What to make of Modi-Xi informal meet at Wuhan

The Doklam standoff that lasted for 73 days brought India and China to the brink of war and severely crippled bilateral ties.  Ever since bilateral relationships witnessed a paradigm shift marked by a significant change in foreign policy stratagem. Undermining the animosities and shark differences India and China began to close in to each other. This was reflected in growing number of bilateral visits between the nations. Last December, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and State Councillor Yang Jiechi visited India which was closely followed by Indian Foreign Secretary, Vijay Gokhale’s trip to Beijing in February. In April, National Security Advisor and Special Representative for Border Issues, Ajit Doval visited China weeks ahead of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Minister of Defence Nirmala Sitharaman’s visit to Beijing for attending foreign ministers and defence ministers of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) members meeting respectively. Ever since escalation of Doklam issue till now both countries witnessed hectic diplomatic activity. The flurry of exchanges, together with MEA’s (Ministry of External Affairs) notice to Indian officials to stay away from official appointments of Dalai Lama has prompted strategists to suggest that India is probably seeking to “reset” its ties with China. These meeting are seen in the contest of setting stage for Prime Minister Modi’s meeting with president Xi at the SCO summit at Qingdao, China. Much to the surprise of strategists, Foreign Ministers of India and China at the SCO meeting announced an informal meeting between leaders of both countries at Wuhan, China on April 27^th and 28^th. This unprecedented development of Prime Minister Modi travelling to China twice in the gap of two months to hold meetings with Xi has surprised international community. While insiders, claim that efforts were underway for the past eight months for such an arrangement, approval of both leaders for such high-level engagement has increased chances for deepening of cooperation related to issues of common interests.

This informal meeting besides raising hopes for revival of ties on a plethora of issues, underscored the diplomatic astuteness of Modi and his signature style of building personal rapport with World leaders. India for long relied on the coterie of envoys to communicate and engage with countries, taking a break from this arrangement, both leaders, known to be “hard-headed nationalists” will reflect on bilateral issues. While the format of the meeting is not clear, it will be a close-door conversation between the leaders assisted by interpreters. No joint statement or document will be released. A person familiar with the plans said, “The intention of this is to ensure that at the leadership level there is a strategic communication. Both countries are emerging as important countries in the World, we are both neighbours. These are risks involved as well, therefore there is a need for discussions to mitigate and handle those differences and of course growing the relationship. I foresee a discussion that is focussed on the positives of the relationship.” Former Indian foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh said, “the format will give two leaders the room to discuss all issues without the weight of too much expectation. The discussions can be seen as the beginning of the resolution of problems rather than be seen as resolving all problems.”

Amidst talks to renewed engagement with China, India unequivocally expressed its reservations towards BRI (Belt Road Initiative) and CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) and stayed away from the joint communique issued after foreign Ministers SCO meeting on OBOR. Speaking at the Summit, Swaraj condemned the protectionism and stressed on the need for economic globalisation that is open, inclusive and equitable. While refraining from directly naming Pakistan, Swaraj, expressed concerns over burgeoning terrorism calling it “an enemy of basic human rights” and urged members of SCO to “identify and take strong measures against states that encourage, support and finance terrorism and provide sanctuary to terrorists and terror groups”. 

Upon hearing, India’s willingness for robust engagement with China and Modi’s informal meetings, China Observers contended that India is bending over backwards to appease China. But India’s categorical objections to certain sticky issues and uncompromising approach towards terrorism should allay fears of strategists who believe that India will toe Dragon’s line hence forth. It must be recalled that the heightened escalations during the border stand-off could be remarkably quelled due to the proactive diplomatic approach embraced by both countries. Days before the Xiamen, BRICS Summit in 2017, NSAs of both countries held close diplomatic talks paving way for cooling heels over the Doklam issue.

In the meanwhile, the Global Times, Chinese official mouth piece began creating a new paradigm saying, “India is dissatisfied with the US definition of the strategy (Indo-Pacific strategy). India has also realised that the huge gap between China and India and worries that China will take even tougher measures against India which may hinder India’s domestic development”. It added, “changes of India’s China policy are tactical, not strategic, as India’s traditional hegemonic and cold war mentality has not changed. The Modi government thinks that India should become a leading country rather than simply a balancer. India believes that China is India’s geopolitical rival”. China always believed to putting the blame on somebody else for its aggression and this outburst of Global Times is no different. But this statement makes it amply clear that Beijing is ruffled by India’s proactive diplomatic engagements with various regional groupings. China is intimidated by revival of Quad, strengthening of Act East Policy and consolidating ties with ASEAN countries, India’s renewed engagement with European countries. This was reflected in the closing statement of Global Times saying, “The warming of ties between China and India is out of the needs of both countries”.

Beijing which is now profligate about its global domination strongly believes the West is playing India against Beijing to contain it. Reflecting Dragon’s wariness, The Global Times, in an editorial spluttered “The US and Japan began underscoring Indo-Pacific strategy last year in an explicit attempt to rope in India against China. But the strategy hasn’t brought India any strategic benefit except to trigger vigilance between New Delhi and Beijing. Indian elites now realise that India shouldn’t develop cooperation with the US at the cost of ties with China…. The West wanted India and China to confront each other. But it didn’t work that way. Asian powers and emerging countries both China and India share common interests in international affairs. They both have to strive for the right to develop and face Western pressure on issues like trade and intellectual property rights. There is large room for economic cooperation. China and India have more robust economic development than other emerging countries and both are independent”.

Since Doklam, there has been phenomenal global power shift. Hardening protectionist approach, President Trump in a show of economic aggression announced imposition of 25% tariffs on Chinese products for its “unfair economic practices”. China began to feel the heat of tariffs and announced counter tariffs. But being the largest exporter, China will stand to lose in the trade tariff war. In the aftermath of US trade threats, China for the first time in eight years, held trade talks with Japan. Wrapping up trade talks, China and Japan agreed to improve ties with leaders of both countries planning to pay reciprocal visits. They even planned a trilateral summit involving South Korean leaders. During his election campaign, Trump criticised Japan, Vietnam and India for persistent trade deficit and now China has intensified trade talks with all these countries.  US trade threats has brought about a stark change in China’s approach towards India.

Aside, issues of trade, US security observers are now raising alarm over growing Chinese hegemony in the South China Sea (SCS). In the first week of April, as a message to Taiwan and show of support to Russia, China conducted biggest ever Naval exercise in the SCS and surprise live-fire drill near Taiwan Straits. Around the same time, USS Theodore Roosevelt along with 20 F-18 Super Hornet Fighter jets performed landing exercises on their way to Philippines water. US also announced expansion of annual military exercises with Philippines to include Japan and Australia. Newly nominated Pacific Command Chief, Philip Davidson called for fielding and developing strong force posture to “counter Chinese malign influence in the region”. He even warned US of China’s weaponization of space, improving ballistic missile technology and cyber capabilities. Australia expressed similar concerns and willingness to join hands with US. Escalation of trade war, US imposed sanctions on the sale of ZTE manufactured mobile phones for violating US sanctions against North Korea and Iran has flustered China. Interestingly, last year having violated the sanctions, ZTE agreed to punish the concerned employees and agreed to pay $1.2 billion fine. But China backtracked and hence US commerce department announced a ban on the sale of mobiles for seven years.

While nothing much has changed between India and China in the past one year, Trump’s bolder stance on trade issues, North Korea’s coming out of China’s cudgels and reaching out to US has altered the geopolitical game for China. Notwithstanding towering Chinese influence, both Koreas displayed gumption to initiate peace talks. This substantially reduced the invincibility and influence of China in Asia. Europe is too waking up to pervading Chinese presence in the region. Bereft of any other option, smaller countries have grudgingly accepted Chinese rise. But now, the warnings of international agencies of China’s slumping growth rate coupled with high debt levels staring at possibility of financial crisis might be at the root of new game of seeking rapprochement. Also, India’s formidable opposition towards BRI is gaining more prominence with Europe which is seriously reassessing China’s real motives pertaining to global connectivity initiative.

International community is closely observing new found cordiality of Asian giants. Wuhan meeting will offer unique opportunity for leaders to reflect on sticking points and improve strategic communication. India understands that China will not make concessions but there can be possibility of negotiations over issues of conflicting interests. China expects India to endorse its new global status while India is growing wary of increased Chinese penetration into its exclusive spheres of continental and maritime influence. Both countries are grappling for influence in subcontinental region. Sources indicate that Pakistan and Tibet issues might dominate the agenda of talks. Chinese strategist Zhao Gancheng, suggested that Wuhan meeting will seek to “promote economic cooperation between the two largest developing countries amid US driven anti-globalisation trend, and mechanism to safeguard peace and avoid border disputes”. India’s perceived closeness with US and its rising global influence makes New Delhi, an important strategic partner hard to ignore. Endorsing India’s growing stature, Global Times known for its distasteful antipathy carried a conciliatory article saying, “China’s strategic indifference towards India and India’s strategic sensitivity towards China have always existed. These attitudes are rapidly becoming major obstacles towards development of the two countries. The more they develop, the more serious strategic anxiety on the other side and greater the security burden unless positions are addressed, and traditional notions of geopolitical competition are abandoned”. While a constructive diplomatic engagement with China is good, India mustn’t give into Chinese pressure.

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