After the ruthless Erdogan’s purge in
Turkey, authoritarian rise of President Xi, unflinching consolidation of power
by the Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) is all set to change the dynamic
of power play in Asia. Massive purge has been integral to events in Turkey and
China, where Xi through the anti-corruption drive targeted nearly 1.5 million
officials and political opponents. Unfoldment of similar pattern of events in
Saudi Arabia unleashed by crown prince portended advent of a new change in the
middle east region. Eventually, the three events on Nov 4th is all
set to usher Saudi into a new realm under the reigns of MbS.
On Nov 4th the anti-corruption
task force headed by MbS arrested 11 princes which included sons of late King
Abdullah, 30 former and current ministers and three heads of Saudi TV stations.
All their assets were attached, and wealth was frozen. Several other members of
the Royal family are held in Ritz Carlton hotel.
On the same day, Prime Minister of
Lebanon, Saad Hariri announced his resignation from Riyadh citing an
assassination bid by Hezbollah. Hariri, who is half Lebanese, raised in Saudi
with business interests in the kingdom, has been a puppet of the Royal Sauds. On
Nov 3rd, Hariri met Iranian delegation led by Al Akbar Velayati,
advisor to Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei but the next day he traveled to Saudi
and declared his reluctance to continue as Prime Minister. His resignation
which wasn’t preceded by any radical events raised curious doubts about the
major power play politics unleased by Saudi Arabia. Hariri, who took over the charge as Prime
Minister last year headed a government which included Hezbollah, political-military
outfit propped by Iran. A deal was struck for equitable distribution of power
in Lebanon. Accordingly, Michel Aoun, strong ally of Hezbollah, became the
President while Hariri backed by Riyadh, represented the Sunni interests. Days
into power, Hariri called for disarmament of Hezbollah, but the President
defended that it was necessary for security interests of Lebanon. Hariri slowly
lost control over budgetary issues and was forced to accede to Hezbollah’s
insistence of sending an ambassador to Syria. Saudi began to feel the crumbling
influence of Hariri. A stable government legitimized Hezbollah in Lebanon. By
ordering Hariri to step down, Saudi will create chaos in Lebanon as Hezbollah
will find it difficult to form coalition government. Hezbollah’s maneuver will
be restricted, and Iran would be held responsible for the unrest. Saudi earlier
legitimized its control over Lebanon through Hariri’s father Rafik who was
assassinated in 2005 by Hezbollah. Lebanon always served as a barometer for the
balance of powers operating the middle east region. Presently Iran, preoccupied
by battles in Syria and Yemen crisis, has failed to focus on the balance of
powers in Lebanon. MbS has rightly picked up the occasion to assert Saudi’s
influence in the region.
Worsening this crisis, a ballistic
missile launched from Yemen was intercepted at the King Khaled airport, Riyadh.
Though there were no reports of any causalities, this incident has opened yet
another new front for the Saudi to intensify its narrative against Iran. Saudi
unequivocally blamed Houthi rebels, who belong to Zyadi sect as Shia Muslims
and firmly believed that Iran offered military support. Reiterating that debris
of the missile confirmed Iran’s role, Saudi lost no time in upping the ante.
Riyadh remarked this as “blatant act of
military aggression by the Iranian regime” and that they reserved “right to respond”. After the missile
launch Saudi tightened blockade exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. Together,
these events changed the fragile balance of power in the Middle East.
MbS entered political arena in 2009
and steadily rose to power. With the
death of King Abdullah in January 2015, his father Mohammed Salman became the
King and MbS was appointed the Minister for Defense and head of newly
established Council for Economic and Development Affairs. Yemen crisis began to
escalate, and Iran backed Houthi rebels established control over the Northern
Yemen. Consequently, Saudi-backed President Abderabbo Mansour Hadi exiled to
Riyadh. In March 2015, MbS mobilized the coalition of GCC partners and launched
aerial strikes against Sanaa, becoming the
architect of Yemen war. By April
2015, as per royal decree, Muhammed bin Nayef became crown prince and MbS the
deputy crown prince. He even took charge of the Saudi Aramco, the Saudi Arabian
Oil and Natural Gas company. In Dec 2015, MbS stitched an Islamic Military
Alliance, a coalition of 34-Islamic (Sunni) nations, hailed as Islamic NATO, to
fight terrorism. This counter terrorism alliance, which elicited skepticism of
the global community soon found a commander in Pakistan’s Raheel Sharif.
Ambitious MbS wary of the fluctuating oil prices and Kingdom’ reliance on the
oil revenues, in April 2016 enunciated a vision 2030 plan, with an aim of
diversifying the economy. To steadily build, non-oil revenues, MbS cut back on
subsidies, introduced new taxes and austerity measures to slash down expenses.
He planned to create $2 trillion Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund by selling 5%
shares of Aramco. But the move was delayed. He introduced series of economic
reforms termed as the National Transformation Program and mooted the idea of “green cards” for non-Saudi residents.
Exuding keen interest in extricating social fabric of the Kingdom from the
clutches of religious restrictions, in September, MbS removed ban on female
drivers and permitted entry of women into stadiums and theatres. This
progressive move, which was in tune with aspirations of young Saudis received
appreciations from the West. Last month, calling for a moderate Islam, MbS
announced plans of constructing a new city NEOM along the Red Sea coast
connecting Jordan and Egypt. To prepare Saudi for the post oil-era, MbS
enunciated the new project worth $500 billion funded by Saudi Sovereign Fund
and international investors will focus on biotechnology, manufacturing,
entertainment and will be solely powered by Solar and Wind energy.
Unlike the earlier generation of Saudi Royals,
MbS lived through the most traumatic events in the Gulf ranging from the Kuwait
Invasion in 1991 is conversant of nitty-gritties of monarchy. MbS armed with
twin goals of overhauling the Kingdom’s economy and bolstering Saudi Arabia’s
position as a regional power against Iran, embarked on an ambitious plan of
consolidating power. To realize his objectives, MbS cemented relations with the
American establishment by establishing close personal relationship with
President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner who oversees the Middle East
affairs. A week after President Trump’s visit to Riyadh, MbS carried out a
diplomatic campaign to isolate Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism and
for its close ties with Iran. With the support of other Gulf countries, MbS
successfully reduced the influence of economically robust Qatar which pursued
an independent foreign policy. This event which divided the Gulf region has
substantially increased the leverage of Washington. Iran’s success in Syria and Iraq, growing
influence in Beirut and unremitting Houthi attacks worsened Saudi’s fears of
burgeoning Shiite dominance in the region. Instinctively, MbS favored closer
ties with Israel which considers Iran its mortal enemy. Even the new American
administration through Kushner facilitated ties between Arabs and Israelis. MbS
objective of scuttling Iran’s influence found consonance with the Trump’s
belligerence towards Iran. America’s tacit approval to MbS larger plans had
indeed emboldened him.
In the meanwhile, MbS surgically
eliminated obstacles for his political ascent. In June, he replaced Mohammed
bin Nayef, his elder cousin who was removed from the position of Crown Prince
on charges of morphine and cocaine addiction.
Now under the anti-corruption campaign, he ousted another rival to his
succession, Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, head of the Saudi Arabian National
Guard. Miteb who belongs to King Abdullah clan wielded considerable power.
Another Saudi Prince, Prince Mansour bin Muqrin, son of Prince Muqrin bin
Abdulaziz, former intelligence director and one-time crown prince is killed in
a helicopter clash. Similarly, another senior prince was reportedly killed in a
firefighting. Till now despite several disagreements various tribes of the
House of Saud, put up a show of unity to project strength. Now with the arrest
of various princes, MbS made several enemies. To prevent emergence of strong
military leadership, in Saudi armed forces are categorized into three different
institutions- the regular army, the national guard, security forces of Ministry
of Interior. Each of this is headed by different branch of House of Saud. Now,
with these divisions gone, MbS seems to be directly or indirectly controlling
the armed forces. In his ongoing purge, MbS targeted media heads and business
leaders like Alwaleed bin Talal and Bakr bin Laden who are accused of
embezzlements and operating though a nexus with bureaucrats. MbS thus
successfully eliminated any competing military, political, economic and
media-related power. Besides, MbS, ever since, his political positioning in
2015, began to portray Iran as an aggressor and the reason for the conflict in
the region. His massive purge which is believed to be carried with the support
of his father King Salman will now lead to an unnerving scenario of great power
consolidation in the hands of a single individual. Considering the radical
decisions made by MbS, West’s indifference to his repressive authoritarianism
might be dangerous. Till 2015, Saudi
never put boots on ground to battle its rival, but MbS changed the traditional
“checkbook diplomacy” of the Kingdom
and mobilized a coalition to take on the Houthi-Saleh duo controlling Sanaa.
While the battle for regional
supremacy between Saudi Arabia and Iran existed for several decades,
concentration of power in a single person steered by anti-Iran narrative may
spell disaster for the entire region. Already middle east is mired by several
fault lines and any trigger can simply blow the lid off the residual peace in
the region. After the resignation of Hariri, Saudi accused Lebanon of declaring
war against it and ordered its citizen to leave the country. Israel toed
similar line citing security issues and proclaiming that growing foot print of
Iran (with the near complete defeat of IS, Iran is planning to establish a land
corridor connecting Iran to Lebanon passing through Syria) and its allied
forces might pose danger to the region. Israel indicated previously that
Hezbollah in Lebanon are close to producing guided-precision missiles. In the
meanwhile, MbS purge created domestic chaos, though there is no report of an
organized resistance, oil prices have spiked. Interestingly, Trump’s endorsement
of MbS actions, have certainly strengthened Saudi Arabia’s heft in the region. Meanwhile
fears of Lebanon being pushed into chaos caused French President Macron rush to
Riyadh. Lebanon has been testing ground for Saudi-Iran co-existence and unusual
aggression of Saudi Arabia may push the region into a battle ground for Sunni
versus Shia conflict.
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