With Prime Minister Narendra Modi, all set to travel to visit
US for the fifth time to meet President Trump, intense speculations await the
future of Indo-US relations. Indo-US relations reached hilt in 2015 when both
nations signed “Joint Strategic Vision
for the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean Region” fortifying bilateral ties. Incidentally,
the personal chemistry and bonhomie between Modi and President Obama
triumphantly glued the relations between the “World’s two largest democracies”.
Later with inking of LEMOA in 2016 both sides significantly expanded the scope
of naval cooperation. Undeniably 123 Agreement in 2008 and Joint Strategic
Vision of 2015, have infused new momentum and depth into Indo-US relations. But
with US foreign policy currently undergoing a massive churn under President
Trump, Modi is faced with a daunting challenge of working out renewed bilateral
paradigm.
Unprecedented geopolitical revelations have changed the
contours of World order. Erstwhile dominance of a lone super power is now
making way for multipolar world. These changes superbly coincided with change
of leadership in the US. Ever since assuming Presidency, Trump has navigated
uncharted paths that were antithetical to basic precincts of the US. Riding on
doctrine of “American First”, Trump pulled US out of the TPP (Trans Pacific
Partnership) leaving all other nations in lurch. As President Elect, irked
China due to a telephonic conversation with Taiwanese President, a move hailed
by strategic experts as tough posturing. But soon patched up things with
Beijing a promise of honoring “One China
Policy”. His infamous telephone
diplomacy marred relations with Mexico and Australia, listless executive orders
over travel bans scuttled ties with Muslim nations. In the meanwhile, Trump’s
diplomatic messaging to anxious heads of states most of them allies like Japan,
Canada, Mexico, UK, Germany, and adversaries like China who made a bee-line to
White House surprised strategic experts. Intriguingly, baring Japan leaders of
friendly European leaders received a lukewarm response. Though Trump accused
China of “raping American economy”
and “currency manipulator”, he
extended a warm reception to President Xi by hosting him at his private resort
Mar-a-Lago, Florida. In fact, Trump ordered air strikes against Syria in
response to Chemical weapons usage at a time he was hosting President Xi in US.
Emboldened by this bluster, he unleashed MOAB (mother of all bombs) against IS
(Khorasan) in Afghanistan. Impromptu air strikes against Syria widened the
schisms between US and Russia while heightened military action reflected
misplaced priorities of Trump administration. These audacious actions of Trump
were in sharp contrast to his campaign call of softening stance toward Russia
and condemnation of Obama administration’s military intervention in Syria.
Interestingly, Trump’s appeasement of China has close underpinnings to his
business establishment. American media agencies indicated that Trump’s placatory
tone in early February can be traced to obtaining approval for Trump trademarks
in China. His overt friendly gestures towards President Xi was an outcome of minor
trade concessions offered by Beijing in financial sector investments and US
beef exports. In fact, both China and Saudi Arabia found a way with Trump by
cultivating back channel contact with son-in-law Jared Kushner. Kushner and
Ivanka Trump have huge business interests in China.
Trump’s offer of jointly working with Sunni-NATO to crush
terrorism was catalyzed by the massive $110 billion military deals between US
and Saudi Arabia. Enamored by the robust deal with Saudi Arabia, Trump joined
the Saudi-led chorus in isolating Qatar for which he even claimed the credit. A
week later Qatar and US signed $12 billion agreement for purchase of 36 F-15
fighter jets. This deal supposed to create 60,000 US jobs in 42 states
eventually forced the US defense department to issue a stinging rebuke to Saudi
Arabia questioning the justification for imposing embargo on Qatar. Trump’s
actions and tone have so far indicated that he is highly transactional and that
state and defense departments are following different tacks. Till now US
presidents irrespective of party affiliations, religiously followed well-laid
out foreign policy but Trump refuses to abide orthodox policy frameworks.
Interestingly while Western media left no stone unturned in drawing parallels
between Modi and Trump labeling them as Uber nationalists. With time, Modi
acclaimed reputation of a statesman while Trump’s insinuating volte-face
posited him as a maverick.
Modi upcoming meeting with Trump is complicated by his
ludicrous allegations of developing countries like India benefitting by Paris
Climate Accord while announcing America’s withdrawal from the 2015 treaty. His
infamous decision not only put America together with two other countries that
refused to sign the accord- Nicaragua and Syria but also elicited scorn from
foreign policy observers who sharply criticized the irresponsible remarks of
Trump. While justifying his decision, Trump said, “For example, under the agreement, China will be able to increase
emissions by a staggering number of years-13. They can do whatever they want
for 13 years. Not us. India makes its participation contingent on receiving
billions and billions and billions of dollars in foreign aid from developed
countries”. He added, “China will be
allowed to build hundreds of additional coal plants. So we can’t build the
plants, but they can according to this agreement. India will be allowed to
double its coal production by 2020. Think of it: India will be allowed to
double its coal production. We’re supposed to get rid of ours. Even Europe is allowed
to continue construction of coal plants”. By singling out India, Trump had
immodestly undermined India’s painstaking efforts of complying with the targets
set by Paris Accord. Issues of climate change, conservation of nature have been
on the top tier of Modi’s agenda who co-authored a book, “Convenient Action-Continuity for
Change” which was released along sidelines of Paris Summit. Modi’s
concerted push for renewables and launch of International Solar Alliance (ISA)
are testimony to India’s towards Climate change. Hence unlike in the past under
Trump, India can’t jointly work together on climate change. But both leaders
can enhance cooperation on issues like space exploration, counter terrorism,
intelligence sharing, cyber security, security realm and energy cooperation.
Amidst wide spread concerns of personal rapport between both
countries, ongoing geopolitical flux impels both countries to expand strategic
cooperation. Though India is rapidly forging ties with like-minded countries to
counter the overwhelming hegemony of China, in the region, US concurrence is
inevitable for any middle-countries grouping. World is privy to the fact that
inability of Obama administration furthered strategic rise of China. Now,
Trump’s reluctance to assume the traditional role of World’s policeman has
weakened American stature. Even Obama’s doctrine of pivot to Asia paralyzed. Dragon’s
strangle hold had engulfed India’s neighboring countries and all the South East
Asian countries have drifted into Chinese Orbit. Burgeoning Chinese aggression
is inimical to India. India and US share common concerns with respect to China.
India should thus, aspire to strengthen strategic cooperation with US to have
greater command over Indian Ocean Region (IOR). To play the role of security
provider in the IOR and to mitigate the looming threats of belligerent neighbors
on both fronts, India must upgrade military capabilities. US is now India’s
largest arms supplier. With India’s arms requirements set to grow Trump should
be happy about upcoming arms deals. In this regard, India should push offer of
co-production, which can not only create jobs in US but also fits Modi’s “Make
in India” initiative. Already, Trump’s press secretary Sean Spicer hinted
possible dovetailing of “Make America Great Again” and “Make in India”. Unlike
European countries, India is not dependent on US for security issues. Since
India will pay up for its security, Trump should have no qualms in expanding
security cooperation.
Though Trump administration announced hardening of stance
towards Pakistan and discussed expansion of drone attacks and withholding aid
and downgrading its status as a major non-NATO ally, US officials are skeptical
about the plausibility of such an approach. India should wait for situation to
unfold with bated breath since Trump is a manifestation of unpredictability.
Presently, Trump’s quick turnarounds, double standards,
ruthless deal making obsession is disrupting the World order with America’s
close allies forced to reconsider their relations with the US under him. White
House staff is working overtime to defend the irresponsible statements of the
President. Crucial vacancies are not yet filled. Administration is not yet
even-keeled. The divergence between the state and defense establishment is
widening with every passing day. Meanwhile, reports of Trump camp’s alleged
links with Russia and other scandals is taking away the focus of White House
from core issues. With deep state mulling the prospect of instituting serious
investigations against Trump, his term might be marred with serious
disruptions. Modi should effectively seek cooperation in areas of mutual interest
that are in line with whims of exceptionally transactional Trump. But, Modi
must reach out to American business community, Indian Diaspora and other
like-minded entities for building long term strategic partnership.
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