Trump's flip-flop on Singapore Summit

Confounding worst fears, President Trump with a proclivity of reneging deals has called off much awaited talks with North Korean Supremo Kim Jong Un scheduled for June 12^th. On May 24^th, he tweeted, “I have decided to terminate the planned summit in Singapore on June 12^th. While many things can happen, and great opportunity lies ahead potentially, I believe that this is a tremendous set back for North Korea and indeed a setback for the World”. In consonance with his reputation of pulling out from various agreements, Trump’s latest volte-face though very serious was along expected lines. Trump’s decision which comes days after his wilful pulling of America from historic Iran deal has had eventually decimated all hopes of US striking a deal with North Korea. Trump’s preposterous scrapping of Iran deal might have strengthened genuine suspicions North Korea held towards the US. Given, America’s hostile approach towards Libya and Iraq, Kim has been quite apprehensive of Trump’s conciliatory acceptance for a summit meet. Within 24hrs of the announcing the cancellation of the summit, Trump invigorated new hopes of bringing peace to Korean peninsula by saying that America is not averse to reconsidering the decision of calling off talks. This flip-flop, besides, conforming the Trump’s characteristic uncertainty is now potentially creating confusion, eroding the reputation of decision-making abilities of America’s presidential office.

Till now strategic experts viewed that Kim and Trump are perfect match for being so mercurial and tough negotiators. But North Korea’s rather circumspect response to Trump letter reneging on Singapore Summit, has reinforced Kim’s fervent commitment towards denuclearisation of Korean peninsula. In his letter to Kim, Trump said, “sadly based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your recent statements, I feel it is in appropriate at this time to have this long-planned meeting. You talk of nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God that they will never have to be used”. In reply to this intimidating American response,  DPRK’s first vice-president of foreign affairs, Kim Kye Gwan, said, “As far as the historic DPRK-US summit is concerned, we have inwardly highly appreciated President Trump for having made a bold decision, which any other US presidents dared not, and made efforts for such a crucial event as the summit. His sudden and unilateral announcement to cancel the summit is something unexpected to us and we cannot but feel great regret for it”….. and added “But we remain unchanged in our goal and will do everything we could for peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and the mankind, and we are broad-minded and open all the time, have the willingness to offer the US side time and opportunity”. With these remarks, DPRK shifted onus on Trump to take a final call and hasn’t shied away from saying that America is still not confident about DPRK’s commitment towards peace.

While US and DPRK openly divulged their reactions, the country which expended diplomatic energies, South Korea was deeply disappointed. Trump’s sudden decision of cancelling the summit left South Korean leader Moon Jae-in flabbergasted who travelled to Washington just days before his announcement parleying for the meet. For all his efforts in resuscitating the summit, Moon wasn’t informed of Trump’s decision in advance, leaving him perplexed and South Korea felt snubbed. Terming the decision as “very regrettable and unfortunate” Moon hoped that both countries would resolve their differences “through more direct and close dialogue between the leaders”.

DPRK’s unusually conciliatory approach Kim Kye-Gwan’s unrestrained response of “the first meeting wouldn’t solve all, but solving even one at a time in a phased way would make the relations get better rather than making worse” has struck right cords with American allies-Japan and South Korea. Ever since cancellation, it is believed that a flurry of diplomatic rallying carried out by South Korea lead to an apparent U-turn. On May 26^th Trump took to twitter again stating, “We are having very productive talks with North Korea about reinstating the summit which, if it doesn’t happen, will likely remain in Singapore on the same date, June 12^th, and if necessary will be extended beyond that date”.

Unperturbed by Trump rescinding the summit, Kim held two-hour impromptu talks in the demilitarized zone of North Korean Panmunjom village. As per Presidential Blue Palace news report from Seoul, both leaders discussed ways to implement Panmunjom Declaration, for deepening inter-Korean ties and to ensure a successful DPRK-US summit. Clearly playing hard diplomacy Kim not only convinced South Korea of its firm commitment but forced Trump to relinquish his “temper tantrums”.

In run up to the summit, as a confidence building measure, DPRK released three American citizens. In the following week, DPRK announced that the regime is no longer interested in building nuclear weapons and invited international journalists to watch dismantling or closing ceremony of lone nuclear site Punggye-ri. Some strategists dismissed Kim’s diplomatic gesture as mere symbolism while others were sceptical whether he would ever agree to relinquish nuclear weapons. Amidst this symbolism, staunch supporters of Trump nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize and Trump administration released a commemorative coin featuring Trump and Kim against the background of their respective national flags.  Intriguingly, South Korea and US hasn’t scaled down the annual aerial exercises Max Thunder which included a nuclear strategic bomber provoking DPRK on May 16^th. Irked Kim, cancelled his upcoming talks with South Korea.

But what emerged as the sore point was American enthusiasm of thrusting down DPRK’s throat the doctrine of CIVD-Comprehensive Irreversible Verifiable Disarmament. America insisted on elimination of all nuclear weapons upfront along its Libyan Model. Unlike Libya which wasn’t even close to making nuclear weapons, North Korea has developed massive nuclear infrastructure. Since 2003 it has conducted dozens of missiles and nuclear tests, developed a thermonuclear bomb and successfully tested an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile capable of reaching mainland America. Having built significant nuclear arsenal and assured of strategic nuclear deterrent, Kim announced a moratorium on nuclear weapons. He made extensive diplomatic forays to bring nation from decades of isolation and sanctions regime. Kim reiterating his stance towards denuclearisation stitched close diplomatic relations with South Korea and even met President Xi twice. But during his outreach, Kim has always stressed on denuclearisation of entire Korean peninsula, implying that America should pull out forces and assets from South Korea. Besides, he desired for a synchronized and phased approach with America making some concessions to address the security concerns of Kim. Cognizant of the brutal ending of the Libyan Supremo Muhammar Gadhafi, in 2011 when he assumed reigns, Kim believed that relinquishing nuclear weapons in exchange for American guarantees for investment and security assurances was just a trap.

To utter dismay of Kim, who had concerns regarding national security and continuance of his regime in power, hawkish National Security Advisor’s references to “Libya Model” for negotiations with DPRK stoked fresh suspicions. Talking about North Korea, Trump ascertained that if DPRK agrees to denuclearise, “he will get protections that would be very strong” else grave situations will entail. He warned, “that model (Libya Model) would take place if we don’t make a deal. The Libyan Model isn’t the model we have at all. In Libya we decimated that country. There was no deal to keep Gadhafi”. While secretary of state, Mike Pompeo adopted a diplomatic route to deal with Pyongyang, overriding his gestures, Bolton adopted a fiery rhetoric. Terming Bolton’s references as “highly sinister” Vice-President Kim Kye-Gwan said, “The World knows too well that our country is neither Iraq nor Libya, which have miserable fates. It is absolutely absurd to compare nuclear weapons state DPRK to Libya which has been at the initial stage of nuclear development. If the US is trying to drive us into a corner to force our unilateral nuclear abandonment, we no longer be interested in such a dialogue and cannot but reconsider our proceeding to DPRK-US summit”. In the meanwhile, even Vice-President in his interview of Fox Channel said that DPRK might end up like Libya if deal is not struck. Angered by Pence’s comments, DPRK’s vice foreign affairs minister Choe said, “As a person involved in US affairs, I cannot suppress my surprise at such ignorant remarks from the mouth of US vice-president. In case US offends us against our good will and clings to unlawful and outrageous acts, I will forward a suggestion to our supreme leadership for reconsidering the DPRK-US summit”. The inclement narrative set by America’s hawkish officials, weeks before the summit has clearly touched raw nerves of DPRK making them more suspicious of America. Together these imprudent remarks escalated the tension between both countries setting the stage for calling off the summit.

Mike Pompeo’s Korean diplomacy has raised new doubts in American allies- South Korea and Japan who were believed to understand that US is interested in annihilation of long range missiles leaving them in a lurch. Trump’s dubious approach of ignoring concerns of allies is withering their trust and faith in America, prompting them to forge strong ties with proactive power centres like China and Russia. Trump’s flip-flop clearly indicates that America is not having a concrete agenda for negotiations as indicated by sources. With Singapore summit back on track, Japanese Prime Minister Abe who is concerned about the DPRK’s short-range missiles will meet Trump before the summit. South Korean President Moon is likely to join the summit, raising the hopes of a possible trilateral summit. Moon’s effort to resurrect the negotiations is testimony to his supreme efforts to bring peace to Korean peninsula enduring the shadow of hostilities since 1953. Despite Moon’s massive diplomatic efforts, Strategists believe that Trump may not sign the Korean peace treaty before DPRK’s denuclearisation deal.

The dream of restoring peaceful regime in Korean peninsula need concerted efforts of not only both Koreas but all other stakeholders in the region. As a precondition for peninsular peace, America might be forced to pull its personnel from South Korea. This move might trigger Japan to follow a similar script. Together, this might necessarily reduce American foot print in Asia-Pacific. Clearly this can embolden China which is rapidly expanding its presence in the region. Trump’s off-cuff policies, fleeting approaches with regards to denuclearisation of DPRK needs a serious rethinking supported by a robust policy.

As of now, US delegation has reached Pyongyang to prepare for the summit.  While DPRK seems to be wanting America to make similar concessions it made to India, which is rather too much to ask. Trump’s distorted diplomatic approach will invariably turn DPRK into another Pakistan.

Further while Trump is keen on dismantling nuclear paraphernalia of DPRK, a report released by experts suggests that this whole process might take at least 10 years. Hence instead of an intrusive inspections and punitive economic sanctions, a phased approach synchronised with reciprocal concessions may be the best alternative. Report adds that mere assurances on paper may not suffice and perhaps “substantial period of coexistence and interdependence” might lead to logical denuclearisation.

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