Sudan: Rival Generals Pushing the Country to the Brink

An Indian national hit by a stray bullet died two days ago in Khartoum. Close to 4000 Indians are stranded in conflict-ridden Sudan waiting for immediate evacuation. India is in touch with Quartet countries- the US, the UK, Saudi Arabia and UAE to ensure the safety and security of Indian nationals. At the behest of the UN, the Sudanese Army has agreed to humanitarian passages for three hours¹. Responding to the crisis, Dubai Airport announced to provide accommodation to Sudanese transit passengers².

Amid these developments, back in India, politicians have triggered a row to bring back 31 Karnataka tribals belonging to the Hakki-Pikki tribe trapped in Sudan. Sudan is going through one of the worst conflicts. Amid tensions and reports of looting, the Indian Embassy at Khartoum issued a third advisory to Indian nationals to stay indoors and not venture out. The Ministry of External Affairs has set up a 24X7 control room to provide information and assistance and is in touch with stranded Indians³.

Meanwhile, the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) halted operations after three of its staff were killed. As the war enters the fifth day, thus far, a US diplomatic convoy was fired upon and the EU envoy to Sudan was attacked.

Massive conflicts have erupted in Sudan with reports of over 56 killings in the first three days of clashes. Though the country is not new to conflicts and known for prolonged tensions, military coups, the current crisis, an offshoot of a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Paramilitary Forces (RSF) Rapid Support Forces has brought the country to the brink. RSF seized control of the Presidential Palace, military headquarters and airports. The death toll is mounting. Though the Army and rival forces have initially agreed to the US mediation for a 24-hour ceasefire, the violence continues unabated.

The third largest country in Africa, Sudan is witnessing a grave political crisis which more or less began with the ouster of a three-decade rule of despot Omar al-Bashir in 2019 by a democratic uprising. Subsequently, a hybrid civilian-military government headed by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok stormed to power. However, efforts to install a stable civilian rule were torpedoed in October 2021 due to a military coup led by SAF commander General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan actively supported by RSF chief Mohammed Hamdon Dagalo, known as Hemeti. Burhan is now the defacto Sudanese head of the state and Hemeti is his deputy.

Civilian rule has been eluding Sudan since the first attempt to institute civilian rule was disrupted by the military coup. To end the military rule and enable the two-year transition into the civilian rule, the envoys of the US, France, the UK, Norway, Germany and the EU pushed for a framework deal between the military and the civilian stakeholders in December 2022. The Civilian groups include- Forces Freedom and Change (FFC), the Islamist Popular Congress Party (PCP) a section of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), some rebel movements, Salafists and civil society organizations.

According to the deal, the civilian rule would commence with the appointment of a prime minister by the civilian groups⁴. The framework is backed by the Quad- the US, the UK, UAE and Saudi Arabia; EU, African Union, and United Nations but doesn’t include Egypt which is a pivotal player in Sudan affairs.

Welcoming the framework, Burhan and Hemeti vowed to refrain from intervening in the civilian administration. But the major challenges to implementing the framework included- reforms to the military and civilian sector, the crisis in eastern Sudan, the Juba Peace Agreement, the restoration of stability and development in the region, the structural dismantling of the previous regime, and the establishment of a unified army.

But political disagreements erupted over military restructuring stalling the signing of the deal scheduled for April 1. The disagreements stem from the integration of the RSF militia into the country’s military, which is mandated under the deal. SAF favoured a two-year transition for integration, while Hemeti wanted it to take 10 years.

The integration roadblock stems from the personal rivalry between Burhan and Hemeti. Both men powerful, influential and with huge authority under their belt have brought the country to its current state. Burhan, SAF commander is backed by Egypt and the Islamist forces who held powerful positions in the dismantled Bashir regime. Burhan controls the military-industrial complex.

Hemeti born into the Chadian Arab clan with no formal education became the leader of the Janjaweed (meaning devil on the horseback) militias deployed by Bashir to fight the rebels. In 2013 to crush the massive protests in response to Bashir’s rollback of subsidies, he allowed the regrouping of the militia under the name of RSF headed by Hemeti. In the process, RSF has established bases in Khartoum.  Bashir cultivated Hemeti who along with his men served him and his party National Congress Party (NCP) members as bodyguards. Hemeti along with SAF was accused of severe human rights abuses.

In 2018, at the height of the democratic uprising, Hemeti opportunistically supported the ouster of Bashir. Ironically, despite the support, RSF under Hemeti opened fire on the silent sit-protests in June 2019 killing over 100 people. Overthrowing the hybrid government, Hemeti entered into a marriage of convenience with Burhan to rule the country in October 2021.

Hemeti and his brothers who control the gold mines in Darfur flourished after Sudan transitioned from an oil economy to a gold economy seamlessly smuggling gold using the RSF.  Hemeti is supported by UAE and Saudi Arabia for supplying militias to the Yemen War. Burhan and Hemeti have parallel foreign policies and have respective external forces backing their moves.

With street-level protests gathering steam and believing that the framework proposal favoured RSF, Hemeti changed the track. Rebranding himself as a champion of democracy, Hemeti issued a statement regretting October 2021 while his men continued to crush the street protests. Ostensibly, Burhan and Hemeti are keen on wresting their control over Khartoum.

Besides, the integration of RSF into national military forces, another reason for the present conflict as per historian, Dr. Willow Berridge³ has been the gradual re-empowerment of Islamist groups of the Bashir regime by Burhan. Hemeti felt threatened by possible revenge from them for his betrayal. Hence, Hemeti wants the complete extrication of the Islamists from the SAF before integration.

Civilian groups FFC and UAE consider Hemeti as a bulwark against the return of the Islamist forces to Sudan. Burhan is leaning toward Islamist groups close to Egypt to consolidate his power, Hemeti is looking to UAE support. With the deepening of disagreements, Hemeti moved his forces from Western Sudan to Khartoum and the northern city of Merowe, the second largest airport in Sudan to prevent any joint action between SAF and Egyptian forces against RSF.

Some analysts believe that this Game of Thrones is essentially a battle between unequal forces. SAF has more troops and a superior air force while RSF has battle-hardened forces and substantial armoured vehicles. Sadly, this fighting between the two insiders of Sudan is influenced by external actors as well.

Sudan is located in the horn of Africa abutting the Red Sea and major geopolitical players are now seeking to gain influence in this volatile region. The steady flow of foreign leaders to Sudan ahead of these tensions provides a sneak peek into the complex interplay of different nations in action in the region.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov held separate meetings with Burhan and Hemeti on his visit to Sudan in February. He announced that Moscow would establish a military base along Sudan’s Red Sea Coast as the Russian mercenary Wagner group is fighting terrorism in the Central African Republic. Hemetia’s RSF militia has close ties with Wagner group of Russia and visited Moscow after the Ukraine conflict began. But Burhan is opposed to Russia’s port plans.

Though Egypt is not part of the framework proposal, it has close ties with Sudan. President Sisi is an old ally of Burhan. But Burhan is supported by Sudanese Islamists who have close ties with Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, an adversary of Sisi. Despite the knotty tangle, Egypt still has a larger say in Sudan. But the regional dynamics are suddenly shifting with Sudan getting closer to Ethiopia due to the Grand Renaissance Dam. Egypt and Ethiopia find themselves on opposite sides.

Due to the parallel foreign policies of Burhan and Hemetia, Sudan has turned into an important and contentious pawn in the larger geopolitical matrix of the region. Sudan has a complex relationship with Israel. Sudan supports Palestine’s cause. Sudanese forces fought against Israel in 1948 and 1973 and the arms bound for Hamas pass through Sudan. But Sudan drifted from this position and in 2016 a cash-strapped Sudan softened its stance towards Israel.

As per some reports, in lieu of US financial assistance, Sudan has agreed to sign a normalisation agreement as part of the Abraham Accords with Israel in October 2020⁶. RSF supplies gold to UAE and Hemeti enjoys close ties with ruler Mohammed bin Zayed. Indeed, the close Emirati, Saudi connection might have also driven forward the normalisation agreement.

Interestingly, while Burhan has connections with the political establishment of Israel, Hemeti is in touch with Israeli intelligence Mossad. Keen on launching direct flights from Israel to South America, Prime Minister Netanyahu is seeking to secure an agreement with Sudan, Chad and Nigeria to pass through their air space. Sudan is interested in acquiring Israel’s Pegasus spyware, irrigation and desalination technology⁷. Sudan is thus, a very important piece in the region’s geopolitical jigsaw puzzle.

The steady rise of Islamist influence in Sudan is yet another reason why the US, UAE and Saudi Arabia are pushing forward the framework deal to institute a civilian government. But all the plans of a transition to a peaceful political solution are now shattered by the power struggle between the most influential players of Sudan.

The people of Sudan are caught in the crossfire in the war between the two anti-democratic forces- SAF and RSF. Khartoum is now a ghost city. People are looking for shelter from the SAF’s air strikes and RSF’s artillery fire. A protracted conflict is bound to derail the country and destabilise the region already reeling under the unabated Ethiopian civil war. International mediators must step up their efforts to bring about a ceasefire before the tension pushes the country to the brink.

Unfortunately, an intractable and defiant approach of Sudan has decimated all hopes of international mediation facilitating an amicable resolution. In an interview to Wion, Sudanese envoy, Abdalla Omer Bashir Elhusain said, “The international committees, African Union and other countries, they have expressed their interest and availability and they send the calls to both parties to stop the clashes. But our government thinks that this is a battle, in which we are defending Sudan and we think this is an internal issue, and it should be left to Sudanese people, to solve the problem between themselves and our government is completely not accepting any sort of international interference, so no international interference”. Outrightly rejecting international support and mediation Sudan has precluded all hopes of ending the current turmoil.

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