Israel went to polls for the second
time in this calendar year. After leaders failed to form a stable government in
April elections, snap polls became inevitable. Interestingly, even in second
elections none of the parties managed to get a majority. While official
presentation of results to President is on September 25th,
unofficial final results point to a stalemate.
Final results are as follows: Blue
and White party (Kahol Yahvan) is leading the race with 33 seats closely
followed by Netanhayu’s Likud party with 31 seats, Joint List (amalgamation of Arab-parties)
with 13 seats is placed in the third position. Ultra-orthodox party Shas has 9;
United Torah Judaism -8, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu-8; Right wing
Yamina- 7; Labour party of Ben Gurion -6 seats, Leftist Democratic Union-5.
Stacking up the numbers, Centre-left bloc leads with 57 seats and right-wing
bloc has 55 seats. Right wing parties have fair consensus unlike the
centre-leftist bloc where parties are averse to aligning with each other.
Leftist Democratic Union has a different take on major issues. Joint List
comprises of communists, Islamists and anti-Zionists. The secular Lieberman
party with 8 seats is at the pivot of these coalitions.
Israel is a vibrant democracy.
Elections are based on proportional representation. It has multi-party system
with an electoral threshold of 1% in 1948. In the seven decades of its
existence no political party managed to obtain a majority on its own. Alignment
a group of three political parties held a brief majority in 1969. Coalition
government has been a norm and hallmark of Israeli democracy. Overriding the
popular predicament of a fractured mandate as inimical to the progress, tiny
Israel has become synonymous to innovation and stellar development. Though the
electoral threshold is subsequently raised to 3.25%, none of the political
parties ever managed to touch the magical figure of 61 in the 120 member Israeli
Legislature, Knesset which is dissolved after every four years.
Till late 1960s the agenda of
peaceful resolution dominated the agenda. But with illusion of peace evaporating
into thin airs, shaken by the realities of being surrounded by bellicose neighbours,
Israelis shunned the narrative of peace pitched by leftists. Since then right
wing emerged as a dominant force. Securing borders and national security
reigned supreme for Israelis. The belligerent rise of Iran, terror attacks by
Hamas, Hezbollah and unravelling of disorder in region (Syria, Libya, Lebanon,
Yemen) further fuelled concerns of security. Irrespective of the economic
prosperity and any other agenda, Israelis voted for leadership that offered the
promise of safety and security. Relentless terror attacks eroded people’s faith
in peace accords. Consequently, parties which offered the vision of peaceful
coexistence hardly had any takers. Left parties became insignificant. Centrist
and right-wing parties more or less had consensus over looming threats from
Iran. They have similar economic, diplomatic and military agenda as well. As a
result, in the event of fractured mandates, shunning their disagreements,
parties stitched coalition, chartered an agenda and fostered national
interests.
In November 2018, Defence Minister
Avigdor Lieberman who resented government’s decision of cease fire with Hamas
in Gaza, exemption of 10% ultra-orthodox population from conscription resigned from
government. Corruption charges against the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
exacerbated the rift. He pulled out from the coalition. The coalition with a
wafer-thin majority received a set back after Naftali Bennett (leader of Jewish
Home) with 5 seats moved out the government after he was denied the Defence
Minister Post. After persuasion he agreed to hold the education minister post.
However, continued disagreement hindered governance. As a result, elections
which were to be held in November 2019 were advanced to April 2019.
In April elections, Likud party
headed by Netanyahu & Blue and White Party led by Benny Gantz were tied
with 35 seats each. Coalition parties failed to arrive at an agreement over the
passage of the draft law seeking exemptions for Yeshiva studying Torah from
conscription. Preventing Gantz from becoming Prime Minister-designate, for the
first time ever the Knesset voted to dissolve itself and called for a snap
legislature polls on 17th September 2019.
After the second elections, Israel
is again staring at the same political impasse it wanted to avoid. If reports are
to be believed, leaders have vowed to avoid a third election. While there
hasn’t be major shift in the voting patterns, high voting turnout, especially
the increased participation of the Israeli-Arabs has dented the fortunes of Likud
party. Netanyahu who ran an extremely divisive campaign is to blame himself for
the poor show of the party. The results
increasingly point to Israel’s desperation for a leadership change. An overtone
of fatigue towards Netanyahu’s leadership is evident.
Netanyahu the longest Prime
Minister of Israel with impeccable credentials is perhaps tallest of the
country. A brilliant politician and an astute statesman, he increased the
global presence of Israel effortlessly. Forged ties with various countries and
even forced Gulf nations into recalibrating their foreign policy towards
Israel. Economy boomed under his regime and country turned into a start-up hub.
His enviously close relationship with President Trump and American recognition
of Golan heights as the annexed territory of Israel, decision of shifting US
America Embassy to Jerusalem and the iconic “Deal of the Century” which is to
be announced by Trump exemplified Netanyahu’s outstanding capabilities. Israel
began to be identified with Netanyahu internationally. Though a hawkish and
bellicose leader, he wisely averted war but secured national interests.
Obsessed with political survival, he began to indulge in rhetoric. His attempted
escalate tensions in Gaza strip as an act of bravado weeks ahead of the
election, call for annexation of Jordan Valley, disclosing presence of second
nuclear site in Iran and raising feverish pitch against Iran, anti-Arab
rhetoric during campaigning, brazen disregard for electoral law and continuing
with the campaigning broadcast even when it was to be stopped. As a last-ditch
effort, he travelled to Russia and London to burnish his diplomatic
credentials. Through his desperate attempts to wrest back Premiership and to
insulate himself from judicial indictments he has unravelled himself.
His faults indeed, boosted the
electoral prospects of Blue and white party which emerged as the front runner
in the September elections. They entered polls with a promise of limiting the
term of Prime Minister to eight years or three terms, no immunity from
prosecution and indictment from judiciary, preventing anyone convicted of
serious charges from holding public post and strengthening national interests
through diplomatic initiatives. Suffice to say, the party fought on the agenda
of ousting Netanyahu, who is currently serving his fourth term in office is
facing three charges-breach of trust, bribery and corruption. By edging out
Likud party, Benny Gantz, the former Chief of Staff has successfully toppled
indispensability of Netanyahu myth.
In reality Blue and White Party
formed by coming together of three parties (Israel Resilience of Benny Gantz,
Yesh Atid-Yair Lepid and Telem leader-Moshe Yaalon) doesn’t have any distinct
vision for the country. They implicitly promised to follow the policies of
Netanyahu But, their singular agenda of coming together is to topple Netanyahu.
Between them they have agreed on a rotation of leadership if they lead the
government. Accordingly, Gantz would serve for first two years with Lapid as
foreign minister and Yaalon as Defense Minister. For the next two years, Lapid
would be the Prime Minister, Gantz as Defence Minister.
Netanyahu met leaders of Yamina,
Shas and UTJ when results started trickling in and obtained a written agreement
for forming a coalition. Falling short of the majority, he then reached out to
Gantz for a Unity government. Gantz who unequivocally said no to serving under
Netanyahu, agreed to hold talks to avoid being perceived as an intransigent
leader. Gantz will not have problem joining hands with right-wing coalition but
he doesn’t want to work with Netanyahu. As a precondition, he might as Likud
party to chose any other leader. Outsmarting Netanyahu, a seasoned politician
Gantz announced that he will serve as Prime Minister first. Clearly the cards are in Gantz’s hands.
Netanyahu and Gantz have time till October 2nd to form unity
government when the President will take a call. It is the day when Netanyahu
has a hearing with Attorney General. Meanwhile, reports suggest that President
Reuven Rivlin might invite both parties to form government. Also, the Arab
parties who never participated in government formation and keen on overthrowing
Netanyahu threw their weight behind Gantz.
Clearly, the Israeli elections
haven’t offered any solution but have pushed leaders into nerve wrecking
negotiations. While Netanyahu can consider inviting Lieberman to join his bloc
(55+8), which puts him at risk of saddling a precarious coalition government,
the latter is keen on having Gantz on board. Even today he reportedly held talks with
Gantz, while the details are not public, the chances for Netanyahu coming back
to power are bleak. Though Netanyahu is trying every trick to be in power, he
is now no longer irreplaceable. If parties fail to reach a consensus, Israel
unfortunately will be forced to get ready for third elections, extending the
political status quo.
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