Unravelling Sochi Summit

Asian realm is going through a season of informal talks. Since April, leaders in this part of the World have been engaging in direct, informal, agenda-less talks to foster friendship and understanding. This new trend of personalised diplomacy, spearheaded by leaders in recent times laid ground for friendly rapprochement between both Koreas, thaw in Indo-Chinese relations and recalibrating legitimate concerns of denuclearisation of Korean peninsula. Carrying forward this paradigm shift in global diplomacy, in less than a month after his informal summit with President Xi at Wuhan Prime Minister Narendra Modi headed to Sochi for a mini-informal summit with President Vladimir Putin. Putin who has taken charge as President for a record fourth time fortnight ago invited Modi for a meeting at the picturesque resort Sochi. Currently, informal summits have become mainstay of global diplomacy.

India and Soviet Union established diplomatic relations in 1947.  Despite, initial hiccups, geopolitical compulsions pushed both countries into a deep embrace. Subsequently, bolstering bilateral ties, India and Soviet Union signed friendship treaty in 1971 and both countries continued to maintain strong ties during Cold war era. But left in a lurch after Soviet Union’s collapse, India infused momentum into the Indo-US relations which began with a joint statement in 1978. Subsequent leaderships energised Indo-US ties by vigorously expanding areas of cooperation. Unlike the Indo-US ties, the mainstay of Indo-Russian bilateral ties is defence cooperation and Russian supplies accounted for over 70% of Indian defence purchases.  But owing to poor on-time deliverance, excessive reliance on Russia for weapons refurbishment and serviceability, India began to slowly diversify its purchases. Though Russia continues to be largest supplier of military equipment, its hardware now constitutes to 62% as compared to 79% in 2008-2012. US has emerged as the second largest defence supplier clinching over $15billion worth deals over the last decade. Consequently, US elevated India to major defence partner status on par with its NATO allies and both countries signed foundational agreements deepening bilateral ties. As a testimony to elevated strategic partnership, US agreed to sell advanced weaponised surveillance drones. Aggressive penetrative expansion of China and its overbearing hegemonistic aspirations forced America to strengthen ties with India as a counterweight to China. Soon, India became part of the Quad comprising of America, Japan and Australia keen on protecting the interests of Indo-Pacific region. India’s growing closeness with American left Russia disenchanted.

By the turn of century, reaffirming interest in renewing ties, India and Russia signed, “Declaration of India-Russia Strategic Partnership” in 2000, fortified friendship with annual summits. In 2010, countries elevated strategic partnership to “Special and Privileged Partnership”. Crippling economic sanctions on Russia post Crimean annexation in 2014 pushed Moscow into Chinese orbit. Throttled by slumping oil prices and economic downturn, Russia began to look for lucrative defence markets and zeroed in on Pakistan, arch enemy of India. Russia removed arms embargo on Islamabad in 2014 and steadily warmed up to Pakistan with plans for setting up Joint military commission in offing.  On the other hand, with America calling Pakistan’s bluff, disillusioned by growing Indo-US defence-oriented friendship, Islamabad found its calling in Russia which had similar concerns with regards to Taliban and geopolitical changes in the subcontinent. In December, Pakistan National Assembly hosted a six-nation conference which included Afghanistan, Russia, Turkey, China and Iran to discuss challenges of connectivity and counter terrorism. The joint declaration signed by all these nations underscored that, “for ensuring global and regional peace and stability, the issue of Jammu and Kashmir needs peaceful resolution by Pakistan and India in accordance with UNSC resolutions”. Since independence, Russia vetoed resolutions against Kashmir in UNSC. But Russia’s current posturing and sudden change of stance to favour China has irked India. Upping its pro-Chinese rants, Russian envoy Sergei Lavrov opined that India should be part of the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) notwithstanding its objections towards CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). Though Moscow would find it hard to let go India’s defence ties in lieu of its newfound warmth with Pakistan, Delhi is disconcerted by Russia’s overtures. A creeping misunderstanding began to seep into long standing Indo-Russian ties.

Intensifying its campaign Russia for alleged involvement in Syrian civil war and meddling in America’s presidential elections, US wanted to punish Russia and countries purchasing weapons from Moscow. On August 2^nd, President Trump signed into law, “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” CAATSA, which included North Korea and Iran as well. CAATSA is now posing impediments in India’s path of acquiring five S-400 Triumf surface to air missile systems critical for buttressing its ability to counter stealthy ballistic missiles from its adversaries across the two borders. The $5.5 billion deal inked in 2016, close to fruition after 54 weeks of long negotiations has come under American scanner. India has sought American waiver and yet to receive to any response despite Jim Mattis appeal that waiver can severely impact America’s relations with India. Sandwiched between two belligerent nuclear states, national interest, defence robustness will outweigh US good will for India.

Besides, Trump’s disruptive decision of reneging historic Iran nuclear deal which saw light of the day after fourteen years of diplomatic negotiations has exacerbated India’s troubles. Aside European allies- Germany, France, UK; China and Russia severely condemned Trump’s decision. Like India, Russia has strategic and connectivity interests with respect to Iran. India has heavily invested in development of Chabahar port, which is a vital connectivity link for Afghanistan and instrumental for seamless connectivity through International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) from Mumbai to St. Petersburg. Having announced imposition of pre-2015 sanctions on Iran, India is now deeply worried. Further Trump’s protectionist approach culminating in unleashing of trade tariff wars between US and China will have a grave impact on global economy. Sochi summit comes at a juncture when world order is witnessing turbulence. Honouring Putin’s invitation Modi made a one-day visit to Russia like his rendezvous with President Xi.  

Overwhelming American unilateralism nixed with protectionism has upset its staunch European allies who are now keen on reviving the Iran deal. Reposing renewed interest in stitching up a deal without America, Putin recently held informal summit meets with heads of state of France and Germany. Underpinning centrality of Indo-Russian relations, Putin has thus extended invitation to Modi on similar lines to carry out heart-to heart chat on contentious issues. Precisely, in his 9-hour long stay, Modi held talks with Putin at his residence in Sochi, visited Moya Russia-Ethno culture centre, addressed students at Sirius educational centre and took a yacht ride on Black Sea with Putin.

President Putin received Modi at Bocharev Creek. After exchange of warm handshakes and signature bear hug of Modi both leaders held in depth discussions on international issues. Besides, agreeing to work together through various multilateral organisations like UN, BRICS, G20, SCO, RIC (Russia India China), leaders expressed concerns over growing terrorism and radicalisation and stressed the need for a multipolar world. Both leaders stressed the need for restoring peace and stability in Afghanistan and agreed to institute strategic economic dialogue between NITI Aayog and Ministry of Economic Development of Russian Federation. They reiterated the need for strengthening economic ties to reach set target of $30billion bilateral trade and $25billion mutual investment by 2025. Sources indicate that India expressed interest in holding substantive talks for joining custom-free Eurasian Economic Union Zone and official talks will be initiated within few months. Leaders welcomed the arrival of first consignment of LNG of under the long-term agreement between Gazprom and GAIL next month. They reiterated the need for strengthening cooperation in military, security and nuclear cooperation. Consolidating Indo-Russian ties, countries agreed to work towards developing nuclear power plant at Roppar Bangladesh.

Economic sanctions, allegations of Russian interference in various elections across Europe has pushed Russia towards Beijing. When European countries literally alienated Russia by returning their envoys, India refused to take sides and maintained strategic silence.

Despite Russia’s growing closeness with China, it is reluctant to accept Beijing’s brinkmanship in the region and sceptical of its expansionism in its sphere of influence, Central Asian Countries. To counter its growing influence, Russia strongly supported India’s membership to SCO.  Russia, keen on expanding its foot print is now seeking to connect Indo-Pacific region with Eurasian region. It now emerges that Modi and Putin have agreed to bring out a strong proposal to fight terrorism in the upcoming SCO meet at Qingdao. Despite the growing misunderstandings in Indo-Russian bilateral trade, oil exports from Russia increased 10 times in 2017.

Wrapping up the summit meet, Modi took to twitter saying “extremely productive discussions with President Putin. We reviewed complete range of Indo-Russian relations as well as other global subjects. Friendship between India and Russia stood test of time. Our ties continue to scale newer heights in the coming days”. Finally, in a major departure from official protocol, Putin personally bid farewell to Modi at the airport. This bonhomie might be yet another new beginning for the time-tested Indo-Russian bilateral ties.

While the allegations of nerve gas attack on double agent Sergei Kripal and his daughter in UK severely dented Russian relations with European countries, Trump’s fickle-minded America First approach and disruptive policies are fostering a new understanding between Russia and European countries. Besides Trump’s inexplicable and illogical volte-face in contrast to Russian sturdy approach towards Syrian issue is finding new takers. Treaty allies of America and other countries which are affected by American sanctions are now hedging bets on Russia. This new dynamic global development resonates with India’s doctrine of multipolar World and Sochi summit has certainly laid a firm foundation for such a promising development. Quite unsurprisingly, Shinzo Abe, ally of US is next in line for an informal summit with Putin.

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