Trouncing speculations of big league
media houses, Shinzo Abe clinched super majority to become Prime Minister of
Japan for the fourth time. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its
partner Komeito obtained two-third majority in the elections to the Lower
House. Amidst allegations of scandals in education subsidy, Abe called for snap
polls a year early and dissolved the house last month. Abe with its coalition
partner won 310 seats in 465-member house and secured 33.2% vote in an election
with electoral turnout of 53.7%. This win would not only strengthen his
position in the party but will make him the longest serving Prime Minister of
Japan. He will now be elected as President of LDP in 2018 for third term and
might continue as prime minister till 2021. He will thus oversee 2020 Tokyo
summer Olympics.
Analysts predicted a tough ride for
Abe as Yuriko Koike, former LDP leader formed her own party, Party of Hope
which attracted many democrats. Going by her initial approval ratings, she was
tipped as a firm challenger. But people voted Abe who represented stability.
All Abe’s predecessors except Fukuda served for not more than sixteen months in
office. Further, Abe’s hawkish approach in face of impending threats from North
Korea positioned him as a strategic leader amongst a disarrayed opposition. Besides,
Donald Trump’s transactional approach and his uncharitable remarks towards US
allies, burgeoning Chinese belligerence and aggressive nuclear launches rattled
Japanese voters who found succor in Abe’s hawkish foreign policy. Despite serious
disagreement with his policies, voters rallied behind Abe. Allaying insecurities
of voters, Abe pledged to tackle twin national crisis of North Korean threat
and aging population immediately after the electoral win. Interestingly, the
slew of economic reforms, termed Abenomics infused new momentum in stagnant
Japanese economy which is now showing signs of recovery. For the past three
quarters Japan is witnessing a consistent upward swing in growth.
Abe already has two-thirds majority
in Upper House. An overwhelming win in the polls to lower house ensured LDP a
majority in both houses needed for constitutional amends. This would augur well
for Abe’s aspiration of amending pacifist provision of Article 9 in post-World
War Japan’s constitution which rules that “aspiring
sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese
people forever renounce war as sovereign right of the nation and threat or use
of forces as means of settling disputes. To accomplish the above, land, sea,
and air forces as well as other war potential will be maintained. The right of
belligerency of the state will not be recognized.” Japan thus maintain defacto
armed force or self-defense forces. In 2014 Diet allowed minor reinterpretation
allowing Japan’s self-defense forces to defend allies. A year later, Parliament
approved self-defense forces to provide material support to allies engaged in
international combats. US welcomed Japan’s move while China and South Korea
disapproved the same. Of late, the geopolitical scenario of the region is
charged up with North Korea issuing direct threats to Japan. Even now, a clear majority
is still averse to making any changes in Constitution since they believe that
pacifist clause paved way for resurrection of Japan. Though Abe hasn’t
contemplated on his recourse towards constitutional amendments during election
campaign, he aims to increase public awareness, foster discussions for incorporate
new changes.
Abe’s thumping win is good news for
India. He has been a strong pillar for building strategic partnership with
India since 2006. In 2006 he envisaged “Arc
of Freedom and Prosperity” a multilateral framework comprising of Japan,
India, US, and Australia but couldn’t pursue it as he resigned as Prime
Minister due to ill health. In 2012, just before assuming power Abe proposed “strategic security diamond” of four
democratic countries including India to protect the maritime interests of
Indo-Pacific region. Japan believed that with rise of China, strategic power of
UA has weakened. Since it doesn’t have full-fledged army, Japan wanted to
develop security networks to compensate weakening influence of America in Asia.
Japan considered India a formidable Asian partner in building regional
consensus and containing China. Narendra Modi, who envisioned a dynamic foreign
policy of diversifying India’s ties reached out to Abe with no-holds barred
approach right from his first state visit to Japan. He reciprocated Abe’s push
for regional security with equal gusto. In 2014, India invited Japan to join
the joint Indo-US Malabar Naval exercises and institutionalized its
participation. Annual trilateral exercises since 2015 began to draw ire from
China.
Both Modi and Abe, right-wing
leaders, regarded as staunch nationalists and known for their hawkish approach
share exemplar chemistry. Modi-Abe chemistry infused new trust and confidence
into Indo-Japanese bilateral ties. Abe’s rise and winning mandate will bode
well for India with both countries agreeing to expand the sectors of
cooperation. In fact, the landmark Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement with
Japan, emerged as shining example of evolving strategic partnership. India and Japan
jointly launched economic cooperation agreement in May to boost growth in
Africa through Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), regarded as an alternative
to BRI. As India attempts to counter penetrating influence of China, Japan
roiled by China’s claims over Senkaku Islands can be a reliable partner. At the
height of Doklam standoff, Japan jumped in and supported India, the only
country to do so. Moreover, US donning pacifism pulled out of TPP (Trans
pacific partnership), Paris Climate Agreement and UNESCO ceding more space to
China. With an imminent and overwhelming emergence of China and receding influence
of America in Asia, India and Japan can strategically collaborate to counter
China.
India and Japan are keen on fostering
economic partnership. India’s demographic dividend can supplant the ageing
population crisis of Japan. Similarly, Japan’s scientific and technological
expertise and stagnant economy can find new avenues in Modi’s ambitious Make in
India project. Besides, India and Japan can invest together in various
infrastructure developments in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, partner North-South
Corridor connectivity network. Indo-Japan bilateral partnership currently is at
all-time high. Japan aided India’s bullet train project financially and pledged
to transfer technology. While India is planning to send three lakh youth to
Japan for training under the government skills development project. With the
Asian geopolitical witnessing turbulence and overriding Chinese aggression,
both India and Japan will likely prefer a strategic embrace.
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