Putin’s enviable fourth term win

Vladimir Putin is reelected as President for the fourth time in the polls conducted on Sunday. Despite being labelled an “autocrat” by the West, the popularity of Putin among Russians stands undiminished. In an election with a voter turnout of 68%, Putin obtained 77% of the votes. Unparalleled people’s support vouches for their trust in Putin’s leadership who is considered as an embodiment of Russian unity and determination. Eighteen years into power, Putin slowly evolved as the supreme commander of Russia, controlling all fronts. The current Presidential contest involved seven other candidates who barely managed to put up any fight. Putin’s nearest rival, Communist Party leader Pavel Grundinin obtained 12% votes, ultra nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky finished with 6% votes and the TV presenter Ksenia Sobchak registered 1.5% votes and others had less than single percentage point of votes. Ahead of elections, Putin’s fiercest rival Alexei Navalny, who was believed to a potential electoral rival was debarred from running elections. Navalny, an, anti-corruption crusader was arrested and jailed for carrying out an unapproved protest. Reflecting on election results, opposition questioned its legitimacy and alleged widespread ballot stuffing, coercion and forced voting. Regardless of the charges, elections observers by and large ruled that elections are conducted in transparent but controlled environment. The whopping majority of Putin in his fourth term has put all doubts about his domination to rest. He has been eloquently bettering his performance in terms of percentage of vote gain. His winning margins in previous elections were 65, 71, 52   76% vote share respectively.

By winning recent elections for the unprecedented fourth time, Putin will stay in power till 2024. A landslide victory for Putin for the fourth time exemplified his unassailable popularity and unwillingness of Russians to elect any other leader. This can portend well for Putin’s aspirations of continuing to lead Russia beyond 2024. But his invincibility in the elections, has raised doubts of Chinese kind of abolition of Presidential term limits in Russia as well. Since Russian constitution forbids more than two consecutive Presidential terms, opposition hinted at a possible constitutional amendment. But Russian experts offered two different perspectives about Putin’s future course of action. While the West out rightly declared that Putin might mull becoming president for life, ahead of elections, insiders opined that “Putin doesn’t want to be remembered for changing constitution”. If he wants to remain President, he might do it “more elegantly” than China. Putin might transfer power to someone who is very loyal to him, the way he did in 2008.  Putin elected to power in 2000 served for two terms till 2008. Abiding the constitutionally imposed limit on Presidentship, he installed Dmitri Medvedev as President in 2008 and remained as Prime Minister. But returned to power in 2012.  Having tested this power transition exercise to be rewarding Putin might prefer transferring of power by 2024 to reclaim it back by fighting elections again in 2030.  Putin is now the longest serving President since Joseph Stalin. Hence colloquially, Russians no longer call him President any more, but a leader or Vozd, a title conferred on Stalin. Though Putin rubbished any thoughts of contesting elections in 2030, with electorate clearly not looking for any modernization or change, Putin can continue to be in power interminably. Why the West still prefers to label Putin as despotic dictator, for Russian he has been a cult figure whose sterling efforts in resurrecting Russian pride are hailed.

In the past 18 years, Putin tightened his grip on governance and smartly overpowered a disunited opposition. Though he was liberal initially steadily he imposes curbs on freedom, increased government control over economy and businesses. Despite his over bearing approach, people strongly rally behind Putin because of his confrontational approach towards the West and his unflinching determination to reclaim lost glory of Soviet Union.

Putin, who was KGB agent posted at East Germany steadily climbed up to highest positions of power. Having witnessed the fall of Berlin wall, as lieutenant Colonel which marked the beginning of fall of Soviet Union, he was deeply affected by the humiliation suffered by collapse of Soviet Union.  Soon, Putin moved to Russia and became deputy mayor of St.Petersburg by 1996. After the collapse of the Union in 1990, Boris Yeltsin introduced economic reforms that brought some stability and facilitated Russia’s integration with international community. While the Russian economy was in doldrums, NATO continued to expand, and the reunified Germany joined the NATO. Later US managed to draw all other Warsaw pact states (Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania) into its ambit.  Despite Russia’s repeated warning, the West continued to push its frontiers East wards. Though Russians felt provoked, the financial crisis of 1998 hit them hard and reforms ended reversing all gains. Around the same time, US informed Russia of its intentions to bomb, to protect Muslim population in Kosovo. Yeltsin strongly opposed the move, but US went ahead.  Russia felt threatened and betrayed. Russia had strong historical and ideological connect with Serbia, a Slavic orthodox country. US led NATO led bombing of Serbia exacerbated, Russian mistrust towards the West. To handle this precarious situation, Yeltsin appointed Putin as Prime Minister in 1999. Putin instead of taking refuge in any ideology, invoked nationalism, constantly reminded people of Russia’s superpower status.

When Putin took over as Prime Minister, Russian troops having suffered humiliating defeat at the hands of Chechnya in 1996 lost all hopes. He motivated and boosted their morale and waged second Chechen war restoring Moscow’s federal control over the territory. Russian victory catapulted Putin to presidential post in 2000. Ever since, Putin began to consolidate his position as a formidable leader through various military campaigns. Russian interventions in Georgia, Moldova, both part of erstwhile Soviet Union which declared independence after 1991 have been part of reasserting Russian glory. Annexation of former Russian vassal states was never part of Putin’s agenda. Hence, when former breakaway states, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine made elaborate plans to join the Western Alliance, Putin breached their territories making them unattractive to the West. NATO rejects countries with unresolved or internal conflicts and insufficient military defenses. Putin who vociferously rejected US-led world order advocated “multipolar world” and strived to guard Russian realm of influence from Western penetration. At a time when the West began to undermine Russian sphere of influence, Putin dented their aspirations from a position of weakness.

Under Putin, Russian economy showed signs of recovery by early 2000s as prices of oil and gas, main drivers of economy rose considerably. Though high oil prices rejuvenated the economy, past four years of economic sanctions slowed economic growth. Russian economy rate currently is 1.4% much lower than US and EU countries. Economic reforms boosting investment flow into Russia can effectively revamp the economic distress. With private firms mired in red tape business climate is dampened. Also, Putin indirectly controls a huge network of corrupt feudal lords, influential industrialists, and bankers that run the economy. If they pledge loyalty to Kremlin, Putin hardly intervenes in their business interests. To have a “personalized system of rule” he installed bureaucrats loyal to him as head of state companies.

Post Crimean annexation, even in the face of debilitating economic sanctions, Putin refused to backdown. Despite severe financial crunches, Putin refused to retreat from the global order. On the contrary, he ratcheted up cooperation with countries and rallied against the West. In the process, he cozied up to President Xi of China. At the height of Syrian war, Russia intervened in the war and cogently changed the dimensions of the conflict. Much ahead of UN meetings, Russia held Syrian peace talks at Asthana supported by Iran and Turkey, a NATO member positioning itself as strategic competitor for the West. Putin has thus been clearly outsmarting the west. Undaunted by weak economy and isolation, Putin refused to lie low and relentlessly confronted the West. Resurgence of nationalism and unyielding approach of Putin has earned him unwavering faith of instinctive Russians who feel threatened by United States.

Weeks before election, Putin casted US as an existential threat and rejuvenated Presidential campaign by unveiling an array of Russian nuclear-capable weapons which included Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM)s and intercontinental hypersonic missile. Proclaiming that American nuclear strategy has raised concerns in Russia, Putin added, “Our policy will never be based on exceptionalism, we just protect our own interests”.

Putin’s victory which has been along expected lines received muted congratulatory messages from across the world. Predictably so, the West is irrevocably miffed with Russia. Russia which is under scanner for its alleged involvement in American elections, France and Germany elections is now facing the ire of Britain for alleged poisoning of double-agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter at Salisbury on March 4^th.  While the doping charges and eventual banning of Russian athletes from Winter Olympics tarnished Russian image beyond repair, Crimean Annexation, Ukraine Conflict earned Moscow international economic sanctions. Russian involvement in Syria invited West’s wrath which touched a new crescendo with Moscow’s suspected use of Novichok, a nerve agent on former Russian spy. As a retaliatory measure, Britain has expelled 23 diplomats and warned of Royal boycott of upcoming FIFA cup at Russia. It even mulled seizing investments of Russian oligarchs in Britain. Last week US, Germany and France supported Britain’s charges of Russian attempts to assassinate a spy. Clearly, Russia’s relations with Europe have deteriorated from bad to worse. Besides, these open confrontations, Europe is worried of burgeoning Russian influence across EU countries. In what is termed as Putinism, Europe believes both the far-left and far-right parties which are making fresh grounds in elections are sympathetic towards Putin. Europe is largely divided over Putin’s re-election. Outside Europe leaders from China, Japan, Venezuela, and Iran have sent congratulatory message to Putin.

For India, Russia has been a longstanding defense partner, an ally and friend. But of late, Russia is favoring Pakistan to curry favor China and to find new market for its weapons. Recent SPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) reports shows that Russian arms exports have slumped. The burden of Syrian intervention, low oil demand, loss entailed due to cancellation of the fifth-generation fighter deal with India began to affect the financial inflows. Together, all these factors led to a conspicuous Russian drift towards Pakistan. At the Heart of Asia summit, 2017, Russian Ambassador Sergei Lavrov opined that India should be part of OBOR. He expressed displeasure over India’s renewed engagement with US, Japan, Australia under the quadrilateral arrangement. Clearly, changing geopolitical scenario are pulling India and Russia apart and divergences have been on a rise. Donald Trump’s initial rapprochement towards Russia brought some cheer to India but this short- lived optimism have made way for bitter acrimony with US-led Western world increasing locking horns with Russia over a range of issues. To make its global presence more relevant, Russia began allying with China complicating the whole tangle for India. Despite seeping divergences, India must continue to engage with Putin led Russia as nearly 70% of its defense acquisitions are of Russian origin. Notably, Russia has consistently supported India stance on Kashmir at UN. To iron-out any differences and lay ground for fruitful engagement, Indian defence minister is traveling to Russia by the end of April. In tune with changing geopolitical realms, India must evolve a long term strategic plan to balance its relations with the West and Russia under “the invincible Putin”.

@ Copyrights reserved.