The quinquennial six-day long 19th Congress of
Communist Party of China concluded shortly with no unexpected surprises. The
largest congregation of Communist delegates from across China who unanimously
approved extension of second term for President Xi, witnessed the selection of
the Party’s Central committee, 25-member politburo, 11-member Central Military
Commission and seven-member apex politburo standing committee (PSC). As has been the tradition, the
decision-making body, PSC should include the successor to Xi and hence
countries eagerly waited for the announcement of the apex body. Aside,
President Xi and Premier Li Keqiang, the revamped PSC had leaders who can’t be
prospective successor to Xi. All the members of PSC are aged between 60 and 67-Li
Zhanshu (67), Vice premier Wang Yang (62), Wang Huning (62), Zhao Leji (60),
Han Zheng (63) and hence don’t stand a chance to serve for a customary decade
to become President, as age of retirement is fixed at 68. Composition of new
PSC strengthened the speculation that Xi would defy the tradition and rule
beyond the second. While Chinese media widely commended political showdown as a
show of openness and transparency, the names of the PSC members were so
secretly guarded that none had a clue of its composition till the members were
escorted on to the stage. Incidentally, with extension of term Xi has become
become head of party, country, and military.
On the opening day of the Congress, apprising the 2300
delegates of the achievements and enunciating a new vision for China, Xi spoke
for 205 minutes. He promised to strengthen the economy, encourage innovation,
boost domestic consumption and “support growth of private businesses”. But
months ahead of his coronation, Xi targeted Chinese business tycoons who challenged
the party. Worried of wealthy entrepreneurs gaining control over national
assets, which resulted in rise of oligarchy in Soviet Union, after its
collapse, Xi began to corral Chinese businessmen. Despite Chinese government’s
attempts to silence, there are reports of sudden disappearance of billionaire
entrepreneurs. In
past five years, Xi successfully decimated potential political rivals by
thrusting corruption charges. Under the guise of anti-corruption campaign, Xi
took action against 1.4 million communist
party workers and
firmed up his control over the party (some Indian newspapers hailed this drive
as disciplining). He detained human rights activists, crushed dissidence with
impunity and overhauled military by replacing several officers with his
loyalists in June. He eventually asserted control over every sphere of
governance.
Hailing the global connectivity project OBOR (One Belt One
Road), Xi asserted “China’s development doesn’t
pose a threat to any country. No matter what stage of development it reaches,
China will never seek hegemony or engage in expansion”. Ironically, Chinese ambitions of entering the
Indian Ocean Region, through infrastructure development projects in Sri Lanka
has pushed Colombo into debt nation. Now nations like Cambodia, Laos are likely
to join the same league. China has been aggressively funding projects in all
aforementioned countries under OBOR. In the same length Xi elaborated, “China will never pursue development at the
expense of others interests, nor will China ever give up its legitimate rights
and interests”. Apparently, CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor), a
glowing example of China’s developmental interests threatens the territorial
sovereignty of India. Despite New Delhi’s repeated objections, China chose to
trample India’s claims and refused to at least change the name of project.
To allay fears of neighboring nations, Xi pledged “We should commit to settling disputes
through dialogue and resolving differences through discussion, coordinate
responses to traditional and non-traditional threats and oppose terrorism in
all its forms”. China’s territorial claims to 90% of SCS (South China Sea)
rattled its smaller neighbors. After China occupied Scarborough Island,
Philippines pulled up China to Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) and when
the verdict was delivered in favor of Philippines, China refused to accept the
order. Instead, it coerced Philippines and wooed it with investments. Further,
Xi highlighted China’s land reclamation spree in SCS as major achievement of
his first term signaling that Asian countries must ready to accept the
aggressive expansion of China. Regarding the promise of coordinating responses
to combat terrorism, Beijing has been vetoing India’s appeal for imposing ban
on Masood Azhar at UNSC six times in a row for the past three and half years. For
all the grandiose claims of “dramatic
breaks in foreign policy” Chinese rise is certainly creating a massive
turbulence in the region and world at large. Unlike his predecessors who
stressed the need for “multipolarity”,
with China making accelerating strides in recent years, Xi announced his
keenness in pursuing Chinese interests. Xi declared “China is resolved to never give up its own legitimate rights and
interests and would never swallow the bitter fruit of damage to its own
interests”. China claims territories of 23 countries though it
has borders with 14 countries. Beijing’s new resolve might thus be inimical to several countries in
this region.
Cautioning that China should be battle ready, Xi stressed on
the need for greater innovation and modernization of armed forces. Xi advocated
that Hong Kong and Macau can govern by themselves but only “with patriots playing the principal role”.
He issued a premonitory warning to Taiwan saying that “We will never allow anyone, any organization or any political party, at
any time or in any form, to separate from any part of the constitution”. Xi
suppressed all kinds of social dissent or public unrest with an iron-hand and
imposed strict controls over the internet and censored media by constituting
National Security Commission. Xi thus had remarkable control over governance,
domestic security, handled foreign policy and steered the Middle Kingdom
undermining the collective leadership. Elaborating his vision for China, he
rejected liberal ideology of the west and reiterated he wouldn’t “mechanically copy political systems of other
countries”. Last year Communist party has endorsed him as Core leader,
elevating him to the position of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Xi outlined his vision for “new era” with an ultimate objective of
making China a “fully developed nation”
by 2049 which marks the centennial celebration of founding of People’s Republic
of China. Some experts argued that going by the pace of American isolationism
and global retraction, China might soon topple America and clinch the elevated
position much earlier.
Xi has been instrument in China’s phenomenal rise and in
recognition “Xi Jinping thought on
Socialism with Chinese characteristics for new era” is inserted in the
Constitution. The report titled as “secure
a decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects
and strive for the great success of socialism with Chinese characteristics for
a new era” is now part of the Constitution. With this unique distinction,
President Xi has reached the highest pinnacle of acclaim for having his name
and philosophy inserted into Constitution in five years, while Mao waited for
over two decades and Deng’s name was etched after his death. Jiang Zemin and Hu
Jintao’s doctrines are part of the constitution, but their names are not
included.
Modern Chinese history is broadly divided into three eras-
first era, dominated by Mao witnessed establishment of China as a communist
state. This was followed by era of economic reforms introduced by President
Deng Xiaoping and the current era where Xi has positioned China globally. Indeed,
Xi’s credibility, absolute consolidation of power reminds China of Mao Zedong
who held the authoritarian position till his death. By not announcing
successor, Xi has broken the party tradition and rejected the collective
leadership introduced by Deng. Two names- Guangdong party chief Hu Chunhua (54)
and Chen Miner (57) have been making rounds as possible successors. But both
are accommodated in party politburo instead of the apex PSC. At least one of
them might possibly be elevated in the next five years in PSC suggesting that
Xi might in fact continue after second term. Interestingly, Xi’s doctrine like
Mao’s red book will now be part of the academic curriculum any denigration of
his philosophy can invite communist party ire leading to grave consequences.
Xi’s pet project OBOR, proposed in 2013 is now elevated to
status of “flagship project” and
enshrined in Communist Party Constitution. Exalted emphasis on this official
policy might have far reaching geopolitical implications especially for India.
India has politely refused to be part of BRI citing violation of territorial
sovereignty. India’s rigid stance might create frictions between both
countries. Further, experts cautioned
that members of PSC are hawkish and perceived to be anti-India. China even
warned India to restrain contacts with the Dalai Lama. A day after the elevation of OBOR as Chinese
official policy, top three rating firms (Moody Corp, Standard & Poor’s,
Fitch) analyzed 68 OBOR partners of China. Of them, 27 partner countries are rated as
junk or below investment grade and 14 countries (including Afghanistan, Iran and Syria)
withdrew from ratings, and the list includes most corrupt countries. It is
found that most the OBOR routes pass through major conflict zones. Report
concluded that OBOR should be viewed as geopolitical project and “not an economic one in the sense that each
project will generate a return”.
Though China attained a new global stature of emerging
economic superpower, its collective attributes of overarching vision of
socialism, vehement indifference towards rules-based international order,
refusal to comply with tribunal’s ruling based on UN Convention on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS), declaration of Air Defense Identification (ADIZ) over east
China sea, coercing MNC’s into technological transfer will hamper its cohesive
functioning with comity of nations. With China’s meteoric rise opaque
governance, socialism and authoritarianism might evolve as guiding principles
challenging the existing World order.
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