India won the battle in Maldives, but the war is far from over

In line with current electoral verdicts where incumbent governments were voted out of power in South Asian countries -Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan and Bhutan, Maldives resolutely voted out the authoritarian President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom. The opposition allies under the leadership of Ibrahim Mohammed Solih of Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) romped home victory registering an unassailable lead of 58.1% in elections with a voter turnout of 89.22%. As per ground reports the voting time was extended for three hours as people queued to exercise their democratic exercise. 

The Indian Ocean Archipelago ~700 kilometres from Indian peninsula has turned into seat of geopolitical contest between India and China with the island nation increasingly gravitating towards China since 2013. Much to the detriment of “India First Policy”, traditionally followed by Maldives, Yameen shifted gears and steadily steered the archipelago towards radical Islamism and acceded to Belt Road Initiative (BRI) of China. Cumulatively the island aside slipping into a debt trap gradually lost its syncretic culture owing to its deep ties with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Compounding the gradual erosion of unique democratic identity of the nation, in February, Yameen imposed emergency, stalled functioning of Parliament, imprisoned former President and Supreme Court judges after the court challenged his decision of jailing former President Nasheed by slapping charges of terrorism. This steadily decline of the domestic law and order situation and unrestrained authoritarianism of Yameen perturbed India. Gradually, Yameen tightened his grip over governance and forced election commission to bar opposition leaders from contesting elections. Hence a resounding defeat of Yameen in elections has been moment of surprise and celebration.

India heaved a sigh of relief as the first results just trickled in. Since February, bilateral ties deteriorated perceptibly. Maldives snubbed India by refusing to participate in the mega military exercise, Milan after India called for release of political prisoners and restoration of democratic process in Maldives.  In June Maldives asked India to take back two Indian Navy’s Advanced Light Helicopters stationed in atolls Laamu and Addu. The government refused to renew visas of 26 navy personnel. Hundreds of Indian citizens who were offered jobs by Maldivian employers couldn’t receive work permits since February. During the same period, Yameen joined the Belt and Road Initiative signed a free trade agreement with China and in August Yameen celebrated the inauguration of Maldives-China Friendship bridge with lot of pomp and show. At the height of constitutional crisis, Chinese mouth-piece The Global Times warned India to refrain from any military intervention. Shortly, eleven Chinese vessels entered Eastern Indian Ocean under the garb of protecting Chinese interests in the island. China which didn’t have even an embassy till 2011 muscled into Maldives which lies along the strategically important trading routes and eventually turned made the Island a formidable part of its string of pearls strategy to surround India.

China’s steady penetration into India’s sphere of influence and immediate neighbourhood raised severe concerns. Strategists strongly criticised the present regime for failing to halt China’s burgeoning strategic spread in the sub-continent. They termed that India’s ineptness or rather a “policy failure” facilitated China’s creepy penetration. India was irrevocably miffed by Yameen’s decision of detaining opposition leaders and crackdown on the protests. Gradual deterioration of law and order irked India, despite gang-ho India being the traditional security provider resisted a “military intervention” recommended by strategists. Despite all odds, India maintained strategic patience which seems to have bore fruits culminating in blossoming of a pro-Indian leadership in the island.

Elated by the elections results, without waiting for Election commission’s declaration, Ministry of External Affairs released a press note stating, “We welcome the successful completion of the third presidential election process in the Maldives which, according to the preliminary information, Mr. Ibrahim Mohamed Salih won. We heartily congratulate Mohamed Solih on his victory and hope that the Election Commission will officially confirm the result at the earliest. This election not only marks triumph of democratic forces in the Maldives, but also reflects firm commitment to the values of democracy and rule of law. In keeping with our, “Neighbourhood First” policy, India looks forward to working closely with the Maldives in further deepening our partnership”. India and the US were among the first few countries to congratulate Maldives. In the meanwhile, Yameen’s long drawn silence before conceding defeat created some panic. A surprise-stricken China congratulated Maldives a day later saying, “we hope the Maldives will maintain consistency and stability of their policy and create an enabling environment and atmosphere for the Chinese operation there”.

Days before elections, Transparency Maldives expressed fears of having a free and fair and electoral process. The results indicated elections weren’t rigged instilling new confidence about islands faith in democratic process which marked second consecutive peaceful power transition. Like recent elections in Sri Lanka and Malaysia poll plank in Maldives has been rising Chinese debt. Within few years of strengthening ties with China Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Maldives are staring at the prospect of debt trap. Aside slew of investments, the island awash with relentless waves of Chinese tourists and workers is raising suspicions among Maldivians about Beijing’s intentions. Ubiquitous Chinese presence in infrastructure, energy and trade sectors is emanating new fears among policy makers who were growing wary of China setting a debt-trap akin to Sri Lanka.  Indeed, Solih rode to power on the promise of reviewing Chinese deals and resetting ties with India.

Though ouster of pro-China Yameen is truly welcoming for India, Maldives might may find it difficult to wean away from China completely. President Sirisena, who took over reigns promised to renegotiate Chinese investments but ended up in making more concessions and handing out Hambantota port on a 99-year lease. In contrast, Mahathir Mohammed of Malaysia cancelled two projects worth $22 billion and launched investigations against Najib for making concessions to China. Mahathir managed to pull out Malaysia from falling into debt trap for time being. But reiterated that Malaysia would continue to maintain strong trade ties with China. Maldivian tourism-based economy currently owes $1.3billion in loans to China which is over 25% of its GDP or 70% of its total debt. Majority of its revenue proceeds are lost in servicing Chinese debt. According to some reports, Maldives agreed to lease uninhabited island Feydhoo Finolhu for tourism for 50 years to China. With free trade agreement in place, Maldives has strangulated itself in Chinese clutches. Though nations are roiled by Chinese debt none of them can ever severe ties with China which is now too big to ignore.

Unlike in the past, countries in India’s immediate vicinity afflicted by small country syndrome began playing Indian card against China and vice-versa.  Smaller countries are right in their own way in anticipating some gains from Chinese investments and subsequent alignment. But a modicum of discretion and an iota of pragmatic analysis of ambitious Chinese outreach which comes with strings attached can help them in long run. China had a free run in Maldives under Yameen who felt emboldened by Beijing’s indifference to his ruthless crackdown of judiciary, censoring press and democratic institutions. Till now, China has been strategically investing in vulnerable economies and authoritarian regimes to strengthen its stranglehold. Investments in Maldives testimonies China’s prodigious approach of ensnaring countries with opaque investment policies.

Maldivian election has infused new hope about vibrancy of democracy, despite apprehensions of rigging by pro-Chinese lobby, the surprise outcome erased all doubts. Due to weak institutional frame works in Asian countries, international community has apprehensions about restoration of full democracy in this part of World. But the recent spree of free and fair elections reflects new zeal of people to overthrow authoritarian regimes with the power of ballot.

China in its congratulatory message surmised, “China has always encouraged Chinese companies to invest in and operate in the Maldives in accordance with market principles, to play a positive role the Maldives socio-economic development” reiterating its continued interest. Having expanded its strategic foothold in Maldives steadily, China will try every trick in the book to woo the President-elect Solih. In July to mollify Sri Lanka when the queer pitch of China funding Rajapaksha roared across the international media, China gifted Sirisena $2 billion Yuan ($295 million) to use for any project of his choice. Beijing even pledged to construct South Asia’s largest kidney hospital in Sirisena’s home province Polonnaruwa. Ecstatic Sirisena immediately handed over the proposal of building houses to all electorates in the country to China. Beijing has mastered the art of hammering out differences by offering dollops of grants. Given Yameen’s reluctance to concede defeat there is no guarantee that he would smoothly hand over power.

China’s overriding influence over India’s traditional sphere of influence should be a wakeup call for India. Relinquishing conventional complacence, India must re-energise bilateral links and extricate Maldives from debt trap by extending interest -free loans to repay China. New Delhi should assist Maldives in strengthening democratic institutions. Yameen cultivated strong ties with Islamist radical outfits of Saudi Arabia that exported Wahhabi/Salafist ideology to the island. Soon sprawling mosques across the archipelago pushed Maldivians towards an intolerant version of Islam. Consequently, Maldives now boasts of highest number of foreign fighter per capita. Some of the radicalised Maldivian fighters were arrested in Kerala. In recent elections, Yameen chose Mohammed Shaheem Ali Saeed of Jamiyyath Salaf, extremist organisation that destroyed priceless Buddhist and Hindu artefacts. Even Pakistan’s influence on Maldivian security forces is increasing. Considering the strategic geographical location of Maldives and its proximity, any assault on democracy or increased political leverage of China could pose direct threat to peace, security and stability of the entire region. In lieu of these strategic implications, India should adopt no-holds barred approach in deepening ties with Maldives.

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