Beyond symbolism, Wuhan summit enhanced mutual understanding between India and China

The two summits-Korean and Wuhan Summit which concluded recently, in Asian continent brought a semblance of peace, hope and renewed cooperation. While a joint statement was issued after the Korean Summit, Indo-China summit lasted which for two days didn’t formally released any joint declaration. Modi and Xi indeed held six rounds of talks. Putting irreconcilable differences on the back burner, in tune with changing global paradigm, Modi and Xi met at Wuhan. Concluding the summit, both countries issued separate statements, containing themes of convergence and inadvertently stressed on issues that mattered most to them. In fact, a new beginning made by Asian giants undermining differences opened new vistas for cooperation.  

As discussed earlier, the threat of US trade war prompted China to form a united front with India against the protectionist approach of America.  Setting stage for a renewed engagement Chinese foreign minister who was in India March said, “The Chinese Dragon and Indian Elephant must not fight with each other but dance with each other”. Earlier in February, China meekly agreed to forgo its opposition to black-listing of Pakistan at FATF (Financial Action Task Force) in return for India’s support for Beijing’s Vice-Presidential elevation. Also, the flurry of the high-level reciprocal visits of dignitaries between two countries since Xiamen BRICS Summit of September 2015 infused a new momentum in Indo-China relations.

Days ahead of summit, Indian side reiterated that it had low expectations from the informal summit. Expectedly so, while the summit was very high on bonhomie, it didn’t offer any magic bullet for all the longstanding issues that roiled bilateral ties. Wuhan summit was inspired by President Xi’s earlier stint of sorting out relations with America with President Obama at Sunnylands in 2013. Summit held at California didn’t produce any lasting outcomes it helped to ease out relations. With both India and China feeling the heat of the disputes and incursions which have snowballed into a stand-off, this summit offered to reduce friction temporarily with Modi and Xi reaching broad consensus over certain issues. Significantly, there is no mention of Masood Azhar issue, NSG membership or burgeoning trade imbalances. As expected China’s stance on specific issues, related to third party and its vassal state Pakistan have been rather muted.

Wuhan summit besides symbolising ascendency of personalised diplomacy has for once ended the Chinese protocol tradition of equating Indian Prime minister to their premier. It must be recalled that in 2015 Chinese Premier Li Keqiang was deployed to extend ceremonial welcome to Modi on his visit to Xian. In this context, President Xi hosting Prime Minister Modi for two days at Wuhan is a major elevation to status of democratically elected leader of India. Xi taking complete charge of the whole issue not only reflected his growing clout but it has literally reduced the prominence of Chinese premier Li. For two days, the unmissable ambience, electrifying welcome of Modi with Bollywood number, “Tu hai wahi dil ne jise apna kaha”, long walks along the Wuhan lake, tour to heritage museum, the traditional tea ceremony and finally a relaxed boat drive on boat for “peace, prosperity and development” made for impressive optics. Unperturbed by China’s seemingly flexible stance, India remained firm on certain aspects and categorically expressed its opposition towards BRI (Belt Road Initiative), CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) and strongly condemned state sponsored terrorism without directly referring to Pakistan at the Foreign Affairs Ministers meeting of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation). While Modi embarked for Wuhan, underscoring the need for de-escalation of tensions between both countries, Congress Spokesperson launched a scathing attack on Prime Minister for attending the informal summit. In a series of five tweets, he lashed out at Modi saying “Will PM Modi take up the issue in the summit with Chinese president today in Wuhan, China? Modiji may not be able to show “red eyes” as he loftily promised, but will he show the courage of conviction to do plain-speaking on Doklam and defend India’s interests?”. In response, demarcating,  India’s national interests from its attempts in pursuing friendly ties with China, while Modi was in Wuhan, government announced that 96 new border posts of ITBP (Indo-Tibetan Border Police) will be added along the Indo-China border to enhance operational capability.

Leaders agreed on certain common themes and differed on specific issues as evident from the statements issued by respective countries. Sticking points of Indo-China relations have been long-festering border issue, terrorism and trade imbalances.  As has been evident from Chinese approach, Beijing has always been tongue-tied in calling spade a spade with respect to terrorism. This summit has been no different. While Indian statement read, “Prime Minister Modi and President Xi recognised common threat posed by terrorism and reiterated their strong condemnation of and resolute opposition to terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. They committed themselves on counter terrorism”. China made a reference to terrorism in passing. The choice of words and casual reference to scourge of terrorism aptly reflects Beijing’s indifference to Pakistan’s state sponsor terrorism. It says, “They agree to join hands in offering innovative and sustainable solutions to global challenges such as epidemics, natural disasters, climate change and terrorism”. Needless to say, Beijing indirectly suggested India that China will be the last person to join hands in fight against terrorism. China have strategic and economic interests in Pakistan. Beijing’s strong urge to defend Pakistan is understandable, since Islamabad has been China’s formidable asset in its containment of India policy.

Both sides stressed on importance on maintaining “peace and tranquillity”, “implementing confidence building measures”, “trust and mutual understanding”. While a greater congruence over resolution of border issue is evident from both the sides, they lamented lack of strategic communication which eventually escalated Doklam border stand-off. In a welcome development, both sides agreed to use Special Representatives meeting on border issue for a fair, reasonable and mutually agreeable settlement. Indian emphasised on “strategic guidance”, “predictability and effectiveness in the management of border affairs” to avoid unnecessarily border skirmishes.  While Indian statement expressed its intent to settle down the Indo-China border issue at the earliest, Beijing’s lack of determination is striking, implying its intent of using border as a strategic leverage.

Both countries appreciated the need for building a free, open, inclusive, multipolar, pluralist global economic order, China has been very vocal in championing globalisation. As against India’s subdued approach China opined, “The two countries will work together to make international relations more democratic, increase the representation and say of developing countries and emerging markets, support multilateral trading regime, oppose protectionism and work for an open, inclusive, balanced and win-win economic globalisation that benefits all”. Perturbed by economic slowdown, increased debts, threats of trade tariff war and America’s confrontational attitude Beijing is seeking to deepen engagement with India. This economic anxiety is evident from its strong-worded statement.

While India sought to “push forward bilateral trade and investment in balanced and sustainable manner by taking advantage of complementarities between their two economies”, China wanted to harness the full potential of business and investment cooperation and new ways of exploring win-win situation. This ominously worded win-win situation which is the foundation for OBOR as well should ring bells for India that China is interested exploring investment opportunities in India and not interested in addressing ballooning trade deficits. But for all the grand talk on free trade, even now China has closed doors to India’s pharmaceuticals, agriculture goods, Aluminium and beef exports. Indo-China bilateral trade touched a new high reaching $84.44 billion. Though Indian exports have increased 40% the trade deficit hovers around whopping $51 billion. Experts predict while bilateral trade might soon touch $100 billion, burgeoning trade deficit might spell doom for growing Indian economy.

Besides, both leaders stressed the need for encouraging cultural exchanges and people to people contact, strengthening closer Developmental Partnership, underscored need for developing multilateral financial and political institutions and called for candid discussions on political and security issues.

Interestingly, while China invoked the five principles of mutual coexistence of Panchsheel, India avoided any such references. Modi invited Xi for an informal meeting in India next year. The major outcome of Wuhan has been both countries agreed to work together on an economic project in Afghanistan. While the summit may not be high on outcomes, leaders have rejuvenated bilateral ties hovered by dark clouds of distrust. Close on heels, with leaders agreeing to lend “strategic guidance” to their militaries to build trust and mutual understanding, Army Chief Bipin Rawat is set to meet NSA Ajit Doval to discuss measures for keeping the LAC “incident-free”. Decks are now cleared for establishing a direct hot line between Indian Director General Military Operations (DGMO) and Chinese counterpart and for creation of information sharing mechanism. Both armies are now mooting joint patrolling in disputed regions. Army sources indicated that this limited joint patrolling experimented in few regions of Arunachal Pradesh has been successful. It might be too premature to comment on the outcomes of Wuhan summit but certainly there is a display of some understanding. As of now, India shouldn’t reduce guard and be cautious and follow dictum of “trust, but verify”.

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