With the assassination of the
Commander of the Iran’s paramilitary forces, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani in air
strikes at the Baghdad airport fresh crisis erupted in the Middle East. Since 1998
Soleimani has been in charge of the elite Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) which carries out its operations through a network
of terrorist organisations, militias and proxies to advance Tehran’s interests
across the World. Quds force works under the close watch of the Supreme leader
Ali Khamenei, and Soleimani who directly reports to him has been a dominant
actor in Iran’s foreign policy. Soleimani is the force behind expanding Iran’s
influence across various countries in the region and in strengthening the Shia
militia is considered a cult figure in Iran.
Soleimani strengthened Iran’s ties
with Hezbollah in Lebanon. In an interview to Iranian State TV broadcast, in
October 2019, Soleimani recounted his experiences and the assistance offered to
the Hezbollah during the 34-day Israel-Lebanon war of 2006. He spoke about
Israel’s missed assassination bid during his attempt to escape from Lebanon.
Iran broadcasted the interview days after it has carried out a photo of General
Secretary of Hezbollah, General Hassan Nasrallah seated next to Khamenei and
Soleimani. Soleimani has been instrumental in increasing Iran’s clout in Syria,
Iran and Yemen and stalling the expansion of ISIS. Broaching about the influence
of Soleimani, US Gen David Petraeus recounted having received a message from
Soleimani saying, “Gen. Petraeus, you should know that I, Qassem Soleimani
control the policy for Iran with respect to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Afghanistan”.
Soleimani is known for carrying out
covert operations, ransom killings, assassinations, training in guerrilla
warfare. Indeed, The US and the UN put him on the sanctions list in 2007. Iran’s
conventional army is very weak. It relies on the paramilitary Quds’ Force to
carry out Tehran’s nefarious agenda. The fall of Saddam regime in Iraq, post
the US invasion left a power vacuum in the country. Iran used this opportunity
to spread its wings, extending support to Shia groups, installed a pro-Iranian
regime. Offering assistance to Iraqi forces to take on the IS, Quds forces
established bases in Iraq and used them to relay supplies and weapons to Syria.
Soleimani steadily bolstered Iran’s influence in the region. Quds Force has
been responsible for arming the Pro-Iranian forces in Iraq leading to the death
of over 200 American personnel. Unilateral
pull out from the nuclear deal and concomitant crippling sanctions on Iranian
oil exports, have critically damaged US-Iran bilateral ties. Holding the Quds
force responsible for the death of American soldiers, the US designated IRGC as
a terrorist organisation in April 2019. IRGC which is the arm of the state
became the first state actor to be proscribed by the US. Designation of IRGC as
Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO) irrevocably damaged bilateral ties.
Underscoring the enormity of
Soleimani’s assassination, Yashar Ali, Iranian Journalist tweeted, “But
killing of Soleimani is not like killing the head of terrorist organisation and
a head of state. You have to treat it as such and the US has not DIRECTLY
engaged in assassinations of this level in decades.” His assassination has
taken the World by surprise. Announcing three-day mourning on the death of 62-
year old, Soleimani, Khomeini called him as “living martyr of the revolution”
and vowed “harsh retaliation”. Iranian
Foreign Minister Javed Zaraf tweeted, “the US bears responsibility for all
consequences of its rogue adventurism”. The strikes which claimed seven
lives included, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of Iran-backed militia,
Popular Mobilization Forces.
Escalation of tensions have been in
the offing. On December 27th pro-Iranian Iraqi militia launched a
rocket attack on the US base in Iraq killing an American contractor. In
retaliation, the US struck launched air strikes in Iraq and Syria killing 25
Iran-backed militia in Iraq, Kataeb Hezbollah operatives. Angered by American
attacks, Iran backed militia vandalised American embassy in Baghdad causing
extensive damage to the reception area. In the aftermath of assault on US
Embassy, Defence secretary Mark Esper warned that the US “will take pre-emptive
action”. These attacks and counter assaults brought both nations to the
brink of a major conflict. Taking to Twitter President Trump strongly
criticised Iran’s orchestrated attacks. With immediate effect, he ordered
stationing of US troops in Kuwait to beef up security of its embassy and
personnel in Baghdad. But surprise drone attacks on Soleimani was final nail in
the coffin.
Killing of an American has
triggered this event, America didn’t respond to tankers attacks of its allies
in the Persian Gulf. America exercised restraint even after Iran reportedly
shot down its drone and to assaults on the Saudi oil installations. But
deployed extra troops to Saudi. By penetrating the Iran’s intelligence network
and executing a high-profile assassination, the US has spooked Iran. Befitting
of a dominant power, Pentagon issued a statement, “At the direction of the
President, the US military has taken the defense action to protect the US
personnel abroad by killing Qasem Soleimani” owning the attack. By
eliminating Soleimani, America busted the halo of invincibility of Iran’s work
horse, who carried out extraterritorial, clandestine operations.
Soleimani’s loss will be a grave setback
to Iran. Over the years Soleimani built a vast network of Shia militia which
included Houthis in the Yemen and ratcheted up ties with Hamas, Islamic
Jihadists in Gaza strip & West Bank. Through a formidable web of proxies,
Iran asserted its dominance despite economic doldrums and sanctions. While Iran
announced Soleimani’s replacement his deputy, Esmail Ghaani as the new
commander concerns of the US penetration of Tehran intelligence network will
continue to haunt them. Khameneni who is facing the double whammy of sinking
economy and burgeoning dissent has promised a revenge. But Iran which is facing
bleak economic fortunes will not go for all out direct war with the US.
Employing asymmetric warfare, Iran will continue to extract its pound of flesh.
America will have to bear the brunt of targeted attacks on its citizens,
personnel, embassies, allies and its partners in the region.
Known for using the war rhetoric to
win elections, timing of President Trump’s decision is raising curious doubts.
Past two American establishments have watched the destabilisation caused by the
Iranian proxy network propped up by Soleimani in the region. Both President
Bush and President Obama were presented the options for targeting Soleimani but
they refused to bite the bullet. Critics are quick to point that Trump’s decision
to strike Soleimani is an attempt to deflect attention from (meaningless) impeachment
trials. America deep state is known for its penchant to periodically employ
military might to assert control. Clearly, Trump might be playing to the
gallery to strengthen his re-election bid.
Be whatever may, despite his
incoherent foreign policy decisions, Trump’s might leave behind a rich anti-terrorism
legacy. With Trump at the helm of affairs, American forces eliminated Hamza bin
Laden, putative head of Al-Qaeda, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi leader of IS and now
Soleimani, a dreaded commander who was responsible for deaths of thousands of
people in the Middle East.
Assassinations have the history of
stoking conflicts and Soleimani’s killing may be no different. It has triggered
panic responses. Since his killing, World War III is trending on social media. While
the US-Iran face off will be inevitable, it will not descend into a full-blown
war. Iran will build pressure on Iraqi politicians to force US to evacuate its
embassy and bases. American retreat from the region will mark revival of the
dangerous radical ideologies and may mark the resurgence of forces like IS,
Al-Nusra and others. Iraq, a client state of Iran which has turned into theatre
of new conflict between Iran and the US is accusing the US of violating its
sovereignty. With things moving thick and fast, escalations are bound to rise.
Oil prices surged by 4%.
American allies, the EU, the UN,
Russia China and India called for de-escalation. India which has strategic ties
with both the US and Iran is caught in a precarious situation. Tensions in the
Middle East will have direct impact on the safety of 80 lakh Indian Diaspora in
the region, who are source of $40 billion remittances. Any conflict in the
region which threaten the operations of the strategic Chabahar port in Iran.
Surge in global crude prices due to prolonged conflicts might push India down
an inflationary spiral and increase country’s fiscal deficit. India has to do a
tight balancing act to foster its interests in the region. Simultaneously,
America’s preoccupation with the Middle East might take its attention from the
strategically important Indo-Pacific region.
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