Haritha's Musings: China’s brazen incursions push Taiwan into American Orbit

Thanks to the China-Originated Wuhan Virus, while the World is reeling under the disastrous impact of the major health emergency, China not only posted positive growth, employing “Mask Diplomacy” with connivance of WHO Beijing escaped scrutiny. Beijing’s treachery, stealth, deception and subterfuge are now an open secret. Notwithstanding the dangerous export of the virus China began fostering its expansionist pursuits and opened several fronts.

For over four months China has locked horns with India over the border issue. Several rounds of Senior Level Commanders meetings, talks between Defence Ministers of both countries and even the five-point consensus reached by the foreign ministers of both sides failed to resolve the logjam. With an unparalleled history of flagrant violation of agreements and blatant disregard for international rules, China’s credibility has hit rock bottom. Having suffered the consequences of trusting Beijing, India is insisting on nothing less than, “complete and verifiable disengagement of Chinese troops” at LAC. The dangerous escalation of tensions between the nuclear-countries brought them on the precipice of war. Compounding the threats to regional peace, China is now recklessly stirring hostilities with the US and Taiwan.

Reinforcing Beijing’s reunification of Taiwan agenda, towards the end of 2019, President Xi issued an unveiled threat, “We don’t promise to renounce the use of force and reserve to use all necessary measures”. Recognition of Taiwan’s COVID-19 practices as “the gold standard” for containing the pandemic outbreak by the Democratic World, fuelled China’s insecurities. Deeming it as a threat to “One China Policy”, Beijing indulged in blatant destabilising behaviour. With characteristic uptick in air space intrusions and live fire drills, Beijing began to corner Taiwan.

Having crushed traces of dissent with iron fist in Xinjiang province, muzzled pro-democratic voices through the hurriedly National Security legislation for Hongkong and replicating the military-styled repression and re-education camps in Tibet, Beijing turned its attention to Taiwan. Beijing intensified its overt and covert attacks on Taiwan after President Tsai-Ing Wen took to office for the second time.

Unlike the Obama administration, Trump who logically acknowledged Pentagon’s strategy report of China’s revisionist agenda, believed the need for a, “strong, prosperous and democratic Taiwan” for rules-based order. Committed to faithfully implement Taiwan Relations Act, signed the 2018 Taiwan Travel Act that facilitates reciprocal visits of high-level US officials to visit and vice versa and approved $8 billion Defence sales, the highest ever to Taiwan in 2019. In April 2020, Trump administration passed 2020 TAPEI Act - Taiwan Allies International Protection Enhancement Initiative elevating the global status of China’s so-called renegade province, recognised by 15 countries and ruffled feathers with Beijing. At the height of the pandemic, in an open rebuke to China, US strongly advocated for WHO membership for Taiwan.

US established formal ties with Taiwan, Republic of China (ROC) in 1949. Both countries signed Mutual Defense Treaty in 1954. Subsequently, all branches of US armed forces under the US Taiwan Defense Command with 30,000 troops and 4 squadron began to operate from Taipei Fine Arts Museum and Chin Chuan Kang airbase respectively. But by April 1979, US withdrew forces from Taiwan creating a gap in the US presence in the Western Pacific in exchange for establishing diplomatic ties with PRC ¹⁰.

The US and China formally agreed on three Joint communiques, that determined the course of the Sino-US relations. As per the first Communique, also called Shanghai Communique signed in 1972 by President Richard Nixon and Chinese Premier Chou En-lai, the US formally acknowledged that, “all Chinese on either side of Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is part of China”¹. Affirming this objective, the US pledged to withdraw all US forces, military bases and installations from Taiwan. With the Joint Communique on Establishment of Diplomatic Relations which came into effect from Jan 1^st 1979, countries agreed to, “neither should seek hegemony on the Asia-Pacific region or in any other region of the World and each is opposed to efforts by other country or group of countries to establish such hegemony” ².

In exchange for establishing diplomatic ties with People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1979, the US abrogated the Mutual Defense Treaty with Republic of China (Taiwan), snapped formal political relations but continued to preserve economic, cultural and unofficial ties with Taiwan. Within nine months of establishing diplomatic ties with the US, China signed similar agreement with Japan. As per the 1982 August 17^th Communique (third one), the US reiterated that it “has no intention of infringing on Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity or interfering in China’s internal affairs, or pursuing the policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan” ³.

But the declassified cables now reveal that in July 1982 the Regan government accepted Taiwan’s proposed points also known as “Six-Assurances” laid the framework for conducting US-Taiwan relations. These included- “the US wouldn’t set a date for termination of sale of arms to Taiwan; US wouldn’t consult PRC on arms sale to Taiwan; US wouldn’t mediate between the two Chinas; US wouldn’t alter Taiwan Relations Act; the US wouldn’t alter its position regarding sovereignty over Taiwan and wouldn’t exert pressure on Taiwan to enter into negotiations with the PRC; the US wouldn’t formally recognise Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan” ⁵.

While the US has recused itself from the obligation of rescuing Taiwan in case of PRC invasion, it pledged to provide all defence services to buttress the self-defence abilities of the island. The nature of the services will be decided by the President and the Congress. This element of America’s “strategic ambiguity” is now under test.

Amid rising tensions between China and Taiwan, demonstrating Washington’s commitment to Taiwan, two declassified cables made appearance on the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT)’s website. Besides, reminding China of its commitment of resolving the Taiwan Straits issue peacefully, the cables asserted America’s right to increase arms sale if China threatens the stability of the region.

Mired in trade disputes, spying charges, culpability of COVID outbreak, Sino-US ties are at the lowest. But undeterred by the plummeting ties, Trump administration launched, “Fortress Taiwan” effort and cobbled up enough political support to finalise $7 billion arms deal which include- Lockheed Martin’s High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), Boeing’s AGM-84H/K SLAM-ER (Standoff Land Attack Missile Expanded Response) weapons systems, cruise missiles, MQ-9B Reaper drones and underwater sea mines to Taiwan ⁶.

After US Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar visit to Taiwan last month and the six-day long Czech Senate President Milos Vystrcil’s arrival in Taipei with his 90-member delegation comprising politicians, entrepreneurs, scientists and journalists spooked China. Warning Taiwan of severe consequences, China began air and naval exercises inside Taiwan air defence buffer zone, close to Pratas Atoll held by Taiwan.

Last week, after US refused to cancel the trip of US undersecretary of state for Economic Development, Energy and Environment Keith Kranch and his delegation to attend memorial service of former President Lee-Teng Hui, China launched series of attacks. PLAAF fired a Long March Rocket carrying satellites directly over Taiwanese skies, sent a warship past Taiwan coast, flew anti-submarine aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ. Kranch is the highest US senior level officer ever to visit Taiwan since 1979.

Indeed, even former Japanese Prime Minister arrived in Taiwan to attend the memorial service of former Taiwanese President carrying Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s message for holding first direct telephonic conversation with President Tsai⁷. Threatening of ‘necessary action’, coinciding the memorial service, China sent 19 fighter jets, bombers and intelligence gathering aircrafts which breached the Median line, mutually agreed marine boundary. In retaliation Taiwan scrambled jets and deployed air defense missile systems asking China to “back off”.

While China continued to defend its military adventurism under “One China Principle” and denied existence of median line, Taiwan shot back and recalled the concept of Median line being established by the US to prevent conflicts between the Communists in China and Nationalists of Taiwan post-Chinese Civil War in 1949 ⁸. Now calls for stationing troops and returning to airbases in Taiwan in the US are gathering strength owing to growing Chinese belligerence⁹.

Countering China’s threats, US increased the frequency of sending war ships through Taiwan Straits. As a direct message to Beijing, the US conducted Valiant Shield 2020 live fire missile drills near Guam and sunk a retired US warship^11.Reciprocally, China announced live fire drill near Bohai Sea from Sep 21^st to Oct 1^st and PLAAF released a video of H-6 bomber making a simulated strike on US base at Guam¹². While the Taiwan foreign Minister called on the international community “to condemn CCP for its dangerous and provocative words and deeds” demonstrating the resolve to safeguard its territory, President Tsai visited outlying Penghu Magong Airbase.

With proclamations of “for millennia, peace has been in the veins and DNA of Chinese nation” on one hand and frenzied incursions on the other, China’s double-speak stands exposed. As of now, China intruded into Taiwan’s ADIZ for 6^th time in a week ¹³. Mindful of its military heft, which is no match to China’s massive PLA forces, Taiwan is planning to increase economic ties to incentivise America to come to its aid if China were to launch an attack. China accounts for 42.3% of its exports as against America’s 14.7%. Attempting to reverse this trend, Tsai has slowly lifted ban on America’s pork and beef products. Keen on re-routing its supply chains, Tsai hosted dinner for Under Secretary Krach and invited Morris Chang, founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co for a collaboration in the Semi-conductor industry following Huawei’s ban from American markets. Clearly, an official bilateral trade agreement would go a long way in cementing economic ties.

Interestingly, days before Krach’s visit to Taiwan, Congressman Tom Tiffany introduced a bill for resuming formal ties with Taiwan and begin negotiation for US-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement. The bill fraught with serious consequences of impacting ties with China and sounding death knell to China’s One-China Policy might be difficult to pass¹⁴. Despite the egregious attacks, China continues to Taiwan’s largest trade partner and a CCP official even pledged, “to further improve policy measures and arrangements that benefit Taiwanese people” ¹⁵.

China’s economy is on a slippery slope. Wary of China’s record of using trade as strategic weapon, nations are restructuring their supply chains. Taiwan is following similar suit to escape China’s economic blackmail. Besides, demonstrating the intent to stand up to Chinese threats, Taiwan is exploring all ways to ally with the US to make up for the great power imbalance in the region. At this juncture, a bold move by Trump administration to challenge “One China Policy” can potentially halt China’s aggressive manoeuvres which are threatening peace and stability of the entire region. Bestowing official recognition to Taiwan will be a game changer.

1. http://www.taiwandocuments.org/communique01.htm

2. http://www.taiwandocuments.org/communique02.htm

3. http://www.taiwandocuments.org/communique03.htm

4. http://www.taiwandocuments.org/assurances.htm

5. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202008310019

6. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4011711

7. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/19/national/politics-diplomacy/yoshihide-suga-taiwan-tsai-ing-wen/

8. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202009220005

9. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4014519

10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Taiwan_Defense_Command

11. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/21/asia/taiwan-china-warplanes-median-line-intl-hnk-scli/index.html?utm_source=twCNNi&utm_content=2020-09-21T12%3A01%3A09&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social

12. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1201365.shtml