India’s delicate balancing act with Russia

Since 2000 India and Russia uninterruptedly held annual summit meetings to enrich the special and privileged strategic partnership. India always had a trusted friendly relationship with former Soviet Union (now Russia) from Cold war times. The foundation for such robust bilateral ties has been defence cooperation.

President Vladimir Putin’s recently concluded two-day visit to India on Oct 4^th grabbed international attention for the $5.2 billion S-400 Triumf, Surface to Air Missile System (SAM) defence deal between the two countries. Under President Trump’s regime the relations between the US and Russia deteriorated sharply and the US Congress passed a legislation CAATSA (Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) which empowered it to impose economic sanctions on countries trading with its adversaries North Korea, Iran and Russia. Last month US imposed sanctions on China for purchasing S-400 system making the ominous repercussions more pertinent. India is now staring at the threat of such sanctions under CAATSA. But, India is impelled to take a final call on the mega defence deal with Russia exactly a month after India strengthened its defence ties with the US by signing foundational agreement, COMCASA at the 2+2 Indo-US Ministerial Dialogue. Anticipating wrath of the US, India held high level consultations seeking a waiver from sanctions before Putin’s visit. Though US officials understood the importance of S-400 towards India’s defence preparedness, Washington didn’t make any commitments. Despite the threat of looming economic sanctions, India sealed the deal with Russia on Oct 5^th at the 19^th annual bilateral summit. Away from the media glare, both countries concluded the deal and the joint statement carried a single line confirming the finalisation of agreement.

Watching the unfoldment of events closely, US embassy spokesperson said, “Waivers of CAATSA section 231 will be considered on a transaction-by-a-transaction basis. We cannot prejudge any sanctions decisions. The intent of our implementation of CAATSA is to impose costs on Russia for its malign behaviour, including by stopping the flow of money to Russia’s defence sector. CAATSA is not intended to impose damage to the military capabilities of our allies or partners”. He added, “the waiver authority is not for a blanket waiver. It is transaction-specific. There are strict criteria for considering a waiver”. Reading between the lines, it is clear US wants India to make more defence purchases with Washington and slowly wean away from Russia. Casting off the traditional diffidence, India is now pursuing a foreign policy strategic to bolster its national interests and this specific agreement testimonies such a strategic shift. S-400 deal is now eliciting various response from strategists who opined that “India is now between a rock and hard place”. They even started questioning India’s prudence in taking the daring step of honouring an agreement with Russia despite the Damocles sword looming over its head.

The rapid geopolitical fluxes, blurring of old strategic friendships and spurt in new relations with countries that belonged to two different blocks during Cold war have become order of the day. Facing the wrath, ire and severe antagonism from the West, Russia began expanding ties with China. Aside, the regular military exercises as show of strength and solidarity, both countries have now intensified economic and defence sales. Russia has been throwing its entire weight behind China in response to West’s alienation. In the process, Russia has even fortified its ties with Pakistan which was cut to size by President Trump.

S-400 to be delivered by 2020, will have ten battalions of the system. One battalion consists of 8 launchers, 112 missiles and an associated command, radar and support vehicles. In an interview to Sputnik, Pakistani defence analyst said Pakistan is concerned about S-400, a strategic asset which is going to be tip balance of conventional weapons possession in favour of India. Pakistan will now make every effort to obtain similar weapons from other countries. Anticipating Islamabad’s plans, India have incorporated a rider in the agreement preventing Russia from selling S-400 or similar superior weapon to Pakistan. India’s firm stand on S-400 in part stems from Russia game plan executed by Sergei Lavrov, who engineered the plan of wooing Islamabad following India’s elevated strategic collaboration with the US.  In 2014, Russia sold four Mi-35M attack and cargo helicopters to Pakistan. Both countries initially planned to hold the first round of joint exercises in PoK but shifted them to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province later following India’s strong protest. Though Russia launched “charm offensive” back in 2002, this strategy gained fresh momentum after America started rebuking Pakistan. The fissures deepened further after President Trump stalled military aid and suspended special training program to Pakistani personnel in the US. At this juncture, Islamabad doubled its efforts to reach out to Russia. Responding to Pakistan’s overtures, Moscow decided to expand and strengthen defence cooperation with Pakistan & appreciated its efforts against terrorism.

In August, after the conclusion of first Russia-Pakistan Joint Military Consultative Committee (JMCC) meeting, Moscow agreed to admit Pakistani personnel for study and training in Russian military colleges and training institutes. Russian defence manufacturing conglomerate, RTI, signed a MoU with Pakistan to supply a radar system to protect Karachi nuclear plant against any attacks. Reports indicate that Russia was keen on making civil nuclear deal with Pakistan to force India for the S-400 deal. While this plot may sound little over board, considering Indo-Russian traditional friendship, Sergei Lavrov recently said, “We have confirmed Russia’s readiness to continue boosting Pakistan’s counter terrorism capacity, which is in the entire region”. On the contrary, analysts argue Russia’s marriage of convenience with China, Pakistan and Iran is more a strategy to challenge US in the region. But Russia’s guarded response to cross border terrorism in recent joint statement indicates otherwise. Unlike America’s open condemnation of Pakistan, appealing Islamabad to bring the perpetrators of 26/11 Mumbai attacks, Pathankot attacks and Uri attacks to justice and even named the terror outfits. Indo-Russian joint statement on terrorism read “The Sides denounced terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and reiterated the need to combat international terrorism with decisive and collective response without any double standard. The Sides agreed to converge their efforts to eradicate terror networks, their sources of financing, arms and fighters supply to counter terrorist ideology, propaganda and recruitment.” Russia deliberately avoided naming Pakistan, the den for terrorism. In fact, Russia which earlier condemned America for holding talks with Taliban has recently held talks with Taliban along with China, Pakistan and Iran to discuss counter-terrorism cooperation for fighting Islamic State in Afghanistan grossly undermining India’s role as major stake holder in the region.

Russia’s overt cosy moves towards Pakistan is part of Moscow’s new strategy of asserting itself as key power in Asia. For long Russia preferred being identified as a European power. But with its influence, strength steadily declining and European powers relentlessly antagonising Russia on various aspects, Russia is now intent on taking the Western powers from its strategic Asian positioning. But to wield a great bargaining power in Asia where China and India are jostling to play a dominant role, it must either co-opt or simultaneously make attempts to increase its economic heft.  In the process, Russia is eagerly forging ties with countries like Pakistan and Iran on issues of common interest -fighting Islamic State in Afghanistan and bringing Taliban to table.

Samir Saran, President of ORF, in his review to Valdai Club argued- Indo-Pacific is union of two seas, Eurasia is a confluence of two continents. India partners with America in the Indo-Pacific and seeking to engage with Russia to foster its interests in the Eurasian region. India’s partnership with America breaks down in the Eurasia due to the complicated power play in the region, similarly India can’t tie up with Russia in the Indo-Pacific due to larger Sino-Russian collaboration. Putting things in perspective, India is trying to maintain a delicate balance by “partnering with Washington in the seas and Russia on the continent”. India has an immense potential for growth and America can facilitate India’s rise through investments, finance and technology. Russia a $1.6 trillion economy has little scope for making extensive investments in India. Similarly, India can’t offer the kind of economic and political support China can offer to Russia. In this rapidly evolving geopolitical flux, countries are prioritising their interests and forging new links to bolster their objectives. Considering Russia’s assistance in enhancing defence capabilities for decades and deep defence cooperation, India is willing to risk sanctions under CAATSA by purchasing S-400 from Russia.

Russia is indispensable to India to make forays into Central Asia and Eurasia, stalling the penetrative expansion of China across Asia, emergence of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) by consequence China as the dominant power in the continent, resolving intractable conflicts in Afghanistan and transforming Iran as transit hub for intercontinental trade. Summing up, India must re-innovate its ties with Russia to buttress its position as a responsible power in the region.

Seven-decade long Indo-Russian relationship suffers from lack of vision, imagination and multidimensionality. In the past seven decades both countries failed to expand the arenas of cooperation. Defence cooperation has been the strongest pillar of friendship with new pillars in the form of energy and civil nuclear cooperation joining the fray lately. For all the grandiose rhetoric, economic and trade links are weakest with bilateral trade accounting for little over $10 billion. Countries have now set target of $30 billion by 2025 and to this end signed Joint Declaration, “India-Russia Economic Cooperation: The way forward”. India invited Russia to take a lead in Make in India initiative.

Putin’s 24-hour state visit was shorn of all the ceremonial formalities to ensure more time for one to one interaction. Minister of External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj received Putin at the airport who then directly headed to 7, Lok Kalyan Marg, where Prime Minister Modi hosted a private dinner for President Putin. Leaders had one to one discussion for three hours. These crucial exchanges are believed to have laid ground for the conclusion of S-400 deal. The bonhomie which was high on optics, exemplified the special bilateral relationship.  Till now, both leaders met 11 times and informal meeting at Sochi in May is learnt to have played pivotal role in shaping the relationship when countries appeared to drift away. Countries have signed eight agreements which includes MoU on cooperation in MSME sector, contract on rough diamond supplies, cooperation in space technology between ISRO and Federal Space Agency of Russia, “ROSCOSMOS” to assist India’s Gaganyaan project, water transport, Railways “Speed-upgradation” project, assistance to higher educational institutes, agriculture, and the iconic SAM (surface to air missile). Countries have expressed keen interest in jointly collaborating in infrastructure and connectivity projects in third countries. Reiterating its commitment to civil nuclear cooperation, Russia has signed an agreement to set up six nuclear plants in India. Countries called for expediting the INSTC (International North South Transit Corridor) for increasing connectivity. Both countries reached far reaching agreement on wider range of international issues and called for swift implementation of Paris treatment, revamp of security council, evolving political resolution for warn torn Syria. Expressing concerns over unabated violence in Afghanistan, countries have resolved to work together through “Moscow Format” which includes Afghanistan, China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

At the Indo-Russia Business Summit, Putin proposed that India and Russia to work in Arctic region. He added, “This is a very promising, long-term and very serious project that looks decades ahead, one with good investment and good return. As the climate continues to change-in some places, it is good, and elsewhere perhaps not so good-the Northern Sea Route offers growing opportunities”. Earlier in the joint statement both leaders extended support to companies to explore the opportunities for joint oil exploration in Russian territories, including those on Arctic shelf, projects on the shelf of Pechora and Okhotsk Seas.

While highest level of continuous engagement between India and Russia reflects deep trust and confidence, abrasions of massive geopolitical changes is casting a palpable influence. Longstanding bilateral ties are longer immune to this change. Fine balancing has become indispensable mantra of foreign policy in contemporary era. India is replicating this principle to maintain quality relationships with multiple partners.

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