High profile political murders and
Turkey seem to have some incomprehensible relationship. Back in 2016, after
assassination of Russian ambassador, Andrei Karlov, at Ankara, World feared
that this might can have the potential to become World War I Sarajevo kind of
moment and might trigger an unending geopolitical war. Much against these
heightened concerns, Turkey rather smartly handled the situation. The incident
indeed laid a formidable foundation for a new era of Russo-Turkey friendly
relations with Ankara playing a lead role in Russia-led Asthana peace process
for Syria.
Call it stroke of coincidence, Turkey
is back in headlines for the murder of former Washington Post columnist and
critic of Saudi Royal family, Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Arabian consulate at
Istanbul. Initially Saudi Arabia dismissed the reports of murder of Khashoggi
saying he left the Arab consulate alive on the same day and might have fallen
victim to the “rogue elements”. But when the threat of sanctions began to loom
large, Kingdom admitted that Khashoggi died in a fist-fight at consulate which
the regime is not privy to. Recently, an official of Saudi Consulate disclosed
that Khashoggi died in a major scuffle during an investigation at the Consulate
when he resisted attempts to return to Saudi. Subsequently, his body was handed
over to a “local co-operator” to dispose it off. Yesterday Saudi divulged
it as a “premeditated murder”. In the past three weeks, this incident has
inadvertently exposed
A. hypocrisy
of the West
B. Turkey’s
attempts to use this heinous act as a leveraging tool.
Hypocrisy of the West
On Oct 2nd Khashoggi of
Saudi origin, visited Saudi Arabian consulate for necessary paper work to marry
his Turkish fiancée Hatice Cengiz. Prior to entering consulate, Khashoggi
confided about a threat to his life. It has been more than three weeks since
his disappearance Saudi Arabia floated several incredulous stories and the West
seems to have believed them. The rather cautious approach of the western
countries towards Kingdom’s savagery is rather stunning. Contrast this present
development with the alleged poisoning of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal
and his daughter in UK during the first week of March. Even before preliminary
reports could conclusively confirm the alleged poisoning by nerve gas, UK
blamed Russia for the incident. Within few days, EU countries expelled over 150
Russian Diplomats. America ordered the closure of Russian consulate at Seattle
in retaliation and expelled 60 diplomats.
The feeble and rather guarded
response of the Western world towards Saudi Arabia to the brutal killing of
Khashoggi is striking. They adopted a wait and watch approach. US’s silence
over the dastardly murder of Khashoggi has exposed its hypocrisy. It had no
qualms in buying the “rogue elements” theory floated by the Kingdom. Trump even
brazenly endorsed the dubious theory and gave a clean chit to the Kingdom. With
its complicit approach, Washington has indirectly agreed to write off the
Kingdom’s savagery initially. Though Trump administration expressed horror,
giving in to the pressure exerted by US congress, he dispatched Mike Pompeo to
Saudi Arabia. Pompeo held separate meetings with King Salman and Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman, colloquially termed MBS. Both strongly denied having any
knowledge about what happened in the consulate. Later he went to Turkey and in
his private conversations, officials revealed that journalist was killed in the
consulate. On the same day, Khashoggi’s family members released a press
statement, “the strong legal and moral responsibility which our father
instilled in us has obliged us to call for an independent and impartial
international commission to inquire into circumstances of his death”.
Family’s first open confirmation has sparked global outrage.
Soon Saudi Arabia was forced to
admit killing of Khashoggi in the Consulate. Immediately it announced sacking
of two high level consulate officials and 18 persons with suspected links to
the crime. In his first public statement at the Future Investment Initiative,
Davos in the Desert Summit, MBS vowed to hold the people behind the crime
accountable. President Trump called Saudi’s explanation, “the worst cover-up
ever” reversing his credibility to the rogue elements and fist-fight
subsequently. But in an interview, he said, “I want to believe him. I really
want to believe him. They have been a very good ally. They have been tremendous
military investor in our military equipment and other things”. Keen on the
$110 US-Saudi defence deals, which is believed to provide over 1 million jobs,
America ruled out any sanctions. Instead as a cursory measure, US has
blacklisted 21 people arrested by Saudi and revoked their visas.
Even the reaction of European
countries is no different. EU parliament overwhelmingly voted for stalling the
sale of defence weapons and surveillance technology but being non-binding, it
is toothless. They called for independent investigation and fair trial.
Meanwhile, Spain expressed concerns over the terrible murder but refused to
impose ban on defence exports. Theresa May undermined the Opposition call for
ending sale of weapons and defended that, “the procedures we follow are the
strictest in the World” and announced barring the entry of all suspects
into United Kingdom. The answer to West’s indifference to Arab Kingdom’s brazen
violation to human rights lies in the figures compiled by the SIPRI (Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute). US accounts for 61% of Saudi Arabia’s
arms sale, France-4%, Britain-23%, Spain, Italy, Germany and Switzerland
account for 2%. Germany alone announced halting the sale of arms to Saudi and
Slovakia and Czech Republic lent support. Most European countries have huge
financial stakes in the Kingdom. Besides, the Desert Kingdom is the largest
exporter of oil and nearly all the countries are dependent on the country for
energy supplies. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and America are inextricably linked
by the common agenda of containing Iran, a sectarian rival of Saudi and have
geostrategic partnership.
Given the economic and geopolitical
scenario, none of the European countries are inclined to prohibit arms supply
to Saudi as Russia can meet all its defence requirements. Even China, one of
the largest importers of Saudi oil stayed away from the controversy.
Considering its present animosities with US, it will be more than willing to
chip in for help Saudi in every possible way. After Turkish President
threatened to reveal the naked truth and some gory details began to slowly
infiltrate the international media, UK, France and Germany pressed Saudi Arabia
to provide the details of death. For all the grandstanding, the paragons of
virtuosity, the West has stayed away from pronouncing sanctions. With the
World’s attention fixated on the Khashoggi’s incident, China having abducted
the Interpol on charges of bribery is having a free run. Clearly, the virtues
of rules based international order or ethical guidelines is meant for lesser
mortals and poor countries. Audacity and despotism of countries with strong
economic and geopolitical clout hardly face any castigation.
Turkey’s Power Play
Saudi consulate in Istanbul was
seat of blood-splattering dismemberment of Khashoggi who was once close to the
Saudi Royal family. The relationship turned sour following Khashoggi’s vocal
criticism of Crown Prince’s impulsive and ill-conceived actions. Aside, the
Royal Family is weary of Khashoggi’s close ties with Muslim Brotherhood,
designated as terrorist organisation by Riyadh. He was close to Osama bin Laden
and covered his activities as a journalist. He was source of CIA Saudi representative,
John Brennan. He is nephew of Adnan Khashoggi, a billion arms dealer and Dodi
Fayed, who died in car crash with Princess Diana in Paris was his second
cousin. Khashoggi is thus very well connected and highly influential. Since
2017 Khashoggi feared reprisals of Royal family for his critical remarks on MBS
and moved to America as Washington Post correspondent.
MBS decision of allowing women to
drive cars turned him into an instant reformer. Putting record straight,
Khashoggi publicly disclosed that MBS instead of arresting the hardliners is
putting reformers behind bars. Khashoggi’s iniquitous public disclosures forced
the World to reckon the string of unilateral decisions made by MBS. Appointed
as Minister of Defence in 2015, he launched Operation Decisive Storm against
Yemen. Unabated aerial strikes and military intervention by the Saudi- led Coalition
has inflicted irrevocable damage. The poorest Arabian country is now heading
towards “Worst humanitarian crisis” ever. With his unrestrained power play, in
the next two years, he side-lined two Royal descendants in line to the throne
and became Crown Prince. He engineered isolation of Qatar for its alleged ties
with Iran, detained Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri, purged Saudi Royals and
held them as hostages at the luxurious Ritz Carlton hotel, picked up a
diplomatic fight with Canada over captivity of human rights activists. MBS
subsequently recalled Saudi students from Canada, ordered execution of five
political dissidents which included a woman and caused mysterious disappearance
of women drivers.
Incidentally, the oppressive
intolerance of the Saudi Monarchy carried out death dance in the Istanbul Saudi
Consulate. Must against the norms of Vienna Conventions, Turkey managed to
collect first-hand information of the minutest details of the authoritarian
fury unleased in the Consulate. Resonating with the tide of global fury against
the authoritarian monarchy of Saudi Arabia, President Erdogan questioned
Riyadh, “Covering up a savage murder like this will only hurt the human
conscience. We expect the same sensitivity from all parties, primarily the
Saudi Arabian leadership”. Using the incident to its advantage, Turkey
threatened to reveal naked truth by Tuesday (Oct 23rd). But smartly
refrained from disclosing the details.
Turkey and Saudi Arabia traditional
rivals have been vying for leadership of Sunni Islamic World. Both follow
distinct versions of Sunni Islam. Ottoman Kingdom had been cosmopolitan and
adopted France’s version of secularism. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia founder
Ibn Saud embraced the “true Islam” version propounded by Abd al-Wahhab
and continued to patronise the Salafist movements. Being the protector of holy Cities Mecca and
Medina Saudi received special prominence. Ottoman Empire crushed the Wahhabi
revolt and its spread restricting it to the Saudi Peninsula. With time Saudi
became breeding ground for extremist Islamist doctrine, Turkey adopted Western
style democracy. Other two major issues of contention between these countries
are Muslim brotherhood and relations with Iran. Erdogan has no major misgivings
with Iran and believes in taming Iran through diplomacy. Turkey supports Muslim
Brotherhood, which accredits Erdogan’s AKP party as its source of inspiration.
Saudi is averse to Muslim Brotherhood which objects absolute monarchy but
believes in an electoral democracy in establishing an Islamic state. As a
result, the region has two blocks with Turkey, Qatar on one side and another
block comprising Saudi, UAE and Egypt. Turkey is keen on using current
situation to consolidate its position as leader of Sunni Islamic world. But it
is carefully playing its game, avoiding alienating either Saudi or the US. Turkey
has offered to share the details of the Khashoggi’s murder. Gina Haspel, CIA
director travelled to Turkey to initiate the investigation. Fresh reports
indicate that Turkish intelligence found body parts in Saudi Consul’s residence
adding heft to Turkey’s claims. The plot is getting murkier and all the leads
are invariably heading towards the people in the line of command.
Strategists believe Turkey would
use this opportunity to rebuild frayed ties with US. US-Turkey deteriorated recently
over Ankara’s refusal of unconditional release of American pastor which fuelled
a trade tariff war. This aggravated Turkey’s debt crisis, economy nose-dived,
currency plummeted. Under Erdogan, Turkey is emerging as a major player in the
region. With an eye on consolidating its territorial stakes in both North
Syria, Idlib and Kurds dominated Eastern Turkey, it is engaging with Russia and
the US respectively. Turkey it trying to use this situation to its advantage.
The selective, coordinated media leaks and messaging clearly suggests that
Erdogan is determined to use the present movement to teach Saudi Arabia,
America and Europe some vital lessons.
Turkey is pressurising Saudi Arabia
to extradite the suspects for a fair trial since the incident happened on
Turkish soil. Ankara is carefully escalating the issue and carefully planning
for ouster of Crown Prince, who is slowly consolidating the Kingdom’s influence
in the region through high level lobbying in US and reaching out to Israel.
Erdogan’s steady assaults on MBS has already tarnished the aura of MBS as
reformer. This will inflict a death blow on the aggressive foreign policy of
the Kingdom. Cognizant of Erdogan’s ambitious plans, MBS called him twice after
the Khashoggi’s murder. Addressing Davos in the Desert MBS said “A lot of
people are trying to seize this painful situation to create a rift between
Saudi Arabia and Turkey. And I want to send a message: you will never be able
to do that”. MBS clearly hinted at making some concessions to Turkey- be it
in terms of adopting a milder stance towards Qatar, which has pitched in $15
billion to Turkey at heights of currency crisis or making investments in fund
starved Turkey or to have uninterrupted energy supplies with Iran set to go
under the iron curtain of sanctions.
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