Amid the widespread lament of India missing the bus in the context of Taliban surge and its consequent repercussions on Indian interests, the proactive diplomatic outreach spear-headed by EAM Jaishankar should offer a fresh glimpse into India’s changing foreign policy contours.
Loomed by rising global instabilities, strident US-China rivalry, plausible meltdown in Afghanistan, the palpable fear of return to a bipolar world and eventual Cold war scenario, India has intensified diplomatic parleys with various regional actors. Devastating pandemic exposed the failures of multilateralism and the assertive territorial expansionism of China has underscored the need for a collectivism and new partnerships for regional peace and stability.
Championing a free and open Indo-Pacific and a multipolar World, EAM Jaishankar embarked on a massive outreach spree. Terming Wuhan virus pandemic as a “shared problem” and “global crisis”, India generously supplied medicines, assistance and Vaccines to various countries. Reciprocally, when India was overwhelmed by second wave of the pandemic, countries pitched in to offer help. India gracefully accepted the foreign assistance as a part of “mutual assistance framework”.
In pursuit of securing Indian interests, especially energy security, EAM on his visit to Kuwait renewed energy cooperation. Kuwait is the seventh largest crude oil supplier of India after US replaced it from sixth position in 2015. In February Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) in talks with India and Japan announced that its is likely to shorten annual supplies to nine months to meet the demands from its new refinery. This came in the backdrop of Iraq, the largest oil supplies announcing supply cuts to India as per the quota limits set by OPEC.
During Kuwaiti Foreign Minister’s visit to India in March, aside discussing the energy, countries agreed to establish Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC) to steer the relationship2. Catering to Kuwait’s Covid emergency, India rushed a medical team, emergency food supplies and supplied Covishield vaccines as well. In turn, when India battled tragic covid wave, Kuwait ensured reliable supply of liquid medical oxygen by establishing a Sea Bridge. EAM on his Kuwait visit on the eve of 60 years of diplomatic ties carried a personal letter of PM Modi to the Emir. He laid firm ground for new JMC that envisaged cooperation in hydrocarbons, manpower, mobility, health care, trade & investments, defence & security, finalized and signed a MoU bringing the Indian domestic workers under legal framework.
Reports of China’s plans to establish a second military base in Africa at Bagomoya in Tanzania, the first one being Djibouti in 2017 propelled global powers- US, Japan and Russia to expand foot print in Africa. With a focus on stability and security in the Western Indian Ocean under the ambit of Indo-Pacific policy, keen on expanding bilateral cooperation with strategic partner, Kenya EAM made a three-day visit. Kenya is a key stakeholder in determining the geopolitics of Western Indian Ocean.
Co-Chairing 3rd, India-Kenya Joint Commission Meeting, recognizing Kenya’s Big Four Agenda on Manufacturing, Affordable Housing, Food Security and Health, EAM underlined India’s interest to partner in these areas. He reiterated India’s commitment to South-South Cooperation ahead of India-Africa Forum Summit-IV this year.
Enroute his two-country visit and on his way back home, EAM made a stopover at Doha. During his two visits to Qatar in a week, EAM met the NSA and Foreign Minister of Qatar. The stopover is considered significant since Doha has been the venue for peace talks between the Afghan government and Taliban. Expedited pullback of American troops and consequent Taliban’s territorial gains have huge implications on immediate neighbourhood and rightly so, the timing of visit triggered speculations of India opening communication channels with Taliban.
Without dropping too many hits, MEA announced that India is in contact with various stakeholders in Afghanistan and added that EAM and his Qatari counterpart discussed Covid support, global and regional security issues and bilateral cooperation3. It is no secret that Qatar enjoys Taliban’s confidence and Doha-based Shura is known to be calling shots in Kabul. Given the close links, EAM’s act of touching base has great strategic significance.
Peace in Afghanistan is crucial to regional stability. Resurgence of Taliban akin to 1990s besides increasing the strategic depth of Pakistan can have a direct impact on J&K and India’s investments worth $3billion in the country. Against the criticisms of India being late in the gate, exploring the old convergences India renewed discussions with Iran and Russia. EAM travelled to both countries which have sizeable influence over Taliban. Iran sheltered Osama bin Laden to build connections with Pashtun leadership and Pakistan facilitated Russia’s connection with Taliban.
Carrying the personal message of PM Modi, EAM sought private audience with the newly elected Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. He held long drawn conversations with counterpart Javad Jaraf and thanked him for holding two day long The Intra-Afghan Dialogue attended by Taliban delegation led by Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanekzai and Afghan Vice President Yunus Qanuni. Taliban delegation has released a six-point joint statement. Expectedly, though the talks failed to make any breakthrough, India agreed with Iran that intra-Afghan talks is the only way forward for peace in Afghanistan.
EAM attempted to resurrect the India-Iran-Russia triangle that backed Northern Alliance. While much is being read into EAM’s Tehran visit on his way to Moscow, back in September 2020 as well, EAM made a pitstop at Iran while traveling to Russia. Clearly, the focus of the visit has been Afghanistan. Taliban’s blistering attacks and rapid gains in the aftermath of US troop pull back generated fresh fears in Moscow for the Central Asian countries share porous borders with Afghanistan.
To allay Russian fears and assure that they wouldn’t violate the borders of Central Asian countries and guarantee security of their foreign personnel and embassies, Taliban delegation met Russian envoy Zamir Kubulov. Around the same time, EAM met Russian envoy Sergei Lavrov to prepare ground for Indo-Russian annual summit. He discussed inter regional cooperation particularly, Russian Far East, connectivity aspects, North-South Corridor, Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria and Libya.
Both countries affirmed their commitment to an independent, sovereign, united and democratic Afghanistan and believed that they should work together. Reluctant to take any military action, Russia wanted America to ensure the implementation of peace deal and believed that Afghan government isn’t doing enough.
Russia, a former superpower, reliant on its hydrocarbon and defence exports demonstrates an undiminished willingness to deploy military. Be it military action in 2008 against Georgia or annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its entry into Middle East through Syrian intervention and private militia in Libyan civilian war following America’s inconsistent policies Russia wants to play the great power game.
Deepening of Russia’s ties with China, announcement of renewal of Friendship treaty on the eve of CCP centenary, the emergence of the Indo-Pacific concept and the Quad have laid out bare the differing perspectives of India and Russia. Aside the Afghanistan issue, drawn towards China due to the West’s sanctions, Russia insisted on an Asia-Pacific concept. Seeking to address teething misunderstandings, delivering his speech on “India-Russia ties in a changing world” at Primakov Institute of World Economy EAM has presented India’s perspectives reiterating- “the undeniable reality of exceptional resilience of our ties is surely phenomenon worth analyzing”.
Stating that “the core of our contemporary relationship is the embrace of multi-polarity…. And that it rests on the foundation of a more democratic and diverse international order, one that is committed to sovereign equality of all states”, expressed strong disapproval of Chinese expansionism and upmanship, saying, “logically that a multi-polar world must have a multi-polar Asia is an essential constituent”.
Addressing Russian concerns of India’s growing proximity with the US, EAM explained the rationale of Indo-Pacific and suggested a way forward- “a world of convergence that the multi-polar and re-balanced international order has created will inevitably be different from the one what we were used to before. Quite obviously, it will be less structured and more fluid, leaving open the possibility of differences even among those who are together. The inclination would be to look at pragmatic and result-oriented cooperation on defined issues”.
Elucidating India’s choices, he said, “the operating principle of multi-polar world is the legitimate pursuit of flexibility without seeking exclusivity. After all, the latter is antithetical to the very logic of multi-polarity” and referred to New Delhi’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative for better understanding of India’s vision for Indo-Pacific.
Evincing strong interest to work together for a stable and diverse and international world order, Jaishankar, renewed ties with Russia. Adding a new dimension to the special and privileged strategic partnership, countries agreed to hold 2+2 Dialogue of Foreign and Defence Ministers.
EAM travelled to Georgia from Moscow before returning home. This evoked caustic responses with critics terming it as India’s reply to Sergei Lavrov’s attempted hyphenation of New Delhi with Islamabad. But seasoned diplomats quickly debunked it, saying Indo-Russian relations are beyond this kind of symbolism. The last Indian EAM to visit Georgia was Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1978. Jaishankar handed over the relics of Queen St. Ketevan and rejuvenated the strong historical connect.
At the Dushanbe SCO foreign ministers meet EAM backed Afghan-led and Afghan-owned solution and pitched for connectivity with Afghanistan via Chabahar port at Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity, Challenges and Opportunities conference in Uzbekistan.
Meeting the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani along the sidelines of the Connectivity conference, EAM assured him of India’s support for peace, stability and development in Afghanistan. Opening communication channels with various stakeholders of Afghanistan, India is resolutely working towards a peaceful solution.
After the Indo-EU summit, India revved up engagement with European countries. Unveiling a new chapter of ingenious diplomacy, EAM on his visit to Greece, the first by an Indian Foreign Minister in 18 years, started working towards establishing strategic partnership. India’s engagement with the European country thus far have been broadly cultural.
With the traditional Greco-Turkish rivalry spilling into the East Mediterranean Sea, Greece is keen on supporting India which is at odds with Pakistan, a close ally of Turkey. Similarly, the idea of using Greece to deal with Turkey is not lost on India. Greece served as launch pad for China to expand its global economic influence after Cosco obtained major stakes in Piraeus port, a strategic location between both Asian and European countries.
Post Covid even as Greece welcomed investments from China, it has aligned with India’s Free Indo-Pacific and rules-based order, signed the International Solar Alliance. India and Greece hold similar views in terms respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty and recognized threat from terrorism and radicalism.
Revisionist and aggressive policies of Turkey are posing threat to Greece. To counter the burgeoning hostile Turkey-Qatar alliance, Greece has developed strategic partnership with UAE. Given India’s strong strategic ties with UAE, Greece FM on his visit to Delhi proposed India-UAE-Greece trilateral. UAE and Greece are presenting their candidacy for UNSC non-permanent seat, a position India holds currently for 2024 and 2025. Greece needs India’s backing and in turn, Athens pledged to serve as bridge between New Delhi and EU.
Covid pandemic has inadvertently triggered a pushback against China. Shifting gears, Italy, the first G-7 nation to join BRI, openly criticized Beijing’s practices as “unfair” and called on EU to be bold in confronting China. Seeking to enter the Indo-Pacific geography, Italy evinced interest to enter into a trilateral partnership with India and Japan on the eve of EAM’s visit to Rome. Clearly, Europe’s embrace of Indo-Pacific underscores the rising recognition of the geopolitical significance of the region.
Wary of challenges posed by China’s aggressive policies, nations are now eager to join purpose-oriented partnerships. Owing to India’s growing centrality in the Indo-Pacific architecture and its strong affirmation to democratic, diverse and rules-based order, nations are seeking to partner with India.
Bogged down by reluctance and incongruent approaches, despite its strategic geographic location, historical and cultural connect with various nations, India failed to claim its position at high table. Through coordinated responses, proactive outreach and a strategically clear foreign policy India has coveted the responsible power status. Consequently, countries which share similar interests and values and facing similar challenges are seeking to partner with India.
The new streak of assertiveness and dynamism displayed by India in expanding horizons attests that Indian diplomacy has certainly come off the age.
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