Prime Minister Modi’s successful engagement with President
Trump not only fizzled out the tenor of low expectations set by the foreign
policy observers but also imparted fresh energy into the Indo-US ties.
Reiterating trust in bilateral ties Trump endorsed that “it (bilateral relationship) has never been better than it is today”.
Indeed, the begrudging and unequivocal discomfiture of Global Times, official
mouth piece of China warning New Delhi of cozying up to US succinctly sums up
the new-found congruence between both countries. Just hours after the
Modi-Trump bilateral talks, peeving at New Delhi, Global Times remarked “In recent years, to ratchet up geopolitical
pressure on China, the US has cozied up to India. But India is not a close ally
of US like Japan or Australia. To assume a role of outpost country in the US’s
strategy to contain China is not in line with India’s interests. It could even
lead to catastrophic results. If India regresses from its non-alignment stance
and becomes a pawn for the US in countering China, it would be caught up in a
strategic dilemma and new geopolitical frictions will be triggered in South
Asia” (1). This threatening, condescending and contemptuous bickering of
China aptly enumerates the crux of recently concluded Modi-Trump engagement.
Unlike Modi’s previous visits to US, current trip was low on
tangible outcomes. A section of Indian community is visibly distraught for
failing to address issues like racial crimes against Indians, H1 B visa regime
etc. Setting course for propitious engagement, US administration approved sale
of 22 unarmed MQ-9B Guardian drones of over $2 billion to India strengthening
Indian navy’s surveillance capacity in the Indian Ocean Region, frequented by
Chinese submarines. Just hours before scheduled Modi-Trump meet, US designated
Syed Salauddin, Hizbul Mujahideen chief as specially designated global terrorist. Modi addressing a
round table meeting of top notch US business leaders besides apprising them of
slew of economic reforms undertaken by his regime stressed that “If America becomes stronger, India will be a
natural beneficiary”. Keen on preserving the depth of strategic commitment,
Indian side headed by NSA, Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary S Jai Shankar
strengthened Indian narrative with effective communication.
The Joint Statement:
Prosperity through partnership outlined expanse of strategic partnership, reaffirmed
priorities of bilateral ties and raised benchmarks. Congruence of both sides
especially on issues of combatting issues of terrorism helped India to
strengthen its narrative on Kashmir. Though India lobbied hard to nail Pakistan
at the BRICS-BIMSTEC meet 2016 for perpetrating cross-border terror, China
paralyzed New Delhi’s attempts. Unequivocal condemnation of Pakistan and its
terror out-fits by US has thus been a moral victory for India. Denouncing
Islamabad, both sides pledged to strengthen cooperation against groups like
Al-Qaeda, Jaish-e-Mohammed, LeT and D-company and decided to set up “a new
consultation mechanism on domestic and international terrorist designation
listing proposals”. This comes as a welcome relief to India whose attempts to
castigate Pakistan terror groups, was bulldozed repeatedly by China at the UN. US
is now losing patience with Pakistan and the deteriorating security profile of
Afghanistan is forcing Washington to harden its stance. Further both countries
in a veiled dig reinforced that nations should resolve territorial and maritime
dispute as per international law. In the process, US even endorsed India’s
stand on OBOR and emphasized that connectivity initiatives should abide by “responsible debt practices” respect the
territorial and integrity and sovereignty, address environmental concerns and
follow the rules. Resolving to enhance maritime strategic cooperation, both
countries evinced great interest in expanding the dimensions of shared maritime
objectives. Rejuvenated congruence between India and US irked Beijing. Further,
India’s renewed push in renovating trade ties with Kabul by air despite the
encumbrances and Islamabad’s defiance to permit two-transit of goods through
its borders hasn’t gone down well with China.
Assertive diplomatic outreach of Modi and India’s portrayal
of OBOR as opaque system, impinging the territorial sovereignty of nation has
become dagger in Chinese belly. Substantiating Indian observations, EU refused
to acknowledge Chinese claims of OBOR as development initiative. EU is now
reviewing anti-dumping trade laws with respect to China. New Delhi’s slow but
steady elevation in geopolitical arena essentially imperiled the “Sino-Centric Asia” doctrine diligently
nurtured by China ever since it emerged as the largest economy in Asia. Modi’s
triumphant engagement with Trump strengthened Beijing’s qualms of India as a
potential competitor. Simultaneously for Trump who found Beijing’s efforts
ineffective in reining on North Korea, comprehended strategic importance of
India in countering a rising China. Wary of these developments, Beijing peeved
at New Delhi with jingoistic remarks. Besides upping the outlandish rhetoric
Beijing revved up diplomatic escalations. Chinese transgression into India
along Sikkim border at Doka La shadowing Modi’s visit to US is thus an
unmissable and evocative message for India. Doka La adjoins Chumbi Valley, a
mountainous terrain in Tibet abutting India and Bhutan. But the S-shaped Chumbi
Valley is quite narrow and offers little room for developing robust military
infrastructure. If China wants to strike India it can’t effectively station
troops. On the contrary, Doka La is the only region where enjoys strategic and
terrain advantage in the entire stretch of 4,057km of Indo-China border.
Unlike Peoples Liberation Army (PLA)s frequent incursions
into India along LAC, which never lasted long and tensions dissipated with
official interventions, present transgression is a determined effort to send a
specific message to India. PLA even destroyed two Indian bunkers at Doka La
which is 5km from Siliguri Corridor (Chicken Neck), the jugular vein of India.
Siliguri corridor connects restive North East with rest of India and Nepal to
Bhutan. It is also trijunction of India, Bhutan, Bangladesh and extremely
critical for territorial integrity of India. By gaining access to Siliguri
Corridor, China can pull a plug on India’s accessibility to North East and can reach
the Northern periphery of Bangladesh. Consequently, China has suspended Kailash
Mansarovar yatra through Nathu La pass in Sikkim which was agreed in 2014 on President
Xi’s visit to India. As per MoU signed in 2014 China agreed to allow the yatra
that will pass through City of Shigatse in Tibetan Autonomous Region.
In fact, Siliguri Corridor and India with its strategic
geographical position are the vital missing links for the OBOR. Through CPEC
passing through legitimate Indian territory China envisaged to reach Indian
Ocean through Gwadar. Siliguri Corridor can be vital link in connecting Yunnan,
Myanmar and Irrawady Corridor. The recent transgression to Doka La is doubly
significant.
Bhutan and China have frosty relations ever since annexation
of Tibet. Bhutan and China have unresolved disputes involving 764 sq km land.
These include the 495 sq Km of Jakurlung and Pasamlung Valleys in north-central
region and the 269sq km of Doklam plateau in the west (2). Mao Zedong
enunciated that like palm, Tibet has five fingers-Ladakh, Sikkim, Nepal,
Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan (3). Bhutan used to be vassal state of China. China aggressively laid claims to Nepal,
Bhutan and Sikkim. During the annexation of Tibet, China occupied eight
Bhutanese enclaves in the West. Chinese aggression has forced Bhutan into
Indian embrace. In 1949 Bhutan signed Treaty
of Perpetual Peace and Friendship. Following this agreement, China began to
castigate India for treating Bhutan as “Protectorate”.
Brutal suppression of Tibetan resistance movement and onslaught on Tibetan
Buddhism prompted Bhutan to deepen relations with India. India subsequently
extended economic and military aid and established a 1000-strong Indian
Military Training Team (IMTRAT) to train the Bhutan Royal Army. India’s defeat
in 1962 Sino-Indian war raised serious doubts on Indian capacity to defend
itself let alone Bhutan. Bhutan began to silently reach out to China after India
took over Sikkim. From 1972 to 1984 India participated in Bhutan-China border
talks. In 1984 Bhutan started direct talks with China. In 1996 China offered a
“package deal” forgoing its claims over Jakurlung and Pasamlung in exchange for
Doklam plateau (which includes pastoral lands of Doklam, Charithang,
Sinchulumpa and Dramana).
Doklam plateau is of immense strategic significance as it is
tri-junction of India-China and Bhutan and very near to Siliguri corridor.
China desperately aspired to extend into the Doklam plateau since the Chumbi
valley in Tibet Autonomous Region which is S-Shaped is constrained and offers
less room for maneuverability. Cognizant of Doklam’s strategic importance,
India stationed sizeable IMTRAT. In the meanwhile, China intensified
infrastructure development in Chumbi Valley. But Bhutan was not ready to cede
Doklam as the rich pastoral region of the plateau is potential source of
livelihood and inimical to strategic interests of India. Bhutan is a land
locked country and India has been its largest trade partner and donor. In 1998,
China and Bhutan agreed to maintain status quo in the region by signing “Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and
Tranquility in the Bhutan-China Border Areas”. In 2007, Bhutan has replaced
the 1949 treaty with India-Bhutan Friendship treaty as Monarchy in Bhutan
slowly gave way to democracy.
Despite the 1998 treaty, China relentlessly built necessary
infrastructure nibbling into Doklam Plateau and expedited Charithang’s
connectivity (a region in Doklam plateau, adjoining Chumbi Valley) to Lhasa and
stealthily established several posts in Bhutanese territories reenacting a
South China Sea (SCS). The aggressive Chinese infrastructure development in the
region came to light when China honored a PLA Unit located near the Chumbi
Valley (5). This coveted appreciation
was in response to India’s move to raise 17 Mountain Strike Corps (an
additional troop strength of 90,274 dedicated to China), deployed 100 T-72 battle
tanks in Ladakh, flew a Sukhoi-30 fighter jet near Pasigath and activated
several Advance Landing Grounds in Arunachal Pradesh. China smartly sent a
message of preparedness to India by honoring PLA unit. Reciprocally China
inducted additional PLA troops to Chumbi Valley, deployed J-20 stealth fighters
and FC-1 Xiaolong light combat aircraft (LCA).
China’s transgression into Doka La was aimed at sending a
geopolitical message to warning India against deepening strategic and economic
cooperation with US. China’s statement defending Pakistan, “We oppose all forms of terrorism. We also
clearly stated we oppose linking terrorism to certain countries” after US
designated Syed Salahuddin as global Terrorist should be read along similar
lines. Indeed, Indo-Chinese ties have touched a new low after India refused to
stall Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang in April despite mounting Chinese protests.
Ever since, series of developments including India expediting infrastructure
development in Arunachal Pradesh, opening of Asia’s longest Dhola-Sadiya bridge
in Assam, obstinate reluctance to attend the BRI Summit made China listless. A
defiant China, accustomed to an accommodating India was irrevocably troubled by
its assertiveness.
Global Times outlandish rebuke of “by all necessary means” New Delhi must be “taught the rules” and “it is
not time for India to display arrogance towards china. India’s GDP is
one-quarter of China’s and its annual defence budget is just one-third. Having
a friendly relationship and cautiously handling border issues with China is its
best choice” summed up everything.
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