Tuesday 18 July 2017

Chinese belligerence meets Indian defiance


Vanquishing all hopes of a peaceful resolution of Sikkim border stand-off China bares it all now. Beijing’s belligerence is at all-time high. The prospect of two and a half front war, envisaged by Indian Army chief is more a reality now. Tensions across the Western and Eastern front have intensified. New Delhi is making all necessary preparations to meet all exigencies. Accordingly, government made necessary amends bestowing the financial authority to the Vice Chief of Army for procuring arms and ammunition. To maintain combat readiness for a short duration war, government has decided to let off the overriding the bureaucratic procedures. Besides, additional troops have been deployed across the borders. Now, an irrevocably miffed China, apart from escalating diplomatic rhetoric is attempting to strangulate India by creating domestic frictions.

Preposterous adventurism and coercive diplomacy of China are at work now. China deliberately raked up the situation making high-pitched noises coinciding Modi’s visit to the US warning New Delhi against levitating towards Washington. But India remained assertive, refused to withdraw its troops, stepped up its position to defend Bhutan, an act unanticipated by Beijing Mandarins. Embittered China, set preconditions for bilateral peace process, ramped up rhetoric and is now attempting to create internal rifts. Disgruntled by India’s reluctance to kowtow, China hatched a multi-pronged strategy to bring India to its heels.

China’s pro-active interest in India’s domestic affairs came into light after Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi met Chinese Envoy, Luo Zhaohui. Initial hushed silence donned by Congress about such a meeting, followed by a denial of the same and then a rather forcible and reluctant admission has raised doubts about plausible intentions. Reports of former NSA Shiv Shankar Menon facilitating Rahul Gandhi’s meeting with Bhutanese Ambassador and Chinese envoy and Chinese embassy pulling out the news from its website ignited sneaky suspicions. Sources now reveal that Chinese envoy Zhaohui, has recently met West Bengal Chief Minister Mamatha Banerjee, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, Former Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and his son Gaurav and Darjeeling District Magistrate. The long list of the so called “courtesy calls” by Chinese envoy at the height of border stand-off is intriguing and alarming. In the meanwhile, counsellor Dr. Jiang Yili, wife of Zhaohui has secretly flown to Bhutan to meet Queen Mother. Enigmatic and clandestine outreach of China towards select Indian politicians bespeaks of a Beijing’s iniquitous game plan. As of now all political parties extended firm support to government for seeking a diplomatic solution to current stand-off. But CPI (M)’s official mouth piece People Democracy blamed NDA government that siding with US has resulted in deterioration of ties with China. It reiterated that “It is important to keep in mind that Bhutan is main party of dispute. Bhutan is not ‘protectorate’ of India. It is better that India let Bhutan take the lead in negotiating with China on Doklam plateau and other disputed territories. India can lend support to Bhutan’s position” and warned “extraneous factors must not be allowed to interfere in the quest for better relations between the two neighbors in Asia”. The editorial swiftly raked all up the issues where India adopted an independent stand and made every attempt to safe guard its interests (India’s joint military exercises with the US, Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh, India’s refusal to attend BRI summit). CPI (M)’s reference to ‘Bhutan’ as a ‘protectorate of India’ ostensibly matched China’s perspective.

Post border stand-off, Global times, is making every attempt to ignite new domestic tensions through ill-disposed remarks. Beijing has been closely monitoring domestic developments in India. Prolonged Gorkhaland agitation caused partial closure of NH-10 highway that connects Sikkim to rest of India leading to a crisis of supplies. Sikkim Chief Minister Pawan Chamling, venting out his anger said, “the people of Sikkim didn’t merge the state with the Indian Union to become a sandwich between India and China”. He remarked that the state has lost Rs 60,000 crores in the past 30 years due to intermittent blockades of the highway. He pointed that Sikkim is a water reservoir of the nation and waters from the state flow into Bengal. Coming down heavily on the pattern of impromptu bandhs of Gorkhaland, he expressed support for a separate state of Gorkhaland and warned to take issue to Supreme Court.  Taking cue from this outburst, Global times launched a scathing attack on India accusing New Delhi of harboring regional hegemony ambitions and began fanning distrust. A day after Chamling’s public statement, the newspaper contended that it is considering using “tools” to create trouble in Sikkim and Bhutan to deter New Delhi from “provocations”. Besides it warned “Beijing should reconsider its stance over the Sikkim issue. Although China recognized India’s annexation of Sikkim in 2003, it can readjust its stance on the matter. There are those in Sikkim that cherish its history as a separate state and they are sensitive to how the outside world views the Sikkim issue. As long as there are voices in Chinese community supporting Sikkim’s independence, the voices with spread and fuel pro-independence appeals in Sikkim. With certain conditions, Bhutan and Sikkim will see strong anti-India movements, which will affect India’s already turbulent north east and rewrite southern Himalayan geopolitics”. While it is an established fact that China offers refuge, finances, arms, and weaponry to North East militants this blatant warning confounds India’s worst fears. These outright threats signify, Beijing’s efforts to destabilize India. India’s steady rise is unsettling an increasingly assertive and aggressive China. India’s uncompromising opposition to BRI has touched Beijing’s raw nerves.

In any case this time around, unremitting unrest in Darjeeling stoked by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamatha Banerjee’s order of imposing Bengali on Gorkhas has ignited the latent movement for an independent Gorkhaland.  Government should make a cautious intervention before tension flares up and pose grievous threat to peace and stability of the region. Interestingly, while China is predisposed to change its stance on Sikkim, India is expected to honor the “One China policy”. China incessantly warns India from playing the “Dalai lama card”, but finds it convenient to stoke independence movement in Sikkim.

Now, Global Times is preparing ground to drive wedge between India and Bhutan saying that “through unequal treaties, India has severely jeopardized Bhutan’s diplomatic sovereignty and controls its national defence”. Over years, China managed to pull away South Asian countries Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal from Indian sphere. It is now heavily investing in Bangladesh. But Beijing failed to establish diplomatic ties with Bhutan. China is now determined to trample long-standing Indo-Bhutanese ties and all these calumnious accusations of Global Times, amply ascertains Beijing’s intentions. In the same editorial, China accused India of “trampling” Panchasheel principles. Ironically, China’s flagrant abnegation of these lofty principles propounded by India led to devastating 1962 Indo-China war.

Upping ante against India, Long Xingchun, Director at Centre for Indian Studies, in his article in Global Times said “Even if India were requested to defend Bhutan’s territory, this could only be limited to its established territory not disputed territory. Otherwise, under India’s logic, if the Pakistan government requests, a third country’s army can enter the area disputed by India and Pakistan, including India-controlled Kashmir”. Incidentally, China’s reference to Kashmir and willingness to intervene Indo-Pakistan bilateral issue comprehends the narrative of Beijing insinuating “iron brother” to ramp up insidious activities in the valley. It is worth noting that while many countries severely condemned terror dastardly attacks on Amarnath Yatris, China maintained silence. Instead it rebuked India for escalating terror across LoC as Pakistan suffered causalities in an exchange of firing to Islamabad’s ceasefire violations. With respect to the current border impasse, Chinese analyst said “China can show the region and the international community or even the UNSC its evidence to illustrate China’s position. It highlights China’s sincerity and effort to maintain peace as a responsible power. It will never resort to force till it is the last choice”. Intriguingly, China’s assurances of maintaining peace as responsible power might have few or no takers for it notoriously referred to as big bully of Asia. Beijing’s blatant disapproval of PCA (Permanent Court of Arbitration) verdict has proved its defiance to internationally established rules beyond an iota of doubt.

China’s insatiable appetite for territorial expansion is well known. Over years China has been skillfully penetrating and nibbling away territories without firing a single bullet. Beijing having mastered selective apportioning of facts and rewriting history has resorted to a land grab termed as “Salami slicing” by experts. China has indeed laid claims to territories in 23 countries though it shares borders with 14 countries. The total size of Beijing’s claims exceeds the size of modern China. Most of the claimed are dated back to several centuries and have unsubstantiated historical precedents.  The list of claims are truly appalling and exasperating as well. The article refers to a 1418 map that proves China discovered America much before Columbus. Suffice to say that this quintessential expansion spree of China sums up the dubiety of Beijing’s claims in the Doklam stand- off too.

In 2003, India and China recognized the Special Representative (SR) Mechanism to resolve boundary Issues. In 2012, SR decided that border dispute of the trilateral junction would be resolved after consulting all the three parties.  But now China deliberately developed a narrative projecting the current stand-off as Sino-Bhutan bilateral issue undermining the sanctity of SR mechanism and portraying India as an aggressor.

With no solution in sight to Doklam stand-off, a commentary in Xinhua Agency, added yet another dimension to threaten India by calling Ladakh as a disputed region. Xinhua is part of Chinese government and affiliated to State Council, China’s Cabinet. While welcoming foreign secretary Jai Shankar’s remarks at Singapore that “India and China should not let differences become disputes”, Xinhua said “China has made it clear that there is no room for negotiations on this incident and India must withdraw its border crossing-troops from Doklam. For China, border line is the border line”. Though India incessantly stressed on continued use of diplomatic channels, Doklam stand-off has become a prestige issue for China who refuses to budge from current stand-off. Situation has reached alarming proportions that “both sides can’t afford to be regarded a loser”. NSA Ajit Doval will be traveling to Beijing for the multilateral security dialogue under BRICS on July 27th and 28th to initiate diplomatic negotiations. But Chinese analyst Hu Shisheng, Director of Institute of South and South East Asian and Oceanic studies said “this kind of confrontation in border areas will continue until climate becomes more and more inhuman. Finally, because of the weather, Indian troops may pull back, both sides may pull back”. But clearly, there seems to be no end to this stand-off. Indian Army officers observed that Indian troops have been defending the most inhospitable Siachen Glaciers of 19000ft stationing troops even through winter at Doklam perched at lower altitude may not be difficult. Implying that India would continue to dig in its heels at Doklam.

Clearly, whimpers of desperation, exasperating recapitulations of past events and brewing unrest in certain parts of country impel intervention of the government immediately. Chinese machinery is closely monitoring internal political and regional squabbling within in India. India now faces the twin challenges of safe guarding boundaries against external threats and buttressing domestic security network to maintain peace and harmony within. With China declaring parts Indian territory country as disputed regions to suit its narratives and threatening India to fall in line, India must not hesitate to use the Dalai Lama Card as Tibetan annexation gravely distorted the Indian security profile.

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