China senses a strategic opportunity in Afghanistan

America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan has created a geo-political vacuum. It has opened up an arena for the regional powers to manage the scenario of post-American retreat. Cognizant of the implications and the regional powers have girded up loins through proactive engagement with Afghan Taliban which claims to be in control of 85% of the territory.

A speedy American withdrawal has exposed the sham of “great war on terror” and accentuated Beijing’s strong conviction that US is in terminal decline. Among others, Beijing is sensing an opportunity to expand its strategic base in this region. For long, China has operated in Afghanistan through its proxy Pakistan. Officially expressing its keen interests culminating with America’s retrenchment from Afghanistan, Foreign Minister ahead of the SCO Foreign Ministers meet and Afghan Contact Group meeting announced, “China’s consistent position on the Afghan issue is to respect Afghanistan’s historical and current conditions and to help but not interfere, which is also what separates China from the US and makes China a mediator or a “guarantor of security” in the region”.

Russian ambassador rightly pointed that the civil war in Afghanistan has been reason behind formation of SCO, “One should not forget that the SCO emerged as a response to immediate threats of terrorism and drug trafficking, which came from Afghanistan in the late 1990s. The SCO idea was born from a collective demand for a regional coalition to combat them”

It is a bizarre irony to even believe that China wouldn’t interfere, given the political influence it wields over political regimes in the region. Indubitably, at a time when China is no longer hiding its global ambitions, Beijing is engaging with both Taliban and the Afghan government to secure their support for CPEC and rope in the country officially into BRI for seamless transport of goods to Eurasia.

China has a three-pronged approach for Afghanistan- backchannel communication through Pakistan, SCO platform and positioning as mediator (hosting Taliban, Heart of Asia Summit and holding Intra-Afghan talks).

Cognisant of Taliban’s close links with ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement), China initially supported UN’s sanctions on the group.  But driven by economic factors and security concerns, when Taliban took to reigns, China forged ties with the terrorist group despite its perceived threat from Islamic extremism. To foster economic ties, in 1999 Chinese officials flew to Afghanistan to secure meeting with Mullah Omar; started flights between Kabul and Urumqi and forged economic ties.

In 2000, China’s ambassador to Pakistan Liu extracted assurances from Mullah Omar to not allow anyone to use its territory for any anti-Chinese activity. In return Omar demanded two things from China-formal recognition and protection against sanctions. But the deal failed. While Omar restrained ETIM, he failed to expel them and China in turn didn’t oppose sanctions at UN but abstained from voting. Neither of the parties fulfilled their promises.

Indeed, on September 11^th 2001, China and Taliban signed MoU to enhance economic ties. Things changed after the 9/11 event China supported US’s war on terror and Taliban and its ties took a back seat. However, China managed to obtained concessions from Taliban to disallow any attacks on its investments in Afghanistan.

Pakistan and China were the only two countries that maintained ties with Taliban after 9/11. Reportedly, Beijing held meetings with this group at Chinese controlled Saindak mikes in Pakistan. After Obama administration announced plans of withdrawing in 2014, China increased involvement in Afghanistan.

China conducted Heart of Asia summit at Beijing in 2014, supported the Pakistan hosted Murree talks for Afghan reconciliation and a political settlement through the Quadrilateral Coordination Group with US, Pakistan, Afghanistan. Took part in Kabul process convened by Ghani in 2017, talks at Moscow in 2018 and hosted a trilateral dialogue with Afghanistan and Pakistan in September 2019. Xi resuscitated Afghanistan Contact Group of SCO. In 2019, China hosted Mullah Abdul Baradar and conducted intra-Afghan talks in 2020.

At the trilateral of the foreign ministers in 2019, countries agreed to extend the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan by connecting Peshawar with Kabul. Unlike other countries, China has hedged its bets on major stakeholders of Afghanistan- Taliban (its covert masters Pakistan) and Afghan government. In the pursuit of economic opportunities, exploration of natural resources and military support, President Ashraf Ghani started wooing China. But with US forces still stationed in the country, Ghani refrained from officially acceding to any framework.

China enjoys greater advantage than the West in terms of general acceptance by Afghans as such. West is considered an adversary, whereas China is still coveted as power capable of playing a significant role in peace talks and mediation. But the deep Sino-Pakistan relations cast an aspersion on China’s real intentions. China’s overemphasis on Pakistan is objected by anti-Pakistan forces and Afghan government.

Taliban also considers China as a crucial source of investment and economic support. In fact, in 2007, Beijing managed to potentially secure a lucrative concession from Taliban to prevent any attacks on its projects which included Aynak copper mine. Taliban’s support is crucial for the vast number of projects operating under CPEC and for any fresh strategic investments in the country. But the continued violence and Taliban’s links with ETIM are still a cause of concern for China.

To assuage the concerns of China, Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen announced, “we care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, and we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the World. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs”, thus staying clear of the raging Uighur human rights debate. Eager to seek China’s acquiescence to their rule, Taliban is striking a fine line of maintaining the balance between its commitment to Islamic ideology and the political ambitions.

Last year it pledged to not to let Afghan territory to be used for terror activities against any country including China. These fresh guarantees reminiscent of the past assurances in 2001 has laid foundation for China’s first major public engagement with Taliban.

Days after US abandoned Bagram airbase, Taliban’s resumed brutal killings and medieval Sharia practices made a comeback. Against Taliban’s famed record of reneging on promises, arguing, “making enemy of the Taliban was not in China’s interest” Beijing welcomed Taliban delegation at Tianjin. This engagement is an extension of a meeting between foreign ministers of Pakistan and China on June 24 who vowed to “bring Taliban to the mainstream”.

Reiterating China’s stance, The Global Times, the CCP mouthpiece described Taliban as “an important militant and political force”. By bestowing legitimacy to a terrorist group and lending acceptability, China typically bolstered the popular perception of inexorably siding with terror perpetrators and patronisers to secure its interests.

For decades, China shielded Pakistan from international censure for its terror activities, UN sanctions against its terror organisations and prevented it from getting black listed by FATF.  By extending similar concessions and paybacks in lieu of reining on ETIM and attacks against its interests in Afghanistan, Beijing meant business. Even as it continues to defend the internment of over 1.5 million Uighurs over terror threats, it refuses to acknowledge the implications of mainstreaming a terror outfit.

By acknowledging the terror outfit as stakeholders in Afghan peace, China has emboldened the terror organisations across the World, who would now brazenly continue to unleash their brutality to leverage a Faustian bargain. US lend credibility by striking peace deal with Taliban and failing to inflict any punishment for breaking it. China is taking to the next level to secure its interests.

Taliban pledged to realise peace, protect human rights and interests of women and children in China. But on ground realities are in sharp contrast to the affirmations of Taliban. For China, denial of Uighur sanctuaries in Afghanistan is precondition for engagement with Taliban. Reiterating Beijing’s concerns Wang Yi said, “ETIM is an international terrorist organisation listed by the UNSC which poses a direct threat to China’s national security and territorial integrity. Cracking down on ETIM is the shared responsibility of the international community”.

Beijing exhorts that restraining ETIM is shared responsibility of international community. But fails to extend similar courtesy to India which has at the receiving end of Pakistan’s cross border terror and wary of resurgence of Taliban, which can turn Afghanistan into a breeding zone of terror outfits.

ETIM and its successor Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) has close connections with Osama bin Laden dating back to 2001. While a majority of Uighur militants have moved to Syria a recent UNSC report claims that around 500 of them are operating in the Badakshan province. With the evacuation of foreign troops from Afghanistan, the Uighur militants are planning to return to Afghanistan from Syria.

Wakhan corridor in Badakshan province of Afghanistan which is taken over by Taliban shares a 76km porous border with China opens into Xinjiang province. Re-emergence of Taliban has stirred concerns in China of a plausible infiltration of Uighur seperatists advocating for an independent East Turkestan (Xinjiang). Beijing has beefed up security at the Wakhan border, Afghan-Tajik post, Pakistan administered Kashmir deploying its personnel to forestall any infiltration.

China which has always condoned terror is beset by a strange paradox. Beijing finds a huge scope for expansion in the aftermath of huge void left by American withdrawal in the region. By virtue of iron clad friendship with masters of Taliban and massive economic investments across entire Central Asia, China emerged as the dominant power in the region. By virtue of its burgeoning clout, China seeks to penetrate Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Terror attacks in Pakistan increased in the aftermath of Taliban resurgence. Nine Chinese dam engineered were killed in a terror attack in North Pakistan and a Chinese citizen was shot in Karachi recently.  These attacks have sparked concerns of safety and security of Chinese personnel and investments in the region.

Though Taliban has pledged to severe ties with other terror outfits, latest UN report and the aggressive offensive indicates otherwise. 12 designated terror outfits are reported to have joined Taliban war -LeT, JeM, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Jamaat-ul-Arhar, Lashkar-e-Islam, and Al-Badr were spotted to be fighting alongside Taliban which is in gross violation of 2020 peace treaty.

For decades, China has tamed the mothership of terror, Pakistan for its strategic ambitions. With Taliban-dominated Afghanistan a plausible reality, China dangled carrots to woo it. Tensions due to terrorism would continue to exist. Given the decades of all-weather friendship, Beijing is hopeful of managing the Taliban. But Taliban is not Pakistan and a lot depends on whether Taliban could wrest its control over entire Afghanistan.

Amid China’s overt Taliban outreach, critics lament India has lost Afghanistan. On the contrary, over the past two decades, India has implemented developmental and capacity building projects in 34 provinces of Afghanistan and its nimble-footed efforts in Afghan rebuilding are well received. Aside the massive connectivity exercise through Chahbahar, India recently signed a MoU with Afghanistan for Shahtoot dam construction and called for a quadrilateral working group on the use of Chahbahar port with Uzbekistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Ramping up parleys with regional partners, India is in regular touch with all stakeholders of Afghanistan.

Given Taliban’s gains, strategists are predicting the fall of Afghanistan. But all is not over yet until everything is over. The game is still on.

@Copyrights reserved.