Modi’s statesman-like address at the UNGA enthrals the World

Proudly flaunting India’s ethos, civilizational values and culture Prime Minister Narendra Modi spelt out a globalised vision at the 74^th UNGA (United Nations General Assembly) session. As a democratically elected representative of 1.3 billion people Modi presented India’s global vision at the august UN forum.

Much to the chagrin of the pro-Pakistan lobby, Modi carefully avoided any references to Kashmir issue. Subscribing to India’s stated position regarding Kashmir as its internal issue, Modi blithely stayed clear of the issue. Refusing to succumb to Pakistan’s agenda which had held every available forum hostage to the debate on Kashmir issue, Modi demonstrated a characteristic restraint hall mark of a resilient and responsible state. India endured seven decades of Pakistan’s subterfuge, lies and deceit that sapped its vital resources, energies and stifled its economic development. Refusing to get drawn into mudslinging matches with Islamabad, Modi denied Pakistan the much-needed oxygen of international attention. Notorious as epicentre of terror, Pakistan reeling under morass of economic slowdown still seeks parity with India. By circumventing the K-issue, Modi has inconvertibly de-hyphenated India and Pakistan in the World view.

Instead of getting drawn into the Pakistan’s justification of Kashmir as a remnant of the “incomplete partition”, Modi used the platform to contemplate on India’s core civilizational strengths. He posited India as “Vishwa Guru” capable of leading the World by the sheer strength of its belief and value systems which advocate universal brotherhood. He cited three thousand year Tamil philosopher Kaniyan Pungundranar’s quote which means-“we belong to all places and to everyone”. Drawing strength from these ancient excerpts, Modi  not only invoked India’s linguistic diversity but extolled the great tradition of fraternity expounded by Indian philosophers.

As a country which gave message of peace and Buddha to the World, India is rightly is entitled to warn the World of the looming dangers of scourge of terrorism. As an advocate of counter terrorism, Modi appealed nations for collective action for the sake of humanity.

True to spirit of the UNGA, Modi spoke like a global leader from the podium and reflected on India’s journey towards reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Agenda 2030. In 2015, Modi indicated that SDGs mirror India’s developmental goals and pledged to revive lives of millions battling poverty. Beseeching that it is moral responsibility of countries to eliminate poverty, provide sanitation, educational facilities and health care Modi recounted his efforts in remarkably expanding conventional developmental schemes.

Invoking Mahatma Gandhi and special significance of this year which marks 150^th birth anniversary of Father of the nation, Modi listed some major landmarks achieved which included making India Open Defecation Free (ODF), providing Universal health care, financial inclusion, Digital biometric identification, building of houses for the marginalised and improving connectivity. Underscoring his government’s agenda of “sab ka saath, sab ka vikas and sab ka vishwas” whose core objective is elimination of poverty, economic empowerment and inclusivity, he reiterated India’s resolve to make the World a better place to live.

Modi welcomed UN’s special emphasis towards climate change and spoke of India’s silent movement against ban of single use plastic, popularising renewable energy. Acclaiming India’s lowest impact on global warming, he stated India is now front runner in environment conservation. Modi elucidated India’s stellar programs towards mitigating climate change- International Solar Alliance (ISA) for popularising renewables and recently launched Coalition for Disaster and Resilient Infrastructures that extends support to developed and developing countries in building resilient infrastructure.

At the UNGA, Modi expressed India’s interest to form coalitions to evolve sustainable solutions for global challenges, expounded the need for a multilateral world. His emphatic and pragmatic vision stressing the need for having unanimity regarding terrorism is truly inspiring. He expressed empathy towards developing nations and offered to share the experiences gained in implementation of Ayushman Bharat, Swacch Bharat and Jan Dhan Yojana.

As a biggest contributor towards UN Peace Keeping missions at a time when the World is roiled in geopolitical turbulence, Modi invoked Swami Vivekananda’s message of “Harmony and Peace and not dissension”. In his short and crisp message, Modi spoke about development, global challenges, need for multilateralism, innovation and characteristically avoided any rhetoric and virtue signalling. Maintaining the sanctity and decorum of the global platform he refrained from brooking on any bilateral issues. Expressing keenness to be a global stakeholder, Modi has elevated India’s stature and emerged as a statesman in this conflict-ridden World.

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Modi unleashes soft diplomacy @ Howdy! Modi

Breaking the glass ceilings with bold decisions, three months into second term, Modi 2.0 has revamped social, political and economic fabric of the country. Exuding similar enthusiasm and replete of indomitable courage, Modi took the World by a storm with his outstanding speech at “Howdy, Modi” event.

Unprecedented and unparalleled, the event is celebration of the Indian Diaspora’s phenomenal achievements and India’s impending arrival on the global stage. Unlike the Chinese Diaspora which is an extension of the state, Indian Diaspora carved a unique niche for itself by giving back to the society. Regarded as the “model Diaspora” Indians through their hard work, expertise, technological prowess and business acumen has richly contributed towards the progress of the host state. By consequence they earned laurels for their motherland as well.

True to the theme of the event, “shared dreams and bright future” Prime Minister Modi eloquently highlighted the areas of mutual interests and convergence between India and the US sharing dais with President Trump. Smitten by the prospect of addressing a humongous crowd of 50,000 at the NRG stadium, Houston Trump accepted Modi’s request. Coming together of leaders of both countries not only symbolised growing congruence and synergy between nations but set the stage for deepening of bilateral ties.

Singularly handling the twin challenges of a rough shod in Indo-US ties over trade issues and spurious false propaganda regurgitated by self-appointed guardians of human rights, Modi cleared the mist. Puncturing the fabricated myth of India being run by a fascist Hindu regime, Modi met various community groups ahead of the event. Holding testimony to India’s pluralistic credentials, people from diverse groups attended the event dressed in their traditional outfits.  Stumping the raging language debate, Modi said, “Everything is fine” in ten different languages exemplifying the liberal and democratic identity of Indian society. Moved by the deep love and affection showered by Indian Diaspora, Modi proudly introduced them and millions of Indians back home as his family to President Trump.

From the illustrious platform, Modi spoke about welfare schemes rolled out for people that made a world of differences in the lives of millions, he also referred to archaic laws, complex web of taxes and corruption which were given farewell. In the same stretch, demolishing carefully nurtured anti-India narrative orchestrated by Pro-Pakistan lobby, Modi broached revocation of article 370. Mesmerised by the uncharacteristic ease, with which Modi mooted Kashmir issue, audience took to their feet and cheered Modi. Holding the temporary and transient article 370 for depriving the state of development, affirmative action and welfare schemes, and turning it into a fertile breeding ground for separatism and terrorist forces, he necessitated the need for its abrogation. Constitution of India calls for equality. To uphold the constitution, it is but inevitable to revoke the article which discriminated Dalits, women and children.

Decimating the false claims of carrying out this exercise under coercion, he detailed the entire process of open debates in both houses and subsequent voting whereby the bill was passed with a historic two-third majority. Urging the audience to give standing ovation to Indian legislators who were instrumental in integration of Kashmir Modi apprised the US of resounding democratic functioning of India. Astounded by overwhelming approval from the audience, Trump noddingly acknowledged the strategic necessity of stripping Kashmir of its special status. Modi’s resolve to bring development to Kashmir is finding new support from the highly cited NYT. Betting that Modi will not revoke Kashmir autonomy, columnist Roger Cohen asked Pakistan to accept the new reality. This shift of stance is truly noteworthy and it exposed the Pakistan’s insidious propaganda.

Picking up from Trump’s remarks on the “radical Islamic terror”, Modi took shots at Pakistan. Thanking the President for openly speaking about terror threat, Modi seized the opportunity to link 9/11 and 26/11 and lamented perpetrators finding shelter in one country. By swiftly turning focus towards Pakistan’s nefarious activities, in a single swoop Modi called the bluff of Pakistan who roped in disenchanted Sikhs and other minorities to protest article 370 revocation.

Given reliance energy on imports majorly from the Middle East, India is jittery of brewing geopolitical crisis in the region. Energy starved India made no secret of its intentions to partner to energy rich companies in the US. Modi who arrived in Houston the energy capital of the US, met CEOs of energy companies. He oversaw the signing of $2.5billion for buying Tellurian Inc stake in LNG terminal at by India’s Petronet. Indian investment which is expected to create 50,000 jobs should interest Trump who values the ties for job creation potential.

In line his vision of making India a $5 trillion economy, Modi government rolled out economic reforms. To make India competitive, government slashed corporate taxes to attract US business which are attempting to shift businesses in the aftermath of US-China trade war. Additionally, India have put into practice several measures to improve the ease of doing business and sought the partnership of the US energy, investment and infrastructure.

For long, India is ridiculed for punching below its weight. Despite its geostrategic advantage, demography, democratic and pluralistic credentials, clouded by despondency and complacence, India refrained from overarching global reach. Resurrecting the decadence, Modi infused new momentum and energy. Unleashing soft diplomacy and revving up outreach with Indian Diaspora spread across the World, Modi unveiled a fresh chapter in India’s foreign policy. By far, India was always associated with the Third world countries and is considered an inferior cousin by developed countries. India’s steady economic growth and the dynamic leadership changed global perception towards India. Successive Indian leaderships since independence including the post-cold war leaders who advocated strong ties with the US never walked shoulder to shoulder holding hands with American leaders.

For the first time ever, an American President not only attended the event organised by India-Americans for Indian Prime Minister but stayed till the end. India Diaspora which is majorly supports conservative party in India rally behind Liberal left in America. In 2016 Presidential elections, 16% of Indian-American voted for Trump while 77% preferred Hillary Clinton. Intent on improving domestic popularity for 2020 elections, with no major foreign policy to showcase, Trump grabbed the opportunity to assert “The USA loves India”. Aware of Trump’s transactional approach, Modi keen resetting ties with the USA, endorsed Trump’s re-election through his signature campaign slogan “Ab ki baar Trump Sarkar”. To critics it seemed to be unwarranted intervention in US elections, but Modi daringly played the high stakes gamble to mellow down Trump. Reciprocating Modi’s gesture, Trump hailed Indian Diaspora as legal immigrants and dissed illegal migrants.

Trump’s act of self-inviting himself to India and reflecting on growing synergy in defence cooperation and announcement upcoming tri services named “Tiger Triumph” symbolised his pragmatism.

Coming together of Modi and Trump and the visible bonhomie on display will go a long way in blunting the China-Pakistan nefarious stratagems. Above all the unmissable convergence of interests in tackling radical terrorism will invariably weaken Pakistan’s position. With many unprecedented firsts, this mega event will go down the history as a watershed moment in the resetting of Indo-US ties.  

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Second Elections in Israel ends in a stalemate but Netanyahu no longer indispensable

Israel went to polls for the second time in this calendar year. After leaders failed to form a stable government in April elections, snap polls became inevitable. Interestingly, even in second elections none of the parties managed to get a majority. While official presentation of results to President is on September 25^th, unofficial final results point to a stalemate.

Final results are as follows: Blue and White party (Kahol Yahvan) is leading the race with 33 seats closely followed by Netanhayu’s Likud party with 31 seats, Joint List (amalgamation of Arab-parties) with 13 seats is placed in the third position. Ultra-orthodox party Shas has 9; United Torah Judaism -8, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu-8; Right wing Yamina- 7; Labour party of Ben Gurion -6 seats, Leftist Democratic Union-5. Stacking up the numbers, Centre-left bloc leads with 57 seats and right-wing bloc has 55 seats. Right wing parties have fair consensus unlike the centre-leftist bloc where parties are averse to aligning with each other. Leftist Democratic Union has a different take on major issues. Joint List comprises of communists, Islamists and anti-Zionists. The secular Lieberman party with 8 seats is at the pivot of these coalitions.

Israel is a vibrant democracy. Elections are based on proportional representation. It has multi-party system with an electoral threshold of 1% in 1948. In the seven decades of its existence no political party managed to obtain a majority on its own. Alignment a group of three political parties held a brief majority in 1969. Coalition government has been a norm and hallmark of Israeli democracy. Overriding the popular predicament of a fractured mandate as inimical to the progress, tiny Israel has become synonymous to innovation and stellar development. Though the electoral threshold is subsequently raised to 3.25%, none of the political parties ever managed to touch the magical figure of 61 in the 120 member Israeli Legislature, Knesset which is dissolved after every four years.

Till late 1960s the agenda of peaceful resolution dominated the agenda. But with illusion of peace evaporating into thin airs, shaken by the realities of being surrounded by bellicose neighbours, Israelis shunned the narrative of peace pitched by leftists. Since then right wing emerged as a dominant force. Securing borders and national security reigned supreme for Israelis. The belligerent rise of Iran, terror attacks by Hamas, Hezbollah and unravelling of disorder in region (Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Yemen) further fuelled concerns of security. Irrespective of the economic prosperity and any other agenda, Israelis voted for leadership that offered the promise of safety and security. Relentless terror attacks eroded people’s faith in peace accords. Consequently, parties which offered the vision of peaceful coexistence hardly had any takers. Left parties became insignificant. Centrist and right-wing parties more or less had consensus over looming threats from Iran. They have similar economic, diplomatic and military agenda as well. As a result, in the event of fractured mandates, shunning their disagreements, parties stitched coalition, chartered an agenda and fostered national interests.

In November 2018, Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman who resented government’s decision of cease fire with Hamas in Gaza, exemption of 10% ultra-orthodox population from conscription resigned from government. Corruption charges against the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exacerbated the rift. He pulled out from the coalition. The coalition with a wafer-thin majority received a set back after Naftali Bennett (leader of Jewish Home) with 5 seats moved out the government after he was denied the Defence Minister Post. After persuasion he agreed to hold the education minister post. However, continued disagreement hindered governance. As a result, elections which were to be held in November 2019 were advanced to April 2019.

In April elections, Likud party headed by Netanyahu & Blue and White Party led by Benny Gantz were tied with 35 seats each. Coalition parties failed to arrive at an agreement over the passage of the draft law seeking exemptions for Yeshiva studying Torah from conscription. Preventing Gantz from becoming Prime Minister-designate, for the first time ever the Knesset voted to dissolve itself and called for a snap legislature polls on 17^th September 2019.

After the second elections, Israel is again staring at the same political impasse it wanted to avoid. If reports are to be believed, leaders have vowed to avoid a third election. While there hasn’t be major shift in the voting patterns, high voting turnout, especially the increased participation of the Israeli-Arabs has dented the fortunes of Likud party. Netanyahu who ran an extremely divisive campaign is to blame himself for the poor show of the party.  The results increasingly point to Israel’s desperation for a leadership change. An overtone of fatigue towards Netanyahu’s leadership is evident.

Netanyahu the longest Prime Minister of Israel with impeccable credentials is perhaps tallest of the country. A brilliant politician and an astute statesman, he increased the global presence of Israel effortlessly. Forged ties with various countries and even forced Gulf nations into recalibrating their foreign policy towards Israel. Economy boomed under his regime and country turned into a start-up hub. His enviously close relationship with President Trump and American recognition of Golan heights as the annexed territory of Israel, decision of shifting US America Embassy to Jerusalem and the iconic “Deal of the Century” which is to be announced by Trump exemplified Netanyahu’s outstanding capabilities. Israel began to be identified with Netanyahu internationally. Though a hawkish and bellicose leader, he wisely averted war but secured national interests. Obsessed with political survival, he began to indulge in rhetoric. His attempted escalate tensions in Gaza strip as an act of bravado weeks ahead of the election, call for annexation of Jordan Valley, disclosing presence of second nuclear site in Iran and raising feverish pitch against Iran, anti-Arab rhetoric during campaigning, brazen disregard for electoral law and continuing with the campaigning broadcast even when it was to be stopped. As a last-ditch effort, he travelled to Russia and London to burnish his diplomatic credentials. Through his desperate attempts to wrest back Premiership and to insulate himself from judicial indictments he has unravelled himself.

His faults indeed, boosted the electoral prospects of Blue and white party which emerged as the front runner in the September elections. They entered polls with a promise of limiting the term of Prime Minister to eight years or three terms, no immunity from prosecution and indictment from judiciary, preventing anyone convicted of serious charges from holding public post and strengthening national interests through diplomatic initiatives. Suffice to say, the party fought on the agenda of ousting Netanyahu, who is currently serving his fourth term in office is facing three charges-breach of trust, bribery and corruption. By edging out Likud party, Benny Gantz, the former Chief of Staff has successfully toppled indispensability of Netanyahu myth.

In reality Blue and White Party formed by coming together of three parties (Israel Resilience of Benny Gantz, Yesh Atid-Yair Lepid and Telem leader-Moshe Yaalon) doesn’t have any distinct vision for the country. They implicitly promised to follow the policies of Netanyahu But, their singular agenda of coming together is to topple Netanyahu. Between them they have agreed on a rotation of leadership if they lead the government. Accordingly, Gantz would serve for first two years with Lapid as foreign minister and Yaalon as Defense Minister. For the next two years, Lapid would be the Prime Minister, Gantz as Defence Minister.

Netanyahu met leaders of Yamina, Shas and UTJ when results started trickling in and obtained a written agreement for forming a coalition. Falling short of the majority, he then reached out to Gantz for a Unity government. Gantz who unequivocally said no to serving under Netanyahu, agreed to hold talks to avoid being perceived as an intransigent leader. Gantz will not have problem joining hands with right-wing coalition but he doesn’t want to work with Netanyahu. As a precondition, he might as Likud party to chose any other leader. Outsmarting Netanyahu, a seasoned politician Gantz announced that he will serve as Prime Minister first.   Clearly the cards are in Gantz’s hands. Netanyahu and Gantz have time till October 2^nd to form unity government when the President will take a call. It is the day when Netanyahu has a hearing with Attorney General. Meanwhile, reports suggest that President Reuven Rivlin might invite both parties to form government. Also, the Arab parties who never participated in government formation and keen on overthrowing Netanyahu threw their weight behind Gantz.

Clearly, the Israeli elections haven’t offered any solution but have pushed leaders into nerve wrecking negotiations. While Netanyahu can consider inviting Lieberman to join his bloc (55+8), which puts him at risk of saddling a precarious coalition government, the latter is keen on having Gantz on board.  Even today he reportedly held talks with Gantz, while the details are not public, the chances for Netanyahu coming back to power are bleak. Though Netanyahu is trying every trick to be in power, he is now no longer irreplaceable. If parties fail to reach a consensus, Israel unfortunately will be forced to get ready for third elections, extending the political status quo.

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Audacious drone strikes on Saudi oil installations creates global stir

Saturday drone attacks on two Saudi Aramco (Arabian oil Company) processing facilities have triggered unprecedented crisis which is two-fold. Aside the immediate domino effect on the global financial transactions the ramifications on the geopolitical front kept the world in a tizzy.

Aramco the state oil company valued $2 trillion with a net income of $111 billion, the crowning glory of the Saudi Arabia controls around 18% of World’s oil reserves. Ever since America’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Gulf region has been on the edge. Attacks on stranded oil tankers in ports, seizure of tankers in the international waters, drone attacks and counter attacks have intensified. A string of escalations has kept the region on the boil. 

But none of these attacks caused as much havoc as the latest twin strikes on the Saudi oil processing unit at Abqaiq, the World’s largest facility accounting for 7% of the global oil supply and Khurais which produces 1% global supplies. The fear of disruption of crude supplies have sent shock waves across World. The news has been nothing short of a heart ache to oil importing countries. These facilities which process around 8.5 million barrels of crude per day account for 5% of global supplies. Following the attacks, the facilities were immediately closed to assesses the extent of damage. 

Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the strikes and admitted having used 10 drones. Last month Rebels attacked Saudi oil field Shaybah. Since its normal functioning remained unaffected, this hardly made any news. The current strikes on the World’s largest oil processing facility is second attack in succession. While no lives were lost, the fire was quickly brought under control, but 5 million barrels of crude supplies were interrupted. A close analysis of Satellite pictures revealed 17 targeted hits and experts opined that these were carried out by relatively unsophisticated drones. 

Going by the images of damage, US officials argued that attacks were carried from west-north-west direction and not from Houthis who controlled South-West side. Adding weight to the US observations, Iraqi intelligence official told Middle East Eye Network, that strikes were made with Iranian drones from Hashd al-Shaabi bases in South Iraq in retaliation to Riyadh funded Israeli attacks on Iraqi militia. Earlier in August, Israel with American support attacked Irani trained troops, their depots and convoys from the Kurdish Bases controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) killing one and injuring 23 personnel. In line with these claims, Kuwait reported spotting a drone aircraft travelling south hovering over sea and traversing its airspace. But Iraq soon denied usage of its territories for carrying out attacks on another country and assured strict action against perpetrators. Exhausted of long-drawn war Iraq recused itself from this geopolitical muddle.

Without even producing an iota of evidence, US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo pointed fingers at Iran. He lashed out at Iran, “Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia while Rouhani and Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy….Amid the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the World’s energy supply”. These remarks unarguably beefed up the hostilities in the region and threatened the regional peace and stability.  Despite Houthi threats of bringing Saudi to heels, America believed they lacked the capabilities to unleash precision attacks and ascribed strikes as handiwork of Iran. While Saudi refrained from blame game and quietly attacked Yemeni bases, Trump’s upbraided Iran. He tweeted “Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!!!”. 

Iran rejected American accusations and warned America of the safety of its assets within its missiles range. Post departure of John Bolton, America hinted at dropping some sanctions to prepare ground for talks. But the allegations and counter allegation in the wake of strikes in Saudi scuttled scope for potential diplomacy.  Meanwhile, Iranian Prime Minister Hassan Rouhani at a summit in Ankara with Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin supported Houthi’s right to defend. 

Since March 2015, Saudi-led coalition forces have been carrying air strikes on Houthis. Armed conflict between the government forces led by Yemeni President Mansour Hadi and Houthis have pushed Yemen, the poorest nation in the Gulf to the brink to severe humanitarian crisis. Though Iran and Houthis widely contest, the rebels are known to be armed, funded and trained by Iran. Historically, Iran and Saudi have been fighting for regional supremacy and unfortunately Yemen has turned into a fertile battle ground for the traditional animosities. Indeed, perturbed by unrelenting Iranian crisis and Western criticism of Yemen’s war the UAE started pulling out troops. But Saudi with intelligence support from the US is still flexing its muscles in Yemen.

Providing much needed reprieve from the heightened concerns of an armed conflict, Saudi invited international experts and UN officials to participate in investigating the crimes. Initial reports indicated that Iranian weapons were used in attacks. Even Trump changed his stance saying, “I’m somebody that would like not to have war”. Gearing up re-election, unlike his predecessors, Trump keen on disentangling America from global conflicts retreated from his earlier belligerent stance.

In a television address, Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeneni stated that Iran will not hold one on one talks with America. But would consider multilateral discussions if America returns to pre-2015 condition. As of now the possibility of immediate of a military conflict is averted and chances of Iran-America talks are zilch. Trump’s dream of exerting maximum pressure to force Iran into a tougher deal is foreclosed. Iran which has been engineering numerous overt and covert attacks in the Persian Gulf has successfully blocked the oil exports in other nations. While the perpetrator of the devastating strikes is not yet known, global energy supplies are crippled forcing international community to take a stock of the brewing internecine wars in the Middle East. 

Middle East has been source of pivotal global energy supplies. Any crisis in the region is going to have a multitudinous effect on global economy. In so far, conflicts in Middle East sent the oil prices soaring seven times. Trump’s “locked and loaded” remarks, raised concerns of an armed conflict. Current crisis comes at a time, global economies are plagued by slow growth. The markets which opened on Sunday witnessed an 19.5% surge in oil price quickly recovered after Trump assented to release strategic reserves. The sharp spike in oil prices has been first of its kind in past thirty years created panic in global markets. Price of crude oil stabilised at $71.95 per barrel (as of Monday) against $60 last week. Speculations are rife that crude oil might cross $100 mark if Saudi oil facilities fail to resume processing soon.

Acquiescing Trump’s unilateral sanctions, India has zeroed oil imports from Iran since May. To tide over any crisis, India eventually diversified its oil imports with Iraq and Saudi Arabia emerging as its largest oil suppliers. India imports nearly 5 million barrels of oil every day and Saudi accounts for 20% of imports. 

A surge in global oil prices will increase India’s import bill. An increase in oil price by a dollar raises India’s annual import bill by Rs 10,700 crores. This in turn will have an impact on the fiscal deficit. Elevated oil prices will heighten inflationary pressure. Any interruption of oil supplies or massive increase in price will have a major impact on Indian economy bracing a slowdown. Allaying India’s fears in the aftermath of strikes Aramco assured India of reliable oil supply India’s strategic reserves equivalent to imports of 75 days can cushion against immediate fluctuations in oil supplies. Saudi’s Aramco which has 20 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves has announced resumption of production by September end. 

The attacks have come a week after crown prince appointed his brother Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman replacing an experienced engineer Khalid al-Falih as energy minister. While financial analysts are still sceptical of Royal clan’s ability to manage this crisis, the biggest winner in the whole fiasco seems to be Russia. Apparently, taking a dig at America, Putin asked Saudi to buy its S-400s Defence Missile System to protect its people and infrastructure from any kind of attack [As a matter of fact- Saudi inked agreement for purchase of 44Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) Launchers from Lockheed Martin in November 2018]. Unlike Trump whose isolation policy of Iran has earned him the sobriquet of “disrupter-in-chief” Russia which is now slowly increasing its clout by holding Syrian peace talks is seeking to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Also, as the third largest oil producer Russia is seeking to gain from disruption in Saudi oil production.  

Be whatever may, drone attacks on oil installations has shifted India’s focus on revving up counter-drone preparedness.

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Should India be concerned about Pakistan-Israel formal ties?

Since August 5^th Pakistan has been trying every possible trick to internationalise revocation of special status to Kashmir an “internal matter” of India. It marshalled diplomatic corps, pro-Pakistan media agencies, the Diaspora to internationalise the issue and gave a free hand to its strategic assets to stir insurgency in the Kashmir valley. Pakistani leaders gave calls for jihad openly. But all its insidious attempts earned it isolation, embarrassment and censure. Needless to say, Pakistan is losing international credibility. Confirming this view, Pakistani interior Minister Brigadier Ijaz Ahmed Shah in an interview admitted, “The World believes India, not Pakistan”. 

After the international alienation and a muted response from Arab World, Pakistan sought to revamp its foreign policy. Pakistani military establishment which keeps a tight leash on its media allowed journalists to discuss the possibilities of establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. Giving voice to the speculations of changes in foreign policy, an influential Pakistani journalist Kamran Khan on Aug 25^th tweeted, “High time Pakistan counters nefarious Indian designs with bold foreign policy moves. Our deepest friends making fresh alignments. No permanent friends no enemies. Why can’t we openly debate pros cons of opening direct and overt channels of communication with the state of Israel”. As anticipated the tweet triggered a debate on social media. The message has been an attempt to reshape the opinion of Pakistani public who were fed with generous doses of anti-Semitism. In fact, Pakistani mosques regularly hold sermons and prayers calling for destruction of Israel. 

Paradigm shift in Islamabad’s diplomacy has in reckoning for some time. Last year October, there was a buzz about an Israeli flight landing in Islamabad. Pakistan quickly dismissed this report and rejected any plans of secret talks between both countries. The event came to light after an Israeli journalist tweeted about emergency landing of an Israeli flight traveling enroute Amman to Islamabad. Around the same time, Pakistan’s lone Jew urged government to permit him to travel to Jerusalem on pilgrimage. Pakistani passport holders can travel to any country without any hitch but disallowed to visit Israel. Interestingly, by January 2019, Pakistan government granted him permission to visit Jerusalem. This clearly reflected Pakistan’s softening of stance towards Israel. The gradual levitation of the Muslim World towards Israel in recent times together with stable diplomatic relations established by Egypt and Jordan promoted Pakistan to recalibrate its Israeli policy. Besides, India’s precise surgical airstrikes on Balakot terror camps with the Israeli Spice-2000 bombs triggered Islamabad’s interest in Israel who believed, “(Modi) Hindutva Zionists are the attack dogs but their real handlers sit in Tel Aviv”.

Since its inception, Pakistan considered formal diplomatic ties with Israel a taboo. Also unstinted support to Palestine and remained sympathetic to its movement. This came in the way of cultivating ties with the Jewish state. Islamabad never lost an opportunity drawing parallels between India and Israel and portraying them as aggressors occupying territories. While Pakistan and Israel stand as tall examples of nation states carved out of religious nationalism, Pakistan opposed Israel at UNGA in October 1947. In sharp contrast, Israeli Prime Minister David Ben Gurion sent a telegram to Mohammed Ali Jinnah after Declaration of Independence. But Pakistan didn’t respond. Pakistan backed OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) formed in 1969 that opposed Israel and in the Arab-Israeli wars in 1967 and 1973. 

At times Pakistan took balancing position towards Israel. In 1979 when Egypt was expelled from OIC for its diplomatic relations with Israel, Pakistan facilitated its re-admission into the group. Reportedly, in 1980s Pakistan’s Inter State Intelligence (ISI) and Israeli Intelligence Agency Mossad worked together in CIA led-operations against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Paradoxically, while it encouraged people to join Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) to fight against Israel, it asked PLO to recognise Israel in 1986. Post Oslo Accord when Israel pulled out of Gaza strip in 1993, it is believed that Pakistan mulled establishing ties with Israel. Pakistan’s realistic approach on Israel was spurred by India’s decision of establishing official ties with Jerusalem in 1992. 

Pakistan which is a bunch of contradictions shifted its positions constantly. In 1994, Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto reportedly cancelled her visit to Gaza to avoid any coordination with Israeli officials. While officials confirm that Pakistani and Israeli officials held secret talks earlier, it was only in 2003 President Pervez Musharraf openly advocated for diplomatic talks with Israel. In 2005 for the first time Pakistani Foreign Minister Khursheed Kasuri shook hands with his Israeli counterpart Silvan Shalom at Ankara. But this breakthrough failed to produce a thaw in the traditional hostility of Pakistan. Islamists who wield political clout opposed Pakistan’s foreign policy towards Israel. Military establishment steeped in Islamic culture was against opening up official communication with Israel. Successors of Musharraf, puny puppets of the establishment had no stomach for recalibrating Pakistan’s Israeli policy. 

Pakistan’s rejuvenated interest in Israel stems from the latter’s increased acceptance and waning of global interest in Palestine. For all its discrepancies International community embroiled with other disputes gave cold shoulder to Palestine movement. Burgeoning hostilities between the Sunni bloc and Iran brought them even closer to Israel which fights Tehran’s terrorism tooth and nail. UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia which are seeking cooperation and intelligence sharing to take in Iran are making no secret of their ties with Israel. Last year, Israeli Prime Minister made an official visit to Oman. UAE hosted Israeli officials. Crown Prince in an interview welcomed America’s decision of shifting embassy to Jerusalem. Bahrain’s foreign minister Khalid bin Ahmed al Khalif defended Israeli air strikes against Iran in Syria. Arab elites are warming up to Israel. Central Asian Muslim countries are cultivating ties with Israel. A majority of Latin American countries have forged ties with Israel. Diplomatic ties with Israel are no longer kosher.  Recent reports even talk of Saudi plans of setting up embassy in Jerusalem lending more credence to Israeli claims to the historical city. Normalisation of ties with Israel is now order of the day. Above all, India’s growing conventional weapons superiority and the acquisition of advanced technologies denied by the US from Israel serves as a compelling case for Pakistan to open diplomatic channels of communication with Israel.

Pakistan realises the importance of staying in good books of the US to be strategically relevant. By cultivating ties with Israel Pakistan can influence the powerful lobby of US Jews, who tow an anti-Pakistani stand. Pakistan will also stand to gain from military ties with Israel. But given Pakistan’s crippling economic crisis and international reputation of being the “the most dangerous of all the countries” as enunciated by the US former defence secretary Jim Mattis in his new book Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead, Pakistan may not be an interesting bet for Israel. While there is perception that ties with Pakistan can be beneficial in dealing with Iran, Islamabad is duplicitous and can’t be trusted. Pakistan adopts a cautions approach towards Iran. In 2015 it turned down Saudi request to join troops in Yemen. Also, both Pakistan and Iran have common interests in Baluchistan and aspire to have an influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan which relies on Iran for concessionary oil may be averse to be on a collision course with its Western neighbour. Pakistan is full of paradoxes. This makes it an untrustworthy friend.

But a recognition by Pakistan will enhance Israel’s legitimacy. Israel will respond positively respond to Pakistan’s overtures. Overt diplomatic communications with any Muslim country big or small can erode religious dissensions. Israel which is keen on normalising ties with all countries might welcome any friendly call.

Islamabad always depicted Israel as an imperialist state. At a time when Pakistan made fight for Kashmir its survival issue getting public acceptance for ties with Israel who supplied weapons to India for Balakot strikes will be a nightmare. In 2002, overriding popular sentiments Pakistani tennis player Aisam-ul-Haq Qureshi partnered with Israeli Amir Hadad at Wimbledon and reached third round. This created a stir in Pakistan which even out blackouts Israel players in Olympics. For decades, Pakistan churned out conspiracy theories about Israel. It will be difficult to overcome Islamic resistance. For all the debated in political circles on formal ties with Israel, the current political dispensation which lacks credibility, astuteness and relevance can hardly muster courage to take any iconic step in that direction. India which enjoys a robust strategic partnership with Israel shouldn’t lose sleep over the current discourse.

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Russian Far East becomes bed rock for robust Indo-Russian Partnership

On his 36-hour visit to Russian Far East Prime Minister Modi held 20^th Indo-Russian Annual Summit Meet, participated in the 5^th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) as Chief Guest at Vladivostok. Modi’s Russia visit has two important aspects to it. Having discussed India’s wide ranging cooperation with Russia here https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/modi-putin-expand-the-gamut-of-indo-russian-cooperation. Will switch focus to India’s engagement with Russia’s Far East and the geopolitical implications of the same.

Modi’s iconic visit has many firsts to its merit- Narendra Modi became India’s first Prime minister to visit Russian Far East, for the first time India has extended line of credit to a specific region of a country which culminated in the unveiling of “Act Far East” Doctrine as well. In April Narendra Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to be conferred the highest civilian award of Russia-the order of the Holy Andrews Apostle the first. But Modi wasn’t bestowed the honor during his current visit as it is awarded in a special ceremony held at Kremlin. Russia’s highest state decoration is a recognition to the exceptional services rendered by Modi in fostering Special and Privileged Partnership between the countries. Inviting India to be a chief guest at the EEF is a testament to India’s growing global profile and rising prominence in geostrategic calculus.

Russia which spans two continents is a predominant power in the Eurasian landmass with Pacific maritime boundaries.  Russian Far East a part of Siberia is the eastern most territory which extends between Lake Baikal to Pacific Ocean. It shares land boundaries with China, South Korea and Mongolia; and maritime boundaries with Japan and the US. Europe’s declining markets and the alienation by the West post 2014 prompted Russia to evolve a strategy for Asia, the engines for growth to resurrect its economy. Russian began actively engaging with potential players- South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam. Facing the predicament of unreliable Trump’s policies, seeking to resolve territorial disputes with Russia South Korea and Japan actively responded to Russian overtures. Unrelenting sanctions regime, geopolitical and economic compulsions has driven China into Russia’s arms. Soon, China became its largest investor and trading partner. Russia-Chinese cooperation intensified.

Keeping historical hostilities at bay, Russia closely allied with China, advocated BRI, supported Chinese initiatives and adopted even the controversial Huawei. But China’s growing stranglehold over Central Asia Republics (CAR) irked Russia. As an erstwhile superpower keen on reclaiming its past glory Russia refuses to be second fiddle to the Middle Kingdom. Russia is discomfited by China’s relentless aggressive posturing. To contain China’s expansive penetration into Eurasian region under check, Russia as a founding member facilitated India’s entry into Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).  Akin to the US, which prefers to hoist India as a strategic counter to China, Russia is buttressing India as a balance to China’s expanding influence in the region. Also, worried about India’s closer engagement with the US under Indo-Pacific construct and apprehensive of America’s foreign policies that can force India from buying military supplies Russia reenergized its engagement with India.

Instituted in 2015, Russia holds annual Eastern Economic Forum Summit at Vladivostok to promote foreign investment in the Far East. Till far, China is the biggest investor in the Far East. To reduce Chinese dependence and curtail its sway Russia opened the region for investments. So far 17 countries invested in the region. Russia unveiled investor friendly policies, established 20 Special Economic Zones (SEZ) and developed five free ports in the resource-rich Far East. Moscow simplified visa issuance procedure for 18 countries including India to the Far East. Due to Russia’s concerted efforts, this region alone registered 4% economic growth and received nearly 30% of total investments. Hostile climatic conditions, frozen lands and nine long winter months pose greatest hurdles in the development of this region which is scantly populated. To take advantage of India’s sizeable demographic dividend and skilled manpower Russia has invited India as the Chief Guest of EEF.

The Far East is Russia’s gateway to the Pacific and this region reinforces Russia’s Asian identity. Speaking at the EEF, Modi recalled India was the first country in the World to open consulate at Vladivostok and announced $1billion line of credit towards the development of the region. Modi said Far East will become bedrock of strong Indo-Russian ties. Unlike the China’s BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) that threatens nations into a debt trap, India’s developmental aid will be viewed favorably. To foster development, countries brought about paradigm shift in economic diplomacy by promoting active collaboration between private companies as against set precedent of intergovernmental agreements. Private entities of countries signed 35 agreements worth $5 billion. South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Mongolia, India has set up stalls at EEF.

In the run up to the EEF, Modi encouraged the chief ministers of BJP ruled states to travel to the Far East along with business leaders to assess scope of investments. Indian Chief Ministers held talks with 11 governors of Far East to explore more opportunities. To boost Indian engagement Modi unveiled “Act Far East” policy and asserted, “Let us deepen the bond between India and Russia even further. India is proud of the achievements of the Indian Diaspora. I am sure in the Russian Far East too the Indian Diaspora will make active contribution towards the region’s progress”. Modi assured that partnership between rapidly growing India and its talent with the region is “historic-one plus one equals to eleven opportunity”. With leaders of Japan and Malaysia on  the stage Modi stated, “Our relations in this region will have a strong foundation of rule based order, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and abstaining from interfering in the internal affairs of country”.

Along the sidelines of EEF, Prime Minister held talks with Japanese President Shinzo Abe, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed and Mongolian President Khaltmaagiin Battulga. Attended the Far East City festival with Putin and a Judo championship event.

Another important facet of EEF is expanding cooperation with countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Russia never openly endorses the Indo-Pacific construct promoted by “The Quad” and by consequence doesn’t accept Free, Open, Inclusive Indo-Pacific (FOIP). It religiously sticks to connation of “Asia Pacific” like China. But much to the chagrin of China, the joint statement after the summit meet read, “India and Russia as stake holders in this common space agreed to intensify consultations on complementarities between integration and developmental initiatives in greater Eurasian space and regions of India and Pacific Oceans”, indicating a tacit acceptance of FOIP. This alignment of Indo-Pacific and Asia-Pacific is a phenomenal feat.

India a resident power of Indian Ocean has hardly any presence in the Pacific. Russia which is a strong power in the Pacific is insignificant in Indian Ocean. Besides strengthening maritime cooperation India’s extensive engagement with Russian Far East will make them responsible stakeholders in the maritime security of Pacific and Indian Oceans respectively. The partnership can bring semblance of peace and stability in conflict prone maritime commons and ensure free navigation. Also, Russian Far East can become India’s gateway for the North East Asian markets.

To sustain global rivalries, countries are adopting hedging strategies to counter expansionist aspirations of major powers. Driven by common interests’ countries are coming together. New security arrangements and alignments are becoming the order of the day. EEF provided a unique opportunity for India and Russia to expand avenues of cooperation to withstand turbulent geopolitics.

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Modi-Putin expand the gamut of Indo-Russian cooperation

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his first bilateral visit to Russia in his second tenure infused new energy into Indo-Russian longstanding partnership. Expanding the scope of ties which have been largely directional and centred on defence cooperation both leaders explored various avenues to strengthen the partnership. After the formal consolidation of the strategic partnership between the countries in 2000 both countries regularly held annual summit meets. Giving fillip to the longstanding ties, in 2010 countries elevated partnership to “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership”.

Economic sanctions imposed by the West post Crimean annexation badly crippled Russian economy. Since 2014 Russia economy is in doldrums. Keen on pulling the nation out of the economic stagnation, Russia has turned its focus towards developing the Far East, a resource-region, double the size of India. The region has become a quintessential part of Putin’s Pivot to Asia strategy. To steer its development, Russia invited investments from 17 countries. Underscoring the importance of the region, President Vladimir Putin hosted 20^th Indo-Russian Annual Summit Meet at Vladivostok.

After receiving Modi at Vladivostok, both leaders spent quality time together in a boat on their way to Zvezda Ship Building Complex. As a special gesture, Putin accompanied Modi to Ship building complex and showed him the most sophisticated ice breakers used in Arctic explorations and oil tankers that deliver hydrocarbons to India. With economic cooperation high on the agenda of bilateral talks, a 50-member delegation of Indian businessmen also travelled to Far East.

Since independence, India heavily depended on Russian defence purchases. Nearly 70% of Indian military hardware is of Russian origin. Russia has been India’s top most defence supplier for decades. Converting the buyer-seller relationship to co-production countries have strengthened defence cooperation. But India’s diversification of defence purchases and the volatile geopolitics created wrinkles in partnership. While India drifted towards the US ratcheting up economic and defence cooperation, Russia eventually got drawn into Chinese orbit and began eyeing Pakistani markets for defence exports. Western sanctions on Russia and its burgeoning economic reliance on Beijing further created some kinks in the partnership. Amidst turbulent geopolitical realignments, India asserting strategic autonomy made every attempt to strengthen ties with its old strategic partner. Reaffirming its trust, with Damocles Sword of the US sanctions hanging, India sealed an agreement for the purchase of Russia’s S-400 Triumpf Missile System last year. Defence cooperation has been central pillar of Indo-Russian partnership. To fortify strategic partnership, leaders focussed on “reaching new heights of cooperation through trust and partnership” at the 20^th Indo-Russian Annual summit.

After reviewing the progress of the bilateral talks during the delegation level talks leaders prioritised strong and multifaceted trade cooperation to expand the range of Indo-Russian ties. Stressing on the need for increasing the bilateral trade which hovered around $11 billion, they set an ambitious target of $30 billion for 2025. Thus far, Indo-Russian trade and investment has been between government entities. In a marked departure from the past to boost investments, governments began encouraging the participation and collaboration between private companies. India invited Russian companies to be part of “Make in India” initiative and Russia is encouraging Indian investments in the Far East region. To facilitate seamless trade countries are working towards streamlining and standardising various procedures. Leaders proposed trading agreement between India and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and began holding annual strategic economic dialogues.

Post 2014 Russia carried three quarters of trade in Rouble and in line with its sentiments, both countries agreed to promote mutual settlements in national currencies. To foster India’s investments Russia has recently opened Far East Investment and Export Agency in Mumbai. Further to this initiative, Moscow welcomed a delegation of Indian Chief Ministers to explore various avenues of cooperation. China holds a sway in the Far East region and an uncomfortable Russia is looking towards India to supply skilled manpower.  Russia is largest producer of diamonds and India’s diamond cutting companies which moved to Far East are working in tandem enhancing its marketability. Having overcome the tyranny of distance, both countries stand benefited. By creating investor friendly atmosphere Russia is attracting private investors to the region. Taking a call, Indian Coal mining companies began operations in Far East. In a bid to mainstream Far East in 2017, Russia held joint exercise with India at Vladivostok.

Boosting cooperation in energy sector, countries agreed on geological exploration including Arctic region and joint development of oil fields in India and Russia. To this end, countries signed a road map for cooperation in hydrocarbons for five years and explored the possibility of transporting LNG through the Northern Sea Route and oil pipelines.

Connectivity has been another bottle neck in Indo-Russian trade. Aside, expanding direct passenger and cargo flights, countries decided to use Vladivostok to Chennai sea route to cut down time of travel to 24 days from 40 days. This route will potentially bring much needed peace and balance to the South China Sea region. Strengthening the five-decade long space cooperation, Russian Space Agency Roscosmos, offered to train four Indian Astronauts for India’s first Manned Mission- Gaganyaan for fifteen months.

Another important facet of Indo-Russian strategic partnership is military cooperation. India will be part of Russia’s multinational military exercises Tsentr, in mid-September. Besides, Central Asian countries and China, some reports hinted at Pakistan’s participation. Despite the ongoing hostilities with Pakistan underlining strong military links with Russia, India will take part in joint drills. Upgrading defence cooperation countries agreed to co-produce the military spares for Russian origin weaponry under the Make in India initiative. In all, countries exchanged 14 MoUs in the areas of space cooperation, trade and investments, coproduction of military equipment, road transport, maritime connectivity, infrastructure, hydrocarbon cooperation and others.

In an oblique reference to Pakistan, Modi asserted that India and Russia are against any external interference in internal matters of member countries. Both countries stressed the primacy of international law, need for multilateralism and condemned terrorism in all forms and manifestation. Leaders called for an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation and extended support to efforts for complete restoration of peace in Afghanistan.

Given the looming geopolitical uncertainties, development of entire gamut of India- Russian ties is a top priority of foreign policies of both countries. Keen on expanding scope of cooperation, leaders have explored every possible avenue to cultivate ties and increase engagement.

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