Pakistan is on the brink of unraveling, exposing the fragility of its institutional framework built on feeble foundations. The so-called democracy, just in the name is in ‘polycrisis’. A delicate civil-military balance maintained a semblance of peace in the Islamist Republic has broken. The cardinal rule of the subservient civil administration challenging the supremacy of the military authority has sparked the present crisis.
The crisis which has been brewing since the ouster of Imran Khan as the Prime Minister in April 2022 by a united opposition turned into a full-blown storm with his arrest on May 9, 2023. The paramilitary force- Pak Rangers whisked him away from the Islamabad High Court premises when Khan was marking his biometric attendance. With over 100 cases against him, Khan was evading an imminent arrest and living in a highly guarded house in Lahore.
According to some analysts, the trigger has been Khan’s direct attack on Pakistan’s Army. In a pre-recorded message posted on the Twitter handle, Khan said, “I am ready to die than live under these duffers, the question is are you ready? There is no case on me. They want to put me in jail and I am ready for it”. He doubled down his attack against a serving senior officer, Major General Faisal Naseer accused him of attempting to assassinate him twice and alleged that he even killed journalist Arshad Sharif. This was indeed the last straw.
Inter-State Public Relations Pakistan (ISPR) has reportedly warned Khan of “disrespecting the institution by naming an intelligence officer”. Khan countered in his Twitter post, “Respect is not (confined) to a single institution; respect should be for every citizen”. He ended the video by asking the people to “get ready”. With this open rebuke, Khan has crossed the supposed red line. Now a fresh pre-arrest video of Khan recorded calling people for jihad surfaced, “Freedom doesn’t come to any nation easily. It demands struggle, jihad and hard work”2.
Unsurprisingly, Khan’s alleged arrest in the Al-Qadir Trust case at the High Court akin to an abduction, immediately triggered a wave of protests after PTI’s official handle tweeted Khan was “badly injured” and asked, “Pakistan’s brave people must come out and defend the country”1. His carefully cultivated “messiah-like figure” built on the precept of Islamic populism has eventually turned PTI into a personality cult and pertinently his pre-arrest call for Jihad has been a perfect concoction to push the nation into chaos.
The unprecedented violence, arson, vandalism, and loot that ensued minutes after his arrest vouches for the immense popularity he enjoys in Pakistan. PTI supporters hit the streets in massive numbers and torched anything in their way including the Corps Commanders’ houses, military installations, Radio Pakistan building, and a jet at Mianwali airbase.
Unlike in other countries, the Pakistan Army has the state under it and stage-manages democracy. Despite its supremacy, Pakistan Army commands support and acceptability from the public for its military strength and cohesiveness. The army indirectly controls civilian institutions and governance by installing and rejecting the Prime Ministers at will. Any political dispensation that fails to tow the military line is thrown out. It is thus no wonder that in over 75 years of its existence not a single Pakistani Prime Minister could complete a full five-year term. The legitimacy of Pakistan’s political parties is always subject to the approval of the military.
Following a judicial coup in 2017 and the ouster of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif the Pakistan Army having fallen out with the political dynasties, orchestrated the rise of Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and selected Imran Khan for the top post in August 2018. In the initial few years of Khan’s Prime Ministership, the army “called the shots” and had a harmonious relationship. Things began to fall apart after Pakistan began to slip deeper into an economic crisis and the army started questioning the poor deliverance of the Khan government.
For the first time, bucking the trend of Prime Ministers passing through the trial by fire of the Army, Khan began meddling fingers in military affairs. He sacked the ISI Chief General Asim Munir in June 2019 and installed his loyal lieutenant, General Faiz Hameed who helped in building a populist image. Hameed has been instrumental in Afghan Taliban’s return to Kabul. Hameed had his own followers in the Army which possibly could split loyalties and disrupt the monolithic structural framework of the Pakistan Army. This move irked the Army.
Though Khan wanted Hameed to continue in this post, Lt General Nadeem Anjum was appointed as the DG ISI in November 2021 and Hameed was transferred as the Corps Commander of Peshawar. Subsequently, the tensions between Khan and Army increased and became more pronounced in foreign policy issues. General Bajwa wanted peace with India but Khan sabotaged the plans.
The rift bared out in the open when Khan defiantly traveled to Moscow for a state visit against the stated position of Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Bajwa on the Ukraine issue. This was the tipping point. With Army finding it too difficult to handle Khan, they facilitated a patch-up between the elite political dynasts and facilitated Khan’s ouster through a no-confidence vote which culminated in his unceremonious exit after the combined opposition, Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) voted him out.
Khan’s politics changed the structural dynamics of the Islamist Republic. The pretense of democracy is now completely falling off. The inevitability of the civilian establishment operating within the army redlines has become an open secret. Having accrued immense political clout, Khan began openly challenging the invincibility of the army as the supreme institution. By shaking the faith of people in the army through indirect digs at public rallies, Khan has besmirched the “arrogated guardian” image of the Pakistan Army.
Confident of a victory in elections, leveraging the accumulated political capital, Khan is now directly taking on the Army. Pakistan is heading for a showdown. While a political crisis is not new to coup-prone Pakistan, the country has now reached an inflection point. The Army is finding itself on a sticky wicket unable to even control the spiralling anarchy. By overturning the ruling of the Islamabad High Court which deemed Khan’s arrest as legitimate, the Supreme Court temporarily provided a reprieve for PTI. But, by directing the PTI to again go back to Islamabad HC, SC displayed the highest virtue signaling. The timely intervention, a rather quick fix solution for curtailing the street protests hasn’t pronounced Khan not guilty of corruption charges. He still has to go through the trial and the pliant judiciary shall decide his fate as per the Army dictums.
Escalating the anti-Army rhetoric, Khan assumed a ‘larger than life’ image and frustrated the Pakistani Army who lashed out “what the eternal enemy of the country could not do for seventy-five years, this group wearing a political cloak, in lust for power, has done”3. The Army which had stuttered for a while will now finally prevail and co-opt the political dynasts to take the brickbats and do the dirty job for them. Political banishment of Khan will soon be on the cards and he will be relegated to the role of mentoring any group that is ready to take on the Army.
For all its reckless political struggles and domestic turmoil, Pakistan, which revels in being the first Islamist country with nuclear weapons should now get off its high horse and set its house in order. Arab countries, the US, and China are no longer interested in bailing out Pakistan which is going through one of its worst economic recessions. Episodic outbursts of anarchy, chaos, and common compounded with terror threats from the radical extremist elements from within and its northern border have eroded its strategic geopolitical significance as well. The economy is in shambles. Inflation is sky-high and forex reserves have depleted. The Pakistani rupee hit a triple-century mark against the USD. Millions are pushed into poverty. This is just one part of the story.
Pakistan’s institutions are already crumbling, political polarisation and the dyarchy system have only exemplified it. The country hasn’t completely recovered from the floods yet. Rampant corruption and the absence of responsible political or military leadership have made things even worse. From being a wheat exporting country, Pakistan is now importing food grains and is now ranked 14 out of 17 extremely high water-risk countries in the world4.
The huge demographic dividend of 64% of Pakistan’s population under the age of 30 fails to inspire any hope of a revival since the education system is exploited by radicalized extremist groups. With a tendency to shoot itself in the foot and harbour an intransigent position, peace with India is now a pipe dream. The present crisis layered with problems portends a perilous future for the country. An imploding, disunited, weak, unstable and tottering Pakistan is now the reality of Imran Khan’s Risayat-i-Madina vision.
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