Driven by Caliphate ambitions and Hegemonic Expansionism, Erdogan is the New Disrupter-in-Chief of the Region

 

Global world order is experiencing a geopolitical churn and an ongoing face-off between the NATO allies in East Mediterranean Sea aptly portrays this new reality. On August 12^th Turkish frigate collided with Greece ship escalating the tensions in the region. While Turkey refused to acknowledge the damage suffered by its vessel, the incident led to further fortification of the region with aerial and maritime forces. Denouncing a maritime demarcation agreement between Greece and Egypt a day ahead of the scheduled negotiations with Turkey flared up tensions in the region. Ostensibly, the dispute has been about Turkey exploring the contested waters for gas deposits.

As per 2010, US Geological survey study, an estimated 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 122 trillion cubic feet of gas deposits can be recovered from the Levant basin of East Mediterranean Sea¹. Since then countries in the region indulged in a mad rush for exploring the energy deposits in collaboration with international oil companies. Soon, Israel discovered a gas reserve, Leviathan and Tamar, Italian Oil giant Eni discovered Zohr natural gas deposits off Egypt coast and Cyprus found oil fields, Aphrodite, Glacus and Calypso. Zohr and Leviathan met the domestic market demands and become focal points of cooperation. Forewarned of a potential conflict in the aftermath of exploration expeditions Greece, Egypt, Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA) and Israel signed maritime deal demarcating their EEZs (Exclusive Economic Zone). But Turkey refused to accept GCA’s claims. In 1974 Turkey intervened in Greek Cypriot coup in Northern Cyprus and eventually evicted the Greek Cypriots. Soon Turkish Cypriots migrated to the region and established their claims over the region and called it Turkish Republic of Norther Cyprus (TRNC) by 1983. Baring Turkey, no nation recognised this defacto state. In 2000s Turkey strongly opposed GCA’s attempts to licence the continental shelf for oil exploration and asked it to stop oil exploration until Cyprus issue is resolved. Ankara demanded a joint commission to manage the gas fields by respective states. But with no signs of ironing out differences and arriving at logical resolution of the dispute, GCA went ahead with its exploration plans.

In January Greece, Cyprus and Israel signed a deal to build a 1900km long undersea pipeline or EastMed pipeline bypassing Turkey intended to deliver 10billion cubic metres (bcm) natural gas per year to Europe via Italy. Turkey opposed the deal and suggested that there is no need for EastMed line as trans-Anatolian natural gas pipeline (TANAP) from Azerbaijan to Europe passing through Turkey already exists. TANAP strengthened Turkey’s role as the regional energy hub. Conceiving the EastMed Pipeline as Turko-sceptic, President Erdogan signed a deal with Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) demarcating the Libyan and Turkish continental shelves in the Mediterranean Sea. This region overlapped with the EEZs of Cyprus and Greece and spanned the path of the proposed EastMed pipeline. With this unilateral demarcation, Turkey plans to derail the proposed EastMed pipeline project.

On the other hand, to overcome the challenges of laying pipeline 3km below the surface and stretching over the quake prone region requiring prodigious investment of $6 to $7 billion, countries -Israel, Cyprus, Greece, Egypt, Jordan, Palestine formed the East Mediterranean Gas Forum. Since French and American companies have been major stake holders in the exploration process, France applied for membership and American for Observer status of this forum nick named as “OPEC of Mediterranean gas” with headquarters at Cairo.

Turkish-Libyan maritime accord has potentially the inflated the nascent rivalries. All the littorals in the Mediterranean opposed Turkey’s accord. EU which sides with Greece and Cyprus denounced it. Keen on retaining a key hold as an important transit and trading hub an isolated Turkey cemented its ties with GNA of Libya ². 

Greece and Turkey were at war over the uninhabited Aegan Island which was stalled by American intervention. Turkey’s ongoing feud over refugee issue is well known. Turkey’s relations with Israel soured after Turkey attempted to ship supplies breaking the blockade of Gaza in 2010. Erdogan strongly supported Muslim Brotherhood leader Egyptian President Morsi who was unceremoniously removed from power. Under Morsi, Egypt became a strategic ally of Turkey. With his accusations of an orchestrated coup, Erdogan riled the Arab countries.

Having miffed the US through the purchase of S-400 from Russia despite being a NATO member, Turkey has nowhere to go for support. US not only imposed sanctions on Turkey but stalled the purchase of F-35s. Qatar is the only ally Turkey can look for. But owing to Qatar Petroleum’s close links to Exxon Mobil which surveyed Cyprus shores, Qatar is now tied ³. Isolated Turkey is now adopting an assertive foreign policy. In December 2019, as an indirect approval of Cyprus explorations in East Mediterranean Sea, the US lifted arms embargo on Nicosia.

Promising military assistance to Islamic militia government headed by Fayez-al-Serraj in Libya who is in conflict with Libyan National Army (LNA) General Khalifa Haftar, Turkey clinched a maritime agreement with Libya. France which has oil interests in Libya and believes Haftar as a bulwark against the rising Islamic movement in Mali supported Haftar, aided by the UAE, Egypt, Jordan and Russia. Aside, serious objections over Erdogan’s growing authoritarianism, France is terribly miffed with Turkey for disrupting French, British and American forces from aiding the Kurdish forces is now playing an active role in regional conflict which threatens to upstage peace of North African as well. In January, Turkey deployed forces, Syrian mercenaries, jihadists, sent arms and ammunition to halt Haftar’s offensive. By halting the d Haftar’s aggression through timely intervention, Turkey irrevocably peeved all the countries backing him.

Turkey is highly dependent on oil imports and majorly imports oil from Russia, Iraq, US and Azerbaijan. But Turkey fell out with Russia over Syria. While Russia is still shipping oil to Turkey, now both parties are on the opposite sides in the Libyan issue. Turkey can get oil without Russian interference from Israel, Iraqi Kurdistan and Israel. Though Israel and Turkey have strong trading relations despite the rifts, a desperate Turkey has intensified its oil exploration exercise in the region. Cyprus, Greece, France, UAE, Egypt, Israel grouped into counter the aggression of Turkey.

Intensifying its operations under the guise of Seismic survey, Turkey disregarded international laws and infringed the EEZs of the countries. Turkish drilling ships made incursions into Cypriot waters and around Kastellorizo of Greece but close to Turkey. During the course of these explorations, Turkey’s Oruc Reis had a nasty collision with Greek frigate Limnos⁴. Greece took serious objections to Turkish incursions asserting that each of the small islands of Greece are entitled with their EEZ and Turkey a non-covenant of UNCLOS refused to accept the international conventions.

Turkey’s hegemonic operations and scramble for energy sources in the East Mediterranean is underscored by the doctrine of Blue Homeland or Mavi Vatan developed by Admiral Cem Gurdeniz in 2006 ⁵. Seeking to expand its Blue Water Navy, Turkey established naval bases in North Cyprus, Libya, Qatar, Somalia and Suakin of Sudan (to expand influence in the Red Sea). Together with Qatar, Turkey positioned itself in Horn of Africa as well to compete against UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Reprimanding Turkey’s drilling activities off Cyprus, EU imposed sanctions and withheld funds worth millions of Euros in February⁶. Now, to counter Turkish incursions, France has increased its naval presence in the region and held joint military exercises with Cyprus, Greece and Italy. While UAE sent four F-16s to participate in the exercises. In response Turkey has announced ‘live fire’ exercises in the East Mediterranean on September 1^st and 2^{nd 7}.  

Erdogan’s authoritarianism, brazen disregard for international rules, aggressive oil exploration pursuits in the region claimed by other nations bears close resemblances to the hegemonic expansionism of President Xi in South China Sea. Comparisons don’t end here. Reinventing its Revanchism, with plans of turning Turkey into a global power, Erdogan called for revision of 1923 Treaty of Lausanne on his first visit to Greece in 2017. Stating that some clauses in the Treaty are not clear and it must be revisited, Erdogan showed new maps on Turkish Television with borders of Turkey extending into areas which include present day Greece, Bulgaria, Armenia, Iraq and Syria. In 2019, Turkish Interior Minister claimed Northern Syria is part of Turkey and justified sending of Turkish troops into Syrian territory after American exit⁸. In collusion with Syrian National Army, Turkey is ruling parts of Syria where Lira is used for transactions.

As per latest reports, Turkey found 320 billion cubic meters of gas deposits in Black Sea which are available for use by 2023⁹. But experts believe that this amount is insignificant to mitigate Turkey’s economic woes. Hard hit by Covid, Turkey is struggling to manage balance of payments, plummeting Lira, high unemployment, slump in investments, tourism and declining growth. Domestic subjects and the opposition have been resentful of Turkey’s poor economic outlook.

To divert public attention, Erdogan prevailed on the conversion of Hagia Sophia into a Mosque. Originally a Byzantine Church built in 537 AD by Roman Emperor Justinian I, it was converted into a Mosque by the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II in 1453. In 1934 Turkey founder President Mustafa Kemal Ataturk who is secular by nature converted it into a Museum. This was declared as UNESCO heritage site in 1985. While Erdogan managed to calm public anger through Islamization appeal, he deeply offended the West and Greece. Not content with playing the Islam card to woo the domestic audience, Erdogan now converted a 4^th Chora Church or Church of Holy Saviour into mosque at the height of the geopolitical tensions in the region ¹⁰. Pandering to nationalists and conservatives, Erdogan has been slowly erasing all the reminiscences of the Byzantine past and altering churches into Mosques. Making up for the inept governance and rampant abuse of power, Erdogan is unleashing his Islamization project.

Since his take over as Prime Minister in 2002, Erdogan has steadily consolidated power and subsequently steered the country away from its foundational attributes of secularism and democracy. Usurping all powers, Erdogan crushed rebellion with iron hand. Driven by a preposterous agenda of establishing an Islamic Caliphate by 2023 to celebrate 100 years of becoming Republic, Erdogan launched revisionist plans.

Consumed by Islamist agenda, and determined to project himself as Messiah of Muslims across the World, Erdogan is lending support to Muslims in Kashmir, Palestine, Myanmar and Xinjiang. After the initial solidarity to Uighur Muslims he cautiously drifted away from the issue to avoid ruffling feathers with China. Erdogan ardently supported the radical Muslim Brotherhood (MB) during Arab Spring and cemented ties with MB leaders Sudanese dictator Omar Al-Bashir and Mohammed Morsi of Egypt. Sudan and Egypt remained closest allies of Turkey until the ouster of MB leaders. Now Erdogan is active votary of Kashmiris and supported Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir.

Through the think-tank GASAM Erdogan has been funding, aiding and patronising various terror groups-ISIS, AQ, Al Shabab, Hamas, Boko Haram, Hezbollah, Hayat Tahrir-Al-Sham ¹¹. The author wrote extensively about Erdogan’s Islamic project- https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/president-erdogan-raking-up-kashmir-issue-to-nurture-his-caliphate-ambitions-part-1 and https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/president-erdogan-raking-up-kashmir-issue-to-nurture-his-caliphate-ambitions-part-2. 

Turkish leadership has now intensified outreach with Indian Muslims. Indian intelligence agencies have warned of Turkey funded rampant radicalisation of Indian Muslims¹². With a single point agenda of claiming leadership of Muslim Ummah, Erdogan has stepped up indoctrination activities. Spear heading political Islam agenda, Turkey laid foundation for an alternative Muslim alliance against the Saudi Arabia at Malaysian Summit in 2019 with Pakistan, Iran, Malaysia and Qatar, united by common affections and enmities. Erdogan who is keen of presenting himself as the political, spiritual, religious leaders of global Muslim populace is stirring the Kashmir issue. Turkey’s obnoxious video is a testament to its insidious agenda ¹⁴.

Through his misguided priorities, policies, sectarianism, unnecessary interventions and engagements, Erdogan overstretched Turkey’s resources and picked up fights with traditional allies, friends and neighbours. To outshine the founder President Kemal Ataturk and go down in history as the most important leader of Turkey, Erdogan abused power and turned into an absolute religious zealot. Despite the marginalisation by neighbours in the region, Erdogan vows to “sacrifice everything, including lives” to make Turkey powerful.

 

@ Copyrights reserved.