Shias. Maronite Christians and orthodox Druze leaned to west. Soon, Lebanon became a concocted pot of citizens with several external allegiances, none sharing the feeling of belongingness to Lebanon. With the massive influx of Palestinians into Lebanon since 1948, the country which has been an Oasis in the Middle East became a strategic ground for geopolitical tussle.

Steady inflow of Palestinians into Lebanon changed the demography of the region leading to political and religious polarisation. As tensions simmered between Christians and Muslims, Christian President Camille Chamoun sought US military intervention to handle the political crisis in 1958. Subsequently during the cold war, Christians sided with the US, Arabs and Leftists aligned with the Soviet Union. Fighting between these factions eventually led to Civil war which lasted for 15 years. Israel and Syria also became involved in the war. Finally, with the support of the US, the war ended with inking of Taif Accord 1990 in Saudi Arabia. Post Lebanese Civil war, US cultivated oligarchs from various groups to maintain its toe hold in the country and prevent eventual takeover of Lebanon by Hezbollah.

After the civil war, resurgence of a strong middle class, paved way for economic boom. Economy flourished and registered firm growth. But unsavoury policies like banks extending 10% interest on deposits and loaning its own capital at higher interests to Central banks to create an illusion of a strong currency, led to accumulation of highest sovereign debt ⁴. Rampant corruption of oligarchs, crumbling of governance systems threw economy out of gear by October 2019. As per UN reports, Lebanon reeled under 150% of public debt to GDP. Growth shrunk to 0.2% from 8% in 2010. Reportedly a whopping one-third of population were living below poverty line and top one percent held quarter of economy ⁵.

Currency crisis, depletion of dollars, soaring prices, downturn in economy, surge in unemployment, pushed the import-reliant economy to its brink. After government announced taxes on everything including collection of garbage and tobacco, large scale public protests erupted across the country last year October. People camped in tents at the Sahat Al-Nour Square, Tripoli and demanded major economic reforms, technocrat cabinet and massive revamp of the political structure. Following Corona outbreak, government has imposed emergency. Citing pandemic restrictions, security personnel evicted people from the tents. Ever since the protests slowly petered out. The closure of land and seaports have exacerbated the financial uncertainty. Lebanese Pound plummeted.

For decades, through equal distribution of power a unity government comprising of Sunnis, Shias and Christians ensured a semblance of peace in Lebanon. This tight rope-walk and fine balancing hampered decision making. Following intense protests, Prime Minister, Saad Hariri tendered his resignation in October.

Beirut blasts inflicted a devastated blow to the economy and incurred damages to a tune of $15 billion to Lebanon which is in talks with IMF for a $10 billion package to resurrect its flailing economy.

The blast invariably exposed the Hezbollah’s burgeoning control over country’s civil infrastructure which is used for trading and importing dual-use items to advance its rocket building abilities.  Four years ago, Israeli ambassador warned UNSC about Port of Beirut being turned into Port of Hezobollah. Neither the World nor the political dispensation of Lebanon heeded to this sage advice. In 2015 MI5 arrested a Hezbollah operative for stashing three tones of Ammonium Nitrate between ice packs in a store house in London. Between 2012 and 2016 Shia militias were found storing Ammonium Nitrate using the same technique in Germany to attack Israeli targets and Jews. Germany soon designated Hezbollah as terrorist group. Guerrilla activities of the Hezbollah militia are busted in countries like Thailand, Cyprus and Bulgaria.

Incidentally the thousands of tons of Ammonium Nitrate lying in Beirut port since 2014 is traced to a Moldovan flag bearing ship with a Russian owner started from Georgia carrying the chemical to Mozambique made a detour to Beirut and anchored there. The ship which reportedly sank in 2018 sheds new light on the links between Russia and Hezbollah. While countries like the US, UK, Canada, New Zealand, Israel, Australia and the EU designated Hezbollah as terrorist organisation, Russia refused to do so ⁶. 

While Hezbollah’s links to the blasts are undeniable, with 12 seats in Parliament, it wields an enormous power over the Lebanese government. By providing basic services like schools and hospitals in areas, neglected by the government, Hezbollah strengthened its position as a legitimate power. Riddled in corruption and embroiled in money making, while Lebanese government is slowly losing people’s confidence, the radical Islamic group tightened its grip.

Giving in to the outrage of the people, Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s cabinet resigned. Endemic corruption, political apathy resulted in the Beirut tragedy, stalemate over negotiations with IMF, compounded deep financial crisis and collapse of the economy. After the blasts, people have stopped taking preventive measures leading to a jump in Corona cases and fatalities. Hospitals and care homes suffered severe damaged by blasts are unable to cater to the growing pandemic cases and people are now scampering for basic health services.

While the resignation of cabinet and announcement of elections to accommodate fresh faces in the government is a welcome move, the real power still rests with the radical Islamist elements. Moved by the plight of Lebanese several countries pledged financial support and essential supplies. However, Hezbollah is the organisation which has the logistics to deliver assistance to masses. Large network of the NGOs is controlled by them. The militia is going to gain control over the international assistance flowing into Lebanon.

Given Hezbollah’s deep roots in Lebanon, people may not be able to resist them. For decades, several international players and vested interested dominated Lebanon’s political landscape. Unmindful of the people’s interests the country has been exploited to serve their interests. While calls for revolution along the streets of Beirut during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit might set off the stage for a new movement, a short-lived movement is unlikely to usher the country into a new realm. Lebanon is at the brink of collapse and the explosions has brought the nation to the edge of the cliff. The country needs a massive revamp and this can’t be achieved until unless the vice-like grip of the militia is severed and long-term political reforms are introduced.