Fledging Islamic Militant theatres in Philippines

Martial Law was imposed in the Mindanao island of Philippines on May 24^th following eruption of intense clashes in Southern city of Marawi, the home province of President Rodrigo Duterte. After military launched surgical strikes against the militants belonging to Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and Maute Group, Duterte cut short his state trip to Russia as the situation spiraled into dangerous proportions. More than four weeks, fighting persists and dead toll is increasing. What began as an attempt to capture Isnilon Hapilon, leader of ASG who pledged allegiance to ISIS has now turned into an intense battle. Hapilon, is listed as World’s most wanted terrorist by US department, has $5 million bounty on his head. He abducted and killed Canadian business man in 2016, and was responsible for bombing campaign of Metro Manila. While the Maute Group was behind the Davoa City bombing, attacks in Butig and Lanao del Sur in Feb 2016. Both these Pro-ISIS militant groups operating in the Southern Island of Mindanao have joined hands with sole objective of turning the island into a caliphate. With Armed Forces of Philippines (AFP) intensifying combing operations in the islands, militants began occupying various buildings, prayer places, schools, hospitals using innocent people as human shields. As of now, martial law was imposed for 60 days. But in every likelihood, it would be extended.

Despite burgeoning militant attacks, Duterte predecessor Aquino down played the threat of ISIS in the country and assured that there were mercenaries trying to garner attention of ISIS. Though Duterte confirmed that Maute Group had links with ISIS and regained control over Butig in December 2016, he was obsessed with waging war against drug peddlers and traders later. His brutal crackdown on drug dealers coupled with mass encounters created a furor in International community and earned him severe rebuke of the West. Outspoken Duterte picked up a war of words and hurled expletives at President Obama over Human rights issue straining the bilateral ties. The US even deferred aid package of $430 million to Philippines (1). Eventually, Duterte have moved strategically closer to China indicating that foreign troops shouldn’t be interfering in the internal affairs. But now as the battle against Islamist militants showing no signs of remission, Duterte have reconciled and US is now involved in the battle.

Official reports of Philippines security agencies confirmed that fighters from Indonesia, Malaysia, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Chechnya were killed in combing operations of AFP indicating the extensive global connect of the militant groups operating in Mindanao. Moreover, with ISIS suffering huge losses in Syria and Iraq, various threat assessment reports of countries in the region indicated that ISIS is encouraging allegiance groups operating elsewhere to launch intense attacks in their home countries. Intelligence agencies have even linked the suicide bombing cum shooting attack in Jakarta, in January 2016 and June 2016 grenade attack in Malaysia to ISIS. It is believed that Singapore is on their radar (2).

Reports are increasingly pointing out that with ISIS retreating, fighters are coming back to South East which were earliest harbingers of Islamist militants. Home grown militant group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) of Indonesia allied to Al-Qaeda in 2002 engineered the deadliest attack in 2002 that killed 202 people in Bali. It was even reckoned as the IS of the South East. Indonesia with support of US dismantled JI through massive counter terror operations. Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the World and hence a likely breeding ground of radicalization. It is believed that IS sleeper cells are active in almost every province of Indonesia. 2015 Pew Survey suggested that 4% of Indonesian population has a favorable view of ISIS.  While the absolute numbers of Indonesian militants fighting in Syria in comparison to the population size is low, recent developments in the region portend a dangerous scenario. Experts suggest that the radicalized youth who couldn’t make to Syria are now keen on carrying out such struggle in their home lands. Now the emerging trends and targeting killings of Christians and moderate Muslims in Mindanao islands suggest a deepening ISIS imprint.

Though Philippines security agencies were cognizant of burgeoning impact of ISIS on the regional militant groups, officials exercised cautioned in acknowledging ISIS influence, fearing a negative impact on FDI flows.

Mindanao island has a history of rebellions dated back to pre-World war II era against Spanish, American and Japanese forces for a Bangsamoro Nation. It had been home of indigenous Muslims, Moro. But colonial American government promoted resettlement of Filipino Christians in this island who soon outnumbered the native population altering the demographic composition. Moros under the leadership of Nur Misuari formed the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) in 1969.  It was believed that President Ferdinand Marcos, then allowed the Christian settlers in the island to raise a militant group, Ilaga to fight Moros. Manili Massacre of 1971 carried out Ilaga led to killings of 65 Moro Muslim emerged as flash point and insurgency battles intensified between MNLF and Philippines government. Though both parties signed ceasefire agreement in 1976, President Marcos reneged and violence ensued. In 1978, Sheikh Salamat Hashim split from MNLF and formed Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) with an objective of establishing Islamic State. Later, successive regimes of Aquino and Ramos held several rounds of negotiations with MNLF and were at the brink of instituting the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). In 1991, a Muslim scholar, Aburajak Janjalani after his meeting with Osama bin Laden in 1991, started an extremist Islamic militant outfit, Abu Sayyaf group (ASG) recruiting radicalized MNLF cadres. President Estrada, launched a massive campaign against MILF wherein AFP, successfully decimated the militant camp in 2000. Having suffered severe causalities, leader Sheik Hashim fled to Malaysia. President Estrada then hoisted Philippines national flag in Mindanao Islands. Humiliated by defeat several Muslim militant groups launched series of attacks on National Capital Region on December 2000. Even ASG intensified its fight with Philippines government through random kidnappings, beheadings and attacks on government institutions. Between 2002 and 2015, Philippines and America launched counter terrorism offensives on militant groups as it was believed that Al-Qaeda linked ASG planned a part of 9/11 conspiracy. America launched Operation Enduring Freedom: Philippines, war against terror.

In 2013, MILF and other militant groups attempted to raise Bangsmaro Republic Flag over the city hall of Zamboanga and took several civilians as hostages. AFP launched joint combative with American forces leading to surrender of thousands of militants. Militant groups were convincingly defeated. Later Philippines government and MILF signed Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsmaro in 2014. Accordingly, militants are to transfer arms to a mutually agreed third party and government would reduce military troops in the region paving way for the creation of new Muslim Autonomous Entity Bangsmaro. Later in 2015, with the killing of most wanted Malaysian militant, Zulkifli bin Hir popular as Marwan in the area held by Bangsmaro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), who declared allegiance to ISIS, America called off its operations in Philippines. In 2016, when Duterte assumed power, reposing faith in the leadership MNLF and MILF promised to abide by peace agreement. But ASG, Maute group who declared allegiance to ISIS were on prowl launching attacks.  Unlike the militant groups MNLF and MILF, active militant groups in Mindanao now are radicalized; not interested in peace negotiations and compromise. Now reports emerge that ISIS keen on expanding its tentacles made Hapilon, Emir. Experts believe that in a bid to prove his allegiance, ASG might resort to ruthless violence and criminality.

Filipinos anticipated that Duterte with a strong-hold over administration and commitment towards federalism would make progress in fostering peace process. In fact, Maute group’s takeover of Butig town in November 2016 should have been a revelation. But Duterte shifted attention to drug trafficking and misjudged the pernicious offensives of ASG and Maute group. In the meanwhile, militant groups stockpiled an inexhaustible supply of firearms, other supplies needed for the offensive through series of extortions, ransom killings and kidnappings.

 As of now, in the battle between AFP and forces that sieged Marawi, over 250 militants, 65 soldiers and 62 civilians were killed and 34,000 locals fled the region. Though militant numbers have dwindled, leaders of South East Asia are alarmed by assault of the radicalized Islamist groups that paralyzed the Island.

The gradual transmogrification of resistance struggle into a battle for establishing a caliphate in the island has sent the region into tizzy. Indonesia which shares porous borders with the affected regions and faced the scourge of radicalization is now conducting joint military patrols with Malaysia and Philippines in the Sulu sea. Both Indonesia and Malaysia are increasingly concerned about the Marawi siege since fighters included their citizens. Duterte has now sought the assistance of US security personnel based in the military base near Zamboanga. Philippines have signed mutual defense agreement with US and Australia. With the battle to recapture Marawi entering second month, Australia has promised to deploy two P3 Orion Reconnaissance and Surveillance planes.

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