North Korean President Kim Jong
Un’s sudden visit to China has surprised strategists World over. The visit
which comes days after US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim have
agreed for a one on one meeting in May. Strategists who anticipated a
rendezvous between two unpredictable honchos, Kim-Trump, would create a rift in
North Korea and China alliance and Beijing’s consequent isolation were
flabbergasted by this unplanned visit. The Kim-Trump Summit which was expected
to force North Korea into giving up nuclear option under pressure now seems a
far-fetched idea.
North Korea, under Kim Jong Un, become
an embodiment of uncertainty started showing signs of change of tack since the
beginning of 2018. The country which has severed ties with almost all countries
displayed signs of amiability and rapprochement. In February, Kim Jong’s sister
travelled to South Korea along with official North Korean delegation to attend
the opening ceremony of winter Olympics signaling a marked departure from Kim’s
ostensible bellicosity. Aside cheering unified Korean hockey team, North Korean
delegation carried an invitation from Kim to South Korean President to visit
their country and expressed willingness for talks. Though Moon, didn’t accept
the invitation immediately, Kim’s change in approach has raised hopes of peace
returning to the region threatened by nuclear ambitions of Kim. Within a
fortnight, South Korean delegation visited Kim who offered to suspend nuclear
and ballistic tests.
South Korean officials later handed
over Kim’s invitation for talks to President Trump paving way for Kim-Trump
summit meet in May. It was also agreed that Kim would meet President Moon in
April. While these propitious developments added fresh impetus towards
denuclearization of the Korean the possibility of Kim meeting President Xi
before all his official bilateral talks was unexpected. Peace eluded this
region ever since Kim put North Korea on the path of uninterrupted nuclear and
missile testing. Despite renewed economic sanctions and massive international
campaigning against the tyrannical regime of Kim, North Korea refused to bow
down. North Korean economy stayed afloat
by virtue of bilateral trade with its biggest trading partner and iron-brother
China.
Notwithstanding UNSC sanctions,
China for long continued to trade with North Korea which nearly met 90% met of Pyongyang’s
requirements. China turned blind eye to massive black-marketing flourishing
along the China-Korea border and even failed to plug the financial conduits
operating from its territory despite US’s repeated requests. But when Kim tried
to override China and attempted to build direct parleys with US, China froze
petroleum exports to North Korea bringing Pyongyang to its knees. The extent of
cuts imposed by China were to a tune of 89%. Financial
Times, in article illustrates that cuts are now 90% compared to
last years on petroleum and extended them to exports of Coal, steel, motor
vehicles. Ruffled by Kim’s diplomatic flurry, China wanted to remind Pyongyang
of its economic leverage forcing it to come to the negotiating table. China
simply doesn’t want to miss the chance of playing a crucial role in resolving
the crisis in the region which has rattled countries like Japan and South
Korea, both allies of US. Kim’s nuclear ambitions irked its allies China and
Russia, to say the least.
Like Pakistan, North Korea had
iron-brother friendship with China. Huge numbers of Chinese troops fought for
North Korea during the Korean war in 1950 against the US. Referring to friendship
between China and North Korea, Mao Zedong, said, the two countries are like “lips and teeth”. DPRK’s path to nuclear
weapon obsession can be traced back to 1953, Armistice of Korean war which left
a deep impression on North Korean leader, Kim Il Sung who believed nuclear
weapon accumulation alone deter American aggression. DPRK’s animosity towards
America stems from the fact that US emerged as a big obstacle for unification
of both Koreas. Soon, a determined DPRK partnered with, its ideological
compatriot Soviet Union for developing weapons. By 1963 when countries were
lining up the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, North Korea refused to sign and
kept its nuclear options open. Seeking Soviet Union’s help DPRK developed a
small nuclear reactor by 1965. US invasion of Vietnam in 1969 prompted North
Korea to steadily hold on to the path of developing nuclear technology. North
Korea, sandwiched between the two Communist logger heads, had on and off cordial
relations with both the giants. Despite receiving help from China and Soviet
Union, DPRK rarely acknowledged their support.
Following China’s military
assistance at the height of Korean war, DPRK maintained close relations with
the big brother. Between 1953-60, DPRK had warm relations with China which
extend military aid. Sino-Russian conflict eventually changed this equation. In
1960s during the Sino-Soviet conflict, Soviet Union forced DPRK to side with it
in return for greater military aid. But slowly the aid began to taper under
Gorbachev and relations worsened after the fall of Soviet Union when Boris
Yeltsin refused to provide support to DPRK and favored South Korea instead.
Bilateral ties received a new fillip when President Putin and Kim Jong-il
signed Treaty on Friendship, Good neighborly relations and cooperation in 2000.
But bilateral ties suffered a new hit after Russia joined China, US, UK,
France, Japan and South Korea for initiating sanctions against DPRK following
its first nuclear test in 2006. Unlike other countries, Russia and China never
supported use of force against DPRK since they had porous borders with DPRK.
DPRK tried to maintain good relations with Russia and continued to engage with
it for the fear of total global ostracization and successfully concluded border
treaty with Russia in 2012. But the latest nuclear tests in 2016 irked Russia
who categorically supported imposition of fresh round of sanctions on DPRK.
DPRK’s relations with China varied
from being congenial to baited suspicion. In 1956, pro-China fractions in DPRK,
attempted to throw away Kim Il Sung from power. This incident created fears of
Chinese interference in DPRK. But later in 1961 DPRK signed Sino-North Korean
Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty mandating China to render military
assistance in case of an foreign attack on DPRK. The treaty was extended twice
in 1981 and 2001 and is valid till 2021. By mid 1960s bilateral ties with China
moved south with DPRK deriding Mao’s Cultural Revolution. Despite occasions of
fractures in relationship, China tried to put up with DPRK’s tantrums as
Pyongyang was pivotal for its strategic interests. China feared the prospect of
huge exodus of North Korean refugees entering its territory. Hence post-Korean
war, China donated funds to DPRK for reconstruction and economic development of
DPRK. Also, with thousands of American troops stationed in South Korea, China was
perennially wary of a plausible American aggression and spread of American
influence in the region. Sino-DPRK relations turned tumultuous when China
established diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1992. Angered DPRK again
turned back to Russia, but in vain. In course of its existence as Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Korea always played Russian card with China
and vice-versa. It oscillated back and forth shifting its allegiances between
the two countries. It meticulously enacted several tricks to stay afloat with
dreams firmly fixed on making itself a nuclear state capable of defending
itself against any external aggression. DPRK has mastered brinkmanship and
smart diplomacy for its existence. Alternatively, even China and Russia have
employed economic coercion to contain the belligerent attitude of DPRK. In
2017, when China tightened exports to Pyongyang, it turned to Russia grudgingly
and named it as its major international ally. But currently, with Russia facing
severe international censure over alleged chemical usage on Russia spy Sergei
Skripal and China determined to bring DPRK to knees, Kim has exhausted all his
options.
The Korean crisis potentially
disrupted the peace and security of the North East Asia directly affecting the
national interests of six parties-both Koreas, Japan, China, Russia, and United
States. Of these six countries, China and DPRK have been drawing greater
mileage out this crisis. Owing to its greater economic and strategic leverage
over DPRK, China’s besides partially tightening sanctions, resorted to
inordinate bargaining with US and Japan. Threatened by DPRK’s nuclear escalation,
Japan tacitly agreed to support OBOR. China eventually had a way with America.
China slowly began to have an upper hand over despotic Kim. Smart, brutish Kim,
instead of buckling under Chinese pressure, having accumulated sufficient
nuclear arsenal, determinedly reached out South Korea to rescue it economy from
near total financial bankruptcy. Prudently, Kim reached out to US through South
Korea and sought American nod for a summit meeting. To assure the West of
DPRK’s keenness for a diplomatic solution for resolving Korean crisis, Kim made
his first diplomatic move.
Kim’s trip to China, his first
state visit to a foreign country since assuming reigns of the country in 2011 is
thus a master stroke. The move no less than an appeasement hasn’t reduced the
prominence of China at the negotiation table but earned Kim an invitation from
South Korea and Japan for talks. Upon
meeting President Xi, Kim effusively praised him saying that he was “greatly encouraged and inspired by his views” , struck
a positive note and ensured China got the honor of being the peacemaker. Xinhua news
reports that Kim said, “It is
our consistent stand to be committed to denuclearization on the peninsula, in
accordance with the will of late President Kim Sung Il and late general
secretary Kim Jong-Il. The issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula
can be resolved, if South Korea and the United States respond to our efforts
with good will, create an atmosphere of peace and stability while taking
progressive and synchronous measures for realization of peace”. Kim also
extracted public affirmation from Xi that “no matter how the international and regional situation changes”
China would continue to maintain strong relations with DPRK.
To make best out the whole
situation, despite Xi’s intense dislike for Kim, China extended red carpet
welcome, ensured tight security and secrecy, made the details of the trip
public only after Kim left Beijing as agreed earlier. Much ahead of the uphill
task of peace negotiations with President Trump, Kim wooed China. Beijing will
now be hard pressed to support DPRK. It is now obligated not to adopt a harsh
stance and stifle DPRK by tightening flow of essential supplies. By resetting
ties with China, Kim strengthened his position and speeded up chances of
restoration of peace in Korean peninsula without forgoing his strategic
autonomy.
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