Asia is going through a major diplomatic churning and the day
April 27th, 2018 will be reckoned in history for being a witness to
three important events that can offer plausible solutions to long-festering
morass. While Indian subcontinent is deeply engrossed in evaluating Wuhan,
informal meet between Modi and Xi, the historic Korean-summit is capturing the
attention of the World. Besides, these
two pioneering developments, President Trump is going to hold talks with Angela
Merkel at White House regarding trade tariffs on Iron and Steel and the
historic Iran nuclear deal.
Korean leaders, Kim Jong Un of North Korea and Moon Jae-in of
South Korea met at the truce village of Panmunjom, South Korea, a demilitarised
zone (DMZ) separating two Koreas. The meeting is truly historic, as for the
first time, a North Korean leader has set foot on South since the Korean war of
1953. The handshake between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, grand son of Kim
Sung Il and his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in, son of North Korean
refugee who moved to South will go down in history as a fervent attempt by two
countries to unveil peace on the Korean peninsula. Kim accompanied by his
sister, Kim Jo Yong and inter-Korean relations head are warmly welcomed by
Moon, South Korean spy chief and chief of staff. The emotional meeting began
with Moon stepping into Northern side briefly, before leading Kim and his
delegation to the Peace Summit Building.
The Third Inter-Korean Summit is convened by leaders is
largely believed to set stage for the much-anticipated meeting between Kim and
President Trump next month. Another underlying interest of summit is to uphold
legacies of their predecessors: Kim’s mission of safeguarding dynasty and
Moon’s of unifying the peninsula. Days before the meet, Kim announced
moratorium on nuclear tests and pledged to dismantle the nuclear site
Pungyye-ri and revive economic development. In reciprocation, South turned off
propaganda devices at the DMZ zones. Interestingly, Kim hasn’t imposed a
precondition of evacuation of American troops from South Korea for talks. While
a display of harmonious reciprocity is ostensibly good news, hushed talks of
reunification are also mooted with interest. Though it may be premature to
comment anything in this regard, a survey conducted by Korea Institute for
National Unification last year showed that 71.2% of respondents in 20s opposed
reunification.
Inter-Korean Summits
As of now, Koreas held three Inter-Korean summits since 1953.
In 2000, South Korean President Kim-Dae Jung, who advocated Sunshine Policy
travelled to Pyongyang for talks with Kim Jong Il. Second summit too place between
Roh Moo-hyun and Kim Jong Il took place at Pyongyang in 2007. Seoul and
Pyongyang are 160 km away but the journey by flight took over one hour since it
flew over West Sea to avoid the heavily militarised zone between the countries.
Denouncing Cold war style politics, South Korea adopted Sunshine Policy and
generously aided the North and initiated various projects to foster economic
cooperation. Indeed, Kim-Dae Jung was awarded Nobel Peace Prize for his
reconciliatory approach. But the terms of engagement took a massive hit after
North Korea conducted first nuclear test in 2006. Despite, concerted opposition
of conservatives, Roh made last ditch attempt to reach out to North. But with
North remaining uncooperative, in 2010, conservatives who swept the elections,
stalled all aid programs and ended the Sunshine Policy. Moon, a supporter of
Sunshine policy served as presidential secretary to Roh. When North approached
South to broker peace deal, Moon who has several years of political experience
gladly agreed. Korean peninsula has been living under the shadow of war for
over six and half decades as Armistice of 1953, temporarily stopped the war but
formally didn’t end it.
To attend the third Korean summit, Kim walked into South
passing through DMZ. Leaders wished each other courteously and steered the
engagement personally. The leaders sat across 2018 centimetres table and had
freewheeling discussions accompanied by interpreters alone. After parting for
lunch and returning to their respective camps, leaders manured 65- year old
tree and had a private walk, beyond the range of microphones. While analysts
have been deeply sceptical of North Korean intentions, Kim effused warmth,
remained receptive and cordial. A day before the Summit, Kim reportedly said
that he wouldn’t need nuclear weapons if security of his government is
guaranteed and no nuclear power launches an attack.
Joint Declaration
In the joint declaration, both leaders pledged to end war.
Sharing the commitment of ending the era of confrontation and division, a relic
of cold war, they promised to lead the countries towards an era of conciliation,
peace and prosperity. They expressed desire to build and reconnect blood
relations and implement all agreements and declarations adopted by both the
sides. Both countries agreed to renew cooperation in various fields, encourage
development of people to people ties, stage joint events on important days and
jointly participate in international events. Agreement is reached to convene
Inter-Korean Red cross meeting to relocate and arrange for reunion of separated
families and to stop loud broadcast and distribution of leaflets along the
border region.
Militarily, they agreed to cease hostilities on all three
domains air, land and water and convert demilitarised zones into peace zone by
May 1st this year. Accordingly, Northern Limit Line in West Sea will
be turned into a maritime peace zone to avoid military clashes and ensure safe
fishing. To generate trust, both sides agreed for regular mutual exchanges,
visits and cooperation between the military authorities of both countries. As a
confidence building measure, both sides agreed to carry out phased disarmament.
Both countries decided to hold a trilateral or quadrilateral with US and China
to permanently declare end of war and establish a permanent peace regime.
Finally, both leaders reiterated their commitment towards complete de-nuclearization
for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula and sought the cooperation of international
community to realise the same. To invigorate friendship and trust, leaders
agreed to hold regular discussions, meetings and telephonic conversations. Truly,
Korean rapprochement seems to be enlivened by the tall promises and broad
smiles. But the million-dollar question remains…will Kim deliver on his
promises?
After signing the joint declaration, Kim said, “We will
make efforts to create good results by communicating closely, in order to make
sure our agreement signed today before the entire World, will not end just as a
beginning like previous agreements before today”.
Kim’s soft approach to avoid further ostracization and
isolationism is in sharp contrast to his intransigence in carrying out a
barrage of missile testings. Trump has been credited for the new shift in
stance of Kim for threatening North Korea with more crippling sanctions and
exerting pressure. Hailing this new historic summit Trump tweeted “KOREAN WAR TO END!!! The United
States and all of the GREAT people, should be now proud of what is taking place”. Interestingly, while Trump had made the right
moves, the road ahead seems to bumpy, riskier and augury.
American Dilemma
Till now North carried out six nuclear blasts (equal to
India’s nuclear tests), one intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing and
several rounds of missile blasts. Kim’s nuclear ambitions sent the countries in
its immediate vicinity into a tizzy. After the soaring success of the sixth
nuclear test and ICBM, and having completed development of nuclear weapons,
North began to climb down and attempted to broker a deal with South and
Washington. After Trump agreed for a formal meeting with Kim, he travelled to
China last month and promised to work towards peace and stability of the
region. There are four important stakeholders in the Korean issue besides two
Koreas-US, China, Japan and Russia. For both Koreas, summit is more about
rapprochement, ending the Korean war and bringing peace. Korean border is the
most heavily militarised border the in the World and both countries are in
suspended state of war ever since. US and Japan want near total verifiable,
nuclear disarmament. China and Russia, close allies of North Korea are closely
watching the developments.
Despite the optimism of Korean leaders, Kim is cognizant of
American’s manner of treating countries with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) like
Iraq and Libya. In 2015, 5+1 cut a verifiable, complete denuclearization deal,
JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. This deal had as of now
become prototype for dealing with nuclear belligerent state. But ever since
Trump assumed power, he adamantly castigated JCPOA as a “bad deal”. He
reluctantly signed a waiver suspending sanctions after much persuasion in
January. As per JCPOA, America must certify Iran every 120 days that it is
complying with set guidelines and sanctions need not be applied. Next approval
is due for May 12th. Trump has upped ante against Iran calling it a state
sponsor terror and urged European counterparts to make fresh changes in the
deal to rectify “disastrous flaws”.
European countries wary of dismantling the deal which was put
in place after years of persuasion and talks with Iran. To prevent unravelling
of JCPOA, French President Emmanuel Macron visited US tried to convince Trump
to uphold the JCPOA but failed. Trump threatened to tear the agreement. Iran
has now warned that it will pull out the agreement if US exits. Trump
persistence for making unilateral changes in negotiated document will create
fresh doubts for Kim who is immensely concerned about security of his
government.
Besides, tough stance on JCPOA is now creating new fissures
in its already fractured relations Russia and China. In a new development
reminiscent of cold war era, US and Russia are now modernising and developing
new and advanced missiles that can escape detection at an alarming pace and
resurrecting a fresh nuclear arms race. Appallingly the stakeholders of Korean
issue are bitterly divided. With Trump having agreed to hold talks with Kim work
is cut out for America. It must now productively engage and charting out
objective course of denuclearising Korean Peninsula.
While sceptics belied enthusiasm of Kim and snapped back that
North Korea has cut several deals with countries in the past but never honoured
them, Trump optimistically responded, “I don’t think he is playing…Its never
gone this far. This enthusiasm for them wanting to make a deal”. He added,
“We are going to hopefully make a deal. If we don’t that’s fine”. North
Korea denuclearization issue has become a nagging issue at a time when major
powers are unabashedly justifying proliferation of weapons to safeguard
national interests. At a time when world is enveloped by dark nuclear clouds,
can concerned stakeholders provide a peaceful solution for systematic
denuclearization of Korean peninsula? Also, how can outsmart an astute and
audacious Kim, who knows how to use his limited diplomatic leverage?
Successfully ending the summit, Korean leaders released joint
declaration after the banquet, watched a music performance which ended with
words “be a family again” and parted with warm farewells. Bonhomie of
the historic summit, reminded the World of a happily ever after kind of
scenario. But as a matter of fact, the long story of Korean saga, is yet to be
untangled...miles to go becomes the peninsula becomes nuclear free.
@ Copyrights reserved.
No comments:
Post a Comment